Just finished three hours knocking up. The old local authority houses (now £1m+) are generally Brexit having swung a bit from tactical LD to UKIP (or Zac in this case). The big houses (£3m+) which are generally city or wealthy intellectuals are all Remainers and very pro LD. Quite a switch since I last did this eleven years ago.
A quick mug of soup then off out knocking up again.
Another world...
How is the telling looking, is the Lib Dem vote coming out in expected numbers ? Are Zac's chaps and ladies heading out ?
I'm not privy to the numbers. I'm just a lowly foot soldier. It's not as brisk as it was earlier. This evening will be the challenge as people come home from work between 6 and 7, tired and cold - and we have to persuade them to go out into the darkness again and vote.
TBH, PB hasn't covered itself in glory for the best part of 20-15/16. It's noticeably biased against conservative views. Dismissing opinions that aren't liberal is the default. They're an aberration that reflects all the worst of civilisation. Actually, we aren't. We simply disagree for very good reasons - those liberals/globalists don't understand or even try to appreciate our POV.
The MSM is the same - it's terribly misleading on so many levels and particularly so re betting.
We're now the dominate electoral force, and liberals are about to experience what we've felt for the last 30yrs.
Yes, in the imaginary reality of the reactionary right there is non so oppressed as a right winger.
They often say this from their national newspaper columsn or TV shows.
In the the imaginary reality Obama never says Merry Christmas and that reality somehow holds even after 30 seconds of googling shows a video clip of Obama saying Merry Christmas.
It is something normal decent people who accept actual real reality will have to deal with, that fantasists have seized control of power in America.
They can only seize power if a large and significant number of people believe them. Speaking to my own family members who spew conspiracy theories as if they are gospel I'm not surprised really. Everyone has their own sources now, we are down the rabbit hole and never going back.
I do wonder though if Facebook/others will come up with some kind of workable fake news warning/flag system... I think something like that would definitely reduce the number of conspiracy theorists a great deal. Even just having a warning that something might be bogus makes people read more critically...
Stein also is raising enough money to follow through on her vow to request a recount of votes in the battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — three states that swung the 2016 presidential election to Donald J. Trump by razor-thin margins.
Florida was "razor thin" back in 2000, 100,000 votes simply is not.
In UK constituencies with ~60,000 votes I think it's unheard of to shift it more than 100 votes?
Not so. I was once told a story by Bob Mitchell a former Labour - later SDP - MP about the count at Southampton Test in 1964. The Tories were defending a majority of circa 7000 from 1959. At the end of the initial count Mitchell was down by circa 1600 in relation to his Tory opponent.He explained that for some reason he was not entirely happy with the conduct of the count so he asked for a recount. Attempts were made to talk him out of it , but he stood his ground and was eventually granted a 'bundle' recount.In the course of that, one of the counters suddenly shouted 'Stop!'. It was then discovered that several bundles of Mitchell's votes - each bundle being 100 votes - had been wrongly included in the Tory pile. The effect of the adjustment was to reduce the Tory majority to about 300 - and a full recount then followed which pretty well confirmed that margin.
Not just a story - it happened to me on a smaller scale in May. From our sampling at verification stage, I weighted the box counts with postals and thought that I'd win by 400. The first count came out with me 600 ahead. My opponents flipped a lid and even I raised a quizzical eyebrow. We both agreed a quick bundle check. 100 of their votes were in my pile. Switched over, that made a majority of 397 (so feeling a bit smug both about winning well and getting such a good estimate from the verification.) There seemed little point in going for a full recount based on this, so we agreed to declare that.
A bundle check is much quicker than a full recount, and far more likely to switch a serious number of votes over. A full recount only needed if it's wafer thin margin or you think the counting team have not been up to scratch.
There have also been occasions when a whole ballot box has not been opened and counted . This happened in a Cheltenham local election a few years ago . The winner was not affected though the Conservative majority was much increased as the unopened ballot box was from a strongly Lib Dem area . Similar things happened in a couple of London wards in 2010 .
