I agree that an impending General Election is unlikely. May might try for it if the pressure within her party grows. I do wonder if she might end up being axed sooner rather than later. Probably not, as the heat for the EU will be a serious albatross for any PM, and would-be successors would want her to suffer that, but it could drive her to seek an early election if she thinks she'll be toppled.
May won't be axed because there's no obviously better candidate.
Boris? Too flaky and no attention to detail. Hammond? May without the charisma. Rudd? Lightweight. Osborne? Unappealing to the public (maybe he should do Strictly) Gove? Has handed out too many knives to be trusted. Hunt? Negotiating with the BMA might be good practice for the EU but no great track record and still a bit punchable. Davidson? Untested and out of Westminster. Javid? Underwhelming. Fox/Davis/IDS? History says don't go there.
And so on.
All the alternatives have too much history, too little talent or are simply paler versions of the incumbent.
The constant whining, sulking and bitching from the referendum losers is almost making me wish for Cameron to come back and us to stay in the EU.
That might have been a project fear story that would have worked.... If we vote to leave, 48% of the nation will act like spoilt brat teenagers, forever stomping their feet and saying its not fair/no one understands them
Whilst you might not see it on here - I think most of the 48% have accepted the referendum result. Certainly polls show little appetite for re-running the referendum.
The politicians certainly have come to terms with it - both major parties are led by Remainers who have now committed to leaving.
5-4-3-2-1: 'This polling is meaningless/skewed/unrepresentative/voodoo'
/all of the above. There are 13 countries there, presumably the other 15 have left and no one noticed or were too wee, too poor and too stupid to be worth asking?
I hadn't thought Greece, Finland & Bulgaria were especially 'big', 'rich' & 'clever' EU players, and of course there may be huge anti EU moves being deliberately concealed in Croatia, Netherlands etc. Or not.
Mr. Observer, I agree with much of that (don't watch PMQs much anymore, though), but your use of 'pre-prepared' is a crime against the English language and you should thrash yourself with a flail as penance.
What would a GE achieve for Theresa May apart from being a distraction at a critical time and further delaying the invocation of A50 ?
Assuming an increased majority and power until 2022 - what else ? Labour might conceivably react better to the third defeat than to the first two and choose a better leader who, much as Blair did in the mid 90s, might start to look an attractive alternative to the tired old Government and Prime Minister.
The other problem is the small issue of leaving the EU - Theresa May's mandate is to take the vote to LEAVE from 23/6/16 and translate it into the future economic and commercial relationship between the UK and both the EU and the rest of the world - no small task.
An election now would be a pointless distraction however much the Conservative supporters want the chance to win big and rub everyone else's noses in it. Whether the GE is in itself an adequate mechanism to pass judgement on the outcome of the A50 negotiations or whether a referendum on the specific post-EU treaty is required is the key question but the mandate to negotiate already exists.
May is dull but conscientious, limited but determined, ultimately a conservative with a very small "c". All of these traits will push her into thinking that she has a difficult but important job to do for the future of this country and that she should not be distracted from it. She is of course perfectly correct in this.
Given these traits and the views she has already expressed there is really no chance at all of her voluntarily going to the polls before Brexit is a done deal. So this is a bet on it being involuntary. The Tories have a small majority and some very difficult decisions to make. Keeping the party and government together through this would have taxed the skill of Cameron and Osborne let alone May and her even duller bank manager. She seems to trust very few people and does not have an Osborne type to put a bit of stick about when required. But to be responsible for bringing down the government that is negotiating Brexit is a very big ask of even the most recalcitrant back benchers. It's possible but its nowhere near a 31% chance.
I agree that an impending General Election is unlikely. May might try for it if the pressure within her party grows. I do wonder if she might end up being axed sooner rather than later. Probably not, as the heat for the EU will be a serious albatross for any PM, and would-be successors would want her to suffer that, but it could drive her to seek an early election if she thinks she'll be toppled.
May won't be axed because there's no obviously better candidate.
Boris? Too flaky and no attention to detail. Hammond? May without the charisma. Rudd? Lightweight. Osborne? Unappealing to the public (maybe he should do Strictly) Gove? Has handed out too many knives to be trusted. Hunt? Negotiating with the BMA might be good practice for the EU but no great track record and still a bit punchable. Davidson? Untested and out of Westminster. Javid? Underwhelming. Fox/Davis/IDS? History says don't go there.
And so on.
All the alternatives have too much history, too little talent or are simply paler versions of the incumbent.
The constant whining, sulking and bitching from the referendum losers is almost making me wish for Cameron to come back and us to stay in the EU.
That might have been a project fear story that would have worked.... If we vote to leave, 48% of the nation will act like spoilt brat teenagers, forever stomping their feet and saying its not fair/no one understands them
Whilst you might not see it on here - I think most of the 48% have accepted the referendum result. Certainly polls show little appetite for re-running the referendum.
The politicians certainly have come to terms with it - both major parties are led by Remainers who have now committed to leaving.
