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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just a third of voters tell ICM that they’re happy with “unconditional BREXIT” with the young most opposed

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Nigelb

First ?

JosiasJessop

Second?

TheWhiteRabbit

If the terms agreed mean I'd be obliged to sign away my first born, maybe not. On the other hand if the EU agree to pay each of us £1,000 per month then I can live with that.

PeterMannion

"piss-poor"

Really necessary?

SouthamObserver

Hard-Brexiteers cosying up to Trump are not going to help their get out as quickly as possible at any price strategy.

midwinter

Quelle surprise to see the gilded generation with their final salary pensions and mortgages paid off in favour of something that will make absolutely zero difference to them financially.
Must be comforting to know that governments of all hue will bend over backwards to help you and someone else will pick up the tab.

MarkHopkins

Computers will be replacing pundits in the future. This software correctly predicted the last 3 US elections, including Trump's "unexpected" victory:-

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/28/donald-trump-will-win-the-election-and-is-more-popular-than-obama-in-2008-ai-system-finds.html

http://uk.businessinsider.com/artificial-intelligence-trump-win-2016-10

logical_song

Brexit mean ..... er well what exactly does it mean?

rkrkrk

I think enough of the public doesn't believe there is a significant tradeoff on economy vs immigration.

Until they see the realities of that tradeoff (assuming it exists) - I'm not sure what good polling it is.

TheScreamingEagles

PeterMannion said:

"piss-poor"

Really necessary?

Normal adjectives aren't sufficient for the awfulness of Mr Corbyn

ThreeQuidder

"This is a very hard thing to poll on"

Generous of you to admit the header is meaningless... apart from it does show signs that the author is still at Stage One.

ThreeQuidder

FPT:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunu said:

What is an exburb? In the analysis of trumps victory I keep reading he won these bigly. Which towns/cities would be simmilar if any in the U.K?

An exurb is one of those rich only commutable by car areas outside the city's suburbs.

So the British equivalent would be the stockbroker belt for London and places like Alderley Edge and Prestbury for Manchester?

TheScreamingEagles

I reckon this is to do with the actualité of Brexit not matching up to the hype of the Leavers pre June 23rd

TheScreamingEagles

ThreeQuidder said:

FPT:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunu said:

What is an exburb? In the analysis of trumps victory I keep reading he won these bigly. Which towns/cities would be simmilar if any in the U.K?

An exurb is one of those rich only commutable by car areas outside the city's suburbs.

So the British equivalent would be the stockbroker belt for London and places like Alderley Edge and Prestbury for Manchester?

I think so. Dore is another possibility, though it does have a train station...

Pulpstar

Middle option bias shocker.

Actually "unconditional exit" has it beaten.

This poll means OUT, no two ways about it.

taffys

Events are strengthening May's negotiating hand almost by the day...

TudorRose

Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?

In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.

FF43

How nice to feel young again.

Pulpstar

TudorRose said:

Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?

In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.

This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.

PlatoSaid

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/11/president-elect-trump-taps-effective-anti-illegal-immigration-official-run-immigration-team/

Trump just tapped the country’s biggest hard-liner on illegal immigration, Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, to run his immigration team.

Washington Post reports:

One of the nation’s leading immigration hard-liners is working with Donald Trump’s presidential transition team.

Kris Kobach, the Kansas secretary of state, told a Wichita-based television station he was consulting with Trump insiders on the future of U.S. immigration policy.

“I’m a member of the immigration policy transition team, and there’s going to be a lot to do there, in part because Mr. Trump and Mr. Obama are diametrical opposites when it comes to immigration policy, so there will be a lot of changes,” Kobach told KWCH.

TheWhiteRabbit

Pulpstar said:

Middle option bias shocker.

Actually "unconditional exit" has it beaten.

This poll means OUT, no two ways about it.

Even TSE knows this poll was designed to do that. But Support Unconditionally clearly ahead of Oppose Unconditionally.

If the other options were "Support with conditions" and "Oppose with conditions" we would have a clearer result.

ThreeQuidder

TheScreamingEagles said:

ThreeQuidder said:

FPT:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunu said:

What is an exburb? In the analysis of trumps victory I keep reading he won these bigly. Which towns/cities would be simmilar if any in the U.K?

An exurb is one of those rich only commutable by car areas outside the city's suburbs.

So the British equivalent would be the stockbroker belt for London and places like Alderley Edge and Prestbury for Manchester?

I think so. Dore is another possibility, though it does have a train station...

So do Prestbury and Alderley, and much of what is (or was) considered the stockbroker belt. The concept of "commutable but only by car" doesn't really exist in England (I don't know Scotland, Wales or NI well enough to comment) - I guess because the cities grew up with the railways.

AlastairMeeks

PeterMannion said:

"piss-poor"

Really necessary?

Would you prefer "urinously underwhelming"?

MaxPB

I don't get the doom and gloom for Brexit based on this poll. 64% of British people support some form of Brexit vs 24% who oppose Brexit. That looks like a terrible poll for continuity remainers.

Pulpstar

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ThreeQuidder said:

FPT:

TheScreamingEagles said:

nunu said:

What is an exburb? In the analysis of trumps victory I keep reading he won these bigly. Which towns/cities would be simmilar if any in the U.K?

An exurb is one of those rich only commutable by car areas outside the city's suburbs.

So the British equivalent would be the stockbroker belt for London and places like Alderley Edge and Prestbury for Manchester?

I think so. Dore is another possibility, though it does have a train station...

So do Prestbury and Alderley, and much of what is (or was) considered the stockbroker belt. The concept of "commutable but only by car" doesn't really exist in England (I don't know Scotland, Wales or NI well enough to comment) - I guess because the cities grew up with the railways.

Eh ?

I'm commutable by car only to my job. I'll assure you it definitely exists.

Morris_Dancer

Or: "Unconditional Brexit the most popular option"

Or "Fewer than one in four oppose Brexit".

TudorRose

Pulpstar said:

TudorRose said:

Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?

In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.

This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.

We're all* Brexiteers now!

*well - 73% of us anyway....

Mortimer

Or, to look at it another way, Unconditional the most popular of all options

Pulpstar

MaxPB said:

I don't get the doom and gloom for Brexit based on this poll. 64% of British people support some form of Brexit vs 24% who oppose Brexit. That looks like a terrible poll for continuity remainers.

People need to stop looking at polling through their preferred sunglasses and see what it is actually trying to tell us.

This poll was clearly designed for middle option bias, the fact that Brexit unconditional has won is a sure sign that a 2nd referendum would lead to the same result, if not a heavier defeat for remain.

AlastairMeeks

This poll tells us something. I agree that there is inevitably middle option bias but it does suggest that an awful lot of people are results merchants (which is pragmatic and sensible).

AndyJS

O/T

"Children in Swindon failed by schools 'at every level'"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-37971338

Tissue_Price

TheScreamingEagles said:

I reckon this is to do with the actualité of Brexit not matching up to the hype of the Leavers pre June 23rd

The growth figures suggest it doesn't match up to the hype of the Remainers either.

