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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nuttall’s first goal as UKIP leader is winning under first pas
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nuttall’s first goal as UKIP leader is winning under first past the post
Today marks another new chapter in UKIP’s short history with the election by a substantial majority of members of Paul Nuttall as party leader. He’s from the North West and has a very different back story than the public-school former city trader, Nigel Farage, that he replaces.
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But we said that about Corbyn. And Trump. And the possibility of Brexit. They're never going to get a better opportunity to make their mark than under Labour's current leadership.
lol.
(1) voters think immigration is too high, and has been for some time
(2) voters want to be able to control the type and quantity of it through the ballot box
(3) voters think Labour politicians have paid, at best, lip service to this, after a period where they actively encouraged the above - and denied them a choice
(3) voters are unlikely to return a majority Labour government until it understands this, and has made amends
So to regain the voters trust on this Labour are going to have to promise control of numbers, with a credible and fair plan to do so, with their politicians really meaning it, and to follow through on it in office.
I think they are a long way off that.
“There are great lessons to be learned from Castro’s Cuba. He managed to link national identity and national independence with a progressive, socialist project”
Excuse me while I throw up.
The trouble was that genuine economic migration then let rip, and blew confidence out of the water.
I would be surprised if MEP staff and resources are not important to Ukip. The odd rich donor is fine but it can't properly replace party machinery and offices have credibility with names with letters after them that 'random bloke paid by rich random bloke' never can.
I know that the next election is existential for Labour. But I think they will survive. By doing so, they could finish Ukip.
UKIP's strategic situation is fantastic. That said, Nuttall has not only the FPTP challenge, but the difficulty of mending a party that seems riven with factionalism.
If, on the other hand, Brexit is carried out reasonably well, the economy grows, and it is felt that there has been a meaningful diminution of the number of (particularly low skilled) migrants heading towards the UK, then UKIP will likely fade into obscurity and infighting.
Unless they re-imagine themselves as the workers party, and gain footholds in the North against Islington Labour.
Trump style "put the great back in great Britain" opportunity with promises of making stuff again etc etc etc. It doesn't matter how unrealistic it might be, there are a lot of people for who globalism doesn't feel very good for them.
I'm not convinced they can. Senior UKIP management would rather be swanning around the US doing photo opps with Donald Trump than slogging door to door in Doncaster.
It's inferior to my suggestion.
Not a slogan-lover myself, but they should be short, easily understood and easily remembered. Generally speaking, the fewer words the better.
However: if Nuttall pursues a solely English (or English + Welsh) approach to Westminster elections, this may not harm him and could be a net positive for UKIP.
In it, he says: "I can therefore see the emergence of a grand bargain in which the US accepts China’s political and social structure and commits not to disrupt it in any way in exchange for China’s commitment not to challenge the status quo in Asia.".
In other words, the chance of China being branded a currency manipulator and 45% tariffs being imposed is close to zero.
Though they may have to rename themselves EWIP.
That might appear to signify the US simply accepting that state of affairs rather than contesting it.
Man made climate change is a hoax
Hillary Clinton should be in prison
China is a currency manipulator
Mexico will pay for a wall
NAFTA needs to be reformed
Or WASP, the Welsh and Anglo-Saxon Party.
SPEW....
Personally, I think they need to develop a strong local infrastucture of councillors and activists. Should they develop that, and a reputation for competence, then the opportunity to be the Put The Great Back Into Britain Party exists. But it requires a lot of hard grind that I'm unconvinced UKIP's leadership is up for.
I doubt Woolsey is in the loop on trade policy.
I read all those predictions ad nauseam on this site and they were all wrong. Something or, more likely, somethings have changed in communications and the way politics are done and perhaps we need to update our mental models from what worked years ago.
That said, I do not believe have the will or ability to morph into a "workers party" to take on Labour in its Northern heartlands. I think it will lose support because its job is in effect done.
So UKIP should have a 52% strategy.
Hardly the sign of a very healthy political party!
The Conservative Party has Councillors, MPs, Mayors, MEPs, and - of course - the government.
The Labour Party has people at every level, as does the SNP. The LibDems have some.
UKIP has MEPs. One MP. And very few Councillors,
Simply, I think it is very hard to build a government from only one layer of the governance cake.
The UK has indicated it will ratify the Unified Patent Court agreement. That strongly indicates that whatever the rhetoric the UK is seeking a Brexit on the soft side.
I agree it is significant and suggests that we want to do what we can to retain single market status.
Maybe a UKIP/Tory coalition is what we need. Hand them that poisoned chalice. Incidentally, it's worth noting that a Nuttall led UKIP might not be great for the Tories across the Midlands.
But one at 15-20% across a swath of the Midlands and North, drawn largely from Labour voters, would help the Tories.
Car Crash Brexit still looks the single most likely outcome to me.
Con 40%
Lab 22%
LD 12%
UKIP 16%
*Just 20% once Labour's hard core (15%?), the SNP's support and non voters are removed from the calculation.
The idea of the ground game and local networks seems as out of date as public meetings in church halls. At any rate those relying on such indicators have been proved wrong time and a gain in recent years.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-signals-green-light-to-unified-patent-court-agreement
A good media campaign, an effective frontman and a favourable political wind probably negates the need for endless Focus leaflets these days.
What I think it indicates is that the UK government would be happy with an a la carte Brexit.
Both remainers and leavers need to let the process begin as soon as possible. I know some on here do not like Theresa May but I cannot think of anyone I would rather have in control of this devilish difficult process
Question is will Congress go ahead with the $1trillion in infrastructure spend, or just tax credits bs.
Oh but of course it was our sovereign decision to allow the ECJ to opine on this matter. But then so was it thus beforehand as applied to any number of areas.
Stupid naive fuckers.
Perhaps if the people in charge of the EU had listened to the people in earlier votes (e.g. France) then we wouldn't be in this position. They didn't, we are and we have to make the best of it.