Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trying to make sense of Tuesday’s dramatic result

13

Comments

  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MaxPB said:

    The BBC have updated the Juncker article with some quotes.

    Quoted by Luxembourg newspaper Le Quotidien, Mr Juncker, a former prime minister of the tiny state, continued: "In general the Americans pay no heed to Europe. As for Mr Trump, if I understand properly, he thinks Belgium is a village somewhere on our continent...

    "My honest opinion? With Mr Trump, we are going to waste two years while he tours a world he doesn't know."

    Fucking hell, what a complete dickhead.
    Yeah. I agree Trump is a complete dickhead. Good for Junker for pointing it out.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130
    MaxPB said:

    The BBC have updated the Juncker article with some quotes.

    Quoted by Luxembourg newspaper Le Quotidien, Mr Juncker, a former prime minister of the tiny state, continued: "In general the Americans pay no heed to Europe. As for Mr Trump, if I understand properly, he thinks Belgium is a village somewhere on our continent...

    "My honest opinion? With Mr Trump, we are going to waste two years while he tours a world he doesn't know."

    Fucking hell, what a complete dickhead.
    He must have been quoted after a VERY good lunch.
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    The BBC have updated the Juncker article with some quotes.

    Quoted by Luxembourg newspaper Le Quotidien, Mr Juncker, a former prime minister of the tiny state, continued: "In general the Americans pay no heed to Europe. As for Mr Trump, if I understand properly, he thinks Belgium is a village somewhere on our continent...

    "My honest opinion? With Mr Trump, we are going to waste two years while he tours a world he doesn't know."

    Juncker clearly has delusions of grandeur. He thinks he is a someone when in fact he is a drunken irrelevance.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    The current front runner for new DNC chair seems like a smart man:

    https://twitter.com/fivefifths/status/797059872126865412
  • Options
    AnneJGP said:

    The BBC have updated the Juncker article with some quotes.

    Quoted by Luxembourg newspaper Le Quotidien, Mr Juncker, a former prime minister of the tiny state, continued: "In general the Americans pay no heed to Europe. As for Mr Trump, if I understand properly, he thinks Belgium is a village somewhere on our continent...

    "My honest opinion? With Mr Trump, we are going to waste two years while he tours a world he doesn't know."

    Does anyone know what Mr Juncker was planning to do during the next two years that will be blocked by Mr Trump? It must be something significant or it wouldn't appear to Mr Juncker as 2 wasted years.
    Climate change action, TTIP (although the latter may already have been dead at the EU end).
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610

    MaxPB said:

    The BBC have updated the Juncker article with some quotes.

    Quoted by Luxembourg newspaper Le Quotidien, Mr Juncker, a former prime minister of the tiny state, continued: "In general the Americans pay no heed to Europe. As for Mr Trump, if I understand properly, he thinks Belgium is a village somewhere on our continent...

    "My honest opinion? With Mr Trump, we are going to waste two years while he tours a world he doesn't know."

    Fucking hell, what a complete dickhead.
    Yeah. I agree Trump is a complete dickhead. Good for Junker for pointing it out.
    Aren't you funny.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Jonathan said:

    Tim_B said:

    Leonard Cohen has died

    Again?
    Well, he was a Zen Buddhist. Is it his reincarnated self that has died tonight?
    MsNBC has just reported it too. Is it possible that there are multiple Canadian singer songwriters named Leonard Cohen who died today, all aged 82?

    That makes 3 times. Assuming Leonard Cohen is a cat, he only has 6 more left.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130
    Speedy said:

    I completely agree with Samantha Bee, she as a white woman is ruining america and helped elect Trump with her rants:

    https://twitter.com/Slate/status/797131041932713993
    I hope she can look her self in the mirror.

    My sympathy goes out to the mirror.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130
    Tim_B said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tim_B said:

    Leonard Cohen has died

    Again?
    Well, he was a Zen Buddhist. Is it his reincarnated self that has died tonight?
    MsNBC has just reported it too. Is it possible that there are multiple Canadian singer songwriters named Leonard Cohen who died today, all aged 82?

    That makes 3 times. Assuming Leonard Cohen is a cat, he only has 6 more left.
    Maybe he came back as a mayfly? Even then, an unlucky one.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Speedy said:

    The current front runner for new DNC chair seems like a smart man:

    https://twitter.com/fivefifths/status/797059872126865412

    He's Muslim right? Might kill Dems chances with rural whites. Although most probably don't care who the DNC chairman is I guess.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Speedy said:

    MikeK said:

    Good evening all.

    Whats happened to our JackW, has he disappeared up his own ARSE?

    Spare a thought for him, I think he modeled his ARSE upon the polls, which instead of being 95% accurate where 95% crap.
    Garbage in Garbage out.

