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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Back Sadiq Khan as Next Labour Leader at 33/1
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Back Sadiq Khan as Next Labour Leader at 33/1
Who would have thought a year ago that as 2016 draws to a close, both Nigel Farage and David Cameron would have departed the stage while Jeremy Corbyn looks all the more secure in post? It’s a salutary reminder that there are always risks in getting too far ahead of ourselves. But where there are risks, so there are opportunities.
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Sadiq definitely has a good platform - but partly depends on scale of Corbyn defeat. If it's really bad... He may feel someone else can do the rebuilding job.
Since he's already given up his seat to be Mayor, it would be weird to run for parliament again while still being Mayor, pre-2020: It would be obvious that he was doing it to run for leader, but you're supposed to pretend to think your party's going to win, so it would look disloyal.
If it was after the election, even assuming someone helpful was prepared to stand aside to give him a run, would there be time to do it? Corbyn would have control of his own resignation timetable and presumably he wouldn't go out of his way to be helpful.
The non-Corbynite Labour MPs have really ballsed this up. By refusing to work with Corbyn or serve in the shadow cabinet, they've effectively ruled out any chance of making a name for themselves and thus succeeding him.
On that note, a better bet might be Emily Thornberry who recently had a good PMQs or Keir Starmer who is up against the three stooges on Brexit. But I do not think I will be playing until Corbyn resigns.
Could the LibDems do well in the Manchester mayoral election?
It was a very strong 'Remain' city, with a 60:40 result. The Labour Party doesn't know what it's position is. The LibDems used to do quite well in the region. And it's an election that might be the perfect opportunity for people to cast a protest vote.
Against that, the LibDem activist base is going to be spread out across the rest of the country fighting council election. But, like Norwich South in 2010, this could be an election won on a relatively low vote share. Assume the Tory and UKIP votes hold up well, and a good portion of Labour voters go LibDem, and you could see a shock.
Is anyone offering odds?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Manchester_mayoral_election,_2017
Veteran ITN war correspondent Michael Nicholson, whose career spanned more than five decades, has died aged 79.Nicholson reported on the fall of Saigon in 1975, the Falklands War, the Balkans conflict, the Gulf War and the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Nicholson joined ITN in 1964 and was the network's senior foreign correspondent between 1989 and 1999.
He died while on a cruise with his wife Diana. ITN chief executive John Hardie said he was a "true legend".
As regards the Manchester Mayoral election, here's Oddschecker's current state of play as regards the various possible runners and riders:
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/greater-manchester-mayoral-election/next-mayor
It is perhaps worth pointing out that only one London based leader has ever won an election for Labour - Clement Attlee in 1945 and 1950 (yes, I know Blair was a de facto Londoner, but bear with me).
London is of course our largest and wealthiest city and accounts for I believe over half of Labour's membership. But at the same time it's radically different from the rest of the country where 80% of seats (and votes) are. The population is younger, more mobile and more cosmopolitan, jobs are easier to find and better paid, the systems of housing and education are totally different, and as a result it sometimes feels as if they live on a different planet - one they consider to be infinitely superior.
Brexit may, or may not, be the kick in the balls for the metropolitan elite it is sometimes portrayed as. But it definitely did show not merely a rural/urban divide but a London/the rest divide. By concentrating on such a narrow clique, and not having the chance to understand these differences, Labour are running the very real risk of warping their message to the extent they only appeal to some fraction of the 20% of the population who live in London (broadly defined).
Blair was able to avoid that partly because of the large number of Scots in his cabinet but also because he had big figures from all over the country - Robinson from the south, Johnson, Prescott and Straw from the north, Clare Short from Birmingham. Where would Corbyn get that perspective from? He is, by some distance, the least typical Londoner in his own clique, but to the rest of us he looks identical to the rest of them. Watson might do it, but nobody listens to him. This problem will only get worse with disillusioned MPs heading off to build careers in local politics (e.g. Burnham).
I agree with DH for all these reasons that at 33/1 Khan is grossly overpriced - indeed in the circumstances he should probably be favourite. However, he is not in any way, shape or form the solution to Labour's woes and may even make them worse. They need a bluff northerner with good working class cred to tell the party some truths it doesn't want to hear. And worryingly, there is no sign of such a person.
Fair comment - although it's very possible that by 2020 his "Remain" stance will have been forgotten, or OTOH, remembered as having been the right call!
BTW have I missed the debate on this, but has the "quote" facility with Vanilla now gone for all time or are we simply currently experiencing one of their hiccups?
I sincerely hope it's the latter, otherwise PB.com is likely to suffer considerably.
Go to http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/
I actually always do post through the forums anyway - I prefer my comments chronologically.
There aren't that many left as such are there?
The workaround is to click on the time at the top of the message you want to quote. This takes you to the Vanilla interface which still has the quote button.
Thanks, I'll have to see if I can work this out ..... if I can be bothered that is.
TTFN folks.
