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  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Ms Davidson’s personal net approval is now at 25 points, up from 21 in the last Times poll three months ago. Her overall net positive rating is more than double Ms Sturgeon’s 11 points.

    Support for the Conservatives is up in both the constituency vote and the regional vote, from 21 per cent in both in August, to 25 per cent and 24 per cent. Support for the SNP, meanwhile, has dropped from 52 per cent to 48 per cent in the constituency vote and 45 per cent to 39 per cent in the regional vote.

    And a very happy St Andrew's Day to one and all !
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    Scott_P said:

    Ms Davidson’s personal net approval is now at 25 points, up from 21 in the last Times poll three months ago. Her overall net positive rating is more than double Ms Sturgeon’s 11 points.

    Support for the Conservatives is up in both the constituency vote and the regional vote, from 21 per cent in both in August, to 25 per cent and 24 per cent. Support for the SNP, meanwhile, has dropped from 52 per cent to 48 per cent in the constituency vote and 45 per cent to 39 per cent in the regional vote.

    And a very happy St Andrew's Day to one and all !
    A cause that can unite Remain and Leave Tories :D
  • Greetings from Hong Kong. Judging by the weather reports from the UK it looks like a good time to be away doing our bit for Brexit Britain. Off to Shanghai on Saturday, where we have a big event taking place at the Ritz Carlton from Sunday to Tuesday. The lag is cruel!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,755

    DavidL said:

    Given that the SNP (and SDLP and PC and Green) will caucus with Labour only and not the Tories if we put them in a red rainbow column what lead would the assorted left need to win?

    I think that is a solid point. A major factor in this very high lead for Labour before they get a majority is the catastrophe they have suffered in Scotland where 50 previously very safe seats have all gone massively reducing the efficiency of their vote overall. But those seats have gone to the SNP and they are very unlikely to support a tory government, especially one committed to Brexit so the efficiency comes back again indirectly.

    In contrast according to the ICM poll yesterday the Tories are at the giddy heights of 30% in Scotland. Given the hegemony of the SNP this actually reduces the efficiency of their vote because that 30% would win them less than 5 seats resulting in over 1m wasted votes.
    It would also reduce Labour's inefficiency, as they'd have around 150k fewer votes returning 1 less MP.
    Indeed. The downside, as we saw in 2015, is that the English may not fancy a Labour government propped up by the SNP and vote accordingly.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484

    Greetings from Hong Kong. Judging by the weather reports from the UK it looks like a good time to be away doing our bit for Brexit Britain. Off to Shanghai on Saturday, where we have a big event taking place at the Ritz Carlton from Sunday to Tuesday. The lag is cruel!

    Good luck in flying the flag.

    Yep, I always found that part of the world was vicious for the lag. Tokyo was the most brutal. Awake all night, asleep for the meetings!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Ms Davidson’s personal net approval is now at 25 points, up from 21 in the last Times poll three months ago. Her overall net positive rating is more than double Ms Sturgeon’s 11 points.

    Support for the Conservatives is up in both the constituency vote and the regional vote, from 21 per cent in both in August, to 25 per cent and 24 per cent. Support for the SNP, meanwhile, has dropped from 52 per cent to 48 per cent in the constituency vote and 45 per cent to 39 per cent in the regional vote.

    And a very happy St Andrew's Day to one and all !
    A cause that can unite Remain and Leave Tories :D
    It seems to have required the SNP one-party state to detoxify the Tories.

    *hides behind turnip-proof flame door....*
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,696

    Greetings from Hong Kong. Judging by the weather reports from the UK it looks like a good time to be away doing our bit for Brexit Britain. Off to Shanghai on Saturday, where we have a big event taking place at the Ritz Carlton from Sunday to Tuesday. The lag is cruel!

    Have a good time and get some Peking duck!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Judging by the weather reports from the UK it looks like a good time to be away

    @ThomasPilchard: So cold out today - I even saw a socialist with his hands in his own pockets
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005
    Scott_P said:

    Ms Davidson’s personal net approval is now at 25 points, up from 21 in the last Times poll three months ago. Her overall net positive rating is more than double Ms Sturgeon’s 11 points.

    Support for the Conservatives is up in both the constituency vote and the regional vote, from 21 per cent in both in August, to 25 per cent and 24 per cent. Support for the SNP, meanwhile, has dropped from 52 per cent to 48 per cent in the constituency vote and 45 per cent to 39 per cent in the regional vote.

    And a very happy St Andrew's Day to one and all !
    And a Happy Zacmas Eve too!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,755

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Ms Davidson’s personal net approval is now at 25 points, up from 21 in the last Times poll three months ago. Her overall net positive rating is more than double Ms Sturgeon’s 11 points.

    Support for the Conservatives is up in both the constituency vote and the regional vote, from 21 per cent in both in August, to 25 per cent and 24 per cent. Support for the SNP, meanwhile, has dropped from 52 per cent to 48 per cent in the constituency vote and 45 per cent to 39 per cent in the regional vote.