    When the electorate is in such flux the chances of being wrong are much higher than usual.

    But Prof. Linchman is still correct, remember his 13 keys that we debated here in the summer?
    This was the first US election for which I refused to make a prediction.

    In risk assessment, my professional field, a key concept is knowing what can be measured meaningfully and what cannot. The traditional impact vs probability plot is transformed into the confidence in prediction of impact vs confidence in prediction of probability plot. This gives you four domain:

    1. risk, in the engineering sense where confidence is high on both parameters
    2. ambiguity, where you know that something will happen (high confidence in probability prediction) but not what
    3. uncertainty, where you know what will happen (high confidence in impact) but not its probability
    4. ignorance, where you have no confidence in your prediction of either.

    In the case of polling for an election, you can re-label the axes as confidence in your ability to poll a population, and confidence in your selection of the population being polled against the actual voting population.

    Thus we were firmly in a situation equivalent to ambiguity above. In this domain, mathematical techniques are not very useful and can be dangerously misleading. Q methodology, scenario playing, and multi-criteria mapping can give you insights as to what might be going on, but not a mathematical prediction of outcomes.

    There will be some who come forward and say that their mathematical model accurately predicted the outcome of the election. Their claims will be bullshit. They were simply the statistically inevitable sample of lucky modelers.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    MaxPB said:

    The BBC have updated the Juncker article with some quotes.

    Quoted by Luxembourg newspaper Le Quotidien, Mr Juncker, a former prime minister of the tiny state, continued: "In general the Americans pay no heed to Europe. As for Mr Trump, if I understand properly, he thinks Belgium is a village somewhere on our continent...

    "My honest opinion? With Mr Trump, we are going to waste two years while he tours a world he doesn't know."

    Fucking hell, what a complete dickhead.
    Yeah. I agree Trump is a complete dickhead. Good for Junker for pointing it out.
    You might not like his politics. You might think he is not a nice person.

    He just got elected president, against all the odds. Whatever he may be, dickhead is not one of them. Saying that merely reflects badly on you.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130
    Speedy said:

    The current front runner for new DNC chair seems like a smart man:

    https://twitter.com/fivefifths/status/797059872126865412

    That woman should be made to rewatch that every hour, on the hour. And we should be able to tune in to watch her cringe. Is she supposed to be a pundit?
  • Options

    MaxPB said:

    The BBC have updated the Juncker article with some quotes.

    Quoted by Luxembourg newspaper Le Quotidien, Mr Juncker, a former prime minister of the tiny state, continued: "In general the Americans pay no heed to Europe. As for Mr Trump, if I understand properly, he thinks Belgium is a village somewhere on our continent...

    "My honest opinion? With Mr Trump, we are going to waste two years while he tours a world he doesn't know."

    Fucking hell, what a complete dickhead.
    Yeah. I agree Trump is a complete dickhead. Good for Junker for pointing it out.
    Careful now.
    The PB Pussygrabbers, when they take a break from railing about political correctness, safe spaces & 'waaaycist', get in a snowflakey ferment when their boy gets a powering.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The big wrong non polling assumption I made was that the Dem campaign staff weren't total morons.

    I thought they weren't putting any effort Ito the 'firewall' because they didn't need to rather than because they were incompetent.
  • Options
    YDGYDG Posts: 7

    @YDG – excellent first comment and welcome to PB.

    Thank you (and one or two others). I'm a long time reader. I thought it was time for me to try to contribute.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130
    YDG said:

    @YDG – excellent first comment and welcome to PB.

    Thank you (and one or two others). I'm a long time reader. I thought it was time for me to try to contribute.
    More, please.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Tim_B said:

    MaxPB said:

    The BBC have updated the Juncker article with some quotes.

    Quoted by Luxembourg newspaper Le Quotidien, Mr Juncker, a former prime minister of the tiny state, continued: "In general the Americans pay no heed to Europe. As for Mr Trump, if I understand properly, he thinks Belgium is a village somewhere on our continent...

    "My honest opinion? With Mr Trump, we are going to waste two years while he tours a world he doesn't know."

    Fucking hell, what a complete dickhead.
    Yeah. I agree Trump is a complete dickhead. Good for Junker for pointing it out.
    You might not like his politics. You might think he is not a nice person.

    He just got elected president, against all the odds. Whatever he may be, dickhead is not one of them. Saying that merely reflects badly on you.
    He is a dickhead, but is now an elected dickhead.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,844
    edited November 2016
    MikeK said:

    Good evening all.

    Whats happened to our JackW, has he disappeared up his own ARSE?

    It seems after the US election he has chosen to retire his ARSE for public service.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    MP_SE said:

    The BBC have updated the Juncker article with some quotes.

