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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guido says the Tories are bracing themselves for charges over

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    "Brexit: French financial regulator wooing London banks"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38245646

    They'll be a lot of this psyching going on now the Commons has overwhelmingly voted for Brexit. The world has seen the ChairmannfvNissan walk in and out of the front door of Downing St and announce " I've received the assurances I needed. " Assurances neither the British parliament nor taxpayer can be told about. The first companies to stay or leave will get great deals. The 55th company not so much. So it makes sense for parties in what will be trilateral negotiations ( at least ) to posture like this. They'll be no end to it for months. Maybe years.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,045

    kle4 said:

    "Brexit: French financial regulator wooing London banks"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38245646

    Would he be so public with it if it were not on the cards, or is it more of a pressure thing, I wonder.
    They're doing exactly what we'd be doing in their circumstances, and I daresay the banks and institutions are sniffing around to see what sort of deal they could get.

    We need to make better offers, and use our advantages well. But do we have the ministerial team to do that?
    Yes fill the pockets of the rich crooks , just what we need.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,191
    PlatoSaid said:

    :smiley:

    Christopher Snowden
    "You asked me once, Winston, what was in Room 101. The thing that is in Room 101 is the worst thing in the world." https://t.co/Qvr6jjs64E

    Blimey!
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    Miss Plato, yes, Meg.

    Miles different to her predecessor, who was far quieter, and such a tidy drinker the water levels in the bowl had to be checked just to make sure he was actually drinking anything.
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    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    I see Boris has been filmed saying Iran and Saudi Arabia act as puppeteers playing proxy wars in the Middle East. I guess that's something completely true which everyone knows but is not supposed to say, when foreign secretary?

    Especially not on the day the PM is guest at the GCC conference in Bahrain!
    The Guardian say the comments were made at a conference last week ( he was also photographed waiving a briefing note marked ' sensitive ' in front of the Camera so it was readable ). Yet they were leaked yesterday while May was at the GCC. So Boris strike against May ? Or Soft Brexit FCO manderins striking against Boris ?
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited December 2016

    Another opportunity (or gaping hole in electoral law) exploited by the Conservative Party was the use of Youtube to evade broadcasting restrictions.

    True indeed and where they have broken the law then they should be held fully to account.

    However, as it was not illegal to use YouTube your use of the word "evade" in your post in an attempt to insinuate some illegality or breaking of the law had occurred is incorrect and the word should be "avoid."

    But You knew that already of course which is why you purposely used the word "evade" to infer and smear something illegal had been done.
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    Miss Plato, yes, Meg.

    Miles different to her predecessor, who was far quieter, and such a tidy drinker the water levels in the bowl had to be checked just to make sure he was actually drinking anything.

    I've started your new book.
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    kle4 said:

    I see Boris has been filmed saying Iran and Saudi Arabia act as puppeteers playing proxy wars in the Middle East. I guess that's something completely true which everyone knows but is not supposed to say, when foreign secretary?

    Especially when you can add us, the yanks and the russkies to the charge sheet. Maybe the rules have changed in the Trump era.
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    tlg86 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    :smiley:

    Christopher Snowden
    "You asked me once, Winston, what was in Room 101. The thing that is in Room 101 is the worst thing in the world." https://t.co/Qvr6jjs64E

    Blimey!
    Exactly. Typical BBC QT right-wing bias -- three Tories and only one Labour (and one from the Will "up him" Self party).
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,310
    Moses_ said:

    Another opportunity (or gaping hole in electoral law) exploited by the Conservative Party was the use of Youtube to evade broadcasting restrictions.

    True indeed and where they have broken the law then they should be held to count.

    However as it was not illegal to use YouTube your use of the word "evade" in your post in an attempt to insinuate illegality or breaking of the law is incorrect the word it is "avoid."

    But You already know that of course which is why you purposely used the word "evade" to infer something illegal had been done.
    I suggest that is arguable either way.

    Although most of the focus has been on the hired bus and hotels, personally I think the direct mail is the greater breach.

    If the local agent had produced exactly the same mailshot and posted it locally, there would be no argument that it was local expenditure, and not declaring it would be a clear breach of the law. Sending exactly the same addressed mailshot from a pillar box in SW1 shouldn't change things, and I don't see how a letter that is only going to be read by a voter in Torbay can ever be considered national expenditure just because it omits the local candidate's name?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,857

    kle4 said:

    I see Boris has been filmed saying Iran and Saudi Arabia act as puppeteers playing proxy wars in the Middle East. I guess that's something completely true which everyone knows but is not supposed to say, when foreign secretary?

    Especially when you can add us, the yanks and the russkies to the charge sheet. Maybe the rules have changed in the Trump era.
    Given he, I believe, wants the US less involved directly, I'd guess American proxy efforts will actually increase! Even if he planned to just not get involved even proxy style, they probably all start out like that. I doubt Obama planned to use do many drone strikes.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    IanB2 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    IanB2 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    But pretty clear that in this sort of thing the general refrain 'they're all at it' is true, the degree just varies from place to place.
    My point was that Crick did investigate labour...

    He does also say: In every single seat we’ve looked at, the costs of the Labour Express would not have pushed the candidate over the limit, even if they had been declared in full as local spending.

    So your summary perhaps underplays the scale of difference between labour and tory bus spending.
    I think the bottom line is that most parties' national effort and national staff are likely to be focused principally on the their target seats, but the Tories have brought brought about the current controversy by formalising this into a minor industry with centrally funded mass-mailshots and free travel and accommodation for bus loads of helpers.
    Agreed. Do you know why there is a national vs. local distinction? Wouldn't it be easier to just have one overall budget and let parties spend it as they see fit?
    As anyone who has ever had to fill in the forms will know - like most of British democracy - the paperwork, terminology and rules are mostly unchanged since the 19th Century.

    Originally there were only local candidates and local spending, and these were the original expenses rules that worked fine until the media age, when a much looser national limit was slapped on top to provide some constraint (not that it really does) on what the national parties could spend. I vaguely recall the latter being an innovation during the New Labour era, hoping to cap the Tory advantage in national financing.

    Unless it has changed very recently, the constituency paperwork looks like something from an historical archive; when I first started out, the party issued copious guidance on how to back-translate a modern campaign into a format that a 19th Century squire would recognise; nowadays I think most agents write something like "see attached sheet" on the form and then submit something that looks like the budgeting spreadsheet for a small enterprise.
    That's very interesting thanks. Sounds like system is ripe for reform...
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    Mr. Submarine, huzzah!

    [I hope you finish it, too].
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    IanB2 said:

    Moses_ said:

    Another opportunity (or gaping hole in electoral law) exploited by the Conservative Party was the use of Youtube to evade broadcasting restrictions.

    True indeed and where they have broken the law then they should be held to count.

    However as it was not illegal to use YouTube your use of the word "evade" in your post in an attempt to insinuate illegality or breaking of the law is incorrect the word it is "avoid."

    But You already know that of course which is why you purposely used the word "evade" to infer something illegal had been done.
    I suggest that is arguable either way.

    Although most of the focus has been on the hired bus and hotels, personally I think the direct mail is the greater breach.

    If the local agent had produced exactly the same mailshot and posted it locally, there would be no argument that it was local expenditure, and not declaring it would be a clear breach of the law. Sending exactly the same addressed mailshot from a pillar box in SW1 shouldn't change things, and I don't see how a letter that is only going to be read by a voter in Torbay can ever be considered national expenditure just because it omits the local candidate's name?
    Then so is it on tax evasion / avoidance..... But of course it isn't .....is it?

    Next.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,310
    rkrkrk said:

    IanB2 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    IanB2 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    ."
    Well there's a surprise!


    But pretty clear that in this sort of thing the general refrain 'they're all at it' is true, the degree just varies from place to place.
    My point was that Crick did investigate labour...

    He does also say: In every single seat we’ve looked at, the costs of the Labour Express would not have pushed the candidate over the limit, even if they had been declared in full as local spending.