    And a very happy St Andrew's Day to one and all !
    A cause that can unite Remain and Leave Tories :D
    It seems to have required the SNP one-party state to detoxify the Tories.

    *hides behind turnip-proof flame door....*
    It required the black hole that is Scottish Labour. It is a lesson that Labour seriously need to consider in England. If they don't fulfil the role of an Opposition ultimately someone else will. It is the way of these things.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,696

    Greetings from Hong Kong. Judging by the weather reports from the UK it looks like a good time to be away doing our bit for Brexit Britain. Off to Shanghai on Saturday, where we have a big event taking place at the Ritz Carlton from Sunday to Tuesday. The lag is cruel!

    Good luck in flying the flag.

    Yep, I always found that part of the world was vicious for the lag. Tokyo was the most brutal. Awake all night, asleep for the meetings!
    Tokyo is bearable if you get the right flight and stay up all night before flying so you get 7-8h on the plane. I used to do it a lot and worked out a pattern which left me feeling reasonable after arriving.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,755
    Scott_P said:

    Judging by the weather reports from the UK it looks like a good time to be away

    @ThomasPilchard: So cold out today - I even saw a socialist with his hands in his own pockets
    LOL, very droll.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005
    I am sat in Heathrow T5. Seems fitting, the day before Richmond.

    Not in the Business Lounge and not about to fly Business Class. However, I have just spotted a Wacko Jacko look-alike, so everything is good.

    I agree that the true comparisn isn't Labour v Con but Labour plus fellow travellers v Con. With Labour and Con on an equal vote share, who forms the government?
  • The SNP has been accused of barely lifting a finger to try and prevent the Brexit vote after it emerged the party spent less than a well-known pub chain on its EU referendum campaign.

    Official figures released by the Electoral Commission showed the Nationalists spent just £90,830 fighting to keep the UK in the EU despite their upper limit being £700,000 and their buoyant finances following a surge in party members.

    This was less than the £98,597 they spent unsuccessfully fighting the Glenrothes by-election for Westminster in 2008 and the £94,585 spent by pub chain JD Wetherspoon campaigning for Leave.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/29/snp-accused-barely-trying-eu-referendum-outspent-wetherspoon
  • Talking of the freezing weather I have an entomological question that arose on the train in this morning: Where do flies and insects go in winter or how do they survive the frost? For the fly species to survive in the UK they must be alive in some part of their lifecycle and physically somewhere. Does anyone know how flies re-emerge in spring and where from?
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    Ms Davidson’s personal net approval is now at 25 points, up from 21 in the last Times poll three months ago. Her overall net positive rating is more than double Ms Sturgeon’s 11 points.

    Support for the Conservatives is up in both the constituency vote and the regional vote, from 21 per cent in both in August, to 25 per cent and 24 per cent. Support for the SNP, meanwhile, has dropped from 52 per cent to 48 per cent in the constituency vote and 45 per cent to 39 per cent in the regional vote.

    Labour, meanwhile, is trailing both parties — and Kezia Dugdale is far less popular than her rival leaders. Her net approval rating is negative 21, while her party has dropped a point to 15 per cent in the constituency vote and a point in the regional vote to 14 per cent.

    This would translate into seats of

    SNP 63 (nc)

    Con 32 (+1)

    Lab 17 (-7)

    Greens 12 (+6)

    LD 5 (nc)

    The Green surge and lack of SNP decline gives the separatists a parliamentary majority however. Not good.

    As painful as it may seem, Labour need to start doing better in the constituencies that the Tories would never win to make sure the union stays secure.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Ms Davidson’s personal net approval is now at 25 points, up from 21 in the last Times poll three months ago. Her overall net positive rating is more than double Ms Sturgeon’s 11 points.

    Support for the Conservatives is up in both the constituency vote and the regional vote, from 21 per cent in both in August, to 25 per cent and 24 per cent. Support for the SNP, meanwhile, has dropped from 52 per cent to 48 per cent in the constituency vote and 45 per cent to 39 per cent in the regional vote.

    And a very happy St Andrew's Day to one and all !
    A cause that can unite Remain and Leave Tories :D
    It seems to have required the SNP one-party state to detoxify the Tories.

    *hides behind turnip-proof flame door....*
    Apart from the formidable Ruth Davidson is there any star though? Always risky to have all the eggs in one basket.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,275
    felix said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Things can unwind.

    I'm reminded that ahead of GE 2015 it was said the Tories needed a lead of around 11% to get a majority

    I think this is assuming the SNP continue to win basically all of Scotland.
    if they don't they'll be losing seats to the Conservatives not Labour!
    LOL
  • Hmmm

    @nicktolhurst: Reported today that British Ambassador to Brussels has complained about "having to explain to David Davis what a Customs Union is" #Brexit‬
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,275
    DavidL said:

    Given that the SNP (and SDLP and PC and Green) will caucus with Labour only and not the Tories if we put them in a red rainbow column what lead would the assorted left need to win?

