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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trying to make sense of Tuesday’s dramatic result

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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    MP_SE said:

    The UK will supposedly be punished by the EU if a trade deal with the US is sought.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/797190459026210816

    I see the photo of Leonard Cohen - has he died yet again?
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MP_SE said:

    The UK will supposedly be punished by the EU if a trade deal with the US is sought.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/797190459026210816

    The EU doesn't have any leverage upon Britain as long as Trump is on our side.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @MP_SE

    'The UK will supposedly be punished by the EU if a trade deal with the US is sought.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/797190459026210816


    Bring it on.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MP_SE said:
    Do we even know from which party ?
    If it's only the usual suspects from Labour then who cares.
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    Given the government whipped his appointment to the justice select committee, this is potentially awkward news for the government as well as Keith Vaz:

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/797195487271153665

    The government's thinking in doing so is baffling.

    At least Carol Vorderman is still looking mighty fine.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    MP_SE said:
    Mainly SNP. Scotland Nil Party.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    Speedy said:

    MP_SE said:

    The UK will supposedly be punished by the EU if a trade deal with the US is sought.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/797190459026210816

    The EU doesn't have any leverage upon Britain as long as Trump is on our side.
    Indeed. Without the US and UK who protects the Eastern border of Europe? Germany and their 14 ancient tanks?
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    GeoffM said:
    a phoney?
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    GeoffM said:
    Ken Livingstone after a night on Tango hair dye?
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    GeoffM said:
    Very funny, Mr M. I think you have been living in your backwater too long. You are out of touch with the real world.
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    Tim_B said:

    MaxPB said:

    The BBC have updated the Juncker article with some quotes.

    Quoted by Luxembourg newspaper Le Quotidien, Mr Juncker, a former prime minister of the tiny state, continued: "In general the Americans pay no heed to Europe. As for Mr Trump, if I understand properly, he thinks Belgium is a village somewhere on our continent...

    "My honest opinion? With Mr Trump, we are going to waste two years while he tours a world he doesn't know."

    Fucking hell, what a complete dickhead.
    Yeah. I agree Trump is a complete dickhead. Good for Junker for pointing it out.
    You might not like his politics. You might think he is not a nice person.

    He just got elected president, against all the odds. Whatever he may be, dickhead is not one of them. Saying that merely reflects badly on you.
    He is a dickhead, but is now an elected dickhead.
    No, TSE's the one who wants to be elected dick-tator.
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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    Scott_P said:
    Does this 2nd referendum mean on the terms they want the government to try to get from the EU, or does it mean on the terms the government have actually managed to achieve from the EU?

    If the former, it seems a bit pointless, and if the latter, they're risking the electors voting for ultra-hard Brexit rather than whatever was negotiated.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    GeoffM said:
    I believe it is political heavyweight Tim Fallon.

    I never thought it would be possible to have negative charisma but this man has it.
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    PClipp said:

    GeoffM said:
    Very funny, Mr M. I think you have been living in your backwater too long. You are out of touch with the real world.
    Will 56 of the 80 be SNP MP's?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362
    edited November 2016
    MP_SE said:

    GeoffM said:
    I believe it is political heavyweight Tim Fallon.

    I never thought it would be possible to have negative charisma but this man has it.
    Tim Farron makes Ed Miliband look Churchillian.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    Speedy said:

    The EU doesn't have any leverage upon Britain as long as Trump is on our side.

    The EU has some leverage, but it it surely less today than it would have been if Clinton had been elected. I don't know what tactics will work when dealing with Trump, but I'd be bloody surprised if threats and abuse are the right way of going about it.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    john_zims said:

    @MP_SE

    'The UK will supposedly be punished by the EU if a trade deal with the US is sought.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/797190459026210816


    Bring it on.

    Ridiculous posturing if that is truly the sense of the EU position, and sounding increasingly desperate and powerless on their part.

    Has anyone been behind the firewall to read the full story and confirm the headline is in fact representative of the content of the story?
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Another map that shows the potencial of the Trump road for Republicans, the state of New York looks now like Pennsylvania before Trump at least geographically:

    https://twitter.com/chris_churchill/status/797125706400563200
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    Actually he was the least worse of the data analysts, probably because his troubles in the Primaries taught him a good lesson.

