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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the 2nd week running CON make a local by-election gain – this time from LAB

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Theuniondivvie

Looks like the fabled Article 50 surge will be needed just to get UKIP back to the point of being a diddy, wee party with (almost) 1 mp.

TheKingofLangley

Interesting result from Eltham. Very much the kind of area where I think 'Blue Labour' would flourish but Corbyn's policies and priorities go down like a bowl of sick. Eltham has been Labour since 1997 IIRC correctly but Clive Efford will be more than a little worried seeing this I'd think

Philip_Thompson

'Not First' like Clinton

justin124

TheKingofLangley said:

Interesting result from Eltham. Very much the kind of area where I think 'Blue Labour' would flourish but Corbyn's policies and priorities go down like a bowl of sick. Eltham has been Labour since 1997 IIRC correctly but Clive Efford will be more than a little worried seeing this I'd think

It was a split ward anyway, and a swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con is not too bad for Labour really despite losing the seat. Like the Wandsworth result , it fails to bear out the findings of the national polls.

SimonStClare

UKIP continue their slide, will this stop, once they have a new leader, or is it terminal decline?

[edit] Cheers Mr Hayfield, excellent work.

Philip_Thompson

On topic while I'm very wary of paying too much attention to 'parish council' results, this is in line with opinion polling. In 2015 despite the media punditry we saw a massive swing in England and Wales to the return of Two Party politics. I strongly suspect that barring an SDP-style split in Labour that is only going to continue.

We should not rule out a Corbyn victory, after Brexit and Trump it has to be clear than any option on the ballot can win. But I fully expect that barring a formal split we are going to see the continued withering of the third parties as people feel compelled to ultimately pick a side between two very different choices. The idea that "they're all the same" has to be history for now.

Bromptonaut

Farron's differentiation strategy seems to be paying dividends. Winning Richmond would be a yuge boost.

IanB2

How can the Tories be up 30% in Horsham when no-one else appears to have lost nearly so much?

TCPoliticalBetting

Local by elections so must be terrible news for the Conservative party.....
What, they are winning?

logical_song

SimonStClare said:

UKIP continue their slide, will this stop, once they have a new leader, or is it terminal decline?

[edit] Cheers Mr Hayfield, excellent work.

Yes UKIP down 14.5% and 8.3% and didn't even stand in the other two.
By contrast LibDems up in all four.

GeoffM

IanB2 said:

How can the Tories be up 30% in Horsham when no-one else appears to have lost nearly so much?

No Independent this time around?

http://www.westsussextoday.co.uk/news/candidates-unveiled-for-horsham-district-council-elections-1-6698333

perdix

Telegraph still trumpeting (!) that Farage will be the go-between for Tories with Trump despite denial by No 10.

Mortimer

justin124 said:

TheKingofLangley said:

Interesting result from Eltham. Very much the kind of area where I think 'Blue Labour' would flourish but Corbyn's policies and priorities go down like a bowl of sick. Eltham has been Labour since 1997 IIRC correctly but Clive Efford will be more than a little worried seeing this I'd think

It was a split ward anyway, and a swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con is not too bad for Labour really despite losing the seat. Like the Wandsworth result , it fails to bear out the findings of the national polls.

This post brought to you by the Labour Small Straws Society....

AlastairMeeks

Loosely on topic, I see that the Conservatives have chosen their candidate:

http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/11/caroline-johnson-wins-the-nomination-for-the-sleaford-and-north-hykeham-by-election.html

No parachute required and the winning candidate is impeccably on-message.

glw

perdix said:

Telegraph still trumpeting (!) that Farage will be the go-between for Tories with Trump despite denial by No 10.

Maybe they mean that The Donald will appoint Farage and it's nothing to do with Downing Street?

Mortimer

Bromptonaut said:

Farron's differentiation strategy seems to be paying dividends. Winning Richmond would be a yuge boost.

Most people don't know who Farron is.

Until he breaks through that pretty massive barrier, differentiation is for the birds...

HYUFD

SimonStClare said:

UKIP continue their slide, will this stop, once they have a new leader, or is it terminal decline?

[edit] Cheers Mr Hayfield, excellent work.

If May does hard Brexit and we leave the single market completely then UKIP's decline may be terminal, if May compromises at all then UKIP will stay a force. Notice the movement last night from UKIP voters was almost entirely to the Tories, some of them could go back if May goes soft

Black_Rook

Philip_Thompson said:

On topic while I'm very wary of paying too much attention to 'parish council' results, this is in line with opinion polling. In 2015 despite the media punditry we saw a massive swing in England and Wales to the return of Two Party politics. I strongly suspect that barring an SDP-style split in Labour that is only going to continue.

We should not rule out a Corbyn victory, after Brexit and Trump it has to be clear than any option on the ballot can win. But I fully expect that barring a formal split we are going to see the continued withering of the third parties as people feel compelled to ultimately pick a side between two very different choices. The idea that "they're all the same" has to be history for now.

A distinct possibility. Apart from the Tories and Labour, it's more or less as you were for all the other parties in the national VI polls, relative to their positions in the 2015 GE. I am also highly sceptical of reading anything into by-elections, and won't get any more excited over Tory gains as I did over the Lib Dem ones, i.e. not at all.

The one part of Great Britain where the conventional split doesn't apply is, of course, Scotland, with it's massive SNP vote and split Unionist opposition. Both the Holyrood results and more recent polling place the Conservatives second, but not a vast stretch ahead of Labour. Will be interesting to see, especially when all the councils come up for election next May, whether that lead can be extended, or if Labour's residual support of around 16-17% are die-hards.

edmundintokyo

perdix said:

Telegraph still trumpeting (!) that Farage will be the go-between for Tories with Trump despite denial by No 10.

The British need a deal, the Americans don't. If Trump wants to negotiate via the ghost of Jimmy Saville, that's how May's going to have to do it.

That said, I wouldn't be surprised if the whole thing is just Farage trumpeting himself.

MaxPB

glw said:

perdix said:

Telegraph still trumpeting (!) that Farage will be the go-between for Tories with Trump despite denial by No 10.

Maybe they mean that The Donald will appoint Farage and it's nothing to do with Downing Street?

Give Nige citizenship and make him US ambassador to the UK?

MP_SE

Bromptonaut said:

Farron's differentiation strategy seems to be paying dividends. Winning Richmond would be a yuge boost.

I would rather deal with facts and not fantasy.

The Lib Dems are an irrelevance and will continue to be so under Farron.

peter_from_putney

FPT

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But one real plum of a bet imho which I noticed last night was a 25/1 offering from Betway against "Donald Trump resigning as President before completing a full term." There are any number of possible ways or reasons why such a scenario might come to pass and too many to go into here but I grabbed what I believed to be outstanding value, attempting to invest a tenner to win £250, but those nice folk at Betway would only allow me the curious stake of £4.39 to win £109.75. Still it's definitely a betting slip to put away under lock and key for the future.

Sadly, the bookie appears to have since taken down this offering, but maybe it's worth looking out for its possible reappearance.