I also note that the Dutch guy has said there will be a way for the UK to maintain access to the EU internal market from the outside. All of this as the makings of a deal.
1. Guy Verhofstadt says British people could pay to maintain rights, assume this can be made reciprocal. 2. Davis says we are probably up for paying protection money to the EU. 3. Jeroen Dijsselbloem says there will be a way for the UK to maintain access to the internal market after leaving.
I don't know about anyone else, but that seems to me the basis of full single market access with a transactional migration system.
TBH, PB hasn't covered itself in glory for the best part of 20-15/16. It's noticeably biased against conservative views. Dismissing opinions that aren't liberal is the default. They're an aberration that reflects all the worst of civilisation. Actually, we aren't. We simply disagree for very good reasons - those liberals/globalists don't understand or even try to appreciate our POV.
The MSM is the same - it's terribly misleading on so many levels and particularly so re betting.
We're now the dominate electoral force, and liberals are about to experience what we've felt for the last 30yrs.
Yes, in the imaginary reality of the reactionary right there is non so oppressed as a right winger.
They often say this from their national newspaper columsn or TV shows.
In the the imaginary reality Obama never says Merry Christmas and that reality somehow holds even after 30 seconds of googling shows a video clip of Obama saying Merry Christmas.
It is something normal decent people who accept actual real reality will have to deal with, that fantasists have seized control of power in America.
They can only seize power if a large and significant number of people believe them. Speaking to my own family members who spew conspiracy theories as if they are gospel I'm not surprised really. Everyone has their own sources now, we are down the rabbit hole and never going back.
I do wonder though if Facebook/others will come up with some kind of workable fake news warning/flag system... I think something like that would definitely reduce the number of conspiracy theorists a great deal. Even just having a warning that something might be bogus makes people read more critically...
I don't think it makes THAT much of a difference tbh. If they don't get it from fb they'll get it from somewhere else. One of my cousins for e.g gets his news from Russia today which is a propagandy channel.
There have also been occasions when a whole ballot box has not been opened and counted . This happened in a Cheltenham local election a few years ago . The winner was not affected though the Conservative majority was much increased as the unopened ballot box was from a strongly Lib Dem area . Similar things happened in a couple of London wards in 2010 .
TBH, PB hasn't covered itself in glory for the best part of 20-15/16. It's noticeably biased against conservative views. Dismissing opinions that aren't liberal is the default. They're an aberration that reflects all the worst of civilisation. Actually, we aren't. We simply disagree for very good reasons - those liberals/globalists don't understand or even try to appreciate our POV.
The MSM is the same - it's terribly misleading on so many levels and particularly so re betting.
We're now the dominate electoral force, and liberals are about to experience what we've felt for the last 30yrs.
Yes, in the imaginary reality of the reactionary right there is non so oppressed as a right winger.
They often say this from their national newspaper columsn or TV shows.
In the the imaginary reality Obama never says Merry Christmas and that reality somehow holds even after 30 seconds of googling shows a video clip of Obama saying Merry Christmas.
It is something normal decent people who accept actual real reality will have to deal with, that fantasists have seized control of power in America.
They can only seize power if a large and significant number of people believe them. Speaking to my own family members who spew conspiracy theories as if they are gospel I'm not surprised really. Everyone has their own sources now, we are down the rabbit hole and never going back.
I do wonder though if Facebook/others will come up with some kind of workable fake news warning/flag system... I think something like that would definitely reduce the number of conspiracy theorists a great deal. Even just having a warning that something might be bogus makes people read more critically...
Anybody who hasn't already worked out that what they see on Facebook might be bogus is probably incapable of reading, let alone critically.
It's a payment into the solidarity fund which is used for regional development. It is aid spending, just in Europe.
LOL. I look forward to the EU agreeing to that fudge! Even if it goes ahead, is still money going into the EU and will free money up to be spent elsewhere if they wanted.
I mean, you wouldn't want to tell the EU what to do even after we'd left, would you?
How we class our spending is nothing to do with them, as long as they get their money I'm sure they won't care what we call it.
The EU might not care, but the great British public might.
