Off topic, is @Morris_Dancer around? I thought he'd be interest to know that one of the NPC's in the upcoming Mass Effect game is going to be called PB! (well, Peebee)
Seems Bill Clinton warned them that they need to do more with white working class in places like W Virginia and got ignored.
That Dem party is dead, it is now the party of ultra liberals, blacks and Hispanics.
There must be a risk of the Dems "doing a UK Labour". As far as I can tell Elizabeth Warren is Jeremy Corbyn in a skirt.
Yes, she's just made a stupid statement on Trump's victory as well. If the Dems pick her instead of their Dan Jarvis then they are finished for 2020 IMO.
That said, I'm unlikely to get Mass Effect Andromeda. Leaving aside I dislike Bioware's approach to DLC, one of the chaps working on the game, Manveer Heir, has posted less than lovely things about white people. I don't especially feel like throwing my money towards a firm that tolerates that sort of bullshit.
Not a lawyer, but surely it's only revocable if the other states agree?
Which is why the ECJ will need to rule...
I think it'd be stupid for the government to make an argument about whether or not it is reversible, since it just invites appeal to the ECJ which would look so terrible it isn't worth thinking about!
Rod Crosby, late of this parish, has asked me to post his pre-Election spreadsheet. It's really quite impressive. You'll see he claims to have made £50,000 on Trump winning.
You'll also see he's peeved about being excluded from PB, and he's told me he will never return.
Personally, I regret that. Rod said some dumb things, but he is also extremely acute on politics and betting, as this link shows.
But of course the site belongs to Mike, and the decision is his.
Ed Balls losing his seat predicted when Ed Miliband was on 40% midterm, Brexit probably happening, Obama called correctly in 08 and 12 & never wavering from President Trump.
A full House for Rod.
A coalition in 2010 A majority in 2015
Both thought to be implausible at the time and called correctly.
That said, I'm unlikely to get Mass Effect Andromeda. Leaving aside I dislike Bioware's approach to DLC, one of the chaps working on the game, Manveer Heir, has posted less than lovely things about white people. I don't especially feel like throwing my money towards a firm that tolerates that sort of bullshit.
That's fair enough! I'm guessing there will be day 1 DLC (when is there not, these days)
Interesting result from Eltham. Very much the kind of area where I think 'Blue Labour' would flourish but Corbyn's policies and priorities go down like a bowl of sick. Eltham has been Labour since 1997 IIRC correctly but Clive Efford will be more than a little worried seeing this I'd think
It was a split ward anyway, and a swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con is not too bad for Labour really despite losing the seat. Like the Wandsworth result , it fails to bear out the findings of the national polls.
This post brought to you by the Labour Small Straws Society....
You appear wilfully ignorant of psephological facts you don't like. Labour has only won this ward once -ie 2014. It was a comfortable Tory seat in 2010 -2006 -and 2002. For Labour to lose by just 38 votes here is a good result for them.
The first sentence there shows a remarkable, nigh on spectacular, lack of self-awareness...
no, no, no. Oppositions always lose local authority seats to the government party as mid term approaches, didn't you know?
Apologies sire - one of those golden rules that history stubbornly doesn't seem to fit with anymore....?
In 1960 and 1961 the Labour Opposition lost several hundred seats to a Tory Government that had already been in power for a decade!
I think it'd be stupid for the government to make an argument about whether or not it is reversible, since it just invites appeal to the ECJ which would look so terrible it isn't worth thinking about!
Just increased my bet on Sarkozy for FR president. Next interesting election. Spring 2017.
I think MLP will campaign on Frexit and force Juppé or Sarkozy into offering it or they might lose. They have to take her seriously after Trump. The ignored are not in the mood to continue being ignored. There is a 30% shot that France will vote to leave the EU in the next couple of years IMO.
The main Opposition party going backwards, losing ten seats, is ominous news for them.
Labour = Democrats = French Socialists
m.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc7XIsC6KCg
Great watch.. weren't people here asking why he was in MI too, and then saying it probably had something to do with him firing his pollster and not knowing what he was doing?
Seems Bill Clinton warned them that they need to do more with white working class in places like W Virginia and got ignored.
That Dem party is dead, it is now the party of ultra liberals, blacks and Hispanics.
