" Sir Brian, a former president of the British Medical Association, has been one of the pioneers in the statistical analysis of hospital mortality. By comparing the death rates in different departments within hospitals with the expected fatality rate after adjusting for demographics, he has assessed the performance of the individual trusts.
The worst performing since 2006 has been Basildon and Thurrock where, with a mortality rate 19 per cent higher than might normally be expected, he estimates that there have 1,600 excess deaths. He does not expect to see this in tomorrow’s report, however.
“It is very hard data and it has sort of been accepted over the years,” Sir Brian said of his “hospital standardised mortality ratios”. He added: “I would like them to give the figures but I don’t think they would like to. I think they thought they could [publish the report] without doing anything contentious.” http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/health/news/article3816586.ece
"people believe a lot of things that aren't true."
Twas ever thus. Politics is about impressions not about facts. And that's why n one believes politicians. If the electorate's experience is different, and it usually is, because politicians put forward what they want to be true without much regard for the facts, they will ignore the other version of the "facts".
The famous aphorism ... "A man convinced against his will, retains his own conviction still" remains true
Some people believe Obama is a Muslim, some people believe the locals have left Boston Lincs.
What you do about that is a different matter.
Some people use the number of English people in Boston 2001 & 2011 to support their argument without quoting the number of immigrants that arrived in the same period
Given that I was refuting the QT womans direct claim about locals leaving Boston that would seem fair. You've posted her lies for months now, did it not cross your mind to check out whether what she was saying is actually true?
(the maternity hospital stuff is also lies by the way)
No answer on the % of English people in Boston in 2011 compared with 2001 then?
I guess it doesn't suit your argument.
What's the point of debating with you on this? You think mass immigration is a fantastic thing, and nothing that anybody affected by it says would deter you. You use one set of statistics to try and win an argument in Boston, and a different set in Dagenham, because you don't want to believe that people living in the areas concerned are unhappy with mass immigrations affect on their lives.
You wont accept people leaving Dagenham as being anything to do with immigration, so even if there were less white British people in Boston in 2011 than there were in 2001, I have no reason to believe you would accept that was the reason there either. I am sure you would say it was an ageing population that was to blame.
Boston residents feel their town is overcrowded because of immigrants, and have voted in a way that backs that up, but people like Mary Beard and yourself that don't live there tell them they are wrong.
Here are some more local liars who have never had it so good
"people believe a lot of things that aren't true."
The famous aphorism ... "A man convinced against his will, retains his own conviction still" remains true
Some people believe Obama is a Muslim, some people believe the locals have left Boston Lincs.
What you do about that is a different matter.
Some people use the number of English people in Boston 2001 & 2011 to support their argument without quoting the number of immigrants that arrived in the same period
Given that I was refuting the QT womans direct claim about locals leaving Boston that would seem fair. You've posted her lies for months now, did it not cross your mind to check out whether what she was saying is actually true?
(the maternity hospital stuff is also lies by the way)
Doesn't that make an assumption that the 'local' she refers to means English-born? (*) It would be possible for you both to be right, if locals had moved out whilst other English had moved into the area. We need proper stats on this, if they are available.
I know Boston a little, and there are problems (especially in some outlying areas) with pressure due to immigrants. That is not a reason to stop immigration, but at the very least it is a reason to increase resources into those areas to relieve the pressure. If we are going to have increased levels of immigration (as you seem to want) then we need to plan for it.
Labour rather failed to do that. Indeed, they utterly failed to foresee the numbers coming in, yet alone plan for it.
An utter failure that some communities are paying for.
(*) Edit: This is probably a perception issue. People move from all areas regularly; there is a churn of population inside the country. People see someone moving away for reasons of education / work / family, and tend to put their own prejudices on the reasons for that move. Few, if any, will be moving due to immigration, however it might be a side-issue, or immigration may be forcing it due to lack of work / schools etcetera.
Irene Handl playing the cello in the lunchtime restaurant scene and the organ in the cinema scene.
Marvellous! Although not a classic - I was watching CSI the other day and the same Alsation dog turns up at least 5x in different episodes as an airport drug dog, a police dog, a pet that's shot saving its owner plus twice as a random family dog that doesn't have a speaking part. I assume it has some canine equity card!