    So your summary perhaps underplays the scale of difference between labour and tory bus spending.
    I think the bottom line is that most parties' national effort and national staff are likely to be focused principally on the their target seats, but the Tories have brought brought about the current controversy by formalising this into a minor industry with centrally funded mass-mailshots and free travel and accommodation for bus loads of helpers.
    Agreed. Do you know why there is a national vs. local distinction? Wouldn't it be easier to just have one overall budget and let parties spend it as they see fit?
    As anyone who has ever had to fill in the forms will know - like most of British democracy - the paperwork, terminology and rules are mostly unchanged since the 19th Century.

    Originally there were only local candidates and local spending, and these were the original expenses rules that worked fine until the media age, when a much looser national limit was slapped on top to provide some constraint (not that it really does) on what the national parties could spend. I vaguely recall the latter being an innovation during the New Labour era, hoping to cap the Tory advantage in national financing.

    Unless it has changed very recently, the constituency paperwork looks like something from an historical archive; when I first started out, the party issued copious guidance on how to back-translate a modern campaign into a format that a 19th Century squire would recognise; nowadays I think most agents write something like "see attached sheet" on the form and then submit something that looks like the budgeting spreadsheet for a small enterprise.
    That's very interesting thanks. Sounds like system is ripe for reform...
    As is pretty much everything concerned with voting, elections and parliament....
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,857

    Mr. Submarine, huzzah!

    [I hope you finish it, too].

    Haven't started my copy, but I will. The downside with ebooks is at least unread physicals can be used as paperweights, doorstops or to impress people on a shelf. You actually need to read ebooks to get any use.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,919
    Hat tip to @ScottP on the evening thread for the CommonsVotes app by the way. Details of every vote register going back to March this year, searchable by vote and by member.

    Very good engagement from the HoC marketing and IT teams. :)
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    Mr. kle4, you should. It might just be the best book I've written (perhaps excepting Sir Edric, but that depends whether you want bloody treachery, or a man who is mostly drunk going on escapades with his trusty manservant).
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,052
    Might a way around this be for local expenses to be counted as they are at the moment, and the total national spending (excluding the local) separately. Then divide the national by the number of constituencies stood in, then add that onto the local spend?

    The local limit would have to be increased to compensate, and there will be ways around this, but it seems there might be less loopholes. It'd also be harder to compute during campaigns: they'd have to have a good idea of what the national spend would be before they start their local campaigns.

    But if they want to govern us, they should be able to do that.
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    Moses_ said:

    Another opportunity (or gaping hole in electoral law) exploited by the Conservative Party was the use of Youtube to evade broadcasting restrictions.

    True indeed and where they have broken the law then they should be held fully to account.

    However, as it was not illegal to use YouTube your use of the word "evade" in your post in an attempt to insinuate some illegality or breaking of the law had occurred is incorrect and the word should be "avoid."

    But You knew that already of course which is why you purposely used the word "evade" to infer and smear something illegal had been done.
    No. I mean what I wrote which is an entirely fair description and I cannot see what difference your quibbling about words makes. Of course the Conservatives used Youtube to show videos that could not be shown on television because it was legal. That is why they did it. Does evasion imply criminality anywhere apart from tax? If a politician evades questions, no-one supposes he should be arrested for disrespecting Jeremy Paxman. Your attempted smokescreen is absurd but if you prefer the other word, then fine but as you can see when it is substituted, the result is clumsy as it reads at first glance that it is the broadcasting of restrictions that is being avoided.

    Another opportunity (or gaping hole in electoral law) exploited by the Conservative Party was the use of Youtube to avoid broadcasting restrictions.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Where is David L , Southam Observer and all the others who always seem to have a downer on English Cricket

    Jennings has just made 100 after being dropped on 0/.. Huzzah.
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    tlg86 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    :smiley:

    Christopher Snowden
    "You asked me once, Winston, what was in Room 101. The thing that is in Room 101 is the worst thing in the world." https://t.co/Qvr6jjs64E

    Blimey!
    Exactly. Typical BBC QT right-wing bias -- three Tories and only one Labour (and one from the Will "up him" Self party).
    Tell me Mensch isn't out on manoeuvres!!!
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,191
    The police investigation also covers inquiries into £36,000 in donations made to Mackintosh’s local Conservative association and people associated with him by Howard Grossman, whose company, 1st Land, was contracted to manage the Sixfields development.

    Despite the bulk of the money being paid to Grossman’s company, the firm building the new stand, Buckingham Group, stopped work in early 2015 having not been paid £1.9m they were owed, with 1st Land put into administration.


    That does not look good.
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    tlg86 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    :smiley:

    Christopher Snowden
    "You asked me once, Winston, what was in Room 101. The thing that is in Room 101 is the worst thing in the world." https://t.co/Qvr6jjs64E

    Blimey!
    Exactly. Typical BBC QT right-wing bias -- three Tories and only one Labour (and one from the Will "up him" Self party).
    Tell me Mensch isn't out on manoeuvres!!!
    To be cynical, it looks like a legitimate way of turning a holiday into a business trip.
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    tlg86 said:

    If this is true, it shows that David Cameron was more concerned with stopping Farage than winning the General Election itself. I'm sure PB Tories will be delighted with that.

    Nonsense on stilts from you.

    Dave really wanted a majority above all else, and there was one seat Dave wanted to win more than any other seat and it wasn't Thanet South, it was Rochester and Strood.

    I don't know why, but the defection of Mark Reckless really wound up a lot of Tories, Tories who are normally very cool and rational but it brought out the bloodlust in us them to kick Mark Reckless' fat arse.
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    tlg86 said:

    The police investigation also covers inquiries into £36,000 in donations made to Mackintosh’s local Conservative association and people associated with him by Howard Grossman, whose company, 1st Land, was contracted to manage the Sixfields development.

    Despite the bulk of the money being paid to Grossman’s company, the firm building the new stand, Buckingham Group, stopped work in early 2015 having not been paid £1.9m they were owed, with 1st Land put into administration.


    That does not look good.
    Labour only 10% behind Tories in Northampton South
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northampton_South_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,919
    I wonder if the solution to the spending limits isn't to have a combined spending limit of say £100k per candidate standing, so £6m over the election period - then leave it up to the parties to allocate this spending as they see fit, whether to phone banks, national campaigning, social media, battle buses, mail shots, door knockers etc.

    This would allow for marginal targeting and national campaigning, while getting rid of anomalies such as the PM visiting but not being allowed to say vote for the local candidate, or a bus full of students having to stay 20 miles away to avoid hotel bills in a particular constituency.

    If the EC can get the value right, they will even be able to *reduce* the overall spending limits therefore making elections cheaper to contest while allowing local independents more spending if they wish.

    Reinforce this with draconian penalties for overspending and have named party officials personally responsible, who can be barred from office by a judge for any egrarious breaches of spending limits.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,052
    tlg86 said:

    The police investigation also covers inquiries into £36,000 in donations made to Mackintosh’s local Conservative association and people associated with him by Howard Grossman, whose company, 1st Land, was contracted to manage the Sixfields development.

    Despite the bulk of the money being paid to Grossman’s company, the firm building the new stand, Buckingham Group, stopped work in early 2015 having not been paid £1.9m they were owed, with 1st Land put into administration.


    That does not look good.
    It's been developing for some time. And no, it doesn't look good.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,857
    Sandpit said:

    I wonder if the solution to the spending limits isn't to have a combined spending limit of say £100k per candidate standing, so £6m over the election period - then leave it up to the parties to allocate this spending as they see fit, whether to phone banks, national campaigning, social media, battle buses, mail shots, door knockers etc.

    This would allow for marginal targeting and national campaigning, while getting rid of anomalies such as the PM visiting but not being allowed to say vote for the local candidate, or a bus full of students having to stay 20 miles away to avoid hotel bills in a particular constituency.

    If the EC can get the value right, they will even be able to *reduce* the overall spending limits therefore making elections cheaper to contest while allowing local independents more spending if they wish.