There must be a risk of the Dems "doing a UK Labour" and becoming a party that can only win in CA and the north-east. As far as I can tell Elizabeth Warren is Jeremy Corbyn in a skirt.
Prior to going into politics Elizabeth Warren did some really great work on the microeconomics of middle-class households and the counter-intuitive effects of women entering the workplace creating more precarity. She's not Jeremy Corbyn, but whether she'd be able to flip Arizona is another matter.
Seems Bill Clinton warned them that they need to do more with white working class in places like W Virginia and got ignored.
That Dem party is dead, it is now the party of ultra liberals, blacks and Hispanics.
There must be a risk of the Dems "doing a UK Labour". As far as I can tell Elizabeth Warren is Jeremy Corbyn in a skirt.
Yes, she's just made a stupid statement on Trump's victory as well. If the Dems pick her instead of their Dan Jarvis then they are finished for 2020 IMO.
Tammy Duckworth got elected to the senate on Tuesday, having already served in the house since 2013, she will have proper political experience by 2020, she's a Vet who lost her legs in Iraq, and seems fairly sane on the political spectrum. She's the democrats Dan Jarvis for sure. She ticks about 18 different boxes while actually having a story to tell beyond that, not clintonesque establishment, former vet, patriot, genuine left wing not triangulation etc.
Only flaw is she was born in Bangkok to american father, a bit like Cruz with Canada. Whether that would actually stop her remains to be seen.
I think it'd be stupid for the government to make an argument about whether or not it is reversible, since it just invites appeal to the ECJ which would look so terrible it isn't worth thinking about!
There are any number of mug punter bets on offer from the bookies right now appearing under the heading "Donald Trump Specials" on Oddschecker.
These include, by way of example, odds of 5/4 against him winning the 2020 POTUS Election (having held onto your money for 4 long years), 12/1 against Hillary Clinton being the Democratic candidate against him in 2020 or arguably worst of all, 13/8 against Russia being the first State Visit of his presidency .... there are many more equally rubbish bets on offer.
But one real plum of a bet imho which I noticed last night was a 25/1 offering from Betway against "Donald Trump resigning as President before completing a full term." There are any number of possible ways or reasons why such a scenario might come to pass and too many to go into here but I grabbed what I believed to be outstanding value, attempting to invest a tenner to win £250, but those nice folk at Betway would only allow me the curious stake of £4.39 to win £109.75. Still it's definitely a betting slip to put away under lock and key for the future.
Sadly, the bookie appears to have since taken down this offering, but maybe it's worth looking out for its possible reappearance.
Edit: I've now found this bet on their website (rather than on Oddschecker) and predictably the odds have been slashed from 25/1 to 10/1 ..... oh well, that was good while it lasted!
@peter_from_putney I owe you a drink for your tip of Nevada as firewall for Clinton. I got 16/1 on Ladbrokes and a decent stake. I promised I'd buy you two drinks if the LibDems also win Richmond Park so let's wait until after 1 Dec before I cough up. You live just up the road from me.
Thanks for the offer of a drink - I feel I must own up however and declare that the Nevada being Hillary's Firewall state was in fact Richard Nabavi's suggestion as a saver/addition to my pick of florida as a 25/1 shot - I'm glad you benefited from it however, as did I. As regards Richmond Park, judging by the betting odds, the chances of the LibDems winning there look slim. However, FWIW, there's currently a 4.2% arb opportunity by backing Zac at 3.5 with Betway and backing the Yellow Team at 1.5 with Hills.
Off topic, is @Morris_Dancer around? I thought he'd be interest to know that one of the NPC's in the upcoming Mass Effect game is going to be called PB! (well, Peebee)
Government lawyers are exploring the possibility of arguing in the supreme court that article 50 could be reversed by parliament at any time before the UK completes its exit from the European Union.
Prominent academic experts have told the Guardian they know lawyers have been sounded out by the government’s legal team, about the potential change of tack, which some argue would lead to a victory in the case brought by Gina Miller and other campaigners.
The main Opposition party going backwards, losing ten seats, is ominous news for them.
Labour = Democrats = French Socialists
m.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc7XIsC6KCg
Great watch.. weren't people here asking why he was in MI too, and then saying it probably had something to do with him firing his pollster and not knowing what he was doing?
Indeed, in fact there may have been a thread on the topic...
Rod Crosby, late of this parish, has asked me to post his pre-Election spreadsheet. It's really quite impressive. You'll see he claims to have made £50,000 on Trump winning.
