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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes Indy/SMirror poll finds sharp rise in the economic trust lead for May/Hamond over Corbyn/McDonnell
Ahead of the Autumn statement, May & Hammond are seen as much more trusted on the than both Corbyn & McDonnell and Cameron & Osborne.
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Back to slightly more relevant matters and the ongoing A50/Brexit argument.
I voted LEAVE on June 23rd and don't regret doing so at the moment but I voted for the process rather than necessarily the outcome by which I mean I gave my trust to the Government (led by David Cameron at the time) to begin and take forward the process of withdrawing Britain from membership of the European Union.
Implicit in that (or so I thought) was the notion said Government would seek to obtain the best deal for the people of the United Kingdom (rather than just the Conservative Party).
Equally implicit on a personal level was the hope said outcome or new Treaty would be put to the British people either via a second referendum or as part of a General Election.
The terms on which we leave - the terms on which the Britain of the 2020s and beyond will conduct its economic affairs not just with the EU but with the rest of the world - are important and will define the kind of nation we will be for the rest of the first half of this century.
For me, that Treaty requires proper scrutiny and consideration not just in Parliament but beyond. That means the May Government needing to say what would happen if the Treaty was rejected either in parliament or by referendum or in a General Election.
I think Tim Farron (and let's do the man the simple courtesy of getting his name right) is wrong to hang A50 on the promise of a second referendum once the Treaty has been agreed.
The vote to LEAVE, whatever the legalistic nuances being offered, was for me and for most people an unequivocal signal to begin a process. What it wasn't was carte blanche support for whatever hard boiled, soft shoe shuffle or half baked Brexit negotiated by her Government.
To be honest, if May was any kind of leader or politician, she would gladly offer the British people the opportunity to approve or reject the post-EU Treaty in a referendum in June 2019 and explain clearly what she would do if the Treaty was rejected.
This ComRes poll DOES NOT include a full voting intention question, so please don't misrepresent the data tables, again.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/nov/12/tpp-trade-deal-congress-obama?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
Imagine if a Labour Chancellor suggested big capital spending and increasing public spending.
But Hammond's a Conservative so that's all right, isn't it ?
Do we still have a very large debt to service and deficit to manage or have we forgotten all about it or have the Conservatives started believing in the Magic Money Tree too ?
Over half of Britons say that MPs should follow the referendum result and vote for the UK to leave the EU when they vote on it in Parliament, whilst three in ten state that MPs should vote in accordance with their own judgement (57% v 30%).
· Briton’s are divided regarding whether the government should prioritise maintaining access to the single market so Britain can have free trade with the EU or prioritise reducing immigration from the EU (42% v 43%).
The interesting thing will be the reaction to the autumn statement.
How can anyone judge May and Hammond on the economy while we are still running on Osborne and Carney?
Does this possibly suggest somewhat of an over-reaction by commentators peddling the lines "rebellion against elites", "anti-establishment" etc etc.
I think it's often the case that people go out of their way to look for themes which they like to fit events.
There wasn't much of a rebellion against the elite at our GE 2015.
Different events happen for different reasons, things often come together by chance / random events.
Whatever, we owe him for stabilising our finances. How quickly people forget what he inherited in 2010. Shame it might all be wasted.
Osborne borrowed £225bn more than he said he would.
Yes, the deficit figures have come down from the awful numbers inherited by the Coalition in 2010 and there are some encouraging signs on the tax take from the City and elsewhere but overall the public finances are still in a mess and Hammond really has no room for giveaways or the like (even if that were his preference).
Some may think there's a pot of gold at the end of the Brexit rainbow - I take the view we haven't got a pot to pass in (or something like that).
So Front National, what like the KKK, first attracted you to Donald Trump?
https://twitter.com/Marion_M_Le_Pen/status/797489987583438852
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget/7846849/Budget-2010-Full-text-of-George-Osbornes-statement.html
Public sector net debt as a share of GDP currently stands at 83.3%.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x/pusf
Would any of the Osborne fans like my share of his extra debt ?