Been away from here for a bit watching Le Tour, backed Froome before the Ventoux at 1.35, thats long gone now.
I see UKIP are floating back up to their high teen poll ratings. As I've said before I thought their 'true' value was around 14%, but this will go higher with the Euro elections.
Are any bookies offering odds on Boston & Skeggy ? I think UKIP can win that in a GE and will back them to do so if the price is right.
I'm laying England for my starter for ten with the Lords test.
My abiding thought from an excellent Trent Bridge test match is the Aussies can't keep relying on last wicket partnerships to pull the irons out of the fire. Tailenders are so called for a reason.
England or a draw for Lords. Do you know the weather forecast for later this week ??
And the Open Championship starts on Thursday, even if it is at Muirfield ....
I normally have a decent punt at the Open. Any thoughts PBers ??
We haven’t had a Populus poll so far this year since their contract with the Times ended. Today they re-enter the field, but using an online methodology. Topline figures are CON 31%, LAB 38%, LDEM 13%, UKIP 10%.
Obviously there are no changes since their previous poll given the shift in method – which Populus themselves explain here. It’s worth reading in full if you’re interested in polling methods, but to give a quick summary of the changes, parallel testing by Populus found that they couldn’t produce comparable online results using past vote weighting, so they have moved from past vote weighting to party ID weighting (the approach currently used by YouGov). Populus have also dropped their reallocation of don’t knows, the old spiral of silence adjustment, on the basis that interviewer effect shouldn’t be a factor in online polls.
I'm laying England for my starter for ten with the Lords test.
My abiding thought from an excellent Trent Bridge test match is the Aussies can't keep relying on last wicket partnerships to pull the irons out of the fire. Tailenders are so called for a reason.
England or a draw for Lords. Do you know the weather forecast for later this week ??
And the Open Championship starts on Thursday, even if it is at Muirfield ....
I normally have a decent punt at the Open. Any thoughts PBers ??
I think England could still well win but Evens is a bit short for the start considering that all 3 results I think there are very possible. It is the shortest of all the results hence my reasoning.
''Labour rather failed to do that. Indeed, they utterly failed to foresee the numbers coming in, yet alone plan for it. An utter failure that some communities are paying for.''
Disagree. I believe Labour knew perfectly well the numbers of immigrants coming in. They saw immigrants as a ready made Labour voters and didn;t care about the impact on existing communities.
And also of course mass immigration was the opposite of what white middle England wanted.
We sometimes underestimate how much hatred of a certain type of English person drives labour policy.
@SouthamObserver here are my guesses at UKIP best bets in the GE2015
S Bas & E Thurrock Thurrock Bromsgrove Halesown & Rowley Regis Staffordshire Moorlands Dudley North Morley & Outwood Newcastle Under Lyme** Stoke on Trent South Telford Walsall North Walsall South West Bromwich West Wolverhampton NE Barking Dag & Rain Plymouth Moor View
Next Bests
Broadland Great Yarmouth Peterborough West Suffolk Burton Cannock Chase Ludlow Stourbridge Bexhill & Battle Dartford Dover Folkestone & Hythe Hastings & Rye Spelthorne N Warks Brirmingham Northfield Stoke on Trent Central Stoke on Trent North West Brom East Birmingham Yardley Solihull Hx & Upm Erith & Thamesmead Bournemouth East Bridgewater & W Somerset Christchurch East Devon Kingswood Newton Abbot Poole SE Cornwall Torridge & W Devon Totnes N Devon Wells
Irene Handl playing the cello in the lunchtime restaurant scene and the organ in the cinema scene.
She wrote a rather good novel - The Sioux. Her background was interesting - a rather grand Austrian family, very different from the sorts of parts she was known for playing.
The big problem is not statistics, they are accurate or inaccurate. It's the faulty interpretation of selective statistics that poisons the pond.
And that's where the press, politicians and political activists poo in the water.
No wonder no one believes them.
When MPs expenses were a hot topic - I recall the Mark Reckon's blog suggesting that safe seat MPs were more likely to be culprits. This got a lot of attention at the time/seemed plausible and it ended up being picked apart on R4's More or Less radio prog as there are simply too many variables in play.
It was a really good example of something that looked believable being statistically difficult to prove.
I'm laying England for my starter for ten with the Lords test.