To be fair I think you are right. Most normal people just consider it a thing of the past and we are leaving. Its only those who misread the referendum and cant deal with being seen to be wrong that are refusing to accept it, and that's more to do with ego than reason.
@Mortimer - not even a PM as dire as May could lose an election to Corbyn. Given that, my worries about her are all based around her not being up to the job in hand. A bad Brexit deal suits no-one who has to live in the real world.
5-4-3-2-1: 'This polling is meaningless/skewed/unrepresentative/voodoo'
/all of the above. There are 13 countries there, presumably the other 15 have left and no one noticed or were too wee, too poor and too stupid to be worth asking?
I hadn't thought Greece, Finland & Bulgaria were especially 'big', 'rich' & 'clever' EU players, and of course there may be huge anti EU moves being deliberately concealed in Croatia, Netherlands etc. Or not.
To be fair, this poll is only useful (as I think all polls are) in context of change from last one by this firm. If their last poll was 60/40 Remain then its not really saying what you want it to be, if their last poll was 50/50 then it probably is.
Who on earth would want to be head of NATO and have to deal with Donald Trump? It's just asking to look ridiculous. Between the man with the title and the man with the power there is only 1 winner. He would be crazy to take it.
Certainly not, Mr. Topping, the last thing one would want in such a post is a senior bod from any of the services. However, having some appreciation of defence issues, an understanding of treaties and their limitations and a proven effectiveness at international negotiation would seem to be pre-requisites. A history of ignoring promises and bending UN resolutions beyond their limits whilst being blind to the consequences of his/her actions should I think put any candidate out of the running.
Personal charm is an ideal qualification for a harlot or gigolo but not for the general secretary of NATO.
@David_Evershed - May's PMQ performances are so dire Corbyn regularly gets the best of her. She struggles even to deliver pre-prepared lines effectively. If that is not down to a lack self-confidence she's even worse than I thought.
She is pretty much up to the level of most PMs (excepting Cameron and Blair) without having the experience of being an opposition leader for a lengthy period.
Strikes me that many orange book Tories and many centrist Labourites are protesting too much about May. Suggests to me that they're properly scared about her abilities to broker Brexit and win a general election. They should be. As far as I can see she'll be much more in tune with the British public outside of the unrepresentative cities than any leader since Major or Thatcher. Election winner written all over her.
But it would be foolish to go before the boundary changes are in place. The out of date position needs to be corrected.
Is this like how the SNP were terrified of Jim Murphy in 2015?
5-4-3-2-1: 'This polling is meaningless/skewed/unrepresentative/voodoo'
/all of the above. There are 13 countries there, presumably the other 15 have left and no one noticed or were too wee, too poor and too stupid to be worth asking?
I hadn't thought Greece, Finland & Bulgaria were especially 'big', 'rich' & 'clever' EU players, and of course there may be huge anti EU moves being deliberately concealed in Croatia, Netherlands etc. Or not.
Well, I'd love to see a defence of the methodology. Anyway, the UK is completely different from all the other members, as de Gaulle very sensibly pointed out in '63, so the poll is irrelevant to us.
Cameron lined up as the UK candidate for the NATO job? Someone is having a laugh. What possible qualification does he have for the post? Ok, he presided over two fairly disastrous rounds of defence cuts, broke his pre-2010 promise to service personnel, and took us into a war, in which he stretched a UN resolution far beyond its limits, that has caused untold mayhem and anarchy in North Africa and that has spilled over into Southern Europe. He has also proved himself useless at international negotiations.
I think the General Secretary of NATO is going to need a bit better CV than that.
UK has form on it Hurst, Labour put that diddy Robertson in place some years ago. These are always placemen taking turns at the trough.
Re Head of NATO. I think that the next 5 years will be extremely challenging for the role. I feel that we may become closer to real conflict between the Soviets and NATO than at any time since 1962. We will need someone with intelligence and balls, that rules out Cameron.
Robert will be pleased to see that the savings rate surged in November!
It is very hard to reconcile these figures with the boom in consumption and imports (unfortunately) we have seen since at least October and which resulted in the lifting of the Q3 GDP figure only last week. It suggests to me that wage growth is being significantly underestimated in the official figures. It is possible that the growth of the gig economy has now got to the point that a significant part of earnings are not being caught in the official data.
Stunned that Debbie Reynolds has also now gone. Had to read the headline over and over. Had a stroke apparently.
I'm not that surprised... It's typical Debbie Reynolds really... If Carrie could speak I'm sure she'd make a quip that even in death her Mother has to over-shadow her!
Robert will be pleased to see that the savings rate surged in November!
It is very hard to reconcile these figures with the boom in consumption and imports (unfortunately) we have seen since at least October and which resulted in the lifting of the Q3 GDP figure only last week. It suggests to me that wage growth is being significantly underestimated in the official figures. It is possible that the growth of the gig economy has now got to the point that a significant part of earnings are not being caught in the official data.
Just as well £350 million a week is sorting this out.
Weirdly, it was not the NHS headline that immediately caught my attention. Is my focus on PB matters becoming deficient? And, by the way, we haven't left yet. Still paying for the EU.