    Dr.Sam Wang was so bad that he is eating a bug.
    @RodCrosby was the best analyst

    2nd was fresh air,

    Nate placed for third.
    @RodCrosby's spreadsheet on Monday evening was showing a narrow Clinton win.

    It may well be that he saw value in betting against his prediction, I did. I got on Trump at 5.7 on Monday, as this appeared to be value compared with 538.

    Rod's rather nasty right wing politics have proven rather in tune with the times, hence his run of form (though he did not give a prediction for Brexit). Jacks ARSE was very good in earlier times as the mood, both in the UK and in the USA matched Jack's genteel liberal centralism. Unfortunately this is out of favour at present.
    Very unfair.

    Rod was just as good at predicting the 2005 General Election (and received a lot of flak from Tories who believed he was running down their chances).

    Jack scored a notable triumph in the 2015 General Election, but his arse was already showing signs of sclerosis in the Sindy. Sadly, the degeneration continued through Brexit and Trumpery.

    I may dislike Rod's politics, but I can appreciate his data analysis and modelling skills in election prediction.


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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Speedy said:

    Another map that shows the potencial of the Trump road for Republicans, the state of New York looks now like Pennsylvania before Trump at least geographically:

    https://twitter.com/chris_churchill/status/797125706400563200

    Thoughthe converse is also true. Look at red states like Kentucky, and the cities are blue.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,848
    MP_SE said:

    The UK will supposedly be punished by the EU if a trade deal with the US is sought.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/797190459026210816

    Who are they to dictate what we do when we've left the EU?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited November 2016

    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    Actually he was the least worse of the data analysts, probably because his troubles in the Primaries taught him a good lesson.

    Dr.Sam Wang was so bad that he is eating a bug.
    @RodCrosby was the best analyst

    2nd was fresh air,

    Nate placed for third.
    @RodCrosby's spreadsheet on Monday evening was showing a narrow Clinton win.

    It may well be that he saw value in betting against his prediction, I did. I got on Trump at 5.7 on Monday, as this appeared to be value compared with 538.

    Rod's rather nasty right wing politics have proven rather in tune with the times, hence his run of form (though he did not give a prediction for Brexit). Jacks ARSE was very good in earlier times as the mood, both in the UK and in the USA matched Jack's genteel liberal centralism. Unfortunately this is out of favour at present.
    Very unfair.

    Rod was just as good at predicting the 2005 General Election (and received a lot of flak from Tories who believed he was running down their chances).

    Jack scored a notable triumph in the 2015 General Election, but his arse was already showing signs of sclerosis in the Sindy. Sadly, the degeneration continued through Brexit and Trumpery.

    I may dislike Rod's politics, but I can appreciate his data analysis and modelling skills in election prediction.


    I too have followed his modelling, but his spreadsheet on Monday was forecasting a Clinton win.

    Rod got the 2015 election right (Jack was on Tories largest in a hung parliament). Jacks triumph was in 2010 and in the USA 2008 and 12.

    Jacks nurse wouldn't let him do a full ARSE this time, or indeed in the month before Brexit and Sindy.
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    Hertsmere_Pubgoer

    Are you really so ignorant about the SNP.

    They are the most open and rational of all about their strategy. They would not vote for a second referendum. They virtually alone in the Commons opposed the first one!

    They will not vote for article 50. Why should they? Every single one of their constituencies voted remain as did the country they represent decisively.

    Their First Minister has laid out their terms clearly - single market for Scotland, equal treatment for Europeans in Scotland and no removal of rights of workers and citizens currently guaranteed by European laws.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,848

    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    Actually he was the least worse of the data analysts, probably because his troubles in the Primaries taught him a good lesson.

    Dr.Sam Wang was so bad that he is eating a bug.
    @RodCrosby was the best analyst

    2nd was fresh air,

    Nate placed for third.
    @RodCrosby's spreadsheet on Monday evening was showing a narrow Clinton win.

    It may well be that he saw value in betting against his prediction, I did. I got on Trump at 5.7 on Monday, as this appeared to be value compared with 538.

