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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If current polling levels continue then UKIP must be in with a good chance of getting MPs
The significant feature of the weekend polling was that three of the 4 firms reporting had such large shares for UKIP – not much down on what we were seeing in the immediate aftermath of the party’s spectacular local elections performance in May
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But is that really going to happen? Maybe – maybe not. Who knows?
Anyone'd think this was a betting site with such insightful questions.
They won't.
Post the Euros next year the UKIP VI will decrease dramatically. It always does.
(I say this as someone who hopes I am wrong.)
That threat will play long and hard at the Scottish referendum, where UKIP want to amend the Scottish parliament into a parish council (not just Tony Blair!) and simply brushing them off as not being a viable threat in a 2015 election so do not worry Scotland will be very hard to justify in light of the millions of people who will have voted for them in deepest Surrey, Hampshire and Lincolnshire and perhaps saw them WIN!
Stay in Britain, get UKIP will be a powerful line at the referendum.
No wonder UK Together are running away from Farage, he is toxic to their case.
Bad enough being led by unelected Tories, what about an unelected UKIP coalition with whoever?
Good grief!
One thing I'm wondering about this: The LibDems have tended to poll very weakly in mid-term, then pick up support during the actual election. Why do people think that is, and why would or wouldn't it the same thing apply to UKIP?
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/pressroom/content/20130521IPR08702/html/Next-European-Parliament-elections-to-be-brought-forward-to-May-2014
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2014
Surely that is a nightmare scenario for Conservative councillors?
Latest 2015 GE ARSE projection to be released at 9.00am ....
Stuart Dickson - 'Post the Euros next year the UKIP VI will decrease dramatically. It always does.' wishful thinking, it used to decrease because the Tories were in opposition who we used to think were actually Tories. Get my drift?
Tim - 'We should be getting an ICM and a MORI this week, we'e not had a phone poll for ages, which will give a better idea.' Two other phone pollsters that do not prompt UKIP. Yes it will give us a better idea of the fact that these phone pollsters are out of date and cannot handle 4 party politics with their current methodology.
(*) Alternatively, to give the parliament time to pick the new Commission president to reflect the result of the elections.
Most votes:
UKIP 4/5 (Ladbrokes)
Lab 7/4 (Hills)
Con 7/1 (Hills)
LD 125/1 (Hills)
Most votes - match bet (Ladbrokes)
UKIP 4/7
Con 5/4
None 8/13 (Paddy Power)
One to Five 2/1 (Hills)
Over Five 5/1 (Hills)
Therefore, according to current market prices, it is twice as likely that UKIP get their first MP (2/1) as it is than the Tories win an overall majority (4/1).
Titters ....
Meanwhile the drains up on the NHS continues a pace - I'm very pleased about this development, there seems to be very many examples of system abuse here for convenience of the hospital staff.
" Hospitals will today be told to review the treatment of every patient who has been on the controversial Liverpool Care Pathway after an independent review found examples of abuse across the NHS.
The Department of Health will tell hospitals to refer doctors to the General Medical Council if they find the procedures have been abused.
The pathway is used to "manage" the death of terminally ill NHS patients. However, the Neuberger inquiry, which will be published today, has heard allegations that patients have been unnecessarily sedated and denied food and water.
The inquiry is expected to say that there were "numerous examples of poor implementation and worrying standards in care" and that in some cases patients have been put on the pathway without their families being informed.
The pathway is now being phased out in a bid to restore public trust in the way the NHS treats terminally ill patients..." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/10178763/Treatment-of-every-Liverpool-Pathway-patient-to-be-reviewed.html
Has it never crossed your mind that there will be a lot of people reading this who were not reading PB back in 2008-10? Could you not assist those people by giving a brief summary of your previous ARSE projections so that they may assess their usefulness?
For example, what was your ARSE projection in July 2008? ie. at the same point in the political cycle.
"TORY MPs will today launch a new drive to re-style themselves as the party of the workers, not the rich.
The campaign will target working class and ethnic minority voters outside the South East in a desperate bid to boost support before the 2015 election.
A group of MPs will urge PM David Cameron to show he is on the side of hard-up Brits by making the cost of living and jobs his top priorities.
Ideas include increasing the minimum wage, currently £6.19 an hour, and slashing taxes for employers so they can pay for it.
The group wants fuel duty to be frozen until at least 2015, and costly renewable energy targets axed to slash heating bills. It says councils should get new powers to reduce benefit sanctions for unemployed Brits, to take local job cuts into account.