    Quoted by Luxembourg newspaper Le Quotidien, Mr Juncker, a former prime minister of the tiny state, continued: "In general the Americans pay no heed to Europe. As for Mr Trump, if I understand properly, he thinks Belgium is a village somewhere on our continent...

    "My honest opinion? With Mr Trump, we are going to waste two years while he tours a world he doesn't know."

    Juncker clearly has delusions of grandeur. He thinks he is a someone when in fact he is a drunken irrelevance.
    The fool probably regards himself as Trump's political equal, or something very close.

    Cameron was right to oppose his appointment. Some of the less blinkered, posturing European leaders probably wish that they had heeded his objections.
  • Options

    The BBC have updated the Juncker article with some quotes.

    Quoted by Luxembourg newspaper Le Quotidien, Mr Juncker, a former prime minister of the tiny state, continued: "In general the Americans pay no heed to Europe. As for Mr Trump, if I understand properly, he thinks Belgium is a village somewhere on our continent...

    "My honest opinion? With Mr Trump, we are going to waste two years while he tours a world he doesn't know."

    You can make many criticisms of Donald Trump - and Lord knows I would - you can't reasonably say that he's not well-travelled:

    http://fortune.com/2015/09/17/republican-candidates-world-travel/
    Meanwhile Gary Johnson will be the new envoy to East Korea
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    YDG said:

    @YDG – excellent first comment and welcome to PB.

    Thank you (and one or two others). I'm a long time reader. I thought it was time for me to try to contribute.
    How rude of me. Welcome. And I agree. I think a final analysis of the voting patterns will reveal a lot of churn, most of it very worrying for the Dems in the longer term, and not a little worrying for the GOP Establishment too.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130
    Liverpool 2 Scotland 0
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    AnneJGP said:

    The BBC have updated the Juncker article with some quotes.

    Quoted by Luxembourg newspaper Le Quotidien, Mr Juncker, a former prime minister of the tiny state, continued: "In general the Americans pay no heed to Europe. As for Mr Trump, if I understand properly, he thinks Belgium is a village somewhere on our continent...

    "My honest opinion? With Mr Trump, we are going to waste two years while he tours a wor:)ld he doesn't know."

    Does anyone know what Mr Juncker was planning to do during the next two years that will be blocked by Mr Trump? It must be something significant or it wouldn't appear to Mr Juncker as 2 wasted years.
    :)
  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    That's unfortunate. I wear a safety pin to hold my poppy. I wasn't aware I was sending another message by doing so.
  • Options
    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    betway may have cut their price for Trump resigning before completing a full term to 10/1, but according to oddschecker betfred are offering 1/3 that he does serve the full term. One of those prices is wrong. I know he could die or be impeached but I don't see those probablilities making it an overround book. I wouldn't want to tie my money up for 4+ years on a 1/3 shot but I think that is the price that is badly out.
  • Options
    Alistair said:

    The big wrong non polling assumption I made was that the Dem campaign staff weren't total morons.

    I thought they weren't putting any effort Ito the 'firewall' because they didn't need to rather than because they were incompetent.

    Was it the same Clinton campaign team who lost to Obama in 2008 because they did not understand the primary rules? Again, she got most votes but in the wrong places.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,951

    Tim_B said:

    MaxPB said:

    The BBC have updated the Juncker article with some quotes.

    Quoted by Luxembourg newspaper Le Quotidien, Mr Juncker, a former prime minister of the tiny state, continued: "In general the Americans pay no heed to Europe. As for Mr Trump, if I understand properly, he thinks Belgium is a village somewhere on our continent...

    "My honest opinion? With Mr Trump, we are going to waste two years while he tours a world he doesn't know."

    Fucking hell, what a complete dickhead.
    Yeah. I agree Trump is a complete dickhead. Good for Junker for pointing it out.
    You might not like his politics. You might think he is not a nice person.

    He just got elected president, against all the odds. Whatever he may be, dickhead is not one of them. Saying that merely reflects badly on you.
    He is a dickhead, but is now an elected dickhead.
    It turns out that you can judge people quite well with how they cope with the unexpected. And especially whether they can respect democracy when it goes against them

    Many, many people are not coming off well over all this....
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    The current front runner for new DNC chair seems like a smart man:

    https://twitter.com/fivefifths/status/797059872126865412

    That woman should be made to rewatch that every hour, on the hour. And we should be able to tune in to watch her cringe. Is she supposed to be a pundit?
    She is Maggie Haberman leading journalist for the New York Times, that should tell you a lot about that newspaper.

    This article should also tell you how low quality and smug the New York Times has become lately:

    http://deadline.com/2016/11/shocked-by-trump-new-york-times-finds-time-for-soul-searching-1201852490/

    "By and large, talented reporters scrambled to match stories with what internally was often called “the narrative.” We were occasionally asked to map a narrative for our various beats a year in advance, square the plan with editors, then generate stories that fit the pre-designated line."