    Reinforce this with draconian penalties for overspending and have named party officials personally responsible, who can be barred from office by a judge for any egrarious breaches of spending limits.

    The only issue I have with the last point is you're bound to get party officials with no interest in standing for office, and so who might be willing to take one for the team and oversee breaches. Would depend on what the party rather than individual penalty was I guess.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,191

    tlg86 said:

    If this is true, it shows that David Cameron was more concerned with stopping Farage than winning the General Election itself. I'm sure PB Tories will be delighted with that.

    Nonsense on stilts from you.

    Dave really wanted a majority above all else, and there was one seat Dave wanted to win more than any other seat and it wasn't Thanet South, it was Rochester and Strood.

    I don't know why, but the defection of Mark Reckless really wound up a lot of Tories, Tories who are normally very cool and rational but it brought out the bloodlust in us them to kick Mark Reckless' fat arse.
    How much did the Tories overspend by in Rochester then?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,857
    In fairness, I believe pclipp has been banging the drum on Tory overspending since before the ge. Though I still say it's still the public choosing to listen which is key, the tories coukd flood East Ham with money and activists and not win.
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    tlg86 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    :smiley:

    Christopher Snowden
    "You asked me once, Winston, what was in Room 101. The thing that is in Room 101 is the worst thing in the world." https://t.co/Qvr6jjs64E

    Blimey!
    Exactly. Typical BBC QT right-wing bias -- three Tories and only one Labour (and one from the Will "up him" Self party).
    Tell me Mensch isn't out on manoeuvres!!!
    To be cynical, it looks like a legitimate way of turning a holiday into a business trip.
    Could be an expensive business trip when/if she libels half a dozen people on live TV. Somebody should ask about the state of science journalism.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,751
    Britain is in a weak negotiating position because it has preempted its own BATNA - best alternative to negotiated agreement. Britain's BATNA is to stay put: we won't budge until we get a framework we're happy with. If that means prenegotiarions before calling Article 50, so be it. We're not going to be bounced into artificial deadlines.

    The problem is that the government doesn't dare delay calling Article 50 because of internal pressure from party elements. Once Article 50 is called the risk is that the negotiations will run out without any substantial agreement. That outcome is the EU's BATNA. They are after a clean break, ideally a negotiated one, but they can live without it.
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    GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191

    Where is David L , Southam Observer and all the others who always seem to have a downer on English Cricket

    Watching the cricket?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,919

    tlg86 said:

    The police investigation also covers inquiries into £36,000 in donations made to Mackintosh’s local Conservative association and people associated with him by Howard Grossman, whose company, 1st Land, was contracted to manage the Sixfields development.

    Despite the bulk of the money being paid to Grossman’s company, the firm building the new stand, Buckingham Group, stopped work in early 2015 having not been paid £1.9m they were owed, with 1st Land put into administration.


    That does not look good.
    Labour only 10% behind Tories in Northampton South
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northampton_South_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    He's very likely to get deselected by his local association, if only to avoid damaging the reputation of anyone else who may have been involved on the council.
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    Sandpit said:

    I wonder if the solution to the spending limits isn't to have a combined spending limit of say £100k per candidate standing, so £6m over the election period - then leave it up to the parties to allocate this spending as they see fit, whether to phone banks, national campaigning, social media, battle buses, mail shots, door knockers etc.

    This would allow for marginal targeting and national campaigning, while getting rid of anomalies such as the PM visiting but not being allowed to say vote for the local candidate, or a bus full of students having to stay 20 miles away to avoid hotel bills in a particular constituency.

    If the EC can get the value right, they will even be able to *reduce* the overall spending limits therefore making elections cheaper to contest while allowing local independents more spending if they wish.

    Reinforce this with draconian penalties for overspending and have named party officials personally responsible, who can be barred from office by a judge for any egrarious breaches of spending limits.

    Problem with that is that it would allow paper candidates being put up with no funding or work on them at all allowing a few huge huge targeted seats.
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    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    If this is true, it shows that David Cameron was more concerned with stopping Farage than winning the General Election itself. I'm sure PB Tories will be delighted with that.

    Nonsense on stilts from you.

    Dave really wanted a majority above all else, and there was one seat Dave wanted to win more than any other seat and it wasn't Thanet South, it was Rochester and Strood.

    I don't know why, but the defection of Mark Reckless really wound up a lot of Tories, Tories who are normally very cool and rational but it brought out the bloodlust in us them to kick Mark Reckless' fat arse.
    How much did the Tories overspend by in Rochester then?
    I'm told they didn't.

    During the last general election campaign I was in contact with some people at CCHQ, they had pulled out of Rochester and Strood three weeks before polling day because they had it in the bag.
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    Mr. 43, there's also external pressure from an electorate that voted to Leave.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,018
    Thanks Mr E. Looks like a combination of carelessness and someone trying to get away with it!
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Sandpit said:

    I wonder if the solution to the spending limits isn't to have a combined spending limit of say £100k per candidate standing, so £6m over the election period - then leave it up to the parties to allocate this spending as they see fit, whether to phone banks, national campaigning, social media, battle buses, mail shots, door knockers etc.

    This would allow for marginal targeting and national campaigning, while getting rid of anomalies such as the PM visiting but not being allowed to say vote for the local candidate, or a bus full of students having to stay 20 miles away to avoid hotel bills in a particular constituency.

    If the EC can get the value right, they will even be able to *reduce* the overall spending limits therefore making elections cheaper to contest while allowing local independents more spending if they wish.

    Reinforce this with draconian penalties for overspending and have named party officials personally responsible, who can be barred from office by a judge for any egrarious breaches of spending limits.

    I think parties should have maximum spending limits every year.

    If for example they can only spend 10 million per year, and 15 million in an election year you have a level playing field and remove the need to get extra funding from every dodgy Tom, Dick and Harry. Cure both the cash raising and spending problems at once.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,191
    edited December 2016

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    If this is true, it shows that David Cameron was more concerned with stopping Farage than winning the General Election itself. I'm sure PB Tories will be delighted with that.

    Nonsense on stilts from you.

    Dave really wanted a majority above all else, and there was one seat Dave wanted to win more than any other seat and it wasn't Thanet South, it was Rochester and Strood.

    I don't know why, but the defection of Mark Reckless really wound up a lot of Tories, Tories who are normally very cool and rational but it brought out the bloodlust in us them to kick Mark Reckless' fat arse.
    How much did the Tories overspend by in Rochester then?
    I'm told they didn't.

    During the last general election campaign I was in contact with some people at CCHQ, they had pulled out of Rochester and Strood three weeks before polling day because they had it in the bag.
    So obviously they didn't think the same about South Thanet. Presumably they overspent in Tory-Labour marginals too? Or does my original point stand?
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    tlg86 said:

    The police investigation also covers inquiries into £36,000 in donations made to Mackintosh’s local Conservative association and people associated with him by Howard Grossman, whose company, 1st Land, was contracted to manage the Sixfields development.

    Despite the bulk of the money being paid to Grossman’s company, the firm building the new stand, Buckingham Group, stopped work in early 2015 having not been paid £1.9m they were owed, with 1st Land put into administration.


    That does not look good.
    It's been developing for some time. And no, it doesn't look good.
    It does look like it might develop into a proper, old-fashioned corruption scandal from the 20th Century. Insert reference to popcorn here.
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    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    edited December 2016
    @FF43 I agree but after last night's vote all hope is gone. We're now in a gargantuan socioeconomic experiment with no agreement on which of several hypotheses we're testing.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,519
    edited December 2016
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    If this is true, it shows that David Cameron was more concerned with stopping Farage than winning the General Election itself. I'm sure PB Tories will be delighted with that.

    Nonsense on stilts from you.

    Dave really wanted a majority above all else, and there was one seat Dave wanted to win more than any other seat and it wasn't Thanet South, it was Rochester and Strood.