You'll also see he's peeved about being excluded from PB, and he's told me he will never return.
Personally, I regret that. Rod said some dumb things, but he is also extremely acute on politics and betting, as this link shows.
But of course the site belongs to Mike, and the decision is his.
Ed Balls losing his seat predicted when Ed Miliband was on 40% midterm, Brexit probably happening, Obama called correctly in 08 and 12 & never wavering from President Trump.
A full House for Rod.
A coalition in 2010 A majority in 2015
Both thought to be implausible at the time and called correctly.
Did he call Corbyn's victory when it still looked implausible?
Government lawyers are exploring the possibility of arguing in the supreme court that article 50 could be reversed by parliament at any time before the UK completes its exit from the European Union.
Prominent academic experts have told the Guardian they know lawyers have been sounded out by the government’s legal team, about the potential change of tack, which some argue would lead to a victory in the case brought by Gina Miller and other campaigners.
Government lawyers are exploring the possibility of arguing in the supreme court that article 50 could be reversed by parliament at any time before the UK completes its exit from the European Union.
Prominent academic experts have told the Guardian they know lawyers have been sounded out by the government’s legal team, about the potential change of tack, which some argue would lead to a victory in the case brought by Gina Miller and other campaigners.
Like has been said down thread, how does the fact that it is reversible by the royal prerogative actually change anything? Stupid decision, they just just get the appeal out the way and lay the bill before Parliament.
Edit: Oh, they are saying Parliament can reverse it? i'm not sure I see the logic there either...
Fighting the original case delayed the decision. Appealing delays it further. Appealing to the ECJ delays even more. Losing generates another delay.
Wasn't an appeal to the Supreme court already factored into the schedule? Anyway, I think it'll be quite a surprise to many when Article 50 is actually triggered!
Seems Bill Clinton warned them that they need to do more with white working class in places like W Virginia and got ignored.
That Dem party is dead, it is now the party of ultra liberals, blacks and Hispanics.
There must be a risk of the Dems "doing a UK Labour". As far as I can tell Elizabeth Warren is Jeremy Corbyn in a skirt.
Yes, she's just made a stupid statement on Trump's victory as well. If the Dems pick her instead of their Dan Jarvis then they are finished for 2020 IMO.
Tammy Duckworth got elected to the senate on Tuesday, having already served in the house since 2013, she will have proper political experience by 2020, she's a Vet who lost her legs in Iraq, and seems fairly sane on the political spectrum. She's the democrats Dan Jarvis for sure. She ticks about 18 different boxes while actually having a story to tell beyond that, not clintonesque establishment, former vet, patriot, genuine left wing not triangulation etc.
Only flaw is she was born in Bangkok to american father, a bit like Cruz with Canada. Whether that would actually stop her remains to be seen.
50/1 on paddy power.
I'd want to see details about what role her father was in at the time of her birth. She might be able to claim Natural Born status if he was serving in the military at the time. If, on the other hand, he was working privately then she's without doubt ineligible for the presidency.
Seems Bill Clinton warned them that they need to do more with white working class in places like W Virginia and got ignored.
That Dem party is dead, it is now the party of ultra liberals, blacks and Hispanics.
Steady on. Less than 1% of the voters voting differently and we'd be talking about how anyone could have ever thought Trump would be Predisdent.
The question is what happens next time.
This was achieved while Trump pissed off the whole GOP base. Think about a GOP candidate who wraps the Trump policies into a friendlier face for the GOP would have cleaned up.
Like has been said down thread, how does the fact that it is reversible by the royal prerogative actually change anything? Stupid decision, they just just get the appeal out the way and lay the bill before Parliament.
It's a crucial point. If it's potentially reversible, then it doesn't of itself change the law. That attacks a crucial step in the argument.
There are any number of mug punter bets on offer from the bookies right now appearing under the heading "Donald Trump Specials" on Oddschecker.
These include, by way of example, odds of 5/4 against him winning the 2020 POTUS Election (having held onto your money for 4 long years), 12/1 against Hillary Clinton being the Democratic candidate against him in 2020 or arguably worst of all, 13/8 against Russia being the first State Visit of his presidency .... there are many more equally rubbish bets on offer.