MaxPB

AlastairMeeks said:

This poll tells us something. I agree that there is inevitably middle option bias but it does suggest that an awful lot of people are results merchants (which is pragmatic and sensible).

It means two thirds of the country are open to some form of Brexit and a third at whatever the cost. Pretty awful for anyone who wants to rerun the referendum.

david_herdson

TudorRose said:

Pulpstar said:

TudorRose said:

Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?

In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.

This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.

We're all* Brexiteers now!

*well - 73% of us anyway....

Bit cheeky to include the Don't Knows.

FF43

TudorRose said:

Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?

In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.

I agree. There's a leading question here. There is also a lack of clarity that works the other way. We have had a vote which decided on exit. Could you support Brexit because a decision has been made, even if you think it's a bad idea or would rather know what we were getting ourselves into before coming to an opinion? In other words you oppose Brexit on the principle but support the implementation of a policy that has been agreed. If you are "opposed" or potentially opposed "depending on the terms" would you actually choose to overturn a Brexit decision?

Pulpstar

david_herdson said:

TudorRose said:

Pulpstar said:

TudorRose said:

Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?

In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.

This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.

We're all* Brexiteers now!

*well - 73% of us anyway....

Bit cheeky to include the Don't Knows.

Don't know = Won't vote, probably.

Tissue_Price

Pulpstar said:

david_herdson said:

TudorRose said:

Pulpstar said:

TudorRose said:

Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?

In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.

This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.

We're all* Brexiteers now!

*well - 73% of us anyway....

Bit cheeky to include the Don't Knows.

Don't know = Won't vote, probably.

But will get included in memes after the result.

felix

PeterMannion said:

"piss-poor"

Really necessary?

OGH always understates and Jeremy Corbyn would be fortunate to be only 'piss-poor'.

Mortimer

Pulpstar said:

MaxPB said:

I don't get the doom and gloom for Brexit based on this poll. 64% of British people support some form of Brexit vs 24% who oppose Brexit. That looks like a terrible poll for continuity remainers.

People need to stop looking at polling through their preferred sunglasses and see what it is actually trying to tell us.

This poll was clearly designed for middle option bias, the fact that Brexit unconditional has won is a sure sign that a 2nd referendum would lead to the same result, if not a heavier defeat for remain.

I've been saying the latter for a long time. British people do not like to be asked the same question twice.

After:

Indyref
May 2015
Brexit
and Trump

You'd think people would start listening to me more carefully....

david_herdson

Pulpstar said:

TudorRose said:

Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?

In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.

This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.

Yes. Looks that way. Pretty clear structural advantage for Leave.

Pro_Rata

MaxPB said:

I don't get the doom and gloom for Brexit based on this poll. 64% of British people support some form of Brexit vs 24% who oppose Brexit. That looks like a terrible poll for continuity remainers.

I'd be 'It Depends on Terms' for me. A very soft Brexit would allow me to breathe a big sigh of relief, and it is what we voted for, which has some weight with almost everyone.

Of course, a serious change in circumstances, such as bad Trump or Baltic invasion or economic meltdown would have me off calling for second referendum faster than a ferret up a drainpipe.

So I don't think you can take this poll as representing any shift in opinion in either direction for the underlying two-way question.

felix

A very bad poll for the polling industry - if ICM cannot construct a sensible range of options how can we possibly expect a sensible range of responses.

Pulpstar

Corbyn doesn't pass the sniff test in my office.

My Lib-Dem -> UKIP switcher colleague would have voted Trump, Corbyn on null points here.

MaxPB

Pulpstar said:

MaxPB said:

I don't get the doom and gloom for Brexit based on this poll. 64% of British people support some form of Brexit vs 24% who oppose Brexit. That looks like a terrible poll for continuity remainers.

People need to stop looking at polling through their preferred sunglasses and see what it is actually trying to tell us.

This poll was clearly designed for middle option bias, the fact that Brexit unconditional has won is a sure sign that a 2nd referendum would lead to the same result, if not a heavier defeat for remain.

Yes, I don't see how anyone who wants a second referendum or even the softest/flaccid-Brexit camp can be happy with 32% of British people supporting Brexit at whatever the cost and a further third giving it conditional support.

FF43

david_herdson said:

Pulpstar said:

TudorRose said:

Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?

In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.

This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.

Yes. Looks that way. Pretty clear structural advantage for Leave.

If the "Depends on terms" crowd get what they want. In reality Brexit will be an intractable mess where there won't be a clear set of terms where people can say, "Yep, I can sign up to those!"

MaxPB

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

Pulpstar said:

TudorRose said:

Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?

In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.

This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.

Yes. Looks that way. Pretty clear structural advantage for Leave.

If the "Depends on terms" crowd get what they want. In reality Brexit will be an intractable mess where there won't be a clear set of terms where people can say, "Yep, I can sign up to those!"

You hope.

FF43

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

Pulpstar said:

TudorRose said:

Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?

In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.

This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.

Yes. Looks that way. Pretty clear structural advantage for Leave.

If the "Depends on terms" crowd get what they want. In reality Brexit will be an intractable mess where there won't be a clear set of terms where people can say, "Yep, I can sign up to those!"

You hope.

I don't hope. It's what it is. The inherent contradiction of Brexit is shown up in this poll by the 32% who say "it depends on terms" AFTER the decision to go ahead has been made. if there was majority support for Brexit come what may, that would be different.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. 43, it will be difficult to disentangle the UK. But the other side must be considered too. As the EU integrates ever more and dreams of an EU Army, that won't entice floating voters to return.

"Vote for Brussels to command the British Army" is not a rallying call that will win much support.

Tim_B

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 43, it will be difficult to disentangle the UK. But the other side must be considered too. As the EU integrates ever more and dreams of an EU Army, that won't entice floating voters to return.

"Vote for Brussels to command the British Army" is not a rallying call that will win much support.

"Waterloo vanquished to command British Army""

Pulpstar

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

Pulpstar said:

TudorRose said:

Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?

In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.

This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.

Yes. Looks that way. Pretty clear structural advantage for Leave.

If the "Depends on terms" crowd get what they want. In reality Brexit will be an intractable mess where there won't be a clear set of terms where people can say, "Yep, I can sign up to those!"

You hope.

I don't hope. It's what it is. The inherent contradiction of Brexit is shown up in this poll by the 32% who say "it depends on terms" AFTER the decision to go ahead has been made. if there was majority support for Brexit come what may, that would be different.

My belief is that

Brexit will probably be an intractable mess.

Leave would win a second referendum come what may.

FF43

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 43, it will be difficult to disentangle the UK. But the other side must be considered too. As the EU integrates ever more and dreams of an EU Army, that won't entice floating voters to return.

"Vote for Brussels to command the British Army" is not a rallying call that will win much support.

I agree, if the EU collapses that would resolve the issue and we would be feeling very smug to have got out earlier.

Depending on others to collapse of their own accord isn't a reliable strategy however.

FF43

Pulpstar said:

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

Pulpstar said:

TudorRose said:

Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?

In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.

This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.

