Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Britain remains totally split on BREXIT: 44% think it was righ

2

Comments

  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB Maybe but Chinese investors can look elsewhere too, perhaps even to London

    Specifically for exports the investment will all be domestic to China, or in a lot of cases foreign companies investing in Chinese factory capacity. Japan is a huge investor in China, if Trump put up trade barriers those Japanese comapneos would begin to invest in factory capacity in SE-Asia not the UK or anywhere in Europe really.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Scott_P said:

    Why ARE the 'winners' such a bunch of whining babies?

    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/816360705351942145

    too impatient to wait another 90 or so days!
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited January 2017
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Odd how so many PB Tories - especially the ones that used to love Cameron (TSE excepted) have turned into Trump's biggest supporters since November 8th.

    Of course Trump is being discussed, he's about to become President. In terms of support, I haven't seen the same huge shift in opinion since the election.
    I'm not complaining about Trump being discussed - he's the leader of the free world after all. I'm observing how many PBers have done a 'Paul Ryan' and gone from being critical of Trump during the campaign, to very supportive post November 8th.
    As always your simpleton nature mistakes interest for support. It's very interesting to see how Trump is bullying US companies into staying in the US, whether or not it will prove to be a sustainable strategy remains to be seen. It has implications for the UK as well which is home to several US banks which carry out significant amounts of Eurodollar trade, Trump may look to bully them into coming home as well, especially if Brexit makes trading conditions here less favourable in the short term.
    You've no business to be talking about anyone having a simpleton nature given that you've made the leap that production = jobs in regard to Trump's deals.
    In the short term it will mean jobs, and for Trump the short term is really all that matters.
    You assume that automation of jobs in deals such as the Carrier one isn't going to happen before 2020.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Odd how so many PB Tories - especially the ones that used to love Cameron (TSE excepted) have turned into Trump's biggest supporters since November 8th.

    Of course Trump is being discussed, he's about to become President. In terms of support, I haven't seen the same huge shift in opinion since the election.
    I'm not complaining about Trump being discussed - he's the leader of the free world after all. I'm observing how many PBers have done a 'Paul Ryan' and gone from being critical of Trump during the campaign, to very supportive post November 8th.
    As always your simpleton nature mistakes interest for support. It's very interesting to see how Trump is bullying US companies into staying in the US, whether or not it will prove to be a sustainable strategy remains to be seen. It has implications for the UK as well which is home to several US banks which carry out significant amounts of Eurodollar trade, Trump may look to bully them into coming home as well, especially if Brexit makes trading conditions here less favourable in the short term.
    You've no business to be talking about anyone having a simpleton nature given that you've made the leap that production = jobs in regard to Trump's deals.
    In the short term it will mean jobs, and for Trump the short term is really all that matters.
    You assume that automation of jobs in deals such as the Carrier one isn't going to happen before 2020.
    It would be smart for Trump to ensue that it doesn't. Who knows what the deal was.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,011
    MaxPB A significant number of western and particularly British companies are now Chinese owned and in terms of exports China is one of the world's largest growing markets, so tit for tat trade war between China and the US would lead to vacancies for exporters from other nations
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Odd how so many PB Tories - especially the ones that used to love Cameron (TSE excepted) have turned into Trump's biggest supporters since November 8th.

    Of course Trump is being discussed, he's about to become President. In terms of support, I haven't seen the same huge shift in opinion since the election.
    I'm not complaining about Trump being discussed - he's the leader of the free world after all. I'm observing how many PBers have done a 'Paul Ryan' and gone from being critical of Trump during the campaign, to very supportive post November 8th.
    As always your simpleton nature mistakes interest for support. It's very interesting to see how Trump is bullying US companies into staying in the US, whether or not it will prove to be a sustainable strategy remains to be seen. It has implications for the UK as well which is home to several US banks which carry out significant amounts of Eurodollar trade, Trump may look to bully them into coming home as well, especially if Brexit makes trading conditions here less favourable in the short term.
    You've no business to be talking about anyone having a simpleton nature given that you've made the leap that production = jobs in regard to Trump's deals.
    In the short term it will mean jobs, and for Trump the short term is really all that matters.
    You assume that automation of jobs in deals such as the Carrier one isn't going to happen before 2020.
    Construction, maintenance and such are all jobs. Skilled jobs too. Anyway, as I said in the original post, it's the optics that really matter. Ford getting shat on by Trump and thrn turning around and cancelling investment in Mexico in favour of domestic investment is a huge win for Trump. Whether or not that is sustainable (i.e jobs) remains to be seen. I said as much in my earlier post but you either didn't read or didn't understand and jumped to your own conclusions to suit your own busted narrative.
  • Options
    Have we done this?

