Like Labour they are learning ground game isn't everything. You actually need to give people something to vote FOR.
And Trump shows that you do not have to be specific (indeed it helps not to be, as you cannot get grilled on it) or consistent or even truthful. Post truth politics is really quite liberating.
It's not possible to leave the EU? What a load of twaddle.
It's possible to leave the EU. But it's not possible to leave the EU and be better off. Or rather it is, but the voters would hate the things you have to do to make that happen even more than they hated the EU.
That's only requested later on. The first request was a plan just to leave the EU
I think the voters are expecting some kind of alternative arrangements to be in place, rather than just leaving the EU and saying "fuck it".
Yeah, which HMG are working on. After article 50 there will be two years of negotiations on the subject.
It's not possible to leave the EU? What a load of twaddle.
It's possible to leave the EU. But it's not possible to leave the EU and be better off. Or rather it is, but the voters would hate the things you have to do to make that happen even more than they hated the EU.
That's only requested later on. The first request was a plan just to leave the EU
I think the voters are expecting some kind of alternative arrangements to be in place, rather than just leaving the EU and saying "fuck it".
Yeah, which HMG are working on. After article 50 there will be two years of negotiations on the subject.
The negotiations can conclude in a transition agreement which will also extend the A50 deadline while we work on the long-term arrangement and apply indefinitely.
It's not possible to leave the EU? What a load of twaddle.
It's possible to leave the EU. But it's not possible to leave the EU and be better off. Or rather it is, but the voters would hate the things you have to do to make that happen even more than they hated the EU.
That's only requested later on. The first request was a plan just to leave the EU
I think the voters are expecting some kind of alternative arrangements to be in place, rather than just leaving the EU and saying "fuck it".
Yeah, which HMG are working on. After article 50 there will be two years of negotiations on the subject.
The negotiations can conclude in a transition agreement which will also extend the A50 deadline while we work on the long-term arrangement and apply indefinitely.
Alain Juppé is favourite at Betfair to be the next president of France, but according to this poll he is likely to lose the Republicans' primary (which is open to anyone who pays two euros and will probably go to a second round) to François Fillon, who's at half his price at Betfair. I doubt Juppé will run for president if he loses the primary.
The only poll, and that shows Fillon getting into the second round at all. Much more likely, at present, with one debate left, is Juppé v Sarkozy in the second round of the primary.
None of them would stand as independents!
Yes a Sarkozy / Juppé second round remains the most likely, which would mean an easy Juppé victory. The momentum for Fillon is very strong but comes very late.
The difference with Sarkozy is that Fillon has a path to victory if he manages to enter the second round. But the path is quite narrow.
His hope is to dominate the Thursday debate, and convince the supporters of the small candidates that he is the only realistic way to avoid the Juppé/Sarkozy duel. This could work with Le Maire supporters (convinced by Le Maire's "renewal" message) but he has already squeezed part of his support. He has no chance to get the Kosciusko-Morizet supporters but he has to attract as many suppporters as he can from Poisson (traditional catholics) and Copé (law and order message).
As mentioned by others on this thread, the turnout will be key and could produce the main surprise: if centrists and centre-left voters satisfied with a Macron candidacy do not vote on Sunday, Juppé will be in trouble.
Michel Barnier's negotiating approach for the EU appears to favour not settling anything at all that's permanent as part of the Article 50 talks. We'll haggle over a transition agreement.Whereas the UK government wants to get an all encompassing settlement in place.
If the agreement is term limited with guillotine clauses it could depress confidence in investments the UK. eg banks can continue to trade on the current basis, for a fee, until 2025. After that it will depend on what's negotiated in treaty talks. When it comes to investment decisions, companies could think Britain is just not worth the uncertainty, we'll go to France or the Netherlands instead
A possible reason for accepting Barnier's approach would be that the transition agreement is good enough from our point of view not to walk away from it and end up with the so-called WTO default,*. It may also be that the EU side is constitutionally and practically constrained from agreeing to British proposals in the timeframe, even if they wanted to.
* Which would also have to be negotiated with the EU and others. Negotiations that would be complicated by not having a prior agreement with the EU.
Comments
The difference with Sarkozy is that Fillon has a path to victory if he manages to enter the second round. But the path is quite narrow.
His hope is to dominate the Thursday debate, and convince the supporters of the small candidates that he is the only realistic way to avoid the Juppé/Sarkozy duel.
This could work with Le Maire supporters (convinced by Le Maire's "renewal" message) but he has already squeezed part of his support. He has no chance to get the Kosciusko-Morizet supporters but he has to attract as many suppporters as he can from Poisson (traditional catholics) and Copé (law and order message).
As mentioned by others on this thread, the turnout will be key and could produce the main surprise: if centrists and centre-left voters satisfied with a Macron candidacy do not vote on Sunday, Juppé will be in trouble.
Clinton 61,917k
Trump 60,913k
http://edition.cnn.com/election
REMAIN 48%
Michel Barnier's negotiating approach for the EU appears to favour not settling anything at all that's permanent as part of the Article 50 talks. We'll haggle over a transition agreement.Whereas the UK government wants to get an all encompassing settlement in place.
If the agreement is term limited with guillotine clauses it could depress confidence in investments the UK. eg banks can continue to trade on the current basis, for a fee, until 2025. After that it will depend on what's negotiated in treaty talks. When it comes to investment decisions, companies could think Britain is just not worth the uncertainty, we'll go to France or the Netherlands instead A possible reason for accepting Barnier's approach would be that the transition agreement is good enough from our point of view not to walk away from it and end up with the so-called WTO default,*. It may also be that the EU side is constitutionally and practically constrained from agreeing to British proposals in the timeframe, even if they wanted to.
* Which would also have to be negotiated with the EU and others. Negotiations that would be complicated by not having a prior agreement with the EU.