Yes. Looks that way. Pretty clear structural advantage for Leave.

If the "Depends on terms" crowd get what they want. In reality Brexit will be an intractable mess where there won't be a clear set of terms where people can say, "Yep, I can sign up to those!"

You hope.

I don't hope. It's what it is. The inherent contradiction of Brexit is shown up in this poll by the 32% who say "it depends on terms" AFTER the decision to go ahead has been made. if there was majority support for Brexit come what may, that would be different.

My belief is that

Brexit will probably be an intractable mess.

Leave would win a second referendum come what may.

I agree with all that. Brexit will happen. Not happening is a worse option again than it happening, at this stage.

Tissue_Price

Mortimer said:

Pulpstar said:

MaxPB said:

I don't get the doom and gloom for Brexit based on this poll. 64% of British people support some form of Brexit vs 24% who oppose Brexit. That looks like a terrible poll for continuity remainers.

People need to stop looking at polling through their preferred sunglasses and see what it is actually trying to tell us.

This poll was clearly designed for middle option bias, the fact that Brexit unconditional has won is a sure sign that a 2nd referendum would lead to the same result, if not a heavier defeat for remain.

I've been saying the latter for a long time. British people do not like to be asked the same question twice.

After:

Indyref
May 2015
Brexit
and Trump

You'd think people would start listening to me more carefully....

Obviously we won't have another referendum next year, but if we magically did, my opening prices would be something like:

Leave 4/11
Remain 2/1

The idea of a referendum on the "final deal" is for the birds, as the alternative to leaving with the deal is exit with no deal. (The same position the MPs will be in...)

MaxPB

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

Pulpstar said:

TudorRose said:

Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?

In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.

This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.

Yes. Looks that way. Pretty clear structural advantage for Leave.

If the "Depends on terms" crowd get what they want. In reality Brexit will be an intractable mess where there won't be a clear set of terms where people can say, "Yep, I can sign up to those!"

You hope.

I don't hope. It's what it is. The inherent contradiction of Brexit is shown up in this poll by the 32% who say "it depends on terms" AFTER the decision to go ahead has been made. if there was majority support for Brexit come what may, that would be different.

It's what you think it is, or as I believe, what you hope it is. This time last week the reality was that Hillary would win the election and be a mediocre POTUS. In your version of reality Brexit is a disaster, who really knows what is going to happen three years from now. I certainly don't. What happens in a scenario where Juppé has to offer a Frexit vote and France votes to Leave? Would Brexit still be a disaster? Trump has already changed the game for Brexit because of his NATO stance, Europe might suddenly be more amenable to British demands on immigration and trade if they can't be sure that the US will protect the eastern border. Again, your predictions of doom are based completely on your hopes and feelings of EUphillia. It could be a disaster, but then again it might not be, personally I think it will end up being average. Not the best we could hope for (single market membership with a full veto on migration and early stage vetoes on regulations) but also acceptable to enough people and businesses that everyone will get on with their lives. I'm open to either outcome. Your hopes that this country will suffer and the EU will prosper are telling, but that's your own problem.

david_kendrick1

It is widely accepted that rail privatisation was not one of the more sure-footed privatisations. And yet passenger numbers have approximately doubled since.

'A bad privatisation is better than no privitisation'.

We nearly all live here, and so it is in all interests to have a 'good' Bexit. Similarly,

'A bad brexit is better than no brexit'

TudorRose

FF43 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 43, it will be difficult to disentangle the UK. But the other side must be considered too. As the EU integrates ever more and dreams of an EU Army, that won't entice floating voters to return.

"Vote for Brussels to command the British Army" is not a rallying call that will win much support.

I agree, if the EU collapses that would resolve the issue and we would be feeling very smug to have got out earlier.

Depending on others to collapse of their own accord isn't a reliable strategy however.

But nor is depending on others to move towards to a form of the EU that would be acceptable to a majority of the UK population, which is really what Cameron argued.

Jonathan

david_kendrick1 said:

It is widely accepted that rail privatisation was not one of the more sure-footed privatisations. And yet passenger numbers have approximately doubled since.

'A bad privatisation is better than no privitisation'.

We nearly all live here, and so it is in all interests to have a 'good' Bexit. Similarly,

'A bad brexit is better than no brexit'

No evidence to say that privatisation cause passenger numbers to go up. House prices are a more likely cause.

MattW

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

Pulpstar said:

TudorRose said:

Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?

In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.

This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.

Yes. Looks that way. Pretty clear structural advantage for Leave.

If the "Depends on terms" crowd get what they want. In reality Brexit will be an intractable mess where there won't be a clear set of terms where people can say, "Yep, I can sign up to those!"

You hope.

I don't hope. It's what it is. The inherent contradiction of Brexit is shown up in this poll by the 32% who say "it depends on terms" AFTER the decision to go ahead has been made. if there was majority support for Brexit come what may, that would be different.

It's what you think it is, or as I believe, what you hope it is. This time last week the reality was that Hillary would win the election and be a mediocre POTUS. In your version of reality Brexit is a disaster, who really knows what is going to happen three years from now. I certainly don't. What happens in a scenario where Juppé has to offer a Frexit vote and France votes to Leave? Would Brexit still be a disaster? Trump has already changed the game for Brexit because of his NATO stance, Europe might suddenly be more amenable to British demands on immigration and trade if they can't be sure that the US will protect the eastern border. Again, your predictions of doom are based completely on your hopes and feelings of EUphillia. It could be a disaster, but then again it might not be, personally I think it will end up being average. Not the best we could hope for (single market membership with a full veto on migration and early stage vetoes on regulations) but also acceptable to enough people and businesses that everyone will get on with their lives. I'm open to either outcome. Your hopes that this country will suffer and the EU will prosper are telling, but that's your own problem.

The real solution for this is for continental Europe to rise from its defence policy deckchair and start taking security seriously.

Unless they wish to be put on by Putin.

Tim_B

Wandering through the current state of the Democratic Party post-election, it's not too good for them. -

69 of 99 state legislative chambers are now controlled by Republicans

24 states have a Republican governor and entire Republican control of the legislature. 6 states have democratic governors and democratic controlled legislatures.

There are 34 Republican governors. 16 Democratic governors.

But the real stunner is this -

Fully 1/3 of the caucus of the democratic party in the US House of Representatives comes from just 3 states – Massachusetts, New York and California. That's a bad sign.

This is where 8 years of Obama's leadership and policies have left them. One has to hope that for the sake of the two party system it doesn't get any worse. The party has strayed far from its history as an inclusive organization projecting American values and needs to return to it.

rcs1000

The Chinese response to Mr Trump's trade proposals.

http://arstechnica.com/business/2016/11/china-threatens-end-iphone-sales-if-trump-imposes-stiff-tariffs/

john_zims

@MaxPB

'I don't get the doom and gloom for Brexit based on this poll. 64% of British people support some form of Brexit vs 24% who oppose Brexit. That looks like a terrible poll for continuity remainers.'


The poll is actually the reverse of doom & gloom,my kids for example who were ardent Remainers have gone passed it and now say get on with it.

