politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On top of LAB polling woes first analysis of the new boundarie

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On top of LAB polling woes first analysis of the new boundaries suggests LAB will need vote lead of 13.5% to get a majority

YouGov’s Anthony Wells who runs UK Polling Report had produced his first analysis of the planned new boundary changes and the outcome is excellent for the Tories and terrible for Labour.

Read the full story here

foxinsoxuk

first past the post. . .

still waiting for Zac

MTimT

Secundo

MTimT

Where did they get that picture of Corbyn. Hardly dressed the part of the champion of the ordinary working prole.

foxinsoxuk

MTimT said:

Where did they get that picture of Corbyn. Hardly dressed the part of the champion of the ordinary working prole.

Nothing is too good for the workers.

It may be a photoshop. Jezza doesn't have a suit that fits properly.

peter_from_putney

Off Topic
From the BBC's Sports Website, just now:
TUE, 29 NOV 2016 EFL CUP - QUARTER-FINAL
1-1
Mbokani (Dismissed at 89' minutes), Snodgrass (99' minutes)
AET
HT 0-0
FT 0-0
Diamé (98' minutes)
Newcastle United win 1-1 on penalties

Well that's nearly correct, in fact Hull City won 3 - 1 on penalties AET!

Chris_from_Paris

O/T French Election - New poll

Sofres for LCI/RTL/ Le Figaro
http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2016/11/29/35003-20161129ARTFIG00275-presidentielle-2017-fillon-distance-le-fn-hollande-hors-course-selon-notre-sondage.php

This is a first round poll testing a number of scenarios depending on the result of the Socialist primary (scheduled for January) and on the numbers of centrist candidates (Macron alone, Macron +Bayrou, neither)

Scenario Hollande Macron Bayrou:
Fillon 29 Le Pen 23 Macron 15 Mélenchon 12 Hollande 7.5 (!!)
Bayrou 6 Dupont-Aignan 2.5 Jadot 2 Pinel 1 Poutou 1 Arthaud 0.5 Cheminade 0.5

Scenario Hollande Macron, no Bayrou
Fillon 30 Le Pen 24 Macron 17 Mélenchon 13 Hollande 8.5 (!!)
Dupont-Aignan 2.5 Jadot 2 Pinel 1 Poutou 1 Arthaud 0.5 Cheminade 0.5

Scenario Hollande no Bayrou no Macron
Fillon 34 Le Pen 26 Mélenchon 15 Hollande 14 (still fourth)
Dupont-Aignan 3 Jadot 3 Pinel 1 Poutou 1.5 Arthaud 2 Cheminade 0.5

Scenario Valls Macron Bayrou:
Fillon 28 Le Pen 24 Macron 13 Mélenchon 12 Valls 9.5
Bayrou 6 Dupont-Aignan 2 Jadot 2 Arthaud 1.5 Poutou 1 Pinel 0.5 Cheminade 0.5

Scenario Valls Macron not Bayrou
Fillon 29 Le Pen 25 Macron 15 Mélenchon 11.5 Valls 11
Dupont-Aignan 2.5 Jadot 2.5 Arthaud 1.5 Poutou 1 Pinel 0.5 Cheminade 0.5

Scenario Montebourg Macron Bayrou
Fillon 29 Le Pen 24 Macron 16 Mélenchon 12 Montebourg 6 (!!!)
Bayrou 6 Dupont-Aignan 2 Jadot 1.5 Arthaud 1 Poutou 1 Pinel 1 Cheminade 0.5

Scenario Montebourg Macron no Bayrou
Fillon 31 Le Pen 24 Macron 17.5 Mélenchon 12.5 Montebourg 7
Dupont-Aignan 2.5 Jadot 2 Arthaud 1 Poutou 1 Pinel 0.5 Cheminade 0.5

Obviously they did no test scenarios of Valls or Montebourg benefiting from a Macron withdrawal as they appear totally impossible. The scenario where he would do so for Hollande is already extremely unlikely

Chris_from_Paris

The same poll gives Fillon 66 / Le Pen 34 for the second round.

Fillon has established a very good base and is clearly ahead of Le Pen for now. Those polls show that he would benefit marginally from killing off a Bayrou candidacy but that it is not particularly decisive. This is important as it gives Bayrou not much leverage in a negotiaton with Fillon (only the right can credibly offer to dedicate constituencies to Bayrou's party).

This poll also shows the trouble the socialist party is in. None of his three main candidates appear likely to reach even the thrid place, let alone the second round. Ideed the most likle at this stage is that the socialist candidate would start its campaign in fifth place in the polls. Montebourg and Hollande are actually closer to the sixth position.

This extremely poor support could be expected to grow after the primary if the debates and votes go well. However, Hollande is currently plotting to can the primary and ask the others to support him without a vote. This would be extremely controversial and would probably create yet another independent candidacy (probably Montebourg).

Macron and Mélenchon start the campaign with very decent bases. Macron would clearly benefit from Bayrou passing but apparently he would not get all of his support. He is still at least 7 points behind Le Pen for the second round.

Macron not running (very unlikely) would not save the socialists as they would remain in fourth place. The very low level of transfer between the two also show that (unlike the media) the voters do not see Macron as left-wing anymore.

Tissue_Price

Chris, is there any scenario in which the Socialists don't put up a candidate (and endorse Macron, perhaps?). This is utterly humiliating.

Pulpstar

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.127041757

£44 to lay @ 95.0 slightly better than the 1.01 on Hillary popular vote.

Paristonda

Chris_from_Paris said:

The same poll gives Fillon 66 / Le Pen 34 for the second round.

Fillon has established a very good base and is clearly ahead of Le Pen for now. Those polls show that he would benefit marginally from killing off a Bayrou candidacy but that it is not particularly decisive. This is important as it gives Bayrou not much leverage in a negotiaton with Fillon (only the right can credibly offer to dedicate constituencies to Bayrou's party).

This poll also shows the trouble the socialist party is in. None of his three main candidates appear likely to reach even the thrid place, let alone the second round. Ideed the most likle at this stage is that the socialist candidate would start its campaign in fifth place in the polls. Montebourg and Hollande are actually closer to the sixth position.

This extremely poor support could be expected to grow after the primary if the debates and votes go well. However, Hollande is currently plotting to can the primary and ask the others to support him without a vote. This would be extremely controversial and would probably create yet another independent candidacy (probably Montebourg).

Macron and Mélenchon start the campaign with very decent bases. Macron would clearly benefit from Bayrou passing but apparently he would not get all of his support. He is still at least 7 points behind Le Pen for the second round.

Macron not running (very unlikely) would not save the socialists as they would remain in fourth place. The very low level of transfer between the two also show that (unlike the media) the voters do not see Macron as left-wing anymore.

Interesting polls. Seems to me like a big Fillon post-primary bounce there. I expect to see a narrowing of the polls once the socialist primary is decided and the campaigns can truly begin, but we shall see! Perhaps the crucial variable is how important the catholic traditional conservative vote is, and whether it trumps the blue collar vote.

Who do you think will win the Socialist Primary? I'm leaning towards Montebourg and think Hollande will run in it and lose, but by no means sure.