If we give money to the EU, it needs to be crystal clear how much is given each year, and where it is coming from. If you wish to take it out of the DFiD budget, then you should make it clear which current projects you are defunding.
I have to say I think most people won't care and the majority who do care will like the fudge. A small minority in the charity sector will bitch but I don't see it really making much difference.
I don't agree. Some newspapers at least will be screaming and calling it a betrayal. And it will be easy to sell it as such.
Whatever we do, it needs to be clear and honest. Taking it from the DfID seems to be neither.
The same newspapers that would love to see the aid budget cut to nil? It would be the Guardian and the BBC who would bitch about it, not the Mail or Telegraph who would shout with glee from the rooftops as to how the government have been smart to embarrass the EU by classing payments as aid.
Which would be the bigger story in those newspapers' eyes? DFiD being defunded, or the fact that the EU is still getting our money? The latter, obviously, would be a massive scandal.
Some, if not all, newspapers trade on what gets their readers worked up.
The Guardian and the BBC would have sob stories about foreign aid projects that have been cancelled. The Mail and Express will be screaming how hundreds of millions that should be going to the NHS is now going to those awful foreigners and wastrels in the EU.
I don't see how you could get the electorate to vote for continuing payments to the EU. I notice the Italian bank in trouble in the news made its first call to raise money in London - shouldn't we be charging for access?
It will depend on the terms on offer. A substantially smaller fee, combined with freedom from the CJEU and Commission directives (at least as far as internal UK matters goes) and an end to the freedom of movement, in return for tariff- and quota-free access to the Single Market would probably be saleable, for example.
Especially if we shift the burden of payments to DfID. It would represent a real saving then.
No, no and thrice no. Such payments would not be within the purview of DfID, and would restrict their work.
If you want a debate on restricting the money spent on DfID, fair enough. Let's have one. Reducing it by 'hiding' payments to the EU in it treats the voters with contempt.
The money paid to the EU after we leave will be pretty much exclusively used for regional development. It is aid for poor European regions. If we pay into the EU research budget then that can come from Education or BEI. There is no hiding involved, we are classing regional development spending as aid spending, which is probably fair.
We would not be paying them to further regional development. We would be paying them so we can access things we want.
It is up to the EU how they spend that money; in fact, how they spend it would be none of our business.They could spend it on regional development, an EU army, a space program; anything.
Do we need a debate on the DfID budget and its spending? Yes. Let's have that debate. But trying to pull the wool over the electorate's eyes by pretending we are not paying the EU would be wrong.
That's not actually true. Norway makes a number of different payments to the EU, some of which are specifically for regional development. It also opts-in to programmes such as Erasmus, CERN, Gallileo, etc.
Then it needs to be stated in the deal that the money is going for those purposes, and the EU has to agree to it.
Also, are those opt-in programs paid for as separate programs at the moment, or was it all lumped into the infamous "£350 miillion" figure? If it is separate than it's irrelevant.
Yes all those programmes are included in the 350m.
Then the £350 million figure was even more of a lie.
The Mail and Express will be screaming how hundreds of millions that should be going to the NHS is now going to those awful foreigners and wastrels in the EU.
Maybe they could find a photo to go with the story...
There have also been occasions when a whole ballot box has not been opened and counted . This happened in a Cheltenham local election a few years ago . The winner was not affected though the Conservative majority was much increased as the unopened ballot box was from a strongly Lib Dem area . Similar things happened in a couple of London wards in 2010 .
I sometimes wonder if we should have more checks and balances in the system, which currently acts a certain amount on trust. A few random bundle checks and even recounts in certain (random?) constituencies? Random PV checks? Checks of procedures in random polling stations?
They would not cost much, and might pick up procedural issues, if not fraud.
People want to read stories that reinforce their own prejudices.
Indeed. I think the Express would probably be the only makor newspaper to respond like JJ is suggesting. They would play to their own galleries.
Guardian - look at all these charity workers losing their jobs! Telegraph/Mail - government embarrasses EU by classing payments as aid spending. Express - government betrays people by paying into the EU budget. Times - government fudges EU budget payments.
