On topic, what an excellent contribution from Fishing.
Yes - quite succinctly pours cold water on all those hysterical snowflakes demanding Impeachment. Unless Trump really messes things up or tries to run roughshod over the American constitution then it ain't going to happen.
In the UK - a political party could win power by securing 1 million votes - or fail to win power and securing 20 million votes. These are admittedly (nearly) extremes and the most likely scenarios are those where the party wins the popular vote and the election - but this is not guaranteed.
Nah, not a million votes. I think 8m is the absolute minimum. 1m is ~3000 votes in each of 326 seats, or winning 40 seats with 25k votes in each one. I really don't think it would be possible not to win and have 20m votes.
Despite being the most pacific and sweet looking person I always get stopped by security at airports - setting off alarms everywhere, despite taking everything off which could possibly trigger them. It is becoming quite tiresome having to strip off every time. It's getting to the stage where I'm just going to go to the airport in my nightie, bring my clothes and get dressed after I've had security clearance.
One of the reasons I don't fly economy is whenever I go business/upper class is I very rarely get stopped.
I reckon they think most terrorists won't fly luxury.
The last time I flew first class (to NY) they were playing the song from Titanic in the lounge while we were waiting. It didn't seem the most fitting choice before a transatlantic voyage........
I've noticed there are always one or two air crash movies on offer on long haul flights. I watched "Flight" on the way to Cancun a couple of years ago.
"Appointees to President-elect Donald Trump's administration will be asked to sign a form barring them from being a registered lobbyist for five years after they leave government service, officials announced Wednesday.
Despite being the most pacific and sweet looking person I always get stopped by security at airports - setting off alarms everywhere, despite taking everything off which could possibly trigger them. It is becoming quite tiresome having to strip off every time. It's getting to the stage where I'm just going to go to the airport in my nightie, bring my clothes and get dressed after I've had security clearance.
One of the reasons I don't fly economy is whenever I go business/upper class is I very rarely get stopped.
I reckon they think most terrorists won't fly luxury.
The last time I flew first class (to NY) they were playing the song from Titanic in the lounge while we were waiting. It didn't seem the most fitting choice before a transatlantic voyage........
My worst flight to New York was in first class, I took my friend Rob, and he was enjoying all the booze, and he thought a flight to America was a good time to ask me why I was never interested in 72 virgins as I've never been the religious type.
I spent the rest of the flight convinced my connection in New York was going to be changed to Gitmo.
Well quite. Did he really think that posting a direct threat against the President-Elect on a public website would just be laughed off by those paid to keep him safe? This guy will now be on so many black lists his life is about to get very difficult.
I walk on eggshells just going through Immigration when flying to the US. Not a place for cracking jokes. Just keep a straight face and reply Yes, sir and No, ma'am. (Although once, when they pointed out a Pakistan visa in my passport, a well-placed "Ma'am, that is one CRAZY country!" seemed to be the response they wanted to hear and I was on my way....)
JFK was the most scary airport I've been through for border guards - they all looked like they chewed wasps for breakfast, lunch and tea. Only funeral face was appropriate.
A guy who worked for me back in the late 80s made a stupid joke whilst waiting in line at Miami - he got pulled out, quizzed for hours in a box room, strip searched and deported the same day. He was only there for a day between transfers. He couldn't get a visa to go back. No messing about.
I don't understand why they have to be rude and aggressive whilst doing their jobs.
I once got 'caught' trying to smuggle an apple into Canada (I'd forgotten to eat it on the flight) and had to strain every sinew not to respond with incredulity and sarcasm to the customs officer.
Australian customs are the worst for this, they go completely bonkers at anything organic that people try and bring in. Which is somewhat ironic, given the millions of horrible creatures found there - I thought my host was joking when he said to check shoes for scorpions before putting them on!
New Zealand don't allow any fruit in, they collect any that you have. It's fair enough as their economy would be badly affected by fruit diseases. Also got stopped in the 70s driving across the Rockies in the US, checking for certain foodstuffs even internally within the US.
"Appointees to President-elect Donald Trump's administration will be asked to sign a form barring them from being a registered lobbyist for five years after they leave government service, officials announced Wednesday.
"Appointees to President-elect Donald Trump's administration will be asked to sign a form barring them from being a registered lobbyist for five years after they leave government service, officials announced Wednesday.
Despite being the most pacific and sweet looking person I always get stopped by security at airports - setting off alarms everywhere, despite taking everything off which could possibly trigger them. It is becoming quite tiresome having to strip off every time. It's getting to the stage where I'm just going to go to the airport in my nightie, bring my clothes and get dressed after I've had security clearance.
My 'favourite' experience was having to unpack everything, including unwrapping the Christmas presents my wife had carefully wrapped for my mother, at Southampton Airport before flying to Alderney.
That seems a bit harsh, security obviously got out of the wrong side of the bed that day. – My ‘favourite’ anecdote was packing my father off to Qatar to visit my sister and her husband, they’d ask him to bring some brewing kit so his luggage was stuffed full of large plastic bags of dried hops and enough heart pills to keep a pharmacy going for months. – Security opened his suitcase, closed it again and waved him through. – It was a different time back then.
Despite being the most pacific and sweet looking person I always get stopped by security at airports - setting off alarms everywhere, despite taking everything off which could possibly trigger them. It is becoming quite tiresome having to strip off every time. It's getting to the stage where I'm just going to go to the airport in my nightie, bring my clothes and get dressed after I've had security clearance.
One of the reasons I don't fly economy is whenever I go business/upper class is I very rarely get stopped.
I reckon they think most terrorists won't fly luxury.
The last time I flew first class (to NY) they were playing the song from Titanic in the lounge while we were waiting. It didn't seem the most fitting choice before a transatlantic voyage........
I've noticed there are always one or two air crash movies on offer on long haul flights. I watched "Flight" on the way to Cancun a couple of years ago.
Back in 2004 they edited Love Actually heavily on the in flight entertainment.
The opening scene had all the references to 9/11 removed which made the opening scene incomprehensible, if you hadn't watched the film at the cinema.
Curiously they removed all the porn scenes from the film too, which made people think, why have they just brought Martin Freeman for a pointless scene at the end.
Despite being the most pacific and sweet looking person I always get stopped by security at airports - setting off alarms everywhere, despite taking everything off which could possibly trigger them. It is becoming quite tiresome having to strip off every time. It's getting to the stage where I'm just going to go to the airport in my nightie, bring my clothes and get dressed after I've had security clearance.
One of the reasons I don't fly economy is whenever I go business/upper class is I very rarely get stopped.
I reckon they think most terrorists won't fly luxury.
Weren't the 9/11 hijackers all sat up front in the posh seats?
Interesting article, thanks. What he says sounds logical. But were leavers harder to contact to poll?
I would presume if what he was saying is true then it could be in phone polls for instance that Labour remainers were over-represented and Conservative leavers under-represented.
Despite being the most pacific and sweet looking person I always get stopped by security at airports - setting off alarms everywhere, despite taking everything off which could possibly trigger them. It is becoming quite tiresome having to strip off every time. It's getting to the stage where I'm just going to go to the airport in my nightie, bring my clothes and get dressed after I've had security clearance.
My 'favourite' experience was having to unpack everything, including unwrapping the Christmas presents my wife had carefully wrapped for my mother, at Southampton Airport before flying to Alderney.