    I think that is a solid point. A major factor in this very high lead for Labour before they get a majority is the catastrophe they have suffered in Scotland where 50 previously very safe seats have all gone massively reducing the efficiency of their vote overall. But those seats have gone to the SNP and they are very unlikely to support a tory government, especially one committed to Brexit so the efficiency comes back again indirectly.

    In contrast according to the ICM poll yesterday the Tories are at the giddy heights of 30% in Scotland. Given the hegemony of the SNP this actually reduces the efficiency of their vote because that 30% would win them less than 5 seats resulting in over 1m wasted votes.
    David, don't tell me even you are getting infected with "surge" fever. Get help.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    Hmmm

    @nicktolhurst: Reported today that British Ambassador to Brussels has complained about "having to explain to David Davis what a Customs Union is" #Brexit‬

    Slightly tragic watching the Brexiteers voyage of self discovery.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,275
    Pulpstar said:

    The Times/YouGov - Scotland poll

    Support for Scottish independence has slumped below the 45 per cent achieved by Yes campaigners in the referendum and now stands at its lowest point since September 2014, according to a new poll for The Times.

    The research comes at the end of the SNP’s national survey, in which Nicola Sturgeon pledged to have her party communicate with two million Scots to determine the mood of the nation and work out how to convert “no” voters to her cause.

    Although the Nationalists are not publishing the results of the survey — which concludes today, on St Andrew’s Day — YouGov now puts support for separation at just 44 per cent, while backing for the Union is at 56 per cent.

    It also reveals that only 31 per cent of Scots want the Scottish government to campaign for independence in the next two years. Fifty-six per cent think it should not, while the rest do not know. Even among those who voted “yes” in 2014, only 60 per cent want ministers to campaign for separation in that time-scale, while the figure among “no” voters is only 9 per cent.

    John Curtice, Scotland’s leading polling expert, said the Times data was the first poll to suggest that the “yes” vote has fallen below the level of September 18, 2014.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/support-for-independence-sinks-0j2bc7jxc

    The last paragraph is a straight fact that in the reader's mind gives the poll more 'meaning' than might otherwise be attached. It could be a genuine dip for Scottish independence or just noise - Prof Curtice has not opined on that.
    Just mince as usual by The unionist mouthpiece
  • JonathanD said:

    Hmmm

    @nicktolhurst: Reported today that British Ambassador to Brussels has complained about "having to explain to David Davis what a Customs Union is" #Brexit‬

    Slightly tragic watching the Brexiteers voyage of self discovery.
    At least Boris had come up with an idea we can all support.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/803723462653132800
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,275

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Ms Davidson’s personal net approval is now at 25 points, up from 21 in the last Times poll three months ago. Her overall net positive rating is more than double Ms Sturgeon’s 11 points.

    Support for the Conservatives is up in both the constituency vote and the regional vote, from 21 per cent in both in August, to 25 per cent and 24 per cent. Support for the SNP, meanwhile, has dropped from 52 per cent to 48 per cent in the constituency vote and 45 per cent to 39 per cent in the regional vote.

    And a very happy St Andrew's Day to one and all !
    A cause that can unite Remain and Leave Tories :D
    It seems to have required the SNP one-party state to detoxify the Tories.

    *hides behind turnip-proof flame door....*
    Apart from the formidable Ruth Davidson is there any star though? Always risky to have all the eggs in one basket.
    Especially a comedy basket , the laughs will drop off for sure
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,275

    The SNP has been accused of barely lifting a finger to try and prevent the Brexit vote after it emerged the party spent less than a well-known pub chain on its EU referendum campaign.

    Official figures released by the Electoral Commission showed the Nationalists spent just £90,830 fighting to keep the UK in the EU despite their upper limit being £700,000 and their buoyant finances following a surge in party members.

    This was less than the £98,597 they spent unsuccessfully fighting the Glenrothes by-election for Westminster in 2008 and the £94,585 spent by pub chain JD Wetherspoon campaigning for Leave.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/29/snp-accused-barely-trying-eu-referendum-outspent-wetherspoon

    How desperate can the unionist propaganda organs become
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    JonathanD said:

    Hmmm

    @nicktolhurst: Reported today that British Ambassador to Brussels has complained about "having to explain to David Davis what a Customs Union is" #Brexit‬

    Slightly tragic watching the Brexiteers voyage of self discovery.
    At least Boris had come up with an idea we can all support.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/803723462653132800
    Clearly he is trying to get chucked out of cabinet, to dodge the Brexit train wreck!

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    JonathanD said:

    Hmmm

    @nicktolhurst: Reported today that British Ambassador to Brussels has complained about "having to explain to David Davis what a Customs Union is" #Brexit‬

    Slightly tragic watching the Brexiteers voyage of self discovery.
    Remain moaner doesn't like brexiteer end of story.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Ms Davidson’s personal net approval is now at 25 points, up from 21 in the last Times poll three months ago. Her overall net positive rating is more than double Ms Sturgeon’s 11 points.