But one real plum of a bet imho which I noticed last night was a 25/1 offering from Betway against "Donald Trump resigning as President before completing a full term." There are any number of possible ways or reasons why such a scenario might come to pass and too many to go into here but I grabbed what I believed to be outstanding value, attempting to invest a tenner to win £250, but those nice folk at Betway would only allow me the curious stake of £4.39 to win £109.75. Still it's definitely a betting slip to put away under lock and key for the future.
Sadly, the bookie appears to have since taken down this offering, but maybe it's worth looking out for its possible reappearance.
Edit: I've now found this bet on their website (rather than on Oddschecker) and predictably the odds have been slashed from 25/1 to 10/1 ..... oh well, that was good while it lasted!
@peter_from_putney I owe you a drink for your tip of Nevada as firewall for Clinton. I got 16/1 on Ladbrokes and a decent stake. I promised I'd buy you two drinks if the LibDems also win Richmond Park so let's wait until after 1 Dec before I cough up. You live just up the road from me.
Thanks for the offer of a drink - I feel I must own up however and declare that the Nevada being Hillary's Firewall state was in fact Richard Nabavi's suggestion as a saver/addition to my pick of florida as a 25/1 shot - I'm glad you benefited from it however, as did I. As regards Richmond Park, judging by the betting odds, the chances of the LibDems winning there look slim. However, FWIW, there's currently a 4.2% arb opportunity by backing Zac at 3.5 with Betway and backing the Yellow Team at 1.5 with Hills.
Oops, sorry I got those two odds the wrong way round .... Zac is of course at Hills' 1.5, with the LibDems best priced at 3.5 with Betway, the arb still applies of course, providing one doesn't wish to stake more than tuppence halfpenny with Betway!
Seems Bill Clinton warned them that they need to do more with white working class in places like W Virginia and got ignored.
That Dem party is dead, it is now the party of ultra liberals, blacks and Hispanics.
There must be a risk of the Dems "doing a UK Labour". As far as I can tell Elizabeth Warren is Jeremy Corbyn in a skirt.
Yes, she's just made a stupid statement on Trump's victory as well. If the Dems pick her instead of their Dan Jarvis then they are finished for 2020 IMO.
Tammy Duckworth got elected to the senate on Tuesday, having already served in the house since 2013, she will have proper political experience by 2020, she's a Vet who lost her legs in Iraq, and seems fairly sane on the political spectrum. She's the democrats Dan Jarvis for sure. She ticks about 18 different boxes while actually having a story to tell beyond that, not clintonesque establishment, former vet, patriot, genuine left wing not triangulation etc.
Only flaw is she was born in Bangkok to american father, a bit like Cruz with Canada. Whether that would actually stop her remains to be seen.
50/1 on paddy power.
I'd want to see details about what role her father was in at the time of her birth. She might be able to claim Natural Born status if he was serving in the military at the time. If, on the other hand, he was working privately then she's without doubt ineligible for the presidency.
Don't the Democrats have a bone fide genuine Native American superstar lined up for 2020 ?
Like has been said down thread, how does the fact that it is reversible by the royal prerogative actually change anything? Stupid decision, they just just get the appeal out the way and lay the bill before Parliament.
It's a crucial point. If it's potentially reversible, then it doesn't of itself change the law. That attacks a crucial step in the argument.
I had originally thought they were arguing that the prerogative power to invoke was reversible by prerogative power, but instead it was by parliament. I wonder what the legal mechanism for Parliament reversing Article 50 is? Through an Act? I'm not sure how that changes the fact that the Council will have already accepted our letter.
Clearly a false story created by the lizards of the liberal media. We all know from Plato's indisputable sources that Hillary is so neurologically impaired that she cannot climb a single step without assistance. Walking dogs in woodland is clearly impossible!
Regarding 2020, it seems a bit early to speculate. After all, very few people got this election right four hours before before polling, let alone four years.
Historical precedent points to Trump, as for the Democrats - who knows. I wonder if the Dems will ditch the super-delegates at any rate.
Clearly a false story created by the lizards of the liberal media. We all know from Plato's indisputable sources that Hillary is so neurologically impaired that she cannot climb a single step without assistance. Walking dogs in woodland is clearly impossible!
Come on, it's obviously an elaborate walking stick!
Seems Bill Clinton warned them that they need to do more with white working class in places like W Virginia and got ignored.