That seems a bit harsh, security obviously got out of the wrong side of the bed that day. – My ‘favourite’ anecdote was packing my father off to Qatar to visit my sister and her husband, they’d ask him to bring some brewing kit so his luggage was stuffed full of large plastic bags of dried hops and enough heart pills to keep a pharmacy going for months. – Security opened his suitcase, closed it again and waved him through. – It was a different time back then.
The bloke behind me was incandescent; said he'd flown from Jo'burg that day with less problems.
Despite being the most pacific and sweet looking person I always get stopped by security at airports - setting off alarms everywhere, despite taking everything off which could possibly trigger them. It is becoming quite tiresome having to strip off every time. It's getting to the stage where I'm just going to go to the airport in my nightie, bring my clothes and get dressed after I've had security clearance.
My 'favourite' experience was having to unpack everything, including unwrapping the Christmas presents my wife had carefully wrapped for my mother, at Southampton Airport before flying to Alderney.
That seems a bit harsh, security obviously got out of the wrong side of the bed that day. – My ‘favourite’ anecdote was packing my father off to Qatar to visit my sister and her husband, they’d ask him to bring some brewing kit so his luggage was stuffed full of large plastic bags of dried hops and enough heart pills to keep a pharmacy going for months. – Security opened his suitcase, closed it again and waved him through. – It was a different time back then.
I can't imagine Qatar would have been too happy to discover a brewing kit either, if they'd known what it was!
Dubai's 'favourite' item is poker chips or other gambling paraphernalia. Several friends have had them confiscated.
Despite being the most pacific and sweet looking person I always get stopped by security at airports - setting off alarms everywhere, despite taking everything off which could possibly trigger them. It is becoming quite tiresome having to strip off every time. It's getting to the stage where I'm just going to go to the airport in my nightie, bring my clothes and get dressed after I've had security clearance.
One of the reasons I don't fly economy is whenever I go business/upper class is I very rarely get stopped.
I reckon they think most terrorists won't fly luxury.
Weren't the 9/11 hijackers all sat up front in the posh seats?
Just googled, and you're right, some of them were sat in first class
Here's a scenario that could make impeachment more likely. Again, it occurred to me, but it would have rendered the article too long to include it.
If the Republicans lose control of Congress in the mid-terms, and the Democrats find evidence of abuses of power in the Executive Branch, they could move to impeach both Trump and Pence. That could be very attractive for them, because under the Presidential Succession Act of 1947, the next in line to the Presidency would be the Speaker of the House. As we've assumed that the Democrats have triumphed in the midterms, that would be a Democrat. So effectively, they'd have seized control of the Executive Branch without the need to win a Presidential election.
Very unlikely, especially as they would need 2/3 of Senators to agree to impeach including several Republicans, but not completely impossible ...
Despite being the most pacific and sweet looking person I always get stopped by security at airports - setting off alarms everywhere, despite taking everything off which could possibly trigger them. It is becoming quite tiresome having to strip off every time. It's getting to the stage where I'm just going to go to the airport in my nightie, bring my clothes and get dressed after I've had security clearance.
My 'favourite' experience was having to unpack everything, including unwrapping the Christmas presents my wife had carefully wrapped for my mother, at Southampton Airport before flying to Alderney.
That seems a bit harsh, security obviously got out of the wrong side of the bed that day. – My ‘favourite’ anecdote was packing my father off to Qatar to visit my sister and her husband, they’d ask him to bring some brewing kit so his luggage was stuffed full of large plastic bags of dried hops and enough heart pills to keep a pharmacy going for months. – Security opened his suitcase, closed it again and waved him through. – It was a different time back then.
I can't imagine Qatar would have been too happy to discover a brewing kit either, if they'd known what it was!
Dubai's 'favourite' item is poker chips or other gambling paraphernalia. Several friends have had them confiscated.
Saudi Arabia is surely the worst? If, for whatever reason, they find drugs in your luggage there's every chance you might actually be executed.
The problem with the terms of this bet is that there is just too much to prevent it winning. A successful impeachment requires not just such overwhelming evidence as to get two thirds of the Senate to vote, but for instance not enough overwheming evidence that the President resigns first like Nixon.
Out of 44 Presidents so far a grand total of 0 have been successfully impeached. I'd want odds of at least 45/1 to be tempted.
The problem with the terms of this bet is that there is just too much to prevent it winning. A successful impeachment requires not just such overwhelming evidence as to get two thirds of the Senate to vote, but for instance not enough overwheming evidence that the President resigns first like Nixon.
Out of 44 Presidents so far a grand total of 0 have been successfully impeached. I'd want odds of at least 45/1 to be tempted.
Technically I think both Clinton and Andrew Johnson were successfully impeached? Impeachment is separate from actually being convicted.
Well quite. Did he really think that posting a direct threat against the President-Elect on a public website would just be laughed off by those paid to keep him safe? This guy will now be on so many black lists his life is about to get very difficult.
I walk on eggshells just going through Immigration when flying to the US. Not a place for cracking jokes. Just keep a straight face and reply Yes, sir and No, ma'am. (Although once, when they pointed out a Pakistan visa in my passport, a well-placed "Ma'am, that is one CRAZY country!" seemed to be the response they wanted to hear and I was on my way....)
JFK was the most scary airport I've been through for border guards - they all looked like they chewed wasps for breakfast, lunch and tea. Only funeral face was appropriate.
A guy who worked for me back in the late 80s made a stupid joke whilst waiting in line at Miami - he got pulled out, quizzed for hours in a box room, strip searched and deported the same day. He was only there for a day between transfers. He couldn't get a visa to go back. No messing about.
I don't understand why they have to be rude and aggressive whilst doing their jobs.
I once got 'caught' trying to smuggle an apple into Canada (I'd forgotten to eat it on the flight) and had to strain every sinew not to respond with incredulity and sarcasm to the customs officer.
Australian customs are the worst for this, they go completely bonkers at anything organic that people try and bring in. Which is somewhat ironic, given the millions of horrible creatures found there - I thought my host was joking when he said to check shoes for scorpions before putting them on!
New Zealand don't allow any fruit in, they collect any that you have. It's fair enough as their economy would be badly affected by fruit diseases. Also got stopped in the 70s driving across the Rockies in the US, checking for certain foodstuffs even internally within the US.
I have been stopped at the Oregon/California border by a fruit search.
"Appointees to President-elect Donald Trump's administration will be asked to sign a form barring them from being a registered lobbyist for five years after they leave government service, officials announced Wednesday.
Assuming we're talking about red, it's the colour of the workers and peasants party, Thaksin's supporters. I've got an acquaintance with a high end car which he insisted on being red. The salesman warned him that it would be unsaleable on the second-hand market as no wealthy person would wish to be seen driving a red car.
Here's a scenario that could make impeachment more likely. Again, it occurred to me, but it would have rendered the article too long to include it.
If the Republicans lose control of Congress in the mid-terms, and the Democrats find evidence of abuses of power in the Executive Branch, they could move to impeach both Trump and Pence. That could be very attractive for them, because under the Constitution, the next in line to the Presidency would be the Speaker of the House. As we've assumed that the Democrats have triumphed in the midterms, that would be a Democrat. So effectively, they'd have seized control of the Executive Branch without the need to win a Presidential election.