Interesting feedback from my daughter who has just voted for Sarah. The "school mums" who chatter at the school gates have all been in love with Zac but have gone off him big time because of Brexit and also the mayoral campaign. They also admire Sarah as a young mum having a go. There are lots of wealthy young mums in Barnes. A straw in the wind?
People want to read stories that reinforce their own prejudices.
Indeed. I think the Express would probably be the only makor newspaper to respond like JJ is suggesting. They would play to their own galleries.
Guardian - look at all these charity workers losing their jobs! Telegraph/Mail - government embarrasses EU by classing payments as aid spending. Express - government betrays people by paying into the EU budget. Times - government fudges EU budget payments.
AEP: British payments to EU prove Eurozone will collapse next Tuesday
There have also been occasions when a whole ballot box has not been opened and counted . This happened in a Cheltenham local election a few years ago . The winner was not affected though the Conservative majority was much increased as the unopened ballot box was from a strongly Lib Dem area . Similar things happened in a couple of London wards in 2010 .
I sometimes wonder if we should have more checks and balances in the system, which currently acts a certain amount on trust. A few random bundle checks and even recounts in certain (random?) constituencies? Random PV checks? Checks of procedures in random polling stations?
They would not cost much, and might pick up procedural issues, if not fraud.
Sounds fair. You could imagine a complete recount in maybe ten or twenty random seats by a separate team.
Just finished three hours knocking up. The old local authority houses (now £1m+) are generally Brexit having swung a bit from tactical LD to UKIP (or Zac in this case). The big houses (£3m+) which are generally city or wealthy intellectuals are all Remainers and very pro LD. Quite a switch since I last did this eleven years ago.
A quick mug of soup then off out knocking up again.
Another world...
How is the telling looking, is the Lib Dem vote coming out in expected numbers ? Are Zac's chaps and ladies heading out ?
I'm not privy to the numbers. I'm just a lowly foot soldier. It's not as brisk as it was earlier. This evening will be the challenge as people come home from work between 6 and 7, tired and cold - and we have to persuade them to go out into the darkness again and vote.
Will you be heading to the count later ?
I don't think so. I've done a few counts in the past but I suspect there will be lots of experienced people there. I prefer to watch it unfold on TV but I'm going to try to get a mole to text me when they see the size of the bundles.
People want to read stories that reinforce their own prejudices.
Indeed. I think the Express would probably be the only makor newspaper to respond like JJ is suggesting. They would play to their own galleries.
Guardian - look at all these charity workers losing their jobs! Telegraph/Mail - government embarrasses EU by classing payments as aid spending. Express - government betrays people by paying into the EU budget. Times - government fudges EU budget payments.
AEP: British payments to EU prove Eurozone will collapse next Tuesday
Dan Hodges: Why British payments to the EU is bad news for Jeremy Corbyn.
TBH, PB hasn't covered itself in glory for the best part of 20-15/16. It's noticeably biased against conservative views. Dismissing opinions that aren't liberal is the default. They're an aberration that reflects all the worst of civilisation. Actually, we aren't. We simply disagree for very good reasons - those liberals/globalists don't understand or even try to appreciate our POV.
The MSM is the same - it's terribly misleading on so many levels and particularly so re betting.
We're now the dominate electoral force, and liberals are about to experience what we've felt for the last 30yrs.
Yes, in the imaginary reality of the reactionary right there is non so oppressed as a right winger.
They often say this from their national newspaper columsn or TV shows.
In the the imaginary reality Obama never says Merry Christmas and that reality somehow holds even after 30 seconds of googling shows a video clip of Obama saying Merry Christmas.
It is something normal decent people who accept actual real reality will have to deal with, that fantasists have seized control of power in America.
They can only seize power if a large and significant number of people believe them. Speaking to my own family members who spew conspiracy theories as if they are gospel I'm not surprised really. Everyone has their own sources now, we are down the rabbit hole and never going back.