That Dem party is dead, it is now the party of ultra liberals, blacks and Hispanics.
I expect the Dems will take control of both Senate and House in the mid term elections in 2018 .
The Senate will be a very big ask. They're defending 23 seats (25 if you count the two Democrat-caucusing independents). To gain control, they'll need to take two off the Republicans. Nebraska is one possibility, where the GOP made a gain in 2012; where's the other?
That's not to say it can't happen but it does rely on things going horribly wrong for the Republicans these next two years.
Despite the gerrymandered districts, the House might be the easier target (though the House doesn't help with the SCOTUS nominations).
Historical precedent points to Trump, as for the Democrats - who knows. I wonder if the Dems will ditch the super-delegates at any rate.
The Dems just need to have a proper primary contest with some half-decent candidates. So does the GOP, for that matter, if Trump doesn't want to stand again or by then is unpopular.
Interesting result from Eltham. Very much the kind of area where I think 'Blue Labour' would flourish but Corbyn's policies and priorities go down like a bowl of sick. Eltham has been Labour since 1997 IIRC correctly but Clive Efford will be more than a little worried seeing this I'd think
It was a split ward anyway, and a swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con is not too bad for Labour really despite losing the seat. Like the Wandsworth result , it fails to bear out the findings of the national polls.
This post brought to you by the Labour Small Straws Society....
You appear wilfully ignorant of psephological facts you don't like. Labour has only won this ward once -ie 2014. It was a comfortable Tory seat in 2010 -2006 -and 2002. For Labour to lose by just 38 votes here is a good result for them.
The first sentence there shows a remarkable, nigh on spectacular, lack of self-awareness...
no, no, no. Oppositions always lose local authority seats to the government party as mid term approaches, didn't you know?
Apologies sire - one of those golden rules that history stubbornly doesn't seem to fit with anymore....?
In 1960 and 1961 the Labour Opposition lost several hundred seats to a Tory Government that had already been in power for a decade!
The fact that you've had to go back over half a century to give a counter-example suggests that it's a pretty damn rare occurrence.
Seems Bill Clinton warned them that they need to do more with white working class in places like W Virginia and got ignored.
That Dem party is dead, it is now the party of ultra liberals, blacks and Hispanics.
I expect the Dems will take control of both Senate and House in the mid term elections in 2018 .
The House, possibly.
The Senate, it's hard to see anything other than Republican gains in 2018. The Democrats will be defending 25 out of 33 seats, including seats in North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia, and Montana.
Regarding 2020, it seems a bit early to speculate. After all, very few people got this election right four hours before before polling, let alone four years.
Historical precedent points to Trump, as for the Democrats - who knows. I wonder if the Dems will ditch the super-delegates at any rate.
Not sure that historical precedent is much help; who knows if he will even want to run a second time ? He certainly won't feel any obligation to the Republican party to do so.
Just increased my bet on Sarkozy for FR president. Next interesting election. Spring 2017.
I think MLP will campaign on Frexit and force Juppé or Sarkozy into offering it or they might lose. They have to take her seriously after Trump. The ignored are not in the mood to continue being ignored. There is a 30% shot that France will vote to leave the EU in the next couple of years IMO.
Another terrorist event at the wrong/right time is all it will take.
Seems Bill Clinton warned them that they need to do more with white working class in places like W Virginia and got ignored.
That Dem party is dead, it is now the party of ultra liberals, blacks and Hispanics.
There must be a risk of the Dems "doing a UK Labour". As far as I can tell Elizabeth Warren is Jeremy Corbyn in a skirt.
Yes, she's just made a stupid statement on Trump's victory as well. If the Dems pick her instead of their Dan Jarvis then they are finished for 2020 IMO.
Tammy Duckworth got elected to the senate on Tuesday, having already served in the house since 2013, she will have proper political experience by 2020, she's a Vet who lost her legs in Iraq, and seems fairly sane on the political spectrum. She's the democrats Dan Jarvis for sure. She ticks about 18 different boxes while actually having a story to tell beyond that, not clintonesque establishment, former vet, patriot, genuine left wing not triangulation etc.
Only flaw is she was born in Bangkok to american father, a bit like Cruz with Canada. Whether that would actually stop her remains to be seen.
50/1 on paddy power.