Very unlikely, especially as they would need 2/3 of Senators to agree to impeach including several Republicans, but not completely impossible ...
Surely there's no way 2/3 of senators would vote to impeach Pence, if doing so would let a Democrat in as President. In that case the Republican party would be completely broken.
"Appointees to President-elect Donald Trump's administration will be asked to sign a form barring them from being a registered lobbyist for five years after they leave government service, officials announced Wednesday.
Despite being the most pacific and sweet looking person I always get stopped by security at airports - setting off alarms everywhere, despite taking everything off which could possibly trigger them. It is becoming quite tiresome having to strip off every time. It's getting to the stage where I'm just going to go to the airport in my nightie, bring my clothes and get dressed after I've had security clearance.
One of the reasons I don't fly economy is whenever I go business/upper class is I very rarely get stopped.
I reckon they think most terrorists won't fly luxury.
Weren't the 9/11 hijackers all sat up front in the posh seats?
Just googled, and you're right, some of them were sat in first class
"Successfully impeached" is ambiguous. An impeachment is a kind of charge. So is it settled when efforts to impeach him have been successful, in other words when he is impeached? Or only when he has been found guilty at impeachment trial? It's like saying that someone has been "successfully charged".
"If Trump is impeached, America will be looking at President Pence." I don't know how you work that one out. Bill Clinton was impeached, but there was no President Gore.
Surely there's no way 2/3 of senators would vote to impeach Pence, if doing so would let a Democrat in as President. In that case the Republican party would be completely broken.
Not no way, just incredibly, unbelievably unlikely. That's why I cut it out of the article.
This kind of war-gaming is fun though.
Another anecdote. A couple of years ago I was in California and went on a hike with a club. Randomly, another one of the hikers was a scriptwriter for the show House of Cards. He told me some of the scenarios they had had to go through to make a Congressman into a President, to convert the show from the British political system to the American, and some of them were even less plausible than the one outlined above!
Did our prime Minister really tell MPs that membership "was not a binary choice". The referendum was a binary choice, and that's the problem. The vote was for Leave, but there are many 'Leaves'.
In the UK - a political party could win power by securing 1 million votes - or fail to win power and securing 20 million votes. These are admittedly (nearly) extremes and the most likely scenarios are those where the party wins the popular vote and the election - but this is not guaranteed.
Nah, not a million votes. I think 8m is the absolute minimum. 1m is ~3000 votes in each of 326 seats, or winning 40 seats with 25k votes in each one. I really don't think it would be possible not to win and have 20m votes.
It obviously depends on turnout and the number of parties standing for election.
Assuming an electorate of 46.5 million, a turnout of 50% and 4 major political parties, the minimum vote to win would be achieved by just about winning 326 4-way fights and achieving no votes in the rest. This would give 46.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.25 = ~ 3 million votes.
Assuming a turnout of 80%, the maximum losing vote would be achieved by winning just under half the seats with 100% of the vote and just losing the remaining seats to another strong party, with the other two parties failing to gain any votes. This would give 46.5 * 0.8 * 0.75 = ~ 27 million votes.
In the UK - a political party could win power by securing 1 million votes - or fail to win power and securing 20 million votes. These are admittedly (nearly) extremes and the most likely scenarios are those where the party wins the popular vote and the election - but this is not guaranteed.
Nah, not a million votes. I think 8m is the absolute minimum. 1m is ~3000 votes in each of 326 seats, or winning 40 seats with 25k votes in each one. I really don't think it would be possible not to win and have 20m votes.
Theoretically, you could win with just 326 votes (in which a single voter cast their vote in each of 326 constituencies) and win zero seats with 23m (with a 100% turnout and just failing in every seat, each of which is contested by only two parties).
In practice, I agree that with the current party make-up, 8m is about as low as you could go. Were the Lib Dems, UKIP, Greens and perhaps others to all make gains in vote share, giving some kind of Belgian situation, then a party might win with 23-25% of the vote, if sufficiently well concentrated. On a low turnout, that might be 6m or so.
The reverse would be a return to the 1950s, which is not wholly inconceivable outside of Scotland: two big parties and high turnouts. In that case, 15m might easily be a losing total.
Despite being the most pacific and sweet looking person I always get stopped by security at airports - setting off alarms everywhere, despite taking everything off which could possibly trigger them. It is becoming quite tiresome having to strip off every time. It's getting to the stage where I'm just going to go to the airport in my nightie, bring my clothes and get dressed after I've had security clearance.
My 'favourite' experience was having to unpack everything, including unwrapping the Christmas presents my wife had carefully wrapped for my mother, at Southampton Airport before flying to Alderney.
That seems a bit harsh, security obviously got out of the wrong side of the bed that day. – My ‘favourite’ anecdote was packing my father off to Qatar to visit my sister and her husband, they’d ask him to bring some brewing kit so his luggage was stuffed full of large plastic bags of dried hops and enough heart pills to keep a pharmacy going for months. – Security opened his suitcase, closed it again and waved him through. – It was a different time back then.
I can't imagine Qatar would have been too happy to discover a brewing kit either, if they'd known what it was!
Dubai's 'favourite' item is poker chips or other gambling paraphernalia. Several friends have had them confiscated.
Saudi Arabia is surely the worst? If, for whatever reason, they find drugs in your luggage there's every chance you might actually be executed.
There's a few places where they execute those with drugs.
Saudi's favourite is the laptop search, have prepared several 'clean' laptops for colleagues visiting there, with nothing installed except the VPN client which we enable when he calls us from his hotel. USA are also fans of searching for data. Don't expect your computer back for weeks or months, if they decide to take a more detailed look at it. The Americans also think an encrypted laptop is automatically suspicious.
Despite being the most pacific and sweet looking person I always get stopped by security at airports - setting off alarms everywhere, despite taking everything off which could possibly trigger them. It is becoming quite tiresome having to strip off every time. It's getting to the stage where I'm just going to go to the airport in my nightie, bring my clothes and get dressed after I've had security clearance.
My 'favourite' experience was having to unpack everything, including unwrapping the Christmas presents my wife had carefully wrapped for my mother, at Southampton Airport before flying to Alderney.
That seems a bit harsh, security obviously got out of the wrong side of the bed that day. – My ‘favourite’ anecdote was packing my father off to Qatar to visit my sister and her husband, they’d ask him to bring some brewing kit so his luggage was stuffed full of large plastic bags of dried hops and enough heart pills to keep a pharmacy going for months. – Security opened his suitcase, closed it again and waved him through. – It was a different time back then.
I can't imagine Qatar would have been too happy to discover a brewing kit either, if they'd known what it was!
Dubai's 'favourite' item is poker chips or other gambling paraphernalia. Several friends have had them confiscated.
Saudi Arabia is surely the worst? If, for whatever reason, they find drugs in your luggage there's every chance you might actually be executed.
There's a few places where they execute those with drugs.
Saudi's favourite is the laptop search, have prepared several 'clean' laptops for colleagues visiting there, with nothing installed except the VPN client which we enable when he calls us from his hotel. USA are also fans of searching for data. Don't expect your computer back for weeks or months, if they decide to take a more detailed look at it.
