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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump card. Shuffling the deck on Brexit

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  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    On a general point, I remain to be convinced the British public will delight in a settlement that essentially sees the UK throwing its lot in with Trump's America.

    Of course they won't. It's why the clever Brexiters on here have been so rattled by the Golden Lift photo.
    The game's up, isn't it?

    Obama has his P45 and will be booking his new claim interview at Jobcentre Plus in January.

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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,897
    edited November 2016
    MikeK said:

    Obama getting stroppy with Trump. Sez "I'm still the President", and then says what he thinks Trump will do, re Nato. I see a bit of a clash here. ;)
    https://twitter.com/politico/status/798270559935033344

    Obama can say what he likes. He's yesterday's man and these final two months really are the greatest example of "in office but not in power".

    They certainly treat their Presidents better than we treat our PM's. Day after a general election here the losing party/PM is out!

    We don't faff about for two months...
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:



    If Pax Americana ends then we'll need a Pax Europa. Which in practical terms means a Pax Germanica. We aren't a million miles away from actually asking the Germans to rearm. They've the wealth, population and industrial mass to lead the EU's defence of it's eastern borders. But it would be a hell of a psychological and political switch ( as well as taking time ).

    Nah. We asked the Germans to rearm in 1949, and they did.

    West German forces formed the backbone of NATO forces on the Rhine for almost 40 years.
    Don't be silly. Germany is deliberately and rightly a military pigmy relative to it's size and wealth. But that is/was part of the deal with Pax Americana. If Pax American ends then all is in flux. And as you are well aware free Europe's front line is now much further west than the Rhine. There is simply more Europe to defend these days.
    I'm not being silly. I'm simply challenging your assertion that asking the Germans to rearm is a big deal, and a huge psychological/political switch.

    We asked them to do it within 4 years of Hitler's death. They did, and it wasn't a big deal.

    Hmm - Germany created a defence force. It spends comparatively nothing on defence. As Europe's richest, most populous country it should by rights have its biggest and most powerful military, as a permanent seat on the Security Council. A German military capability in line with its financial might and number of inhabitants would dwarf what we have. Are we really comfortable with that? What would Germany's neighbours think?

    No nukes, no UNSC seat. Simple.

    Why no nukes for Germany in a post NATO world? Trump has no problems with friendly countries developing them.

    Whichever party tries to develop Nukes in Germany might find winning tough! They want to shut down the civilian programme over safety fears, a military programme seems like a non-starter. Especially given the €70-80bn in development costs and €3-4bn in running costs plus importation of weapons grade plutonium from France or the UK.

    A post-NATO world with Russia on the doorstep changes everything. If Iran and North Korea can do it, so can Germany.

    Come on, be realistic. There isn't any world where Germans who have forced the government to shut down nuclear power plants on the basis of safety will ever allow for nuclear weapons to be made.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    MikeK said:
    "historic US-Russia relationship"

    Hmm, ermm.
    I can't think of any historical relationships between those two apart from hostilities with a brief exception in the first year of the Bush W. administration.
    Need to go back a bit further.
    Sounds like a game of Diplomacy.
  • Options
    MikeK said:

    Obama getting stroppy with Trump. Sez "I'm still the President", and then says what he thinks Trump will do, re Nato. I see a bit of a clash here. ;)
    https://twitter.com/politico/status/798270559935033344

    Taps microphone....sniff sniff....WROOOOOOOONNNNNGGGGGG....says Trump ;-)
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    glw said:

    weejonnie said:

    Panorama allowing falsehoods to be presented unchallenged, such as us born citizens will be deported & the border will be totally closed.

    TBH - are you surprised? The BBC is still in the Denial Stage.
    For journalists from the broadly left wing, liberal, metropolitan media the last 18 months has had three inexplicable events. A Conservative majority, Leave winning, and Trump winning. They have been blindsided by these events that "should not have happened". You do have to wonder how many more unlikely things will occur before they realise that maybe they haven't been doing a very good job of reporting.
    The left wing media that includes the Mail, Express, Sun and Telegraph?
    The left wing media that includes the BBC, ITV, Sky and Channel 4 and which provides 90%+ of our broadcast news.
    It is the broadcast media that has been bindsided
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:



    If Pax Americana ends then we'll need a Pax Europa. Which in practical terms means a Pax Germanica. We aren't a million miles away from actually asking the Germans to rearm. They've the wealth, population and industrial mass to lead the EU's defence of it's eastern borders. But it would be a hell of a psychological and political switch ( as well as taking time ).

    Nah. We asked the Germans to rearm in 1949, and they did.

    West German forces formed the backbone of NATO forces on the Rhine for almost 40 years.
    Don't be silly. Germany is deliberately and rightly a military pigmy relative to it's size and wealth. But that is/was part of the deal with Pax Americana. If Pax American ends then all is in flux. And as you are well aware free Europe's front line is now much further west than the Rhine. There is simply more Europe to defend these days.
    I'm not being silly. I'm simply challenging your assertion that asking the Germans to rearm is a big deal, and a huge psychological/political switch.

    We asked them to do it within 4 years of Hitler's death. They did, and it wasn't a big deal.

    Hmm - Germany created a defenceeally comfortable with that? What would Germany's neighbours think?

    No nukes, no UNSC seat. Simple.

    Why no nukes for Germany in a post NATO world? Trump has no problems with friendly countries developing them.

    Whichever party tries to develop Nukes in Germany might find winning tough! They want to shut down the civilian programme over safety fears, a military programme seems like a non-starter. Especially given the €70-80bn in development costs and €3-4bn in running costs plus importation of weapons grade plutonium from France or the UK.

    A post-NATO world with Russia on the doorstep changes everything. If Iran and North Korea can do it, so can Germany.

    Come on, be realistic. There isn't any world where Germans who have forced the government to shut down nuclear power plants on the basis of safety will ever allow for nuclear weapons to be made.

    I am being realistic. The world is changing very profoundly and very quickly. I can absolutely see Germany developing a nuclear capability. How else does it defend itself if the US withdraws?

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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    David Martosko
    Anyone who believes Donald Trump (whose 3 adult kids married Jews and whose grandchildren are Jewish) would hire an anti-semite is an idiot.

    Andrew Breitbart was Jewish too. I can't get over how silly some here are.
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    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113

    Why are 'Kippers suddenly frothing about Climate Change Denial again just now ? Because the single consistent policy message coming from the Transition is that Trump is going to go all out for a Carbon boom. This is going to trigger the first global political campaign in history. Much of big business, the global scientific consensus, the EU, China, The Pope, the world's environmental movement and half of the US against the Trump Presidency. A Global Kulturkampf enormously corrosive of the USA's soft power.

    They're just a bunch of Cnuts, railing impotently against natural forces.
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    MaxPB said:



    If Pax Americana ends then we'll need a Pax Europa. Which in practical terms means a Pax Germanica. We aren't a million miles away from actually asking the Germans to rearm. They've the wealth, population and industrial mass to lead the EU's defence of it's eastern borders. But it would be a hell of a psychological and political switch ( as well as taking time ).

    Nah. We asked the Germans to rearm in 1949, and they did.