    Support for the Conservatives is up in both the constituency vote and the regional vote, from 21 per cent in both in August, to 25 per cent and 24 per cent. Support for the SNP, meanwhile, has dropped from 52 per cent to 48 per cent in the constituency vote and 45 per cent to 39 per cent in the regional vote.

    And a very happy St Andrew's Day to one and all !
    A cause that can unite Remain and Leave Tories :D
    It seems to have required the SNP one-party state to detoxify the Tories.

    *hides behind turnip-proof flame door....*
    Apart from the formidable Ruth Davidson is there any star though? Always risky to have all the eggs in one basket.
    Especially a comedy basket , the laughs will drop off for sure
    Yes malc s hine falling of the SNP, a couple of Ge down the line and you'll be moaning about how unfair it all is..
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Is the Scottish party leaders question " good job" or " personal approval"?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,751
    edited November 2016
    Mr. Eagles, it takes a special sort of person to blame a victim of sexual abuse for sexual abuse occurring.

    Edited extra bit: alleged victim* [whilst I suspect they're all telling the truth, accusations are not proof of guilt, though the accused individual here has previously been found guilty of related offences].
  • Hmmm

    @nicktolhurst: Reported today that British Ambassador to Brussels has complained about "having to explain to David Davis what a Customs Union is" #Brexit‬

    https://twitter.com/Danopedia/status/800349286332563456
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    No talk of the Richmond by election this morning.
    Was there yesterday. Only thing that will stop Zac tomorrow is turnout. Below 50% and he may struggle.
  • Alistair said:

    Is the Scottish party leaders question " good job" or " personal approval"?

    Not seen the tables yet but in the past they've asked

    Do you think Nicola Sturgeon/Ruth Davidson is doing well/badly in their job as First Minister/Leader Scottish Tories
  • Hmmm

    @nicktolhurst: Reported today that British Ambassador to Brussels has complained about "having to explain to David Davis what a Customs Union is" #Brexit‬

    https://twitter.com/Danopedia/status/800349286332563456
    Brexiteers are such snowflakes, they need their safe spaces
  • timmo said:

    No talk of the Richmond by election this morning.
    Was there yesterday. Only thing that will stop Zac tomorrow is turnout. Below 50% and he may struggle.

    Morning all,

    Yes, there was some debate yesterday evening. iiirc someone said they had been told by a LibDem that they were 10 points behind. On the other hand Zac looked a bit downhearted on Ch4 news last night.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Is the Scottish party leaders question " good job" or " personal approval"?

    Not seen the tables yet but in the past they've asked

    Do you think Nicola Sturgeon/Ruth Davidson is doing well/badly in their job as First Minister/Leader Scottish Tories
    Coola boola, Ruth does well at "good job" and gets negative satisfaction on "personal approval", which matches how I would answer the questions. I can appreciate someone I don't like doing a good job.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The problem with a conservative led Better Together 2 is that the people still voting Lab have a visceral hatred of the Tories.

    Lab calling a big percentage of their voters Nazis didn't work out well for them even though it got No over the line. The Cons calling non Cons Nazis surely isn't going g to go over well with non Con voters in general.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited November 2016
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Hmmm

    @nicktolhurst: Reported today that British Ambassador to Brussels has complained about "having to explain to David Davis what a Customs Union is" #Brexit‬

    Reported where?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Malky seems even grumpier than usual on this St Andrew's Day.

    It's supposed to be joyous. And civic !
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Alistair said:

    The problem with a conservative led Better Together 2

    No need any time soon...

    https://twitter.com/neiledwardlovat/status/803878024827535360
  • Scott_P said:

    Alistair said:

    The problem with a conservative led Better Together 2

    No need any time soon...

    https://twitter.com/neiledwardlovat/status/803878024827535360
    this is the worst graph ever
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited November 2016
    Scott_P said:

    Malky seems even grumpier than usual on this St Andrew's Day.

    It's supposed to be joyous. And civic !

    That's because Sindy is an even more stupid idea now than it ever was. We've passed peak Sindy and are on the downslope. That's gonna hurt. We get handbagged and called numpties etc but the core issues of currency, lender of last resort, massive intra-UK deficit, England as key trade partner, etc, etc have not and will not go away however much you wish them to. And there aren't any good answers. More and more Scots are looking at the idea and concluding 'nah'.
  • There are two, and only two, kinds of people in Britain (or, at least, England) to-day: Tories, and traitors.

    Where does this leave UKIP? F*cked, unless it starts campaigning to restore capital and corporal punishment.
  • malcolmg said:

    The SNP has been accused of barely lifting a finger to try and prevent the Brexit vote after it emerged the party spent less than a well-known pub chain on its EU referendum campaign.