Did our prime Minister really tell MPs that membership "was not a binary choice". The referendum was a binary choice, and that's the problem. The vote was for Leave, but there are many 'Leaves'.
Leaves on the line, delaying progress to Brexit Central.
"If Trump is impeached, America will be looking at President Pence." I don't know how you work that one out. Bill Clinton was impeached, but there was no President Gore.
I meant looking at in the sense of scrutinising the prospect of, rather than looking directly at the existence of...
The problem with the terms of this bet is that there is just too much to prevent it winning. A successful impeachment requires not just such overwhelming evidence as to get two thirds of the Senate to vote, but for instance not enough overwheming evidence that the President resigns first like Nixon.
Out of 44 Presidents so far a grand total of 0 have been successfully impeached. I'd want odds of at least 45/1 to be tempted.
The problem with the terms of this bet is that there is just too much to prevent it winning. A successful impeachment requires not just such overwhelming evidence as to get two thirds of the Senate to vote, but for instance not enough overwheming evidence that the President resigns first like Nixon.
Out of 44 Presidents so far a grand total of 0 have been successfully impeached. I'd want odds of at least 45/1 to be tempted.
Technically I think both Clinton and Andrew Johnson were successfully impeached? Impeachment is separate from actually being convicted.
Yes - it is the action of starting the process by which a President is removed from power. The vote to start the process (impeachment) has to go through the House. The actual process is done by the Senate. (Again a good example of how the American Constitution has checks and balances in it.) So a President can be impeached but not removed from office.
Gereald R Ford defined "An impeachable offense is whatever a majority of the House of Representatives considers it to be at a given moment in history" (Wikipedia)
So you would have to see whether the bet is that Congress impeaches the President or whether the President is successfully impeached and removed from office. I think the former is very unlikely and the latter very, very, unlikely - almost ona par as to whether it will be a white Christmas this year (usual definition AFAIK is snow falling at mid-day on Christmas day at the London Weather Centre.)
Despite being the most pacific and sweet looking person I always get stopped by security at airports - setting off alarms everywhere, despite taking everything off which could possibly trigger them. It is becoming quite tiresome having to strip off every time. It's getting to the stage where I'm just going to go to the airport in my nightie, bring my clothes and get dressed after I've had security clearance.
My 'favourite' experience was having to unpack everything, including unwrapping the Christmas presents my wife had carefully wrapped for my mother, at Southampton Airport before flying to Alderney.
That seems a bit harsh, security obviously got out of the wrong side of the bed that day. – My ‘favourite’ anecdote was packing my father off to Qatar to visit my sister and her husband, they’d ask him to bring some brewing kit so his luggage was stuffed full of large plastic bags of dried hops and enough heart pills to keep a pharmacy going for months. – Security opened his suitcase, closed it again and waved him through. – It was a different time back then.
I can't imagine Qatar would have been too happy to discover a brewing kit either, if they'd known what it was!
Dubai's 'favourite' item is poker chips or other gambling paraphernalia. Several friends have had them confiscated.
Saudi Arabia is surely the worst? If, for whatever reason, they find drugs in your luggage there's every chance you might actually be executed.
There's a few places where they execute those with drugs.
Saudi's favourite is the laptop search, have prepared several 'clean' laptops for colleagues visiting there, with nothing installed except the VPN client which we enable when he calls us from his hotel. USA are also fans of searching for data. Don't expect your computer back for weeks or months, if they decide to take a more detailed look at it.
I went there once in 2008. It's a ghastly place.
Never again.
Not been there myself, and don't particularly want to. Most of those I do know there are getting paid upwards of $1,000 a day (tax free) for it, which I guess helps things along... Their wives and kids mostly live in Dubai and they come to visit at weekends.
I'm not normally a fan of Guardian editorials, but it's difficult to argue with this assessment:
This week, Mr Johnson gave an interview to the Czech newspaper Hospodářské Noviny that typifies several of his failings. In the interview he dismissed the idea that freedom of movement is a founding EU principle as “bollocks” – language that does Britain’s post-Brexit case no favours. Elsewhere he airily claimed that the UK is likely to leave the EU customs union while wanting to trade freely with the single market afterwards. If that is really the government’s position, he should have given the news to parliament not a newspaper. If it is not, he had no business saying it at all.
What's happening? We know that Boris is no idiot, and he showed during his time as London mayor that he can be pitch perfect when he needs to be. Is it some kind of emotional fallout from the Brexit vote and the subsequent leadership shenanigans? Guilt? Is he almost willing himself to fail? Is it bitterness and he's going out of his way to be the fly in Theresa's Brexit ointment? I don't know...
@DMcCaffreySKY: BREAK: UKIP misspent almost half a million of EU funding on electioneering, and to boost their Brexit campaign - EU audit @SkyNews NEXT.
@DMcCaffreySKY: BREAK: UKIP misspent almost half a million of EU funding on electioneering, and to boost their Brexit campaign - EU audit @SkyNews NEXT.
Here's a scenario that could make impeachment more likely. Again, it occurred to me, but it would have rendered the article too long to include it.
If the Republicans lose control of Congress in the mid-terms, and the Democrats find evidence of abuses of power in the Executive Branch, they could move to impeach both Trump and Pence. That could be very attractive for them, because under the Presidential Succession Act of 1947, the next in line to the Presidency would be the Speaker of the House. As we've assumed that the Democrats have triumphed in the midterms, that would be a Democrat. So effectively, they'd have seized control of the Executive Branch without the need to win a Presidential election.
Very unlikely, especially as they would need 2/3 of Senators to agree to impeach including several Republicans, but not completely impossible ...
The public would surely kick off big style at that (and, as you say, it'd also require the connivance of the GOP senators, which seems improbable in the extreme).
There is of course a degree of precedent to this, when Agnew was forced to resign at a point at which Nixon was vulnerable to impeachment proceedings and when the Dems controlled both House and Senate. In theory, they could have forced a Democrat VP on Nixon and then elevated him to the White House. In practice, they ensured that it was a Republican acceptable to them. In your scenario, I'd expect something of the same: a moderate Republican that the Democrats know and respect, probably from one or other House of Congress.
@DMcCaffreySKY: BREAK: UKIP misspent almost half a million of EU funding on electioneering, and to boost their Brexit campaign - EU audit @SkyNews NEXT.
@DMcCaffreySKY: BREAK: UKIP misspent almost half a million of EU funding on electioneering, and to boost their Brexit campaign - EU audit @SkyNews NEXT.
Oh dear. I find the level of attention paid to me depends on whether I've shaved or not. Apparently I look like a gent when clean shaven, and some sort of smuggler when stubbled...
Best story I ever heard was a pal's Pa who received a stern talking too after having tried to get 6 shot cartridges through security that were in his favourite Barbour.
A friend of mine tells a story about a friend of his who was transporting a technical component, for radar I think, through the US. Because the object was both secret and valuable he carried the component in a case as hand luggage. He had appropriate documentation for security and customs so that he could take in unopened onto an aircraft.
But he met with this security guard who insisted that he had to examine the component, and would not accept the documentation. Anyway this argument resulted in a phone call to a government office who told the security guard to let the friend through, but the guard would not budge. Eventually the friend was given permission by the government office to open the case and let the guard inspect the contents, on the basis that he wouldn't know what he was looking at anyway. The guard opened it up, saw the radiation warning symbol (which is common on radar) and funny looking object and exclaimed "Holy shit! A God damned nuclear torpedo!"
