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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories lose all 4 seats they were defending on the worst election night for the party since TMay became leader
Bovey (Teignbridge) result:LDEM: 43.9% (+20.3)CON: 33.1% (-4.2)IND: 8.9% (-1.5)LAB: 5.4% (-7.4)UKIP: 5.1% (+5.1)IND: 3.6% (+3.6)
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My grandmother is in Torbay. She votes Lib Dem in locals because she likes the cut of their local politics involvement.
She laughs at the national party. And makes Maggie look like a pussycat....
The Tory private polling in the South West at the last general election showed the Lib Dem to Con defectors really really really liked David Cameron on every metric, as a person, as a politician, as Prime Minister, which was reciprocated as he loved holidaying in that part of the world.
Mrs May doesn't have that level of support, and to be fair, apart from Ken Clarke, I don't think any other Tory could match Cameron's level of support in this part of the country.
48% might not win you a binary choice referendum, but it might win you a lot in a FPTP election.
I'm not pure red enough for the greens, not angry enough for UKIP or labour, too questioning and coalition Like for the tories, and not Euro friendly enough for the lds.
That is probably the worst news of the lot for the Conservatives - since that WILL translate across to a GE.
Good for DC - but I'd rather win 35 seats off Labour in the Midlands and northern urban fringe than be positioned nationally to win 15 seats in the SW and pissing off much of the activist base....
Especially as those seats are never going to vote Labour...
I remember on election night when a 14.4% swing in Gordon looked very disappointing when compared to the rest of Scotland.
14.4%!!!!
Trebles all round for that result
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/15/britain-will-handed-50bn-exit-bill-eu-theresa-may-triggers-article/
If we're to be on the hook for liabilities, ought we not to get a corresponding share of the assets ?
Tony Gallagher
Cops monitored every call in and out of the @TheNorthernEcho for two days. Horrifying https://t.co/dxKCQDeawX
Talking to a fervent Corbynista at an Xmas party last night.
She likes May. Warms to here. And thinks she's far more in touch with the average voter than Cameron or (chortle) Osborne could ever be...
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/809698320704802816
The evens bet on a general election before 2020 isn't too bad. Though I'm effectively on the same bet for far better effective odds having backed individual years.
I guess the LibDems got their Protest Party back again.
They were on course to comfortably go blue even before the Ed in Salmond's pocket posters.
Are they doing Ukip vs Lib Dems? Looks like they think it's 50/50
You should probably look up the meaning of the word sanguine.
The Blackburn result puts UKIP into some context. It is immensely patronising and very middle class to believe that having a hard-right, economically bone dry leader with a Scouse accent is going to see working class Labour voters flocking to back UKIP. The party has to put in a lot more work than that. Immigration could be a major calling card for UKIP, but it needs to be combined with other stuff as well. That fabled left turn actually has to happen. Nuttall is not on the left in any meaningful way, neither is UKIP's membership.
The SNP defeated Labour in Scotland by putting in the very hard yards: years and years of local campaigning and taking social democratic positions in a way that alienated and ultimately drove away the party's centre-right, nationalist stalwarts.
The LDs themselves for sure - 10 more seats? 20? Who knows.
Labour - Oh dear. The left is resplitting. Northern/central/suburban marginals looking even more dicey.
Tories - Hmmm. SW losses but marginal gains from Labour. Overall quite positive I think due to left resplitting effect.
UKIP - Can't see any real impact.
At GE? Tories up. LDs up. Lab down. = Healthy majority.
It was a psy-ops campaign, apparently it convinced Paddy Ashdown that Dave and the Tories didn't have a clue about the general election.
"You don't need to look like Benjamin Disraeli if your opponent is the latter day Marquis of Granby. Just looking sane and normal would be enough"
I used to use a pub called the Marquis of Granby but I have never heard of a boozer named after Disraeli. So perhaps the former had something going for him.
On the subject of pubs named after politicians: in the fifties a new one was built in Battersea on the site of one that had been bombed during the war. It was given a new name - The Herbert Morrison. I have never heard of another public house that was named after a modern politician or a Labour politician or a politician who was still alive at the time.
On that happy note I am off for my morning walk.
Medium term = during A50 negotiations
Long term = while transition deal is in effect
Even if Brexit goes according to plan we could have two more general elections before we're 'out'.