My abiding thought from an excellent Trent Bridge test match is the Aussies can't keep relying on last wicket partnerships to pull the irons out of the fire. Tailenders are so called for a reason.
England or a draw for Lords. Do you know the weather forecast for later this week ??
And the Open Championship starts on Thursday, even if it is at Muirfield ....
I normally have a decent punt at the Open. Any thoughts PBers ??
Irene Handl playing the cello in the lunchtime restaurant scene and the organ in the cinema scene.
Marvellous! Although not a classic - I was watching CSI the other day and the same Alsation dog turns up at least 5x in different episodes as an airport drug dog, a police dog, a pet that's shot saving its owner plus twice as a random family dog that doesn't have a speaking part. I assume it has some canine equity card!
The Handl scenes are not a continuity error just used for comic effect.
Such a period piece of middle class manners, mores and etiquette with of course the frisson of social scandal.
''Labour rather failed to do that. Indeed, they utterly failed to foresee the numbers coming in, yet alone plan for it. An utter failure that some communities are paying for.''
Disagree. I believe Labour knew perfectly well the numbers of immigrants coming in. They saw immigrants as a ready made Labour voters and didn;t care about the impact on existing communities.
And also of course mass immigration was the opposite of what white middle England wanted.
We sometimes underestimate how much hatred of a certain type of English person drives labour policy.
A fair enough view, but I'd prefer to put it down to incompetence rather than malice.
It's such a long time since I've seen "Brief Encounter". I asked Mrs Jack W and she just smiled at me in that charming knowing fashion that woman do when they have an ace in the hole !!
Irene Handl playing the cello in the lunchtime restaurant scene and the organ in the cinema scene.
Marvellous! Although not a classic - I was watching CSI the other day and the same Alsation dog turns up at least 5x in different episodes as an airport drug dog, a police dog, a pet that's shot saving its owner plus twice as a random family dog that doesn't have a speaking part. I assume it has some canine equity card!
The Handl scenes are not a continuity error just used for comic effect.
Such a period piece of middle class manners, mores and etiquette with of course the frisson of social scandal.
I adore Brief Encounter - its heart-rending stuff at the end with hubby and his slippers.
''Labour rather failed to do that. Indeed, they utterly failed to foresee the numbers coming in, yet alone plan for it. An utter failure that some communities are paying for.''
Disagree. I believe Labour knew perfectly well the numbers of immigrants coming in. They saw immigrants as a ready made Labour voters and didn;t care about the impact on existing communities.
And also of course mass immigration was the opposite of what white middle England wanted.
We sometimes underestimate how much hatred of a certain type of English person drives labour policy.
A fair enough view, but I'd prefer to put it down to incompetence rather than malice.
Will there be the head of a lesser honest Burnham on the wall ?
"The Tories intend to use the Keogh report, out tomorrow, to — in the words of one Number 10 insider — give Labour ‘both barrels’ over the NHS. As one Tory minister puts it, ‘Labour’s argument about Mid-Staffs is that it is one isolated, bad case. Keogh disproves that.’"
"But it’ll be interesting to see if the Tories’ attacks this week, which contrast with Cameron’s far more consensual approach to the publication of the Francis Report into Mid-Staffs, have any effect or not."
But it’ll be interesting to see if the Tories’ attacks this week, which contrast with Cameron’s far more consensual approach to the publication of the Francis Report into Mid-Staffs, have any effect or not."
I wouldn't hold your breath. Labour are teflon on this issue. Nothing sticks to it.
''Labour rather failed to do that. Indeed, they utterly failed to foresee the numbers coming in, yet alone plan for it. An utter failure that some communities are paying for.''
Disagree. I believe Labour knew perfectly well the numbers of immigrants coming in. They saw immigrants as a ready made Labour voters and didn;t care about the impact on existing communities.
And also of course mass immigration was the opposite of what white middle England wanted.
We sometimes underestimate how much hatred of a certain type of English person drives labour policy.
Bringing in white immigrants from a socially conservative country to undermine white socially conservative middle England
Interesting conspiracy theory.
How were employers persuaded to go along with it?
Conspiracy theory my a...
Labour wanted mass immigration to make UK more multicultural, says former adviser
Labour threw open Britain's borders to mass immigration to help socially engineer a "truly multicultural" country, a former Government adviser has revealed.