    I don't know why, but the defection of Mark Reckless really wound up a lot of Tories, Tories who are normally very cool and rational but it brought out the bloodlust in us them to kick Mark Reckless' fat arse.
    How much did the Tories overspend by in Rochester then?
    I'm told they didn't.

    During the last general election campaign I was in contact with some people at CCHQ, they had pulled out of Rochester and Strood three weeks before polling day because they had it in the bag.
    So obviously they didn't think the same about South Thanet. Presumably they overspent in Tory-Labour marginal too? Or does my original point stand?
    Don't quote me, but I think the only reason the Tories threw so much at Thanet South was the belief UKIP was also throwing law breaking amounts at Thanet South. Which is why UKIP never made a complaint.

    As a defence it is pretty shite defence from the blues.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,857

    Mr. 43, there's also external pressure from an electorate that voted to Leave.

    Yes, although the point is the same - the march deadline we're now operating to and which the government is committed is arbitrary, I would hope we'd be ready to move forward by then but is conceivable we'd like more time, but we dare not delay further, meaning we'll move forward whether we're as ready as we'd like to be or not, we have little flexibility because reassuring people we'll leave is politically more important than getting fully prepared. We may well be fully prepared by march, but we're stuck even if we're not prepared.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,919
    edited December 2016

    Sandpit said:

    I wonder if the solution to the spending limits isn't to have a combined spending limit of say £100k per candidate standing, so £6m over the election period - then leave it up to the parties to allocate this spending as they see fit, whether to phone banks, national campaigning, social media, battle buses, mail shots, door knockers etc.

    This would allow for marginal targeting and national campaigning, while getting rid of anomalies such as the PM visiting but not being allowed to say vote for the local candidate, or a bus full of students having to stay 20 miles away to avoid hotel bills in a particular constituency.

    If the EC can get the value right, they will even be able to *reduce* the overall spending limits therefore making elections cheaper to contest while allowing local independents more spending if they wish.

    Reinforce this with draconian penalties for overspending and have named party officials personally responsible, who can be barred from office by a judge for any egrarious breaches of spending limits.

    Problem with that is that it would allow paper candidates being put up with no funding or work on them at all allowing a few huge huge targeted seats.
    That happens now anyway - The Tories lost 18 deposits in 2015, and the Greens over 400 while targeting Brighton, Bristol, Oxford and Cambridge.

    I'd also guess the Tory candidates in Witney, Maidenhead, NE Hampshire etc. did much local campaigning either.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/blog/2015/06/12/election-2015-lost-deposits
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610

    tlg86 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    :smiley:

    Christopher Snowden
    "You asked me once, Winston, what was in Room 101. The thing that is in Room 101 is the worst thing in the world." https://t.co/Qvr6jjs64E

    Blimey!
    Exactly. Typical BBC QT right-wing bias -- three Tories and only one Labour (and one from the Will "up him" Self party).
    Tell me Mensch isn't out on manoeuvres!!!
    To be cynical, it looks like a legitimate way of turning a holiday into a business trip.
    Could be an expensive business trip when/if she libels half a dozen people on live TV. Somebody should ask about the state of science journalism.
    Slanders.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    I wonder if the solution to the spending limits isn't to have a combined spending limit of say £100k per candidate standing, so £6m over the election period - then leave it up to the parties to allocate this spending as they see fit, whether to phone banks, national campaigning, social media, battle buses, mail shots, door knockers etc.

    This would allow for marginal targeting and national campaigning, while getting rid of anomalies such as the PM visiting but not being allowed to say vote for the local candidate, or a bus full of students having to stay 20 miles away to avoid hotel bills in a particular constituency.

    If the EC can get the value right, they will even be able to *reduce* the overall spending limits therefore making elections cheaper to contest while allowing local independents more spending if they wish.

    Reinforce this with draconian penalties for overspending and have named party officials personally responsible, who can be barred from office by a judge for any egrarious breaches of spending limits.

    Problem with that is that it would allow paper candidates being put up with no funding or work on them at all allowing a few huge huge targeted seats.
    That happens now anyway - The Tories lost 18 deposits in 2015, and the Greens over 400 while targeting Brighton, Bristol, Oxford and Cambridge.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/blog/2015/06/12/election-2015-lost-deposits
    My opinion would be you should be able to spend what you want where you want, just have limits (and harsh penalties) on the types of spending.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Leave EU
    WATCH: The onslaught continues as Jacob Rees-Mogg accuses Remoaners of "rejecting our employers, bosses, liege lords - the British people." https://t.co/vL9A2Kv5RD

    Great speech from Moggster
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,191

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    If this is true, it shows that David Cameron was more concerned with stopping Farage than winning the General Election itself. I'm sure PB Tories will be delighted with that.

    Nonsense on stilts from you.

    Dave really wanted a majority above all else, and there was one seat Dave wanted to win more than any other seat and it wasn't Thanet South, it was Rochester and Strood.

    I don't know why, but the defection of Mark Reckless really wound up a lot of Tories, Tories who are normally very cool and rational but it brought out the bloodlust in us them to kick Mark Reckless' fat arse.
    How much did the Tories overspend by in Rochester then?
    I'm told they didn't.

    During the last general election campaign I was in contact with some people at CCHQ, they had pulled out of Rochester and Strood three weeks before polling day because they had it in the bag.
    So obviously they didn't think the same about South Thanet. Presumably they overspent in Tory-Labour marginal too? Or does my original point stand?
    Don't quote me, but I think the only reason the Tories threw so much at Thanet South was the belief UKIP was also throwing law breaking amounts at Thanet South. Which is why UKIP never made a complaint.

    As a defence it is pretty shite defence from the blues.
    If Ukip broke the law they should be done too.
  • Options

    Thanks Mr E. Looks like a combination of carelessness and someone trying to get away with it!
    Yep. I don't think there is any suggestion there was actually overspend. Just very sloppy reporting. It really is a different kettle of fish to some of the other seats where it looks like there was a specific intent to spend more than allowed.
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    tlg86 said:

    The police investigation also covers inquiries into £36,000 in donations made to Mackintosh’s local Conservative association and people associated with him by Howard Grossman, whose company, 1st Land, was contracted to manage the Sixfields development.

    Despite the bulk of the money being paid to Grossman’s company, the firm building the new stand, Buckingham Group, stopped work in early 2015 having not been paid £1.9m they were owed, with 1st Land put into administration.


    That does not look good.
    It's been developing for some time. And no, it doesn't look good.
    It does look like it might develop into a proper, old-fashioned corruption scandal from the 20th Century. Insert reference to popcorn here.
    Talking of scandals, it seems like decades since we've had one about the masons.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,025
    Although it was a fairly technical breach, wasn't it? The local constituency reported a national spend, that was not included on the national declaration. The LDs were nowhere near the maximum national spend, so this seems more of an (expensive) administrative error than an attempt to break the law.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    I wonder if the solution to the spending limits isn't to have a combined spending limit of say £100k per candidate standing, so £6m over the election period - then leave it up to the parties to allocate this spending as they see fit, whether to phone banks, national campaigning, social media, battle buses, mail shots, door knockers etc.

    This would allow for marginal targeting and national campaigning, while getting rid of anomalies such as the PM visiting but not being allowed to say vote for the local candidate, or a bus full of students having to stay 20 miles away to avoid hotel bills in a particular constituency.

    If the EC can get the value right, they will even be able to *reduce* the overall spending limits therefore making elections cheaper to contest while allowing local independents more spending if they wish.

    Reinforce this with draconian penalties for overspending and have named party officials personally responsible, who can be barred from office by a judge for any egrarious breaches of spending limits.