Edit: I've now found this bet on their website (rather than on Oddschecker) and predictably the odds have been slashed from 25/1 to 10/1 ..... oh well, that was good while it lasted!

justin124

Mortimer said:

justin124 said:

TheKingofLangley said:

Interesting result from Eltham. Very much the kind of area where I think 'Blue Labour' would flourish but Corbyn's policies and priorities go down like a bowl of sick. Eltham has been Labour since 1997 IIRC correctly but Clive Efford will be more than a little worried seeing this I'd think

It was a split ward anyway, and a swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con is not too bad for Labour really despite losing the seat. Like the Wandsworth result , it fails to bear out the findings of the national polls.

This post brought to you by the Labour Small Straws Society....

You appear wilfully ignorant of psephological facts you don't like. Labour has only won this ward once -ie 2014. It was a comfortable Tory seat in 2010 -2006 -and 2002. For Labour to lose by just 38 votes here is a good result for them.

Mortimer

justin124 said:

Mortimer said:

justin124 said:

TheKingofLangley said:

Interesting result from Eltham. Very much the kind of area where I think 'Blue Labour' would flourish but Corbyn's policies and priorities go down like a bowl of sick. Eltham has been Labour since 1997 IIRC correctly but Clive Efford will be more than a little worried seeing this I'd think

It was a split ward anyway, and a swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con is not too bad for Labour really despite losing the seat. Like the Wandsworth result , it fails to bear out the findings of the national polls.

This post brought to you by the Labour Small Straws Society....

You appear wilfully ignorant of psephological facts you don't like. Labour has only won this ward once -ie 2014. It was a comfortable Tory seat in 2010 -2006 -and 2002. For Labour to lose by just 38 votes here is a good result for them.

The first sentence there shows a remarkable, nigh on spectacular, lack of self-awareness...

TheWhiteRabbit

peter_from_putney said:

FPT

***** Betting Post *****

There are any number of mug punter bets on offer from the bookies right now appearing under the heading "Donald Trump Specials" on Oddschecker.

These include, by way of example, odds of 5/4 against him winning the 2020 POTUS Election (having held onto your money for 4 long years), 12/1 against Hillary Clinton being the Democratic candidate against him in 2020 or arguably worst of all, 13/8 against Russia being the first State Visit of his presidency .... there are many more equally rubbish bets on offer.

But one real plum of a bet imho which I noticed last night was a 25/1 offering from Betway against "Donald Trump resigning as President before completing a full term." There are any number of possible ways or reasons why such a scenario might come to pass and too many to go into here but I grabbed what I believed to be outstanding value, attempting to invest a tenner to win £250, but those nice folk at Betway would only allow me the curious stake of £4.39 to win £109.75. Still it's definitely a betting slip to put away under lock and key for the future.

Sadly, the bookie appears to have since taken down this offering, but maybe it's worth looking out for its possible reappearance.

Edit: I've now found this bet on their website (rather than on Oddschecker) and predictably the odds have been slashed from 25/1 to 10/1 ..... oh well, that was good while it lasted!

Betway aggressively respond - I assume automated - to bets placed.

Essexit

justin124 said:

Mortimer said:

justin124 said:

TheKingofLangley said:

Interesting result from Eltham. Very much the kind of area where I think 'Blue Labour' would flourish but Corbyn's policies and priorities go down like a bowl of sick. Eltham has been Labour since 1997 IIRC correctly but Clive Efford will be more than a little worried seeing this I'd think

It was a split ward anyway, and a swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con is not too bad for Labour really despite losing the seat. Like the Wandsworth result , it fails to bear out the findings of the national polls.

This post brought to you by the Labour Small Straws Society....

You appear wilfully ignorant of psephological facts you don't like. Labour has only won this ward once -ie 2014. It was a comfortable Tory seat in 2010 -2006 -and 2002. For Labour to lose by just 38 votes here is a good result for them.

What about the road from Ramsgate Parish Council to 10 Downing Street?

peter_from_putney

Mortimer said:

justin124 said:

TheKingofLangley said:

Interesting result from Eltham. Very much the kind of area where I think 'Blue Labour' would flourish but Corbyn's policies and priorities go down like a bowl of sick. Eltham has been Labour since 1997 IIRC correctly but Clive Efford will be more than a little worried seeing this I'd think

It was a split ward anyway, and a swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con is not too bad for Labour really despite losing the seat. Like the Wandsworth result , it fails to bear out the findings of the national polls.

This post brought to you by the Labour Small Straws Society....

Yes, the Wandsworth result in my neck of the woods, is truly a shocker for the Tories. So much for their maintaining the lowest Poll Tax in all the land!

SouthamObserver

justin124 said:

TheKingofLangley said:

Interesting result from Eltham. Very much the kind of area where I think 'Blue Labour' would flourish but Corbyn's policies and priorities go down like a bowl of sick. Eltham has been Labour since 1997 IIRC correctly but Clive Efford will be more than a little worried seeing this I'd think

It was a split ward anyway, and a swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con is not too bad for Labour really despite losing the seat. Like the Wandsworth result , it fails to bear out the findings of the national polls.

Both seats inside the M25, so part of a different country. Any kind of swing from Labour to Tory in London is shocking.

Jonathan

SouthamObserver said:

justin124 said:

TheKingofLangley said:

Interesting result from Eltham. Very much the kind of area where I think 'Blue Labour' would flourish but Corbyn's policies and priorities go down like a bowl of sick. Eltham has been Labour since 1997 IIRC correctly but Clive Efford will be more than a little worried seeing this I'd think

It was a split ward anyway, and a swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con is not too bad for Labour really despite losing the seat. Like the Wandsworth result , it fails to bear out the findings of the national polls.

Both seats inside the M25, so part of a different country. Any kind of swing from Labour to Tory in London is shocking.

How come? In local elections, in Nov with a turnout of circa 20% national factors are heavily diluted.

MarqueeMark

AlastairMeeks said:

Loosely on topic, I see that the Conservatives have chosen their candidate:

http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/11/caroline-johnson-wins-the-nomination-for-the-sleaford-and-north-hykeham-by-election.html

No parachute required and the winning candidate is impeccably on-message.

She has nearly 10,000 UKIP votes to squeeze. Could have a handy majority even on a significantly reduced turnout.

MarqueeMark

Another thing to note is the big drops in the Green vote. Going to the LibDems? Or are they now Corbynistas?

paulyork64

peter_from_putney said:

FPT

***** Betting Post *****

There are any number of mug punter bets on offer from the bookies right now appearing under the heading "Donald Trump Specials" on Oddschecker.

These include, by way of example, odds of 5/4 against him winning the 2020 POTUS Election (having held onto your money for 4 long years), 12/1 against Hillary Clinton being the Democratic candidate against him in 2020 or arguably worst of all, 13/8 against Russia being the first State Visit of his presidency .... there are many more equally rubbish bets on offer.

But one real plum of a bet imho which I noticed last night was a 25/1 offering from Betway against "Donald Trump resigning as President before completing a full term." There are any number of possible ways or reasons why such a scenario might come to pass and too many to go into here but I grabbed what I believed to be outstanding value, attempting to invest a tenner to win £250, but those nice folk at Betway would only allow me the curious stake of £4.39 to win £109.75. Still it's definitely a betting slip to put away under lock and key for the future.

Sadly, the bookie appears to have since taken down this offering, but maybe it's worth looking out for its possible reappearance.

Edit: I've now found this bet on their website (rather than on Oddschecker) and predictably the odds have been slashed from 25/1 to 10/1 ..... oh well, that was good while it lasted!