    West German forces formed the backbone of NATO forces on the Rhine for almost 40 years.
    Don't be silly. Germany is deliberately and rightly a military pigmy relative to it's size and wealth. But that is/was part of the deal with Pax Americana. If Pax American ends then all is in flux. And as you are well aware free Europe's front line is now much further west than the Rhine. There is simply more Europe to defend these days.
    I'm not being silly. I'm simply challenging your assertion that asking the Germans to rearm is a big deal, and a huge psychological/political switch.

    We asked them to do it within 4 years of Hitler's death. They did, and it wasn't a big deal.

    Hmm - Germany created a defence force. It spends comparatively nothing on defence. As Europe's richest, most populous country it should by rights have its biggest and most powerful military, as a permanent seat on the Security Council. A German military capability in line with its financial might and number of inhabitants would dwarf what we have. Are we really comfortable with that? What would Germany's neighbours think?

    No nukes, no UNSC seat. Simple.

    Why no nukes for Germany in a post NATO world? Trump has no problems with friendly countries developing them.

    IIRC Germany is banned from having Nuclear Weapons by the international reunification treaty. Thought that was a product of it's time. If the US Nuclear umbrella went we'd need some sort of minimum Eurobomb.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    PlatoSaid said:

    David Martosko
    Anyone who believes Donald Trump (whose 3 adult kids married Jews and whose grandchildren are Jewish) would hire an anti-semite is an idiot.

    Andrew Breitbart was Jewish too. I can't get over how silly some here are.

    If they say that often enough, Trump will be part of an anti-muslim Jewish conspiracy.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,061
    MaxPB said:



    Come on, be realistic. There isn't any world where Germans who have forced the government to shut down nuclear power plants on the basis of safety will ever allow for nuclear weapons to be made.

    There is a world, but it probably involves Russia invading a bunch of eastern European countries.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    PlatoSaid said:

    David Martosko
    Anyone who believes Donald Trump (whose 3 adult kids married Jews and whose grandchildren are Jewish) would hire an anti-semite is an idiot.

    Andrew Breitbart was Jewish too. I can't get over how silly some here are.

    Omg. One doesn't follow the other. Saying some of my best friends are Jews doesn't mean you can excuse the hire of someone whos paper is clearly bigoted.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,576
    Speedy said:

    @Malmesbury Are we taking at cross purposes ? Or are you really comparing West Germany's defensive contribution to NATO with what I'm talking about ? A military capable of sustaining a Pax Europa ? Of defending the Baltics, Poland, Romania, Finland from the Russians ? It would be utterly unlike any military they've had since WW2.

    Try to convince the German finance minister to triple defence expenditure to protect Greece ect.
    The German army circa 1988 would stop Russia from playing silly b$%^$^s anywhere West of the Polish border. The Poles, when their rearmament is complete, will be able to hold an attempted Russian invasion further east "at risk" until German help could get there.

    Putting a bunch of tanks on a train to a friendly country doesn't require expeditionary capability.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Telegraph
    Investigators have started exhuming the bodies of a Polish president to determine whether he was assassinated
    https://t.co/QqnieZwyVI
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2016
    Oh nononononono, John Bolton is one of those characterized as "nutters" from the Bush W. administration.

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/rudy-giuliani-john-bolton-are-leading-candidates-for-next-secretary-of-state-1479156004

    John Bolton spells BIG trouble.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    MikeK said:

    Obama getting stroppy with Trump. Sez "I'm still the President",, and then says what he thinks Trump will do, re Nato. I see a bit of a clash here. ;)
    https://twitter.com/politico/status/798270559935033344

    Lol.

    Reminds me of this photoshop Guido knocked out:

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/600382612343894016
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,061
    Speedy said:

    @Malmesbury Are we taking at cross purposes ? Or are you really comparing West Germany's defensive contribution to NATO with what I'm talking about ? A military capable of sustaining a Pax Europa ? Of defending the Baltics, Poland, Romania, Finland from the Russians ? It would be utterly unlike any military they've had since WW2.

    Try to convince the German finance minister to triple defence expenditure to protect Greece ect.
    My friend in the CDU tells me that Germany will be increasing defence spending... But I doubt it'll be 3x
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited November 2016
    nunu said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    David Martosko
    Anyone who believes Donald Trump (whose 3 adult kids married Jews and whose grandchildren are Jewish) would hire an anti-semite is an idiot.

    Andrew Breitbart was Jewish too. I can't get over how silly some here are.

    Omg. One doesn't follow the other. Saying some of my best friends are Jews doesn't mean you can excuse the hire of someone whos paper is clearly bigoted.
    The media seem to be focusing on the antisemitism angle, when from the claims I have seen of all the proven and alleged sins, the evidence is by far the weakest on this. Seems to me there are more genuinely bad stuff they should be focusing on.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    PlatoSaid said:

    Telegraph
    Investigators have started exhuming the bodies of a Polish president to determine whether he was assassinated
    https://t.co/QqnieZwyVI

    "Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the twin of the late president and leader of Law and Justice, has suggested his brother was in fact the victim of an assassination plot possibly involving Russia and Donald Tusk, who was Polish prime minister at the time of the crash."

    Tusk? :o
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,897
    edited November 2016
    Matthew D'Ancona has finally surfaced after dispearing for three months;

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/13/rexit-trumpism-donald-trump-nigel-farage

    Wonder if he's been in the US working for Hillary? I always got the impression he thought he was starring in his very own episode of The West Wing most of the time. Maybe the past three months he's been making the fantasy a reality?

    Anyway he's not happy about Brexit. Or Trump.
  • Options
    If lefties like me can hate Britain and the white working class (see PB and right wing press on any number of occasions), despite being British and from the white working class, then why does having Jewish grandchildren preclude Trump from being anti-Semitic?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,576
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    @Malmesbury Are we taking at cross purposes ? Or are you really comparing West Germany's defensive contribution to NATO with what I'm talking about ? A military capable of sustaining a Pax Europa ? Of defending the Baltics, Poland, Romania, Finland from the Russians ? It would be utterly unlike any military they've had since WW2.

    Try to convince the German finance minister to triple defence expenditure to protect Greece ect.
    My friend in the CDU tells me that Germany will be increasing defence spending... But I doubt it'll be 3x
    Yup. They might or might not make a commitment to increasing defense spending year on year, so that it might reach the 2% NATO commitment level. Or maybe not.

    3x would be 3.6% of GDP - there would be basically no support for that in Germany at the moment.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Telegraph
    Investigators have started exhuming the bodies of a Polish president to determine whether he was assassinated
    https://t.co/QqnieZwyVI

    "Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the twin of the late president and leader of Law and Justice, has suggested his brother was in fact the victim of an assassination plot possibly involving Russia and Donald Tusk, who was Polish prime minister at the time of the crash."

    Tusk? :o
    Why not, we live in crazy times.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Jonathan


    'There seems to be a growing bunch of people who know the truth before they watch the news and see anything that disagrees with their world view as a conspiracy.'


    Just like the growing bunch of people that know the government's negotiating plan for Brexit.

  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:



    Come on, be realistic. There isn't any world where Germans who have forced the government to shut down nuclear power plants on the basis of safety will ever allow for nuclear weapons to be made.

    There is a world, but it probably involves Russia invading a bunch of eastern European countries.