    Ford has said it will cancel a $1.6bn (£1.3bn) plant it planned to build in Mexico and instead extend operations at its factory in Michigan.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38497898
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    Construction, maintenance and such are all jobs. Skilled jobs too. Anyway, as I said in the original post, it's the optics that really matter. Ford getting shat on by Trump and thrn turning around and cancelling investment in Mexico in favour of domestic investment is a huge win for Trump. Whether or not that is sustainable (i.e jobs) remains to be seen. I said as much in my earlier post but you either didn't read or didn't understand and jumped to your own conclusions to suit your own busted narrative.

    It's not a 'huge win for Trump' if he doesn't bring back the jobs that were lost - that was pretty much the basis of his campaign, and why so many in the Rust Belt voted him. Immediate term headlines may garner support now (although his approvals are pretty dire right now). But as these deals unfold over the next few years, and people find out all the old jobs might not be becoming back (indeed some of those saved may be getting automated anyway) Trump may well face the backlash from voters who feel that these deals promised them one thing, but produced a totally different outcome to the one they thought was going to happen.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited January 2017
    Trump's argument that , "if you want to make a profit here, make your product here" is just a variation on "if you make your profits here, pay your taxes here."

    Both arguments come from the same place - international corporations exploiting free trade/globalisation to the detriment of the local population, whether via employment or via funding for public services.

    How much UK corporation tax do German car manufacturers pay, or do we only aim fire at US companies?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited January 2017
    Fake news wasn’t the biggest media problem of 2016, It's nothing new, and it didn't swing the election. ...from left leaning Vox.

    It was Clinton's emails wot done it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdsj-PIqR0g
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    dr_spyn said:
    Xenophobia is a winning , powerful formula. It just is.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, has anyone been following the "Amazon Go" concept? It's a grocery store which uses advanced sensors so you literally just back your trolley (or your bag), and you automatically get billed. Because labour is 35-40% of grocery stores non-product costs this has the fantastic ability to (a) increase Amazon's profits, (b) lower the cost of (and time required to) grocery shop, and (c) eliminate millions of low wage jobs.

    It will be interesting to see how Trump responds to this. (He is not a big Amazon fan generally.)

    Sounds like a bit like Tesco's 'scan as you shop'

    http://www.tesco.com/scan-as-you-shop/
    No, there's no scanning. It's all entirely automated. You simply put products in the bag you brought.
    Can't see it catching on. Half of the fun of retail is staff interaction.

    In my old retail consulting job some LSS-trained colleagues used to marvel at mates who had 7 duplicates of each item of clothing. Others marvelled at lack of fashion imagination.

  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, has anyone been following the "Amazon Go" concept? It's a grocery store which uses advanced sensors so you literally just back your trolley (or your bag), and you automatically get billed. Because labour is 35-40% of grocery stores non-product costs this has the fantastic ability to (a) increase Amazon's profits, (b) lower the cost of (and time required to) grocery shop, and (c) eliminate millions of low wage jobs.

    It will be interesting to see how Trump responds to this. (He is not a big Amazon fan generally.)

    Sounds like a bit like Tesco's 'scan as you shop'

    http://www.tesco.com/scan-as-you-shop/
    No, there's no scanning. It's all entirely automated. You simply put products in the bag you brought.
    Can't see it catching on. Half of the fun of retail is staff interaction.
    It could work in reverse, so when a high-value customer walks through the door they can be pounced on by salespeople.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited January 2017
    Re Amazon Go....do we know the tech behind how they make it work?

    I know a number of years ago Walmart thought that RFID on each item would deliver this concept, but found that it was too expensive at the time.

    I know in the promo video they show a nice customer pick an item up, decide actually no I don't want it and put it back and not be charged when they walk out....will be interesting to know how the system works when shitty customers put back in the wrong place etc.

    Also, I presume it doesn't work for loose items or it is trust based.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Re Amazon Go....do we know the tech behind how they make it work?

    I know a number of years ago Walmart thought that RFID on each item would deliver this concept, but found that it was too expensive at the time.

    I know in the promo video they show a nice customer pick an item up, decide actually no I don't want it and put it back and not be charged when they walk out....will be interesting to know how the system works when shitty customers put back in the wrong place etc.

    Also, I presume it doesn't work for loose items or it is trust based.

    Felica chips are manufactured for less than a penny, Amazon could just get that off the shelf, so to speak.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited January 2017
    @MaxPB....by interesting to know if Walmart are currently revisit this. With they massive buying power you would think it would be possible for them to scale such an operation.

    They obviously already have systems to tag the palettes being shipped from distribution centres to stores, but not at the individual items level.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    Re Amazon Go....do we know the tech behind how they make it work?

    I know a number of years ago Walmart thought that RFID on each item would deliver this concept, but found that it was too expensive at the time.

    I know in the promo video they show a nice customer pick an item up, decide actually no I don't want it and put it back and not be charged when they walk out....will be interesting to know how the system works when shitty customers put back in the wrong place etc.

    Also, I presume it doesn't work for loose items or it is trust based.