    Rod's rather nasty right wing politics have proven rather in tune with the times, hence his run of form (though he did not give a prediction for Brexit). Jacks ARSE was very good in earlier times as the mood, both in the UK and in the USA matched Jack's genteel liberal centralism. Unfortunately this is out of favour at present.
    Very unfair.

    Rod was just as good at predicting the 2005 General Election (and received a lot of flak from Tories who believed he was running down their chances).

    Jack scored a notable triumph in the 2015 General Election, but his arse was already showing signs of sclerosis in the Sindy. Sadly, the degeneration continued through Brexit and Trumpery.

    I may dislike Rod's politics, but I can appreciate his data analysis and modelling skills in election prediction.


    Rod also stuck to his guns in 2010 when he the resolutely predicted a hung parliament against a Conservative majority... Much to the bewilderment of most of us at the time.

    As a predictor of elections and referendums in the ten years I've been on here he is the best you can't get away from it.
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    scotslass said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer

    Are you really so ignorant about the SNP.

    They are the most open and rational of all about their strategy. They would not vote for a second referendum. They virtually alone in the Commons opposed the first one!

    They will not vote for article 50. Why should they? Every single one of their constituencies voted remain as did the country they represent decisively.

    Their First Minister has laid out their terms clearly - single market for Scotland, equal treatment for Europeans in Scotland and no removal of rights of workers and citizens currently guaranteed by European laws.

    That was a party political broadcast on behalf of the Scottish National Party.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited November 2016
    Speedy said:

    Another map that shows the potencial (sic) of the Trump road for Republicans, the state of New York looks now like Pennsylvania before Trump at least geographically:

    https://twitter.com/chris_churchill/status/797125706400563200

    New York state (where I used to live) is like Florida, Pennsylvania and probably other states with which I am less familiar.

    In Pennsylvania the Democrats run up absolutely huge numbers of votes in Philly to counteract the remainder of the state which is - broadly speaking - Republican.

    Ditto in New york, where the Dems run up a massive vote count in the city to counter balance most of the rest of the state.

    In Florida it's Miami Dade, Broward county and parts of the I-4 corridor which tally huge Democratic vote counts.

    If you can dilute the huge local Dem vote counts then all things are possible.

    This is not true for all states though - by comparison California has much wider spread Dem support.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,865
    scotslass said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer

    Are you really so ignorant about the SNP.

    They are the most open and rational of all about their strategy. They would not vote for a second referendum. They virtually alone in the Commons opposed the first one!

    They will not vote for article 50. Why should they? Every single one of their constituencies voted remain as did the country they represent decisively.

    Their First Minister has laid out their terms clearly - single market for Scotland, equal treatment for Europeans in Scotland and no removal of rights of workers and citizens currently guaranteed by European laws.

    Bugger them.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,951
    Erm, are the people meant to be scared of 8MPs threatening to vote against Article 50?

    Farron is apparently devoid of common sense as well as political nous.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    That was a party political broadcast on behalf of the Scottish National Party.

    @KeithThomson90: England dragging us out of the World Cup against our will. Brexit all over again. #EnglandvScotland
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Sean_F said:

    scotslass said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer

    Are you really so ignorant about the SNP.

    They are the most open and rational of all about their strategy. They would not vote for a second referendum. They virtually alone in the Commons opposed the first one!

    They will not vote for article 50. Why should they? Every single one of their constituencies voted remain as did the country they represent decisively.

    Their First Minister has laid out their terms clearly - single market for Scotland, equal treatment for Europeans in Scotland and no removal of rights of workers and citizens currently guaranteed by European laws.

    Bugger them.
    I assume that's legal under EU diversity rules
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,953
    Tim_B said:

    Speedy said:

    Another map that shows the potencial (sic) of the Trump road for Republicans, the state of New York looks now like Pennsylvania before Trump at least geographically:

    https://twitter.com/chris_churchill/status/797125706400563200

    New York state (where I used to live) is like Florida, Pennsylvania and probably other states with which I am less familiar.