    " But I knew one senior reporter who would play solitaire on his computer in the mornings, waiting for his editors to come through with marching orders. Once, in the Los Angeles bureau, I listened to a visiting National staff reporter tell a contact, more or less: “My editor needs someone to say such-and-such, could you say that?” "

    "The bigger shock came on being told, at least twice, by Times editors who were describing the paper’s daily Page One meeting: “We set the agenda for the country in that room.” "
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    The BBC have updated the Juncker article with some quotes.

    Quoted by Luxembourg newspaper Le Quotidien, Mr Juncker, a former prime minister of the tiny state, continued: "In general the Americans pay no heed to Europe. As for Mr Trump, if I understand properly, he thinks Belgium is a village somewhere on our continent...

    "My honest opinion? With Mr Trump, we are going to waste two years while he tours a world he doesn't know."

    You can make many criticisms of Donald Trump - and Lord knows I would - you can't reasonably say that he's not well-travelled:

    http://fortune.com/2015/09/17/republican-candidates-world-travel/
    Meanwhile Gary Johnson will be the new envoy to East Korea
    Is that the nice Korea? And where on the map is it in relation to Huntington's Korea?
  • Options
    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    Alistair said:

    The big wrong non polling assumption I made was that the Dem campaign staff weren't total morons.

    I thought they weren't putting any effort Ito the 'firewall' because they didn't need to rather than because they were incompetent.

    when did the "firewall" term get coined in this case. the first I heard of it was when it got burnt.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,101
    MaxPB said:
    Touché. ;)
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Anti-Trump circle jerk on HIGNFY.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130
    ITV commentary "Scotland are sitting ducks standing there...."
  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    England 3 Ginger Rodents 0
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,951

    ITV commentary "Scotland are sitting ducks standing there...."

    Are we finally going to win a game on ITV?
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited November 2016
    Looking at my regular mix screen of all the news networks, a couple of factoids jumped out over the last few minutes.

    The first somewhat ho hum - Clinton's likely total of 232 electoral votes will be the lowest for a Democrat since 1988.

    The second I found somewhat surprising and a bit of a wow - Trump won a third of the nearly 700 counties Obama carried in both 2008 and 2012.

    Taken together they may (or may not) be the glimmerings of a change.

    If so, the next sign might be the 2018 midterms, where the Democrats are defending 25 US Senate seats, 10 in states won by Trump this week.

    In exit polls 49% said they had an unfavorable view of the Democratic party
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Tim_B said:

    MaxPB said:

    The BBC have updated the Juncker article with some quotes.

    Quoted by Luxembourg newspaper Le Quotidien, Mr Juncker, a former prime minister of the tiny state, continued: "In general the Americans pay no heed to Europe. As for Mr Trump, if I understand properly, he thinks Belgium is a village somewhere on our continent...

    "My honest opinion? With Mr Trump, we are going to waste two years while he tours a world he doesn't know."

    Fucking hell, what a complete dickhead.
    Yeah. I agree Trump is a complete dickhead. Good for Junker for pointing it out.
    You might not like his politics. You might think he is not a nice person.

    He just got elected president, against all the odds. Whatever he may be, dickhead is not one of them. Saying that merely reflects badly on you.
    Eh? George Galloway was elected many times. Didn't stop him from being a dickhead. Ken Livingston too.
  • Options
    The last year the Conservatives elected a female leader, England beat Scotland 5-1.
  • Options
    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    MP_SE said:

    Anti-Trump circle jerk on HIGNFY.

    Is there such a thing as a Pro-Trump circle? Most normal sane folk are Anti-Trump. Are you my friend?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    The current front runner for new DNC chair seems like a smart man:

    https://twitter.com/fivefifths/status/797059872126865412

    That woman should be made to rewatch that every hour, on the hour. And we should be able to tune in to watch her cringe. Is she supposed to be a pundit?
    She is Maggie Haberman leading journalist for the New York Times, that should tell you a lot about that newspaper.

    This article should also tell you how low quality and smug the New York Times has become lately:

    http://deadline.com/2016/11/shocked-by-trump-new-york-times-finds-time-for-soul-searching-1201852490/

    "By and large, talented reporters scrambled to match stories with what internally was often called “the narrative.” We were occasionally asked to map a narrative for our various beats a year in advance, square the plan with editors, then generate stories that fit the pre-designated line."