    And that could never happen ;-)

  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,576

    MaxPB said:



    If Pax Americana ends then we'll need a Pax Europa. Which in practical terms means a Pax Germanica. We aren't a million miles away from actually asking the Germans to rearm. They've the wealth, population and industrial mass to lead the EU's defence of it's eastern borders. But it would be a hell of a psychological and political switch ( as well as taking time ).

    Nah. We asked the Germans to rearm in 1949, and they did.

    West German forces formed the backbone of NATO forces on the Rhine for almost 40 years.
    Don't be silly. Germany is deliberately and rightly a military pigmy relative to it's size and wealth. But that is/was part of the deal with Pax Americana. If Pax American ends then all is in flux. And as you are well aware free Europe's front line is now much further west than the Rhine. There is simply more Europe to defend these days.
    I'm not being silly. I'm simply challenging your assertion that asking the Germans to rearm is a big deal, and a huge psychological/political switch.

    We asked them to do it within 4 years of Hitler's death. They did, and it wasn't a big deal.

    Hmm - Germany created a defence force. It spends comparatively nothing on defence. As Europe's richest, most populous country it should by rights have its biggest and most powerful military, as a permanent seat on the Security Council. A German military capability in line with its financial might and number of inhabitants would dwarf what we have. Are we really comfortable with that? What would Germany's neighbours think?

    No nukes, no UNSC seat. Simple.

    Why no nukes for Germany in a post NATO world? Trump has no problems with friendly countries developing them.

    IIRC Germany is banned from having Nuclear Weapons by the international reunification treaty. Thought that was a product of it's time. If the US Nuclear umbrella went we'd need some sort of minimum Eurobomb.
    The French would love to oblige, I'm sure.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Telegraph
    Investigators have started exhuming the bodies of a Polish president to determine whether he was assassinated
    https://t.co/QqnieZwyVI

    "Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the twin of the late president and leader of Law and Justice, has suggested his brother was in fact the victim of an assassination plot possibly involving Russia and Donald Tusk, who was Polish prime minister at the time of the crash."

    Tusk? :o
    Yep. It's a Polish conspiracy theory:
    https://www.rt.com/news/363726-polish-plane-crash-conspiracy-tusk/
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/14/exclusive-donald-trumps-new-chief-strategist-steve-bannon-will-c/

    Can't be serious

    "Donald Trump will consult Nigel Farage about any policy proposals which will affect the UK before he contacts Theresa May, according to the Ukip leader's aides."
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    nunu said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    David Martosko
    Anyone who believes Donald Trump (whose 3 adult kids married Jews and whose grandchildren are Jewish) would hire an anti-semite is an idiot.

    Andrew Breitbart was Jewish too. I can't get over how silly some here are.

    Omg. One doesn't follow the other. Saying some of my best friends are Jews doesn't mean you can excuse the hire of someone whos paper is clearly bigoted.
    I wouldn't attach too much weight to testimony from nasty divorce battles.

    I remember reading an article from a barrister who explained that his client was in the middle of a horid divorce. The wife phoned the police alleging that the husband had threatened to kill her with a shotgun. Police arrive and ask for the firearm cabinet to be opened. They find an empty cabinet with a receipt from the registered firearms dealer dated several weeks ago. This is apparently quite common.

    Hiring anyone from Breitbart is stupid but I remain skeptical about the anti-Semitism allegations.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Telegraph
    Investigators have started exhuming the bodies of a Polish president to determine whether he was assassinated
    https://t.co/QqnieZwyVI

    "Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the twin of the late president and leader of Law and Justice, has suggested his brother was in fact the victim of an assassination plot possibly involving Russia and Donald Tusk, who was Polish prime minister at the time of the crash."

    Tusk? :o
    Yep. It's a Polish conspiracy theory:
    https://www.rt.com/news/363726-polish-plane-crash-conspiracy-tusk/
    If it's a conspiracy according to RT, does that make it the truth? :p
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,950
    Liberal, rational, centrist politicians need to take a long hard look at themselves, and ask, why are they losing?

    They can say simply that the voters are stupid (the Matthew Parris approach). They don't know how lucky they are. Perhaps, the answer is to end democracy, so they can remain in power a bit longer.

    Or maybe, the answer requires a bit of hard thinking. Are they doing things that are wrong?
  • Options
    I'm neither advocating, predicting nor opposing German remilitarisation. The various reasons critics have given for it being very unlikely are all quite correct. I'm just pointing out many of the historic presumptions which make it very unlikely are suddenly unlikely.

    I was also ( probably too obtusely ) trying to troll PB's Tory Brexiters. In the space of 5 months we've gone from the EUSSR to an atlanticist populist revolt that raises the possibility of massive German rearmament being necessary to project Pax Europa.

    It's utterly hilarious.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Michigan is fully counted, they will verify tommorow.

    So is New Hampshire. Though they have removed the final result pdf which was up on their site.

    May's speech sounding quite hard brexity to me, also sounds like the sort of rhetoric that should give her a landslide win.

    Betfair Exchange has settled New Hampshire.
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    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    How about this for confirmation bias.

    Parker Molloy
    This is literally out of Hitler's playbook. https://t.co/RqdoinRzN8 @anamariecox https://t.co/ntW9aM2LtN

    LOL. Peak twitter? Apparently JFK also took a $1 salary.
    Stalin's desk was apparently full of uncashed pay cheques. It was one of Julie Burchill's big things when she was in her Stalin worship phase (perhaps she's still in it, I stopped paying attention to her years ago).
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,897
    RobD said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/14/exclusive-donald-trumps-new-chief-strategist-steve-bannon-will-c/

    Can't be serious

    "Donald Trump will consult Nigel Farage about any policy proposals which will affect the UK before he contacts Theresa May, according to the Ukip leader's aides."

    LOL!

    I think the government is going to have to give Nigel some sort of "official" role if they want to deal with Donald.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,992
    Speedy said:

    Oh nononononono, John Bolton is one of those characterized as "nutters" from the Bush W. administration.

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/rudy-giuliani-john-bolton-are-leading-candidates-for-next-secretary-of-state-1479156004

    John Bolton spells BIG trouble.

    Iran :D ?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,992
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Michigan is fully counted, they will verify tommorow.

    So is New Hampshire. Though they have removed the final result pdf which was up on their site.

    May's speech sounding quite hard brexity to me, also sounds like the sort of rhetoric that should give her a landslide win.

    Betfair Exchange has settled New Hampshire.
    I know :)
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    Liberal, rational, centrist politicians need to take a long hard look at themselves, and ask, why are they losing?

    They can say simply that the voters are stupid (the Matthew Parris approach). They don't know how lucky they are. Perhaps, the answer is to end democracy, so they can remain in power a bit longer.

    Or maybe, the answer requires a bit of hard thinking. Are they doing things that are wrong?

    They are not providing easy answers to complicated problems and issues. But the centre has lost. They right is utterly dominant in the US and the UK. We'll now find out if the easy answers work.

  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited November 2016
    john_zims said:

    @Jonathan


    'There seems to be a growing bunch of people who know the truth before they watch the news and see anything that disagrees with their world view as a conspiracy.'


    Just like the growing bunch of people that know the government's negotiating plan for Brexit.

    Nah. Noone knows the government Brexit plan, not even the government.
  • Options

    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Telegraph
    Investigators have started exhuming the bodies of a Polish president to determine whether he was assassinated
    https://t.co/QqnieZwyVI

    "Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the twin of the late president and leader of Law and Justice, has suggested his brother was in fact the victim of an assassination plot possibly involving Russia and Donald Tusk, who was Polish prime minister at the time of the crash."