TheScreamingEagles

Things can unwind.

I'm reminded that ahead of GE 2015 it was said the Tories needed a lead of around 11% to get a majority

Paristonda

FPT:

Paristonda said:

Evening all,

http://prospect.org/article/will-marine-le-pen-become-france’s-next-president

This is an interesting article on the French Presidential election, also sceptical about Fillon's chances against Le Pen (as am I). She is in some ways well placed against Fillon, and because of their broad agreement on Islam, it will be difficult to attack her as being 'neo-fascist'. I actually think Islam will therefore end up playing a relatively minor role in the second round, and it will be much more dominated by economic issues and anti-globalisation. Here, Le Pen is more in tune with the average French voter than Fillon. Frexit is the wildcard here, i'm not sure just how ready France is to quit the EU (and before looking at polls, remember the UK polls pre-campaign!). Leaving the Eurozone but remaining in the EU may be a better option politically.

The dynamics will be totally different to 2002 and I think we can discount a rerun of that vote. Fillon is not a harmless chirac-like centrist, he is perceived as a thatcherite ideologue (yes, his economic views are not extreme from our perspective, but they are from a French one. This thatcherite label is not just popular in the British press, but in the French press too). Marine is not personally a 'beyond-the-pale-fascist', but a fairly mainstream politician (despite the recent furore over her Andrew Marr appearance, she is always on TV in France, much like Farage in the UK).

Likewise, I think too much stock is being put in previous FN results.

A) this will be very much Marine 2017, not FN 2017. She is far more popular than her party - look at the 18% she took in round 1 of 2012.

French voters in Calais etc are not stupid, they are well aware that the election next year is their Trump/Brexit moment. They will turn out in higher numbers than they have done so for any regional or parliamentary elections (accordingly, I predict the FN will do poorly at the 2017 legislative elections regardless).

Anyway, i'm not a betting man so DYOR and these are just my views on the election!

(To clarify, I think MLP is a very serious and charismatic politician, more so than Trump and Farage even, BUT I don't subscribe to her views on the EU, or on immigration and islam, so wouldn't vote for her)

Paristonda

On Topic - i'm not dismissing the mountain Corbyn has ahead of him, but these arguments about the system swinging in the tories favour ring a bit hollow with me. Before 2015 the system was supposedly strongly biased against the Tories - simply having efficient vote distribution allowed them to overcome this. Likewise, IF labour were to achieve an unexpectedly efficient vote distribution, these arguments about inherent difficulty for Labour would vanish.

Floater

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/29/german-intelligence-officer-arrested-islamist-plot-raising-fears/

Not to worry, Merkel has a cunning plan.

NoEasyDay

Paristonda said:

FPT:

Paristonda said:

Evening all,

http://prospect.org/article/will-marine-le-pen-become-france’s-next-president

This is an interesting article on the French Presidential election, also sceptical about Fillon's chances against Le Pen (as am I). She is in some ways well placed against Fillon, and because of their broad agreement on Islam, it will be difficult to attack her as being 'neo-fascist'. I actually think Islam will therefore end up playing a relatively minor role in the second round, and it will be much more dominated by economic issues and anti-globalisation. Here, Le Pen is more in tune with the average French voter than Fillon. Frexit is the wildcard here, i'm not sure just how ready France is to quit the EU (and before looking at polls, remember the UK polls pre-campaign!). Leaving the Eurozone but remaining in the EU may be a better option politically.

The dynamics will be totally different to 2002 and I think we can discount a rerun of that vote. Fillon is not a harmless chirac-like centrist, he is perceived as a thatcherite ideologue (yes, his economic views are not extreme from our perspective, but they are from a French one. This thatcherite label is not just popular in the British press, but in the French press too). Marine is not personally a 'beyond-the-pale-fascist', but a fairly mainstream politician (despite the recent furore over her Andrew Marr appearance, she is always on TV in France, much like Farage in the UK).

Likewise, I think too much stock is being put in previous FN results.

A) this will be very much Marine 2017, not FN 2017. She is far more popular than her party - look at the 18% she took in round 1 of 2012.

French voters in Calais etc are not stupid, they are well aware that the election next year is their Trump/Brexit moment. They will turn out in higher numbers than they have done so for any regional or parliamentary elections (accordingly, I predict the FN will do poorly at the 2017 legislative elections regardless).

Anyway, i'm not a betting man so DYOR and these are just my views on the election!

(To clarify, I think MLP is a very serious and charismatic politician, more so than Trump and Farage even, BUT I don't subscribe to her views on the EU, or on immigration and islam, so wouldn't vote for her)

Totally agree.
I wonder if like the uk there is a "feeling disenfrachised" group of folk who are beyond the pollsters. Having spent a lot of time in Paris on the outskirts, I suspect that is the case.

Floater

On topic - so, not "terrible for the tories" then?

CarlottaVance

Floater said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/29/german-intelligence-officer-arrested-islamist-plot-raising-fears/

Not to worry, Merkel has a cunning plan.

I'm sure she's far to smart to be disobliging to the PM with probably the best Intelligence Service in Western Europe......

MarqueeMark

TheScreamingEagles said:

Things can unwind.

I'm reminded that ahead of GE 2015 it was said the Tories needed a lead of around 11% to get a majority

But for Labour to validly make that argument, you would need to see the Tories getting much closer to Labour in Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle, Leeds, Sheffield, inner London, to make the Labour vote more efficient. All the evidence sees to be that the Labour vote is actually strongest - and getting stronger - in these places. They have deserted the battlefield in the marginals. And these marginals are now in what were once safe Labour seats.

CarlottaVance

Floater said:

On topic - so, not "terrible for the tories" then?

Why hasn't Theresa May resigned already? Clearly the country is crying out for George Osborne & the posh boys.....

CarlottaVance

foxinsoxuk said:

MTimT said:

Where did they get that picture of Corbyn. Hardly dressed the part of the champion of the ordinary working prole.

Nothing is too good for the workers.

It may be a photoshop. Jezza doesn't have a suit that fits properly.

No it's legit:

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/you-may-have-thought-jeremy-corbyn-was-humourless-but-his-performance-last-night-proved-us-all-wrong-a7076621.html

peter_from_putney

I see the LibDems have slumped to 7%, down 2%, in the latest Guardian/ICM poll, not that you'll have read much about this in the PB.com headers.
So over 16 months since having been elected as their leader, the uninspiring Mr. Farron is still in two taxi territory.
Consequently, as regards their prospects in Richmond Park ..... absolutely no chance and let's not forget that it's not that long since this was a safe seat for the Yellow Team.

Philip_Thompson

Given that the SNP (and SDLP and PC and Green) will caucus with Labour only and not the Tories if we put them in a red rainbow column what lead would the assorted left need to win?

Paristonda

peter_from_putney said:

I see the LibDems have slumped to 7%, down 2%, in the latest Guardian/ICM poll, not that you'll have read much about this in the PB.com headers.
So over 16 months since having been elected as their leader, the uninspiring Mr. Farron is still in two taxi territory.
Consequently, as regards their prospects in Richmond Park ..... absolutely no chance and let's not forget that it's not that long since this was a safe seat for the Yellow Team.