And to help more people get on the housing ladder, cities in the North would be allowed to build on green belt land if locals were in favour. MPs hope the ideas — set out in a pamphlet published today — will be included in the Conservatives’ election manifesto.
Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5013737/Tory-MPs-want-to-be-restyled-as-party-of-workers.html#ixzz2Z5nu6HDX
The implied percentage probability of 4/1= 20%
During the summer we need a thread on betting mathematics.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jul/15/ken-clarke-danny-alexander-mandelson-eu
I'm not sure what our (unwritten) constitution says about enshrining socialism. Could Dave enshrine balanced budgets? This is precisely one of the key downfalls of the EU. They have tried to embed socialism within its constitution - and that is not compatible with democracy, where people may have a different political opinion.
Labour's mantra: 'Ask not what you can do for your country, ask what you can squeeze out of it'. Losers.
http://survation.com/2013/05/ukip-won-in-8-westminster-constituencies-last-thursday/
Constituency UKIP 'majority' in local election May 2013 Current MP Party Majority Party holding seat in 2001
South Thanet 7.46% Laura Sandys Con 7617 Lab
North Thanet 5.92% Sir Roger Gale Con 13528 Con
Sittingbourne and Sheppey 5.70% Gordon Henderson Con 12383 Lab
Forest of Dean 0.90% Mark Harper Con 11064 Lab
Aylesbury 2.58% David Lidington Con 12618 Con
Great Yarmouth* (over LAB) 2.25% Brandon Lewis Con 4276 Lab
Boston & Skegness 11.18% Mark Simmonds Con 12426 Con
East Worthing and Shoreham 1.72% Tim Loughton Con 11105 Con
Castle Point 0.32% Rebecca Harris Con 7632 Con
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton 7.35% Nick Gibb Con 13063 Con
I am very nervous about Spain, and several other states. I am seriously considering significantly reducing my stock market exposure and putting some capital on money market. I just have a bad feeling that nearly every stock exchange on the planet seems to be overpriced at the moment.
As I have stated previously, I consider gold to be underpriced and have been a buyer these last few months, but I am probably over-exposed to gold as well, so prefer money market.
Neither am I much concerned by the ignorance of those foolish enough not to have been cognisant of Mike's fine publication in 2008 or even earlier.
As for not being "the most glorious person on the planet" I'll have to agree with you - That prerogative is held by Mrs Jack W - I can pick em !!
Any more dull questions Stuart ??
Cyprus 6/4 (PP)
Greece 2/1 (Lad)
Slovenia 7/1 (Lad)
Italy 12/1 (PP)
Spain 12/1 (PP)
Portugal 18/1 (SJ)
Rather alarming headline in the Sun, which I thought referred to the Liverpool Pathway, but instead to sorting out NHS management at failing trusts:
"Deaths Squads"
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5013633/Deaths-squads-deployed-at-14-NHS-hospitals-over-13000-lost-lives.html
Trevor Kavenagh not sympathetic to Andy Burnham:
"The political blame game is already under way with former Health Secretary Andy Burnham predictably fingering Tory “cuts”.
...It was on his watch that the Mid-Staffs catastrophe exploded, destroying the public’s implicit faith in Labour’s proudest creation, the cradle-to-grave National Health Service.
The Mid-Staffs deaths of 1,200 men and women who should have lived shocked the nation — but Whitehall civil servants did everything possible to block an inquiry.
“We do not feel a full public inquiry would be in the interests of patients and the public,” wrote one self-serving official.
Mr Burnham took the advice. The Francis Inquiry was carried out in private.
0-5% 5/2
5-10% 6/4
10-15% 4/1
15-20% 7/1
20-25% 14/1
25+% 16/1
"In other words, what was wrong with the Mitt Romney incarnation of Republicanism was not that it did not make itself explicitly inclusive of Hispanic voters, but that it failed to address the concerns of any working-class groups – whether they were white or from racial minorities. His campaign presented itself as almost entirely the voice of entrepreneurial capitalism rather than speaking for working people (like the Reagan Democrats who once voted Republican in huge numbers).
So, on the Kristol analysis, what is needed is not a racially based recasting of the party philosophy but a clear statement of the basic economic message that should resonate with all hard-working voters who want to improve their lives, whether they are white or Latino. (In fact, the second George Bush to win the presidency was very successful in capturing the Hispanic vote, perhaps because he did not present himself as a successful businessman who championed wealth, but as someone who believed in individual achievement.)