    I thought the idea was you walk your trolley through an archway as you exit the shop, and that scans your entire trolley.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited January 2017
    RobD said:

    Re Amazon Go....do we know the tech behind how they make it work?

    I know a number of years ago Walmart thought that RFID on each item would deliver this concept, but found that it was too expensive at the time.

    I know in the promo video they show a nice customer pick an item up, decide actually no I don't want it and put it back and not be charged when they walk out....will be interesting to know how the system works when shitty customers put back in the wrong place etc.

    Also, I presume it doesn't work for loose items or it is trust based.

    I thought the idea was you walk your trolley through an archway as you exit the shop, and that scans your entire trolley.
    Not for Amazon Go....it shows it works with people simply picking things off the shelf and putting it in their bag and walking out. No trollies or archways as such. And all items are automatically charged to your Amazon account with no payment in store.

    I would presume that it is RFID (or similiar) chip based technology, but it isn't clear from the promo demo.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    RobD said:

    Re Amazon Go....do we know the tech behind how they make it work?

    I know a number of years ago Walmart thought that RFID on each item would deliver this concept, but found that it was too expensive at the time.

    I know in the promo video they show a nice customer pick an item up, decide actually no I don't want it and put it back and not be charged when they walk out....will be interesting to know how the system works when shitty customers put back in the wrong place etc.

    Also, I presume it doesn't work for loose items or it is trust based.

    I thought the idea was you walk your trolley through an archway as you exit the shop, and that scans your entire trolley.
    Not for Amazon Go....it shows it works with people simply picking things off the shelf and putting it in their bag and walking out. No trollies or archways.

    I would presume that it is RFID (or similiar) chip based technology, but it isn't clear from the promo demo.
    Well that's what the RFID chip will be for, they'd get scanned remotely on the way out. Payment and honesty is the issue.
  • Options
    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956

    Re Amazon Go....do we know the tech behind how they make it work?

    I know a number of years ago Walmart thought that RFID on each item would deliver this concept, but found that it was too expensive at the time.

    I know in the promo video they show a nice customer pick an item up, decide actually no I don't want it and put it back and not be charged when they walk out....will be interesting to know how the system works when shitty customers put back in the wrong place etc.

    Also, I presume it doesn't work for loose items or it is trust based.

    You'd need a minimal level of staffing to unjumble items I suppose.

    As far as loose stuff goes, self-checkouts seem happy to do that on a trust basis as we are now. In the Amazon supermarket I guess you'd weigh the items and a sticky label with an RFID tag would be printed.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited January 2017
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Re Amazon Go....do we know the tech behind how they make it work?

    I know a number of years ago Walmart thought that RFID on each item would deliver this concept, but found that it was too expensive at the time.

    I know in the promo video they show a nice customer pick an item up, decide actually no I don't want it and put it back and not be charged when they walk out....will be interesting to know how the system works when shitty customers put back in the wrong place etc.

    Also, I presume it doesn't work for loose items or it is trust based.

    I thought the idea was you walk your trolley through an archway as you exit the shop, and that scans your entire trolley.
    Not for Amazon Go....it shows it works with people simply picking things off the shelf and putting it in their bag and walking out. No trollies or archways.

    I would presume that it is RFID (or similiar) chip based technology, but it isn't clear from the promo demo.
    Well that's what the RFID chip will be for, they'd get scanned remotely on the way out. Payment and honesty is the issue.
    The question is can they do their cost effectively. Although the chips might be fractions of a cent, who puts the chips on the products and how. I think that is the issue Walmart ran into, despite their massive buying power the big brands went do it yourself if you want it done, we aren't going to alter our production facilities just for you....which then becomes an addition cost in a cut throat business, especial at scale and if you have to deal with 10,000's of different products.

    I am going to guess Amazon Go test store looks very small and so only contain a very small number of different products / ones easy to add tags to.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Re Amazon Go....do we know the tech behind how they make it work?

    I know a number of years ago Walmart thought that RFID on each item would deliver this concept, but found that it was too expensive at the time.

    I know in the promo video they show a nice customer pick an item up, decide actually no I don't want it and put it back and not be charged when they walk out....will be interesting to know how the system works when shitty customers put back in the wrong place etc.

    Also, I presume it doesn't work for loose items or it is trust based.

    I thought the idea was you walk your trolley through an archway as you exit the shop, and that scans your entire trolley.
    Not for Amazon Go....it shows it works with people simply picking things off the shelf and putting it in their bag and walking out. No trollies or archways.

    I would presume that it is RFID (or similiar) chip based technology, but it isn't clear from the promo demo.
    Well that's what the RFID chip will be for, they'd get scanned remotely on the way out. Payment and honesty is the issue.
    The question is can they do their cost effectively. Although the chips might be fractions of a cent, who puts the chips on the products and how. I think that is the issue Walmart ran into, despite their massive buying power the big brands went do it yourself if you want it done, we aren't going to alter our production facilities just for you....which then becomes an addition cost in a cut throat business, especial at scale and if you have to deal with 10,000's of different products.