But,why should this poll be any more accurate than all the other fails over the past two years ?

MaxPB

rcs1000 said:

The Chinese response to Mr Trump's trade proposals.

http://arstechnica.com/business/2016/11/china-threatens-end-iphone-sales-if-trump-imposes-stiff-tariffs/

The rest of south east Asia just rejoiced from all the jobs that will move out of China building US goods!

MarkHopkins

Tissue_Price said:

Mortimer said:

Pulpstar said:

MaxPB said:

I don't get the doom and gloom for Brexit based on this poll. 64% of British people support some form of Brexit vs 24% who oppose Brexit. That looks like a terrible poll for continuity remainers.

People need to stop looking at polling through their preferred sunglasses and see what it is actually trying to tell us.

This poll was clearly designed for middle option bias, the fact that Brexit unconditional has won is a sure sign that a 2nd referendum would lead to the same result, if not a heavier defeat for remain.

I've been saying the latter for a long time. British people do not like to be asked the same question twice.

After:

Indyref
May 2015
Brexit
and Trump

You'd think people would start listening to me more carefully....

Obviously we won't have another referendum next year, but if we magically did, my opening prices would be something like:

Leave 4/11
Remain 2/1

The idea of a referendum on the "final deal" is for the birds, as the alternative to leaving with the deal is exit with no deal. (The same position the MPs will be in...)

It's not quite the same positions as MPs. They will have the chance to influence the government in the mean time, with their usual political skillz.

A one-off referendum on the deal is pointless.

MarqueeMark

So, excluding Don't Knows, the "Oppose Brexit" vote in July of 48% is now down to 26%.

Good news for May, bad news for Farron. The Remainers are on the wrong side of the slide....

williamglenn

MaxPB said:

What happens in a scenario where Juppé has to offer a Frexit vote and France votes to Leave?

0% chance. It's not even definite that Le Pen would do so despite the anti-EU rhetoric.

MaxPB

MattW said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

Pulpstar said:

TudorRose said:

Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?

In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.

This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.

Yes. Looks that way. Pretty clear structural advantage for Leave.

If the "Depends on terms" crowd get what they want. In reality Brexit will be an intractable mess where there won't be a clear set of terms where people can say, "Yep, I can sign up to those!"

You hope.

I don't hope. It's what it is. The inherent contradiction of Brexit is shown up in this poll by the 32% who say "it depends on terms" AFTER the decision to go ahead has been made. if there was majority support for Brexit come what may, that would be different.

It's what you think it is, or as I believe, what you hope it is. This time last week the reality was that Hillary would win the election and be a mediocre POTUS. In your version of reality Brexit is a disaster, who really knows what is going to happen three years from now. I certainly don't. What happens in a scenario where Juppé has to offer a Frexit vote and France votes to Leave? Would Brexit still be a disaster? Trump has already changed the game for Brexit because of his NATO stance, Europe might suddenly be more amenable to British demands on immigration and trade if they can't be sure that the US will protect the eastern border. Again, your predictions of doom are based completely on your hopes and feelings of EUphillia. It could be a disaster, but then again it might not be, personally I think it will end up being average. Not the best we could hope for (single market membership with a full veto on migration and early stage vetoes on regulations) but also acceptable to enough people and businesses that everyone will get on with their lives. I'm open to either outcome. Your hopes that this country will suffer and the EU will prosper are telling, but that's your own problem.

The real solution for this is for continental Europe to rise from its defence policy deckchair and start taking security seriously.

Unless they wish to be put on by Putin.

Yes well, €117bn is the figure and that excludes the UK and mostly France who both meet the target on a long term basis. Germany needs to pony up. Trump is right here, it can't be left to the three major NATO powers to keep Europe's eastern border secure.

taffys

''The real solution for this is for continental Europe to rise from its defence policy deckchair and start taking security seriously.''

I think its a bit much for Britain to block an EU army on the one hand and tell Europe to pay more for defence on the other.

Cyclefree

Hello all.

I went to an interesting talk recently given by a former senior member of Blair's government. He correctly guessed that Trump would win.

On Brexit his thoughts were these:-

1. The Johnson, Davis and Fox trio were a joke and not the people needed to build the relationships needed to get the best deal possible for the UK.
2. May was running scared of the voters (his words) and would seek to prioritise immigration controls for fear of being washed away by the voters if she did not. It was implicit in what he said that he felt that this was not calculated to lead to the best possible decision making.
3. The chances of getting any sort of a deal with the EU within the 2-year time frame were low to non-existent. There was a huge amount of work to be done and the devil was in the details. Those in charge - see point 1 - did not do detail.
4. He did not think the EU wished us harm and would want some sort of deal but they felt that the economic consequences of being outside the EU would necessarily not be as good as being in the EU and Britain needed to understand that.
5. Dropping out of the EU without a deal in place and only WTO terms to fall back on would be very risky indeed and if the economy fell off a cliff he could envisage a Corbyn led Labour Party winning an election, an outcome he did not welcome.
6. He thought Corbyn was very thick indeed.
7. One possible interim solution would be to formally leave the EU in March 2019 but remain a member of the Single Market pro tem until an alternative was negotiated.
8. We should not underestimate how much polticians hate - really hate - lawyers. Politicians think that they can do everything and that lawyers are just there to stop them. The Article 50 court case will only have reinforced this view and this could be seen in the reaction of May and others.
9. He thought it quite likely that within a decade Scotland would have left the Union.

Incidentally, his general tone - despite being a Remainer - was quite sympathetic to why people outside London had voted leave and he saw no evidence of buyers' remorse.

david_herdson

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

Pulpstar said:

TudorRose said:

Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?

In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.

This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.

Yes. Looks that way. Pretty clear structural advantage for Leave.

If the "Depends on terms" crowd get what they want. In reality Brexit will be an intractable mess where there won't be a clear set of terms where people can say, "Yep, I can sign up to those!"

The structural advantage is that the determined Leavers have 10% more than the determined Remainers.

corporeal

Pulpstar said:

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

Pulpstar said:

TudorRose said:

Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?

In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.

This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.

Yes. Looks that way. Pretty clear structural advantage for Leave.

If the "Depends on terms" crowd get what they want. In reality Brexit will be an intractable mess where there won't be a clear set of terms where people can say, "Yep, I can sign up to those!"

You hope.

I don't hope. It's what it is. The inherent contradiction of Brexit is shown up in this poll by the 32% who say "it depends on terms" AFTER the decision to go ahead has been made. if there was majority support for Brexit come what may, that would be different.

My belief is that

Brexit will probably be an intractable mess.

Leave would win a second referendum come what may.

Mr Pulpstar, in regards to your question I meant thrown out as in hypothesised. I heard it discussed by pollsters in their post-mortems but as a possibility rather than something with solid evidence behind it.

(My three pieces got written as one long ramble in the pretty immediate aftermath of the election then sliced into PB appropriate chunks so in some cases got overtaken by information coming to light after I wrote it).