Robert will be pleased to see that the savings rate surged in November!
It is very hard to reconcile these figures with the boom in consumption and imports (unfortunately) we have seen since at least October and which resulted in the lifting of the Q3 GDP figure only last week. It suggests to me that wage growth is being significantly underestimated in the official figures. It is possible that the growth of the gig economy has now got to the point that a significant part of earnings are not being caught in the official data.
Certainly not, Mr. Topping, the last thing one would want in such a post is a senior bod from any of the services. However, having some appreciation of defence issues, an understanding of treaties and their limitations and a proven effectiveness at international negotiation would seem to be pre-requisites. A history of ignoring promises and bending UN resolutions beyond their limits whilst being blind to the consequences of his/her actions should I think put any candidate out of the running.
Personal charm is an ideal qualification for a harlot or gigolo but not for the general secretary of NATO.
I really like this post. One of Mr L’s best, especially given the inneundo at the end.
Robert will be pleased to see that the savings rate surged in November!
It is very hard to reconcile these figures with the boom in consumption and imports (unfortunately) we have seen since at least October and which resulted in the lifting of the Q3 GDP figure only last week. It suggests to me that wage growth is being significantly underestimated in the official figures. It is possible that the growth of the gig economy has now got to the point that a significant part of earnings are not being caught in the official data.
Robert will be pleased to see that the savings rate surged in November!
It is very hard to reconcile these figures with the boom in consumption and imports (unfortunately) we have seen since at least October and which resulted in the lifting of the Q3 GDP figure only last week. It suggests to me that wage growth is being significantly underestimated in the official figures. It is possible that the growth of the gig economy has now got to the point that a significant part of earnings are not being caught in the official data.
@David_Evershed - May's PMQ performances are so dire Corbyn regularly gets the best of her. She struggles even to deliver pre-prepared lines effectively. If that is not down to a lack self-confidence she's even worse than I thought.
She is pretty much up to the level of most PMs (excepting Cameron and Blair) without having the experience of being an opposition leader for a lengthy period.
Strikes me that many orange book Tories and many centrist Labourites are protesting too much about May. Suggests to me that they're properly scared about her abilities to broker Brexit and win a general election. They should be. As far as I can see she'll be much more in tune with the British public outside of the unrepresentative cities than any leader since Major or Thatcher. Election winner written all over her.
But it would be foolish to go before the boundary changes are in place. The out of date position needs to be corrected.
Yes, if possible Mrs May will wait for the boundary update and reduction in MP numbers, which will cause an almighty reselection bunfight in the Labour Party.
Leamington is another country, part 6,543: 1. The shops have been very, very quiet post-Christmas. 2. I called for a GP appointment yesterday and was seen within 90 minutes. Had to get a blood test done at the hospital this morning. Was in and out within an hour.
That map is reminiscent of the great circle that covers least land. You can travel from Pakistan to Kamchatka via the Cape of Good Hope and Cape Horn without ever changing course and without ever touching land.
Robert will be pleased to see that the savings rate surged in November!
It is very hard to reconcile these figures with the boom in consumption and imports (unfortunately) we have seen since at least October and which resulted in the lifting of the Q3 GDP figure only last week. It suggests to me that wage growth is being significantly underestimated in the official figures. It is possible that the growth of the gig economy has now got to the point that a significant part of earnings are not being caught in the official data.
She is pretty much up to the level of most PMs (excepting Cameron and Blair) without having the experience of being an opposition leader for a lengthy period.
Strikes me that many orange book Tories and many centrist Labourites are protesting too much about May. Suggests to me that they're properly scared about her abilities to broker Brexit and win a general election. They should be. As far as I can see she'll be much more in tune with the British public outside of the unrepresentative cities than any leader since Major or Thatcher. Election winner written all over her.
But it would be foolish to go before the boundary changes are in place. The out of date position needs to be corrected.
Let's see how she deals with her first proper internal crisis before we praise her too much.
As a Conservative partisan, you're in the ditch with her but those of us who aren't of the Conservative faith can look more dispassionately. Theresa May is the Daily Mail in political form - she is completely representative of their demographic and they will support her come what may (no pun intended) and eulogise her wherever possible as "one of us".
So much depends on the A50 negotiation and the deal we get from the EU. If she can get a deal which can be sold to a sceptical public, she'll win an election and deserve to. If what is served up is a dog's dinner of half promises, vague commitments and aspirations that falls apart under scrutiny, she'll deserved to lose but in the absence of a viable alternative will probably win. The problem will then be the 2020-25 period as the shortcomings of the deal become apparent.
Support for Catalonian independence has fallen slightly. But basically the country is split down the middle. If the PP could drop its Spanish nationalism there's a deal to be done. Give the Cstalans what the Basques have and it's game over. El rechazo a la independencia crece en Cataluña http://elpais.com/ccaa/2016/12/29/catalunya/1483006825_524100.html
Leamington is another country, part 6,543: 1. The shops have been very, very quiet post-Christmas. 2. I called for a GP appointment yesterday and was seen within 90 minutes. Had to get a blood test done at the hospital this morning. Was in and out within an hour.