    Official figures released by the Electoral Commission showed the Nationalists spent just £90,830 fighting to keep the UK in the EU despite their upper limit being £700,000 and their buoyant finances following a surge in party members.

    This was less than the £98,597 they spent unsuccessfully fighting the Glenrothes by-election for Westminster in 2008 and the £94,585 spent by pub chain JD Wetherspoon campaigning for Leave.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/29/snp-accused-barely-trying-eu-referendum-outspent-wetherspoon

    How desperate can the unionist propaganda organs become
    SNP outspent by a Pub Chain on a question of 'fundamental constitutional importance' lol....

    Oh well, at least the SNP got the trains to run on time......
  • DavidL said:

    I vividly recall me delivering Scottish Labour leaflets and even, god help me, wearing Labour badges at events where they were campaigning for the Union.

    Golly, after all that squawking over Labour for Independence being an SNP front!
    DavidL said:

    There is no doubt that a new Better Together would be led by Ruth

    I suppose even her supporters know by now that TRuthy saying something is precisely zero guarantee of it being the actualité.

    'Ruth Davidson rules out fronting No campaign in future independence referendum
    Ruth Davidson has ruled herself out of leading the No campaign in any future referendum on Scottish independence.'

    http://tinyurl.com/jbv634t
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Losing access to the single market will cost British motor manufacturers and motorists £4.5 billion a year, the head of the UK automotive trade has warned.

    Production of the latest Land Rover model is to be switched to Slovakia and the electric Jaguar I-Pace will be made in Austria. The new Land Rover Discovery launched at the Paris motor show two months ago is to go into production next year in Solihull.

    However, production will switch to Slovakia when Jaguar Land Rover’s new plant is completed in 2018.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/dont-mess-up-brexit-car-trade-warns-t7bfcbmhs
  • Alistair said:

    The problem with a conservative led Better Together 2 is that the people still voting Lab have a visceral hatred of the Tories.

    Lab calling a big percentage of their voters Nazis didn't work out well for them even though it got No over the line. The Cons calling non Cons Nazis surely isn't going g to go over well with non Con voters in general.

    Wouldn't it be better if campaigners simply stated the positive advantages of their proposals instead of branding their opponents as a basket of nazis and waiting for the inevitable avalanche of votes to roll in?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Patrick said:

    That's because Sindy is an even more stupid idea now than it ever was. We've passed peak Sindy and are on the downslope. That's gonna hurt. We get handbagged and called numpties etc but the core issues of currency, lender of last resort, massive intra-UK deficit, England as key trade partner, etc, etc have not and will not go away however much you wish them to. And there aren't any good answers. More and more Scots are looking at the idea and concluding 'nah'.

    The same is true of Brexit, but it seems the Zoomers are further along the path of self awareness than the Brexiteers...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Wouldn't it be better if campaigners simply stated the positive advantages of their proposals

    Like this?

    https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/747000584226607104/photo/1
  • malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Given that the SNP (and SDLP and PC and Green) will caucus with Labour only and not the Tories if we put them in a red rainbow column what lead would the assorted left need to win?

    I think that is a solid point. A major factor in this very high lead for Labour before they get a majority is the catastrophe they have suffered in Scotland where 50 previously very safe seats have all gone massively reducing the efficiency of their vote overall. But those seats have gone to the SNP and they are very unlikely to support a tory government, especially one committed to Brexit so the efficiency comes back again indirectly.

    In contrast according to the ICM poll yesterday the Tories are at the giddy heights of 30% in Scotland. Given the hegemony of the SNP this actually reduces the efficiency of their vote because that 30% would win them less than 5 seats resulting in over 1m wasted votes.
    David, don't tell me even you are getting infected with "surge" fever. Get help.
    To be precise, Scottish sub sample surge fever.
  • Scott_P said:

    Patrick said:

    That's because Sindy is an even more stupid idea now than it ever was. We've passed peak Sindy and are on the downslope. That's gonna hurt. We get handbagged and called numpties etc but the core issues of currency, lender of last resort, massive intra-UK deficit, England as key trade partner, etc, etc have not and will not go away however much you wish them to. And there aren't any good answers. More and more Scots are looking at the idea and concluding 'nah'.

    The same is true of Brexit, but it seems the Zoomers are further along the path of self awareness than the Brexiteers...
    The same is categorically not true of Brexit. Scotland is not a financially viable entity (at least not as a socialist utopia - they'd need to live 100% within their means). The UK most definitely is viable.
    For the UK the core issue is democracy and identity. If we remain we'll be controlled by a non-British European superstate. An undemocratic superstate. Every time a remoaner comes here bleating about money and economic loss I'm left wondering if they just don't care to be able to vote for a different government or a different set of policies.
  • Scott_P said:

    Losing access to the single market will cost British motor manufacturers and motorists £4.5 billion a year, the head of the UK automotive trade has warned.

    Production of the latest Land Rover model is to be switched to Slovakia and the electric Jaguar I-Pace will be made in Austria. The new Land Rover Discovery launched at the Paris motor show two months ago is to go into production next year in Solihull.

