politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Taking stock of 2016. What do you think were the biggest events of this extraordinary political year?
Ahead of this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast the team have come up with a short survey so that readers of PB can give their thoughts on the biggest winners, losers, shocks and moments from the past year.
Unsung hero is a difficult survey question (unsung hero in the sense of someone less recognised but with a big impact, not necessarily one I'd like).
Farage, he had an impact on both Brexit and Trump.
I would have, but he gets plenty of credit. I went with Gove. Yes, a Cabinet minister, but not hugely prominent, but his twists and turns had some big impacts.
Farage, he had an impact on both Brexit and Trump.
Hardly unsung. He's never off the f*cking TV
Between the big political beasts on both sides of the Atlantic, Farage is not even an MP and yet you can find his fingerprints all over on both Brexit and Trump.
He is the physical link between the two most important events of the year, and I have to give him credit for that.
I answered the same way. Brexit is clearly the biggest event in Britain. Trump more generally. What about in Europe though ? Is brexit significant to a German or Dutchman ? Or not so much ?
I was very tempted and initially wrote that. A very cogent chap and I very much hope he and his partner have a better 2017 than 2016.
But AndyJS is always a pleasure to see posting, and for the work he puts into his super-informative spreadsheets - which made a lot of money for people in 2016 - I think this year I had to plump for him in the end.
"Christianity holds true belief in one God, the Holy Trinity of Father, Son and Holy Spirit. The most rudimentary baseball fan knows that one frame of each inning is divided into three outs. Each at bat is further divided with three strikes. Three strikes and you’re out in baseball. "
And this is just from the first page of google, so you get the idea about his personal opinions.
Unsung hero is a difficult survey question (unsung hero in the sense of someone less recognised but with a big impact, not necessarily one I'd like).
Angela Eagle. Not for what she achieved, but that she had the cuillons to attempt it. And by her actions, proved something - that what she and others wanted wasn't attainable.
Unsung hero is a difficult survey question (unsung hero in the sense of someone less recognised but with a big impact, not necessarily one I'd like).
Also depends what your definition of "unsung" is. I opted for Gisela Stuart, to whom as a Brexiteer I owe considerable gratitude for helping deliver a very tight vote. But is she really "unsung"?
Specifically the huge grin on Ruth's face when she won Edinburgh Central. Not the most important thing of the year but the one that gave me the most cheer.
Unsung hero is a difficult survey question (unsung hero in the sense of someone less recognised but with a big impact, not necessarily one I'd like).
Also depends what your definition of "unsung" is. I opted for Gisela Stuart, to whom as a Brexiteer I owe considerable gratitude for helping deliver a very tight vote. But is she really "unsung"?
Well, I had trouble recalling her name (though I remember her now as being quite good), so I think she qualifies.
POTY, I went with Cyclefree. Concise, thoughtful analysis, doesn't swamp threads like some (ahem), making useful contributions and to my recollection usually stays above the fetid stink of some of the nastier debates.
I've gone for Gisella Stewart for the unsung award. Without her contribution to the Leave campaign, Remain might have won.
Ohh, didn't see your post. Thought similarly, though in the case of Brexit one could give credit to a great number of people on a sine qua non basis. But she was perhaps uniquely impressive in that whole referendum campaign. She is clearly unsung enough for even her fans not to realise she has only one "L" in her name - I had to have a google to get it right myself!
I do think Brexit has potentially global significance - partly because it bucks a decades-long trend of regional supranationalism in international affairs, partly because it may mean Europe evolves in a radically different direction (at the very least, a markedly different pace, but I suspect the course will change too) than if just a few % of the vote had gone the other way.
Trump is globally significant too, but less so in terms of long-term evolution of world affairs , and more in terms of how much change/damage can one man cause in 4 or 8 years. (And how much will be irreversible?) It's largely going to be a test of just how well the U.S. Constitution was written, and how effective U.S. institutions are. The less china-shop they turn out to be, the better...