    In Pennsylvania the Democrats run up absolutely huge numbers of votes in Philly to counteract the remainder of the state which is - broadly speaking - Republican.

    Ditto in New york, where the Dems run up a massive vote count in the city to counter balance most of the rest of the state.

    In Florida it's Miami Dade, Broward county and parts of the I-4 corridor which tally huge Democratic vote counts.

    If you can dilute the huge local Dem vote counts then all things are possible.

    This is not true for all states though - by comparison California has much wider spread Dem support.
    Most of the countryside looks GOP except some areas of California, all of Massachussetts and Vermont !

    New Hampshire looks like they flipped coins to decide how to vote :D
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Mortimer said:

    Erm, are the people meant to be scared of 8MPs threatening to vote against Article 50?

    Farron is apparently devoid of common sense as well as political nous.

    No. It is kind of sad to see them swaggering round Westminster like they are still relevant.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,951
    scotslass said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer

    Are you really so ignorant about the SNP.

    They are the most open and rational of all about their strategy. They would not vote for a second referendum. They virtually alone in the Commons opposed the first one!

    They will not vote for article 50. Why should they? Every single one of their constituencies voted remain as did the country they represent decisively.

    Their First Minister has laid out their terms clearly - single market for Scotland, equal treatment for Europeans in Scotland and no removal of rights of workers and citizens currently guaranteed by European laws.

    And as with most SNP positions, it will have zero impact and gain close to zero respect from large swathes of Britain.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,848
    The dynasty rests of Chelsea now...
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Tim_B said:

    Sean_F said:

    scotslass said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer

    Are you really so ignorant about the SNP.

    They are the most open and rational of all about their strategy. They would not vote for a second referendum. They virtually alone in the Commons opposed the first one!

    They will not vote for article 50. Why should they? Every single one of their constituencies voted remain as did the country they represent decisively.

    Their First Minister has laid out their terms clearly - single market for Scotland, equal treatment for Europeans in Scotland and no removal of rights of workers and citizens currently guaranteed by European laws.

    Bugger them.
    I assume that's legal under EU diversity rules
    These days it's probably a Hate Crime if you don't.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,316
    Jonathan said:
    "Populists are not fascists. They prefer trade wars to actual wars; administrative border walls to more defensible fortifications. The maladies they seek to cure are not imaginary: uncontrolled rising immigration, widening inequality, free trade with “unfree” countries, and political cronyism are all things that a substantial section of the electorate have some reason to dislike. The problem with populism is that its remedies are wrong and, in fact, counterproductive.

    What we most have to fear—as was true of Brexit—is not therefore Armageddon, but something more prosaic: an attempt to reverse certain aspects of globalization, followed by disappointment when the snake oil does not really cure the patient’s ills, followed by the emergence of a new and ostensibly more progressive set of remedies for our current malaise. The “terrible simplifiers” may have their day then. But they will end up yielding power to well-intentioned complicators, those more congenial to educated elites, but probably every a bit as dangerous, if not more so."
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    NEW THREAD

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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    GIN1138 said:

    The dynasty rests of Chelsea now...
    She may have legal problems because of the Foundation - unless Obama pardons her and all the others from Podesta to Mills to Abedin. If pardoned that may not be a positive.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,316
    Clarkson on QI seems to be in a bad way.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Tim_B said:

    Speedy said:

    Another map that shows the potencial (sic) of the Trump road for Republicans, the state of New York looks now like Pennsylvania before Trump at least geographically:

    https://twitter.com/chris_churchill/status/797125706400563200

    New York state (where I used to live) is like Florida, Pennsylvania and probably other states with which I am less familiar.

    In Pennsylvania the Democrats run up absolutely huge numbers of votes in Philly to counteract the remainder of the state which is - broadly speaking - Republican.

    Ditto in New york, where the Dems run up a massive vote count in the city to counter balance most of the rest of the state.

    In Florida it's Miami Dade, Broward county and parts of the I-4 corridor which tally huge Democratic vote counts.

    If you can dilute the huge local Dem vote counts then all things are possible.

    This is not true for all states though - by comparison California has much wider spread Dem support.
    It is a very different looking map from 2012 in New York State.
This discussion has been closed.