Paddys have a first state visit market out but not on oddschecker. they had Russia at evens fav when I first saw it. now 6/4 alongside Mexico. I got on Canada at 5's.let me get £34 which is the paltry total I had in my account. cut to 7/2 now but I think anything 2/1 or above is value IMO. 4 of last 5 presidents visited canada first and trudeau has already invited him to visit as soon as he can. DYOR.

paulbarker

Again we see a weak Libdem performance as energies are diverted to Richmond Park. After that theres Xmas/New Year then Sleaford. We may not be able to judge Libdem performance properly till March ?

MarqueeMark

peter_from_putney said:

FPT

***** Betting Post *****

There are any number of mug punter bets on offer from the bookies right now appearing under the heading "Donald Trump Specials" on Oddschecker.

These include, by way of example, odds of 5/4 against him winning the 2020 POTUS Election (having held onto your money for 4 long years), 12/1 against Hillary Clinton being the Democratic candidate against him in 2020 or arguably worst of all, 13/8 against Russia being the first State Visit of his presidency .... there are many more equally rubbish bets on offer.

But one real plum of a bet imho which I noticed last night was a 25/1 offering from Betway against "Donald Trump resigning as President before completing a full term." There are any number of possible ways or reasons why such a scenario might come to pass and too many to go into here but I grabbed what I believed to be outstanding value, attempting to invest a tenner to win £250, but those nice folk at Betway would only allow me the curious stake of £4.39 to win £109.75. Still it's definitely a betting slip to put away under lock and key for the future.

Sadly, the bookie appears to have since taken down this offering, but maybe it's worth looking out for its possible reappearance.

Edit: I've now found this bet on their website (rather than on Oddschecker) and predictably the odds have been slashed from 25/1 to 10/1 ..... oh well, that was good while it lasted!

"Resigning" presumably requires him to put pen to paper - and doesn't cover impeachment or death (natural causes or assassination) - so that takes out a big slug of the ways he will leave the White House?

Barnesian

peter_from_putney said:

FPT

***** Betting Post *****

There are any number of mug punter bets on offer from the bookies right now appearing under the heading "Donald Trump Specials" on Oddschecker.

These include, by way of example, odds of 5/4 against him winning the 2020 POTUS Election (having held onto your money for 4 long years), 12/1 against Hillary Clinton being the Democratic candidate against him in 2020 or arguably worst of all, 13/8 against Russia being the first State Visit of his presidency .... there are many more equally rubbish bets on offer.

But one real plum of a bet imho which I noticed last night was a 25/1 offering from Betway against "Donald Trump resigning as President before completing a full term." There are any number of possible ways or reasons why such a scenario might come to pass and too many to go into here but I grabbed what I believed to be outstanding value, attempting to invest a tenner to win £250, but those nice folk at Betway would only allow me the curious stake of £4.39 to win £109.75. Still it's definitely a betting slip to put away under lock and key for the future.

Sadly, the bookie appears to have since taken down this offering, but maybe it's worth looking out for its possible reappearance.

Edit: I've now found this bet on their website (rather than on Oddschecker) and predictably the odds have been slashed from 25/1 to 10/1 ..... oh well, that was good while it lasted!

@peter_from_putney I owe you a drink for your tip of Nevada as firewall for Clinton. I got 16/1 on Ladbrokes and a decent stake. I promised I'd buy you two drinks if the LibDems also win Richmond Park so let's wait until after 1 Dec before I cough up. You live just up the road from me.

TheScreamingEagles

Apologies for going off topic, but this tweet, if true, just wow.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/797032148616310785

RobD and I discussed it last week, such a case would ultimately be referred to the ECJ

Sean_F

Theuniondivvie said:

Looks like the fabled Article 50 surge will be needed just to get UKIP back to the point of being a diddy, wee party with (almost) 1 mp.

It doesn't matter. If A 50 is invoked, UKIP have achieved their aim.

justin124

paulbarker said:

Again we see a weak Libdem performance as energies are diverted to Richmond Park. After that theres Xmas/New Year then Sleaford. We may not be able to judge Libdem performance properly till March ?

Sleaford by election is on December 8th!

paulyork64

MarqueeMark said:

peter_from_putney said:

FPT

***** Betting Post *****

There are any number of mug punter bets on offer from the bookies right now appearing under the heading "Donald Trump Specials" on Oddschecker.

These include, by way of example, odds of 5/4 against him winning the 2020 POTUS Election (having held onto your money for 4 long years), 12/1 against Hillary Clinton being the Democratic candidate against him in 2020 or arguably worst of all, 13/8 against Russia being the first State Visit of his presidency .... there are many more equally rubbish bets on offer.

But one real plum of a bet imho which I noticed last night was a 25/1 offering from Betway against "Donald Trump resigning as President before completing a full term." There are any number of possible ways or reasons why such a scenario might come to pass and too many to go into here but I grabbed what I believed to be outstanding value, attempting to invest a tenner to win £250, but those nice folk at Betway would only allow me the curious stake of £4.39 to win £109.75. Still it's definitely a betting slip to put away under lock and key for the future.

Sadly, the bookie appears to have since taken down this offering, but maybe it's worth looking out for its possible reappearance.

Edit: I've now found this bet on their website (rather than on Oddschecker) and predictably the odds have been slashed from 25/1 to 10/1 ..... oh well, that was good while it lasted!

"Resigning" presumably requires him to put pen to paper - and doesn't cover impeachment or death (natural causes or assassination) - so that takes out a big slug of the ways he will leave the White House?

didn't nixon resign before the impeachment ran its course?

Sean_F

MaxPB said:

glw said:

perdix said:

Telegraph still trumpeting (!) that Farage will be the go-between for Tories with Trump despite denial by No 10.

Maybe they mean that The Donald will appoint Farage and it's nothing to do with Downing Street?

Give Nige citizenship and make him US ambassador to the UK?

Maybe Trump would appoint him to SCOTUS.

NickPalmer

peter_from_putney said:

Mortimer said:

justin124 said:

TheKingofLangley said:

Interesting result from Eltham. Very much the kind of area where I think 'Blue Labour' would flourish but Corbyn's policies and priorities go down like a bowl of sick. Eltham has been Labour since 1997 IIRC correctly but Clive Efford will be more than a little worried seeing this I'd think

It was a split ward anyway, and a swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con is not too bad for Labour really despite losing the seat. Like the Wandsworth result , it fails to bear out the findings of the national polls.

This post brought to you by the Labour Small Straws Society....

Yes, the Wandsworth result in my neck of the woods, is truly a shocker for the Tories. So much for their maintaining the lowest Poll Tax in all the land!

Insofar as local elections tell us anything, I think this is showing polarisation. UKIP's vote is mostly sliding to the Tories (there is polling data that shows the Tories would gain much the most from a UKIP disappearance), and Labour is pulling in the Green votes and some UKIP, even in the seat Labour lost.

The future outlook may depend partly on whether UKIP revive when they eventually sort out their leadership and whether Brexit happens in a way that UKIP voters think satisfactory.

Sean_F

The main Opposition party going backwards, losing ten seats, is ominous news for them.

Pulpstar

SeanT said:

This is interesting.