AlastairMeeks

Tim_B said:

Wandering through the current state of the Democratic Party post-election, it's not too good for them. -

69 of 99 state legislative chambers are now controlled by Republicans

24 states have a Republican governor and entire Republican control of the legislature. 6 states have democratic governors and democratic controlled legislatures.

There are 34 Republican governors. 16 Democratic governors.

But the real stunner is this -

Fully 1/3 of the caucus of the democratic party in the US House of Representatives comes from just 3 states – Massachusetts, New York and California. That's a bad sign.

This is where 8 years of Obama's leadership and policies have left them. One has to hope that for the sake of the two party system it doesn't get any worse. The party has strayed far from its history as an inclusive organization projecting American values and needs to return to it.

That's similar to Britain where 55% of all Labour seats in Parliament are now found in an English Core City (one of the big eight cities outside London) or in London itself.

SandyRentool

Only 23%* opposed. The 48% are now coming to their senses!

(*26% excluding DK)

TudorRose

Cyclefree said:

Hello all.

I went to an interesting talk recently given by a former senior member of Blair's government. He correctly guessed that Trump would win.

On Brexit his thoughts were these:-

1. The Johnson, Davis and Fox trio were a joke and not the people needed to build the relationships needed to get the best deal possible for the UK.
2. May was running scared of the voters (his words) and would seek to prioritise immigration controls for fear of being washed away by the voters if she did not. It was implicit in what he said that he felt that this was not calculated to lead to the best possible decision making.
3. The chances of getting any sort of a deal with the EU within the 2-year time frame were low to non-existent. There was a huge amount of work to be done and the devil was in the details. Those in charge - see point 1 - did not do detail.
4. He did not think the EU wished us harm and would want some sort of deal but they felt that the economic consequences of being outside the EU would necessarily not be as good as being in the EU and Britain needed to understand that.
5. Dropping out of the EU without a deal in place and only WTO terms to fall back on would be very risky indeed and if the economy fell off a cliff he could envisage a Corbyn led Labour Party winning an election, an outcome he did not welcome.
6. He thought Corbyn was very thick indeed.
7. One possible interim solution would be to formally leave the EU in March 2019 but remain a member of the Single Market pro tem until an alternative was negotiated.
8. We should not underestimate how much polticians hate - really hate - lawyers. Politicians think that they can do everything and that lawyers are just there to stop them. The Article 50 court case will only have reinforced this view and this could be seen in the reaction of May and others.
9. He thought it quite likely that within a decade Scotland would have left the Union.

Incidentally, his general tone - despite being a Remainer - was quite sympathetic to why people outside London had voted leave and he saw no evidence of buyers' remorse.

Well, he was definitely wrong on 6. Just ask Labour MPs!

MaxPB

AlastairMeeks said:

Tim_B said:

Wandering through the current state of the Democratic Party post-election, it's not too good for them. -

69 of 99 state legislative chambers are now controlled by Republicans

24 states have a Republican governor and entire Republican control of the legislature. 6 states have democratic governors and democratic controlled legislatures.

There are 34 Republican governors. 16 Democratic governors.

But the real stunner is this -

Fully 1/3 of the caucus of the democratic party in the US House of Representatives comes from just 3 states – Massachusetts, New York and California. That's a bad sign.

This is where 8 years of Obama's leadership and policies have left them. One has to hope that for the sake of the two party system it doesn't get any worse. The party has strayed far from its history as an inclusive organization projecting American values and needs to return to it.

That's similar to Britain where 55% of all Labour seats in Parliament are now found in an English Core City (one of the big eight cities outside London) or in London itself.

The parties of immigrants and the liberal chattering classes. Both parties are in long term decline, as evidenced by Corbyn and losing to the US version of Nigel.

Carolus_Rex

Cyclefree said:

Hello all.

I went to an interesting talk recently given by a former senior member of Blair's government. He correctly guessed that Trump would win.

On Brexit his thoughts were these:-

1. The Johnson, Davis and Fox trio were a joke and not the people needed to build the relationships needed to get the best deal possible for the UK.
2. May was running scared of the voters (his words) and would seek to prioritise immigration controls for fear of being washed away by the voters if she did not. It was implicit in what he said that he felt that this was not calculated to lead to the best possible decision making.
3. The chances of getting any sort of a deal with the EU within the 2-year time frame were low to non-existent. There was a huge amount of work to be done and the devil was in the details. Those in charge - see point 1 - did not do detail.
4. He did not think the EU wished us harm and would want some sort of deal but they felt that the economic consequences of being outside the EU would necessarily not be as good as being in the EU and Britain needed to understand that.
5. Dropping out of the EU without a deal in place and only WTO terms to fall back on would be very risky indeed and if the economy fell off a cliff he could envisage a Corbyn led Labour Party winning an election, an outcome he did not welcome.
6. He thought Corbyn was very thick indeed.
7. One possible interim solution would be to formally leave the EU in March 2019 but remain a member of the Single Market pro tem until an alternative was negotiated.
8. We should not underestimate how much polticians hate - really hate - lawyers. Politicians think that they can do everything and that lawyers are just there to stop them. The Article 50 court case will only have reinforced this view and this could be seen in the reaction of May and others.
9. He thought it quite likely that within a decade Scotland would have left the Union.

Incidentally, his general tone - despite being a Remainer - was quite sympathetic to why people outside London had voted leave and he saw no evidence of buyers' remorse.

I recall point no. 8 being impressed on me many years ago by a member of Blair's government (for all I know he may have been the same one - he was/is a lawyer as well). The argument was that a lot of politicians had backgrounds in local government where they kept being told the money they wanted for some pet project had to be spent elsewhere because somebody had sued the council ('sorry, Councillor, we can't build you new road. We need the money to renovate our entire housing stock because some tenants took us to court.')

Pulpstar

corporeal said:

Pulpstar said:

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

Pulpstar said:

TudorRose said:

Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?

In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.

This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.

Yes. Looks that way. Pretty clear structural advantage for Leave.

If the "Depends on terms" crowd get what they want. In reality Brexit will be an intractable mess where there won't be a clear set of terms where people can say, "Yep, I can sign up to those!"

You hope.

I don't hope. It's what it is. The inherent contradiction of Brexit is shown up in this poll by the 32% who say "it depends on terms" AFTER the decision to go ahead has been made. if there was majority support for Brexit come what may, that would be different.

My belief is that

Brexit will probably be an intractable mess.

Leave would win a second referendum come what may.

Mr Pulpstar, in regards to your question I meant thrown out as in hypothesised. I heard it discussed by pollsters in their post-mortems but as a possibility rather than something with solid evidence behind it.

(My three pieces got written as one long ramble in the pretty immediate aftermath of the election then sliced into PB appropriate chunks so in some cases got overtaken by information coming to light after I wrote it).

Thanks

FF43

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

I don't hope. It's what it is. The inherent contradiction of Brexit is shown up in this poll by the 32% who say "it depends on terms" AFTER the decision to go ahead has been made. if there was majority support for Brexit come what may, that would be different.