    Problem with that is that it would allow paper candidates being put up with no funding or work on them at all allowing a few huge huge targeted seats.
    That happens now anyway - The Tories lost 18 deposits in 2015, and the Greens over 400 while targeting Brighton, Bristol, Oxford and Cambridge.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/blog/2015/06/12/election-2015-lost-deposits
    Yes but your scheme would make it dramatically worse as all spending limits would be transferable. The Greens and UKIP could potentially field 600 candidates each then choose to Spend £6m each in Brighton Pavilion and Clacton respectively. Or the the Arron Banks Party could field 600 candidates then spend £6m in Broxtowe. And so on and so on.
  • Options
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    If this is true, it shows that David Cameron was more concerned with stopping Farage than winning the General Election itself. I'm sure PB Tories will be delighted with that.

    Nonsense on stilts from you.

    Dave really wanted a majority above all else, and there was one seat Dave wanted to win more than any other seat and it wasn't Thanet South, it was Rochester and Strood.

    I don't know why, but the defection of Mark Reckless really wound up a lot of Tories, Tories who are normally very cool and rational but it brought out the bloodlust in us them to kick Mark Reckless' fat arse.
    How much did the Tories overspend by in Rochester then?
    I'm told they didn't.

    During the last general election campaign I was in contact with some people at CCHQ, they had pulled out of Rochester and Strood three weeks before polling day because they had it in the bag.
    So obviously they didn't think the same about South Thanet. Presumably they overspent in Tory-Labour marginal too? Or does my original point stand?
    Don't quote me, but I think the only reason the Tories threw so much at Thanet South was the belief UKIP was also throwing law breaking amounts at Thanet South. Which is why UKIP never made a complaint.

    As a defence it is pretty shite defence from the blues.
    If Ukip broke the law they should be done too.
    Oh bad form. TSE asked you not to quote him and you did!

    :-)


  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    IanB2 said:

    Only the boundary commission could put the northern extremity of Thanet into Thanet South.

    The northernmost point of Ireland is not in Northern Ireland.
    It's not called Northest Ireland.
  • Options
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    If this is true, it shows that David Cameron was more concerned with stopping Farage than winning the General Election itself. I'm sure PB Tories will be delighted with that.

    Nonsense on stilts from you.

    Dave really wanted a majority above all else, and there was one seat Dave wanted to win more than any other seat and it wasn't Thanet South, it was Rochester and Strood.

    I don't know why, but the defection of Mark Reckless really wound up a lot of Tories, Tories who are normally very cool and rational but it brought out the bloodlust in us them to kick Mark Reckless' fat arse.
    How much did the Tories overspend by in Rochester then?
    I'm told they didn't.

    During the last general election campaign I was in contact with some people at CCHQ, they had pulled out of Rochester and Strood three weeks before polling day because they had it in the bag.
    So obviously they didn't think the same about South Thanet. Presumably they overspent in Tory-Labour marginal too? Or does my original point stand?
    Don't quote me, but I think the only reason the Tories threw so much at Thanet South was the belief UKIP was also throwing law breaking amounts at Thanet South. Which is why UKIP never made a complaint.

    As a defence it is pretty shite defence from the blues.
    If Ukip broke the law they should be done too.
    Yup. I believe they won't be because of the one year limit to raise a complaint.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    :smiley:

    Christopher Snowden
    "You asked me once, Winston, what was in Room 101. The thing that is in Room 101 is the worst thing in the world." https://t.co/Qvr6jjs64E

    Blimey!
    Exactly. Typical BBC QT right-wing bias -- three Tories and only one Labour (and one from the Will "up him" Self party).
    Tell me Mensch isn't out on manoeuvres!!!
    To be cynical, it looks like a legitimate way of turning a holiday into a business trip.
    Could be an expensive business trip when/if she libels half a dozen people on live TV. Somebody should ask about the state of science journalism.
    Slanders.
    Libel because it is broadcast which counts as publication, iirc. I suppose all the pb lawyers are off watching the cricket.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,191

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    If this is true, it shows that David Cameron was more concerned with stopping Farage than winning the General Election itself. I'm sure PB Tories will be delighted with that.

    Nonsense on stilts from you.

    Dave really wanted a majority above all else, and there was one seat Dave wanted to win more than any other seat and it wasn't Thanet South, it was Rochester and Strood.

    I don't know why, but the defection of Mark Reckless really wound up a lot of Tories, Tories who are normally very cool and rational but it brought out the bloodlust in us them to kick Mark Reckless' fat arse.
    How much did the Tories overspend by in Rochester then?
    I'm told they didn't.

    During the last general election campaign I was in contact with some people at CCHQ, they had pulled out of Rochester and Strood three weeks before polling day because they had it in the bag.
    So obviously they didn't think the same about South Thanet. Presumably they overspent in Tory-Labour marginal too? Or does my original point stand?
    Don't quote me, but I think the only reason the Tories threw so much at Thanet South was the belief UKIP was also throwing law breaking amounts at Thanet South. Which is why UKIP never made a complaint.

    As a defence it is pretty shite defence from the blues.
    If Ukip broke the law they should be done too.
    Oh bad form. TSE asked you not to quote him and you did!

    :-)

    I couldn't resist!
  • Options
    Intersecting.

    Ministers are considering doing a deal with Nicola Sturgeon that would give her the power to hold a second independence referendum — but only after Brexit.

    The move has prompted accusations that the Conservatives are “dreaming up ways to thwart a bid for Scottish independence”.

    The Scottish government needs to strike an agreement with London, as it did in 2014, to put the question to voters again. Theresa May’s government is looking at making the timing of any second vote a “red line”.

    UK ministers would argue that the Brexit deal has to be secured first so that Scots know what they are deciding on in an independence referendum. They will need to know what voting to stay in the UK means in terms of deals with Europe. However, it puts Ms Sturgeon in the unwelcome position of having to fight for independence after the UK has left the EU and therefore potentially without being able to play the card of continuing membership for Scotland.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scotland-deal-would-offer-vote-on-independence-after-brexit-vfbkvg5z3
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    Only the boundary commission could put the northern extremity of Thanet into Thanet South.

    The northernmost point of Ireland is not in Northern Ireland.
    It's not called Northest Ireland.
    I was going to post that earlier, but realised that northest isn't a word. :D
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    Only the boundary commission could put the northern extremity of Thanet into Thanet South.

    The northernmost point of Ireland is not in Northern Ireland.
    It's not called Northest Ireland.
    I was going to post that earlier, but realised that northest isn't a word. :D
    Northernest is though
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610

    Intersecting.

    Ministers are considering doing a deal with Nicola Sturgeon that would give her the power to hold a second independence referendum — but only after Brexit.

    The move has prompted accusations that the Conservatives are “dreaming up ways to thwart a bid for Scottish independence”.

    The Scottish government needs to strike an agreement with London, as it did in 2014, to put the question to voters again. Theresa May’s government is looking at making the timing of any second vote a “red line”.

    UK ministers would argue that the Brexit deal has to be secured first so that Scots know what they are deciding on in an independence referendum. They will need to know what voting to stay in the UK means in terms of deals with Europe. However, it puts Ms Sturgeon in the unwelcome position of having to fight for independence after the UK has left the EU and therefore potentially without being able to play the card of continuing membership for Scotland.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scotland-deal-would-offer-vote-on-independence-after-brexit-vfbkvg5z3

    The second paragraph seems redundant. Of course the Tories are coming up with ways to stop Scottish independence.

    I note that Kezia proposed repealing the Acts of Union, SCon up another 5 points I think.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,919
    edited December 2016

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    I wonder if the solution to the spending limits isn't to have a combined spending limit of say £100k per candidate standing, so £6m over the election period - then leave it up to the parties to allocate this spending as they see fit, whether to phone banks, national campaigning, social media, battle buses, mail shots, door knockers etc.

    This would allow for marginal targeting and national campaigning, while getting rid of anomalies such as the PM visiting but not being allowed to say vote for the local candidate, or a bus full of students having to stay 20 miles away to avoid hotel bills in a particular constituency.

    If the EC can get the value right, they will even be able to *reduce* the overall spending limits therefore making elections cheaper to contest while allowing local independents more spending if they wish.

    Reinforce this with draconian penalties for overspending and have named party officials personally responsible, who can be barred from office by a judge for any egrarious breaches of spending limits.