    " But I knew one senior reporter who would play solitaire on his computer in the mornings, waiting for his editors to come through with marching orders. Once, in the Los Angeles bureau, I listened to a visiting National staff reporter tell a contact, more or less: “My editor needs someone to say such-and-such, could you say that?” "

    "The bigger shock came on being told, at least twice, by Times editors who were describing the paper’s daily Page One meeting: “We set the agenda for the country in that room.” "
    Speedy, thanks for the background.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    ITV commentary "Scotland are sitting ducks standing there...."

    could almost be a Murray Walker-ism
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited November 2016
    Scott_P said:
    It's not 'just' health care. It involves deep changes to Medicare, Medicaid and the IRS among other things. Repeal is immensely complicated. it's not all bad, though most is appallingly bad.

    I suspect the bits he'll keep are abolishing life time caps and pre-existing conditions etc.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Tim_B said:

    Looking at my regular mix screen of all the news networks, a couple of factoids jumped out over the last few minutes.

    The first somewhat ho hum - Clinton's likely total of 232 electoral votes will be the lowest for a Democrat since 1988.

    The second I found somewhat surprising and a bit of a wow - Trump won a third of the nearly 700 counties Obama carried in both 2008 and 2012.

    Taken together they may (or may not) be the glimmerings of a change.

    If so, the next sign might be the 2018 midterms, where the Democrats are defending 25 US Senate seats, 10 in states won by Trump this week.

    It has the possibilities of a realignment, Trump's Mid West strategy could be as successful as Nixon's Southern strategy that gave dominance for the Republicans for 20 years.

    However it's not set yet, the GOP will have to deliver to those farmers and workers of that region to lock them in.

    That the minorities also liked Trump's platform is also a bonus.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,844
    Scott_P said:
    And then the Wall? And then the Muslim ban?

    He might finish up surprising people and not being half as bad as they think he will be?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130
    murali_s said:

    MP_SE said:

    Anti-Trump circle jerk on HIGNFY.

    Is there such a thing as a Pro-Trump circle? Most normal sane folk are Anti-Trump. Are you my friend?
    So the US electorate are not normal, sane folk?

    Do you see the problem here?
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    murali_s said:

    MP_SE said:

    Anti-Trump circle jerk on HIGNFY.

    Is there such a thing as a Pro-Trump circle? Most normal sane folk are Anti-Trump. Are you my friend?
    Lol.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,951
    Hilariously, the only person to come off worse than Trump on tonight's HIGNFY is Corbo.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Scott_P said:
    He was constantly talking about the lines around the states and that he won't let people die in the streets.

    I think he intents to keep the pre-existing conditions part of Obamacare, but everything else is up in the air.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    edited November 2016
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    And then the Wall? And then the Muslim ban?

    He might finish up surprising people and not being half as bad as they think he will be?
    The wall will become a fence and the Muslim ban will become a complete restriction on migration from countries on the watch list (which will magically include Muslim countries).

    On healthcare I think Obama care is dead, but there will be a mega expansion of Medicare.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    murali_s said:

    MP_SE said:

    Anti-Trump circle jerk on HIGNFY.

    Is there such a thing as a Pro-Trump circle? Most normal sane folk are Anti-Trump. Are you my friend?
    I found Anti-Trump people that are definitely not "normal sane folk" unless you are the SNP:

    https://twitter.com/YesCalifornia/status/796449502110609409

    Somehow the SNP has set up shop in San Francisco.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    The current front runner for new DNC chair seems like a smart man:

    https://twitter.com/fivefifths/status/797059872126865412

    That woman should be made to rewatch that every hour, on the hour. And we should be able to tune in to watch her cringe. Is she supposed to be a pundit?
    She is Maggie Haberman leading journalist for the New York Times, that should tell you a lot about that newspaper.

    This article should also tell you how low quality and smug the New York Times has become lately:

    http://deadline.com/2016/11/shocked-by-trump-new-york-times-finds-time-for-soul-searching-1201852490/

    "By and large, talented reporters scrambled to match stories with what internally was often called “the narrative.” We were occasionally asked to map a narrative for our various beats a year in advance, square the plan with editors, then generate stories that fit the pre-designated line."

    " But I knew one senior reporter who would play solitaire on his computer in the mornings, waiting for his editors to come through with marching orders. Once, in the Los Angeles bureau, I listened to a visiting National staff reporter tell a contact, more or less: “My editor needs someone to say such-and-such, could you say that?” "

    "The bigger shock came on being told, at least twice, by Times editors who were describing the paper’s daily Page One meeting: “We set the agenda for the country in that room.” "
    Speedy, thanks for the background.
    For most of my life the New York Times - the 'Gray Lady' - was the proud newspaper of record, along with the Washington Post. The Times memorably had (and may still have for all I know) on its masthead "All the news that's fit to print".

    Those days are long gone now and it's just another liberal rag, as is the Post.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,313
    Speedy said:

    murali_s said:

    MP_SE said:

    Anti-Trump circle jerk on HIGNFY.