I do wonder though if Facebook/others will come up with some kind of workable fake news warning/flag system... I think something like that would definitely reduce the number of conspiracy theorists a great deal. Even just having a warning that something might be bogus makes people read more critically...
Anybody who hasn't already worked out that what they see on Facebook might be bogus is probably incapable of reading, let alone critically.
There are professional outfits manufacturing fake news who go to considerable lengths to be convincing. Determining that they are bogus requires far too much research for the casual reader.
At the same time... There are niche blogs out there who are excellent in their fields.
People want to read stories that reinforce their own prejudices.
Indeed. I think the Express would probably be the only makor newspaper to respond like JJ is suggesting. They would play to their own galleries.
Guardian - look at all these charity workers losing their jobs! Telegraph/Mail - government embarrasses EU by classing payments as aid spending. Express - government betrays people by paying into the EU budget. Times - government fudges EU budget payments.
AEP: British payments to EU prove Eurozone will collapse next Tuesday
That's a very optimistic view given that AEP's other piece predicts the whole of Western civilization will be gone on the Sunday.
He takes the time to identify the symptoms but very little to identify the cause. A good read though. I'd venture that if governments spent more time looking after their own constituents and less time on importing millions of migrants the European continent wouldn't be staring down the barrel of a fascist gun.
@AlexForsythBBC: Peter Bone says David Davis' comments have been "grossly misinterpreted" & there's no reason to pay a penny for single market access #Brexit
People want to read stories that reinforce their own prejudices.
True. But they also want those stories to be convincing and believable.
And that could be made harder if when you go to click on the meme saying Barack Obama is a Muslim or John McCain is an adulterer there is some kind of bullshit flag.
Of course the true believers will never be swayed... But I d think it will make a lot of people more cautious and hesitant to believe something.
People want to read stories that reinforce their own prejudices.
Indeed. I think the Express would probably be the only makor newspaper to respond like JJ is suggesting. They would play to their own galleries.
Guardian - look at all these charity workers losing their jobs! Telegraph/Mail - government embarrasses EU by classing payments as aid spending. Express - government betrays people by paying into the EU budget. Times - government fudges EU budget payments.
AEP: British payments to EU prove Eurozone will collapse next Tuesday
Tuesday seems like a longer time frame than usual!
"But the case took a bizarre turn when it was discovered that the agent, who only joined the organisation in April, had also used his chat room pseudonym to appear in gay porn films, according to the Washington Post.
If a bank wants access to the commonm market and can justify the charge, let them do it. No need to ask for tax payer help. It seems to me that people are against tax payer support for other industries.
Just finished three hours knocking up. The old local authority houses (now £1m+) are generally Brexit having swung a bit from tactical LD to UKIP (or Zac in this case). The big houses (£3m+) which are generally city or wealthy intellectuals are all Remainers and very pro LD. Quite a switch since I last did this eleven years ago.
A quick mug of soup then off out knocking up again.
Another world...
How is the telling looking, is the Lib Dem vote coming out in expected numbers ? Are Zac's chaps and ladies heading out ?
I'm not privy to the numbers. I'm just a lowly foot soldier. It's not as brisk as it was earlier. This evening will be the challenge as people come home from work between 6 and 7, tired and cold - and we have to persuade them to go out into the darkness again and vote.
Will you be heading to the count later ?
I don't think so. I've done a few counts in the past but I suspect there will be lots of experienced people there. I prefer to watch it unfold on TV but I'm going to try to get a mole to text me when they see the size of the bundles.
TBH, PB hasn't covered itself in glory for the best part of 20-15/16. It's noticeably biased against conservative views. Dismissing opinions that aren't liberal is the default. They're an aberration that reflects all the worst of civilisation. Actually, we aren't. We simply disagree for very good reasons - those liberals/globalists don't understand or even try to appreciate our POV.
The MSM is the same - it's terribly misleading on so many levels and particularly so re betting.
We're now the dominate electoral force, and liberals are about to experience what we've felt for the last 30yrs.
Yes, in the imaginary reality of the reactionary right there is non so oppressed as a right winger.
They often say this from their national newspaper columsn or TV shows.