One of the polling errors from 2016 came from a lot of people being too shy to express their opinion that was controversial.
There were echoes in May's language about wanting to be a Government for all - do Conservatives now believing throwing money at problems solves them ? I'm sure they didn't think that way in Thatcher's time.
https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedBen/status/797147249113530368
It's the Economy stupid.
It's the Economy stupid.
It's the Economy stupid.
Not the headline economic numbers, but people's personal finances.
Some people thought Obama was a terrorist, they still voted for him for their wallet.
The mentality now is to splurge vast government spending to a party's client state - public sector workers under Labour and pensioners under the Conservatives - to keep their own voters consuming and voting loyally.
A change from economic progress giving electoral benefits to the electoral dimension being the focus of the economic policy.
The USA has become a country which takes from the average person and gives it to the 1%.
The average person wants a government which takes from the 1% and gives it to them.
This from 2013 shows how Obama failed to do that:
' Incomes among the richest fell more than 36% between 2007-09, compared with a decrease of 11.6% for the rest of Americans. But in the last three years, 95% of all income gains have gone to the richest 1%. '
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-24039202
Remember the term Champagne Socialist?
Now we have a new term, Limousine Liberal, exhibit A:
https://twitter.com/Vision365/status/797276626388209664
We're now about to embark on a massive experiment in Keynesian reflation (forgetting, as people always seem to, the bit about paying it back in the good times, to worry about if ever that time comes).
Meanwhile the Japanese financial jiggery-pokery stuff will, despite May's justifiable anxiety, either continue, or at least be kept very close at hand for the minute things start to look difficult.
There is a high chance the D/K simply hide their controversial views in public.
It must be said that these PBers believe that correct interpretation of opinion polls (spotting incorrect methodology and systematic bias) is the better tool.
More people hold taboo opinions than they will freely admit in polite company or to pollsters.
The hoi polloi don't know who or what the elite is/are.
'Not true. UKIP won over 100 seats at that election, surely?'
Can you remind us of how many seats the Lib Dem eurofanatics won at the last EU election .
The subsets that are broadly sympathetic are under 35, Scotland and London, so the obstacles they need to overcome are tuition fees, the SNP/Greens and Corbyn Central.
I can't see that happening.
LDs simply don't have a hope of recovery to 50 seats within the next few general elections
A 19 year old's libido surges to max after 24 hours and thereafter plateaus
Gangnam style!
'The details within the poll look pretty grim for the Lib Dem euro-led recovery strategy.'
Not many takers for a party that is determined to subvert democracy..
https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/797526165338656768
Back in September I wrote how Ed Balls could use Strictly to become the next Labour leader
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/03/everybody-salsa-for-the-real-labour-king-over-the-water/
http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/09/how-free-press-missed-mark-michigan-projection-clinton/93533726/
Just imagine him threatening Mrs May with a dance-off at PMQs
It is the best thing ever.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/797524276303773697
Find him a safe seat!
So we have stasis.
It's that bad / funny.
https://twitter.com/NewsMichigan/status/797026889709690880
The fact I tipped both at 100/1 would be the second best thing about that.
SouthamObserver said:
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I know. But it is a matter of fact that most American voters did not get the president they voted for.
Ahh the good old PV meme again.
It's odd that if the voting system was so unfair you would have thought the democrats would have changed it in the last 8 years of Obama or even during the Clinton years. Of course they would have lost the mass of electoral college votes California always guarantees them.
It's a system they were all more than happy with when they were winning. Just like Labour during their GE wins, Remainers while they thought they would win and democrats while they thought they were shoo ins.
Hypocrites all of them.
I can imagine Corbyn annoucing plans to ritually sacrifice every Tory in the land. It doesn't mean he's going to do it.
Do you have any basis in fact to suggest that Republicans plan to strip African Americans of citizenship?
Not possible.