@DMcCaffreySKY: BREAK: UKIP misspent almost half a million of EU funding on electioneering, and to boost their Brexit campaign - EU audit @SkyNews NEXT.
The EU probably have a rule against spending on anything anti-EU. We know they have the same rule for pensions, for example. The same spending but for the Remain campaign would probably be just fine.
Best advice is to treat it as a journey. Try to enjoy the flight, even the odd bumpy bits. When you land, you can relax in Shangri-La and it will have all been worthwhile.
@DMcCaffreySKY: BREAK: UKIP misspent almost half a million of EU funding on electioneering, and to boost their Brexit campaign - EU audit @SkyNews NEXT.
The EU probably have a rule against spending on anything anti-EU. We know they have the same rule for pensions, for example. The same spending but for the Remain campaign would probably be just fine.
UKIP "splurged taxpayers cash, breaking European Union spending rules"
"If the bureau agrees with the conclusion of the external audit, UKIP could be forced to pay back more than €170,000 (£146,185) while not being able to claim hundreds of thousands more.
This comes at a bad time for the embattled party, whose finances are in a poor state, a situation not helped by major party donor Arron Banks threatening to stop funding UKIP."
@DMcCaffreySKY: BREAK: UKIP misspent almost half a million of EU funding on electioneering, and to boost their Brexit campaign - EU audit @SkyNews NEXT.
So that should make the referendum result void.
HMG threw more resources into Remain than any other campaign outside of wartime.
Perhaps an audit of the true spend there is in order?
Best advice is to treat it as a journey. Try to enjoy the flight, even the odd bumpy bits. When you land, you can relax in Shangri-La and it will have all been worthwhile.
Freefall is just like flying, but the landing is the worst bit...
@DMcCaffreySKY: BREAK: UKIP misspent almost half a million of EU funding on electioneering, and to boost their Brexit campaign - EU audit @SkyNews NEXT.
So that should make the referendum result void.
Is today a Brexiteer 'Farage & and his divisive campaign had nothing to do with Leave winning' day? I suspect it might be.
Sky News has been my wife and my main source of news but since Brexit and especially the election of Trump they seem to have had a collective breakdown on balanced reporting to the point we are switching more and more to the BBC as they do seem to be more balanced.
Faisal Islam's reporting is just so pro EU it is comical and today Sarah Jane Mee went off the scale of hectoring Liz Truss to the point that Liz Truss could not get a hearing and it was all about Mee. I share the general opinion that Liz Truss is a poor appointment but that does not excuse the tone of Mee's interviewing technique.
We cling to the hope that so many on Sky and their heads come to the realisation that they need to report fairly, by all means critise Brexit and Trump where it is fair but also provide a balance when there are pro Brexit and even Trump stories.
Best advice is to treat it as a journey. Try to enjoy the flight, even the odd bumpy bits. When you land, you can relax in Shangri-La and it will have all been worthwhile.
Freefall is just like flying, but the landing is the worst bit...
You mean like the guy who fell off the roof of a skyscraper? As he passed each floor he said to himself "So far, so good."
@DMcCaffreySKY: BREAK: UKIP misspent almost half a million of EU funding on electioneering, and to boost their Brexit campaign - EU audit @SkyNews NEXT.
So that should make the referendum result void.
Is today a Brexiteer 'Farage & and his divisive campaign had nothing to do with Leave winning' day? I suspect it might be.
No. Today is Thomas Mair has mental health issues and not a political activist day.
Oh dear. I find the level of attention paid to me depends on whether I've shaved or not. Apparently I look like a gent when clean shaven, and some sort of smuggler when stubbled...
Best story I ever heard was a pal's Pa who received a stern talking too after having tried to get 6 shot cartridges through security that were in his favourite Barbour.
A friend of mine tells a story about a friend of his who was transporting a technical component, for radar I think, through the US. Because the object was both secret and valuable he carried the component in a case as hand luggage. He had appropriate documentation for security and customs so that he could take in unopened onto an aircraft.
But he met with this security guard who insisted that he had to examine the component, and would not accept the documentation. Anyway this argument resulted in a phone call to a government office who told the security guard to let the friend through, but the guard would not budge. Eventually the friend was given permission by the government office to open the case and let the guard inspect the contents, on the basis that he wouldn't know what he was looking at anyway. The guard opened it up, saw the radiation warning symbol (which is common on radar) and funny looking object and exclaimed "Holy shit! A God damned nuclear torpedo!"
That's a good one!
My father once got a call early in the morning to go to Heathrow and bail out a colleague. This was mid '80s. He was taking a prototype electronic device to Europe somewhere, and was under instruction not to have the sensitive electronics go through the scanner as they'd get fried.
The colleague's comment to the security guy of "Don't put that through the scanner, because it will blow up" managed to get half of Heathrow evacuated!
Sky News has been my wife and my main source of news but since Brexit and especially the election of Trump they seem to have had a collective breakdown on balanced reporting to the point we are switching more and more to the BBC as they do seem to be more balanced. Faisal Islam's reporting is just so pro EU it is comical and today Sarah Jane Mee went off the scale of hectoring Liz Truss to the point that Liz Truss could not get a hearing and it was all about Mee. I share the general opinion that Liz Truss is a poor appointment but that does not excuse the tone of Mee's interviewing technique. We cling to the hope that so many on Sky and their heads come to the realisation that they need to report fairly, by all means critise Brexit and Trump where it is fair but also provide a balance when there are pro Brexit and even Trump stories.
I agree. ITV News and C4 News are as bad. We have a collective anti-Brexit line in the broadcast media that are supposed to be impartial. Unfortunately the Govt and CCHQ seem oblivious to the bias being exhibited.
@DMcCaffreySKY: BREAK: UKIP misspent almost half a million of EU funding on electioneering, and to boost their Brexit campaign - EU audit @SkyNews NEXT.
So that should make the referendum result void.
Is today a Brexiteer 'Farage & and his divisive campaign had nothing to do with Leave winning' day? I suspect it might be.
No. Today is Thomas Mair has mental health issues and not a political activist day.
Usually when people have to tell you that they are something, it probably means they aren't.
@DMcCaffreySKY: BREAK: UKIP misspent almost half a million of EU funding on electioneering, and to boost their Brexit campaign - EU audit @SkyNews NEXT.
So that should make the referendum result void.
Clutching at straws. Is it about time you accepted the result and moved on with your life?
Best advice is to treat it as a journey. Try to enjoy the flight, even the odd bumpy bits. When you land, you can relax in Shangri-La and it will have all been worthwhile.
Freefall is just like flying, but the landing is the worst bit...
An old pilot's saying "Flying never killed anyone. It is the sudden deceleration when flying finishes that usually does for you!"
You'll make yourself ill fretting about what you can't control. Take a deep breath and say to yourself ... "I will not fear. Fear is the mind-killer." (Frank Herbert).
Best advice is to treat it as a journey. Try to enjoy the flight, even the odd bumpy bits. When you land, you can relax in Shangri-La and it will have all been worthwhile.
Freefall is just like flying, but the landing is the worst bit...
An old pilot's saying "Flying never killed anyone. It is the sudden deceleration when flying finishes that usually does for you!"