    Is there such a thing as a Pro-Trump circle? Most normal sane folk are Anti-Trump. Are you my friend?
    I found Anti-Trump people that are definitely not "normal sane folk" unless you are the SNP:

    https://twitter.com/YesCalifornia/status/796449502110609409

    Somehow the SNP has set up shop in San Francisco.
    Califarewell
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    And then the Wall? And then the Muslim ban?

    He might finish up surprising people and not being half as bad as they think he will be?
    Lets make America reverse ferret again!
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited November 2016
    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    And then the Wall? And then the Muslim ban?

    He might finish up surprising people and not being half as bad as they think he will be?
    The wall will become a fence and the Muslim ban will become a complete restriction on migration from countries on the watch list (which will magically include Muslim countries).

    On healthcare I think Obama care is dead, but there will be a mega expansion of Medicare.
    Obamacare already puts lower paid folks right into Medicaid rather than onto the insurance market.

    They need to act fairly quickly on Obamacare as it's collapsing even faster than forecast.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    And then the Wall? And then the Muslim ban?

    He might finish up surprising people and not being half as bad as they think he will be?
    The wall will become a fence and the Muslim ban will become a complete restriction on migration from countries on the watch list (which will magically include Muslim countries).

    On healthcare I think Obama care is dead, but there will be a mega expansion of Medicare.
    Trump has to be careful and so do Republicans, those voters voted for them on the basis of delivery on at least some of those promises and results.

    The Wall, NAFTA Reform, Healthcare Reform are the things they have to deliver.
    And to be careful about Washington corruption, "Drain the Swamp" talk is always popular.

    They got Power, now they have to figure out a way to keep it.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    He did the best. Which was still pretty poor.
  • Options
    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited November 2016
    GIN1138 said:


    And then the Wall? And then the Muslim ban?

    The Muslim ban has already disappeared. The Wall was never going to happen, beyond some minimal PR meaning.

    He's throwing away campaign promises so quickly and publically I'm wondering if he might utterly reposition himself as President.
  • Options
    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    iirc their model gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance. Those happen fairly frequently ...... in fact, about a third of the time :-)
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    There really is no point in polling Richmond. There is no contest. Easy Goldsmith hold.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited November 2016
    My TV is knackered. It looks like Scotland are wearing pink.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Actually he was the least worse of the data analysts, probably because his troubles in the Primaries taught him a good lesson.

    Dr.Sam Wang was so bad that he is eating a bug.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Speedy said:

    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    And then the Wall? And then the Muslim ban?

    He might finish up surprising people and not being half as bad as they think he will be?
    The wall will become a fence and the Muslim ban will become a complete restriction on migration from countries on the watch list (which will magically include Muslim countries).

    On healthcare I think Obama care is dead, but there will be a mega expansion of Medicare.
    Trump has to be careful and so do Republicans, those voters voted for them on the basis of delivery on at least some of those promises and results.

    The Wall, NAFTA Reform, Healthcare Reform are the things they have to deliver.
    And to be careful about Washington corruption, "Drain the Swamp" talk is always popular.

    They got Power, now they have to figure out a way to keep it.
    The way to keep power is to execute and deliver the program. They realistically have about 15 months to do so before midterm electioneering begins after the spring Congressional recess.
  • Options
    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    edited November 2016
    MP_SE said:

    murali_s said:

    MP_SE said:

    Anti-Trump circle jerk on HIGNFY.

    Is there such a thing as a Pro-Trump circle? Most normal sane folk are Anti-Trump. Are you my friend?
    Lol.
    Of course, this is PB where the right-wing fruitcakes and loons love to congregate and join in fellowship. Here Trump is adored and loved. Should have known better...
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    And then the Wall? And then the Muslim ban?

    He might finish up surprising people and not being half as bad as they think he will be?
    Lets make America reverse ferret again!
    Wisconsin went for Trump because of the support of the Cheese makers there. They want to "Make America Grate Again!"
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Andrew said:

    GIN1138 said:


    And then the Wall? And then the Muslim ban?

    The Muslim ban has already disappeared. The Wall was never going to happen, beyond some minimal PR meaning.

    He's throwing away campaign promises so quickly and publically I'm wondering if he might utterly reposition himself as President.
    Sometimes a threat is good enough

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3927702/Trump-not-need-build-wall-Illegals-say-ve-given-trying-cross-won-election.html
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,844
    murali_s said:

    MP_SE said:

    murali_s said:

    MP_SE said:

    Anti-Trump circle jerk on HIGNFY.

    Is there such a thing as a Pro-Trump circle? Most normal sane folk are Anti-Trump. Are you my friend?
    Lol.
    Of course, this is PB where the right-wing fruitcakes and loons love to congregate and join in fellowship. Here Trump is adored and loved. Should have known better...
    Is he?