In the the imaginary reality Obama never says Merry Christmas and that reality somehow holds even after 30 seconds of googling shows a video clip of Obama saying Merry Christmas.
It is something normal decent people who accept actual real reality will have to deal with, that fantasists have seized control of power in America.
They can only seize power if a large and significant number of people believe them. Speaking to my own family members who spew conspiracy theories as if they are gospel I'm not surprised really. Everyone has their own sources now, we are down the rabbit hole and never going back.
I do wonder though if Facebook/others will come up with some kind of workable fake news warning/flag system... I think something like that would definitely reduce the number of conspiracy theorists a great deal. Even just having a warning that something might be bogus makes people read more critically...
Anybody who hasn't already worked out that what they see on Facebook might be bogus is probably incapable of reading, let alone critically.
Disagree. I know many older people who read stories on FB and are shocked with what they read and believe it. I'm sure many people on here will know people like this, they are very intelligent people normally but can't make out the difference between bogus stories which often have an ounce of truth in them and reliably sourced news. In my exerience younger people are sceptical about everything prehaps because they grew up with the internet.
Wholesale natural gas up to $3.40, I think our frackable reserves become viable at about $4. TMay to get oil and gas boost before 2020?
The gas price you're quoting is Henry Hub, i.e, the US price. The price you need to look at is the LNG price, and spot deliveries to the UK are about $7 right now. (The LNG spot market is not very liquid, no pun intended, and tends to jump around.)
The cost for economically extracting shale gas in the UK is probably around $12/mmbtu right now, simply because it takes a long time to fully understand optimal sand quantities, lateral lengths, and the like. One would expect that number to come down over time, but I would be surprised if it got much below about $8. Why? Because the UK is a densely populated country, with relatively expensive land, costs of operation will always be much higher than in the US.
TBH, PB hasn't covered itself in glory for the best part of 20-15/16. It's noticeably biased against conservative views. Dismissing opinions that aren't liberal is the default. They're an aberration that reflects all the worst of civilisation. Actually, we aren't. We simply disagree for very good reasons - those liberals/globalists don't understand or even try to appreciate our POV.
The MSM is the same - it's terribly misleading on so many levels and particularly so re betting.
We're now the dominate electoral force, and liberals are about to experience what we've felt for the last 30yrs.
Yes, in the imaginary reality of the reactionary right there is non so oppressed as a right winger.
They often say this from their national newspaper columsn or TV shows.
In the the imaginary reality Obama never says Merry Christmas and that reality somehow holds even after 30 seconds of googling shows a video clip of Obama saying Merry Christmas.
It is something normal decent people who accept actual real reality will have to deal with, that fantasists have seized control of power in America.
They can only seize power if a large and significant number of people believe them. Speaking to my own family members who spew conspiracy theories as if they are gospel I'm not surprised really. Everyone has their own sources now, we are down the rabbit hole and never going back.
I do wonder though if Facebook/others will come up with some kind of workable fake news warning/flag system... I think something like that would definitely reduce the number of conspiracy theorists a great deal. Even just having a warning that something might be bogus makes people read more critically...
Anybody who hasn't already worked out that what they see on Facebook might be bogus is probably incapable of reading, let alone critically.
Disagree. I know many older people who read stories on FB and are shocked with what they read and believe it. I'm sure many people on here will know people like this, they are very intelligent people normally but can't make out the difference between bogus stories which often have an ounce of truth in them and reliably sourced news. In my exerience younger people are sceptical about everything prehaps because they grew up with the internet.
It does make you wonder what crap some older people lapped up in years and decades gone by, just because someone supposedly in authority said it.
So not impossible for a young woman - I don't know her, she was one of my mother's carers but not seen her for a few years. I don't mind the money, but £6500 this year to clear debts and the debts haven't reduced - and I really don't want to give money to rapacious banks if she is going bust anyway.
He takes the time to identify the symptoms but very little to identify the cause. A good read though. I'd venture that if governments spent more time looking after their own constituents and less time on importing millions of migrants the European continent wouldn't be staring down the barrel of a fascist gun.