    However, production will switch to Slovakia when Jaguar Land Rover’s new plant is completed in 2018.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/dont-mess-up-brexit-car-trade-warns-t7bfcbmhs

    JLR's Slovakia plant was in the pipeline long before the referendum. That's the logic of the four freedoms. You either get Slovakians flying to Solihull or capital flying to Slovakia.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    To be precise, Scottish sub sample surge fever.

    https://twitter.com/jamieross7/status/803899282944356352
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ScottyNational: St. Andrews Day:In memory of St. Andrew, Indy supporters to spend day getting cross on Twitter. And blaming Scot Labour for his crucifixion

    Clearly not just Twitter...
  • Lefties? Slay them! Slaughter! Blood on the streets!

    That's what most of you want, but each and every last one of you is too chickensh*t to say so.

  • Holyrood VI (vs Aug)
    SNP; 48 (-4)
    Con: 25 (+4)
    Lab: 16 (-1)

    Regional List:
    SNP: 39 (-6)
    Con; 24 (+3)
    Lab; 14 (-1)
    Green: 11 (+2)

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ditypa75v5/TimesScotlandResults_161129_W.pdf
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited November 2016

    Scott_P said:

    Alistair said:

    The problem with a conservative led Better Together 2

    No need any time soon...

    https://twitter.com/neiledwardlovat/status/803878024827535360
    this is the worst graph ever
    Agreed. By simply looking at the number of datapoints above and below the lines, it is clear that the lines don't describe the data.

    It looks as though the fit has been done by requiring both lines to pass through (Oct 14, 50 per cent) for some obscure reason.

    Perhaps to extract a "trend" where there appears to be little evidence for one.

    Might have known ScottP would reproduce a graph without engaging any critical faculties!
  • Doing well/badly - net (vs Aug)

    Sturgeon: +11 (-9)
    Davidson: +25 (+4)
    Dugdale: -21 (-4)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    It looks as though the fit has been done by requiring both lines to pass through (Oct 14, 50 per cent) for some obscure reason.

    Maybe if you engaged your critical faculties you could divine the reason?

    Or not...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,696
    edited November 2016
    Wow, marginally in favour of not holding a second EUref in Scotland. Surprised by that given how different the result in Scotland was to the national result.

    Also just 68% of SNP supporters favour the government campaigning for a SIndyref2. There is a lot of scope for Labour and the Tories to pick up soft "Yes" voters in the coming years if Nicola tries to keep both sides of her coalition together and forgets to run the country.

    Even split on Scotland remaining in the EU if the rest of the UK leaves. Given the direction of travel lately I think this will shift so that a majority will support the national decision despite Scotland voting differently to the national result. On that question 25% of Yes supporters aren't interested in staying in the EU which doesn't bode well for the SNP if Nicola doesn't tone down the EUphile rhetoric. 30% of the Westminster vote as well.
  • And whether or not you would support it, if Scotland is still part of the UK do you think it would be relalistically possible for Scotland to remain part of the EU after the rest of the UK leaves?

    Net Possible: -40
    SNP: -5
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005

    Holyrood VI (vs Aug)
    SNP; 48 (-4)
    Con: 25 (+4)
    Lab: 16 (-1)

    Regional List:
    SNP: 39 (-6)
    Con; 24 (+3)
    Lab; 14 (-1)
    Green: 11 (+2)

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ditypa75v5/TimesScotlandResults_161129_W.pdf

    Kez worse than Jez?
  • Scott_P said:

    To be precise, Scottish sub sample surge fever.

    https://twitter.com/jamieross7/status/803899282944356352
    Yeah, marvellous point if it hadn't been the ICM WM voting subsample that was being referred to.

    Anyway, you never got back to me last time after I set you a little quiz. It really is very easy to answer.

    Who wrote this on 25/06/16?

    '4. Next PM. It's May for me, anyone but Boris.

    5. Corbyn should go too. A total tool. About as effective as a leader and potential PM as a fart in a hurricane.

    6. Lastly and this will shock many but Scotland should now opt for independence. There I said it. The will of the Scottish people on the EU, a matter of the most crucial significance for the future, was clear. Hopefully it will be an amicable uncoupling. I would vote for YES in SINDY2, if still around.

    SINDY2 should take place within 18 months and a YES vote take effect on the date of BREXIT two years after Article 50 is enabled or before 2020 whichever is sooner.'

    And who replied:

    'Nice to see you ****.

    I agree on all 3 points.'
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005

    Doing well/badly - net (vs Aug)

    Sturgeon: +11 (-9)
    Davidson: +25 (+4)
    Dugdale: -21 (-4)

    Kez better than Jez!
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Scott_P said:

    It looks as though the fit has been done by requiring both lines to pass through (Oct 14, 50 per cent) for some obscure reason.

    Maybe if you engaged your critical faculties you could divine the reason?