''Labour rather failed to do that. Indeed, they utterly failed to foresee the numbers coming in, yet alone plan for it. An utter failure that some communities are paying for.''
Disagree. I believe Labour knew perfectly well the numbers of immigrants coming in. They saw immigrants as a ready made Labour voters and didn;t care about the impact on existing communities.
And also of course mass immigration was the opposite of what white middle England wanted.
We sometimes underestimate how much hatred of a certain type of English person drives labour policy.
Bringing in white immigrants from a socially conservative country to undermine white socially conservative middle England
Interesting conspiracy theory.
How were employers persuaded to go along with it?
Why are you ignoring immigration from non-EU countries?
It's easy to be relaxed about excess immigration when you don't live there (and I don't live in Boston anymore, I can return to sunny Merseyside after visiting family).
The Poles, Lithuanians, and the Portuguese do work very hard - that's never been a criticism. The farmers think they're marvellous, of course. Although it might be better for local jobs if they weren't. They're Catholics (good), they're drinkers (not so good) and there are a lot of them (the main criticism).
But the town has always been farmer-friendly and that may be why they shoved a by-pass straight through the middle of town.
Comments
Irene Handl playing the cello in the lunchtime restaurant scene and the organ in the cinema scene.
" Sir Brian, a former president of the British Medical Association, has been one of the pioneers in the statistical analysis of hospital mortality. By comparing the death rates in different departments within hospitals with the expected fatality rate after adjusting for demographics, he has assessed the performance of the individual trusts.
The worst performing since 2006 has been Basildon and Thurrock where, with a mortality rate 19 per cent higher than might normally be expected, he estimates that there have 1,600 excess deaths. He does not expect to see this in tomorrow’s report, however.
“It is very hard data and it has sort of been accepted over the years,” Sir Brian said of his “hospital standardised mortality ratios”. He added: “I would like them to give the figures but I don’t think they would like to. I think they thought they could [publish the report] without doing anything contentious.” http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/health/news/article3816586.ece
One hopes it is not Sir Thomas Beecham conducting.
I guess it doesn't suit your argument.
What's the point of debating with you on this? You think mass immigration is a fantastic thing, and nothing that anybody affected by it says would deter you. You use one set of statistics to try and win an argument in Boston, and a different set in Dagenham, because you don't want to believe that people living in the areas concerned are unhappy with mass immigrations affect on their lives.
You wont accept people leaving Dagenham as being anything to do with immigration, so even if there were less white British people in Boston in 2011 than there were in 2001, I have no reason to believe you would accept that was the reason there either. I am sure you would say it was an ageing population that was to blame.
Boston residents feel their town is overcrowded because of immigrants, and have voted in a way that backs that up, but people like Mary Beard and yourself that don't live there tell them they are wrong.
Here are some more local liars who have never had it so good
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-vjLczdK74
I know Boston a little, and there are problems (especially in some outlying areas) with pressure due to immigrants. That is not a reason to stop immigration, but at the very least it is a reason to increase resources into those areas to relieve the pressure. If we are going to have increased levels of immigration (as you seem to want) then we need to plan for it.
Labour rather failed to do that. Indeed, they utterly failed to foresee the numbers coming in, yet alone plan for it.
An utter failure that some communities are paying for.
(*) Edit: This is probably a perception issue. People move from all areas regularly; there is a churn of population inside the country. People see someone moving away for reasons of education / work / family, and tend to put their own prejudices on the reasons for that move. Few, if any, will be moving due to immigration, however it might be a side-issue, or immigration may be forcing it due to lack of work / schools etcetera.
A: Fathers Day in the Labour party.
I see UKIP are floating back up to their high teen poll ratings. As I've said before I thought their 'true' value was around 14%, but this will go higher with the Euro elections.
Are any bookies offering odds on Boston & Skeggy ? I think UKIP can win that in a GE and will back them to do so if the price is right.
England or a draw for Lords. Do you know the weather forecast for later this week ??
And the Open Championship starts on Thursday, even if it is at Muirfield ....
I normally have a decent punt at the Open. Any thoughts PBers ??
We haven’t had a Populus poll so far this year since their contract with the Times ended. Today they re-enter the field, but using an online methodology. Topline figures are CON 31%, LAB 38%, LDEM 13%, UKIP 10%.