I'd want to see details about what role her father was in at the time of her birth. She might be able to claim Natural Born status if he was serving in the military at the time. If, on the other hand, he was working privately then she's without doubt ineligible for the presidency.
Don't the Democrats have a bone fide genuine Native American superstar lined up for 2020 ?
Ticking boxes will be the wrong way to go, so on current form, yes, probably.
Seems Bill Clinton warned them that they need to do more with white working class in places like W Virginia and got ignored.
That Dem party is dead, it is now the party of ultra liberals, blacks and Hispanics.
Steady on. Less than 1% of the voters voting differently and we'd be talking about how anyone could have ever thought Trump would be Predisdent.
The question is what happens next time.
Or lest we forget that Clinton might end up winning the popular vote by around 2 million.
The Democrats always* win the popular vote but lose in the EC when a two-term Dem president leaves office.
*Well, the last twice, anyway.
The last two (full) term Democrat president to leave the White House before "the last twice" was Woodrow Wilson. The one before that was Andrew Jackson in 1836.
Seems Bill Clinton warned them that they need to do more with white working class in places like W Virginia and got ignored.
That Dem party is dead, it is now the party of ultra liberals, blacks and Hispanics.
I expect the Dems will take control of both Senate and House in the mid term elections in 2018 .
The House, possibly.
The Senate, it's hard to see anything other than Republican gains in 2018. The Democrats will be defending 25 out of 33 seats, including seats in North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia, and Montana.
How anyone can call an election two years away when barely anyone could call this weeks election on the night is beyond me.
In two years a lot could happen. We just don't know how it will play.
Mr. D, it's the storyline DLC and not finishing a game properly unless you get the DLC that annoys me.
I also agree the Government would be bloody daft to argue Article 50 is revocable. Better to just have a one line bill make its way through Parliament than have this go to the ECJ.
Fighting the original case delayed the decision. Appealing delays it further. Appealing to the ECJ delays even more. Losing generates another delay.
Even if you're a Brexiteer it seems to me that it's in our interests to wait out the French and German elections and then see the lay of the land.
Given that all of the real negotiation will be 1 year and 364 days after A50 is triggered, waiting for the elections doesn't seem that crucial.
Sarkozy is indicating he wants to renegotiate the treaties. We shouldn't preempt that by starting the clock to leaving.
The Trump victory will make a lot of Brits think that perhaps Europe wasn't so bad after all. A few Alt-Right types aside, the British will regard the Trump thing as a grotesque and mirthless farce. (Farage setting himself up as Trump's chief parasite, with an aim of lording it up over the rest of us, only adds to the grisly spectacle.) Let's face it, Trump makes Junker seem positively wholesome. With the US as a horror show, if Europe becomes chastened and humbled by its own populist uprisings, Britain might be tempted to look again and re-engage.
No GOP primary implies that Trump is sitting pretty in the White House. Who'd want to put themselves forward in those circumstances for the Dems? It would probably be a weak field of sacrificial lambs.
Seems Bill Clinton warned them that they need to do more with white working class in places like W Virginia and got ignored.
That Dem party is dead, it is now the party of ultra liberals, blacks and Hispanics.
I expect the Dems will take control of both Senate and House in the mid term elections in 2018 .
The House, possibly.
The Senate, it's hard to see anything other than Republican gains in 2018. The Democrats will be defending 25 out of 33 seats, including seats in North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia, and Montana.
How anyone can call an election two years away when barely anyone could call this weeks election on the night is beyond me.
In two years a lot could happen. We just don't know how it will play.
True. But all Sean and I are saying is that to win 27 out of 33 states is a monumentally big ask.
Like has been said down thread, how does the fact that it is reversible by the royal prerogative actually change anything? Stupid decision, they just just get the appeal out the way and lay the bill before Parliament.
It's a crucial point. If it's potentially reversible, then it doesn't of itself change the law. That attacks a crucial step in the argument.
I had originally thought they were arguing that the prerogative power to invoke was reversible by prerogative power, but instead it was by parliament. I wonder what the legal mechanism for Parliament reversing Article 50 is? Through an Act? I'm not sure how that changes the fact that the Council will have already accepted our letter.
Nicola Sturgeon will instruct the rest of Europe what to do, of course.
If not Mr Salmond will get his golfing friend to threaten a nuclear war.