    Or not...
    Do explain how the fitting was done, O Master of Statistics.

    Those datapoints should carry error bars, say of a few per cent. If there is a trend in that data, it is pretty marginal.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Is the Scottish party leaders question " good job" or " personal approval"?

    Not seen the tables yet but in the past they've asked

    Do you think Nicola Sturgeon/Ruth Davidson is doing well/badly in their job as First Minister/Leader Scottish Tories
    Coola boola, Ruth does well at "good job" and gets negative satisfaction on "personal approval", which matches how I would answer the questions. I can appreciate someone I don't like doing a good job.
    Is that:

    Someone I don't like / doing a good job

    Or

    Someone / I don't like doing a good job

    ?
  • MaxPB said:

    if Nicola tries to keep both sides of her coalition together and forgets to run the country.

    Nicola's been busy getting the trains to run on time/at all holding a 'National Conversation' with 2 million Scots

    Over the last three months the SNP have been carrying out a "National Conversation" survey on independence. Have you been approached to take part in the "National Conversation" survey?

    Yes: 13 (that's about 500,000, a tad shy of 2,000,000)
    No: 82

  • Where Scotland leads England will inevitably follow

    TMay sees sharp YouGov ratings drop in Scotland. To the doing job well/badly question she's moved from net PLUS 13% in Aug to MINUS 5% now
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,696
    On those YouGov figures I don't see a path to Sindy. Not within the next 10 years at least. I do hope we move to a federal structure in the UK though with much more autonomy for the four home nations, the current structure where Scotland has some say in a few matters and a pretty useless parliament, Wales and NI have even less say and completely pointless assemblies and England having no say over its own affairs is completely unsustainable. Every home nation should have the same say over its domestic affairs.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005
    "New research from Arcadis has found that nearly 215,000 workers could disappear from housebuilding and infrastructure if the UK pursues a ‘hard’ Brexit.
    However, the consultant warned that even a ‘soft’ Brexit could see the industry miss out on 135,000 workers at a time when the skills gap is acute."

    Or, put another way, big pay rises on the cards for British bricklayers, plasterers, etc.
  • Lefties? Slay them! Slaughter! Blood on the streets!

    That's what most of you want, but each and every last one of you is too chickensh*t to say so.

    You need help.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Do explain how the fitting was done, O Master of Statistics.

    What happened in 2014 that might be relevant?

    And why might 50% be an important number?

    Take your time...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,696
    edited November 2016
    More thoughts on that 25% of Yes voters who don't support staying in the EU if the rest of the UK leaves. It seems to me that there is a rather large minority of Yes voters (and SNP voters) who want Scotland to be properly independent, outside of the Union and the EU. I think one of the reasons Sindy is losing favour is because Sturgeon is presenting Sindy as a choice between the UK and EU, to that 25% of Yes voters, neither option is palatable. I think if the UK government were to deliver on a more federalised structure for the UK with more powers going to all of the home nations then that 25% who don't support joining the EU could be convinced to vote No in any Sindyref.

    I also don't see how Sturgeon would win any Sindyref based on the idea of Scotland leaving the UK only to join the EU. For Unionists there is no higher cause than the union, the EU ranks way down the list of priorities, but for separatists proposing to leave one union in which Scotland has some power and fairly strong representation to join one in which they wouldn't even be in the Championship let alone the Premier League seems like a losing idea. Those No voters who voted to remain will be much easier to retain than the Yes voters who voted to Leave, IMO.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    "New research from Arcadis has found that nearly 215,000 workers could disappear from housebuilding and infrastructure if the UK pursues a ‘hard’ Brexit.
    However, the consultant warned that even a ‘soft’ Brexit could see the industry miss out on 135,000 workers at a time when the skills gap is acute."

    Or, put another way, big pay rises on the cards for British bricklayers, plasterers, etc.

    Or to put it another way the price of new houses and renovation goes up, or there become delays in work.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,275
    Scott_P said:

    Malky seems even grumpier than usual on this St Andrew's Day.

    It's supposed to be joyous. And civic !

    Scott, you out waving your union jack
  • "New research from Arcadis has found that nearly 215,000 workers could disappear from housebuilding and infrastructure if the UK pursues a ‘hard’ Brexit.
    However, the consultant warned that even a ‘soft’ Brexit could see the industry miss out on 135,000 workers at a time when the skills gap is acute."

    Or, put another way, big pay rises on the cards for British bricklayers, plasterers, etc.

    The construction industry is heavily reliant on unskilled or semi-skilled workers from abroad and any restrictions on this could send costs rising and stall or cancel new projects stalled.

    Arcadis believes to mitigate this impending crisis the industry rapidly needs to modernise and accelerate its use of technology and off-site manufacturing.


    What? Improve productivity?