I was very tempted and initially wrote that. A very cogent chap and I very much hope he and his partner have a better 2017 than 2016.
But AndyJS is always a pleasure to see posting, and for the work he puts into his super-informative spreadsheets - which made a lot of money for people in 2016 - I think this year I had to plump for him in the end.
AndyJS, or RodCrosby, would be my picks.
If we're going on the fact this is a betting website.
I was very tempted and initially wrote that. A very cogent chap and I very much hope he and his partner have a better 2017 than 2016.
But AndyJS is always a pleasure to see posting, and for the work he puts into his super-informative spreadsheets - which made a lot of money for people in 2016 - I think this year I had to plump for him in the end.
AndyJS, or RodCrosby, would be my picks.
If we're going on the fact this is a betting website.
What I'd like for Christmas is a good deal more humour and less vituperation on the site. Its probably because of Brexit but in the years I have been here this has been easily the most bad tempered and argumentative. In fact people talking and arguing less about the EU would be the ideal but I doubt even Santa can fix that.
I think POTY has to be between AM (AntiFrank) and Plato...
I vote tim...
You have to give Plato credit where it's due she predicted Brexit AND Trump would triumph...
Alistair has had an awful year and especially during Brexit he made PB compulsive viwing.
TSE has had a terrible year as well and he's done a good job of keeping the PB show on the road (despite all his trauma's)
Maybe we could have a split POTY?
Aww no, has TSE had a really *****y year too? (Aside from politically, obviously, where he's had a wretched time which will likely have work-related impact too. But he wouldn't be alone in having a politically horrible 2016: YellowSubmarine, Southam, DrFox and various others have my sympathy on that front too.) If he has, I'm sorry I haven't picked up on it. He's done such a huge amount of work for this site, and been in such good form, that I didn't notice any grave personal travails. If so I do hope things look up a bit next year.
What I'd like for Christmas is a good deal more humour and less vituperation on the site. Its probably because of Brexit but in the years I have been here this has been easily the most bad tempered and argumentative. In fact people talking and arguing less about the EU would be the ideal but I doubt even Santa can fix that.
I think POTY has to be between AM (AntiFrank) and Plato...
I vote tim...
You have to give Plato credit where it's due she predicted Brexit AND Trump would triumph...
Alistair has had an awful year and especially during Brexit he made PB compulsive viwing.
TSE has had a terrible year as well and he's done a good job of keeping the PB show on the road (despite all his trauma's)
Maybe we could have a split POTY?
Aww no, has TSE had a really *****y year too? (Aside from politically, obviously, where he's had a wretched time which will likely have work-related impact too. But he wouldn't be alone in having a politically horrible 2016: YellowSubmarine, Southam, DrFox and various others have my sympathy on that front too.) If he has, I'm sorry I haven't picked up on it. He's done such a huge amount of work for this site, and been in such good form, that I didn't notice any grave personal travails. If so I do hope things look up a bit next year.
Oh I meant TSE has has a year of political traumas. Don't know if he's has a lot of personaly traumas too.
O/T reporting back on what I found in Sleaford & North Hykeham - make what you will of it
UKIP are active - Farage and Nuttall have both had public meetings. On the other hand, they managed to spell their candidate's name wrong on a leaflet, and the constituency name wrong on a large banner pictured behind Farage. And their candidate is the woman who in the GE asked "what do we do when the renewable energy runs out?". UKIP were the only people I personally saw campaigning who weren't Lib Dems. But among the voters I spoke to, there were no fervent kippers.
Very very few posters and stakeboards for anyone. I am told far fewer than usual for the Tories. Feels like no-one has really woken up to the fact that there is an election on Thursday, so turnout will be low IMO.
Corbyn has visited. Saw no signs of Labour literature where I was. Saw no signs of Tory literature either but was told there have been several pieces including a letter from Mrs May.