Rod Crosby, late of this parish, has asked me to post his pre-Election spreadsheet. It's really quite impressive. You'll see he claims to have made £50,000 on Trump winning.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1V6KwNnbBO1q4dDwC1r0rujdcNByLHpVI1O2WKpzNfV8/edit#gid=0


You'll also see he's peeved about being excluded from PB, and he's told me he will never return.

Personally, I regret that. Rod said some dumb things, but he is also extremely acute on politics and betting, as this link shows.

But of course the site belongs to Mike, and the decision is his.

Ed Balls losing his seat predicted when Ed Miliband was on 40% midterm,
Brexit probably happening,
Obama called correctly in 08 and 12
& never wavering from President Trump.

A full House for Rod.

tlg86

SeanT said:

This is interesting.

Rod Crosby, late of this parish, has asked me to post his pre-Election spreadsheet. It's really quite impressive. You'll see he claims to have made £50,000 on Trump winning.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1V6KwNnbBO1q4dDwC1r0rujdcNByLHpVI1O2WKpzNfV8/edit#gid=0


You'll also see he's peeved about being excluded from PB, and he's told me he will never return.

Personally, I regret that. Rod said some dumb things, but he is also extremely acute on politics and betting, as this link shows.

But of course the site belongs to Mike, and the decision is his.

Yes, I remember Rod placing a lot of faith in the fact that after two terms in office it becomes difficult for a party to win again.

justin124

Mortimer said:

justin124 said:

Mortimer said:

justin124 said:

TheKingofLangley said:

Interesting result from Eltham. Very much the kind of area where I think 'Blue Labour' would flourish but Corbyn's policies and priorities go down like a bowl of sick. Eltham has been Labour since 1997 IIRC correctly but Clive Efford will be more than a little worried seeing this I'd think

It was a split ward anyway, and a swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con is not too bad for Labour really despite losing the seat. Like the Wandsworth result , it fails to bear out the findings of the national polls.

This post brought to you by the Labour Small Straws Society....

You appear wilfully ignorant of psephological facts you don't like. Labour has only won this ward once -ie 2014. It was a comfortable Tory seat in 2010 -2006 -and 2002. For Labour to lose by just 38 votes here is a good result for them.

The first sentence there shows a remarkable, nigh on spectacular, lack of self-awareness...

Not at all ! You appear to be assuming that I am a committed Labour voter when in fact I am nothing of the kind!You might ,however, care to explain why the Tories yesterday fell so far short in Eltham of their performance there in 2002 - a year after Blair's second landslide with Labour enjoying a huge lead in national polls.

Essexit

justin124 said:

paulbarker said:

Again we see a weak Libdem performance as energies are diverted to Richmond Park. After that theres Xmas/New Year then Sleaford. We may not be able to judge Libdem performance properly till March ?

Sleaford by election is on December 8th!

Is it sad that I'm excited for there to be a by-election on my birthday?

justin124

SouthamObserver said:

justin124 said:

TheKingofLangley said:

Interesting result from Eltham. Very much the kind of area where I think 'Blue Labour' would flourish but Corbyn's policies and priorities go down like a bowl of sick. Eltham has been Labour since 1997 IIRC correctly but Clive Efford will be more than a little worried seeing this I'd think

It was a split ward anyway, and a swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con is not too bad for Labour really despite losing the seat. Like the Wandsworth result , it fails to bear out the findings of the national polls.

Both seats inside the M25, so part of a different country. Any kind of swing from Labour to Tory in London is shocking.

But 2014 was the only year that Labour has ever won this ward!

Morris_Dancer

Mr. T, indeed, it's a shame Mr. Crosby couldn't come back.

NickPalmer

TheKingofLangley said:

Interesting result from Eltham. Very much the kind of area where I think 'Blue Labour' would flourish but Corbyn's policies and priorities go down like a bowl of sick.

Only problem with that analysis is that Labour's vote was up 9% in Eltham. FWIW I think this one should be credited to the Tories doing electorally well (by pulling back Kippers).

MarqueeMark

Pulpstar said:

SeanT said:

This is interesting.

Rod Crosby, late of this parish, has asked me to post his pre-Election spreadsheet. It's really quite impressive. You'll see he claims to have made £50,000 on Trump winning.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1V6KwNnbBO1q4dDwC1r0rujdcNByLHpVI1O2WKpzNfV8/edit#gid=0


You'll also see he's peeved about being excluded from PB, and he's told me he will never return.

Personally, I regret that. Rod said some dumb things, but he is also extremely acute on politics and betting, as this link shows.

But of course the site belongs to Mike, and the decision is his.

Ed Balls losing his seat predicted when Ed Miliband was on 40% midterm,
Brexit probably happening,
Obama called correctly in 08 and 12
& never wavering from President Trump.

A full House for Rod.

Arguably his biggest win was calling the Tories short of a majority in 2010

TheWhiteRabbit

tlg86 said:

SeanT said:

This is interesting.

Rod Crosby, late of this parish, has asked me to post his pre-Election spreadsheet. It's really quite impressive. You'll see he claims to have made £50,000 on Trump winning.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1V6KwNnbBO1q4dDwC1r0rujdcNByLHpVI1O2WKpzNfV8/edit#gid=0


You'll also see he's peeved about being excluded from PB, and he's told me he will never return.

Personally, I regret that. Rod said some dumb things, but he is also extremely acute on politics and betting, as this link shows.

But of course the site belongs to Mike, and the decision is his.

Yes, I remember Rod placing a lot of faith in the fact that after two terms in office it becomes difficult for a party to win again.

Since Buchanan for the Democrats.

williamglenn

TheScreamingEagles said:

Apologies for going off topic, but this tweet, if true, just wow.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/797032148616310785

RobD and I discussed it last week, such a case would ultimately be referred to the ECJ

I called it after the High Court ruling. If the government really wants to win the appeal it's the only argument they can use. Of course it also means the whole thing will be tied up in the courts for a lot longer so supports the theory that Theresa May is searching for the longest grass she can find.

not_on_fire

TheWhiteRabbit said:

tlg86 said:

SeanT said:

This is interesting.

Rod Crosby, late of this parish, has asked me to post his pre-Election spreadsheet. It's really quite impressive. You'll see he claims to have made £50,000 on Trump winning.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1V6KwNnbBO1q4dDwC1r0rujdcNByLHpVI1O2WKpzNfV8/edit#gid=0


You'll also see he's peeved about being excluded from PB, and he's told me he will never return.

Personally, I regret that. Rod said some dumb things, but he is also extremely acute on politics and betting, as this link shows.

But of course the site belongs to Mike, and the decision is his.

Yes, I remember Rod placing a lot of faith in the fact that after two terms in office it becomes difficult for a party to win again.

Since Buchanan for the Democrats.

The Dems certainly came a lot closer to winning a 3rd term than the Republicans did with McCain

TheWhiteRabbit

TheScreamingEagles said:

Apologies for going off topic, but this tweet, if true, just wow.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/797032148616310785

RobD and I discussed it last week, such a case would ultimately be referred to the ECJ

I agree *this* case would be referred to the ECJ. It is about the interpretation of A50, which is part of the treaties. What I cannot agree with is any suggestion that the question of whether A50 requires parliamentary approval would need to be referred.