Now, this problem – and the proposed solution – has a clear resonance in Britain. Many of our ethnic minority populations are also aspirational and hard-working. The Asian community is renowned for its belief in strong families and the value of education. Such people should be natural Tory voters.
Indeed, the traditional party message could very well have more personal relevance for them than it does for many white working-class Britons: as in the US, which now also has a welfare-dependency problem among the settled population, new migrants here are even more likely to want to be independent and self-determining. The answer is not to scrap the old values but to restate them with conviction and courage to a fresh audience who have every reason to adopt them..." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/10177373/Modern-voters-are-very-receptive-to-the-Rights-old-economic-values.html
The number of companies close to insolvency dropped sharply in the second quarter, underpinning hopes of a sustainable recovery in the UK’s economy.
This is the third quarter in a row that the number of companies on the verge of insolvency has fallen, according to Begbies Traynor, the restructuring specialists whose red flag alert monitors early signs of distress in small and medium-sized companies across the UK.
"No, just the same one: what was your ARSE projection in July 2008? "
......................................................................
There was no July 2008 ARSE projection.
However for the sake of peace and quiet here is the final projection for the last national outing of the ARSE and the actual results - 2012 US Presidential election including "The JackW Swing State Nine", Electoral College and Vote Share :
State .. ARSE .. Actual ..
New Hampshire - O+4 .. O+5.5
Virginia - O+3 .. O+3.9
North Carolina - R+2 .. R+2
Florida - R+1 .. O+0.8
Iowa - O+4 .. O+5.4
Ohio - O+4 .. O+3
Wisconsin - O+6 .. O+7
Colorado - O+2 .. O+5.4
Nevada - O+6 .. O+7
EC - ARSE 303/235 .. Actual 332/206 .. ARSE narrowly incorrect on Florida 29 EC votes.
Vote Share - ARSE - 51/48 .. Actual 51.1/47.2
Not unduly shabby one might say ?!?
@Michael_Heaver UKIP
Everyone who wants to look at real results of Green utopian dream should look at Brighton where rubbish fills the streets.
"On policies ranging from Europe to welfare and immigration, Labour and its traditional support base have drifted apart. Miliband and Balls are far less interested in the views of the grandchildren of the Durham miners than Attlee and Morrison were. The Labour Party now represents the lawyers of Islington more than the ordinary working people in Durham.
That new reality is reflected in the voting figures. Only 57 per cent of skilled working-class voters voted at the last election, compared with 76 per cent of middle-class voters. The level of detachment from today’s Labour Party is illustrated by the fact that only 29 per cent of the skilled working class voted Labour – it was well over 50 per cent for Tony Blair’s first two victories..." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10179042/Heres-how-the-Conservatives-can-win-back-the-working-class.html
"Spain's Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is facing renewed calls to resign after a newspaper published text messages allegedly linking him to the man at the centre of a secret payments scandal.
The El Mundo report said Mr Rajoy sent words of support to Luis Barcenas, former treasurer of the governing Popular Party (PP).
Mr Barcenas is in custody facing trial for corruption and tax fraud. He denies the allegations.
Mr Rajoy, too, denies any wrongdoing."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23310930
"Portugal's borrowing costs jump as political tensions rise
Yields on 10-year bonds hit an intraday high of 7.9% before easing back, while the Lisbon stock market closed down by 1.6%.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23289622
Latest Bond Rate 7.52... C
I was just scanning a BBC news article (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23308050) on women offenders and rehabilitation when I came across a link to the loathsome Corston Report.
It's a bit old but if memory serves it recommended that almost no women (barring murderers/rapists) should go to prison and that women offenders should otherwise live in groups of 20-30 in the community and spend their time shopping/cooking, because prisons are evil and masculine institutions designed for evil men.
Funny how when it comes to men having the huge majority of boardroom positions some want quotas for women, but the huge disparity in prisoners (regarding gender) leads some to think women should almost never go to prison.
Countdown - 18 minutes .....
I asked him if he knew any UKIP policies, apart from BOO. 'None; its just a general feeling', he said.
Can UKIP turn around this problem? Because there is no logical basis for this anti feeling, it must be possible. How? Endorsements from respected people would help, and that must be a runner.
Mike Smithson making money out of UKIP doing well is a straw in the wind.
Thing is, then instead of a protest party, with plenty of votes, at least in mid-term, UKIP ends up one more A in NOTA.