My favourite pilot's saying is that a good pilot is one with exactly the same number of take-offs as landings.
Confirms what many of us suspected. Lazy pollsters not prepared to properly factor this in just to quickly believe that their researchers had filled their quotas. Labour voters are still being over represented by 1% to 3% in the figures.
I think a lot people who have no time for Trump as a person will say, thorough gritted teeth, he was elected by the American people as their president so he must be allowed to see out his term.
They can say that, but they're wrong. Were presidents to be elected by the American people he would be at least 2 million votes short of Hilary Clinton. He'll be elected instead by delegates to a skewed Electoral College. And that, and his consequent lack of legitimacy, is going to be thrown back in his face every time he seeks to do something that isn't in line with popular opinion (or fails to do something that is).
@DMcCaffreySKY: BREAK: UKIP misspent almost half a million of EU funding on electioneering, and to boost their Brexit campaign - EU audit @SkyNews NEXT.
So that should make the referendum result void.
Is today a Brexiteer 'Farage & and his divisive campaign had nothing to do with Leave winning' day? I suspect it might be.
No. Today is Thomas Mair has mental health issues and not a political activist day.
Usually when people have to tell you that they are something, it probably means they aren't.
So next time someone commits an outrage and says they are a Muslim/did it in the name of Islam...
@DMcCaffreySKY: BREAK: UKIP misspent almost half a million of EU funding on electioneering, and to boost their Brexit campaign - EU audit @SkyNews NEXT.
Best advice is to treat it as a journey. Try to enjoy the flight, even the odd bumpy bits. When you land, you can relax in Shangri-La and it will have all been worthwhile.
Freefall is just like flying, but the landing is the worst bit...
An old pilot's saying "Flying never killed anyone. It is the sudden deceleration when flying finishes that usually does for you!"
My favourite pilot's saying is that a good pilot is one with exactly the same number of take-offs as landings.
Flying through the air is perfectly safe as long as you stay away from the edges.
"Past performance is no guarantee of future performance."
Is it possible at the moment to bet the house on a Le Pen win? Betfair's market on the French presidential election is far too small.
As for "past performance", sure, but trite. And it cuts both ways. The belief that Le Pen will win the first round but can't win the second - because of the clothespeg vote - seems to come from a stubborn belief that what happened before will happen again. At least Brexit and the Trump win were more recent, even if in other countries.
The French National Front has received funding from Putin.
Another important fact is that the National Front is now more than a political party. There are figures who are not viewed as party politicians but who are in its scene. It's some kind of "movement". The wind is certainly changing direction in France.
Recent facts suggest many give too much credence to polls. (Maybe I'm stating the obvious?) Someone even wrote before the US election that if the LA Times poll got the result right it would only by accident, since the other polls all agreed on something different. Poor logic. Then after the result - very shortly after it - we had a parade of "experts" saying they now understand where they went wrong (oh yeah), because they've looked at exit and post-election polls. Colour me unconvinced. They're using the same methods they used before to find out where they went wrong with those methods. That won't get them very far.
So they could easily make the same mistakes in France as in Britain and the US. A more qualitative approach is needed. You don't get that by putting multiple choice questions to a sample of people and probably not by putting open questions to them either, unless you lose the "scientific" attitude and approach the whole thing with more of an idea of what's going on - which with the Brexit vote was immigration, immigration, immigration and with the US election was the country being broken. In France I am sad to say that in the minds of a lot of native voters a big issue is "les Arabes", and that issue is amplified by terrorist attacks and by the efforts of the obnoxious Michel Houellebecq. Le Pen is in with a strong chance. It's possible she may even win the first round outright.
Best advice is to treat it as a journey. Try to enjoy the flight, even the odd bumpy bits. When you land, you can relax in Shangri-La and it will have all been worthwhile.
Freefall is just like flying, but the landing is the worst bit...
An old pilot's saying "Flying never killed anyone. It is the sudden deceleration when flying finishes that usually does for you!"
My favourite pilot's saying is that a good pilot is one with exactly the same number of take-offs as landings.
I actually know one civilian test pilot for whom that's not the case!
Also "A good landing is one that you walk away from, a great landing is one where they can use the plane again"
Were presidents to be elected by the American people he would be at least 2 million votes short of Hilary Clinton.
How on earth do you know that? If the electoral system were different, candidates would campaign differently and voters would vote differently. There might, for example, be millions of Californians who would have voted for Trump if they thought it would make a difference. Or there might be millions more who would have voted for Hillary. No-one knows, but the fact is that Trump won fair and square under the rules of the election.
@DMcCaffreySKY: BREAK: UKIP misspent almost half a million of EU funding on electioneering, and to boost their Brexit campaign - EU audit @SkyNews NEXT.
Brexit 2 - The EU strikes back.
It is UKIP. They have a long history of illegal use of their EU expenses and some have gone to jail in the past. Almost as bad as the Labour party in parliament.
@DMcCaffreySKY: BREAK: UKIP misspent almost half a million of EU funding on electioneering, and to boost their Brexit campaign - EU audit @SkyNews NEXT.
So that should make the referendum result void.
Clutching at straws. Is it about time you accepted the result and moved on with your life?
I have accepted the result. We're leaving. I'm looking forward to it.
"If Trump is impeached, America will be looking at President Pence." I don't know how you work that one out. Bill Clinton was impeached, but there was no President Gore.
I meant looking at in the sense of scrutinising the prospect of, rather than looking directly at the existence of...
Perhaps it could have been clearer though.
I think so. On the whole though, many thanks for a very well-informed analysis.
Were presidents to be elected by the American people he would be at least 2 million votes short of Hilary Clinton.
How on earth do you know that? If the electoral system were different, candidates would campaign differently and voters would vote differently. There might, for example, be millions of Californians who would have voted for him if they thought it would make a difference. Or there might be millions more who would have voted for Hillary. No-one knows, but the fact is that Trump won fair and square under the rules of the election.
We've experienced the same in this country, 1951 & 1974. We didn't change our system then, the USA won't change it's system now.
How on earth do you know that? If the electoral system were different, candidates would campaign differently and voters would vote differently. There might, for example, be millions of Californians who would have voted for Trump if they thought it would make a difference. Or there might be millions more who would have voted for Hillary. No-one knows, but the fact is that Trump won fair and square under the rules of the election.
Exactly, it's a stupid argument, a bit like taking FPTP results and extrapolating what would have happened under AV. If the system was different people would vote differently.
I think a lot people who have no time for Trump as a person will say, thorough gritted teeth, he was elected by the American people as their president so he must be allowed to see out his term.
They can say that, but they're wrong. Were presidents to be elected by the American people he would be at least 2 million votes short of Hilary Clinton. He'll be elected instead by delegates to a skewed Electoral College. And that, and his consequent lack of legitimacy, is going to be thrown back in his face every time he seeks to do something that isn't in line with popular opinion (or fails to do something that is).
Trump won fair and square, according to the rules of the contest. In the same way that the Conservatives did in 1951 and Labour did in February 1974. He got the votes where it mattered.
If the US had another voting system, say proportional representation, then people would vote differently.
@DMcCaffreySKY: BREAK: UKIP misspent almost half a million of EU funding on electioneering, and to boost their Brexit campaign - EU audit @SkyNews NEXT.