Lib Dems are cheerful and working hard but in smaller numbers than either Richmond Park or Witney. The Lib Dem candidate is the only Remain supporter on the ballot in a constituency that was I believe 38% Remain. Brexit is not the only subject on the Lib Dem leaflets though.
The countryside was lovely, as was the weather, and the natives were friendly. And I set a new daily step record.
What I'd like for Christmas is a good deal more humour and less vituperation on the site. Its probably because of Brexit but in the years I have been here this has been easily the most bad tempered and argumentative. In fact people talking and arguing less about the EU would be the ideal but I doubt even Santa can fix that.
Hopefully we'll have a Christmas truce... I'll even sing carols with ScottP!
O/T reporting back on what I found in Sleaford & North Hykeham - make what you will of it
UKIP are active - Farage and Nuttall have both had public meetings. On the other hand, they managed to spell their candidate's name wrong on a leaflet, and the constituency name wrong on a large banner pictured behind Farage. And their candidate is the woman who in the GE asked "what do we do when the renewable energy runs out?". UKIP were the only people I personally saw campaigning who weren't Lib Dems. But among the voters I spoke to, there were no fervent kippers.
Very very few posters and stakeboards for anyone. I am told far fewer than usual for the Tories. Feels like no-one has really woken up to the fact that there is an election on Thursday, so turnout will be low IMO.
Corbyn has visited. Saw no signs of Labour literature where I was. Saw no signs of Tory literature either but was told there have been several pieces including a letter from Mrs May.
Lib Dems are cheerful and working hard but in smaller numbers than either Richmond Park or Witney. The Lib Dem candidate is the only Remain supporter on the ballot in a constituency that was I believe 38% Remain. Brexit is not the only subject on the Lib Dem leaflets though.
The countryside was lovely, as was the weather, and the natives were friendly. And I set a new daily step record.
As I say, make of it what you will.
Good to hear from the canvassing, leaflet delivering frontlines.
What I'd like for Christmas is a good deal more humour and less vituperation on the site. Its probably because of Brexit but in the years I have been here this has been easily the most bad tempered and argumentative. In fact people talking and arguing less about the EU would be the ideal but I doubt even Santa can fix that.
I had to vote Brexit as more shocking than Trump. With Trump we had the Brexit precedent. I for example was blindsided by Sunderland (my defining moment of 2016), whereas I had expected a Trump victory (so was still shocked, but not surprised).
I think POTY has to be between AM (AntiFrank) and Plato...
I vote tim...
You have to give Plato credit where it's due she predicted Brexit AND Trump would triumph...
Alistair has had an awful year and especially during Brexit he made PB compulsive viwing.
TSE has had a terrible year as well and he's done a good job of keeping the PB show on the road (despite all his trauma's)
Maybe we could have a split POTY?
Aww no, has TSE had a really *****y year too? (Aside from politically, obviously, where he's had a wretched time which will likely have work-related impact too. But he wouldn't be alone in having a politically horrible 2016: YellowSubmarine, Southam, DrFox and various others have my sympathy on that front too.) If he has, I'm sorry I haven't picked up on it. He's done such a huge amount of work for this site, and been in such good form, that I didn't notice any grave personal travails. If so I do hope things look up a bit next year.
Oh I meant TSE has has a year of political traumas. Don't know if he's has a lot of personaly traumas too.
He's been his usual japey self so hopefully all is well (outside politics and work at least).
With the demise of the Cameroons, and TMay's rather drastic defenstration of the backroom staff, I fear we may be getting fewer juicy tips / gossip via TSE in future.
What I'd like for Christmas is a good deal more humour and less vituperation on the site. Its probably because of Brexit but in the years I have been here this has been easily the most bad tempered and argumentative. In fact people talking and arguing less about the EU would be the ideal but I doubt even Santa can fix that.
We can only pray.