    Problem with that is that it would allow paper candidates being put up with no funding or work on them at all allowing a few huge huge targeted seats.
    That happens now anyway - The Tories lost 18 deposits in 2015, and the Greens over 400 while targeting Brighton, Bristol, Oxford and Cambridge.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/blog/2015/06/12/election-2015-lost-deposits
    Yes but your scheme would make it dramatically worse as all spending limits would be transferable. The Greens and UKIP could potentially field 600 candidates each then choose to Spend £6m each in Brighton Pavilion and Clacton respectively. Or the the Arron Banks Party could field 600 candidates then spend £6m in Broxtowe. And so on and so on.
    Possibly, but it's got to be better than all the current complexities which have seeming got everyone in trouble. It's really not possible to spend £6m in only a handful of constituencies at a GE. I also quite like the idea of allowing well funded local independent candidates.

    Out of interest, do we know what did the LDs spent in Richmond last week? I can't imagine it's possible to spend much more than that in one place in a local campaign, if the reports of dozens of leaflets and hundreds of activists are to be believed.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    Only the boundary commission could put the northern extremity of Thanet into Thanet South.

    The northernmost point of Ireland is not in Northern Ireland.
    It's not called Northest Ireland.
    I was going to post that earlier, but realised that northest isn't a word. :D
    Someone here used 'distanciate' the other day - in the context of putting ideological space between someone else. :mask:
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    Only the boundary commission could put the northern extremity of Thanet into Thanet South.

    The northernmost point of Ireland is not in Northern Ireland.
    It's not called Northest Ireland.
    I was going to post that earlier, but realised that northest isn't a word. :D
    Northernest is though
    Surely northernmost?
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    Only the boundary commission could put the northern extremity of Thanet into Thanet South.

    The northernmost point of Ireland is not in Northern Ireland.
    It's not called Northest Ireland.
    I was going to post that earlier, but realised that northest isn't a word. :D
    Northernest is though
    As is northerly
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,651

    IanB2 said:

    Only the boundary commission could put the northern extremity of Thanet into Thanet South.

    The tube line that runs furthest south? The Northern Line
    The most rural tube line? The Metropolitan Line.
    The line that runs furthest from the centre? The Central Line.....

    It's a national hobby coming up with misleading descriptors......
    Northern Powerhouse.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,936
    Oh Jesus what a QT audience.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    All 3 "major" parties appear to have acted improperly. (well, 2 and the lib dems).

    A pox on all their houses



  • Options
    Mr. Max, not only that, but the timing point is and always was a rather obvious weak spot for Sturgeon.

    Miss Plato, some years ago, someone online I knew used the term 'agreeance'.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,129

    @FF43 I agree but after last night's vote all hope is gone. We're now in a gargantuan socioeconomic experiment with no agreement on which of several hypotheses we're testing.

    So if all hope is gone, will the Remoaners now shut up?

    Odds on that?
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    YouGov
    Two thirds of people support introducing an "oath of integration" for immigrants wanting to settle in the UK https://t.co/Re7PHLnCrJ https://t.co/h4ddFvFpfC
  • Options
    On topic if charges are brought unfortunately for Mrs May she cannot blame the excess of the ancien régime, as her chief of staff has been implicated in the alleged shenanigans in Thanet South
  • Options
    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,977

    Intersecting.

    Ministers are considering doing a deal with Nicola Sturgeon that would give her the power to hold a second independence referendum — but only after Brexit.

    The move has prompted accusations that the Conservatives are “dreaming up ways to thwart a bid for Scottish independence”.

    The Scottish government needs to strike an agreement with London, as it did in 2014, to put the question to voters again. Theresa May’s government is looking at making the timing of any second vote a “red line”.

    UK ministers would argue that the Brexit deal has to be secured first so that Scots know what they are deciding on in an independence referendum. They will need to know what voting to stay in the UK means in terms of deals with Europe. However, it puts Ms Sturgeon in the unwelcome position of having to fight for independence after the UK has left the EU and therefore potentially without being able to play the card of continuing membership for Scotland.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scotland-deal-would-offer-vote-on-independence-after-brexit-vfbkvg5z3

    Essentially it looks like scotland leaves the EU the moment the UK does. Try selling re application for membership with all the added extras (euro etc).
  • Options
    @TheScreamingEagles It's a hell of a hand grenade to throw into the Brexit negotiations. Even if delayed and subsequently not used granting a Section 30 Order would trigger a long #indyref2 campaign in all but name. And Cui Bono ? Arguably the Tories in Scotland in that their USP would have greater salience. Arguably Soft Brexiters because they'd have Secession to scare the children with. Arguably the EU negotiating team as a real crap deal could tip the UK into break up. Who knows ? Currency speculators certainly.
  • Options

    Intersecting.

    Ministers are considering doing a deal with Nicola Sturgeon that would give her the power to hold a second independence referendum — but only after Brexit.

    The move has prompted accusations that the Conservatives are “dreaming up ways to thwart a bid for Scottish independence”.

    The Scottish government needs to strike an agreement with London, as it did in 2014, to put the question to voters again. Theresa May’s government is looking at making the timing of any second vote a “red line”.

    UK ministers would argue that the Brexit deal has to be secured first so that Scots know what they are deciding on in an independence referendum. They will need to know what voting to stay in the UK means in terms of deals with Europe. However, it puts Ms Sturgeon in the unwelcome position of having to fight for independence after the UK has left the EU and therefore potentially without being able to play the card of continuing membership for Scotland.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scotland-deal-would-offer-vote-on-independence-after-brexit-vfbkvg5z3

    Essentially it looks like scotland leaves the EU the moment the UK does. Try selling re application for membership with all the added extras (euro etc).
    Tessy and her minions should be careful that they don't give a running commentary on matters Scottish.
  • Options
    FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Some clever tactics going on here. Fine the others then go for the government. The question that occurs to me though is how legitimate are decisions made by Parliament since the German if they were made thanks to MPs who were not legitimately elected?

    Another one for the Supreme Court?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,025
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    I wonder if the solution to the spending limits isn't to have a combined spending limit of say £100k per candidate standing, so £6m over the election period - then leave it up to the parties to allocate this spending as they see fit, whether to phone banks, national campaigning, social media, battle buses, mail shots, door knockers etc.

    This would allow for marginal targeting and national campaigning, while getting rid of anomalies such as the PM visiting but not being allowed to say vote for the local candidate, or a bus full of students having to stay 20 miles away to avoid hotel bills in a particular constituency.

    If the EC can get the value right, they will even be able to *reduce* the overall spending limits therefore making elections cheaper to contest while allowing local independents more spending if they wish.

    Reinforce this with draconian penalties for overspending and have named party officials personally responsible, who can be barred from office by a judge for any egrarious breaches of spending limits.

    Problem with that is that it would allow paper candidates being put up with no funding or work on them at all allowing a few huge huge targeted seats.
    That happens now anyway - The Tories lost 18 deposits in 2015, and the Greens over 400 while targeting Brighton, Bristol, Oxford and Cambridge.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/blog/2015/06/12/election-2015-lost-deposits
    Yes but your scheme would make it dramatically worse as all spending limits would be transferable. The Greens and UKIP could potentially field 600 candidates each then choose to Spend £6m each in Brighton Pavilion and Clacton respectively. Or the the Arron Banks Party could field 600 candidates then spend £6m in Broxtowe. And so on and so on.
    Possibly, but it's got to be better than all the current complexities which have seeming got everyone in trouble. It's really not possible to spend £6m in only a handful of constituencies at a GE. I also quite like the idea of allowing well funded local independent candidates.

    Out of interest, do we know what did the LDs spent in Richmond last week? I can't imagine it's possible to spend much more than that in one place in a local campaign, if the reports of dozens of leaflets and hundreds of activists are to be believed.
    Activists are effectively free, especially in London. It's not like there's a bus being laid on to take them to Richmond. There'll have turned up, and the cost of their shoe leather* will be born personally.