    Tusk? :o
    Yep. It's a Polish conspiracy theory:
    https://www.rt.com/news/363726-polish-plane-crash-conspiracy-tusk/
    Nor is it the first such in Polish history:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Władysław_Sikorski's_death_controversy
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    If Ladbrokes site was any slower it would be really, really slow.
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    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/14/exclusive-donald-trumps-new-chief-strategist-steve-bannon-will-c/

    Can't be serious

    "Donald Trump will consult Nigel Farage about any policy proposals which will affect the UK before he contacts Theresa May, according to the Ukip leader's aides."

    LOL!

    I think the government is going to have to give Nigel some sort of "official" role if they want to deal with Donald.
    Uks official representative to GOD (great orange dick)
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    nunu said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    David Martosko
    Anyone who believes Donald Trump (whose 3 adult kids married Jews and whose grandchildren are Jewish) would hire an anti-semite is an idiot.

    Andrew Breitbart was Jewish too. I can't get over how silly some here are.

    Omg. One doesn't follow the other. Saying some of my best friends are Jews doesn't mean you can excuse the hire of someone whos paper is clearly bigoted.
    The media seem to be focusing on the antisemitism angle, when from the claims I have seen of all the proven and alleged sins, the evidence is by far the weakest on this. Seems to me there are more genuinely bad stuff they should be focusing on.
    http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/11/14/horowitz-anti-bannon-hysteria-more-evidence-the-left-has-lost-touch-with-the-american-people/

    " can’t think of anything stupider than the charge coming from all quarters of the left–including a headline in the pathetically wretched Huffington Post–that Bannon is an anti-Semite. The source? A one sentence claim from an angry ex-wife in divorce court no less, that Bannon didn’t want their kids to go to school with Jews. I find that particularly amusing since Bannon wanted to make a film to celebrate this Jew’s life."
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    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    Lots of comments about the 'new world order'.
    We don't know what this means, but in all probability it means Putin achieving its long term policy objectives: a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe, an isolated and divided UK, and a weakened, neutralised EU.
    From any objective standpoint, the UK would be best off staying in the EU and using its influence there. But all these arguments were rejected by the people (the idiots) in the referendum and we have to respect that decision. The outcome of Brexit is that the Scots will have their own populist revolt and vote for independence (look at the odds).
    The Kremlin is meddling here as well, basing a number of new media outlets in Edinburgh. Corbyn and the SNP have already both proved themselves happy/foolish enough to do Putins bidding.
    Putins aim is to turn Scotland against England/RUK then ultimately to weaken our defensive capabilities and then remove our nuclear deterrent.
    We will just pretty much be an isolated island on the edge of Europe, split in to two or more countries, with no global influence.
    What is happening at the moment is absolutely tragic and humiliating, it is the unravelling of Britain as a diplomatic superpower and the abdication of power and influence on the world stage.
    And leading this is the tragic and pathetic figure of Boris Johnson.
    Britains tragedy is seconded by the demise of the US as a global superpower, as it abdicates any principled stance of liberal interventionalism and disintegrates in to decadence and overt self interest, perfectly represented by Donald Trump.
    Basically this is a nightmare, there are no positive angles, it just keeps getting worse and worse. The only consolation is that conflict with Russia may have been averted, but this is at the expense of the rule based international order that has generally held peace for seven decades.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    Oh nononononono, John Bolton is one of those characterized as "nutters" from the Bush W. administration.

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/rudy-giuliani-john-bolton-are-leading-candidates-for-next-secretary-of-state-1479156004

    John Bolton spells BIG trouble.

    Iran :D ?
    Iraq, remember.

    Also I think he wants the USA to withdraw from the UN and make it's own club or something.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,916
    glw said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sky has become just as unwatchable as the BBC or CNN. Trump winning has just caused them to double down on their Brexit nervous breakdown. I can only come to the conclusion that they've no idea how to cope and are doing a Junker.

    Radio 5 this morning was basically sniggering at Trump, I realise it's not easy for them to judge what is going on in the US from Salford, but it really was a poor show. It's not only the BBC of course, the media in this country suffers from groupthink in a big way. Journalists are drawn from too small and narrow a pool to adequately represent and understand our own population, so I'm not surprised that events in the US leave them dumbfounded and left to resort to joking.
    To be fair... It's not as if there were lots of journalists or papers in the USA on the side of Mr. Trump...
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newspaper_endorsements_in_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016
  • Options

    Sean_F said:

    Liberal, rational, centrist politicians need to take a long hard look at themselves, and ask, why are they losing?

    They can say simply that the voters are stupid (the Matthew Parris approach). They don't know how lucky they are. Perhaps, the answer is to end democracy, so they can remain in power a bit longer.

    Or maybe, the answer requires a bit of hard thinking. Are they doing things that are wrong?

    They are not providing easy answers to complicated problems and issues. But the centre has lost. They right is utterly dominant in the US and the UK. We'll now find out if the easy answers work.

    There's nothing to stop the centre (and left) putting forward constructive ideas.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2016
    rkrkrk said:

    glw said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sky has become just as unwatchable as the BBC or CNN. Trump winning has just caused them to double down on their Brexit nervous breakdown. I can only come to the conclusion that they've no idea how to cope and are doing a Junker.

    Radio 5 this morning was basically sniggering at Trump, I realise it's not easy for them to judge what is going on in the US from Salford, but it really was a poor show. It's not only the BBC of course, the media in this country suffers from groupthink in a big way. Journalists are drawn from too small and narrow a pool to adequately represent and understand our own population, so I'm not surprised that events in the US leave them dumbfounded and left to resort to joking.
    To be fair... It's not as if there were lots of journalists or papers in the USA on the side of Mr. Trump...
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newspaper_endorsements_in_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016
    Yeah, I think the only endorsement he got was from Murdoch and his son-in law Kushner.

    95% of journalists in america hate him.

    But Trump knows how to play the cat and mouse game with the media since 1977.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    @Malmesbury Are we taking at cross purposes ? Or are you really comparing West Germany's defensive contribution to NATO with what I'm talking about ? A military capable of sustaining a Pax Europa ? Of defending the Baltics, Poland, Romania, Finland from the Russians ? It would be utterly unlike any military they've had since WW2.

    Try to convince the German finance minister to triple defence expenditure to protect Greece ect.
    My friend in the CDU tells me that Germany will be increasing defence spending... But I doubt it'll be 3x
    83% by any chance? That's what they'd need to do to meet the NATO minimum. Would be a huge bonanza for the UK defence industry if Europe increased defence spending by the required €117bn.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061

    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Telegraph
    Investigators have started exhuming the bodies of a Polish president to determine whether he was assassinated
    https://t.co/QqnieZwyVI

    "Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the twin of the late president and leader of Law and Justice, has suggested his brother was in fact the victim of an assassination plot possibly involving Russia and Donald Tusk, who was Polish prime minister at the time of the crash."