Just checked our surgery’s on-line appointment booking system. Nothing available this week, but plenty Tuesday onwards. In my (considerable) experience of these things our local blood test centre normally requires a wait of an hour; sometimes shorter, rarely longer.
Robert will be pleased to see that the savings rate surged in November!
Yay!
(I'm looking at Bloomberg economic releases UK and don't see it. Where are you getting it?)
Surely it wasn’t meant to be like this? In the wake of the vote to leave the EU back in June, mainstream economists were unanimous in their view that we would be in a recession by now. Unemployment would have soared, inflation would be out of control, investment would have evaporated, and the pound would have sunk below parity with both the euro and the dollar......
Instead, the script is very different. Most economists have been so determined to convince us that leaving the EU has been a catastrophe, and so busy looking for scraps of evidence of a slowdown, that they have completely ignored the real danger. In reality, there has been no post-referendum bust — no matter how many economists keep looking for one. But there is a genuine threat of a far more traditional British problem: a runaway consumer boom, fuelled by underpriced debt, which ends up in a nasty crash. Should that happen, the economists, and in particular the Bank of England, will be largely to blame.
"In the first 11 months of 2016, personal deposits grew by £32.4billion collectively, compared with a £19.8billion increase in the same period of 2015."
The rate of borrowing on credit cards etc has slowed too.
"Annual growth in consumer credit - which includes these types of borrowing - fell back to around six per cent in November following an annual rise of over seven per cent in October."
It is strange. There is a lot more money coming from somewhere.
Robert will be pleased to see that the savings rate surged in November!
Yay!
(I'm looking at Bloomberg economic releases UK and don't see it. Where are you getting it?)
Surely it wasn’t meant to be like this? In the wake of the vote to leave the EU back in June, mainstream economists were unanimous in their view that we would be in a recession by now. Unemployment would have soared, inflation would be out of control, investment would have evaporated, and the pound would have sunk below parity with both the euro and the dollar......
Instead, the script is very different. Most economists have been so determined to convince us that leaving the EU has been a catastrophe, and so busy looking for scraps of evidence of a slowdown, that they have completely ignored the real danger. In reality, there has been no post-referendum bust — no matter how many economists keep looking for one. But there is a genuine threat of a far more traditional British problem: a runaway consumer boom, fuelled by underpriced debt, which ends up in a nasty crash. Should that happen, the economists, and in particular the Bank of England, will be largely to blame.
Rates being cut was Carney's ego outweighing his judgement. I expect the same factor to stop them rising to the dizzying heights of 0.5% as fast as they ought.
Robert will be pleased to see that the savings rate surged in November!
Yay!
(I'm looking at Bloomberg economic releases UK and don't see it. Where are you getting it?)
Surely it wasn’t meant to be like this? In the wake of the vote to leave the EU back in June, mainstream economists were unanimous in their view that we would be in a recession by now. Unemployment would have soared, inflation would be out of control, investment would have evaporated, and the pound would have sunk below parity with both the euro and the dollar......
Instead, the script is very different. Most economists have been so determined to convince us that leaving the EU has been a catastrophe, and so busy looking for scraps of evidence of a slowdown, that they have completely ignored the real danger. In reality, there has been no post-referendum bust — no matter how many economists keep looking for one. But there is a genuine threat of a far more traditional British problem: a runaway consumer boom, fuelled by underpriced debt, which ends up in a nasty crash. Should that happen, the economists, and in particular the Bank of England, will be largely to blame.
Rates being cut was Carney's ego outweighing his judgement. I expect the same factor to stop them rising to the dizzying heights of 0.5% as fast as they ought.
So you really think the decision to cut the rate was solely down to Mark Carney and not the vote of the nine strong Monetary Policy Committee ?
Rates being cut was Carney's ego outweighing his judgement. I expect the same factor to stop them rising to the dizzying heights of 0.5% as fast as they ought.
So you really think the decision to cut the rate was solely down to Mark Carney and not the vote of the nine strong Monetary Policy Committee ?
Crossed fingers, all them, plus toes I would have thought. However if t happens it seems to cut down the fighting to everyone against IS nd what used to be Nusra. How much do the latter control?
Rates being cut was Carney's ego outweighing his judgement. I expect the same factor to stop them rising to the dizzying heights of 0.5% as fast as they ought.
So you really think the decision to cut the rate was solely down to Mark Carney and not the vote of the nine strong Monetary Policy Committee ?
No, all those that voted for it should be held to account. But that does include Carney and as Governor, his opinion is worth more than one-ninth of the Committee.
Rates being cut was Carney's ego outweighing his judgement. I expect the same factor to stop them rising to the dizzying heights of 0.5% as fast as they ought.
So you really think the decision to cut the rate was solely down to Mark Carney and not the vote of the nine strong Monetary Policy Committee ?
The MPC is an echo chamber of experts.
I'd prefer to write it as: The MPC is an echo chamber of "experts".
So-called "experts" are often nothing of the sort.