It's what you think it is, or as I believe, what you hope it is. This time last week the reality was that Hillary would win the election and be a mediocre POTUS. In your version of reality Brexit is a disaster, who really knows what is going to happen three years from now. I certainly don't. What happens in a scenario where Juppé has to offer a Frexit vote and France votes to Leave? Would Brexit still be a disaster? Trump has already changed the game for Brexit because of his NATO stance, Europe might suddenly be more amenable to British demands on immigration and trade if they can't be sure that the US will protect the eastern border. Again, your predictions of doom are based completely on your hopes and feelings of EUphillia. It could be a disaster, but then again it might not be, personally I think it will end up being average. Not the best we could hope for (single market membership with a full veto on migration and early stage vetoes on regulations) but also acceptable to enough people and businesses that everyone will get on with their lives. I'm open to either outcome. Your hopes that this country will suffer and the EU will prosper are telling, but that's your own problem.

This is libel. I demonstrably don't hope this country will suffer. I don't even think I have said Brexit will be a disaster, at least in economic terms. It could be painful and it certainly isn't a GOOD thing for our economy and living standards. The extent of the pain partly depends on politicians facing up to reality and acting with more circumspect than they have been doing.

Politically Brexit will be a mess however because it was sold on false assumptions about markets and Britain's place in the world and at some point the delusions will peel away and people will say, that wasn't what we were sold. Politically it's an Iraq War situation.

john_zims

@taffys

'I think its a bit much for Britain to block an EU army on the one hand and tell Europe to pay more for defence on the other.'

Why should the US,UK or France have to pay when Germany can't be arsed, it's not as if they can't afford it, the 2% contribution hasn't appeared overnight ?

JosiasJessop

Ms Free.

As ever, thanks for a very interesting comment.

FF43

david_herdson said:

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

Pulpstar said:

TudorRose said:

Something's wrong here.... The question says 'support or opposition', so shouldn't your chart say 'Oppose unconditionally'?

In which case less than a quarter of those surveyed are absolutely unwilling to accept some form of Brexit, which is a long way from the 48% who voted 'Remain' in June.

This is a desperately bad poll for "remain" I think.

Yes. Looks that way. Pretty clear structural advantage for Leave.

If the "Depends on terms" crowd get what they want. In reality Brexit will be an intractable mess where there won't be a clear set of terms where people can say, "Yep, I can sign up to those!"

The structural advantage is that the determined Leavers have 10% more than the determined Remainers.

You mean that diehard Remainers are unable to stop Brexit? I agree with that. But that's not the biggest problem with Brexit.

SandyRentool

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Tim_B said:

Wandering through the current state of the Democratic Party post-election, it's not too good for them. -

69 of 99 state legislative chambers are now controlled by Republicans

24 states have a Republican governor and entire Republican control of the legislature. 6 states have democratic governors and democratic controlled legislatures.

There are 34 Republican governors. 16 Democratic governors.

But the real stunner is this -

Fully 1/3 of the caucus of the democratic party in the US House of Representatives comes from just 3 states – Massachusetts, New York and California. That's a bad sign.

This is where 8 years of Obama's leadership and policies have left them. One has to hope that for the sake of the two party system it doesn't get any worse. The party has strayed far from its history as an inclusive organization projecting American values and needs to return to it.

That's similar to Britain where 55% of all Labour seats in Parliament are now found in an English Core City (one of the big eight cities outside London) or in London itself.

The parties of immigrants and the liberal chattering classes. Both parties are in long term decline, as evidenced by Corbyn and losing to the US version of Nigel.

Unfortunately both parties appear to have forgotten that they are primarily there to promote the interests of the working man/woman and their families. And now they (the parties) wonder why they can't guarantee to receive their votes.

taffys

''Why should the US,UK or France have to pay when Germany can't be arsed, it's not as if they can't afford it, the 2% contribution hasn't appeared overnight ?''

Then allow the EU to create its own army. Why are we blocking this? what's it got to do with us?

SouthamObserver

AlastairMeeks said:

Tim_B said:

Wandering through the current state of the Democratic Party post-election, it's not too good for them. -

69 of 99 state legislative chambers are now controlled by Republicans

24 states have a Republican governor and entire Republican control of the legislature. 6 states have democratic governors and democratic controlled legislatures.

There are 34 Republican governors. 16 Democratic governors.

But the real stunner is this -

Fully 1/3 of the caucus of the democratic party in the US House of Representatives comes from just 3 states – Massachusetts, New York and California. That's a bad sign.

This is where 8 years of Obama's leadership and policies have left them. One has to hope that for the sake of the two party system it doesn't get any worse. The party has strayed far from its history as an inclusive organization projecting American values and needs to return to it.

That's similar to Britain where 55% of all Labour seats in Parliament are now found in an English Core City (one of the big eight cities outside London) or in London itself.

Unlike Labour and the Tories, though, the Democrats get more votes than the Republicans on a regular basis.

And Democrat states drive the US economy.

FF43

Cyclefree said:

Hello all.

I went to an interesting talk recently given by a former senior member of Blair's government. He correctly guessed that Trump would win.

On Brexit his thoughts were these:-

1. The Johnson, Davis and Fox trio were a joke and not the people needed to build the relationships needed to get the best deal possible for the UK.
2. May was running scared of the voters (his words) and would seek to prioritise immigration controls for fear of being washed away by the voters if she did not. It was implicit in what he said that he felt that this was not calculated to lead to the best possible decision making.
3. The chances of getting any sort of a deal with the EU within the 2-year time frame were low to non-existent. There was a huge amount of work to be done and the devil was in the details. Those in charge - see point 1 - did not do detail.
4. He did not think the EU wished us harm and would want some sort of deal but they felt that the economic consequences of being outside the EU would necessarily not be as good as being in the EU and Britain needed to understand that.
5. Dropping out of the EU without a deal in place and only WTO terms to fall back on would be very risky indeed and if the economy fell off a cliff he could envisage a Corbyn led Labour Party winning an election, an outcome he did not welcome.
6. He thought Corbyn was very thick indeed.
7. One possible interim solution would be to formally leave the EU in March 2019 but remain a member of the Single Market pro tem until an alternative was negotiated.
8. We should not underestimate how much polticians hate - really hate - lawyers. Politicians think that they can do everything and that lawyers are just there to stop them. The Article 50 court case will only have reinforced this view and this could be seen in the reaction of May and others.
9. He thought it quite likely that within a decade Scotland would have left the Union.

Incidentally, his general tone - despite being a Remainer - was quite sympathetic to why people outside London had voted leave and he saw no evidence of buyers' remorse.

That's almost exactly my take, including sympathy towards those that voted Leave.

On point 7, which is likely to be semi-permanent, our* choices are no effective deal or no effective change. No effective change is less painful but it takes discretion and good will to agree to.

* OUR choice requires buy-in from EU partners as well as us

TheScreamingEagles

The Labour MP Jo Cox was shot three times and stabbed repeatedly in a pre-planned murder with a political or ideological motive, the trial of the accused man has been told.