If the LDs do lose, Farron should consider his position. The LDs have been blessed with a very favourable set of conditions post-2015, but Farron has been distinctly underwhelming.

nunu

Paristonda said:

On Topic - i'm not dismissing the mountain Corbyn has ahead of him, but these arguments about the system swinging in the tories favour ring a bit hollow with me. Before 2015 the system was supposedly strongly biased against the Tories - simply having efficient vote distribution allowed them to overcome this. Likewise, IF labour were to achieve an unexpectedly efficient vote distribution, these arguments about inherent difficulty for Labour would vanish.

exactly. they said the same about the Dems and their apperent advantage in the electoral college which turned out to be bull. Before that they said Bush Jr had an advantage all crap.

If Corbyn builds the right coaltion he won't nedd a 13% Lead, I still remember when they said tories need a 11% lead.....

Philip_Thompson

MTimT said:

Where did they get that picture of Corbyn. Hardly dressed the part of the champion of the ordinary working prole.

Channel 4 comedy show The Last Leg. He appeared as a guest and was dressed like that in the VT.

nunu

MTimT said:

Where did they get that picture of Corbyn. Hardly dressed the part of the champion of the ordinary working prole.

He wore that to Channel 4's The last leg show where he was infamously asked to rate the E.u during the Ref campaign and said 6.5/7 out of 10......

RobD

Talk about vote efficiency

nunu

Paristonda said:

FPT:

Paristonda said:

Evening all,

http://prospect.org/article/will-marine-le-pen-become-france’s-next-president

This is an interesting article on the French Presidential election, also sceptical about Fillon's chances against Le Pen (as am I). She is in some ways well placed against Fillon, and because of their broad agreement on Islam, it will be difficult to attack her as being 'neo-fascist'. I actually think Islam will therefore end up playing a relatively minor role in the second round, and it will be much more dominated by economic issues and anti-globalisation. Here, Le Pen is more in tune with the average French voter than Fillon. Frexit is the wildcard here, i'm not sure just how ready France is to quit the EU (and before looking at polls, remember the UK polls pre-campaign!). Leaving the Eurozone but remaining in the EU may be a better option politically.

The dynamics will be totally different to 2002 and I think we can discount a rerun of that vote. Fillon is not a harmless chirac-like centrist, he is perceived as a thatcherite ideologue (yes, his economic views are not extreme from our perspective, but they are from a French one. This thatcherite label is not just popular in the British press, but in the French press too). Marine is not personally a 'beyond-the-pale-fascist', but a fairly mainstream politician (despite the recent furore over her Andrew Marr appearance, she is always on TV in France, much like Farage in the UK).

Likewise, I think too much stock is being put in previous FN results.

A) this will be very much Marine 2017, not FN 2017. She is far more popular than her party - look at the 18% she took in round 1 of 2012.

French voters in Calais etc are not stupid, they are well aware that the election next year is their Trump/Brexit moment. They will turn out in higher numbers than they have done so for any regional or parliamentary elections (accordingly, I predict the FN will do poorly at the 2017 legislative elections regardless).

Anyway, i'm not a betting man so DYOR and these are just my views on the election!

(To clarify, I think MLP is a very serious and charismatic politician, more so than Trump and Farage even, BUT I don't subscribe to her views on the EU, or on immigration and islam, so wouldn't vote for her)

A very good analysis I would say. She is very charasmatic but as you say not in a joker type of way Trump is in a serious way which even more dangerous to her political enemies. She gives very good answers when I saw her on hard talk. She WILL be in the second round unless the left come to their senses and coalesce. But since the left has no sense they won't. Very smart woman.

nunu

There are no criminal consequences for flag burning, however, because the Supreme Court has twice ruled that flag burning is a type of political expression. That means it is protected from government punishment by the First Amendment, regardless of what Congress or the president thinks.

Legal experts say it's not a close call.

"This is protected speech," said Columbia law professor David Pozen. "The Supreme Court struck down flag burning laws."

RobD

What fraction of the vote do the LDs need? Or is Deep Thought still working on that one?

*innocen face*

RobD

nunu said:

MTimT said:

Where did they get that picture of Corbyn. Hardly dressed the part of the champion of the ordinary working prole.

He wore that to Channel 4's The last leg show where he was infamously asked to rate the E.u during the Ref campaign and said 6.5/7 out of 10......

I think most Brits would say less than five.

Sunil_Prasannan

MTimT said:

Where did they get that picture of Corbyn. Hardly dressed the part of the champion of the ordinary working prole.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1298761/Jeremy-Corbyn-makes-bizarre-entrance-Leg.html

Speedy

Trump getting results:

https://twitter.com/Carrier/status/803764047300722688
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/803766003372990464

Including making Romney look like he is suffering:

https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedNews/status/803776634704695296

dugarbandier

Speedy said:

Trump getting results:

https://twitter.com/Carrier/status/803764047300722688
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/803766003372990464

Including making Romney look like he is suffering:

https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedNews/status/803776634704695296

even his economic policies are national socialist...

RobD

Anyone still think this isn't a huge scam?

https://twitter.com/DrJillStein/status/803640959087050752

Chris_from_Paris

Tissue_Price said:

Chris, is there any scenario in which the Socialists don't put up a candidate (and endorse Macron, perhaps?). This is utterly humiliating.

I don't think so. Most party members and MPs clearly despise Macron so there is zero chance he would receive the official party support.
The most likely is that the winner of the primary runs and tries to get some small candidates to withdraw (such as Pinel or Jadot), hoping that the Macron bubble will burst and they will benefit at some point.

As of today the candidates to the left-wing primary (known officially as the "beautiful popular alliance" primary) are in three main groups:

- the internal opponents to Hollande and Valls in the Parti socialiste:
Benoît Hamon, 49, MP representing the left wing of the socialists, former education minister of Hollande, sacked in 2014
Arnaud Montebourg, 54, former Economy minister (2012-2014). He got 17% in the 2011 primary on an anti-globalization Platform. He backed Hollande and was rewarded by a a ministry before being sacked in 2014.
Gérard Filoche, 71, representing the far-left wing of the Socialists
Marie Noelle Lienemann, 65, Senator and former minister. She has always been a prominenet member of the left-wing.

- représentatives of tiny parties allied to the socialists
Jean-Luc Bennahmias, 62, former member of the Greens and previously close to Bayrou, now allied to Hollande
François de Rugy, 43, MP, left the Greens to support theHollande/Valls governement in 2015.
Several members of the Left-wing Radicals Party (Annick Gurardin, Sidi Hamada-Hamidou)have expressed an interest but their party decide last week that their president Sylvia Pinel would run directly, avoiding the primary.

- President Hollande and PM Valls. Both have expressed their desire to run and some have started to speculate Valls could challenge Hollande. This would imply an immediate dismissal or resignation and the Rumor has been denied several times in the last few days.
Valls seems to try as hard as he can to convince Hollande not to run but Hollande continues to keep his options open. He has actually sent all his last prominent supporters in the media these last few days to eplain that the left could avoid a primary.