"In the first 11 months of 2016, personal deposits grew by £32.4billion collectively, compared with a £19.8billion increase in the same period of 2015."
The rate of borrowing on credit cards etc has slowed too.
"Annual growth in consumer credit - which includes these types of borrowing - fell back to around six per cent in November following an annual rise of over seven per cent in October."
It is strange. There is a lot more money coming from somewhere.
Robert will be pleased to see that the savings rate surged in November!
Yay!
(I'm looking at Bloomberg economic releases UK and don't see it. Where are you getting it?)
Surely it wasn’t meant to be like this? In the wake of the vote to leave the EU back in June, mainstream economists were unanimous in their view that we would be in a recession by now. Unemployment would have soared, inflation would be out of control, investment would have evaporated, and the pound would have sunk below parity with both the euro and the dollar......
Instead, the script is very different. Most economists have been so determined to convince us that leaving the EU has been a catastrophe, and so busy looking for scraps of evidence of a slowdown, that they have completely ignored the real danger. In reality, there has been no post-referendum bust — no matter how many economists keep looking for one. But there is a genuine threat of a far more traditional British problem: a runaway consumer boom, fuelled by underpriced debt, which ends up in a nasty crash. Should that happen, the economists, and in particular the Bank of England, will be largely to blame.
On Topic. Why would a Tory PM put her fate in the hands of Labour backbenchers ? If she calls for an Election & fails then she is finished.
She's finished if she loses an election. If she calls for an early election and Labour are too frit to vote for it then they are finished.
I don't think so. All Labour has to say is that there is legislation and there is no need to amend/repeal it now.
A vote to call an early election is not the same as a vote to amend/repeal legislation. It sits within existing legislation and is simply the Commons (no Lords required) voting by two-thirds (including vacant seats) on a motion that "there should be an election on [insert date here".
Voting against that motion is a vote in favour of continuing Tory government. There is no way either Labour or the SNP can vote against that motion.
If they fail to vote for the election then that's a win/win for May. She avoids the risk of a shock defeat altogether AND is given a new mandate to continue ruling by the very MPs who are supposed to oppose her. They will be her mandate.
May is dull but conscientious, limited but determined, ultimately a conservative with a very small "c". All of these traits will push her into thinking that she has a difficult but important job to do for the future of this country and that she should not be distracted from it. She is of course perfectly correct in this.
Given these traits and the views she has already expressed there is really no chance at all of her voluntarily going to the polls before Brexit is a done deal. So this is a bet on it being involuntary. The Tories have a small majority and some very difficult decisions to make. Keeping the party and government together through this would have taxed the skill of Cameron and Osborne let alone May and her even duller bank manager. She seems to trust very few people and does not have an Osborne type to put a bit of stick about when required. But to be responsible for bringing down the government that is negotiating Brexit is a very big ask of even the most recalcitrant back benchers. It's possible but its nowhere near a 31% chance.
I t also depends on by-elections. If the Tories cannot win Copeland now, then all the air in the hype about Corbyn and Labour being unelectable will fizzle out.
Remember Labour does not have to win an election. All it needs [ with others ] is to deny the Tories a majority. The two scenarios are not the same.
Robert will be pleased to see that the savings rate surged in November!
Yay!
(I'm looking at Bloomberg economic releases UK and don't see it. Where are you getting it?)
Surely it wasn’t meant to be like this? In the wake of the vote to leave the EU back in June, mainstream economists were unanimous in their view that we would be in a recession by now. Unemployment would have soared, inflation would be out of control, investment would have evaporated, and the pound would have sunk below parity with both the euro and the dollar......
Instead, the script is very different. Most economists have been so determined to convince us that leaving the EU has been a catastrophe, and so busy looking for scraps of evidence of a slowdown, that they have completely ignored the real danger. In reality, there has been no post-referendum bust — no matter how many economists keep looking for one. But there is a genuine threat of a far more traditional British problem: a runaway consumer boom, fuelled by underpriced debt, which ends up in a nasty crash. Should that happen, the economists, and in particular the Bank of England, will be largely to blame.
Robert will be pleased to see that the savings rate surged in November!
Yay!
(I'm looking at Bloomberg economic releases UK and don't see it. Where are you getting it?)
Surely it wasn’t meant to be like this? In the wake of the vote to leave the EU back in June, mainstream economists were unanimous in their view that we would be in a recession by now. Unemployment would have soared, inflation would be out of control, investment would have evaporated, and the pound would have sunk below parity with both the euro and the dollar......
Instead, the script is very different. Most economists have been so determined to convince us that leaving the EU has been a catastrophe, and so busy looking for scraps of evidence of a slowdown, that they have completely ignored the real danger. In reality, there has been no post-referendum bust — no matter how many economists keep looking for one. But there is a genuine threat of a far more traditional British problem: a runaway consumer boom, fuelled by underpriced debt, which ends up in a nasty crash. Should that happen, the economists, and in particular the Bank of England, will be largely to blame.
On Topic. Why would a Tory PM put her fate in the hands of Labour backbenchers ? If she calls for an Election & fails then she is finished.