That's not all we can do. Now that we are free of the pernicious European Working Time Directive, we can try persuading Santa to relocate his factory to the Northern Powerhouse to reinvigorate our economy. But first we need to decide whether slave-elves count towards the immigration quota.
PoTY of the year should be AndyJS. His spreadsheets enrich us all.
JackW for his wit and wisdom in close second.
Cyclefree Honorary Mention
Unsung Hero/Villain: Aaron Banks. I hate his politics but he financed Brexit and UKIP through the wilderness years.
I was tempted by Banks but gave it to Boris. Boris was IMO the single individual who got Leave over the line. Farage did the leg work over the years but would never have got 52% without Boris presenting a popular, acceptable face of Leave, and probably ate into a lot of middle-class shire tory remain vote. Very few other Leavers could have done that.
What I'd like for Christmas is a good deal more humour and less vituperation on the site. Its probably because of Brexit but in the years I have been here this has been easily the most bad tempered and argumentative. In fact people talking and arguing less about the EU would be the ideal but I doubt even Santa can fix that.
We can only pray.
That's not all we can do. Now that we are free of the pernicious European Working Time Directive, we can try persuading Santa to relocate his factory to the Northern Powerhouse to reinvigorate our economy. But first we need to decide whether slave-elves count towards the immigration quota.
Not entirely sure that someone who gives away his entire output for nothing once a year is going to be the biggest boost to the economy. How does that help the balance of payments?
What I'd like for Christmas is a good deal more humour and less vituperation on the site. Its probably because of Brexit but in the years I have been here this has been easily the most bad tempered and argumentative. In fact people talking and arguing less about the EU would be the ideal but I doubt even Santa can fix that.
We can only pray.
That's not all we can do. Now that we are free of the pernicious European Working Time Directive, we can try persuading Santa to relocate his factory to the Northern Powerhouse to reinvigorate our economy. But first we need to decide whether slave-elves count towards the immigration quota.
What an absurd question - you mark them down as livestock.
I think POTY has to be between AM (AntiFrank) and Plato...
I vote tim...
You have to give Plato credit where it's due she predicted Brexit AND Trump would triumph...
Alistair has had an awful year and especially during Brexit he made PB compulsive viwing.
TSE has had a terrible year as well and he's done a good job of keeping the PB show on the road (despite all his trauma's)
Maybe we could have a split POTY?
Aww no, has TSE had a really *****y year too? (Aside from politically, obviously, where he's had a wretched time which will likely have work-related impact too. But he wouldn't be alone in having a politically horrible 2016: YellowSubmarine, Southam, DrFox and various others have my sympathy on that front too.) If he has, I'm sorry I haven't picked up on it. He's done such a huge amount of work for this site, and been in such good form, that I didn't notice any grave personal travails. If so I do hope things look up a bit next year.
Thanks for the sympathy, but it has been a great year for me too. Leicester won the Premier League, and I had £1 on ew at 3000/1, topped up along the way.
As a LD I am used to political defeat, though Richmond was a pleasant end to the year. The party has turned a corner. Brexit is shit but I can survive it, I am fortunate enough to have skills in demand internationally, and enough money to retire abroad if I wish to do so. It is Fox jr who feels it more.
Are there any betting markets this year on the Time Person of the Year?
By rights it has to be Trump, but I've got a horrible feeling that if they want to snub him they could give it to Nige...
It will be Trump. Anything above 1/10 would be HUGE value.
No-one has heard of Farage outside the UK, so not a snowflake's chance in hell. (I exaggerate a bit, but not much.)
He's getting lots of TV exposure here these days.
Yeah, but it's about who has dominated the news in 2016. Quite apart from anything else, they often choose the president-elect, and it's always very US-centric. This time: no doubt about it, Trump wins hands down, but I very much hope lots of people will want to bet otherwise!
What I'd like for Christmas is a good deal more humour and less vituperation on the site. Its probably because of Brexit but in the years I have been here this has been easily the most bad tempered and argumentative. In fact people talking and arguing less about the EU would be the ideal but I doubt even Santa can fix that.