That said, I'm unlikely to get Mass Effect Andromeda. Leaving aside I dislike Bioware's approach to DLC, one of the chaps working on the game, Manveer Heir, has posted less than lovely things about white people. I don't especially feel like throwing my money towards a firm that tolerates that sort of bullshit.
More fool you. Bioware have produced the genre defining RPGs of the last 20 years. Planescape Torment (indirectly), Baldur's Gate 2, Mass Effect, KOTOR. DLC is unavoidable.
Interesting result from Eltham. Very much the kind of area where I think 'Blue Labour' would flourish but Corbyn's policies and priorities go down like a bowl of sick. Eltham has been Labour since 1997 IIRC correctly but Clive Efford will be more than a little worried seeing this I'd think
It was a split ward anyway, and a swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con is not too bad for Labour really despite losing the seat. Like the Wandsworth result , it fails to bear out the findings of the national polls.
I used to live in this ward when it was called Eltham Park. It was always solidly Tory although boundary changes gave Labour a better chance.
Comments
I did not know that.
That said, I'm unlikely to get Mass Effect Andromeda. Leaving aside I dislike Bioware's approach to DLC, one of the chaps working on the game, Manveer Heir, has posted less than lovely things about white people. I don't especially feel like throwing my money towards a firm that tolerates that sort of bullshit.
A majority in 2015
Both thought to be implausible at the time and called correctly.
A moderate stake on Juppe is the correct bet here.
Only flaw is she was born in Bangkok to american father, a bit like Cruz with Canada. Whether that would actually stop her remains to be seen.
50/1 on paddy power.
As regards Richmond Park, judging by the betting odds, the chances of the LibDems winning there look slim. However, FWIW, there's currently a 4.2% arb opportunity by backing Zac at 3.5 with Betway and backing the Yellow Team at 1.5 with Hills.
The question is what happens next time.
Government lawyers are exploring the possibility of arguing in the supreme court that article 50 could be reversed by parliament at any time before the UK completes its exit from the European Union.
Prominent academic experts have told the Guardian they know lawyers have been sounded out by the government’s legal team, about the potential change of tack, which some argue would lead to a victory in the case brought by Gina Miller and other campaigners.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/11/brexit-could-be-reversed-government-lawyers-may-argue
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/11/06/trump-might-be-engaging-in-some-polling-denial/#vanilla-comments
Fighting the original case delayed the decision. Appealing delays it further. Appealing to the ECJ delays even more. Losing generates another delay.
Edit: Oh, they are saying Parliament can reverse it? i'm not sure I see the logic there either...
Trump and Nigel Farage to have a No 1 hit single before the end of 2020
50/1 at BetFred, if you fancy a flutter. I don't!
It is a genuine question.
Trump 2
Obama 2
Bush 2
Clinton 2
Bush 1 (Followed GOP though)
Reagen 2
Carter 1
Nixon-Ford (2 terms between them)
Kennedy-Johnson (2 terms between them)
Eisenhower 2
Truman ! 2
So on historical precedent Trump is looking good for two terms in office
Harrison only 1 term, but he Cleveland and so that situation looks a touch different.
Jimmy Carter looks the odd one out to me, and he was a Democrat.
*Well, the last twice, anyway.
Sad. He should be a stable for this site and his absence will certainly cost a lot of us money.
That's not to say it can't happen but it does rely on things going horribly wrong for the Republicans these next two years.
Despite the gerrymandered districts, the House might be the easier target (though the House doesn't help with the SCOTUS nominations).
The Senate, it's hard to see anything other than Republican gains in 2018. The Democrats will be defending 25 out of 33 seats, including seats in North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia, and Montana.
Depends on whether he finds governing fun.
In two years a lot could happen. We just don't know how it will play.
I also agree the Government would be bloody daft to argue Article 50 is revocable. Better to just have a one line bill make its way through Parliament than have this go to the ECJ.
US POTUS and UK General Election in the same year
Sadly (Probably) No GOP primary.
safe spacescomfort zone.http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bulgaria-election-russia-idUKKBN13611F?il=0
We didn't vote to join the USA. Trump's character doesn't make Juncker or the EU any more palatable.
Would they be as large as Farron-Rock for 2020?
NEW THREAD
It's way to early to be predicting what the Dems will do as a party, 2018 is going to be very important and completely unknowable at the moment.
If not Mr Salmond will get his golfing friend to threaten a nuclear war.
Simples.