She's finished if she loses an election. If she calls for an early election and Labour are too frit to vote for it then they are finished.
I don't think so. All Labour has to say is that there is legislation and there is no need to amend/repeal it now.
A vote to call an early election is not the same as a vote to amend/repeal legislation. It sits within existing legislation and is simply the Commons (no Lords required) voting by two-thirds (including vacant seats) on a motion that "there should be an election on [insert date here".
Voting against that motion is a vote in favour of continuing Tory government. There is no way either Labour or the SNP can vote against that motion.
If they fail to vote for the election then that's a win/win for May. She avoids the risk of a shock defeat altogether AND is given a new mandate to continue ruling by the very MPs who are supposed to oppose her. They will be her mandate.
On Topic. Why would a Tory PM put her fate in the hands of Labour backbenchers ? If she calls for an Election & fails then she is finished.
She's finished if she loses an election. If she calls for an early election and Labour are too frit to vote for it then they are finished.
I don't think so. All Labour has to say is that there is legislation and there is no need to amend/repeal it now.
How can the Opposition seriously oppose an election, if the motion was put before the Commons seeking 2/3 support? Pretty much by definition they are those who seek to replace the government, they should be eager to jump at the chance.
From a purely mathematical standpoint, there need to be 434 votes in favour (2/3 of 650), so around 103 non-Tory MPs, less any that are lost to by-elections in the meantime. More Lab MPs than that passed the vote of no confidence in Corbyn over the summer, so it could yet happen.
On Topic. Why would a Tory PM put her fate in the hands of Labour backbenchers ? If she calls for an Election & fails then she is finished.
She's finished if she loses an election. If she calls for an early election and Labour are too frit to vote for it then they are finished.
I don't think so. All Labour has to say is that there is legislation and there is no need to amend/repeal it now.
A vote to call an early election is not the same as a vote to amend/repeal legislation. It sits within existing legislation and is simply the Commons (no Lords required) voting by two-thirds (including vacant seats) on a motion that "there should be an election on [insert date here".
The Commons doesn't specify a date - and the PM doesn't have a limited time to call the election. So if the Commons passes the appropriate motion (“That there shall be an early parliamentary general election.”), that then appears to give the PM carte blanche to call an election any time before the next scheduled GE!
Robert will be pleased to see that the savings rate surged in November!
Yay!
(I'm looking at Bloomberg economic releases UK and don't see it. Where are you getting it?)
The Times had it this morning.
Just how does the "average adult" have their money structured ?
Salary of x, mortgage of 3x, savings of 0.1x and credit card debts/other loans of 0.2x ?
I honestly have no idea here, I'd guess my personal ratios are more fiscally conservative than most my age though. Those aren't my ratios, just a guess at the average.
On Topic. Why would a Tory PM put her fate in the hands of Labour backbenchers ? If she calls for an Election & fails then she is finished.
She's finished if she loses an election. If she calls for an early election and Labour are too frit to vote for it then they are finished.
I don't think so. All Labour has to say is that there is legislation and there is no need to amend/repeal it now.
A vote to call an early election is not the same as a vote to amend/repeal legislation. It sits within existing legislation and is simply the Commons (no Lords required) voting by two-thirds (including vacant seats) on a motion that "there should be an election on [insert date here".
Voting against that motion is a vote in favour of continuing Tory government. There is no way either Labour or the SNP can vote against that motion.
If they fail to vote for the election then that's a win/win for May. She avoids the risk of a shock defeat altogether AND is given a new mandate to continue ruling by the very MPs who are supposed to oppose her. They will be her mandate.
You are thinking like a Tory.
I'm thinking like a voter.
If Labour and the SNP vote against an early election then every policy that happens for the next three years after that Labour and the SNP oppose will be thrown back in their face as "why didn't you go to the polls then".
Remember the "election that never was" in 2008? After Brown chickened out of that he got slaughtered and he never recovered from that catastrophic loss of credibility. At least Brown had the lame excuse that he was "getting on with the job". Labour don't have that excuse this time.
"We'd rather the Tories get on with the job than face the judgement of the voters" is a catastrophic line to take.
May is dull but conscientious, limited but determined, ultimately a conservative with a very small "c". All of these traits will push her into thinking that she has a difficult but important job to do for the future of this country and that she should not be distracted from it. She is of course perfectly correct in this.
Given these traits and the views she has already expressed there is really no chance at all of her voluntarily going to the polls before Brexit is a done deal. So this is a bet on it being involuntary. The Tories have a small majority and some very difficult decisions to make. Keeping the party and government together through this would have taxed the skill of Cameron and Osborne let alone May and her even duller bank manager. She seems to trust very few people and does not have an Osborne type to put a bit of stick about when required. But to be responsible for bringing down the government that is negotiating Brexit is a very big ask of even the most recalcitrant back benchers. It's possible but its nowhere near a 31% chance.
I t also depends on by-elections. If the Tories cannot win Copeland now, then all the air in the hype about Corbyn and Labour being unelectable will fizzle out.
Remember Labour does not have to win an election. All it needs [ with others ] is to deny the Tories a majority. The two scenarios are not the same.