The by-elections were positive yesterday for the Lib Dems and poor for the Conservatives. I've been saying for a while that the Con vote share is potentially soft and that the government hasn't always displayed unity and purpose, particularly on Brexit.
All the same, come the general election, when the government of the country is up for grabs, very different dynamics will come into play. Likewise, parties' machines will be tested rather more thoroughly than in a low turnout by-election.
Right now the interesting poll finding IMO is that Farron has relatively good favourability ratings, but is much less well known than May or Corbyn. That potentially sets him up for an "I agree with Nick" moment.
Adjective
sanguine (comparative more sanguine, superlative most sanguine)
1.Having the colour of blood; red.
2.(obsolete, physiology) Having a bodily constitution characterised by a preponderance of blood over the other bodily humours, thought to be marked by irresponsible mirth; indulgent in pleasure to the exclusion of important matters. [quotations ▼]
3.Characterized by abundance and active circulation of blood. a sanguine bodily temperament
4.Warm; ardent. a sanguine temper
5.Anticipating the best; optimistic; not despondent; confident; full of hope. [quotations ▼]
sanguine of success
Seems about right!
I don't think those on the left yet realise how liberating and energising recent months have been for those tired of listening to all the hectoring for years and years have been.
But yes, targetting the Remain voters makes sense for the Lib Dems. Even if the '48' is in reality only half of that due to those Remainers, who, like me, now accept that the right thing to do is to implement the referendum decision, are no longer in play to a party seeking to minimise or even reverse the referendum result.
Hannan'll be talking about unicorns next.
Raindrops on roses
And whiskers on kittens
True blue Brexit with which I am smitten
Empire nostalgia making my heart sing
These are a few of my favorite things
Are kids still taught sea shanties anywhere? I know the words to a dozen of them.
For their part, the conservatives have a personable leader but their position is flattered by the same constitutional issue that damages Labour.
Even if Labour unites around 'Red Brexit', they'll be fighting in a very crowded field in 'Brexit land' and will be abandoning their metropolitan base.
If an electorate is split down the middle there is a very big potential prize for a party that can clearly articulate the feelings of one side - even if that side happens to be below 50%.
(And in one of them, the 'Tory' didn't have access to Con Party data or canvass records, so had to fight the election blind).
What we need is by elections in marginals, according to informed observers we should get a by election in Thanet South, I'd love to see by elections in say places like Yeovil and Derby North
The Lib Dems have a huge structural advantage now.
Grey's Monument is our Trafalgar Sq. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grey's_Monument
Grey's Monument is a Grade I listed monument to Charles Grey, 2nd Earl Grey built in 1838 in the centre of Newcastle upon Tyne, England. It was erected to acclaim Earl Grey for the passing of the Great Reform Act of 1832 and stands at the head of Grey Street. It consists of a statue of Lord Grey standing atop a 130-foot-high (40 m) column. The column was designed by local architects John and Benjamin Green, and the statue was created by the sculptor Edward Hodges Baily (creator of Nelson's statue in Trafalgar Square).[1]
The other downside of the lurch to the right and the consequent detox of the Lib Dems is that the spectre of tactical voting against the Tories rears its head again.
No, it was in Bath, which is all gentry anyway, I think.
There was also a radical overhaul of their campaign infrastructure as well.
Politicians get scared very very easily, south West MPs will not be offering up their jobs after a year !
Anyone who has backed it at a short price is in for Brownian disappointment !
(Which isn't to say that RIPA isn't too broadly drawn but that's a different issue from police going on fishing trips). If they didn't abuse RIPA, they'd abuse some other legislation - anti-terrorism seemed to be favoured a little while ago.
Apparently had all the mod cons when James Boswell stayed there with Samuel Johnson in the 18th century. Limited investment in the premises since then, though.
(A former leader of his party who led them to a bad election defeat, but I guess time heals all wounds)
In fact I think it's one of those places who's reputation long outlasted the actualité, perfectly ok the times I've been in.
And please no one come back with that 'May said she doesn't want one so it won't happen' crap. Of course she said that, but if she thought she'd win big, she'd find a way to do it, having reassessed the situation.
It was raided by the police every week and populated entirely by bikers. It was brilliant and very friendly if hardcore. The owner Hazel was about 7st and 60. Her rule was absolute. Her son spent time in Durham jail for GBH and washed glasses so badly the lipstick was still on them.