    * Yes, I realise that LibDems probably have some godawful synthetic soles on their shoes
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    I wonder if the solution to the spending limits isn't to have a combined spending limit of say £100k per candidate standing, so £6m over the election period - then leave it up to the parties to allocate this spending as they see fit, whether to phone banks, national campaigning, social media, battle buses, mail shots, door knockers etc.

    This would allow for marginal targeting and national campaigning, while getting rid of anomalies such as the PM visiting but not being allowed to say vote for the local candidate, or a bus full of students having to stay 20 miles away to avoid hotel bills in a particular constituency.

    If the EC can get the value right, they will even be able to *reduce* the overall spending limits therefore making elections cheaper to contest while allowing local independents more spending if they wish.

    Reinforce this with draconian penalties for overspending and have named party officials personally responsible, who can be barred from office by a judge for any egrarious breaches of spending limits.

    Problem with that is that it would allow paper candidates being put up with no funding or work on them at all allowing a few huge huge targeted seats.
    That happens now anyway - The Tories lost 18 deposits in 2015, and the Greens over 400 while targeting Brighton, Bristol, Oxford and Cambridge.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/blog/2015/06/12/election-2015-lost-deposits
    Yes but your scheme would make it dramatically worse as all spending limits would be transferable. The Greens and UKIP could potentially field 600 candidates each then choose to Spend £6m each in Brighton Pavilion and Clacton respectively. Or the the Arron Banks Party could field 600 candidates then spend £6m in Broxtowe. And so on and so on.
    Possibly, but it's got to be better than all the current complexities which have seeming got everyone in trouble. It's really not possible to spend £6m in only a handful of constituencies at a GE. I also quite like the idea of allowing well funded local independent candidates.

    Out of interest, do we know what did the LDs spent in Richmond last week? I can't imagine it's possible to spend much more than that in one place in a local campaign, if the reports of dozens of leaflets and hundreds of activists are to be believed.
    Activists are effectively free, especially in London. It's not like there's a bus being laid on to take them to Richmond. There'll have turned up, and the cost of their shoe leather* will be born personally.

    * Yes, I realise that LibDems probably have some godawful synthetic soles on their shoes
    Shoes?
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,651

    Intersecting.

    Ministers are considering doing a deal with Nicola Sturgeon that would give her the power to hold a second independence referendum — but only after Brexit.

    The move has prompted accusations that the Conservatives are “dreaming up ways to thwart a bid for Scottish independence”.

    The Scottish government needs to strike an agreement with London, as it did in 2014, to put the question to voters again. Theresa May’s government is looking at making the timing of any second vote a “red line”.

    UK ministers would argue that the Brexit deal has to be secured first so that Scots know what they are deciding on in an independence referendum. They will need to know what voting to stay in the UK means in terms of deals with Europe. However, it puts Ms Sturgeon in the unwelcome position of having to fight for independence after the UK has left the EU and therefore potentially without being able to play the card of continuing membership for Scotland.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scotland-deal-would-offer-vote-on-independence-after-brexit-vfbkvg5z3

    Essentially it looks like scotland leaves the EU the moment the UK does. Try selling re application for membership with all the added extras (euro etc).
    It would provide clarity in the debate - Euro, Schengen, border posts on the one side, remain part of a liberated UK on the other.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited December 2016
    Douglas Murray has his 2p

    "There is a new buzz-word at the BBC. It's been bandied about on countless programmes and dominates the pages of the Left-wing papers. The 17 million-plus Britons who voted to leave the EU are described as part of a 'populist' revolution.

    When the American public voted for Donald Trump to be their next President, the BBC and other media likewise described it as a triumph of populism.

    ...But, make no mistake, it is now being used as a sneering, pejorative term to describe the extraordinary social phenomenon sweeping both Europe and the U.S. as millions and millions of people express their anger at the ballot box over the indolence, corruption and complacency of their nation's political elite.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-4011874/POPULISM-s-BBC-s-new-buzzword-used-sneer-uneducated-17-million-voted-Brexit.html
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,751
    edited December 2016

    Intersecting.

    Ministers are considering doing a deal with Nicola Sturgeon that would give her the power to hold a second independence referendum — but only after Brexit.

    The move has prompted accusations that the Conservatives are “dreaming up ways to thwart a bid for Scottish independence”.

    The Scottish government needs to strike an agreement with London, as it did in 2014, to put the question to voters again. Theresa May’s government is looking at making the timing of any second vote a “red line”.

    UK ministers would argue that the Brexit deal has to be secured first so that Scots know what they are deciding on in an independence referendum. They will need to know what voting to stay in the UK means in terms of deals with Europe. However, it puts Ms Sturgeon in the unwelcome position of having to fight for independence after the UK has left the EU and therefore potentially without being able to play the card of continuing membership for Scotland.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scotland-deal-would-offer-vote-on-independence-after-brexit-vfbkvg5z3

    It's part of the deal to get the Scottish government on board with Brexit. There will be cash bungs as well. Brexit will see a huge increase in patronage with money also going to northern Ireland, big businesses and foreign governments.

    The other point is that the Conservative and Unionist Party is more concerned with cobbling something together for Brexit than preserving the Union right now.
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    England about to collapse like Carthage at Zama.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,936
    I have an app called Cricviz - It reckons the test match is finely poised,

    Eng 47.1%
    Ind 46.8%.
    Draw 6.1%

    The implication is of course - lay the draw at 4.1 on Betfair.
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    FF43 said:

    Intersecting.

    Ministers are considering doing a deal with Nicola Sturgeon that would give her the power to hold a second independence referendum — but only after Brexit.

    The move has prompted accusations that the Conservatives are “dreaming up ways to thwart a bid for Scottish independence”.

    The Scottish government needs to strike an agreement with London, as it did in 2014, to put the question to voters again. Theresa May’s government is looking at making the timing of any second vote a “red line”.

    UK ministers would argue that the Brexit deal has to be secured first so that Scots know what they are deciding on in an independence referendum. They will need to know what voting to stay in the UK means in terms of deals with Europe. However, it puts Ms Sturgeon in the unwelcome position of having to fight for independence after the UK has left the EU and therefore potentially without being able to play the card of continuing membership for Scotland.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scotland-deal-would-offer-vote-on-independence-after-brexit-vfbkvg5z3

    It's part of the deal to get the Scottish government on board with Brexit. There will be cash bungs as well. Brexit will see a huge increase in patronage with money also going to northern Ireland, big businesses and foreign governments.

    The other point is that the Conservative and Unionist Party is more concerned with cobbling something together for Brexit than preserving the Union right now.
    Dave was right again.

    To paraphrase Emperor Kahless The Unforgettable, 'Destroying a Union to leave another Union is no victory'
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    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    edited December 2016
    I think election campaigns cause more problems than they solve. Just allow parties one mailshot a fortnight before voting day with a fifty page manifesto and let the voters make up their own minds.

    Well, at least it would have saved us the Prescott Punch and the Edstone ...
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,191

    FF43 said:

    Intersecting.

    Ministers are considering doing a deal with Nicola Sturgeon that would give her the power to hold a second independence referendum — but only after Brexit.

    The move has prompted accusations that the Conservatives are “dreaming up ways to thwart a bid for Scottish independence”.

    The Scottish government needs to strike an agreement with London, as it did in 2014, to put the question to voters again. Theresa May’s government is looking at making the timing of any second vote a “red line”.

    UK ministers would argue that the Brexit deal has to be secured first so that Scots know what they are deciding on in an independence referendum. They will need to know what voting to stay in the UK means in terms of deals with Europe. However, it puts Ms Sturgeon in the unwelcome position of having to fight for independence after the UK has left the EU and therefore potentially without being able to play the card of continuing membership for Scotland.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scotland-deal-would-offer-vote-on-independence-after-brexit-vfbkvg5z3

    It's part of the deal to get the Scottish government on board with Brexit. There will be cash bungs as well. Brexit will see a huge increase in patronage with money also going to northern Ireland, big businesses and foreign governments.