But that explanation doesn't quite square with his figures, which seem to show that support for democracy is highest amongst the old, and dramatically lower among the young - which is quite different from the figures for those strongly opposed to immigration.
Identifying 'a cause', is in any event likely to be a matter of expressing an opinion, rather than coming up with something demonstrably true.
So not impossible for a young woman - I don't know her, she was one of my mother's carers but not seen her for a few years. I don't mind the money, but £6500 this year to clear debts and the debts haven't reduced - and I really don't want to give money to rapacious banks if she is going bust anyway.
She's either incapable of managing her affairs or has been missold somewhere along the line (or both). Based on the kind of usage I'd expect, she shouldn't be paying more than £50 a month at the absolute most, and that would be with a high end phone on contract too.
I also note that the Dutch guy has said there will be a way for the UK to maintain access to the EU internal market from the outside. All of this as the makings of a deal.
1. Guy Verhofstadt says British people could pay to maintain rights, assume this can be made reciprocal. 2. Davis says we are probably up for paying protection money to the EU. 3. Jeroen Dijsselbloem says there will be a way for the UK to maintain access to the internal market after leaving.
I don't know about anyone else, but that seems to me the basis of full single market access with a transactional migration system.
I don't know about anything else, but it would be a solution that a lot of remainers would be happy with. We can still trade in Europe and can point to the payments as proof that the outers were deluded. It is also a good 'go back in later' approach as it won't oblige the UK to look for alternative supply chains. If it could be put in place by this time next year it would also work for people who have leaver family members whose crowing is going to be intolerable at family gatherings this Xmas.
Those figures are indeed concerning; the ones for support for democracy quite alarming. Interestingly, Poland had what might be viewed as a 'benign dictatorship' between the wars, which might possibly still colour present day attitudes.
He takes the time to identify the symptoms but very little to identify the cause. A good read though. I'd venture that if governments spent more time looking after their own constituents and less time on importing millions of migrants the European continent wouldn't be staring down the barrel of a fascist gun.
But that explanation doesn't quite square with his figures, which seem to show that support for democracy is highest amongst the old, and dramatically lower among the young - which is quite different from the figures for those strongly opposed to immigration.
Identifying 'a cause', is in any event likely to be a matter of expressing an opinion, rather than coming up with something demonstrably true.
If you look at the polling (I know, polling) in Europe, it is young people who are against migration more than old people. The recebt anti-immigration movement in Austria was started by a group of young people who propelled Hofer into the second round and possibly to victory. The younger generation in the EU have no war guilt or liberal guilt to contend with.
I also note that the Dutch guy has said there will be a way for the UK to maintain access to the EU internal market from the outside. All of this as the makings of a deal.
1. Guy Verhofstadt says British people could pay to maintain rights, assume this can be made reciprocal. 2. Davis says we are probably up for paying protection money to the EU. 3. Jeroen Dijsselbloem says there will be a way for the UK to maintain access to the internal market after leaving.
I don't know about anyone else, but that seems to me the basis of full single market access with a transactional migration system.
I don't know about anything else, but it would be a solution that a lot of remainers would be happy with.
And a solution that a lot of other European countries could find attractive. You can see why some in Brussels are still looking for the "punishment" route for the UK...
I also note that the Dutch guy has said there will be a way for the UK to maintain access to the EU internal market from the outside. All of this as the makings of a deal.
1. Guy Verhofstadt says British people could pay to maintain rights, assume this can be made reciprocal. 2. Davis says we are probably up for paying protection money to the EU. 3. Jeroen Dijsselbloem says there will be a way for the UK to maintain access to the internal market after leaving.
I don't know about anyone else, but that seems to me the basis of full single market access with a transactional migration system.
I don't know about anything else, but it would be a solution that a lot of remainers would be happy with. We can still trade in Europe and can point to the payments as proof that the outers were deluded. It is also a good 'go back in later' approach as it won't oblige the UK to look for alternative supply chains. If it could be put in place by this time next year it would also work for people who have leaver family members whose crowing is going to be intolerable at family gatherings this Xmas.