    No! No! No! - we should carry on relying on imported unskilled labour subsidised through the benefits system.....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,696

    "New research from Arcadis has found that nearly 215,000 workers could disappear from housebuilding and infrastructure if the UK pursues a ‘hard’ Brexit.
    However, the consultant warned that even a ‘soft’ Brexit could see the industry miss out on 135,000 workers at a time when the skills gap is acute."

    Or, put another way, big pay rises on the cards for British bricklayers, plasterers, etc.

    Hopefully enough of a payrise to attract young people into apprenticeships instead of being on the dole.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,275

    malcolmg said:

    The SNP has been accused of barely lifting a finger to try and prevent the Brexit vote after it emerged the party spent less than a well-known pub chain on its EU referendum campaign.

    Official figures released by the Electoral Commission showed the Nationalists spent just £90,830 fighting to keep the UK in the EU despite their upper limit being £700,000 and their buoyant finances following a surge in party members.

    This was less than the £98,597 they spent unsuccessfully fighting the Glenrothes by-election for Westminster in 2008 and the £94,585 spent by pub chain JD Wetherspoon campaigning for Leave.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/29/snp-accused-barely-trying-eu-referendum-outspent-wetherspoon

    How desperate can the unionist propaganda organs become
    SNP outspent by a Pub Chain on a question of 'fundamental constitutional importance' lol....

    Oh well, at least the SNP got the trains to run on time......
    Hard for them to run London based Network rail and trains are running at best they have in 40 years , just goes to show that setting high targets rather than none improves servicves.
  • malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    Malky seems even grumpier than usual on this St Andrew's Day.

    It's supposed to be joyous. And civic !

    Scott, you out waving your union jack
    Oh there you are!

    Worried you might be stuck on a train......
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,275
    MaxPB said:

    More thoughts on that 25% of Yes voters who don't support staying in the EU if the rest of the UK leaves. It seems to me that there is a rather large minority of Yes voters (and SNP voters) who want Scotland to be properly independent, outside of the Union and the EU. I think one of the reasons Sindy is losing favour is because Sturgeon is presenting Sindy as a choice between the UK and EU, to that 25% of Yes voters, neither option is palatable. I think if the UK government were to deliver on a more federalised structure for the UK with more powers going to all of the home nations then that 25% who don't support joining the EU could be convinced to vote No in any Sindyref.

    I also don't see how Sturgeon would win any Sindyref based on the idea of Scotland leaving the UK only to join the EU. For Unionists there is no higher cause than the union, the EU ranks way down the list of priorities, but for separatists proposing to leave one union in which Scotland has some power and fairly strong representation to join one in which they wouldn't even be in the Championship let alone the Premier League seems like a losing idea. Those No voters who voted to remain will be much easier to retain than the Yes voters who voted to Leave, IMO.

    Your knowledge of Scotland and Scottish matters remains at its recent peak of cretinous Max.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited November 2016
    Scott_P said:

    Do explain how the fitting was done, O Master of Statistics.

    What happened in 2014 that might be relevant?

    And why might 50% be an important number?

    Take your time...
    My mistake. Sorry.

    I should have realised at outset that there is no point in trying to explain elementary statistics to the man who failed the Monty Hall problem.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Interesting that YouGov managed to have a pretty much perfectly unweighted sample of Yes/No voters. Panelbase consistently have more Yes than No voters in the unweighted sample and so have to weigh heavily.

    Makes me trust YouGov more on this.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,365
    Scott_P said:

    Losing access to the single market will cost British motor manufacturers and motorists £4.5 billion a year, the head of the UK automotive trade has warned.

    Production of the latest Land Rover model is to be switched to Slovakia and the electric Jaguar I-Pace will be made in Austria. The new Land Rover Discovery launched at the Paris motor show two months ago is to go into production next year in Solihull.

    However, production will switch to Slovakia when Jaguar Land Rover’s new plant is completed in 2018.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/dont-mess-up-brexit-car-trade-warns-t7bfcbmhs

    bollocks

    the LR Slovakia decision was taken in 2015. It takes 3-4 yrs to get a factory up and running at full production.

    LR are also on the record this week as telling HMG to improve infrastructure and it will create 10k jobs.

    Quoting lazy journos fed by PR execs is just stupid
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,401

    There are two, and only two, kinds of people in Britain (or, at least, England) to-day: Tories, and traitors.

    Where does this leave UKIP? F*cked, unless it starts campaigning to restore capital and corporal punishment.

    Be careful what you wish for!
  • Mr. G, you should celebrate St. Andrew's Day by buying yourself Kingdom Asunder ;)
  • NEW THREAD

  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    This is rather perfect

    http://order-order.com/2016/11/30/media-guardians-sneer-city-backfires/

    "...It’s an odd thing to get upset about since City AM’s initiative is for charity. The money raised is being given to Maggie’s cancer centres, which offer support to cancer victims. Even odder that Greenslade would attack newspapers charging for work experience, given just last year the Guardian charged £600 for a summer work experience placement. The difference? City AM are giving the money to charity, the Guardian kept the cash for themselves…
This discussion has been closed.