    The other point is that the Conservative and Unionist Party is more concerned with cobbling something together for Brexit than preserving the Union right now.
    Dave was right again.

    To paraphrase Emperor Kahless The Unforgettable, 'Destroying a Union to leave another Union is no victory'
    Ukip's future is England and I think Paul Nuttall gets this.
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    FF43 said:

    Intersecting.

    Ministers are considering doing a deal with Nicola Sturgeon that would give her the power to hold a second independence referendum — but only after Brexit.

    The move has prompted accusations that the Conservatives are “dreaming up ways to thwart a bid for Scottish independence”.

    The Scottish government needs to strike an agreement with London, as it did in 2014, to put the question to voters again. Theresa May’s government is looking at making the timing of any second vote a “red line”.

    UK ministers would argue that the Brexit deal has to be secured first so that Scots know what they are deciding on in an independence referendum. They will need to know what voting to stay in the UK means in terms of deals with Europe. However, it puts Ms Sturgeon in the unwelcome position of having to fight for independence after the UK has left the EU and therefore potentially without being able to play the card of continuing membership for Scotland.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scotland-deal-would-offer-vote-on-independence-after-brexit-vfbkvg5z3

    It's part of the deal to get the Scottish government on board with Brexit. There will be cash bungs as well. Brexit will see a huge increase in patronage with money also going to northern Ireland, big businesses and foreign governments.

    The other point is that the Conservative and Unionist Party is more concerned with cobbling something together for Brexit than preserving the Union right now.
    Dave was right again.

    To paraphrase Emperor Kahless The Unforgettable, 'Destroying a Union to leave another Union is no victory'
    Unless you're not that bothered about either union. Since we seem incapable of coming up with real solutions to the West Lothian Question it seems appropriate.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,873
    Morning all :)

    When I was an Agent some 30 years ago, it seemed like a legal minefield but compared with today it's simple. How do you (or indeed can you) differentiate between "local" and "national" expenditure in an age of social media ?

    All the cases brought against all the parties show the current system of electoral expenses and funding to be wholly unfit for purpose and in dire need of some radical re-thinking.

    I start with there being two credible positions - one is to have no expense limit at all, if the parties have the money, let them spend it where and how they like (it's their money after all). If a party wants to spend 1p in one constituency and £1 million in another what's wrong with that ?

    The other credible position is to have no spending at all - parties have to campaign on an entirely voluntary basis. People and firms have to voluntarily give up time and money to work for a party. If a candidate can get a hundred volunteers and companies willing to give up their time to print leaflets or run phone banks or run social media campaigns, no problem.

    I rather like the latter as an idea - the former allows for enough money to be spent to buy an election though as recent events have shown, spending a lot of money is no guarantee of success.

    The current system invites abuse and no party is immune from that.
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    Intersecting.

    Ministers are considering doing a deal with Nicola Sturgeon that would give her the power to hold a second independence referendum — but only after Brexit.

    The move has prompted accusations that the Conservatives are “dreaming up ways to thwart a bid for Scottish independence”.

    The Scottish government needs to strike an agreement with London, as it did in 2014, to put the question to voters again. Theresa May’s government is looking at making the timing of any second vote a “red line”.

    UK ministers would argue that the Brexit deal has to be secured first so that Scots know what they are deciding on in an independence referendum. They will need to know what voting to stay in the UK means in terms of deals with Europe. However, it puts Ms Sturgeon in the unwelcome position of having to fight for independence after the UK has left the EU and therefore potentially without being able to play the card of continuing membership for Scotland.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scotland-deal-would-offer-vote-on-independence-after-brexit-vfbkvg5z3

    Essentially it looks like scotland leaves the EU the moment the UK does. Try selling re application for membership with all the added extras (euro etc).
    It would provide clarity in the debate - Euro, Schengen, border posts on the one side, remain part of a liberated UK on the other.
    No need to join Schengen. The treaties as they stand would already allow for membership of the Common Travel Area with Ireland and the UK instead. The Euro on the other hand would be needed but it would in a way deal with the currency issue that flawed them last time.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,751

    FF43 said:

    Intersecting.

    Ministers are considering doing a deal with Nicola Sturgeon that would give her the power to hold a second independence referendum — but only after Brexit.

    The move has prompted accusations that the Conservatives are “dreaming up ways to thwart a bid for Scottish independence”.

    The Scottish government needs to strike an agreement with London, as it did in 2014, to put the question to voters again. Theresa May’s government is looking at making the timing of any second vote a “red line”.

    UK ministers would argue that the Brexit deal has to be secured first so that Scots know what they are deciding on in an independence referendum. They will need to know what voting to stay in the UK means in terms of deals with Europe. However, it puts Ms Sturgeon in the unwelcome position of having to fight for independence after the UK has left the EU and therefore potentially without being able to play the card of continuing membership for Scotland.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scotland-deal-would-offer-vote-on-independence-after-brexit-vfbkvg5z3

    It's part of the deal to get the Scottish government on board with Brexit. There will be cash bungs as well. Brexit will see a huge increase in patronage with money also going to northern Ireland, big businesses and foreign governments.

    The other point is that the Conservative and Unionist Party is more concerned with cobbling something together for Brexit than preserving the Union right now.
    Dave was right again.

    To paraphrase Emperor Kahless The Unforgettable, 'Destroying a Union to leave another Union is no victory'
    Unless you're not that bothered about either union. Since we seem incapable of coming up with real solutions to the West Lothian Question it seems appropriate.
    Agreed. I regret the potential passing of both unions. I think working together is good and that the whole can be worth more than the sum of the parts. But it takes effort. It's easier to think small.
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    MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    all this local v national spending for General Elections could be made easier if the rules were that any pieces of paper or paid-for phone calls or buses that appear in a constituency count as local expenditure but social media adverts and billboards/posters are national expenditure unless they mention the name of the candidate or the constituency.
    On the Labour and Lib Dem fines, neither appear to have been done on purpose, more like not rigorous or robust enough processes to catch absolutely everything properly. And as someone posted below, what was missed did not add up to enough to put either party over any limits. The Conservative stuff on the bus may also not have been done on purpose. However the problem with what happened in Thanet South is that it would have put them over the local spending limit by miles and may have been deliberately concealed - and all the shenanigans about trying to stop the investigation only serve to make it look worse.
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    FF43 said:

    Intersecting.

    Ministers are considering doing a deal with Nicola Sturgeon that would give her the power to hold a second independence referendum — but only after Brexit.

    The move has prompted accusations that the Conservatives are “dreaming up ways to thwart a bid for Scottish independence”.

    The Scottish government needs to strike an agreement with London, as it did in 2014, to put the question to voters again. Theresa May’s government is looking at making the timing of any second vote a “red line”.

    UK ministers would argue that the Brexit deal has to be secured first so that Scots know what they are deciding on in an independence referendum. They will need to know what voting to stay in the UK means in terms of deals with Europe. However, it puts Ms Sturgeon in the unwelcome position of having to fight for independence after the UK has left the EU and therefore potentially without being able to play the card of continuing membership for Scotland.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scotland-deal-would-offer-vote-on-independence-after-brexit-vfbkvg5z3

    It's part of the deal to get the Scottish government on board with Brexit. There will be cash bungs as well. Brexit will see a huge increase in patronage with money also going to northern Ireland, big businesses and foreign governments.

    The other point is that the Conservative and Unionist Party is more concerned with cobbling something together for Brexit than preserving the Union right now.
    Dave was right again.

    To paraphrase Emperor Kahless The Unforgettable, 'Destroying a Union to leave another Union is no victory'
    Unless you're not that bothered about either union. Since we seem incapable of coming up with real solutions to the West Lothian Question it seems appropriate.
    All good Tories should be bothered about the Union, our party name kinda gives you an idea.

    The Conservative and Unionist Party of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
This discussion has been closed.