    General view of him on here is very "mixed" to say the least.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    murali_s said:

    MP_SE said:

    murali_s said:

    MP_SE said:

    Anti-Trump circle jerk on HIGNFY.

    Is there such a thing as a Pro-Trump circle? Most normal sane folk are Anti-Trump. Are you my friend?
    Lol.
    Of course, this is PB where the right-wing fruitcakes and loons love to congregate and join in fellowship. Here Trump is adored and loved. Should have known better...
    Yes. We only keep you around as a novelty pet to poke with a stick when it amuses us.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Tim_B said:

    Speedy said:

    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    And then the Wall? And then the Muslim ban?

    He might finish up surprising people and not being half as bad as they think he will be?
    The wall will become a fence and the Muslim ban will become a complete restriction on migration from countries on the watch list (which will magically include Muslim countries).

    On healthcare I think Obama care is dead, but there will be a mega expansion of Medicare.
    Trump has to be careful and so do Republicans, those voters voted for them on the basis of delivery on at least some of those promises and results.

    The Wall, NAFTA Reform, Healthcare Reform are the things they have to deliver.
    And to be careful about Washington corruption, "Drain the Swamp" talk is always popular.

    They got Power, now they have to figure out a way to keep it.
    The way to keep power is to execute and deliver the program. They realistically have about 15 months to do so before midterm electioneering begins after the spring Congressional recess.
    True.

    On the basis of political corruption a great source of that is the need by politicians for rich campaign donours, but the rich campaign donours are more of a drag for politicians who then can be accused of corruption (Evan Bayh, Jeb Bush, Hillary).

    Trump has shown in both the primaries and the election that you don't really need all that money to win, you just need popular policies, have charisma and to put physical effort in campaigning.

    All the money in the world couldn't save Jeb and Hillary, politics and politicians would be better with less.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    ITV commentary "Scotland are sitting ducks standing there...."

    Another Glenn Twaddle classic.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    edited November 2016
    Speedy said:

    Actually he was the least worse of the data analysts, probably because his troubles in the Primaries taught him a good lesson.

    Dr.Sam Wang was so bad that he is eating a bug.
    @RodCrosby was the best analyst

    2nd was fresh air,

    Nate placed for third.

    If you'd used Nate's analysis and applied it to the Betfair market you'd be quids in.
    If you'd have used Sam Wangs' you'd be bust.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    murali_s said:

    MP_SE said:

    Anti-Trump circle jerk on HIGNFY.

    Is there such a thing as a Pro-Trump circle? Most normal sane folk are Anti-Trump. Are you my friend?
    So the US electorate are not normal, sane folk?

    Do you see the problem here?
    Probably not :-)
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Jonathan said:

    My TV is knackered. It looks like Scotland are wearing pink.

    @alexmassie: Departments of Correlation & Causation note that Scotland have been gash ever since the establishment of the Scottish parliament. /s
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    The last year the Conservatives elected a female leader, England beat Scotland 5-1.

    As any fool knows pretend countries only have pretend football teams ..............
  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited November 2016
    @murali_s

    'Of course, this is PB where the right-wing fruitcakes and loons love to congregate and join in fellowship. Here Trump is adored and loved. Should have known better... '

    So why bother coming to the site & posting if you find it so offensive ?

  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    Actually he was the least worse of the data analysts, probably because his troubles in the Primaries taught him a good lesson.

    Dr.Sam Wang was so bad that he is eating a bug.
    @RodCrosby was the best analyst

    2nd was fresh air,

    Nate placed for third.
    Indeed, and even though I correctly sensed how this election was going after the weekend, I still have to eat my cigars, I'm planning for the feast later tonight.
  • Options
    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    Speedy said:

    The current front runner for new DNC chair seems like a smart man:

    https://twitter.com/fivefifths/status/797059872126865412

    That woman should be made to rewatch that every hour, on the hour. And we should be able to tune in to watch her cringe. Is she supposed to be a pundit?
    The list of pundits who didn't see Trump coming is a long one from many corners of the media.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Speedy said:

    Well Canada and Mexico are now willing to renegotiate NAFTA with Trump, of course no one is sure how that renegotiation will work out.

    But it wont be bad for Britain to enter those negotiations as an extra actor, at least being on the table when such important negotiations takes place shows your importance (even if you are not important).
    On the table?

    I'd rather be *at* the table!
  • Options
    corporeal said:

    Speedy said:

    The current front runner for new DNC chair seems like a smart man:

    https://twitter.com/fivefifths/status/797059872126865412

    That woman should be made to rewatch that every hour, on the hour. And we should be able to tune in to watch her cringe. Is she supposed to be a pundit?
    The list of pundits who didn't see Trump coming is a long one from many corners of the media.
    Many of those cavorting with glee on pb were studiously refusing to predict a Trump victory on Tuesday.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    Actually he was the least worse of the data analysts, probably because his troubles in the Primaries taught him a good lesson.