    I am going to guess Amazon Go test store looks very small and so only contain a very small number of different products / ones easy to add tags to.
    Amazon probably have more scale than WM for packaging.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    You know for someone who isn't even President yet Trump has had a pretty good day. First the Ford decision and secondly talking the Republican Congressional party out of being really stupid in respect of the ethics committee.

    Are we once again underestimating him?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,031

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Re Amazon Go....do we know the tech behind how they make it work?

    I know a number of years ago Walmart thought that RFID on each item would deliver this concept, but found that it was too expensive at the time.

    I know in the promo video they show a nice customer pick an item up, decide actually no I don't want it and put it back and not be charged when they walk out....will be interesting to know how the system works when shitty customers put back in the wrong place etc.

    Also, I presume it doesn't work for loose items or it is trust based.

    I thought the idea was you walk your trolley through an archway as you exit the shop, and that scans your entire trolley.
    Not for Amazon Go....it shows it works with people simply picking things off the shelf and putting it in their bag and walking out. No trollies or archways.

    I would presume that it is RFID (or similiar) chip based technology, but it isn't clear from the promo demo.
    Well that's what the RFID chip will be for, they'd get scanned remotely on the way out. Payment and honesty is the issue.
    The question is can they do their cost effectively. Although the chips might be fractions of a cent, who puts the chips on the products and how. I think that is the issue Walmart ran into, despite their massive buying power the big brands went do it yourself if you want it done, we aren't going to alter our production facilities just for you....which then becomes an addition cost in a cut throat business, especial at scale and if you have to deal with 10,000's of different products.

    I am going to guess Amazon Go test store looks very small and so only contain a very small number of different products / ones easy to add tags to.
    It's been a fair few years since I coded for them, but RFID chips had a fair few limitations such as range, disruption and collisions. As always with such systems, how it fails is important, especially as such failures could be potential exploits.

    Then again, Amazon are fairly good at core tech (and this is core tech), so maybe they'll be able to get it working reliably. But any betting that the costs of any problems are pushed onto the consumer?

    Mind you, I half hope they do not: it will make supermarket trips even more soulless.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    Not for Amazon Go....it shows it works with people simply picking things off the shelf and putting it in their bag and walking out. No trollies or archways as such. And all items are automatically charged to your Amazon account with no payment in store.

    I would presume that it is RFID (or similiar) chip based technology, but it isn't clear from the promo demo.

    I've read that it is mostly done with computer vision. It doesn't have to be perfect, if the mistakes are less costly than staff it is a win, and most customers will be honest so they won't be trying to trick the system.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,031
    Off-topic:

    Quite nice if you're into Star Wars: an obituary for Leia Organa.

    https://mobunited.wordpress.com/2016/12/28/leia-organa-a-critical-obituary/
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,011
    DavidL To cap it off the Clintons announce they will attend Trump's inauguration on Friday 20th January, after George W and Laura and the Carters confirmed they would attend

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38501906
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    glw said:

    Not for Amazon Go....it shows it works with people simply picking things off the shelf and putting it in their bag and walking out. No trollies or archways as such. And all items are automatically charged to your Amazon account with no payment in store.

    I would presume that it is RFID (or similiar) chip based technology, but it isn't clear from the promo demo.

    I've read that it is mostly done with computer vision. It doesn't have to be perfect, if the mistakes are less costly than staff it is a win, and most customers will be honest so they won't be trying to trick the system.

    Perhaps they will only allow honest customers in.

    If you're caught stealing, then they ban you.

  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited January 2017
    it's looks like RFID + computer vision + some learned stuff about previous purchases to help with ambiguous scenarios.

    Be interesting to see how a) they scale this & b) cost when scaled.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Have we done this?

    Ford has said it will cancel a $1.6bn (£1.3bn) plant it planned to build in Mexico and instead extend operations at its factory in Michigan.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38497898

    Due mostly to falling sales of that model, and is moving another model there.

    Part of the reason that US manufactured cars are more expensive is because $1500 of the retail value is the employees health costs.

    A lot of US manufacturing would become profitable if US health costs were not so extreme.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:
    That decision alone must have Obama chewing the carpet with frustration.
    A liberal forum I saw the news on were chewing on bees. Much like remainers here they want their country to fail rather than for Trump to succeed in reshoring jobs.
    Is Michigan going to be winnable for a Democrat next time around? Its a serious problem for them if its not. Trump has the capacity to reshape the Presidential map and remove the structural disadvantage republicans seemed to have in recent times.
    The 'structural disadvantage' is that more people vote Democrat than Republican.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,031

    it's looks like RFID + computer vision + some learned stuff about previous purchases to help with ambiguous scenarios.

    Be interesting to see how a) they scale this & b) cost when scaled.