Brexit 2 - The EU strikes back.
Funny how the EU is able to put so much effort into UKIP's 'over spend'.
Presumably this figure will be included amongst the 4.4% of the total budget that is misused, in the Annual Accounts.
Do liberals and whinging Remainers need grief counselling?
Just asking, as I am getting concerned.
First 15 minutes of Sky news at 11.00 all anti UKIP and leaving the EU stories
The report that alleged UKIP used EU money to help the leave campaign is very amusing
I don't think SkyNews realise how much they are damaging their brand by their biased position. Once anyone learns not to trust them, there's no going back.
@DMcCaffreySKY: BREAK: UKIP misspent almost half a million of EU funding on electioneering, and to boost their Brexit campaign - EU audit @SkyNews NEXT.
Were presidents to be elected by the American people he would be at least 2 million votes short of Hilary Clinton.
How on earth do you know that? If the electoral system were different, candidates would campaign differently and voters would vote differently. There might, for example, be millions of Californians who would have voted for Trump if they thought it would make a difference. Or there might be millions more who would have voted for Hillary. No-one knows, but the fact is that Trump won fair and square under the rules of the election.
And as Trump himself pointed out, his campaign would have been different.
Were presidents to be elected by the American people he would be at least 2 million votes short of Hilary Clinton.
How on earth do you know that? If the electoral system were different, candidates would campaign differently and voters would vote differently. There might, for example, be millions of Californians who would have voted for him if they thought it would make a difference. Or there might be millions more who would have voted for Hillary. No-one knows, but the fact is that Trump won fair and square under the rules of the election.
We've experienced the same in this country, 1951 & 1974. We didn't change our system then, the USA won't change it's system now.
I think if it were based on popular vote then Trump would have managed to win by squeezing all of those Johnson voters in safe blue and red states who were voting with their conscience because they didn't like him personally. As I said many times yesterday, if Trump doesn't do a terrible job then he will walk the popular vote in 2020 - returning GOP/Johnson voters, no McMullin, very slow growth in Hispanic voters compared to the Dem victory model of 11m naturalised citizens via an amnesty, disproportionate spending of fiscal stimulus in poor areas with a high proportion of black voters, four more years of Hispanic Americans become American Hispanics, especially given how patriotic Trump's presidential style is going to be. I think all of those factors will add up to a huge win for Trump in 2020, if he decides to run. The main ones are GOP/Johnson voters going home and much slower growth in Hispanic voters in TX, AZ and CA. In 2020, I don't see Trump losing Orange County, for example.
I think a lot people who have no time for Trump as a person will say, thorough gritted teeth, he was elected by the American people as their president so he must be allowed to see out his term.
They can say that, but they're wrong. Were presidents to be elected by the American people he would be at least 2 million votes short of Hilary Clinton. He'll be elected instead by delegates to a skewed Electoral College. And that, and his consequent lack of legitimacy, is going to be thrown back in his face every time he seeks to do something that isn't in line with popular opinion (or fails to do something that is).
Trump won fair and square, according to the rules of the contest. In the same way that the Conservatives did in 1951 and Labour did in February 1974. He got the votes where it mattered.
If the US had another voting system, say proportional representation, then people would vote differently.
How on earth do you know that? If the electoral system were different, candidates would campaign differently and voters would vote differently. There might, for example, be millions of Californians who would have voted for Trump if they thought it would make a difference. Or there might be millions more who would have voted for Hillary. No-one knows, but the fact is that Trump won fair and square under the rules of the election.
Exactly, it's a stupid argument, a bit like taking FPTP results and extrapolating what would have happened under AV. If the system was different people would vote differently.
The evidence from SV elections is that AV results would not be greatly different from FPTP.
PR is a whole different ballgame, as would be a move from the Electoral College to a national vote in the US.
If he becomes even more unpopular than he is currently (1 million + behind in the popular vote now) then Republicans in the legislature are going to start to get nervous.
It must really nark Republican grandees that Trump was able to win where it mattered.
How can you become Less Popular as the vote is counted? Surely every vote for you makes you more popular.
Trump 2016: 60,913,096 votes (nyt - still to call Michigan BTW)
That is 10 million MORE than George W Bush in 2000
OK, if you want to make comparisons with Bush.
Bush in 2000 was 543,000 behind Gore in the popular vote and 15 votes ahead in the Electoral College.
Trump in 2016 is going to be upwards of 2 million behind Clinton in the popular vote and yet likely to end up 74 votes ahead in the Electoral College.
2016 is a failure of epic proportions on any measure of legitimacy or democratic fairness. Ironic that it happened to the benefit of a candidate who claimed the system was fixed against him.
Comments
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/17/trump-transition-team-announces-five-year-lobbying-ban-for-appointees.html
https://twitter.com/PeatWorrier/status/799188730686959617
I spent the rest of the flight convinced my connection in New York was going to be changed to Gitmo.
Also got stopped in the 70s driving across the Rockies in the US, checking for certain foodstuffs even internally within the US.
The opening scene had all the references to 9/11 removed which made the opening scene incomprehensible, if you hadn't watched the film at the cinema.
Curiously they removed all the porn scenes from the film too, which made people think, why have they just brought Martin Freeman for a pointless scene at the end.
Dubai's 'favourite' item is poker chips or other gambling paraphernalia. Several friends have had them confiscated.
If the Republicans lose control of Congress in the mid-terms, and the Democrats find evidence of abuses of power in the Executive Branch, they could move to impeach both Trump and Pence. That could be very attractive for them, because under the Presidential Succession Act of 1947, the next in line to the Presidency would be the Speaker of the House. As we've assumed that the Democrats have triumphed in the midterms, that would be a Democrat. So effectively, they'd have seized control of the Executive Branch without the need to win a Presidential election.
Very unlikely, especially as they would need 2/3 of Senators to agree to impeach including several Republicans, but not completely impossible ...
Impeachment is separate from actually being convicted.
In that case the Republican party would be completely broken.
Might see a spike in unregistered lobbyists.
"If Trump is impeached, America will be looking at President Pence." I don't know how you work that one out. Bill Clinton was impeached, but there was no President Gore.
This kind of war-gaming is fun though.
Another anecdote. A couple of years ago I was in California and went on a hike with a club. Randomly, another one of the hikers was a scriptwriter for the show House of Cards. He told me some of the scenarios they had had to go through to make a Congressman into a President, to convert the show from the British political system to the American, and some of them were even less plausible than the one outlined above!
The referendum was a binary choice, and that's the problem. The vote was for Leave, but there are many 'Leaves'.
Assuming an electorate of 46.5 million, a turnout of 50% and 4 major political parties, the minimum vote to win would be achieved by just about winning 326 4-way fights and achieving no votes in the rest. This would give 46.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.25 = ~ 3 million votes.
Assuming a turnout of 80%, the maximum losing vote would be achieved by winning just under half the seats with 100% of the vote and just losing the remaining seats to another strong party, with the other two parties failing to gain any votes. This would give 46.5 * 0.8 * 0.75 = ~ 27 million votes.
In practice, I agree that with the current party make-up, 8m is about as low as you could go. Were the Lib Dems, UKIP, Greens and perhaps others to all make gains in vote share, giving some kind of Belgian situation, then a party might win with 23-25% of the vote, if sufficiently well concentrated. On a low turnout, that might be 6m or so.