Pulpstar

So long as Brexit is delayed till after July I'll be happy enough.

Get that catheter fitted Tim

SquareRoot

So Labour lose another seat even when Corbyn and his lot have been silenced by the American election.. There really is no hope

nunu

Sean_F said:

The main Opposition party going backwards, losing ten seats, is ominous news for them.

Labour = Democrats = French Socialists


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc7XIsC6KCg

FF43

TheScreamingEagles said:

Apologies for going off topic, but this tweet, if true, just wow.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/797032148616310785

RobD and I discussed it last week, such a case would ultimately be referred to the ECJ

That would be a course of action that a party who wants to waste a lot of time would take. The ECJ referral would unlikely be on accelerated timetable.

I don't know what the Supreme Court will find but I think a revocable Article 50 is doubtful on the logic. The rights that come from membership of the EU and which constitutionally are the competence of Parliament, not the government, can only be restored along with the revocation of Article 50 by Royal Prerogative. In other words the Government, not Parliament, would decide both when to remove the rights and when to restore them.

Tykejohnno

SeanT said:

This is interesting.

Rod Crosby, late of this parish, has asked me to post his pre-Election spreadsheet. It's really quite impressive. You'll see he claims to have made £50,000 on Trump winning.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1V6KwNnbBO1q4dDwC1r0rujdcNByLHpVI1O2WKpzNfV8/edit#gid=0


You'll also see he's peeved about being excluded from PB, and he's told me he will never return.

Personally, I regret that. Rod said some dumb things, but he is also extremely acute on politics and betting, as this link shows.

But of course the site belongs to Mike, and the decision is his.

Second that,for me one of the best on political betting tips.

Mortimer

justin124 said:

Mortimer said:

justin124 said:

Mortimer said:

justin124 said:

TheKingofLangley said:

Interesting result from Eltham. Very much the kind of area where I think 'Blue Labour' would flourish but Corbyn's policies and priorities go down like a bowl of sick. Eltham has been Labour since 1997 IIRC correctly but Clive Efford will be more than a little worried seeing this I'd think

It was a split ward anyway, and a swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con is not too bad for Labour really despite losing the seat. Like the Wandsworth result , it fails to bear out the findings of the national polls.

This post brought to you by the Labour Small Straws Society....

You appear wilfully ignorant of psephological facts you don't like. Labour has only won this ward once -ie 2014. It was a comfortable Tory seat in 2010 -2006 -and 2002. For Labour to lose by just 38 votes here is a good result for them.

The first sentence there shows a remarkable, nigh on spectacular, lack of self-awareness...

Not at all ! You appear to be assuming that I am a committed Labour voter when in fact I am nothing of the kind!You might ,however, care to explain why the Tories yesterday fell so far short in Eltham of their performance there in 2002 - a year after Blair's second landslide with Labour enjoying a huge lead in national polls.

I'm firmly of the opinion that parish council elections bear either little or no relation to national politics. They results in a tiny ward are well overanalysed - especially by those looking for short straws.

I've called the last 4 major elections (IndyRef, May 2015, Brexit and 2016 Potus) correctly - without one jot of reference to them. Oh, and I won this, too: http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/10/the-pb-ge15-competition-results-from-the-april-round/

My point about self-awareness was that you're always looking for the contrarian view in the tiniest of tiny election results whilst ignoring wider demographic trends, polling trends and general election results. If that isn't wilful ignorance I don't know what is....

Pulpstar

Where is May with "The PM and the pendulum" Norpoth model ?

HurstLlama

"Theresa May is searching for the longest grass she can find."

Talk about wishful thinking. Sheeesh.

williamglenn

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Apologies for going off topic, but this tweet, if true, just wow.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/797032148616310785

RobD and I discussed it last week, such a case would ultimately be referred to the ECJ

That would be a course of action that a party who wants to waste a lot of time would take. The ECJ referral would unlikely be on accelerated timetable.

I don't know what the Supreme Court will find but I think a revocable Article 50 is doubtful on the logic. The rights that come from membership of the EU and which constitutionally are the competence of Parliament, not the government, can only be restored along with the revocation of Article 50 by Royal Prerogative. In other words the Government, not Parliament, would decide both when to remove the rights and when to restore them.

Perhaps the government could argue that since an invocation of Article 50 by Royal Prerogative would be not be in accordance with the British constitution it would therefore be invalid in view of the ECJ and so would not inevitably lead to any removal of any rights of British citizens, and therefore would be constitutional.

Blue_rog

Pulpstar said:

SeanT said:

This is interesting.

Rod Crosby, late of this parish, has asked me to post his pre-Election spreadsheet. It's really quite impressive. You'll see he claims to have made £50,000 on Trump winning.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1V6KwNnbBO1q4dDwC1r0rujdcNByLHpVI1O2WKpzNfV8/edit#gid=0


You'll also see he's peeved about being excluded from PB, and he's told me he will never return.

Personally, I regret that. Rod said some dumb things, but he is also extremely acute on politics and betting, as this link shows.

But of course the site belongs to Mike, and the decision is his.

Ed Balls losing his seat predicted when Ed Miliband was on 40% midterm,
Brexit probably happening,
Obama called correctly in 08 and 12
& never wavering from President Trump.

A full House for Rod.

Ah, but did he predict Leicester winning the Premiership?

peter_from_putney

paulyork64 said:

peter_from_putney said:

FPT

***** Betting Post *****

There are any number of mug punter bets on offer from the bookies right now appearing under the heading "Donald Trump Specials" on Oddschecker.

These include, by way of example, odds of 5/4 against him winning the 2020 POTUS Election (having held onto your money for 4 long years), 12/1 against Hillary Clinton being the Democratic candidate against him in 2020 or arguably worst of all, 13/8 against Russia being the first State Visit of his presidency .... there are many more equally rubbish bets on offer.

But one real plum of a bet imho which I noticed last night was a 25/1 offering from Betway against "Donald Trump resigning as President before completing a full term." There are any number of possible ways or reasons why such a scenario might come to pass and too many to go into here but I grabbed what I believed to be outstanding value, attempting to invest a tenner to win £250, but those nice folk at Betway would only allow me the curious stake of £4.39 to win £109.75. Still it's definitely a betting slip to put away under lock and key for the future.

Sadly, the bookie appears to have since taken down this offering, but maybe it's worth looking out for its possible reappearance.

Edit: I've now found this bet on their website (rather than on Oddschecker) and predictably the odds have been slashed from 25/1 to 10/1 ..... oh well, that was good while it lasted!

Paddys have a first state visit market out but not on oddschecker. they had Russia at evens fav when I first saw it. now 6/4 alongside Mexico. I got on Canada at 5's.let me get £34 which is the paltry total I had in my account. cut to 7/2 now but I think anything 2/1 or above is value IMO. 4 of last 5 presidents visited canada first and trudeau has already invited him to visit as soon as he can. DYOR.

Good spot by you PY - I hope we'll see more suggestions of this ilk from you in future - the site is short of smart punters with betting ideas.

PlatoSaid

tlg86 said:

SeanT said:

This is interesting.

Rod Crosby, late of this parish, has asked me to post his pre-Election spreadsheet. It's really quite impressive. You'll see he claims to have made £50,000 on Trump winning.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1V6KwNnbBO1q4dDwC1r0rujdcNByLHpVI1O2WKpzNfV8/edit#gid=0


You'll also see he's peeved about being excluded from PB, and he's told me he will never return.