    Dr.Sam Wang was so bad that he is eating a bug.
    @RodCrosby was the best analyst

    2nd was fresh air,

    Nate placed for third.
    Indeed, and even though I correctly sensed how this election was going after the weekend, I still have to eat my cigars, I'm planning for the feast later tonight.
    Brings a new meaning to cigar consumption.......
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited November 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    Actually he was the least worse of the data analysts, probably because his troubles in the Primaries taught him a good lesson.

    Dr.Sam Wang was so bad that he is eating a bug.
    @RodCrosby was the best analyst

    2nd was fresh air,

    Nate placed for third.
    @RodCrosby's spreadsheet on Monday evening was showing a narrow Clinton win.

    It may well be that he saw value in betting against his prediction, I did. I got on Trump at 5.7 on Monday, as this appeared to be value compared with 538.

    Rod's rather nasty right wing politics have proven rather in tune with the times, hence his run of form (though he did not give a prediction for Brexit). Jacks ARSE was very good in earlier times as the mood, both in the UK and in the USA matched Jack's genteel liberal centralism. Unfortunately this is out of favour at present.
  • Options
    GIN1138 said:

    MikeK said:

    Good evening all.

    Whats happened to our JackW, has he disappeared up his own ARSE?

    It seems after the US election he has chosen to retire his ARSE for public service.
    Where ELBOW goes, ARSE follows :lol:
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    Actually he was the least worse of the data analysts, probably because his troubles in the Primaries taught him a good lesson.

    Dr.Sam Wang was so bad that he is eating a bug.
    @RodCrosby was the best analyst

    2nd was fresh air,

    Nate placed for third.
    Indeed, and even though I correctly sensed how this election was going after the weekend, I still have to eat my cigars, I'm planning for the feast later tonight.
    Gurkha Grand Reserve cigars would be most appropriate.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    corporeal said:

    Speedy said:

    The current front runner for new DNC chair seems like a smart man:

    https://twitter.com/fivefifths/status/797059872126865412

    That woman should be made to rewatch that every hour, on the hour. And we should be able to tune in to watch her cringe. Is she supposed to be a pundit?
    The list of pundits who didn't see Trump coming is a long one from many corners of the media.
    The list includes pretty much everyone prior to 9pm EDT Tuesday.

    In response to your statement The electorate hasn’t changed much in the four years since Barack Obama won re-election in some places - Georgia for example - it's changed quite a bit in those four years.
  • Options
    corporeal said:

    Speedy said:

    The current front runner for new DNC chair seems like a smart man:

    https://twitter.com/fivefifths/status/797059872126865412

    That woman should be made to rewatch that every hour, on the hour. And we should be able to tune in to watch her cringe. Is she supposed to be a pundit?
    The list of pundits who didn't see Trump coming is a long one from many corners of the media.
    Even I expected Hillary to win.

    Nice article, by the way.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    murali_s said:

    MP_SE said:

    Anti-Trump circle jerk on HIGNFY.

    Is there such a thing as a Pro-Trump circle? Most normal sane folk are Anti-Trump. Are you my friend?
    So the US electorate are not normal, sane folk?

    Do you see the problem here?
    Whatever we think of Trump supporters I'm sure we all agree that there are worse things to be, like Corbynites to name one.
  • Options
    Given the government whipped his appointment to the justice select committee, this is potentially awkward news for the government as well as Keith Vaz:

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/797195487271153665

    The government's thinking in doing so is baffling.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    My first salvo into Trumpology (named after Kremlinology).

    Keep an eye on Jared Kushner, Trump's son in law and Ivanka's husband.

    He just closed down his newspaper.

    It probably means he got a big government or White House post, Kushner and Inavka are the powers behind the throne.
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    The UK will supposedly be punished by the EU if a trade deal with the US is sought.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/797190459026210816
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2016
    Speedy said:

    Actually he was the least worse of the data analysts, probably because his troubles in the Primaries taught him a good lesson.

    Dr.Sam Wang was so bad that he is eating a bug.
    Wang gave Trump a 1% chance. That is larger than 0%!
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited November 2016
    Speedy said:

    My first salvo into Trumpology (named after Kremlinology).

    Keep an eye on Jared Kushner, Trump's son in law and Ivanka's husband.

    He just closed down his newspaper.

    It probably means he got a big government or White House post, Kushner and Inavka are the powers behind the throne.

    Kushner has been a major inside player in the Trump campaign since it started and is on the transition team.

    You should call it Trumpton and assign names to the characters of Pugh, Pugh, Barney McGrew, Cuthbert, Dibble, Grub
This discussion has been closed.