Latest 2015 GE ARSE Projection :
Con 290 .. Lab 280 .. LibDem 40 .. SNP 13 .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. Ukip 2 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 1 .. Speaker 1
Hung Parliament - Conservatives Short By 36.
I can't think of an obvious one right now, but it might become easier when Labour finalize all the cuts they're not going to reverse. Maybe there's an issue like benefits for disabled people you can campaign on. Or how about animal rights? There's a plausibly UK vs Foreign angle there (remember the protests at East Coast ports against British calves being taken to cruel conditions on Dutch farms?) but it would challenge the conventional swivel-eyed stereotypes.
"So they suggest "all benefits to teenage mothers should be made on the condition of them living with their parents or in supervised hostel accommodation"."
Now where on earth could they have picked this idea up from?!
The coverage UKIP attracts on the BBC is probably the biggest issue - the Tories who were against the EU were rubbished for over a decade and still get a very hard time/painted as loons. Until the BBC changes it's ways [which is extremely unlikely], it'll be an uphill struggle.
Only issues like the injustice over fostering cut through the bollox.
Kippers have many potentially popular policies - such as allowing a smoking room in a pub etc, but they get almost no coverage.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23306092
Sounds much harsher than £26,000.
So you're offering worse than evens on UKIP winning a seat at the GE? What can I say except, no thanks.
The ability of small parties (sorry Ukippers) to gain seats whilst the big two (sorry yellow peril) slug it out is a historical fact.
Get a grip "tim" .... go milk a few cows or take a gander at "Farmers Weekly" but kindly desist from commenting on political projections that you don't have the brains to deal with !!
Moo, moo .....
"Good cartoon on Guido's site."
If you're not a right wing nutter with the IQ of a gnat there's NOTHING interesting on Guido's site
So bloody funny I think "tim" should abandon farming and do stand up comedy !!
The previous ARSE projection published on 1st July has Ukip on 3 seats. They've dropped one .... a bit like you.
Facts aren't your strong point. Stick to smears, half truths and getting MODERATED on a continuous basis. You do those very well.
getting (for example) basingstoke ukip to mention immigrants less than 50 times on their homepage might also make them look less swivelly
Why would someone who thought Ukip would get a seat take your bet when they can get 11/5 they win a seat with no caveats?
http://youtu.be/7QYCTDXq56w
EDL protesting outside a mosque, Farage shows up nearby, gives a speech about how the British value freedom of conscience and everybody is free to practice their own religion, walks to the mosque with the imam past the EDL nutjobs, something like that.
But yeah, it's a bit of a delicate balancing act.
Your inability to grasp some simple historical electoral facts is surely no surprise as you seem to see all elections through the prism of your anti Conservative bile.
If you can prize yourself away from this months issue of the Cheshire Gentleman Farmer & Pig Breeders Gazette you will note that since the Feb 1974 election that small parties have gained seats outwith the main battle.
Dust your grey matter down and do the research.
http://www.economicvoice.com/nigel-farage-ukip-condemns-defacing-of-muslim-gravestones/50038143#axzz2Z6MS2IX5
http://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/109396/nigel-farage-west-wrong-iran-sanctions
"They should make sure everyone sees this. sums up the divide between the establishment and UKIP."
When I see that clip of the girl saying her Grandparents were Polish but that now the Poles are flooding her neighbourhood they should be kicked out (Presumably not her Grandparents?) I just get depressed.
My Great grandparents were immigrants which makes me very aware that if everyone was as selfish as that lady I wouldn't be here.
"Lloyd’s TSB bi-annual survey of companies shows firms expect to boost spending on machinery and take on more staff over the next six moths, with the East Midlands the most exuberant region and small firms enjoying the biggest jump.
Animal spirits are highest in the manufacturing sector, a sign that coalition policies aimed at rebalancing the economy towards industry are starting to bear fruit.
The report says the UK confidence index has jumped 11 points to 30pc over the past six months. It is now well above its historic average of 21pc.
Some 50pc of firms expect sales to grow in the second half of 2013, with just 14pc bracing for a fall. “Businesses are clearly beginning to regain confidence about future trading prospects, after years of hesitation and concern,” said David Oldfield from Lloyds Banking Group."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10178991/Britain-shakes-off-global-gloom-as-business-confidence-surges.html
It is entirely possible that 13% for a protest party during mid-term when the traditional protest party is part of coalition government is an overestimate of how UKIP will poll when the question of who governs the nation comes up again next time. There's very little actual evidence that there's been some major transformation: Even in the Council Elections UKIP+BNP polled the same as UKIP+BNP polled in 2009 European Elections a year before the last general election. And we know what a success that was for high-flying Farage.