The reverse would be a return to the 1950s, which is not wholly inconceivable outside of Scotland: two big parties and high turnouts. In that case, 15m might easily be a losing total.
Saudi's favourite is the laptop search, have prepared several 'clean' laptops for colleagues visiting there, with nothing installed except the VPN client which we enable when he calls us from his hotel. USA are also fans of searching for data. Don't expect your computer back for weeks or months, if they decide to take a more detailed look at it. The Americans also think an encrypted laptop is automatically suspicious.
Never again.
Perhaps it could have been clearer though.
Gereald R Ford defined "An impeachable offense is whatever a majority of the House of Representatives considers it to be at a given moment in history" (Wikipedia)
So you would have to see whether the bet is that Congress impeaches the President or whether the President is successfully impeached and removed from office. I think the former is very unlikely and the latter very, very, unlikely - almost ona par as to whether it will be a white Christmas this year (usual definition AFAIK is snow falling at mid-day on Christmas day at the London Weather Centre.)
Their wives and kids mostly live in Dubai and they come to visit at weekends.
This week, Mr Johnson gave an interview to the Czech newspaper Hospodářské Noviny that typifies several of his failings. In the interview he dismissed the idea that freedom of movement is a founding EU principle as “bollocks” – language that does Britain’s post-Brexit case no favours. Elsewhere he airily claimed that the UK is likely to leave the EU customs union while wanting to trade freely with the single market afterwards. If that is really the government’s position, he should have given the news to parliament not a newspaper. If it is not, he had no business saying it at all.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/16/the-guardian-view-on-boris-johnson-he-is-causing-too-much-needless-chaos
What's happening? We know that Boris is no idiot, and he showed during his time as London mayor that he can be pitch perfect when he needs to be. Is it some kind of emotional fallout from the Brexit vote and the subsequent leadership shenanigans? Guilt? Is he almost willing himself to fail? Is it bitterness and he's going out of his way to be the fly in Theresa's Brexit ointment? I don't know...
There is of course a degree of precedent to this, when Agnew was forced to resign at a point at which Nixon was vulnerable to impeachment proceedings and when the Dems controlled both House and Senate. In theory, they could have forced a Democrat VP on Nixon and then elevated him to the White House. In practice, they ensured that it was a Republican acceptable to them. In your scenario, I'd expect something of the same: a moderate Republican that the Democrats know and respect, probably from one or other House of Congress.
But he met with this security guard who insisted that he had to examine the component, and would not accept the documentation. Anyway this argument resulted in a phone call to a government office who told the security guard to let the friend through, but the guard would not budge. Eventually the friend was given permission by the government office to open the case and let the guard inspect the contents, on the basis that he wouldn't know what he was looking at anyway. The guard opened it up, saw the radiation warning symbol (which is common on radar) and funny looking object and exclaimed "Holy shit! A God damned nuclear torpedo!"
Best advice is to treat it as a journey. Try to enjoy the flight, even the odd bumpy bits. When you land, you can relax in Shangri-La and it will have all been worthwhile.
I'm all heart, aren't I?
"If the bureau agrees with the conclusion of the external audit, UKIP could be forced to pay back more than €170,000 (£146,185) while not being able to claim hundreds of thousands more.
This comes at a bad time for the embattled party, whose finances are in a poor state, a situation not helped by major party donor Arron Banks threatening to stop funding UKIP."
Perhaps an audit of the true spend there is in order?
Faisal Islam's reporting is just so pro EU it is comical and today Sarah Jane Mee went off the scale of hectoring Liz Truss to the point that Liz Truss could not get a hearing and it was all about Mee. I share the general opinion that Liz Truss is a poor appointment but that does not excuse the tone of Mee's interviewing technique.
We cling to the hope that so many on Sky and their heads come to the realisation that they need to report fairly, by all means critise Brexit and Trump where it is fair but also provide a balance when there are pro Brexit and even Trump stories.
My father once got a call early in the morning to go to Heathrow and bail out a colleague. This was mid '80s. He was taking a prototype electronic device to Europe somewhere, and was under instruction not to have the sensitive electronics go through the scanner as they'd get fried.
The colleague's comment to the security guy of "Don't put that through the scanner, because it will blow up" managed to get half of Heathrow evacuated!
You'll make yourself ill fretting about what you can't control. Take a deep breath and say to yourself ... "I will not fear. Fear is the mind-killer." (Frank Herbert).
Brexit 2 - The EU strikes back.
Just asking, as I am getting concerned.
As for "past performance", sure, but trite. And it cuts both ways. The belief that Le Pen will win the first round but can't win the second - because of the clothespeg vote - seems to come from a stubborn belief that what happened before will happen again. At least Brexit and the Trump win were more recent, even if in other countries.
Consider John Stuart Mill's excellent analysis of how to argue for causation.
Breitbart is planning to set up shop in France.
The French National Front has received funding from Putin.
Another important fact is that the National Front is now more than a political party. There are figures who are not viewed as party politicians but who are in its scene. It's some kind of "movement". The wind is certainly changing direction in France.
Recent facts suggest many give too much credence to polls. (Maybe I'm stating the obvious?) Someone even wrote before the US election that if the LA Times poll got the result right it would only by accident, since the other polls all agreed on something different. Poor logic. Then after the result - very shortly after it - we had a parade of "experts" saying they now understand where they went wrong (oh yeah), because they've looked at exit and post-election polls. Colour me unconvinced. They're using the same methods they used before to find out where they went wrong with those methods. That won't get them very far.
So they could easily make the same mistakes in France as in Britain and the US. A more qualitative approach is needed. You don't get that by putting multiple choice questions to a sample of people and probably not by putting open questions to them either, unless you lose the "scientific" attitude and approach the whole thing with more of an idea of what's going on - which with the Brexit vote was immigration, immigration, immigration and with the US election was the country being broken. In France I am sad to say that in the minds of a lot of native voters a big issue is "les Arabes", and that issue is amplified by terrorist attacks and by the efforts of the obnoxious Michel Houellebecq. Le Pen is in with a strong chance. It's possible she may even win the first round outright.
Also "A good landing is one that you walk away from, a great landing is one where they can use the plane again"
http://order-order.com/2016/11/17/249582/
Fox
Past presidential appointments by week https://t.co/X26M0RvBfM
The report that alleged UKIP used EU money to help the leave campaign is very amusing
If the US had another voting system, say proportional representation, then people would vote differently.
Presumably this figure will be included amongst the 4.4% of the total budget that is misused, in the Annual Accounts.
I don't think SkyNews realise how much they are damaging their brand by their biased position.
Once anyone learns not to trust them, there's no going back.
Rome also had a thousand years of tradition, history and common cultural memory to fall back on by the third (Christian) century.
PR is a whole different ballgame, as would be a move from the Electoral College to a national vote in the US.
Bush in 2000 was 543,000 behind Gore in the popular vote and 15 votes ahead in the Electoral College.
Trump in 2016 is going to be upwards of 2 million behind Clinton in the popular vote and yet likely to end up 74 votes ahead in the Electoral College.
2016 is a failure of epic proportions on any measure of legitimacy or democratic fairness. Ironic that it happened to the benefit of a candidate who claimed the system was fixed against him.