Obviously there are no changes since their previous poll given the shift in method – which Populus themselves explain here. It’s worth reading in full if you’re interested in polling methods, but to give a quick summary of the changes, parallel testing by Populus found that they couldn’t produce comparable online results using past vote weighting, so they have moved from past vote weighting to party ID weighting (the approach currently used by YouGov). Populus have also dropped their reallocation of don’t knows, the old spiral of silence adjustment, on the basis that interviewer effect shouldn’t be a factor in online polls.
Disagree. I believe Labour knew perfectly well the numbers of immigrants coming in. They saw immigrants as a ready made Labour voters and didn;t care about the impact on existing communities.
And also of course mass immigration was the opposite of what white middle England wanted.
We sometimes underestimate how much hatred of a certain type of English person drives labour policy.
S Bas & E Thurrock
Thurrock
Bromsgrove
Halesown & Rowley Regis
Staffordshire Moorlands
Dudley North
Morley & Outwood
Newcastle Under Lyme**
Stoke on Trent South
Telford
Walsall North
Walsall South
West Bromwich West
Wolverhampton NE
Barking
Dag & Rain
Plymouth Moor View
Next Bests
Broadland
Great Yarmouth
Peterborough
West Suffolk
Burton
Cannock Chase
Ludlow
Stourbridge
Bexhill & Battle
Dartford
Dover
Folkestone & Hythe
Hastings & Rye
Spelthorne
N Warks
Brirmingham Northfield
Stoke on Trent Central
Stoke on Trent North
West Brom East
Birmingham Yardley
Solihull
Hx & Upm
Erith & Thamesmead
Bournemouth East
Bridgewater & W Somerset
Christchurch
East Devon
Kingswood
Newton Abbot
Poole
SE Cornwall
Torridge & W Devon
Totnes
N Devon
Wells
She wrote a rather good novel - The Sioux. Her background was interesting - a rather grand Austrian family, very different from the sorts of parts she was known for playing.
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/5014133/Life-is-Devine-Disgraced-MP-flees-to-Irish-bolthole.html
Malteo Manassero.
http://youtu.be/ajC4Az4wscc
Such a period piece of middle class manners, mores and etiquette with of course the frisson of social scandal.
And what incompetence.
I'd pick Bresnan for the next test and drop Bairstow for Onions to give Cook a further bowling option.
A tail of Prior/Bresnan/Broad/Swann/Onions/Anderson easily makes up for that sixth batsman, in my view.
Hhmmmm .....
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2009/10/the-neather-clarification/
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/james-forsyth/2013/07/conservatives-ramp-up-the-pressure-on-andy-burnham/
Will there be the head of a lesser honest Burnham on the wall ?
"The Tories intend to use the Keogh report, out tomorrow, to — in the words of one Number 10 insider — give Labour ‘both barrels’ over the NHS. As one Tory minister puts it, ‘Labour’s argument about Mid-Staffs is that it is one isolated, bad case. Keogh disproves that.’"
"But it’ll be interesting to see if the Tories’ attacks this week, which contrast with Cameron’s far more consensual approach to the publication of the Francis Report into Mid-Staffs, have any effect or not."
I wouldn't hold your breath. Labour are teflon on this issue. Nothing sticks to it.
Conspiracy theory my a...
Labour wanted mass immigration to make UK more multicultural, says former adviser
Labour threw open Britain's borders to mass immigration to help socially engineer a "truly multicultural" country, a former Government adviser has revealed.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/6418456/Labour-wanted-mass-immigration-to-make-UK-more-multicultural-says-former-adviser.html
Do we even know how many of the 3 million are EU / non EU first world (ie aussies etc) / non EU third world?
It's easy to be relaxed about excess immigration when you don't live there (and I don't live in Boston anymore, I can return to sunny Merseyside after visiting family).
The Poles, Lithuanians, and the Portuguese do work very hard - that's never been a criticism. The farmers think they're marvellous, of course. Although it might be better for local jobs if they weren't. They're Catholics (good), they're drinkers (not so good) and there are a lot of them (the main criticism).
But the town has always been farmer-friendly and that may be why they shoved a by-pass straight through the middle of town.
Great point,this is what I've been trying telling tim and the rest of the pb la la,lets tip toe through the tulips your a racist ranters.