My own view at this stage is that:
- the primary will take place
- it will draw much less voters than the right-wing and center primary
- Hollande has no chance to win it
- Valls could beat Montebourg, but it would be very close.

Chris_from_Paris

Paristonda said:

Chris_from_Paris said:

The same poll gives Fillon 66 / Le Pen 34 for the second round.

Fillon has established a very good base and is clearly ahead of Le Pen for now. Those polls show that he would benefit marginally from killing off a Bayrou candidacy but that it is not particularly decisive. This is important as it gives Bayrou not much leverage in a negotiaton with Fillon (only the right can credibly offer to dedicate constituencies to Bayrou's party).

This poll also shows the trouble the socialist party is in. None of his three main candidates appear likely to reach even the thrid place, let alone the second round. Ideed the most likle at this stage is that the socialist candidate would start its campaign in fifth place in the polls. Montebourg and Hollande are actually closer to the sixth position.

This extremely poor support could be expected to grow after the primary if the debates and votes go well. However, Hollande is currently plotting to can the primary and ask the others to support him without a vote. This would be extremely controversial and would probably create yet another independent candidacy (probably Montebourg).

Macron and Mélenchon start the campaign with very decent bases. Macron would clearly benefit from Bayrou passing but apparently he would not get all of his support. He is still at least 7 points behind Le Pen for the second round.

Macron not running (very unlikely) would not save the socialists as they would remain in fourth place. The very low level of transfer between the two also show that (unlike the media) the voters do not see Macron as left-wing anymore.

Interesting polls. Seems to me like a big Fillon post-primary bounce there. I expect to see a narrowing of the polls once the socialist primary is decided and the campaigns can truly begin, but we shall see! Perhaps the crucial variable is how important the catholic traditional conservative vote is, and whether it trumps the blue collar vote.

Who do you think will win the Socialist Primary? I'm leaning towards Montebourg and think Hollande will run in it and lose, but by no means sure.

Beyond the "catholic traditional vote", there is the traditional right-wing vote in general.
Le Pen moving left on the economy will damage her support among small business owners, farmers, and private-sector employees.

Chris_from_Paris

NoEasyDay said:

Paristonda said:

FPT:

Paristonda said:

Evening all,

http://prospect.org/article/will-marine-le-pen-become-france’s-next-president


The dynamics will be totally different to 2002 and I think we can discount a rerun of that vote. Fillon is not a harmless chirac-like centrist, he is perceived as a thatcherite ideologue (yes, his economic views are not extreme from our perspective, but they are from a French one. This thatcherite label is not just popular in the British press, but in the French press too). Marine is not personally a 'beyond-the-pale-fascist', but a fairly mainstream politician (despite the recent furore over her Andrew Marr appearance, she is always on TV in France, much like Farage in the UK).

Likewise, I think too much stock is being put in previous FN results.

A) this will be very much Marine 2017, not FN 2017. She is far more popular than her party - look at the 18% she took in round 1 of 2012.

French voters in Calais etc are not stupid, they are well aware that the election next year is their Trump/Brexit moment. They will turn out in higher numbers than they have done so for any regional or parliamentary elections (accordingly, I predict the FN will do poorly at the 2017 legislative elections regardless).

Anyway, i'm not a betting man so DYOR and these are just my views on the election!

(To clarify, I think MLP is a very serious and charismatic politician, more so than Trump and Farage even, BUT I don't subscribe to her views on the EU, or on immigration and islam, so wouldn't vote for her)

Totally agree.
I wonder if like the uk there is a "feeling disenfrachised" group of folk who are beyond the pollsters. Having spent a lot of time in Paris on the outskirts, I suspect that is the case.

For the majority of French people Marine Le Pen is not a "fairly mainstream politician". She is not treated as one by the media (and it helps her) but she is also not perceived as one, an advantage but a strong roadblock for centrist voters.

By the way, she has barely been on tv the last two months, and so have her main supporters, as a deliberate tactical move: the Front national wants to (ab)use the rules on balanced tv access to save their "rights" in terms of tv appearances for later in the campaign. They have refused several prime-time interviews.

Chris_from_Paris

Paristonda said:

FPT:

Paristonda said:

Evening all,

http://prospect.org/article/will-marine-le-pen-become-france’s-next-president

This is an interesting article on the French Presidential election, also sceptical about Fillon's chances against Le Pen (as am I). She is in some ways well placed against Fillon, and because of their broad agreement on Islam, it will be difficult to attack her as being 'neo-fascist'. I actually think Islam will therefore end up playing a relatively minor role in the second round, and it will be much more dominated by economic issues and anti-globalisation. Here, Le Pen is more in tune with the average French voter than Fillon. Frexit is the wildcard here, i'm not sure just how ready France is to quit the EU (and before looking at polls, remember the UK polls pre-campaign!). Leaving the Eurozone but remaining in the EU may be a better option politically.

The dynamics will be totally different to 2002 and I think we can discount a rerun of that vote. Fillon is not a harmless chirac-like centrist, he is perceived as a thatcherite ideologue (yes, his economic views are not extreme from our perspective, but they are from a French one. This thatcherite label is not just popular in the British press, but in the French press too). Marine is not personally a 'beyond-the-pale-fascist', but a fairly mainstream politician (despite the recent furore over her Andrew Marr appearance, she is always on TV in France, much like Farage in the UK).

Likewise, I think too much stock is being put in previous FN results.

A) this will be very much Marine 2017, not FN 2017. She is far more popular than her party - look at the 18% she took in round 1 of 2012.

French voters in Calais etc are not stupid, they are well aware that the election next year is their Trump/Brexit moment. They will turn out in higher numbers than they have done so for any regional or parliamentary elections (accordingly, I predict the FN will do poorly at the 2017 legislative elections regardless).

Anyway, i'm not a betting man so DYOR and these are just my views on the election!

(To clarify, I think MLP is a very serious and charismatic politician, more so than Trump and Farage even, BUT I don't subscribe to her views on the EU, or on immigration and islam, so wouldn't vote for her)

Your point B is important: if the Front National does poorly in the legislative election, it will not govern.
The French system is a fake presidential one in a way: a president can only name a governement and propose lawas if he has a majority in parliament.

If Le Pen is elected president and does not get a majority she will be a (not very nice) figurehead doing nothing for 5 years.

rkrkrk

TheScreamingEagles said:

Things can unwind.

I'm reminded that ahead of GE 2015 it was said the Tories needed a lead of around 11% to get a majority

I think this is assuming the SNP continue to win basically all of Scotland.

tlg86

@Chris_from_Paris - thanks for the summaries, really useful. Do they have presidential debates in France? If so, who will/might be in them?

CarlottaVance

SeanT said:

Greetings from the new, very glamorous Etihad Lounge at Melbourne Airport.

Pity they run the 777 on that route....on the bright side A6-ETM is only 4 years old....enjoy your flight!

tlg86

Just watched the highlights of the last day of New Zealand v Pakistan. Some "interesting" dismissals in the Pakistan collapse.

Chris_from_Paris

tlg86 said:

@Chris_from_Paris - thanks for the summaries, really useful. Do they have presidential debates in France? If so, who will/might be in them?