    Long-term reliability will be a major issue. Just look at how often the self-service tills are out of order in supermarkets. If many shelves are going to have scales under them, there will be lots of tech to go wrong just there, yet alone with the camera and other systems.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    @DavidL, my impression is that the Democrats have just given up trying to win places that aren't big cities, university towns, or majority/minority districts.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    chestnut said:

    Trump's argument that , "if you want to make a profit here, make your product here" is just a variation on "if you make your profits here, pay your taxes here."

    Both arguments come from the same place - international corporations exploiting free trade/globalisation to the detriment of the local population, whether via employment or via funding for public services.

    How much UK corporation tax do German car manufacturers pay, or do we only aim fire at US companies?

    Why would they pay corporation tax here?

    You pay tax where the profits accrue: just as ARM will have never paid meaningful US or Chinese taxes.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Proof (if more were needed) from Ladbrokes that we should take the notion of the bookies' odds as an indicator of political success with an entire skipload of salt:

    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/816205843188301824

    I mean, come off it!
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    Trump's argument that , "if you want to make a profit here, make your product here" is just a variation on "if you make your profits here, pay your taxes here."

    Both arguments come from the same place - international corporations exploiting free trade/globalisation to the detriment of the local population, whether via employment or via funding for public services.

    How much UK corporation tax do German car manufacturers pay, or do we only aim fire at US companies?

    Why would they pay corporation tax here?

    You pay tax where the profits accrue: just as ARM will have never paid meaningful US or Chinese taxes.
    BMW UK will have paid a fair amount of corporation tax here anyway since they sell cars to the dealers. It's one of those annoyances that Germany has with the EU iirc, their companies sell to the UK subsidiary and book minimal profit in Germany and then sell it for a profit in the UK to dealerships and pay UK corporation tax at 20% rather than their Byzantine corporate levies and taxes which come to around 35%.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,011
    edited January 2017
    SeanF In 2012 Obama won the Electoral College 332 to 206 by winning big cities and mid-sized cities despite losing small towns, rural areas and, narrowly, suburbs. He also lost the white vote but won the minority vote heavily so it is not necessarily a losing strategy despite the 2016 defeat.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012

    Ironically though the best thing to happen for the Democratic Party as a whole (beyond the Presidency) is to lose the White House. Pelosi now has a real chance to at least win back the House in the 2018 mid-terms if there is a protest vote against Trump while the Democrats could also pick-up some governorships and state legislatures, had Hillary won the GOP would almost certainly have increased their majority in those mid-terms
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    it's looks like RFID + computer vision + some learned stuff about previous purchases to help with ambiguous scenarios.

    Be interesting to see how a) they scale this & b) cost when scaled.

    Long-term reliability will be a major issue. Just look at how often the self-service tills are out of order in supermarkets. If many shelves are going to have scales under them, there will be lots of tech to go wrong just there, yet alone with the camera and other systems.
    Which means they either need to have people being paid to sit around doing nothing or roving support teams to fix technical issues. These systems always look good in the vacuum of a perfect scenario (such as an employee shop) but in the real world it's hard to see how it will stand up to theft, technical problems and privacy issues.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Black_rook I would have put Hamza Yosaf ahead of Ruth. Him and Nicola seem to be very close.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    edited January 2017
    What's also interesting is that Trump isn't just happy to bully corporations and executives over Twitter, he's bullying House republicans as well. He attacked their stupid plan to gut the ethics oversight committee and with an hour they released a statement saying they would back down.

    This is government by Twitter.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,031
    Off-topic:

    A tragic but odd story:

    A hit-and-run driver kills two pedestrians, then flees. He breaks into a house, and £100,000 is found buried in the house's garden.

    http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/cambridge-news/cambridgeshire-double-death-crash-driver-12401203
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,311
    MaxPB said:

    What's also interesting is that Trump isn't just happy to bully corporations and executives over Twitter, he's bullying House republicans as well. He attacked their stupid plan to gut the ethics oversight committee and with an hour they released a statement saying they would back down.

    This is government by Twitter.

    Max is it just you sitting on a packing case with a MacBook on your lap?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's also interesting is that Trump isn't just happy to bully corporations and executives over Twitter, he's bullying House republicans as well. He attacked their stupid plan to gut the ethics oversight committee and with an hour they released a statement saying they would back down.

    This is government by Twitter.

    Max is it just you sitting on a packing case with a MacBook on your lap?
    No, I'm in my parents house right now, leaving on Saturday for Zurich.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Bit of a late day at the orofice.

    Catching up on the thread beader, the polling looks remarkeably steady. Several observations:

    1) This is still the phoney war phase of Brexit.
    2) There is no evidence of a honeymoon effect. Usually this happens even with the most unpromising victors, even Trump got a polling boost.
    3) Remain voters either were not browbeaten by "Project Fear" or the effect has not worn off. My suspicion is that this was not a powerful motivator in the first place, and perhaps the fatal flaw in the Remain campaign was to focus on this.
    4) This chasm in British life is going to carry on for the forseable.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    Trump's argument that , "if you want to make a profit here, make your product here" is just a variation on "if you make your profits here, pay your taxes here."