Which 13?
In order to get to 13 Westminster seats the SNP would have to start winning places like Edinburgh West, from 4th place! (Admittedly we hold the Holyrood seat, but still...)
Either that or else JackW is predicting a partial collapse of the SLAB vote under Ed Miliband. Sub 34%, from 42% under Gordon Brown.
Ladbrokes go:
Labour 4/7
Con 2/1
LibDem 6/1
He said LD - I said CON
The LD candidate, Sal Brinton, did make it to Parliament but as a life peer.
Is there any evidence that Poles who moved here recently aren't assimilating?
The same charges were made against Jews at the time.
The story of the lady in the QT clip followed by the results in the Lincolnshire locals?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b036tsn9/live
Too many Ukip for "tim" .... too many SNP for "Stuart Dickson" .... What next ??? .... "Neil" says 1 Green one too many !!
Signed :
Exasperated of Auchentennach
I'm still flummoxed by that result. The ARSE computers still regales at that one - The computer it says "no"
6/1 on the second placed LibDems looks inviting notwithstanding their present polling position. Having said that the 4/7 on Labour is awful.
Will the punters stick with nanny and keep the Tory. They might do a 1992 on us all ??
Lib Dem the value .... but open me up and you'll find Watford and Margaret Beckett carved on my heart !!
The idea of comparing the vote share from a set of council elections with European elections is ridiculous. UKIP have previously done very well at EU elections, for obvious reasons, but have previously been criticised for not translating those votes into votes in other elections, such as those for the councils, which would enable them to build up local strength for a challenge for MP seats. Matching their previous EU election performance at the locals is a vast step forward for UKIP.
On the face of it Watford should be good for the LDs. They have the elected mayor who has gone on to get re-elected but I think 3-way marginals are going to be challenging for the yellows. It was LAB up to 2010 when they finished 3rd
How would you suggest measuring that? I'm assuming people who lived there before saying how it has affected their lives doesn't count, along with a big vote for a party that wants to end mass immigration?
But it's a reasonable question to ask I think. ow would you suggest measuring assimilation?
The Ernst & Young Item Club says the UK economy is “on the mend” and will see strong growth in the next three years on the back of rising consumer spending, house prices and business investment.
The EY Item Club summer forecast shows gross domestic product growth of 1.1 per cent this year, 2.2 per cent next year and 2.6 per cent in 2015 far outstripping the forecasts of the Office for Budget Responsibility. The OBR predicts growth of 0.6 per cent this year, just 1.3 per cent next year and 2.3 per cent in 2015.
It means the Government’s budget deficit could be far smaller than the £120bn predicted at the end of 2013 and could reduce more quickly.
The economy grew by 0.3 per cent in Q1 2013 after a drop of 0.1 per cent in 2012, despite a 0.7 per cent boost in Q3 2012 on the back of the London Olympics.
EY predicts consumer spending will grow by 1.6 per cent this year but the percentage of salaries put into savings will drop to 5.6 per cent compared to 6.3 per cent last year.
The report forecasts one million people moving home this year with rapid growth in house prices of 2.3 per cent, 5.5 per cent next year and a massive 6.3 per cent in 2015. It credits the funding for lending scheme and Government’s Help to Buy scheme for a growing housing recovery.
Business investment has dropped 34 per cent since 2008 but is set to bounce back with expected expected growth of 8.1 per cent next year, 9.4 per cent in 2015 and 7.5 per cent in 2016.
The report also expects UK exports to increase by 1.2 per cent this year and 4.6 per cent in 2014, signalling a rebalancing of the UK economy.
EY Item chief economic adviser Peter Spencer says: “It is looking much more positive and we are unlikely to see a repeat of 2011 when a recovery in confidence was crushed by the Euro crisis.
“Spending on the high street is holding up nicely, housing market transactions are beginning to gather pace and, perhaps most significantly, the global economy also appears to be on the mend. In fact, it is the first time in many months where we can see balanced growth in the economy.”
I should imagine that all the LD effort will be going into neighbouring St. Albans where a superb candidate put on 11% in 2010 and got very close.
See http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/e35.stm
All of this depends which seats are on the target list and it could be that neither make that.