The main customary TV debate is the one organized on the Wednesday before the second round between the two final candidates.
Chirac refused to debate against Jean-Marie Le Pen in 2002 and Le Pen did not insist. I am pretty sure no one would refuse to debate against Marine Le Pen this time.

The last time, public TV France2 tried to organize two debates between all 10 candidates. Sarkozy and Hollande refused.
So the final format was:
- two programs composed of back to back interviews of 5 candidates, boradcasted on two consecutive nights in prime time; 10 days before the first round
- a real debate between five candidates and five proxies for those who refused the debate (the 5 big candidates Sarko Hollande Le Pen Mélenchon and Bayrou)

felix

rkrkrk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Things can unwind.

I'm reminded that ahead of GE 2015 it was said the Tories needed a lead of around 11% to get a majority

I think this is assuming the SNP continue to win basically all of Scotland.

if they don't they'll be losing seats to the Conservatives not Labour!

RobD

felix said:

rkrkrk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Things can unwind.

I'm reminded that ahead of GE 2015 it was said the Tories needed a lead of around 11% to get a majority

I think this is assuming the SNP continue to win basically all of Scotland.

if they don't they'll be losing seats to the Conservatives not Labour!

Is that the Scottish Tory Surge Klaxon I hear?

foxinsoxuk

Paristonda said:

peter_from_putney said:

I see the LibDems have slumped to 7%, down 2%, in the latest Guardian/ICM poll, not that you'll have read much about this in the PB.com headers.
So over 16 months since having been elected as their leader, the uninspiring Mr. Farron is still in two taxi territory.
Consequently, as regards their prospects in Richmond Park ..... absolutely no chance and let's not forget that it's not that long since this was a safe seat for the Yellow Team.

If the LDs do lose, Farron should consider his position. The LDs have been blessed with a very favourable set of conditions post-2015, but Farron has been distinctly underwhelming.

I was at an LD party meeting a couple of weeks back, there were some wanting Clegg back, but not serious discontent with Farron. He is safe until the next election at least.

tlg86

foxinsoxuk said:

Paristonda said:

peter_from_putney said:

I see the LibDems have slumped to 7%, down 2%, in the latest Guardian/ICM poll, not that you'll have read much about this in the PB.com headers.
So over 16 months since having been elected as their leader, the uninspiring Mr. Farron is still in two taxi territory.
Consequently, as regards their prospects in Richmond Park ..... absolutely no chance and let's not forget that it's not that long since this was a safe seat for the Yellow Team.

If the LDs do lose, Farron should consider his position. The LDs have been blessed with a very favourable set of conditions post-2015, but Farron has been distinctly underwhelming.

I was at an LD party meeting a couple of weeks back, there were some wanting Clegg back, but not serious discontent with Farron. He is safe until the next election at least.

It's sadly ironic that Nick Clegg would be the perfect leader for the Lib Dems right now.

tlg86

Thanks @Chris_from_Paris, it'll be interesting to see what happens this time. A debate before the first round would be interesting.

PlatoSaid

If you missed this yesterday, Godfrey says he wrote it. He's so dry and very funny on Twitter - this seems like just his sort of prank. Well worth following. This piece got almost 22k shares on CIF.

Godfrey Elfwick
OK, I hold my hands up... I wrote this.

‘Alt-right’ online poison nearly turned me into a racist | Anonymous https://t.co/dn2y9lXdEp


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/28/alt-right-online-poison-racist-bigot-sam-harris-milo-yiannopoulos-islamophobia?CMP=share_btn_tw

Charles

foxinsoxuk said:

MTimT said:

Where did they get that picture of Corbyn. Hardly dressed the part of the champion of the ordinary working prole.

Nothing is too good for the workers.

It may be a photoshop. Jezza doesn't have a suit that fits properly.

To be fair to Corbyn, I believe it was a comedy send up that he willingly participated it. But naive to create an iconic image though...

Charles

nunu said:

Paristonda said:

On Topic - i'm not dismissing the mountain Corbyn has ahead of him, but these arguments about the system swinging in the tories favour ring a bit hollow with me. Before 2015 the system was supposedly strongly biased against the Tories - simply having efficient vote distribution allowed them to overcome this. Likewise, IF labour were to achieve an unexpectedly efficient vote distribution, these arguments about inherent difficulty for Labour would vanish.

exactly. they said the same about the Dems and their apperent advantage in the electoral college which turned out to be bull. Before that they said Bush Jr had an advantage all crap.

If Corbyn builds the right coaltion he won't nedd a 13% Lead, I still remember when they said tories need a 11% lead.....

The Tories got a 7-8% lead and eaked out a tiny majority by being very lucky/highly skilled (delete as appropriate) in how a whole range of marginal seats turned

The people who said 11% (and I don't remember it being that high) weren't far off.

Charles

Speedy said:

Trump getting results:

https://twitter.com/Carrier/status/803764047300722688
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/803766003372990464

Including making Romney look like he is suffering:

https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedNews/status/803776634704695296

It must be humiliating for Romney to crawl to someone he clearly despises

foxinsoxuk

Charles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MTimT said:

Where did they get that picture of Corbyn. Hardly dressed the part of the champion of the ordinary working prole.

Nothing is too good for the workers.

It may be a photoshop. Jezza doesn't have a suit that fits properly.

To be fair to Corbyn, I believe it was a comedy send up that he willingly participated it. But naive to create an iconic image though...

I must have missed that #LastLeg, but glad he entered the spirit of the show. It is amongst tbe best light entertainment shows on current affairs

Alanbrooke

Merkel says Turkey wont enter EU. Erdogan threatens to open his borders.


http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/europaeische-union/ansage-in-fraktionssitzung-eu-beitritt-der-tuerkei-soll-fuer-merkel-kein-thema-mehr-sein-14551787.html

Pulpstar

What % do Labour need to be ahead by in order to be ~ 50 seats short of a majority.

That's the real target since the SNP/Plaid won't work with the Conservatives.

MP_SE

PlatoSaid said:

If you missed this yesterday, Godfrey says he wrote it. He's so dry and very funny on Twitter - this seems like just his sort of prank. Well worth following. This piece got almost 22k shares on CIF.

Godfrey Elfwick
OK, I hold my hands up... I wrote this.

‘Alt-right’ online poison nearly turned me into a racist | Anonymous https://t.co/dn2y9lXdEp


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/28/alt-right-online-poison-racist-bigot-sam-harris-milo-yiannopoulos-islamophobia?CMP=share_btn_tw

The fact the Guardian even published that article shows how completely out of touch they are. It was really unbelievable.

PlatoSaid

SkyNews
A German intelligence officer is being held after allegedly making Islamist declarations on the internet https://t.co/7xFP0pnr3r

PlatoSaid

Charles said:

Speedy said:

Trump getting results:

https://twitter.com/Carrier/status/803764047300722688
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/803766003372990464

Including making Romney look like he is suffering:

https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedNews/status/803776634704695296

It must be humiliating for Romney to crawl to someone he clearly despises

The look on Romney's face is priceless

old_labour

You couldn't make it up.