We can only pray.
That's not all we can do. Now that we are free of the pernicious European Working Time Directive, we can try persuading Santa to relocate his factory to the Northern Powerhouse to reinvigorate our economy. But first we need to decide whether slave-elves count towards the immigration quota.
What an absurd question - you mark them down as livestock.
Following the official announcement of the Valls candidacy his Betfair price collapsed from around 25 yesterday to Under 10. It has gone up again to 13/14 which seems more reasonable. After all, even if he doubled his score in the last first round polls he would probably still be out of the second round.
The Macron price is down again, now 7.7 (10 yesterday). There was no particular event to explain this move (Valls would be the worst socialist opponent for Macron as they have more or less the same ideas on the economy), except that Betfair loves Macron apparently. I have gone long.
The moment of the year will be 23.59.59 on New Year's Eve, when we can finally say this fucking shite year is over, and wake up from this self-administered living nightmare.
O/T reporting back on what I found in Sleaford & North Hykeham - make what you will of it
UKIP are active - Farage and Nuttall have both had public meetings. On the other hand, they managed to spell their candidate's name wrong on a leaflet, and the constituency name wrong on a large banner pictured behind Farage. And their candidate is the woman who in the GE asked "what do we do when the renewable energy runs out?". UKIP were the only people I personally saw campaigning who weren't Lib Dems. But among the voters I spoke to, there were no fervent kippers.
Very very few posters and stakeboards for anyone. I am told far fewer than usual for the Tories. Feels like no-one has really woken up to the fact that there is an election on Thursday, so turnout will be low IMO.
Corbyn has visited. Saw no signs of Labour literature where I was. Saw no signs of Tory literature either but was told there have been several pieces including a letter from Mrs May.
Lib Dems are cheerful and working hard but in smaller numbers than either Richmond Park or Witney. The Lib Dem candidate is the only Remain supporter on the ballot in a constituency that was I believe 38% Remain. Brexit is not the only subject on the Lib Dem leaflets though.
The countryside was lovely, as was the weather, and the natives were friendly. And I set a new daily step record.
As I say, make of it what you will.
Actually the one thing that has surprised me is the number of Caroline Jackson placards in fields along the main routes through the constituency. A17, A46, A15 and lots of minor roads as well with plenty of placards. Not a single placard for any other candidate though.
Comments
For the World, Trump.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/12/05/opinion/why-i-will-not-cast-my-electoral-vote-for-donald-trump.html?referer=https://t.co/PbRQgyRwON
Faithless elector
He is the physical link between the two most important events of the year, and I have to give him credit for that.
I met an old neighbour in the supermarket yesterday. They moved house maybe 5 years ago. And what did she want to talk about?
The Dallas Cowboys...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOJz1zqC2LY
Anything you don't want to answer you can just leave blank.
Unsung hero depends on your perspective entirely. Curious how people answer it. Idea is to get beyond the big names a bit!
Thanks for taking part
But AndyJS is always a pleasure to see posting, and for the work he puts into his super-informative spreadsheets - which made a lot of money for people in 2016 - I think this year I had to plump for him in the end.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/donald-trump-electoral-college-texas-chris-suprun-227422
He supported Jeb Bush in the primaries:
http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2016/02/10/christopher-suprun-its-time-for-texans-to-wake-and-engage-the-political-process
Also he believes that Baseball is God's chosen sport:
http://www.richmond.com/opinion/their-opinion/guest-columnists/article_44198aa9-8bda-57e1-b3d6-3930a558617e.html
"Christianity holds true belief in one God, the Holy Trinity of Father, Son and Holy Spirit. The most rudimentary baseball fan knows that one frame of each inning is divided into three outs. Each at bat is further divided with three strikes. Three strikes and you’re out in baseball. "
And this is just from the first page of google, so you get the idea about his personal opinions.