    Both arguments come from the same place - international corporations exploiting free trade/globalisation to the detriment of the local population, whether via employment or via funding for public services.

    How much UK corporation tax do German car manufacturers pay, or do we only aim fire at US companies?

    Why would they pay corporation tax here?

    You pay tax where the profits accrue: just as ARM will have never paid meaningful US or Chinese taxes.
    So, what's the reason for singling out American companies if everyone is at it?

  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,625
    Watching Ch4 news earlier, I expected to see Snow wearing a black armband over the resignation of our EU ambassador.

    Let's get someone in post who isn't suffering from Stockholm Syndrome.
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Scott_P said:
    Or synonymous with doing things he doesn't believe in as a career long euro man.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    chestnut said:
    Working for BoJo on Brexit? not so much spitting the dummy as passing the poisoned chalice.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    SeanF In 2012 Obama won the Electoral College 332 to 206 by winning big cities and mid-sized cities despite losing small towns, rural areas and, narrowly, suburbs. He also lost the white vote but won the minority vote heavily so it is not necessarily a losing strategy despite the 2016 defeat.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012

    Ironically though the best thing to happen for the Democratic Party as a whole (beyond the Presidency) is to lose the White House. Pelosi now has a real chance to at least win back the House in the 2018 mid-terms if there is a protest vote against Trump while the Democrats could also pick-up some governorships and state legislatures, had Hillary won the GOP would almost certainly have increased their majority in those mid-terms

    I see little to suggest Dems will suddenly get good at midterms. And they face senate apocalypse in 2018 even if they do well congressionally.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited January 2017
    nunu said:

    Black_rook I would have put Hamza Yosaf ahead of Ruth. Him and Nicola seem to be very close.

    He is undoubtedly seen as next in line for SNP leadership at the mo.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited January 2017
    Not very liberal....

    The news sparked outrage among those who say he should not have a platform to share his views. After a coordinated appeal began on 29 December, with instructions on how to call the publisher and individual agents being shared widely online...

    The Chicago Review of Books announced it would not be reviewing any Simon & Schuster books in 2017 – the company publishes about 2,000 books a year across its 35 imprints.

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/jan/03/milo-yiannopoulos-250000-book-deal-fury-leslie-jones-simon-schuster-breitbart-alt-right

    Don't like the message...shut them down...silence him....

    Just ignore him and his trolly rants. Its much easier and far more liberal approach.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    My long shot bet. If anyone is offering 1000/1 on Evan Mcmullin to be Republican nominee in 2020 I'll take a tenner on it.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Perhaps to save time Theresa May could introduce a Brexit oath to weed out civil servants who are not true beLeavers. That way she would not be troubled by inconveniently negative assessments about difficulties ahead. Or, alternatively, she and her government might learn to listen to and weigh alternative analyses by experienced public servants.

    I suppose it depends whether Brexit is a policy objective or a cultish belief.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Perhaps to save time Theresa May could introduce a Brexit oath to weed out civil servants who are not true beLeavers. That way she would not be troubled by inconveniently negative assessments about difficulties ahead. Or, alternatively, she and her government might learn to listen to and weigh alternative analyses by experienced public servants.

    I suppose it depends whether Brexit is a policy objective or a cultish belief.

    One flew over the cuckoos nest points the way.
  • Options
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,472
    edited January 2017

    Perhaps to save time Theresa May could introduce a Brexit oath to weed out civil servants who are not true beLeavers. That way she would not be troubled by inconveniently negative assessments about difficulties ahead. Or, alternatively, she and her government might learn to listen to and weigh alternative analyses by experienced public servants.

    I suppose it depends whether Brexit is a policy objective or a cultish belief.

    They'll be asked

    'Are you now or have you ever been a Remainer?'
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Farage finally gets the gig.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Perhaps to save time Theresa May could introduce a Brexit oath to weed out civil servants who are not true beLeavers. That way she would not be troubled by inconveniently negative assessments about difficulties ahead. Or, alternatively, she and her government might learn to listen to and weigh alternative analyses by experienced public servants.

    I suppose it depends whether Brexit is a policy objective or a cultish belief.

    We have had enough of experts...

    https://twitter.com/rupertmyers/status/816410055947886592
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited January 2017
    TBH, it would have been far better to have eased him out as soon as it was stated that end of March was going to be when A50 was triggered.

    Putting aside he clearly favours remaining in the EU, you can't have a guy supposedly leading 2+ years of talks who is already scheduled to be stepping down after a few months into the process.

    No private company would think that was a good way to do business, rather they would set up a transition to having a successor in place before talks commence.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Perhaps to save time Theresa May could introduce a Brexit oath to weed out civil servants who are not true beLeavers. That way she would not be troubled by inconveniently negative assessments about difficulties ahead. Or, alternatively, she and her government might learn to listen to and weigh alternative analyses by experienced public servants.