I would be careful about reading directly across from one to the other. Parliamentary by-elections are the best measure of publicly demonstrated opinion as regards a future general election but they are still not a general election. Crucially, there is not the danger that the government might fall as a result of the vote; protest voting is therefore much more permissible and campaigning on the basis of 'don't let X in' has less potency.
"Salary of x, mortgage of 3x, savings of 0.1x and credit card debts/other loans of 0.2x ?"
In this instance I don't think there is such a thing as an "average adult". Life's demands fluctuate over time and so must their "money structure". At various times I have had ratios higher and lower than those you mention.
That said I suspect that there are an awful lot of people whose non-mortgage loan ratio is far more than 0.2x their salary.
It would be interesting to do a systematic study on this but I reckon the markets are irrationally biased in favour of things happening. Generally speaking things don't happen, and to the extent that they do happen, it's different things, rather than the thing that you thought might happen.
This is so true. It should be formulated as a law. "EdmundInTokyo's Law of The Stuff That Is Actually Going To Happen" or some such.
It would be interesting to do a systematic study on this but I reckon the markets are irrationally biased in favour of things happening. Generally speaking things don't happen, and to the extent that they do happen, it's different things, rather than the thing that you thought might happen.
This is so true. It should be formulated as a law. "EdmundInTokyo's Law of The Stuff That Is Actually Going To Happen" or some such.
Oi. I called that law out ages ago: that punters and commentators consistently over-estimate the probability of change, but that when change does occur, change events are likely to cluster.
5-4-3-2-1: 'This polling is meaningless/skewed/unrepresentative/voodoo'
/all of the above. There are 13 countries there, presumably the other 15 have left and no one noticed or were too wee, too poor and too stupid to be worth asking?
I hadn't thought Greece, Finland & Bulgaria were especially 'big', 'rich' & 'clever' EU players, and of course there may be huge anti EU moves being deliberately concealed in Croatia, Netherlands etc. Or not.
By the Netherlands you're referring to the nation that voted against the European Constitution and has consistently had the Eurosceptic PVV poll in the lead for the last year and a half?
Comments
The politicians certainly have come to terms with it - both major parties are led by Remainers who have now committed to leaving.
What would a GE achieve for Theresa May apart from being a distraction at a critical time and further delaying the invocation of A50 ?
Assuming an increased majority and power until 2022 - what else ? Labour might conceivably react better to the third defeat than to the first two and choose a better leader who, much as Blair did in the mid 90s, might start to look an attractive alternative to the tired old Government and Prime Minister.
The other problem is the small issue of leaving the EU - Theresa May's mandate is to take the vote to LEAVE from 23/6/16 and translate it into the future economic and commercial relationship between the UK and both the EU and the rest of the world - no small task.
An election now would be a pointless distraction however much the Conservative supporters want the chance to win big and rub everyone else's noses in it. Whether the GE is in itself an adequate mechanism to pass judgement on the outcome of the A50 negotiations or whether a referendum on the specific post-EU treaty is required is the key question but the mandate to negotiate already exists.
The outcome however is a different matter.
Given these traits and the views she has already expressed there is really no chance at all of her voluntarily going to the polls before Brexit is a done deal. So this is a bet on it being involuntary. The Tories have a small majority and some very difficult decisions to make. Keeping the party and government together through this would have taxed the skill of Cameron and Osborne let alone May and her even duller bank manager. She seems to trust very few people and does not have an Osborne type to put a bit of stick about when required. But to be responsible for bringing down the government that is negotiating Brexit is a very big ask of even the most recalcitrant back benchers. It's possible but its nowhere near a 31% chance.
"He doesn't have to be an admiral, does he."
Certainly not, Mr. Topping, the last thing one would want in such a post is a senior bod from any of the services. However, having some appreciation of defence issues, an understanding of treaties and their limitations and a proven effectiveness at international negotiation would seem to be pre-requisites. A history of ignoring promises and bending UN resolutions beyond their limits whilst being blind to the consequences of his/her actions should I think put any candidate out of the running.
Personal charm is an ideal qualification for a harlot or gigolo but not for the general secretary of NATO.
Thank God we never get any ego on here...
If not 'ego' then 'ergo' as in 'cogito ergo sum'.
Atalanta's Alejandro Gomez criticised after posting video of shocking two-footed tackle... on his own son
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-4072952/Atalanta-striker-Alejandro-Gomez-criticised-posting-video-shocking-two-footed-tackle-son.html
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/814243788956770305
Just as well £350 million a week is sorting this out.
Why would a Tory PM put her fate in the hands of Labour backbenchers ? If she calls for an Election & fails then she is finished.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/12/29/britains-best-2016/
Weirdly, it was not the NHS headline that immediately caught my attention. Is my focus on PB matters becoming deficient? And, by the way, we haven't left yet. Still paying for the EU.
Mr. Eagles, is that serious or a piss take, though?