Hillary Clinton makes surprise appearance at Unicef Snowflake Ball

PlatoSaid

MP_SE said:

PlatoSaid said:

If you missed this yesterday, Godfrey says he wrote it. He's so dry and very funny on Twitter - this seems like just his sort of prank. Well worth following. This piece got almost 22k shares on CIF.

Godfrey Elfwick
OK, I hold my hands up... I wrote this.

‘Alt-right’ online poison nearly turned me into a racist | Anonymous https://t.co/dn2y9lXdEp


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/28/alt-right-online-poison-racist-bigot-sam-harris-milo-yiannopoulos-islamophobia?CMP=share_btn_tw

The fact the Guardian even published that article shows how completely out of touch they are. It was really unbelievable.

It ticked every box. He's got the genre down to a fine art on Twitter. I see him unwittingly RTd by those who aren't familiar with his piss taking and think he's being serious.

Anyone who knows him, it's so close to the knuckle that I wince as he lands another blow.

ydoethur

Charles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MTimT said:

Where did they get that picture of Corbyn. Hardly dressed the part of the champion of the ordinary working prole.

Nothing is too good for the workers.

It may be a photoshop. Jezza doesn't have a suit that fits properly.

To be fair to Corbyn, I believe it was a comedy send up that he willingly participated it. But naive to create an iconic image though...

It makes him look like an arrogant, smug, not over-bright posh boy who is completely out of touch with ordinary people and is indulging in James Bond fantasies most of us outgrew in our late teens.

Problem is, substitute 'Socialist' for 'James Bond' and that describes him absolutely perfectly. It would have been funnier if he'd appeared in a cloth cap and overalls.

DecrepitJohnL

MP_SE said:

PlatoSaid said:

If you missed this yesterday, Godfrey says he wrote it. He's so dry and very funny on Twitter - this seems like just his sort of prank. Well worth following. This piece got almost 22k shares on CIF.

Godfrey Elfwick
OK, I hold my hands up... I wrote this.

‘Alt-right’ online poison nearly turned me into a racist | Anonymous https://t.co/dn2y9lXdEp


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/28/alt-right-online-poison-racist-bigot-sam-harris-milo-yiannopoulos-islamophobia?CMP=share_btn_tw

The fact the Guardian even published that article shows how completely out of touch they are. It was really unbelievable.

Wasn't it called out on pb as a likely spoof?

GeoffM

RobD said:

Anyone still think this isn't a huge scam?

https://twitter.com/DrJillStein/status/803640959087050752

Yes but it's a Left-On-Left friendly fire scam, so I'm happy to let it play out.

Charles

.

PlatoSaid said:

Charles said:

Speedy said:

Trump getting results:

https://twitter.com/Carrier/status/803764047300722688
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/803766003372990464

Including making Romney look like he is suffering:

https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedNews/status/803776634704695296

It must be humiliating for Romney to crawl to someone he clearly despises

The look on Romney's face is priceless

It's sort of "yes I'm really doing this. You won't tell anyone, will you?"

GeoffM

Charles said:

.

PlatoSaid said:

Charles said:

Speedy said:

Trump getting results:

https://twitter.com/Carrier/status/803764047300722688
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/803766003372990464

Including making Romney look like he is suffering:

https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedNews/status/803776634704695296

It must be humiliating for Romney to crawl to someone he clearly despises

The look on Romney's face is priceless

It's sort of "yes I'm really doing this. You won't tell anyone, will you?"

Well to be fair it looks like a private intimate dinner between two ordinary blokes and a photographer.

It's guaranteed to stay off the radar!

Alanbrooke

RBS fails stress test.

So much for Osborne's privatisation plans

PlatoSaid

GeoffM said:

RobD said:

Anyone still think this isn't a huge scam?

https://twitter.com/DrJillStein/status/803640959087050752

Yes but it's a Left-On-Left friendly fire scam, so I'm happy to let it play out.

WI confirmed last night it'd received the wire payment and process will start. Hearing in Pennsylvania on Thursday.

She's now asking for $9.5M

PlatoSaid

GeoffM said:

Charles said:

.

PlatoSaid said:

Charles said:

Speedy said:

Trump getting results:

https://twitter.com/Carrier/status/803764047300722688
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/803766003372990464

Including making Romney look like he is suffering:

https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedNews/status/803776634704695296

It must be humiliating for Romney to crawl to someone he clearly despises

The look on Romney's face is priceless

It's sort of "yes I'm really doing this. You won't tell anyone, will you?"

Well to be fair it looks like a private intimate dinner between two ordinary blokes and a photographer.

It's guaranteed to stay off the radar!

Revenge is a dish best eaten in public

TheScreamingEagles

The Times/YouGov - Scotland poll

Support for Scottish independence has slumped below the 45 per cent achieved by Yes campaigners in the referendum and now stands at its lowest point since September 2014, according to a new poll for The Times.

The research comes at the end of the SNP’s national survey, in which Nicola Sturgeon pledged to have her party communicate with two million Scots to determine the mood of the nation and work out how to convert “no” voters to her cause.

Although the Nationalists are not publishing the results of the survey — which concludes today, on St Andrew’s Day — YouGov now puts support for separation at just 44 per cent, while backing for the Union is at 56 per cent.

It also reveals that only 31 per cent of Scots want the Scottish government to campaign for independence in the next two years. Fifty-six per cent think it should not, while the rest do not know. Even among those who voted “yes” in 2014, only 60 per cent want ministers to campaign for separation in that time-scale, while the figure among “no” voters is only 9 per cent.

John Curtice, Scotland’s leading polling expert, said the Times data was the first poll to suggest that the “yes” vote has fallen below the level of September 18, 2014.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/support-for-independence-sinks-0j2bc7jxc

Pulpstar

Alanbrooke said:

RBS fails stress test.

So much for Osborne's privatisation plans

Barclays also struggled. I'm holding RBS anyhow.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Times/YouGov - Scotland poll

Support for Scottish independence has slumped below the 45 per cent achieved by Yes campaigners in the referendum and now stands at its lowest point since September 2014, according to a new poll for The Times.

The research comes at the end of the SNP’s national survey, in which Nicola Sturgeon pledged to have her party communicate with two million Scots to determine the mood of the nation and work out how to convert “no” voters to her cause.

Although the Nationalists are not publishing the results of the survey — which concludes today, on St Andrew’s Day — YouGov now puts support for separation at just 44 per cent, while backing for the Union is at 56 per cent.

It also reveals that only 31 per cent of Scots want the Scottish government to campaign for independence in the next two years. Fifty-six per cent think it should not, while the rest do not know. Even among those who voted “yes” in 2014, only 60 per cent want ministers to campaign for separation in that time-scale, while the figure among “no” voters is only 9 per cent.

John Curtice, Scotland’s leading polling expert, said the Times data was the first poll to suggest that the “yes” vote has fallen below the level of September 18, 2014.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/support-for-independence-sinks-0j2bc7jxc

The last paragraph is a straight fact that in the reader's mind gives the poll more 'meaning' than might otherwise be attached. It could be a genuine dip for Scottish independence or just noise - Prof Curtice has not opined on that.