    I suppose it depends whether Brexit is a policy objective or a cultish belief.

    I do think it's time for a good old fashioned witch hunt.

    On a serious note, I think there are some parts of the civil service who are actively trying to make Brexit a failure so the nation either gives up or votes to rejoin in the future. I don't know about this ambassador but he does fit the bill. Opposing voices should be welcomed, but federalists who are paid up EUphiles should be shoved off the top of the shard.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,011
    edited January 2017
    Alistair Every President since WW2 has lost House seats in their first midterms (bar W in 2002 after 9/11). Reagan lost 26 seats in 1982, Clinton 54 in 1994 and Obama 63 in 2010. Pelosi needs 24 for a majority. As for the Senate of course Obama held the Senate in 2010 despite losing the House and Reagan also held it for 6 years too but if the Democrats avoid any major losses they would then have a chance to pick up the Upper Chamber in 2020 when many seats they lost in 2014 would be up
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited January 2017

    experienced public servants.

    I suppose it depends whether Brexit is a policy objective or a cultish belief.

    'Public servants' are the masters of the 'can't do' argument.

    When a civil servant says 'business does not like uncertainty' they really mean the civil service doesn't like change.

  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    It is worth reading in full. Why did the DPM move elsewhere? and for someone intimately involved to be unaware of what the governments position is, is pretty damning.
  • Options
    LEAVE 52%
    REMAIN 48%

    :innocent:
  • Options
    Mike's on Newsnight now.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    LEAVE 52%
    REMAIN 48%

    :innocent:

    £350M for NHS
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    TBH, it would have been far better to have eased him out as soon as it was stated that end of March was going to be when A50 was triggered.

    That's one of the things he thinks is really dumb
  • Options
    Is it true that REMAINERs hate Britain?
  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    Love Matt, yet again. :smiley:

    Good evening, everyone.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,625
    @Jonathan - The end of western civilisation!
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Mike on Newsnight
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Talk about Stockholm syndrome in that resignation explanation email. He's a fully paid up EUphile. We need someone who is going to fight our corner, not give in because the rest of the EU won't like us. Good riddance.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,980
    edited January 2017
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Surbion Longer term it is ideas like a universal basic income and retraining that are the answer to automation

    I'm slowly being convinced by a universal basic income. The administrative savings alone probably make it worthwhile!
    SNP are always ahead of the game Rob
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    MaxPB said:

    Talk about Stockholm syndrome in that resignation explanation email. He's a fully paid up EUphile. We need someone who is going to fight our corner, not give in because the rest of the EU won't like us. Good riddance.

    We want someone who fights for the national interest, not the narrow interest of the Brexit B team.
  • Options
    @Jonathan - but the nation voted for Brexit.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Talk about Stockholm syndrome in that resignation explanation email. He's a fully paid up EUphile. We need someone who is going to fight our corner, not give in because the rest of the EU won't like us. Good riddance.

    We want someone who fights for the national interest, not the narrow interest of the Brexit B team.
    Well there's a huge question mark over this person, he seems to think that the national interest and the interest of the EU are aligned, they are not. They have never really been aligned. Not thathe would ever realise. As I said good riddance.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    @Jonathan - but the nation voted for Brexit.

    The Prime Minister and Chancellor voted Remain too.

    Purge the Bourgois Menshiviks, all power to the Brexit Soviets!
  • Options
    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113

    It is worth reading in full. Why did the DPM move elsewhere? and for someone intimately involved to be unaware of what the governments position is, is pretty damning.
    Highlights.

    "We do not yet know what the Government will set as negotiating objectives for the UK’s relationship with the EU after exit."

    "Serious multilateral negotiating experience is in short supply in Whitehall, and that is not the case in the Commission or in the Council."

    "Senior Ministers, who will decide on our positions, issue by issue, also need from you detailed, unvarnished – even where this is uncomfortable - and nuanced understanding of the views, interests and incentives of the other 27."

    "The structure of the UK’s negotiating team and the allocation of roles and responsibilities to support that team, needs rapid resolution."

    "I hope you will continue to challenge ill-founded arguments and muddled thinking and that you will never be afraid to speak the truth to those in power."

    The Empress' suit is becoming a little frayed.
  • Options
    It is amusing to see other commentators saying what I've been saying for months, Mrs May and her team are crap and controlling.

    As someone told me before Christmas

    'I've always wondered what it was like to work for Gordon Brown when he was PM, now I know'
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    @Jonathan - but the nation voted for Brexit.

    Stone the unbelievers.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Talk about Stockholm syndrome in that resignation explanation email. He's a fully paid up EUphile. We need someone who is going to fight our corner, not give in because the rest of the EU won't like us. Good riddance.