The value is I think on a 2019 election, Coral appear to have this at 12/1 if anyone can get on with them. Betfair have it at 6.2 and layable (for an arb with Coral) at 9.2.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/year-of-next-general-election
1. The shops have been very, very quiet post-Christmas.
2. I called for a GP appointment yesterday and was seen within 90 minutes. Had to get a blood test done at the hospital this morning. Was in and out within an hour.
Agree on most of those & good to see Planet Earth win convincingly.....
See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turtles_all_the_way_down
As a Conservative partisan, you're in the ditch with her but those of us who aren't of the Conservative faith can look more dispassionately. Theresa May is the Daily Mail in political form - she is completely representative of their demographic and they will support her come what may (no pun intended) and eulogise her wherever possible as "one of us".
So much depends on the A50 negotiation and the deal we get from the EU. If she can get a deal which can be sold to a sceptical public, she'll win an election and deserve to. If what is served up is a dog's dinner of half promises, vague commitments and aspirations that falls apart under scrutiny, she'll deserved to lose but in the absence of a viable alternative will probably win. The problem will then be the 2020-25 period as the shortcomings of the deal become apparent.
(I'm looking at Bloomberg economic releases UK and don't see it. Where are you getting it?)
El rechazo a la independencia crece en Cataluña
http://elpais.com/ccaa/2016/12/29/catalunya/1483006825_524100.html
In my (considerable) experience of these things our local blood test centre normally requires a wait of an hour; sometimes shorter, rarely longer.
Instead, the script is very different. Most economists have been so determined to convince us that leaving the EU has been a catastrophe, and so busy looking for scraps of evidence of a slowdown, that they have completely ignored the real danger. In reality, there has been no post-referendum bust — no matter how many economists keep looking for one. But there is a genuine threat of a far more traditional British problem: a runaway consumer boom, fuelled by underpriced debt, which ends up in a nasty crash. Should that happen, the economists, and in particular the Bank of England, will be largely to blame.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/12/brexit-hysteria-blinds-us-to-the-real-danger-an-out-of-control-boom/
The savings ratio is still falling - just not quite as much as previously estimated.
"In the first 11 months of 2016, personal deposits grew by £32.4billion collectively, compared with a £19.8billion increase in the same period of 2015."
The rate of borrowing on credit cards etc has slowed too.
"Annual growth in consumer credit - which includes these types of borrowing - fell back to around six per cent in November following an annual rise of over seven per cent in October."
It is strange. There is a lot more money coming from somewhere.
Rates being cut was Carney's ego outweighing his judgement. I expect the same factor to stop them rising to the dizzying heights of 0.5% as fast as they ought.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-38460127
http://uk.businessinsider.com/copeland-by-election-preview-jamie-reed-labour-party-2016-12
Does Labour hold 'many rural seats'? Apart from the other two in Cumbria, two over the Pennines in County Durham, and Anglesea, I can't think of any.
So-called "experts" are often nothing of the sort.
One isn't endowed with limitless confidence in their judgement.
http://sounds.bl.uk/Accents-and-dialects
Voting against that motion is a vote in favour of continuing Tory government. There is no way either Labour or the SNP can vote against that motion.
If they fail to vote for the election then that's a win/win for May. She avoids the risk of a shock defeat altogether AND is given a new mandate to continue ruling by the very MPs who are supposed to oppose her. They will be her mandate.
Remember Labour does not have to win an election. All it needs [ with others ] is to deny the Tories a majority. The two scenarios are not the same.
There are two short & clear lays at the moment in the political betting markets:
The Tories in Copeland and a 2017 General Election.
On interest rates:
They need to head UP.
From a purely mathematical standpoint, there need to be 434 votes in favour (2/3 of 650), so around 103 non-Tory MPs, less any that are lost to by-elections in the meantime.
More Lab MPs than that passed the vote of no confidence in Corbyn over the summer, so it could yet happen.
Salary of x, mortgage of 3x, savings of 0.1x and credit card debts/other loans of 0.2x ?
I honestly have no idea here, I'd guess my personal ratios are more fiscally conservative than most my age though. Those aren't my ratios, just a guess at the average.
If Labour and the SNP vote against an early election then every policy that happens for the next three years after that Labour and the SNP oppose will be thrown back in their face as "why didn't you go to the polls then".
Remember the "election that never was" in 2008? After Brown chickened out of that he got slaughtered and he never recovered from that catastrophic loss of credibility. At least Brown had the lame excuse that he was "getting on with the job". Labour don't have that excuse this time.
"We'd rather the Tories get on with the job than face the judgement of the voters" is a catastrophic line to take.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-38452913
"Salary of x, mortgage of 3x, savings of 0.1x and credit card debts/other loans of 0.2x ?"
In this instance I don't think there is such a thing as an "average adult". Life's demands fluctuate over time and so must their "money structure". At various times I have had ratios higher and lower than those you mention.
That said I suspect that there are an awful lot of people whose non-mortgage loan ratio is far more than 0.2x their salary.
Yes I suppose not too ...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/29/trump-brexit-society-complex-people-populists
It's not a farce for the Opposition if many of their seats are in jeopardy.Moreover if May can change her mind about an election so can Corbyn!