    Tusk? :o
    Yep. It's a Polish conspiracy theory:
    https://www.rt.com/news/363726-polish-plane-crash-conspiracy-tusk/
    Nor is it the first such in Polish history:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Władysław_Sikorski's_death_controversy
    Thanks. Hadn't heard of that one.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    If lefties like me can hate Britain and the white working class (see PB and right wing press on any number of occasions), despite being British and from the white working class, then why does having Jewish grandchildren preclude Trump from being anti-Semitic?

    Maybe because Trump is a rational human being. Or maybe because you have been taught that he is and are unable to face the facts, just your opinions and pre-judices.
  • Options

    Sean_F said:

    Liberal, rational, centrist politicians need to take a long hard look at themselves, and ask, why are they losing?

    They can say simply that the voters are stupid (the Matthew Parris approach). They don't know how lucky they are. Perhaps, the answer is to end democracy, so they can remain in power a bit longer.

    Or maybe, the answer requires a bit of hard thinking. Are they doing things that are wrong?

    They are not providing easy answers to complicated problems and issues. But the centre has lost. They right is utterly dominant in the US and the UK. We'll now find out if the easy answers work.

    There's nothing to stop the centre (and left) putting forward constructive ideas.
    Corbyn has it cracked .... 1970s 21st Century Socialism...
  • Options

    Sean_F said:

    Liberal, rational, centrist politicians need to take a long hard look at themselves, and ask, why are they losing?

    They can say simply that the voters are stupid (the Matthew Parris approach). They don't know how lucky they are. Perhaps, the answer is to end democracy, so they can remain in power a bit longer.

    Or maybe, the answer requires a bit of hard thinking. Are they doing things that are wrong?

    They are not providing easy answers to complicated problems and issues. But the centre has lost. They right is utterly dominant in the US and the UK. We'll now find out if the easy answers work.

    There's nothing to stop the centre (and left) putting forward constructive ideas.

    I am sure we will. But this is unequivocally the right's game now. It owns all that happens - good and bad - from here on in.

  • Options
    nielh said:

    Corbyn and the SNP have already both proved themselves happy/foolish enough to do Putins bidding.

    In what sense?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,576

    I'm neither advocating, predicting nor opposing German remilitarisation. The various reasons critics have given for it being very unlikely are all quite correct. I'm just pointing out many of the historic presumptions which make it very unlikely are suddenly unlikely.

    I was also ( probably too obtusely ) trying to troll PB's Tory Brexiters. In the space of 5 months we've gone from the EUSSR to an atlanticist populist revolt that raises the possibility of massive German rearmament being necessary to project Pax Europa.

    It's utterly hilarious.

    Ah, the "I was trolling" excuse for not knowing the facts...

    Is Donald Trump just a mega-troll then?
  • Options
    FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    john_zims said:

    @Jonathan


    'There seems to be a growing bunch of people who know the truth before they watch the news and see anything that disagrees with their world view as a conspiracy.'


    Just like the growing bunch of people that know the government's negotiating plan for Brexit.

    We all know the Brexit strategy. Don't panic, Captain Mainwaring!
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,897

    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/14/exclusive-donald-trumps-new-chief-strategist-steve-bannon-will-c/

    Can't be serious

    "Donald Trump will consult Nigel Farage about any policy proposals which will affect the UK before he contacts Theresa May, according to the Ukip leader's aides."

    LOL!

    I think the government is going to have to give Nigel some sort of "official" role if they want to deal with Donald.
    Uks official representative to GOD (great orange dick)
    Basically yes. ;)
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    nielh said:

    Corbyn and the SNP have already both proved themselves happy/foolish enough to do Putins bidding.

    In what sense?
    Disarm Trident/ remove it from Scotland's shores.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,061
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    @Malmesbury Are we taking at cross purposes ? Or are you really comparing West Germany's defensive contribution to NATO with what I'm talking about ? A military capable of sustaining a Pax Europa ? Of defending the Baltics, Poland, Romania, Finland from the Russians ? It would be utterly unlike any military they've had since WW2.

    Try to convince the German finance minister to triple defence expenditure to protect Greece ect.
    My friend in the CDU tells me that Germany will be increasing defence spending... But I doubt it'll be 3x
    83% by any chance? That's what they'd need to do to meet the NATO minimum. Would be a huge bonanza for the UK defence industry if Europe increased defence spending by the required €117bn.
    I think it's inevitable (and a net positive for Rolls Royce, BAe, Safran and Airbus) that there will be meaningful increases in spending. I doubt Germany will get to 2% any time soon, but the structural declines in European defence spending are over.
  • Options
    weejonnie said:

    If lefties like me can hate Britain and the white working class (see PB and right wing press on any number of occasions), despite being British and from the white working class, then why does having Jewish grandchildren preclude Trump from being anti-Semitic?

    Maybe because Trump is a rational human being. Or maybe because you have been taught that he is and are unable to face the facts, just your opinions and pre-judices.

    I am sure that makes sense to you.

  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    weejonnie said:

    nielh said:

    Corbyn and the SNP have already both proved themselves happy/foolish enough to do Putins bidding.

    In what sense?
    Disarm Trident/ remove it from Scotland's shores.
    A good thing too.

    Who are we aiming our missles at?, Mr Putin is our new BFF...
  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @foxinsoxuk"

    'Nah. Noone knows the government Brexit plan, not even the government.'


    Oh dear, straight from the Lib Dems playbook,desperate times indeed.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    How about this for confirmation bias.

    Parker Molloy
    This is literally out of Hitler's playbook. https://t.co/RqdoinRzN8 @anamariecox https://t.co/ntW9aM2LtN

    LOL. Peak twitter? Apparently JFK also took a $1 salary.
    Stalin's desk was apparently full of uncashed pay cheques. It was one of Julie Burchill's big things when she was in her Stalin worship phase (perhaps she's still in it, I stopped paying attention to her years ago).
    "Trump would only be the third president to reject the salary: John F. Kennedy (D) and Herbert Hoover (R), who were both extremely wealthy, also said no. "

  • Options
    dodradedodrade Posts: 595
    Speedy said:

    Oh nononononono, John Bolton is one of those characterized as "nutters" from the Bush W. administration.

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/rudy-giuliani-john-bolton-are-leading-candidates-for-next-secretary-of-state-1479156004

    John Bolton spells BIG trouble.

    He has a close resemblance to my GP, which i'm not sure is either reassuring or disturbing.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    weejonnie said:

    nielh said:

    Corbyn and the SNP have already both proved themselves happy/foolish enough to do Putins bidding.

    In what sense?
    Disarm Trident/ remove it from Scotland's shores.
    A good thing too.

    Who are we aiming our missles at?, Mr Putin is our new BFF...
    I would definately prefer Putin as a friend than an enemy. It seems that the UK Government would prefer the latter, but the US one the former.
  • Options
    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    nielh said:

    Corbyn and the SNP have already both proved themselves happy/foolish enough to do Putins bidding.

    In what sense?
    Corbyn is often on Russia today. He was calling for a demilitarised zone in Eastern Europe yesterday. The links are well known and discussed here and elsewhere.

    As for the SNP, it has the characteristics of one of the disruptive fringe political movements that Russia are known to support around Europe. Salmond made positive comments about Putin in Indyref 1.

  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    @Malmesbury Are we taking at cross purposes ? Or are you really comparing West Germany's defensive contribution to NATO with what I'm talking about ? A military capable of sustaining a Pax Europa ? Of defending the Baltics, Poland, Romania, Finland from the Russians ? It would be utterly unlike any military they've had since WW2.