Personally, I regret that. Rod said some dumb things, but he is also extremely acute on politics and betting, as this link shows.

But of course the site belongs to Mike, and the decision is his.

Yes, I remember Rod placing a lot of faith in the fact that after two terms in office it becomes difficult for a party to win again.

Obama's vote also fell in 2012. That's very unusual, and possibly a unique event from stuff I've read.

Bush Snr was continuity Reagan because the man himself couldn't run. That goes someway to explain why Bush Snr only had a single term.

FF43

williamglenn said:

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Apologies for going off topic, but this tweet, if true, just wow.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/797032148616310785

RobD and I discussed it last week, such a case would ultimately be referred to the ECJ

That would be a course of action that a party who wants to waste a lot of time would take. The ECJ referral would unlikely be on accelerated timetable.

I don't know what the Supreme Court will find but I think a revocable Article 50 is doubtful on the logic. The rights that come from membership of the EU and which constitutionally are the competence of Parliament, not the government, can only be restored along with the revocation of Article 50 by Royal Prerogative. In other words the Government, not Parliament, would decide both when to remove the rights and when to restore them.

Perhaps the government could argue that since an invocation of Article 50 by Royal Prerogative would be not be in accordance with the British constitution it would therefore be invalid in view of the ECJ and so would not inevitably lead to any removal of any rights of British citizens, and therefore would be constitutional.

ARTICLE 50 of the TREATY OF UNION: Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements ...

You mean, the Government can tell the EU later on, sorry Brexit didn't meet our constitutional requirements after all and that withdrawal agreement we were working on is null and void?

Theuniondivvie

The West's real cultural arbiter has spoken.

'America has spoken. I really thought we were better than this. Guess not. Trump was the least qualified candidate ever nominated for the presidency by a major party. Come January, he will be the worst president in American history, and a dangerously unstable player on the world stage. Over the next four years our problems are going to get much, much worse. Winter is coming. I told you so.'

George R.R. Martin.

williamglenn

FF43 said:

williamglenn said:

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Apologies for going off topic, but this tweet, if true, just wow.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/797032148616310785

RobD and I discussed it last week, such a case would ultimately be referred to the ECJ

That would be a course of action that a party who wants to waste a lot of time would take. The ECJ referral would unlikely be on accelerated timetable.

I don't know what the Supreme Court will find but I think a revocable Article 50 is doubtful on the logic. The rights that come from membership of the EU and which constitutionally are the competence of Parliament, not the government, can only be restored along with the revocation of Article 50 by Royal Prerogative. In other words the Government, not Parliament, would decide both when to remove the rights and when to restore them.

Perhaps the government could argue that since an invocation of Article 50 by Royal Prerogative would be not be in accordance with the British constitution it would therefore be invalid in view of the ECJ and so would not inevitably lead to any removal of any rights of British citizens, and therefore would be constitutional.

ARTICLE 50 of the TREATY OF UNION: Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements ...

You mean, the Government can tell the EU later on, sorry Brexit didn't meet our constitutional requirements after all and that withdrawal agreement we were working on is null and void?

Exactly. Well not the Government per se, but Gina Miller or someone like her.

felix

justin124 said:

Mortimer said:

justin124 said:

Mortimer said:

justin124 said:

TheKingofLangley said:

Interesting result from Eltham. Very much the kind of area where I think 'Blue Labour' would flourish but Corbyn's policies and priorities go down like a bowl of sick. Eltham has been Labour since 1997 IIRC correctly but Clive Efford will be more than a little worried seeing this I'd think

It was a split ward anyway, and a swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con is not too bad for Labour really despite losing the seat. Like the Wandsworth result , it fails to bear out the findings of the national polls.

This post brought to you by the Labour Small Straws Society....

You appear wilfully ignorant of psephological facts you don't like. Labour has only won this ward once -ie 2014. It was a comfortable Tory seat in 2010 -2006 -and 2002. For Labour to lose by just 38 votes here is a good result for them.

The first sentence there shows a remarkable, nigh on spectacular, lack of self-awareness...

Not at all ! You appear to be assuming that I am a committed Labour voter when in fact I am nothing of the kind!You might ,however, care to explain why the Tories yesterday fell so far short in Eltham of their performance there in 2002 - a year after Blair's second landslide with Labour enjoying a huge lead in national polls.

I think the answer to that is probably demographics. The whole of SE London has been moving left for a number of years. Eltham is on the border before the slide into Bexley where things are rather different. Lewisham nearby had 2 Tory MPs in the 1980s - only lost narrowly in the 90s. Now they are rock solid Labour.

Edit: At the very least you are rock solid anti-Tory and post exclusively pro-Labour polling interpretations.

FF43

HurstLlama said:

"Theresa May is searching for the longest grass she can find."

Talk about wishful thinking. Sheeesh.

All thinking about Brexit is wishful. The most wishful of all is that of Theresa May ...

Essexit

paulyork64 said:

peter_from_putney said:

FPT

***** Betting Post *****

There are any number of mug punter bets on offer from the bookies right now appearing under the heading "Donald Trump Specials" on Oddschecker.

These include, by way of example, odds of 5/4 against him winning the 2020 POTUS Election (having held onto your money for 4 long years), 12/1 against Hillary Clinton being the Democratic candidate against him in 2020 or arguably worst of all, 13/8 against Russia being the first State Visit of his presidency .... there are many more equally rubbish bets on offer.

But one real plum of a bet imho which I noticed last night was a 25/1 offering from Betway against "Donald Trump resigning as President before completing a full term." There are any number of possible ways or reasons why such a scenario might come to pass and too many to go into here but I grabbed what I believed to be outstanding value, attempting to invest a tenner to win £250, but those nice folk at Betway would only allow me the curious stake of £4.39 to win £109.75. Still it's definitely a betting slip to put away under lock and key for the future.

Sadly, the bookie appears to have since taken down this offering, but maybe it's worth looking out for its possible reappearance.

Edit: I've now found this bet on their website (rather than on Oddschecker) and predictably the odds have been slashed from 25/1 to 10/1 ..... oh well, that was good while it lasted!

Paddys have a first state visit market out but not on oddschecker. they had Russia at evens fav when I first saw it. now 6/4 alongside Mexico. I got on Canada at 5's.let me get £34 which is the paltry total I had in my account. cut to 7/2 now but I think anything 2/1 or above is value IMO. 4 of last 5 presidents visited canada first and trudeau has already invited him to visit as soon as he can. DYOR.

I toyed with the idea of taking the bet on Canada, but the absence of England/Britain (Scotland was listed) was conspicuous - I wonder if PaddyPower know something we don't and/or have a specific definition of state visit.

PlatoSaid

Alan Cole
Overheard in DC: someone complaining that their firm had hired Clinton-connected people who were now worthless without their connections.

Imagine there's a lot of buyers remorse like this now

Theuniondivvie

SeanT said:

This is interesting.

Rod Crosby, late of this parish, has asked me to post his pre-Election spreadsheet. It's really quite impressive. You'll see he claims to have made £50,000 on Trump winning.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1V6KwNnbBO1q4dDwC1r0rujdcNByLHpVI1O2WKpzNfV8/edit#gid=0


You'll also see he's peeved about being excluded from PB, and he's told me he will never return.