I forgot about the crazy debates.
I put the moment that Trump was actually declared President which was the ultimate finale of a crazy campaign.
https://twitter.com/ashleyfeinberg/status/805871661019000832
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_constitutional_referendum,_2016
6 million vote lead for the insurgents.
In second place I've gone for Nabavi anyway.
I do think Brexit has potentially global significance - partly because it bucks a decades-long trend of regional supranationalism in international affairs, partly because it may mean Europe evolves in a radically different direction (at the very least, a markedly different pace, but I suspect the course will change too) than if just a few % of the vote had gone the other way.
Trump is globally significant too, but less so in terms of long-term evolution of world affairs , and more in terms of how much change/damage can one man cause in 4 or 8 years. (And how much will be irreversible?) It's largely going to be a test of just how well the U.S. Constitution was written, and how effective U.S. institutions are. The less china-shop they turn out to be, the better...
Alistair has had an awful year and especially during Brexit he made PB compulsive viwing.
TSE has had a terrible year as well and he's done a good job of keeping the PB show on the road (despite all his trauma's)
Maybe we could have a split POTY?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvDlsvuv9W0
Or Trump defending his personal member size on the debate stage:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ls6JfQOmmU
If we're going on the fact this is a betting website.
JackW for his wit and wisdom in close second.
Cyclefree Honorary Mention
Unsung Hero/Villain: Aaron Banks. I hate his politics but he financed Brexit and UKIP through the wilderness years.
* Might be a bit biased as his spreadsheet made it a very merry Christmas in the Urquhart household...
Rod Crosby could get NPOTY (non-poster of the year award)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38217040
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/anti-brexit-parties-would-win-150-fewer-seats-than-pro-leave-par/
(or women)
UKIP are active - Farage and Nuttall have both had public meetings. On the other hand, they managed to spell their candidate's name wrong on a leaflet, and the constituency name wrong on a large banner pictured behind Farage. And their candidate is the woman who in the GE asked "what do we do when the renewable energy runs out?". UKIP were the only people I personally saw campaigning who weren't Lib Dems. But among the voters I spoke to, there were no fervent kippers.
Very very few posters and stakeboards for anyone. I am told far fewer than usual for the Tories. Feels like no-one has really woken up to the fact that there is an election on Thursday, so turnout will be low IMO.
Corbyn has visited. Saw no signs of Labour literature where I was. Saw no signs of Tory literature either but was told there have been several pieces including a letter from Mrs May.
Lib Dems are cheerful and working hard but in smaller numbers than either Richmond Park or Witney. The Lib Dem candidate is the only Remain supporter on the ballot in a constituency that was I believe 38% Remain. Brexit is not the only subject on the Lib Dem leaflets though.
The countryside was lovely, as was the weather, and the natives were friendly. And I set a new daily step record.
As I say, make of it what you will.
Or she saw the documentary on TV last week "There's Only One America's Team"
With the demise of the Cameroons, and TMay's rather drastic defenstration of the backroom staff, I fear we may be getting fewer juicy tips / gossip via TSE in future.
No-one has heard of Farage outside the UK, so not a snowflake's chance in hell. (I exaggerate a bit, but not much.)
As a LD I am used to political defeat, though Richmond was a pleasant end to the year. The party has turned a corner. Brexit is shit but I can survive it, I am fortunate enough to have skills in demand internationally, and enough money to retire abroad if I wish to do so. It is Fox jr who feels it more.
Following the official announcement of the Valls candidacy his Betfair price collapsed from around 25 yesterday to Under 10. It has gone up again to 13/14 which seems more reasonable.
After all, even if he doubled his score in the last first round polls he would probably still be out of the second round.
The Macron price is down again, now 7.7 (10 yesterday). There was no particular event to explain this move (Valls would be the worst socialist opponent for Macron as they have more or less the same ideas on the economy), except that Betfair loves Macron apparently. I have gone long.