But a still bigger problem is that even if such a person can be unearthed, Labour show no sign of being willing to listen to them.
Hey Robert,
Just letting you know that I'm tasking this bug to the developers, it looks like it'll require a patch, so I'm not expecting a fix until early January, as we are about to enter a deploy freeze. However, the report has been filed and we will try to fix it as soon as we can.
Let me know if you have any other questions!
I have complained about the slow service, but I'm not sure I'm going to change commenting systems just to get "reply" back
That 50-1 on the LibDems is worth a fiver, I reckon.
I remain of the view that the next Labour leader could come out of left field with the Labour Party in a funk. There may be real value in some of the long shots.
A couple of possibles would be appreciated. Presumably the first requirement is that they should at least be media savvy?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1AF_-2rU0GY
I am not at all convinced that the Kippers will do well in the Northern ipost industrial seats, and if Labour's hesitent moves to an immigration controlled, protectionist pro-welfare state policy (Red Brexit) come off, then UKIP are toast.
It didn't end particularly well for her as I recall.
If race and gender were all important then Chris Bryant would be leading Labour. This would be because Diane Abbott would have led the party from 2010 to 2015 and he would be the sole surviving Labour MP.
Type "Jeremy Corbyn" into your phone. And then let predictive text do the rest. Only choose the middle option
Jeremy Corbyn into the high teens and the US than the TPP the LibDems didn't even stand in the UK over the last read it.
I would be very far from astonished if a negative campaign against an 'out-of-touch metropolitan elite' split sufficient votes from Labour to allow the Conservatives and possibly the Liberal Democrats to make significant gains at their expense.
Some of the women MPs from the 2015 intake might be worth a punt.
The Momentum types seem to hate her with a vengance.
The next question to them should be what changed at 20:00GMT on 15th? The odds of a random bug removing the quote button are lower than the chance that something changed somewhere to cause the issue.
Is this affecting other Vanilla customers with integrated comments I wonder - anyone know any?
Richard Holloway
On this day in 1983, an IRA bomb killed six Christmas shoppers outside Harrods.
A bomb planted by Mr Corbyn's 'friends'...
Will May win a majority? I am not so sure, and in a NOC situation the Labour Leader could be critical. Labour may well want someone who contrasts with May's lack of personal skills, though if May loses her majority she is probably for the chop anyway. Tories are unforgiving that way.
On the boundaries Stella will either be fine, or in a fight-off with John Cryer for the one safe seat, depending on which way the Commission goes.
All the recent insurgencies have been led by people who are just as much part of the elite as those they accuse of being out of touch: Trump, Farage, Johnson, Le Pen and so on. Corbyn as you point out is metropolitan to his fingernails. Maybe this will change by 2020, but Khan isn't obviously disadvantaged. He's Asian which helps compensate for not being female. Lack of diversity is an issue for Labour members, which helps him get past the first stage towards being prime minister - it becoming Labour Party leader.
A plausible bet. Not sure if I've really backed him, though.
Mr. 43, maybe. We'd have a better idea if (admittedly a very different) London mayor could fly as leader if Boris had become PM.
True, the insurgencies have been led by insiders. However they were insiders who, usually by accident admittedly, came up with popular messages that resonated with a wide proportion of the electorate.
Is Corbyn endlessly banging on about Southern Trains going on strike over driver-only trains going to win him votes in the Midlands where the need is for upgraded infrastructure? I would suggest not. Is his suggestion of banning fossil fuel cars going to win him friends in the mining areas of Durham? No. Is his stance on the IRA or Hamas going to make him friends in Cheshire? That doesn't even need answering. Do these policies play well with the tiny handful of people he actually listens to? Yes. Is that a disaster for Labour? I think Ed Miliband would have the answer.
The LDs do have a traditional base of support, but surely hard for Burnham to lose?
Of course the LDs are a party led by a working class northerner...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38347674
I've backed him on Betfair, (and not laid him).
Sadiq Khan 44.00 £5.00 £215.00
Although the current 14/100 price offering on Betfair is one to not take either side of ! (Don't back 14 and don't lay 100)
"Muslim woman shoved to ground and dragged along pavement in 'sickening' attack in busy street
She was left lying on the floor for almost 20 minutes after the attack by two white men"
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/muslim-woman-knocked-down-and-dragged-along-pavement-in-sickening-attack-in-busy-street-a3421971.html
The temptations of Mayoral office are obvious to those with any sort of ambition in the Labour Party. So obvious that even the dimmest have worked it out such as the candidate for greater Manchester.
"OK. Just a thought.
Could the LibDems do well in the Manchester mayoral election?
It was a very strong 'Remain' city, with a 60:40 result. The Labour Party doesn't know what it's position is."
Why else would they have picked Andy Burnham as candidate. Good to see Andy addressing the boys and girls of Unite in the run up to the Christmas strikes at Manchester airport.
given some other rumbliings over government plans over there I'm surprised there's no comment from the eu. Probably thinking it best to stay out of this one.