CarlottaVance

Support for Scottish independence has slumped below the 45 per cent achieved by Yes campaigners in the referendum and now stands at its lowest point since September 2014, according to a new poll for The Times.

The research comes at the end of the SNP’s national survey, in which Nicola Sturgeon pledged to have her party communicate with two million Scots to determine the mood of the nation and work out how to convert “no” voters to her cause.

Although the Nationalists are not publishing the results of the survey — which concludes today, on St Andrew’s Day — YouGov now puts support for separation at just 44 per cent, while backing for the Union is at 56 per cent.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/support-for-independence-sinks-0j2bc7jxc

TheScreamingEagles

Ms Davidson’s personal net approval is now at 25 points, up from 21 in the last Times poll three months ago. Her overall net positive rating is more than double Ms Sturgeon’s 11 points.

Support for the Conservatives is up in both the constituency vote and the regional vote, from 21 per cent in both in August, to 25 per cent and 24 per cent. Support for the SNP, meanwhile, has dropped from 52 per cent to 48 per cent in the constituency vote and 45 per cent to 39 per cent in the regional vote.

Labour, meanwhile, is trailing both parties — and Kezia Dugdale is far less popular than her rival leaders. Her net approval rating is negative 21, while her party has dropped a point to 15 per cent in the constituency vote and a point in the regional vote to 14 per cent.

This would translate into seats of

SNP 63 (nc)

Con 32 (+1)

Lab 17 (-7)

Greens 12 (+6)

LD 5 (nc)

Pulpstar

PlatoSaid said:

GeoffM said:

RobD said:

Anyone still think this isn't a huge scam?

https://twitter.com/DrJillStein/status/803640959087050752

Yes but it's a Left-On-Left friendly fire scam, so I'm happy to let it play out.

WI confirmed last night it'd received the wire payment and process will start. Hearing in Pennsylvania on Thursday.

She's now asking for $9.5M

The real purpose is to delay the states past filing deadline.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ms Davidson’s personal net approval is now at 25 points, up from 21 in the last Times poll three months ago. Her overall net positive rating is more than double Ms Sturgeon’s 11 points.

Support for the Conservatives is up in both the constituency vote and the regional vote, from 21 per cent in both in August, to 25 per cent and 24 per cent. Support for the SNP, meanwhile, has dropped from 52 per cent to 48 per cent in the constituency vote and 45 per cent to 39 per cent in the regional vote.

Labour, meanwhile, is trailing both parties — and Kezia Dugdale is far less popular than her rival leaders. Her net approval rating is negative 21, while her party has dropped a point to 15 per cent in the constituency vote and a point in the regional vote to 14 per cent.

This would translate into seats of

SNP 63 (nc)

Con 32 (+1)

Lab 17 (-7)

Greens 12 (+6)

LD 5 (nc)

The long term Scottish squeeze continues for Labour.

CarlottaVance

PlatoSaid said:

SkyNews
A German intelligence officer is being held after allegedly making Islamist declarations on the internet https://t.co/7xFP0pnr3r

Just as well Mutti isn't doing anything to p*ss off the country with the best Western European Intelligence Service then.....

PlatoSaid

Haha

Check the table before someone corrects it

https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_countries_by_salt_production&oldid=752145317

Jonathan

PlatoSaid said:

Haha

Check the table before someone corrects it

https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_countries_by_salt_production&oldid=752145317

Isn't this a bit silly. Can't imagine previous winning campaigns doing this. Normally those about to govern have better things to do. Doesn't bode well.

SquareRoot

A mere -7c in my Sussex garden this morning.. I feel sure it must be colder elsewhere?

Pulpstar

Jonathan said:

PlatoSaid said:

Haha

Check the table before someone corrects it

https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_countries_by_salt_production&oldid=752145317

Isn't this a bit silly. Can't imagine previous winning campaigns doing this. Normally those about to govern have better things to do. Doesn't bode well.

I doubt the actual Trump campaign has been editing wikipedia pages.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

PlatoSaid said:

Haha

Check the table before someone corrects it

https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_countries_by_salt_production&oldid=752145317

Wonderful. Gave me a laugh anyway.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

So, the forecast for the next election is that the Conservatives = Galactic Empire and Labour = Alderaan?

MarqueeMark

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Times/YouGov - Scotland poll

Support for Scottish independence has slumped below the 45 per cent achieved by Yes campaigners in the referendum and now stands at its lowest point since September 2014, according to a new poll for The Times.

The research comes at the end of the SNP’s national survey, in which Nicola Sturgeon pledged to have her party communicate with two million Scots to determine the mood of the nation and work out how to convert “no” voters to her cause.

Although the Nationalists are not publishing the results of the survey — which concludes today, on St Andrew’s Day — YouGov now puts support for separation at just 44 per cent, while backing for the Union is at 56 per cent.

It also reveals that only 31 per cent of Scots want the Scottish government to campaign for independence in the next two years. Fifty-six per cent think it should not, while the rest do not know. Even among those who voted “yes” in 2014, only 60 per cent want ministers to campaign for separation in that time-scale, while the figure among “no” voters is only 9 per cent.

John Curtice, Scotland’s leading polling expert, said the Times data was the first poll to suggest that the “yes” vote has fallen below the level of September 18, 2014.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/support-for-independence-sinks-0j2bc7jxc

Hmmmm...that "slump" below 45%? It's to "just 44%". Good job there's no margin or error then......

MarqueeMark

PlatoSaid said:

Haha

Check the table before someone corrects it

https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_countries_by_salt_production&oldid=752145317

Putin will be along shortly to claim its all a liberal plot to make his salt mines uneconomic.....

Pulpstar

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

So, the forecast for the next election is that the Conservatives = Galactic Empire and Labour = Alderaan?

You need to confirm your participation in the diplomacy game, young Morris !

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ms Davidson’s personal net approval is now at 25 points, up from 21 in the last Times poll three months ago. Her overall net positive rating is more than double Ms Sturgeon’s 11 points.

Support for the Conservatives is up in both the constituency vote and the regional vote, from 21 per cent in both in August, to 25 per cent and 24 per cent. Support for the SNP, meanwhile, has dropped from 52 per cent to 48 per cent in the constituency vote and 45 per cent to 39 per cent in the regional vote.

Labour, meanwhile, is trailing both parties — and Kezia Dugdale is far less popular than her rival leaders. Her net approval rating is negative 21, while her party has dropped a point to 15 per cent in the constituency vote and a point in the regional vote to 14 per cent.

This would translate into seats of

SNP 63 (nc)

Con 32 (+1)

Lab 17 (-7)

Greens 12 (+6)

LD 5 (nc)

Gadzooks!

RobD

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

So, the forecast for the next election is that the Conservatives = Galactic Empire and Labour = Alderaan?

May is indeed set to enact article 66

Jonathan

SquareRoot said:

A mere -7c in my Sussex garden this morning.. I feel sure it must be colder elsewhere?

Not another Sussex PBr. The county is over represented. Wonder why..

foxinsoxuk

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

So, the forecast for the next election is that the Conservatives = Galactic Empire and Labour = Alderaan?