    Try to convince the German finance minister to triple defence expenditure to protect Greece ect.
    My friend in the CDU tells me that Germany will be increasing defence spending... But I doubt it'll be 3x
    83% by any chance? That's what they'd need to do to meet the NATO minimum. Would be a huge bonanza for the UK defence industry if Europe increased defence spending by the required €117bn.
    I think it's inevitable (and a net positive for Rolls Royce, BAe, Safran and Airbus) that there will be meaningful increases in spending. I doubt Germany will get to 2% any time soon, but the structural declines in European defence spending are over.
    I don't tbink it follows.

    More than likely we are looking at the end of NATO, and replacing that with an EU force without expeditionary capability, largely an effective border force.

    To me that looks fine and dandy. Russia is no real threat, and who else is? The Yanks pulling out is long overdue.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,950

    Sean_F said:

    Liberal, rational, centrist politicians need to take a long hard look at themselves, and ask, why are they losing?

    They can say simply that the voters are stupid (the Matthew Parris approach). They don't know how lucky they are. Perhaps, the answer is to end democracy, so they can remain in power a bit longer.

    Or maybe, the answer requires a bit of hard thinking. Are they doing things that are wrong?

    They are not providing easy answers to complicated problems and issues. But the centre has lost. They right is utterly dominant in the US and the UK. We'll now find out if the easy answers work.

    They're not attempting to provide any answers, other than assuring us that supranationalism and mass migration are somehow good for us.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,260
    edited November 2016
    weejonnie said:

    nielh said:

    Corbyn and the SNP have already both proved themselves happy/foolish enough to do Putins bidding.

    In what sense?
    Disarm Trident/ remove it from Scotland's shores.
    The SNP has been explicitly opposed to nuclear weapons since the 60s, so presumably they've been doing Krushchev's, Brezhnev's, Andropov's, Gorbachev's and Yeltsin's bidding also. Remarkable consistency.

    Edit: forgot about Chernenko.
  • Options

    Sean_F said:

    Liberal, rational, centrist politicians need to take a long hard look at themselves, and ask, why are they losing?

    They can say simply that the voters are stupid (the Matthew Parris approach). They don't know how lucky they are. Perhaps, the answer is to end democracy, so they can remain in power a bit longer.

    Or maybe, the answer requires a bit of hard thinking. Are they doing things that are wrong?

    They are not providing easy answers to complicated problems and issues. But the centre has lost. They right is utterly dominant in the US and the UK. We'll now find out if the easy answers work.

    There's nothing to stop the centre (and left) putting forward constructive ideas.

    I am sure we will. But this is unequivocally the right's game now. It owns all that happens - good and bad - from here on in.

    Bit of a predicament you're in - if it all falls apart the West is likely f'cked but if it goes well the future is Trump and Farage stamping on the centre-left's face forever.

    As to new ideas from the centre-left I won't be holding my breath - the last two were "spend more money" and "British Jobs For British Workers".
  • Options
    Scott_P said:
    And Merkel is apparently back of the queue.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:



    Come on, be realistic. There isn't any world where Germans who have forced the government to shut down nuclear power plants on the basis of safety will ever allow for nuclear weapons to be made.

    There is a world, but it probably involves Russia invading a bunch of eastern European countries.
    Not very likely tbh, there is a reason Putin stopped at Crimea. Other than reabsorbing client states like Belarus I'm not sure how much effort Putin really wants to put into bothering Europe. If he tried to invade an EU nation the response militarily and economically would be devastating for Russia. The only upside might be that oil prices would go up with that kind of war. The Russian capacity to wage war with Europe is quite poor which is why they have picked off small targets like Chechnya, Georgia and Ukraine. Going into Poland, for example, is a non starter.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,705

    weejonnie said:

    nielh said:

    Corbyn and the SNP have already both proved themselves happy/foolish enough to do Putins bidding.

    In what sense?
    Disarm Trident/ remove it from Scotland's shores.

    Who are we aiming our missles at?
    Brussels or Trump Tower, depending who has their finger on the button.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    john_zims said:

    @foxinsoxuk"

    'Nah. Noone knows the government Brexit plan, not even the government.'


    Oh dear, straight from the Lib Dems playbook,desperate times indeed.

    The evidence is there to see. The government cannot agree amongst themselves what the objectives are.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,131
    Scott_P said:
    If true this is madness. Trump's view of American interests in opening up to Russia will not be changed by a charm offensive.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    @Malmesbury Are we taking at cross purposes ? Or are you really comparing West Germany's defensive contribution to NATO with what I'm talking about ? A military capable of sustaining a Pax Europa ? Of defending the Baltics, Poland, Romania, Finland from the Russians ? It would be utterly unlike any military they've had since WW2.

    Try to convince the German finance minister to triple defence expenditure to protect Greece ect.
    My friend in the CDU tells me that Germany will be increasing defence spending... But I doubt it'll be 3x
    83% by any chance? That's what they'd need to do to meet the NATO minimum. Would be a huge bonanza for the UK defence industry if Europe increased defence spending by the required €117bn.
    I think it's inevitable (and a net positive for Rolls Royce, BAe, Safran and Airbus) that there will be meaningful increases in spending. I doubt Germany will get to 2% any time soon, but the structural declines in European defence spending are over.
    I don't tbink it follows.

    More than likely we are looking at the end of NATO, and replacing that with an EU force without expeditionary capability, largely an effective border force.

    To me that looks fine and dandy. Russia is no real threat, and who else is? The Yanks pulling out is long overdue.
    Pacifists. You're all clueless.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,950
    edited November 2016
    nielh said:

    Lots of comments about the 'new world order'.
    We don't know what this means, but in all probability it means Putin achieving its long term policy objectives: a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe, an isolated and divided UK, and a weakened, neutralised EU.
    From any objective standpoint, the UK would be best off staying in the EU and using its influence there. But all these arguments were rejected by the people (the idiots) in the referendum and we have to respect that decision. The outcome of Brexit is that the Scots will have their own populist revolt and vote for independence (look at the odds).
    The Kremlin is meddling here as well, basing a number of new media outlets in Edinburgh. Corbyn and the SNP have already both proved themselves happy/foolish enough to do Putins bidding.
    Putins aim is to turn Scotland against England/RUK then ultimately to weaken our defensive capabilities and then remove our nuclear deterrent.
    We will just pretty much be an isolated island on the edge of Europe, split in to two or more countries, with no global influence.
    What is happening at the moment is absolutely tragic and humiliating, it is the unravelling of Britain as a diplomatic superpower and the abdication of power and influence on the world stage.
    And leading this is the tragic and pathetic figure of Boris Johnson.
    Britains tragedy is seconded by the demise of the US as a global superpower, as it abdicates any principled stance of liberal interventionalism and disintegrates in to decadence and overt self interest, perfectly represented by Donald Trump.
    Basically this is a nightmare, there are no positive angles, it just keeps getting worse and worse. The only consolation is that conflict with Russia may have been averted, but this is at the expense of the rule based international order that has generally held peace for seven decades.

    There you go again "The people (the idiots)".