Personally, I regret that. Rod said some dumb things, but he is also extremely acute on politics and betting, as this link shows.

But of course the site belongs to Mike, and the decision is his.

Nice that you're trying to get someone back on the site for once.

kle4

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Chelyabinsk said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Farron, whilst contemptible, is indicative that there are still some who want to deny, ignore and reverse the referendum result. Don't be complacent, fellow Brexiteers. We have not left yet.

Is it so unreasonable to ask for a second referendum before the 2-year period of Article 50 expires?

Yes, if the Article 50 notification is irrevocable- which it seems to be.

But is Article 50 really irrevocable?

Up to the European Courts, I would imagine, and we all know the EU is good at creating fudges - certainly both parties in the recent court case here seemed to believe it was. But the question will not arise - already probably, but definitely once we have formally triggered, it is not in the political interests of anyone in europe or here to try to stop it, even if it were a good idea.

DavidL

Mortimer said:

justin124 said:

Mortimer said:

justin124 said:

TheKingofLangley said:

Interesting result from Eltham. Very much the kind of area where I think 'Blue Labour' would flourish but Corbyn's policies and priorities go down like a bowl of sick. Eltham has been Labour since 1997 IIRC correctly but Clive Efford will be more than a little worried seeing this I'd think

It was a split ward anyway, and a swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con is not too bad for Labour really despite losing the seat. Like the Wandsworth result , it fails to bear out the findings of the national polls.

This post brought to you by the Labour Small Straws Society....

You appear wilfully ignorant of psephological facts you don't like. Labour has only won this ward once -ie 2014. It was a comfortable Tory seat in 2010 -2006 -and 2002. For Labour to lose by just 38 votes here is a good result for them.

The first sentence there shows a remarkable, nigh on spectacular, lack of self-awareness...

no, no, no. Oppositions always lose local authority seats to the government party as mid term approaches, didn't you know?

peter_from_putney

MarqueeMark said:

peter_from_putney said:

FPT

***** Betting Post *****

There are any number of mug punter bets on offer from the bookies right now appearing under the heading "Donald Trump Specials" on Oddschecker.

These include, by way of example, odds of 5/4 against him winning the 2020 POTUS Election (having held onto your money for 4 long years), 12/1 against Hillary Clinton being the Democratic candidate against him in 2020 or arguably worst of all, 13/8 against Russia being the first State Visit of his presidency .... there are many more equally rubbish bets on offer.

But one real plum of a bet imho which I noticed last night was a 25/1 offering from Betway against "Donald Trump resigning as President before completing a full term." There are any number of possible ways or reasons why such a scenario might come to pass and too many to go into here but I grabbed what I believed to be outstanding value, attempting to invest a tenner to win £250, but those nice folk at Betway would only allow me the curious stake of £4.39 to win £109.75. Still it's definitely a betting slip to put away under lock and key for the future.

Sadly, the bookie appears to have since taken down this offering, but maybe it's worth looking out for its possible reappearance.

Edit: I've now found this bet on their website (rather than on Oddschecker) and predictably the odds have been slashed from 25/1 to 10/1 ..... oh well, that was good while it lasted!

"Resigning" presumably requires him to put pen to paper - and doesn't cover impeachment or death (natural causes or assassination) - so that takes out a big slug of the ways he will leave the White House?

Impeachment might well lead to a "resignation" as might serious illness, leading to his death or not as the case may be, and I believe there's plenty of scope for this bet to deliver in many other areas, plus 25/1 are huge odds!

not_on_fire

PlatoSaid said:

Alan Cole
Overheard in DC: someone complaining that their firm had hired Clinton-connected people who were now worthless without their connections.

Imagine there's a lot of buyers remorse like this now

On the other hand, former contestants on The Apprentice are in hot demand.

DavidL

TheScreamingEagles said:

Apologies for going off topic, but this tweet, if true, just wow.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/797032148616310785

RobD and I discussed it last week, such a case would ultimately be referred to the ECJ

This was inevitable because the concession made put the Government on very weak ground. We also had the intervention of the person who drafted it saying it was revocable on or about the day of the hearing.
Once it is revocable the service of the notice does not of itself change domestic law and the government have a path to victory that was not there before the High Court.

weejonnie

Picture on Rods spreadsheet lead to:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/10/newsweek-recalls-125000-copies-of-its-souvenir-madam-president-i/

Dewy beats Truman.

paulyork64

Essexit said:

paulyork64 said:

peter_from_putney said:

FPT

***** Betting Post *****

There are any number of mug punter bets on offer from the bookies right now appearing under the heading "Donald Trump Specials" on Oddschecker.

These include, by way of example, odds of 5/4 against him winning the 2020 POTUS Election (having held onto your money for 4 long years), 12/1 against Hillary Clinton being the Democratic candidate against him in 2020 or arguably worst of all, 13/8 against Russia being the first State Visit of his presidency .... there are many more equally rubbish bets on offer.

But one real plum of a bet imho which I noticed last night was a 25/1 offering from Betway against "Donald Trump resigning as President before completing a full term." There are any number of possible ways or reasons why such a scenario might come to pass and too many to go into here but I grabbed what I believed to be outstanding value, attempting to invest a tenner to win £250, but those nice folk at Betway would only allow me the curious stake of £4.39 to win £109.75. Still it's definitely a betting slip to put away under lock and key for the future.

Sadly, the bookie appears to have since taken down this offering, but maybe it's worth looking out for its possible reappearance.

Edit: I've now found this bet on their website (rather than on Oddschecker) and predictably the odds have been slashed from 25/1 to 10/1 ..... oh well, that was good while it lasted!

Paddys have a first state visit market out but not on oddschecker. they had Russia at evens fav when I first saw it. now 6/4 alongside Mexico. I got on Canada at 5's.let me get £34 which is the paltry total I had in my account. cut to 7/2 now but I think anything 2/1 or above is value IMO. 4 of last 5 presidents visited canada first and trudeau has already invited him to visit as soon as he can. DYOR.

I toyed with the idea of taking the bet on Canada, but the absence of England/Britain (Scotland was listed) was conspicuous - I wonder if PaddyPower know something we don't and/or have a specific definition of state visit.

That crossed my mind too. If he goes somewhere not on the list and they claim that's the market settled I'm going to complain that they didn't have "others available on request" or words of that ilk in the small print at the bottom. even with those caveats I was happy with the price. I doubt they have any inside info but certainly Trump is a bit of a mould-breaker.

SimonStClare

PlatoSaid said:

Alan Cole
Overheard in DC: someone complaining that their firm had hired Clinton-connected people who were now worthless without their connections.

Imagine there's a lot of buyers remorse like this now

After 14 months of wall to wall coverage, it’s amazing how quickly Hillary Clinton has disappeared from the front pages and the political scene.

Mortimer

DavidL said:

Mortimer said:

justin124 said:

Mortimer said:

justin124 said:

TheKingofLangley said:

Interesting result from Eltham. Very much the kind of area where I think 'Blue Labour' would flourish but Corbyn's policies and priorities go down like a bowl of sick. Eltham has been Labour since 1997 IIRC correctly but Clive Efford will be more than a little worried seeing this I'd think

It was a split ward anyway, and a swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con is not too bad for Labour really despite losing the seat. Like the Wandsworth result , it fails to bear out the findings of the national polls.