Can you confirm on playdiplomacy? then the game can start.

fingers crossed - not Austria...

DecrepitJohnL

PlatoSaid said:

Haha

Check the table before someone corrects it

https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_countries_by_salt_production&oldid=752145317

They have corrected it -- your link is to an old revision -- see that "oldid=" near the end.

DavidL

Philip_Thompson said:

Given that the SNP (and SDLP and PC and Green) will caucus with Labour only and not the Tories if we put them in a red rainbow column what lead would the assorted left need to win?

I think that is a solid point. A major factor in this very high lead for Labour before they get a majority is the catastrophe they have suffered in Scotland where 50 previously very safe seats have all gone massively reducing the efficiency of their vote overall. But those seats have gone to the SNP and they are very unlikely to support a tory government, especially one committed to Brexit so the efficiency comes back again indirectly.

In contrast according to the ICM poll yesterday the Tories are at the giddy heights of 30% in Scotland. Given the hegemony of the SNP this actually reduces the efficiency of their vote because that 30% would win them less than 5 seats resulting in over 1m wasted votes.

CarlottaVance

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Times/YouGov - Scotland poll

Support for Scottish independence has slumped below the 45 per cent achieved by Yes campaigners in the referendum and now stands at its lowest point since September 2014, according to a new poll for The Times.

The research comes at the end of the SNP’s national survey, in which Nicola Sturgeon pledged to have her party communicate with two million Scots to determine the mood of the nation and work out how to convert “no” voters to her cause.

Although the Nationalists are not publishing the results of the survey — which concludes today, on St Andrew’s Day — YouGov now puts support for separation at just 44 per cent, while backing for the Union is at 56 per cent.

It also reveals that only 31 per cent of Scots want the Scottish government to campaign for independence in the next two years. Fifty-six per cent think it should not, while the rest do not know. Even among those who voted “yes” in 2014, only 60 per cent want ministers to campaign for separation in that time-scale, while the figure among “no” voters is only 9 per cent.

John Curtice, Scotland’s leading polling expert, said the Times data was the first poll to suggest that the “yes” vote has fallen below the level of September 18, 2014.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/support-for-independence-sinks-0j2bc7jxc

Hmmmm...that "slump" below 45%? It's to "just 44%". Good job there's no margin or error then......

In fairness, when its the other way Nats talk about 'soaring'........

What may be more meaningful are some of the internals......which appear to suggest that BREXIT is not the 'Independence Magic Bullet' the SNP had hoped.....

Morris_Dancer

Sorry, chaps, I was away when the seventh joined.

Huzzah for England!

PlatoSaid

Pulpstar said:

PlatoSaid said:

GeoffM said:

RobD said:

Anyone still think this isn't a huge scam?

https://twitter.com/DrJillStein/status/803640959087050752

Yes but it's a Left-On-Left friendly fire scam, so I'm happy to let it play out.

WI confirmed last night it'd received the wire payment and process will start. Hearing in Pennsylvania on Thursday.

She's now asking for $9.5M

The real purpose is to delay the states past filing deadline.

That's my view.

RobD

PlatoSaid said:

Pulpstar said:

PlatoSaid said:

GeoffM said:

RobD said:

Anyone still think this isn't a huge scam?

https://twitter.com/DrJillStein/status/803640959087050752

Yes but it's a Left-On-Left friendly fire scam, so I'm happy to let it play out.

WI confirmed last night it'd received the wire payment and process will start. Hearing in Pennsylvania on Thursday.

She's now asking for $9.5M

The real purpose is to delay the states past filing deadline.

That's my view.

The WI recount wont be a manual by-hand recount though. Which kinda defeats the point of it!

YBarddCwsc

DavidL said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Given that the SNP (and SDLP and PC and Green) will caucus with Labour only and not the Tories if we put them in a red rainbow column what lead would the assorted left need to win?

I think that is a solid point. A major factor in this very high lead for Labour before they get a majority is the catastrophe they have suffered in Scotland where 50 previously very safe seats have all gone massively reducing the efficiency of their vote overall. But those seats have gone to the SNP and they are very unlikely to support a tory government, especially one committed to Brexit so the efficiency comes back again indirectly.

In contrast according to the ICM poll yesterday the Tories are at the giddy heights of 30% in Scotland. Given the hegemony of the SNP this actually reduces the efficiency of their vote because that 30% would win them less than 5 seats resulting in over 1m wasted votes.

The SNP/PC/Greens interest in a 'red alliance' is surely very limited. Their enemy (in terms of taking seats) is almost always Labour.

Being the fall guy in an coalition went out of fashion in 2015. See Clegg.

The 'red alliances' that PC have formed with Labour in the Welsh Assembly have always resulted in the PC vote falling back in the next election.

[Deleted User]

So with the red rabble 16% behind and needing to be around 14% ahead they've only got 30% to catch up. With Jezza in charge and a radical popular new socialist manifesto they'll storm ahead.

DavidL

CarlottaVance said:

Support for Scottish independence has slumped below the 45 per cent achieved by Yes campaigners in the referendum and now stands at its lowest point since September 2014, according to a new poll for The Times.

The research comes at the end of the SNP’s national survey, in which Nicola Sturgeon pledged to have her party communicate with two million Scots to determine the mood of the nation and work out how to convert “no” voters to her cause.

Although the Nationalists are not publishing the results of the survey — which concludes today, on St Andrew’s Day — YouGov now puts support for separation at just 44 per cent, while backing for the Union is at 56 per cent.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/support-for-independence-sinks-0j2bc7jxc

What I think is more significant is that Davidson is consolidating and focussing the Unionist vote in a way that simply didn't happen with Better Together which was run very badly by Scottish Labour and had many unhappy bedfellows. I vividly recall me delivering Scottish Labour leaflets and even, god help me, wearing Labour badges at events where they were campaigning for the Union. Worst of all I applauded Gordon Brown when he gave one of his turgid speeches in the Caird Hall. I still feel ashamed about that.

There is no doubt that a new Better Together would be led by Ruth and it would be led a hell of a lot better than Darling led the old one. His catastrophic performance in the second debate caused many a sleepless night. Her high personal standing is a major challenge to Nicola (who in fairness retains a very high personal standing too).

david_herdson

DavidL said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Given that the SNP (and SDLP and PC and Green) will caucus with Labour only and not the Tories if we put them in a red rainbow column what lead would the assorted left need to win?

I think that is a solid point. A major factor in this very high lead for Labour before they get a majority is the catastrophe they have suffered in Scotland where 50 previously very safe seats have all gone massively reducing the efficiency of their vote overall. But those seats have gone to the SNP and they are very unlikely to support a tory government, especially one committed to Brexit so the efficiency comes back again indirectly.

In contrast according to the ICM poll yesterday the Tories are at the giddy heights of 30% in Scotland. Given the hegemony of the SNP this actually reduces the efficiency of their vote because that 30% would win them less than 5 seats resulting in over 1m wasted votes.

It would also reduce Labour's inefficiency, as they'd have around 150k fewer votes returning 1 less MP.