    If people like you had actually bothered to listen to the people's views, you wouldn't be in your current predicament.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Scott_P said:
    If true this is madness. Trump's view of American interests in opening up to Russia will not be changed by a charm offensive.
    I do not think the Trumpster is going to be a sucker for Mrs May's feeble charms.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited November 2016



    Stalin's desk was apparently full of uncashed pay cheques. It was one of Julie Burchill's big things when she was in her Stalin worship phase (perhaps she's still in it, I stopped paying attention to her years ago).

    "Trump would only be the third president to reject the salary: John F. Kennedy (D) and Herbert Hoover (R), who were both extremely wealthy, also said no. "

    I read a piece earlier that said George Washington only accepted a salary to demonstrate that POTUS wasn't just a wealthy man's office.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    @Malmesbury Are we taking at cross purposes ? Or are you really comparing West Germany's defensive contribution to NATO with what I'm talking about ? A military capable of sustaining a Pax Europa ? Of defending the Baltics, Poland, Romania, Finland from the Russians ? It would be utterly unlike any military they've had since WW2.

    Try to convince the German finance minister to triple defence expenditure to protect Greece ect.
    My friend in the CDU tells me that Germany will be increasing defence spending... But I doubt it'll be 3x
    83% by any chance? That's what they'd need to do to meet the NATO minimum. Would be a huge bonanza for the UK defence industry if Europe increased defence spending by the required €117bn.
    I think it's inevitable (and a net positive for Rolls Royce, BAe, Safran and Airbus) that there will be meaningful increases in spending. I doubt Germany will get to 2% any time soon, but the structural declines in European defence spending are over.
    For the German military to be in such bad shape after all they had in 1990 suggests they really ran it down since.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited November 2016

    Scott_P said:
    If true this is madness. Trump's view of American interests in opening up to Russia will not be changed by a charm offensive.
    I do not think the Trumpster is going to be a sucker for Mrs May's feeble charms.
    Is it cos I iz black a woman?
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    @Malmesbury Are we taking at cross purposes ? Or are you really comparing West Germany's defensive contribution to NATO with what I'm talking about ? A military capable of sustaining a Pax Europa ? Of defending the Baltics, Poland, Romania, Finland from the Russians ? It would be utterly unlike any military they've had since WW2.

    Try to convince the German finance minister to triple defence expenditure to protect Greece ect.
    My friend in the CDU tells me that Germany will be increasing defence spending... But I doubt it'll be 3x
    83% by any chance? That's what they'd need to do to meet the NATO minimum. Would be a huge bonanza for the UK defence industry if Europe increased defence spending by the required €117bn.
    I think it's inevitable (and a net positive for Rolls Royce, BAe, Safran and Airbus) that there will be meaningful increases in spending. I doubt Germany will get to 2% any time soon, but the structural declines in European defence spending are over.
    I don't tbink it follows.

    More than likely we are looking at the end of NATO, and replacing that with an EU force without expeditionary capability, largely an effective border force.

    To me that looks fine and dandy. Russia is no real threat, and who else is? The Yanks pulling out is long overdue.
    Pacifists. You're all clueless.
    Can you please make your mind up. Is Putin our sworn enemy or our new bestie?
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,554
    Sean_F said:

    If people like you had actually bothered to listen to the people's views, you wouldn't be in your current predicament.

    It is quite reassuring in a way to see posts like that. There are people I definitely do not want to ever "get it".
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    @Malmesbury Are we taking at cross purposes ? Or are you really comparing West Germany's defensive contribution to NATO with what I'm talking about ? A military capable of sustaining a Pax Europa ? Of defending the Baltics, Poland, Romania, Finland from the Russians ? It would be utterly unlike any military they've had since WW2.

    Try to convince the German finance minister to triple defence expenditure to protect Greece ect.
    My friend in the CDU tells me that Germany will be increasing defence spending... But I doubt it'll be 3x
    83% by any chance? That's what they'd need to do to meet the NATO minimum. Would be a huge bonanza for the UK defence industry if Europe increased defence spending by the required €117bn.
    I think it's inevitable (and a net positive for Rolls Royce, BAe, Safran and Airbus) that there will be meaningful increases in spending. I doubt Germany will get to 2% any time soon, but the structural declines in European defence spending are over.
    I don't tbink it follows.

    More than likely we are looking at the end of NATO, and replacing that with an EU force without expeditionary capability, largely an effective border force.

    To me that looks fine and dandy. Russia is no real threat, and who else is? The Yanks pulling out is long overdue.
    Pacifists. You're all clueless.
    Can you please make your mind up. Is Putin our sworn enemy or our new bestie?
    Neither?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    @Malmesbury Are we taking at cross purposes ? Or are you really comparing West Germany's defensive contribution to NATO with what I'm talking about ? A military capable of sustaining a Pax Europa ? Of defending the Baltics, Poland, Romania, Finland from the Russians ? It would be utterly unlike any military they've had since WW2.

    Try to convince the German finance minister to triple defence expenditure to protect Greece ect.
    My friend in the CDU tells me that Germany will be increasing defence spending... But I doubt it'll be 3x
    83% by any chance? That's what they'd need to do to meet the NATO minimum. Would be a huge bonanza for the UK defence industry if Europe increased defence spending by the required €117bn.
    I think it's inevitable (and a net positive for Rolls Royce, BAe, Safran and Airbus) that there will be meaningful increases in spending. I doubt Germany will get to 2% any time soon, but the structural declines in European defence spending are over.
    I don't tbink it follows.

    More than likely we are looking at the end of NATO, and replacing that with an EU force without expeditionary capability, largely an effective border force.

    To me that looks fine and dandy. Russia is no real threat, and who else is? The Yanks pulling out is long overdue.
    Pacifists. You're all clueless.
    Can you please make your mind up. Is Putin our sworn enemy or our new bestie?
    Is the world black or white? Make up your mind. Come on, it's an easy question.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,061
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:



    Come on, be realistic. There isn't any world where Germans who have forced the government to shut down nuclear power plants on the basis of safety will ever allow for nuclear weapons to be made.

    There is a world, but it probably involves Russia invading a bunch of eastern European countries.
    Not very likely tbh, there is a reason Putin stopped at Crimea. Other than reabsorbing client states like Belarus I'm not sure how much effort Putin really wants to put into bothering Europe. If he tried to invade an EU nation the response militarily and economically would be devastating for Russia. The only upside might be that oil prices would go up with that kind of war. The Russian capacity to wage war with Europe is quite poor which is why they have picked off small targets like Chechnya, Georgia and Ukraine. Going into Poland, for example, is a non starter.
    I agree with all of that. Russia, ultimately, is a demographic disaster zone, dependent of the sale of oil and gas to the Europeans and Chinese. Unfortunately for them, new energy sources - whether LNG from Australia or the US, or solar and wind - are a long term drag on its primary industry.

    In China they have a word for Russia, they call it colloquially "the dying one". The danger is that, like a dying wasp, it stings before it expires.
  • Options

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    @Malmesbury Are we taking at cross purposes ? Or are you really comparing West Germany's defensive contribution to NATO with what I'm talking about ? A military capable of sustaining a Pax Europa ? Of defending the Baltics, Poland, Romania, Finland from the Russians ? It would be utterly unlike any military they've had since WW2.