    We want someone who fights for the national interest, not the narrow interest of the Brexit B team.
    Leavers believe that no Remainer can reliably assess the national interest. They believe that Remainers who have not changed their minds are inherently treacherous.

    It is the only explanation for Leavers' conduct.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    MaxPB said:

    Talk about Stockholm syndrome in that resignation explanation email. He's a fully paid up EUphile. We need someone who is going to fight our corner, not give in because the rest of the EU won't like us. Good riddance.

    We need people who can cut a good deal with the EU, not just state our demands in an antagonistic manner. We can have 100 Farages or Foxes runs the negotiations if it will make us feel more powerful, but that isn't how we move the point where we meet the EU in the middle closer to us.

    The fundamental problem we have is that, while the EU cannot force us to do anything in the future, we want something from the EU. If we want something from them then we need to reach a compromise between what they want and what we want. Being rude about them, even if it's justified, is not particularly effective in our national interest.

    (That last comment isn't meant to criticise anyone here.)
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Jonathan said:

    @Jonathan - but the nation voted for Brexit.

    Stone the unbelievers.
    Burn them at the stake. We're not barbarians.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    4) This chasm in British life is going to carry on for the forseable.

    Only up to a point. Europe is a tremendously important issue, but it doesn't exactly obsess the entire nation. If there were a massive popular split opening up between pro and anti-EU camps in the broader electorate right now, then we should be seeing a re-ordering of the political landscape, with the Liberal Democrats (as the principal Remain cheerleaders) the chief beneficiaries. We are not.

    IMHO party reputation, brand loyalty, leadership credentials and economic competence all continue to matter enormously, alongside the constitutional question. There's a fair amount of voter churn going on (of which only the Ukip to Con movement seems likely to be motivated mainly by the aftermath of the referendum,) and the broad overall pattern of GE voting intention movement since 2015 still seems to be a 3-5% swing from Lab to Con. There is also, now, some indication of the beginnings of a Lib Dem polling revival to back up their local by-election wins, but a more consistent trend is still needed before we get too excited by that.

    All of this is still a world away from what happened when constitutional issues came to the fore in Scotland - and the widening of the Con-Lab gap is surely at least as much to do with credibility issues as it is anything related to Europe?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,011
    AlistairMeeks Of course May herself was a Remainer and she is still likely to make some concessions even if she wants a pro Brexit Ambassador
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,011
    TSE Has May been throwing stuff around and screaming like Brown did? Not as far as I am aware. However Brown was unlucky in the sense that he came to office just as the Tories had an electable leader, May is more fortunate in that she has come to power with Labour led by their worst leader since Foot
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Talk about Stockholm syndrome in that resignation explanation email. He's a fully paid up EUphile. We need someone who is going to fight our corner, not give in because the rest of the EU won't like us. Good riddance.

    We want someone who fights for the national interest, not the narrow interest of the Brexit B team.
    Leavers believe that no Remainer can reliably assess the national interest. They believe that Remainers who have not changed their minds are inherently treacherous.

    It is the only explanation for Leavers' conduct.
    There is an element of that, one only needs to read from the like of this ambassador to realise that he would rather block Brexit by whatever means necessary and failing that push it towards failure than see the nation succeed after leaving. There are very many people, especially in the civil service, who are actively seeking a recession after leaving to punish the masses who tore them away from their beloved EU. Now obviously the vast majority of people who voted to remain aren't minded that way, but unfortunately those who count seem to be in the cult of the EU. Purging them may be a a distasteful but necessary step to get a good deal.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    22 minutes in, Mike gets called....
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    It is amusing to see other commentators saying what I've been saying for months, Mrs May and her team are crap and controlling.

    As someone told me before Christmas

    'I've always wondered what it was like to work for Gordon Brown when he was PM, now I know'

    Clearly preposterous. Where is Theresa May getting Nokias these days?
  • Options
    Is it true that REMAINERs would have gladly collaborated with Hitler had he successfully invaded in 1940?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Quincel said:

    MaxPB said:

    Talk about Stockholm syndrome in that resignation explanation email. He's a fully paid up EUphile. We need someone who is going to fight our corner, not give in because the rest of the EU won't like us. Good riddance.

    We need people who can cut a good deal with the EU, not just state our demands in an antagonistic manner. We can have 100 Farages or Foxes runs the negotiations if it will make us feel more powerful, but that isn't how we move the point where we meet the EU in the middle closer to us.

    The fundamental problem we have is that, while the EU cannot force us to do anything in the future, we want something from the EU. If we want something from them then we need to reach a compromise between what they want and what we want. Being rude about them, even if it's justified, is not particularly effective in our national interest.

    (That last comment isn't meant to criticise anyone here.)
    There's a difference between compromise and just giving in, though.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Is it true that REMAINERs would have gladly collaborated with Hitler had he successfully invaded in 1940?

    Tis the Leavers who consort with far right groups...
This discussion has been closed.