And a lot of the leave side too. As was shown out today, half of net migration was by people who don't have a job or aren't students. Under a transactional system that would not be possible. We'd also see no real economic effect, positive or negative with a deal that retains full single market access. Ultimately we'd be out of the EU and away from its political tendrils, which I think would be satisfactory. Even the payments would be significantly less than the net £10.5-11bn we are currently paying in. Based on Norway's structure it would be something like £2-4bn net and £4-6bn gross.
@paulwaugh: I'm told turnout in Richmond Park is much higher than expected in by elections at this stage in day ie strong grey vote. Cd be good for Zac
@paulwaugh: I'm told turnout in Richmond Park is much higher than expected in by elections at this stage in day ie strong grey vote. Cd be good for Zac
But LibDems expect boost for them later from commuters (many of whose jobs rely on soft Brexit) returning home and voting
Comments
1. Guy Verhofstadt says British people could pay to maintain rights, assume this can be made reciprocal.
2. Davis says we are probably up for paying protection money to the EU.
3. Jeroen Dijsselbloem says there will be a way for the UK to maintain access to the internal market after leaving.
I don't know about anyone else, but that seems to me the basis of full single market access with a transactional migration system.
Chill out a little. The Chicken Little antics have been overtaken by events. The sky is still there, you know.
Some, if not all, newspapers trade on what gets their readers worked up.
The Guardian and the BBC would have sob stories about foreign aid projects that have been cancelled. The Mail and Express will be screaming how hundreds of millions that should be going to the NHS is now going to those awful foreigners and wastrels in the EU.
I agree, and that's exactly what I think.
They would not cost much, and might pick up procedural issues, if not fraud.
Guardian - look at all these charity workers losing their jobs!
Telegraph/Mail - government embarrasses EU by classing payments as aid spending.
Express - government betrays people by paying into the EU budget.
Times - government fudges EU budget payments.
Switching to a contributions based welfare state would cover the rest.
Or are we in Woonderland where Brexit doesn't mean Brexit?
At the same time... There are niche blogs out there who are excellent in their fields.
@AlexForsythBBC: Peter Bone says David Davis' comments have been "grossly misinterpreted" & there's no reason to pay a penny for single market access #Brexit
And that could be made harder if when you go to click on the meme saying Barack Obama is a Muslim or John McCain is an adulterer there is some kind of bullshit flag.
Of course the true believers will never be swayed... But I d think it will make a lot of people more cautious and hesitant to believe something.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/german-spy-arrested-over-islamist-bomb-plot-was-a-gay-porn-actor-a3409906.html
"But the case took a bizarre turn when it was discovered that the agent, who only joined the organisation in April, had also used his chat room pseudonym to appear in gay porn films, according to the Washington Post.
The cost for economically extracting shale gas in the UK is probably around $12/mmbtu right now, simply because it takes a long time to fully understand optimal sand quantities, lateral lengths, and the like. One would expect that number to come down over time, but I would be surprised if it got much below about $8. Why? Because the UK is a densely populated country, with relatively expensive land, costs of operation will always be much higher than in the US.
Identifying 'a cause', is in any event likely to be a matter of expressing an opinion, rather than coming up with something demonstrably true.
Interestingly, Poland had what might be viewed as a 'benign dictatorship' between the wars, which might possibly still colour present day attitudes.
If you're on the wrong tariff, the out of bundle costs can be expensive.
My tariff is £75 a month.
£35 for the device plan, and £40 for the airtime.
O2 offers even more expensive tariffs than that.
And I'm paying £40 a month for the iPad.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/12/a-look-back-at-2016-and-ahead-to-2017.html
The iPad release cycles are all over the place.
What this deal allows me is to share the 50GB a month I get with both devices.
@paulwaugh: I'm told turnout in Richmond Park is much higher than expected in by elections at this stage in day ie strong grey vote. Cd be good for Zac
But LibDems expect boost for them later from commuters (many of whose jobs rely on soft Brexit) returning home and voting