By the way, this quote debacle doesn't have to be an issue. It's much easier to follow the convo on
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/4393/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-back-sadiq-khan-as-next-labour-leader-at-33-1#latest
And the quotes work
Draw 60.3%
Ind 6.2% is what Cricviz reckons.
I expect the successor to Corbyn to be one of Starmer, Lewis or Khan. At this moment it's probably odds on it being either one of those three or a female MP.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-38341539
It's incredible to think that if gaddafi had had any friends of note, internationally, he'd still be there today, or his sons, as the unresolution would have been vetoed.
http://tinyurl.com/jzugtf8
For what it's worth, here's how Greater Manchester voted in the 2015 General Election:
Labour - 46.2%
Conservative - 26.7%
Ukip - 15.4%
Liberal Democrat - 7.3%
Green - 3.6%
Independent - 0.2%
Others - 0.6%
Just taking time to let that idea sink in.
The future of the Labour Party. Emily Thornberry.
Righto.....
The future of British car manufacturing. The Austin Allegro.
The future of British Cuisine. The Pot Noodle.
The future of Cool Britannia. Tony Blair.
The future of the Liberal Democrats. Ming Campbell.
I honestly think there is a lucrative business to be set up by pb.com, where a panel of contributors is brought in by politicians or businessmen or whoever, and utilising our various areas of expertise, we listen to their proposal before us.
Then, after a short period of consultation between us, we each pick up an enormo-herring and batter them around the head until that idea dies a rather gruesome death.
The future of the Labour Party - Emily Thornberry - could be one we run through as a freebie, just to show how well the project could work.
Well every loss the loser does not like or understand is is now being blamed on Putin hacks so why should PB be any different.
We had Obarma and the Democrats saying they lost the US election because of Putin hacks and even the EU referendum result being blamed on Putin hacks by Bradshaw. The classic we lost but we will find some reason, any reason to discredit, undermine or de- litgitamise the vote. Expect lots more of this along the lines well it was unfair you won because of Putin. The fairytale becomes a meme then becomes urban legend. Just look at BBC news and Sky news reporting ias if it did actually happen. No eveidence of it though only inferred by those whose epic fail stated beyond doubt there were Iraq missiles and chemical weapons that could be launched in 45 minutes
Reds under the beds and swivel eyed loons indeed.
She's an MP, in with Corbyn's lot but still gets on with the moderates - she can
a) Get the nominations if she wishes,
b) Potentially win.
The fact that she is a woman counts against her more than any lack of ability.
I still think she's more likely to end up as Lewis' principle backer though.
On the other hand she is a woman and she has successful reprogrammed herself as a hard left, British flag hater, and anti-nuclear fanatic despite being one of Blair's late babes.
An idea never allowed to run its course. When required, the Tory Party can reach for the enormo-haddock unaided...
More or less stated yesterday iIRC that apart from a spike in the first three months of the year, celebrities were dying at about the same rate as in previous years.
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-38329740
Conservative - 27.4%
Liberal Democrat - 23.9%
BNP - 3.2%
Ukip - 3.2%
Green - 0.6%
Independent - 0.7%
Others - 0.9%
That said, he's a centrist with no strong known views on national affairs, and that's not usually a winning stance in Labour leader selections. Any candidate to his left - Thornberry and Lewis are the obvious ones,and Thornberry is better-rated by Labour members than the comments here might suggest (people seem hung up on the fact that she's married to a peer, so what) - would start with an edge. More generally, betting on individuals in an open field several years ahead is usually a bookie's dream - there are hundreds of people who might come to the fore in the meantime.
On the London issue, I'm not convinced that it plays as strongly as one might think - just as Nuttall isn't going to sweep Yorkshire just because he comes from Merseyside, non-London voters primarily judge people on other issues. Scotland may be the exception.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/16/last-acceptable-prejudice-pale-stale-males
Outside of the leafy Cheshire borders and the Quinoa-munching denizens of Didsbury i'm not sure the refendum vote will have quite as much salience as some expect. These are places the Lib dems used to win in previous elections anyway.
Pale, stale males need nor worry though, apparently it is not one of the acceptable prejudices, as I was instructed to remove a reference to them as part of a longstanding jokey comment on picturing the average local Councillor.
This comment, however, was completely unacceptable:
Before we proceed any further, let us concur that all prejudices are bad – amirite, kids? – with obvious exceptions, such as ones against Sting or Formula One
I'm on board with Sting, but F1? How dare you?
Richard Burgon, Angela Rayner, Cat Smith.
As such, all plausible candidates for the top job. We'll look back on the current period as a golden era. Much as we do with Ed today.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Lib Dems will come either third or second, but there are vast swathes of GM where their message does not resonate. Hell, in some boroughs they don't even bother standing any candidates at all.
"I still think she's more likely to end up as Lewis' principle backer though."
I suspect you mean 'principal' backer as Emily doesn't have principles.