    Try to convince the German finance minister to triple defence expenditure to protect Greece ect.
    My friend in the CDU tells me that Germany will be increasing defence spending... But I doubt it'll be 3x
    83% by any chance? That's what they'd need to do to meet the NATO minimum. Would be a huge bonanza for the UK defence industry if Europe increased defence spending by the required €117bn.
    I think it's inevitable (and a net positive for Rolls Royce, BAe, Safran and Airbus) that there will be meaningful increases in spending. I doubt Germany will get to 2% any time soon, but the structural declines in European defence spending are over.
    I don't tbink it follows.

    More than likely we are looking at the end of NATO, and replacing that with an EU force without expeditionary capability, largely an effective border force.

    To me that looks fine and dandy. Russia is no real threat, and who else is? The Yanks pulling out is long overdue.
    Pacifists. You're all clueless.
    Can you please make your mind up. Is Putin our sworn enemy or our new bestie?
    Schrodinger's Russki.
    Putin perception can be adjusted to every populist situation.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    @Malmesbury Are we taking at cross purposes ? Or are you really comparing West Germany's defensive contribution to NATO with what I'm talking about ? A military capable of sustaining a Pax Europa ? Of defending the Baltics, Poland, Romania, Finland from the Russians ? It would be utterly unlike any military they've had since WW2.

    Try to convince the German finance minister to triple defence expenditure to protect Greece ect.
    My friend in the CDU tells me that Germany will be increasing defence spending... But I doubt it'll be 3x
    83% by any chance? That's what they'd need to do to meet the NATO minimum. Would be a huge bonanza for the UK defence industry if Europe increased defence spending by the required €117bn.
    I think it's inevitable (and a net positive for Rolls Royce, BAe, Safran and Airbus) that there will be meaningful increases in spending. I doubt Germany will get to 2% any time soon, but the structural declines in European defence spending are over.
    I don't tbink it follows.

    More than likely we are looking at the end of NATO, and replacing that with an EU force without expeditionary capability, largely an effective border force.

    To me that looks fine and dandy. Russia is no real threat, and who else is? The Yanks pulling out is long overdue.
    Pacifists. You're all clueless.
    Can you please make your mind up. Is Putin our sworn enemy or our new bestie?
    Neither?
    Though it is probably time for the USAF to go home too.

    I don't want Trumpsbombers flying from British soil.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,061

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    @Malmesbury Are we taking at cross purposes ? Or are you really comparing West Germany's defensive contribution to NATO with what I'm talking about ? A military capable of sustaining a Pax Europa ? Of defending the Baltics, Poland, Romania, Finland from the Russians ? It would be utterly unlike any military they've had since WW2.

    Try to convince the German finance minister to triple defence expenditure to protect Greece ect.
    My friend in the CDU tells me that Germany will be increasing defence spending... But I doubt it'll be 3x
    83% by any chance? That's what they'd need to do to meet the NATO minimum. Would be a huge bonanza for the UK defence industry if Europe increased defence spending by the required €117bn.
    I think it's inevitable (and a net positive for Rolls Royce, BAe, Safran and Airbus) that there will be meaningful increases in spending. I doubt Germany will get to 2% any time soon, but the structural declines in European defence spending are over.
    For the German military to be in such bad shape after all they had in 1990 suggests they really ran it down since.
    They diverted spending from the military to reviving the East. It was probably the right call.
  • Options
    Speedy said:

    @Malmesbury Are we taking at cross purposes ? Or are you really comparing West Germany's defensive contribution to NATO with what I'm talking about ? A military capable of sustaining a Pax Europa ? Of defending the Baltics, Poland, Romania, Finland from the Russians ? It would be utterly unlike any military they've had since WW2.

    Try to convince the German finance minister to triple defence expenditure to protect Greece ect.
    TBF this should be a much easier thing to convince German voters of than sending money to protect Greek pensioners.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:



    Come on, be realistic. There isn't any world where Germans who have forced the government to shut down nuclear power plants on the basis of safety will ever allow for nuclear weapons to be made.

    There is a world, but it probably involves Russia invading a bunch of eastern European countries.
    Not very likely tbh, there is a reason Putin stopped at Crimea. Other than reabsorbing client states like Belarus I'm not sure how much effort Putin really wants to put into bothering Europe. If he tried to invade an EU nation the response militarily and economically would be devastating for Russia. The only upside might be that oil prices would go up with that kind of war. The Russian capacity to wage war with Europe is quite poor which is why they have picked off small targets like Chechnya, Georgia and Ukraine. Going into Poland, for example, is a non starter.
    I agree with all of that. Russia, ultimately, is a demographic disaster zone, dependent of the sale of oil and gas to the Europeans and Chinese. Unfortunately for them, new energy sources - whether LNG from Australia or the US, or solar and wind - are a long term drag on its primary industry.

    In China they have a word for Russia, they call it colloquially "the dying one". The danger is that, like a dying wasp, it stings before it expires.
    Or as my friend in the Diplomatic Service called it "Upper Volta with Rockets"
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,992
    Betting related:

    Alain Juppe around evens on Betfair.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    ITV
    Two men arrested on suspicion of attempted murder after soldier was stabbed in military barracks
    https://t.co/0ErZ2ThJ7E https://t.co/oYA3XUju4O
  • Options
    shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    This is going to run and run..

    " Donald Trump's new chief strategist Steve Bannon 'will call Nigel Farage before Theresa May'"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/14/exclusive-donald-trumps-new-chief-strategist-steve-bannon-will-c/

    Steve&Nige go back years&years..
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,785
    Sean_F said:

    Liberal, rational, centrist politicians need to take a long hard look at themselves, and ask, why are they losing?

    They can say simply that the voters are stupid (the Matthew Parris approach). They don't know how lucky they are. Perhaps, the answer is to end democracy, so they can remain in power a bit longer.

    Or maybe, the answer requires a bit of hard thinking. Are they doing things that are wrong?

    It's an excellent question and one that exercises me as someone who thinks liberalism is a force for good.

    The problem is that the liberal consensus and ascendancy that held sway in the West since the Second World War in response to that catastrophe is widely seen to have failed and is breaking down. So we are returning to the 1930's - excepting genocide by mad dictators and global war, but the other aspects of that grim decade - which saw the death of liberalism just as we are seeing again now.

    Liberals need to make the case for the authority of international rules, respect for others and the state not interfering unduly in the way people live their lives - all liberal values - because these things are good.

  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:



    Come on, be realistic. There isn't any world where Germans who have forced the government to shut down nuclear power plants on the basis of safety will ever allow for nuclear weapons to be made.

    There is a world, but it probably involves Russia invading a bunch of eastern European countries.
    Not very likely tbh, there is a reason Putin stopped at Crimea. Other than reabsorbing client states like Belarus I'm not sure how much effort Putin really wants to put into bothering Europe. If he tried to invade an EU nation the response militarily and economically would be devastating for Russia. The only upside might be that oil prices would go up with that kind of war. The Russian capacity to wage war with Europe is quite poor which is why they have picked off small targets like Chechnya, Georgia and Ukraine. Going into Poland, for example, is a non starter.
    Thats quite possibly true, Max. Russia hasn't got the mass armies (literally armies) that it had in before the collapse of the communists turned the country into a free for all.

    What it does now have is a professional and growing army of about 250,000 and another equal amount of personnel in the in the airforce and navy. Not enough to launch any large scale offensive in Europe. What it will be in another couple of years is another matter.
This discussion has been closed.