Thomas Mair repeatedly said the words “Britain first” as he carried out the attack, Richard Whittam QC, prosecuting, told the Old Bailey on Monday. He struck as Cox went about her business in her constituency during the EU referendum campaign.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/nov/14/jo-cox-killed-in-politically-motivated-murder-trial-thomas-mair-hears?CMP=twt_gu

SouthamObserver

Carolus_Rex said:

Cyclefree said:

Hello all.

I went to an interesting talk recently given by a former senior member of Blair's government. He correctly guessed that Trump would win.

On Brexit his thoughts were these:-

1. The Johnson, Davis and Fox trio were a joke and not the people needed to build the relationships needed to get the best deal possible for the UK.
2. May was running scared of the voters (his words) and would seek to prioritise immigration controls for fear of being washed away by the voters if she did not. It was implicit in what he said that he felt that this was not calculated to lead to the best possible decision making.
3. The chances of getting any sort of a deal with the EU within the 2-year time frame were low to non-existent. There was a huge amount of work to be done and the devil was in the details. Those in charge - see point 1 - did not do detail.
4. He did not think the EU wished us harm and would want some sort of deal but they felt that the economic consequences of being outside the EU would necessarily not be as good as being in the EU and Britain needed to understand that.
5. Dropping out of the EU without a deal in place and only WTO terms to fall back on would be very risky indeed and if the economy fell off a cliff he could envisage a Corbyn led Labour Party winning an election, an outcome he did not welcome.
6. He thought Corbyn was very thick indeed.
7. One possible interim solution would be to formally leave the EU in March 2019 but remain a member of the Single Market pro tem until an alternative was negotiated.
8. We should not underestimate how much polticians hate - really hate - lawyers. Politicians think that they can do everything and that lawyers are just there to stop them. The Article 50 court case will only have reinforced this view and this could be seen in the reaction of May and others.
9. He thought it quite likely that within a decade Scotland would have left the Union.

Incidentally, his general tone - despite being a Remainer - was quite sympathetic to why people outside London had voted leave and he saw no evidence of buyers' remorse.

I recall point no. 8 being impressed on me many years ago by a member of Blair's government (for all I know he may have been the same one - he was/is a lawyer as well). The argument was that a lot of politicians had backgrounds in local government where they kept being told the money they wanted for some pet project had to be spent elsewhere because somebody had sued the council ('sorry, Councillor, we can't build you new road. We need the money to renovate our entire housing stock because some tenants took us to court.')

There is a similar dislike of lawyers in finance and in business. Essentially, they are risk managers who say No, so it's not a huge surprise.

SouthamObserver

FF43 said:

Cyclefree said:

Hello all.

I went to an interesting talk recently given by a former senior member of Blair's government. He correctly guessed that Trump would win.

On Brexit his thoughts were these:-

1. The Johnson, Davis and Fox trio were a joke and not the people needed to build the relationships needed to get the best deal possible for the UK.
2. May was running scared of the voters (his words) and would seek to prioritise immigration controls for fear of being washed away by the voters if she did not. It was implicit in what he said that he felt that this was not calculated to lead to the best possible decision making.
3. The chances of getting any sort of a deal with the EU within the 2-year time frame were low to non-existent. There was a huge amount of work to be done and the devil was in the details. Those in charge - see point 1 - did not do detail.
4. He did not think the EU wished us harm and would want some sort of deal but they felt that the economic consequences of being outside the EU would necessarily not be as good as being in the EU and Britain needed to understand that.
5. Dropping out of the EU without a deal in place and only WTO terms to fall back on would be very risky indeed and if the economy fell off a cliff he could envisage a Corbyn led Labour Party winning an election, an outcome he did not welcome.
6. He thought Corbyn was very thick indeed.
7. One possible interim solution would be to formally leave the EU in March 2019 but remain a member of the Single Market pro tem until an alternative was negotiated.
8. We should not underestimate how much polticians hate - really hate - lawyers. Politicians think that they can do everything and that lawyers are just there to stop them. The Article 50 court case will only have reinforced this view and this could be seen in the reaction of May and others.
9. He thought it quite likely that within a decade Scotland would have left the Union.

Incidentally, his general tone - despite being a Remainer - was quite sympathetic to why people outside London had voted leave and he saw no evidence of buyers' remorse.

That's almost exactly my take, including sympathy towards those that voted Leave.

On point 7, which is likely to be semi-permanent, our* choices are no effective deal or no effective change. No effective change is less painful but it takes discretion and good will to agree to.

* OUR choice requires buy-in from EU partners as well as us

The only one I would disagree with is 5. There is a snowball's chance in hell of Corbyn ever leading Labour to a general election victory, whatever the circumstances.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Taffys, so long as we're paying membership fees, we get a say. If the EU wants to end our fees, I'm sure that'd be accepted.

TheWhiteRabbit

SouthamObserver said:

Carolus_Rex said:

Cyclefree said:

Hello all.

I went to an interesting talk recently given by a former senior member of Blair's government. He correctly guessed that Trump would win.

On Brexit his thoughts were these:-

1. The Johnson, Davis and Fox trio were a joke and not the people needed to build the relationships needed to get the best deal possible for the UK.
2. May was running scared of the voters (his words) and would seek to prioritise immigration controls for fear of being washed away by the voters if she did not.
3. The chances of getting any sort of a deal with the EU within the 2-year time frame were low to non-existent. There was a huge amount of work to be done and the devil was in the details. Those in charge - see point 1 - did not do detail.
4. He did not think the EU wished us harm and would want some sort of deal but they felt that the economic consequences of being outside the EU would necessarily not be as good as being in the EU and Britain needed to understand that.
5. Dropping out of the EU without a deal in place and only WTO terms to fall back on would be very risky indeed and if the economy fell off a cliff he could envisage a Corbyn led Labour Party winning an election, an outcome he did not welcome.
6. He thought Corbyn was very thick indeed.
7. One possible interim solution would be to formally leave the EU in March 2019 but remain a member of the Single Market pro tem until an alternative was negotiated.
8. We should not underestimate how much polticians hate - really hate - lawyers. Politicians think that they can do everything and that lawyers are just there to stop them. The Article 50 court case will only have reinforced this view and this could be seen in the reaction of May and others.
9. He thought it quite likely that within a decade Scotland would have left the Union.

Incidentally, his general tone - despite being a Remainer - was quite sympathetic to why people outside London had voted leave and he saw no evidence of buyers' remorse.

I recall point no. 8 being impressed on me many years ago by a member of Blair's government (for all I know he may have been the same one - he was/is a lawyer as well). The argument was that a lot of politicians had backgrounds in local government where they kept being told the money they wanted for some pet project had to be spent elsewhere because somebody had sued the council ('sorry, Councillor, we can't build you new road. We need the money to renovate our entire housing stock because some tenants took us to court.')

There is a similar dislike of lawyers in finance and in business. Essentially, they are risk managers who say No, so it's not a huge surprise.

Plenty of clients of the firm I'm at don't like lawyers. They all pay the bill.

john_zims

@taffys


'Then allow the EU to create its own army. Why are we blocking this? what's it got to do with us?'

How & why are we blocking this as we are leaving the EU & without us there is no block ?

SouthamObserver

Tim_B said:

Wandering through the current state of the Democratic Party post-election, it's not too good for them. -

69 of 99 state legislative chambers are now controlled by Republicans

24 states have a Republican governor and entire Republican control of the legislature. 6 states have democratic governors and democratic controlled legislatures.

There are 34 Republican governors. 16 Democratic governors.

But the real stunner is this -

Fully 1/3 of the caucus of the democratic party in the US House of Representatives comes from just 3 states – Massachusetts, New York and California. That's a bad sign.

This is where 8 years of Obama's leadership and policies have left them. One has to hope that for the sake of the two party system it doesn't get any worse. The party has strayed far from its history as an inclusive organization projecting American values and needs to return to it.

Another good way of saving the two party system would be to end gerrymandering of congressional districts and to act aggressively against voter suppression. What are the chances, do you think?

rottenborough

FF43 said:

Cyclefree said:

Hello all.

I went to an interesting talk recently given by a former senior member of Blair's government. He correctly guessed that Trump would win.

On Brexit his thoughts were these:-

1. The Johnson, Davis and Fox trio were a joke and not the people needed to build the relationships needed to get the best deal possible for the UK.
2. May was running scared of the voters (his words) and would seek to prioritise immigration controls for fear of being washed away by the voters if she did not. It was implicit in what he said that he felt that this was not calculated to lead to the best possible decision making.
3. The chances of getting any sort of a deal with the EU within the 2-year time frame were low to non-existent. There was a huge amount of work to be done and the devil was in the details. Those in charge - see point 1 - did not do detail.
4. He did not think the EU wished us harm and would want some sort of deal but they felt that the economic consequences of being outside the EU would necessarily not be as good as being in the EU and Britain needed to understand that.
5. Dropping out of the EU without a deal in place and only WTO terms to fall back on would be very risky indeed and if the economy fell off a cliff he could envisage a Corbyn led Labour Party winning an election, an outcome he did not welcome.
6. He thought Corbyn was very thick indeed.
7. One possible interim solution would be to formally leave the EU in March 2019 but remain a member of the Single Market pro tem until an alternative was negotiated.
8. We should not underestimate how much polticians hate - really hate - lawyers. Politicians think that they can do everything and that lawyers are just there to stop them. The Article 50 court case will only have reinforced this view and this could be seen in the reaction of May and others.
9. He thought it quite likely that within a decade Scotland would have left the Union.

Incidentally, his general tone - despite being a Remainer - was quite sympathetic to why people outside London had voted leave and he saw no evidence of buyers' remorse.

That's almost exactly my take, including sympathy towards those that voted Leave.

On point 7, which is likely to be semi-permanent, our* choices are no effective deal or no effective change. No effective change is less painful but it takes discretion and good will to agree to.

* OUR choice requires buy-in from EU partners as well as us

Seems bizarre that politicians hate lawyers, half the commons must be made up of barristers.

AndyJS

Austrian election looks like it'll be just as close as it was the first time around:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_presidential_election,_2016#Second_round_re-vote

Pulpstar

SouthamObserver said:

Tim_B said:

Wandering through the current state of the Democratic Party post-election, it's not too good for them. -

69 of 99 state legislative chambers are now controlled by Republicans

24 states have a Republican governor and entire Republican control of the legislature. 6 states have democratic governors and democratic controlled legislatures.

There are 34 Republican governors. 16 Democratic governors.

But the real stunner is this -

Fully 1/3 of the caucus of the democratic party in the US House of Representatives comes from just 3 states – Massachusetts, New York and California. That's a bad sign.

This is where 8 years of Obama's leadership and policies have left them. One has to hope that for the sake of the two party system it doesn't get any worse. The party has strayed far from its history as an inclusive organization projecting American values and needs to return to it.

Another good way of saving the two party system would be to end gerrymandering of congressional districts and to act aggressively against voter suppression. What are the chances, do you think?

Democrats should also address their shocking mid term turnout issues. The ground for POTUS is shaped by those troops.

Nigelb

AlastairMeeks said:

PeterMannion said:

"piss-poor"

Really necessary?

Would you prefer "urinously underwhelming"?

Micturating mediocrity ?
Or is that too generous ?

MarqueeMark

SouthamObserver said:

Tim_B said:

Wandering through the current state of the Democratic Party post-election, it's not too good for them. -

69 of 99 state legislative chambers are now controlled by Republicans

24 states have a Republican governor and entire Republican control of the legislature. 6 states have democratic governors and democratic controlled legislatures.

There are 34 Republican governors. 16 Democratic governors.

But the real stunner is this -

Fully 1/3 of the caucus of the democratic party in the US House of Representatives comes from just 3 states – Massachusetts, New York and California. That's a bad sign.

This is where 8 years of Obama's leadership and policies have left them. One has to hope that for the sake of the two party system it doesn't get any worse. The party has strayed far from its history as an inclusive organization projecting American values and needs to return to it.

Another good way of saving the two party system would be to end gerrymandering of congressional districts and to act aggressively against voter suppression. What are the chances, do you think?

That Trump got North Carolina's EC votes on the back of egregious voter suppression is a real stain on the 2016 election. If that had made the difference, he would have a real problem with claiming a credible mandate, losing the popular vote too.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. JS, I do wonder if there'll be dodginess in Austria once again.

Pulpstar

AndyJS said:

Austrian election looks like it'll be just as close as it was the first time around:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_presidential_election,_2016#Second_round_re-vote

The map is SO similiar to the US and UK in terms of WHERE the right wing and left wing broadly are.

Every contest seemingly urban vs rural right now.

David_Evershed

john_zims said:

@taffys


'Then allow the EU to create its own army. Why are we blocking this? what's it got to do with us?'

How & why are we blocking this as we are leaving the EU & without us there is no block ?

The Uk wants EU countries to work within NATO rather than set up an EU offshoot that pulls away from NATO.

SouthamObserver

MarqueeMark said:

SouthamObserver said:

Tim_B said:

Wandering through the current state of the Democratic Party post-election, it's not too good for them. -

69 of 99 state legislative chambers are now controlled by Republicans

24 states have a Republican governor and entire Republican control of the legislature. 6 states have democratic governors and democratic controlled legislatures.

There are 34 Republican governors. 16 Democratic governors.

But the real stunner is this -

Fully 1/3 of the caucus of the democratic party in the US House of Representatives comes from just 3 states – Massachusetts, New York and California. That's a bad sign.

This is where 8 years of Obama's leadership and policies have left them. One has to hope that for the sake of the two party system it doesn't get any worse. The party has strayed far from its history as an inclusive organization projecting American values and needs to return to it.

Another good way of saving the two party system would be to end gerrymandering of congressional districts and to act aggressively against voter suppression. What are the chances, do you think?

That Trump got North Carolina's EC votes on the back of egregious voter suppression is a real stain on the 2016 election. If that had made the difference, he would have a real problem with claiming a credible mandate, losing the popular vote too.

It was also a big issue in Wisconsin.