This post brought to you by the Labour Small Straws Society....

You appear wilfully ignorant of psephological facts you don't like. Labour has only won this ward once -ie 2014. It was a comfortable Tory seat in 2010 -2006 -and 2002. For Labour to lose by just 38 votes here is a good result for them.

The first sentence there shows a remarkable, nigh on spectacular, lack of self-awareness...

no, no, no. Oppositions always lose local authority seats to the government party as mid term approaches, didn't you know?

Apologies sire - one of those golden rules that history stubbornly doesn't seem to fit with anymore....?

Mortimer

SimonStClare said:

PlatoSaid said:

Alan Cole
Overheard in DC: someone complaining that their firm had hired Clinton-connected people who were now worthless without their connections.

Imagine there's a lot of buyers remorse like this now

After 14 months of wall to wall coverage, it’s amazing how quickly Hillary Clinton has disappeared from the front pages and the political scene.

Reminds me of that TWW episode at the end of Season 7 - Senator Vinick tries to order a coffee after losing to Matt Santos; the barista doesn't know who he is and can't spell Arnie......

Stark_Dawning

felix said:

justin124 said:

Mortimer said:

justin124 said:

Mortimer said:

justin124 said:

TheKingofLangley said:

Interesting result from Eltham. Very much the kind of area where I think 'Blue Labour' would flourish but Corbyn's policies and priorities go down like a bowl of sick. Eltham has been Labour since 1997 IIRC correctly but Clive Efford will be more than a little worried seeing this I'd think

It was a split ward anyway, and a swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con is not too bad for Labour really despite losing the seat. Like the Wandsworth result , it fails to bear out the findings of the national polls.

This post brought to you by the Labour Small Straws Society....

You appear wilfully ignorant of psephological facts you don't like. Labour has only won this ward once -ie 2014. It was a comfortable Tory seat in 2010 -2006 -and 2002. For Labour to lose by just 38 votes here is a good result for them.

The first sentence there shows a remarkable, nigh on spectacular, lack of self-awareness...

Not at all ! You appear to be assuming that I am a committed Labour voter when in fact I am nothing of the kind!You might ,however, care to explain why the Tories yesterday fell so far short in Eltham of their performance there in 2002 - a year after Blair's second landslide with Labour enjoying a huge lead in national polls.

I think the answer to that is probably demographics. The whole of SE London has been moving left for a number of years. Eltham is on the border before the slide into Bexley where things are rather different. Lewisham nearby had 2 Tory MPs in the 1980s - only lost narrowly in the 90s. Now they are rock solid Labour.

Edit: At the very least you are rock solid anti-Tory and post exclusively pro-Labour polling interpretations.

To think, there was a time when Lewisham was all Tory. My dearly departed grandfather used to recall having to sing a song ('Vote, vote, vote for Mr Dawson!') as a schoolboy in honour of this chap here (a fascist sympathizer it woud seem):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_Dawson

williamglenn

SimonStClare said:

PlatoSaid said:

Alan Cole
Overheard in DC: someone complaining that their firm had hired Clinton-connected people who were now worthless without their connections.

Imagine there's a lot of buyers remorse like this now

After 14 months of wall to wall coverage, it’s amazing how quickly Hillary Clinton has disappeared from the front pages and the political scene.

This was a nice story - http://www.cbsnews.com/news/woman-goes-for-hike-in-chappaqua-runs-into-hillary-clinton/

MarkHopkins

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Apologies for going off topic, but this tweet, if true, just wow.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/797032148616310785

RobD and I discussed it last week, such a case would ultimately be referred to the ECJ

This was inevitable because the concession made put the Government on very weak ground. We also had the intervention of the person who drafted it saying it was revocable on or about the day of the hearing.
Once it is revocable the service of the notice does not of itself change domestic law and the government have a path to victory that was not there before the High Court.

Not a lawyer, but surely it's only revocable if the other states agree?

http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-European-union-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html

rottenborough

not_on_fire said:

PlatoSaid said:

Alan Cole
Overheard in DC: someone complaining that their firm had hired Clinton-connected people who were now worthless without their connections.

Imagine there's a lot of buyers remorse like this now

On the other hand, former contestants on The Apprentice are in hot demand.

Especially by National Inquirer.

DavidL

MarkHopkins said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Apologies for going off topic, but this tweet, if true, just wow.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/797032148616310785

RobD and I discussed it last week, such a case would ultimately be referred to the ECJ

This was inevitable because the concession made put the Government on very weak ground. We also had the intervention of the person who drafted it saying it was revocable on or about the day of the hearing.
Once it is revocable the service of the notice does not of itself change domestic law and the government have a path to victory that was not there before the High Court.

Not a lawyer, but surely it's own revocable if the other states agree?

http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-European-union-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html

Arguable either way I would say. If it is an "intention" to withdraw it may be implicit that that intention either has to be manifested in a withdrawal agreement or remain in place throughout the 2 year period in the absence of an agreement or an agreement to extend the period. The clause does not explicitly deal with a change of mind during the process. That in itself could be construed either way of course. It could be argued that the absence of a right to change your mind means it is irrevocable unless the other States choose to extend the period indefinitely.

The point for present proceedings is that if it is unclear what the effect of the service of the Notice is then it is unclear what the effect on domestic law is in which case the logic of the High Court's decision (which may in any event be challengeable on other grounds such as the argument that Parliament left the decision to the British people who have decided so a further vote is unnecessary) is at least undermined.

FF43

MarkHopkins said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Apologies for going off topic, but this tweet, if true, just wow.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/797032148616310785

RobD and I discussed it last week, such a case would ultimately be referred to the ECJ

This was inevitable because the concession made put the Government on very weak ground. We also had the intervention of the person who drafted it saying it was revocable on or about the day of the hearing.
Once it is revocable the service of the notice does not of itself change domestic law and the government have a path to victory that was not there before the High Court.

Not a lawyer, but surely it's only revocable if the other states agree?

http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-European-union-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html

I think so. Maybe more importantly from a legal point of view, it is only revocable if the UK government agree by royal prerogative. If the case turns on whether the government can use the royal prerogative to initiate an action that automatically removes individual rights, it is is illogical to say the government can optionally use a royal prerogative to countermand that action and in doing so restore those rights.

Scott_P

MarkHopkins said:

Not a lawyer, but surely it's only revocable if the other states agree?

Which is why the ECJ will need to rule...

Philip_Thompson

peter_from_putney said:

MarqueeMark said:

peter_from_putney said:

FPT

***** Betting Post *****

There are any number of mug punter bets on offer from the bookies right now appearing under the heading "Donald Trump Specials" on Oddschecker.

These include, by way of example, odds of 5/4 against him winning the 2020 POTUS Election (having held onto your money for 4 long years), 12/1 against Hillary Clinton being the Democratic candidate against him in 2020 or arguably worst of all, 13/8 against Russia being the first State Visit of his presidency .... there are many more equally rubbish bets on offer.

But one real plum of a bet imho which I noticed last night was a 25/1 offering from Betway against "Donald Trump resigning as President before completing a full term." There are any number of possible ways or reasons why such a scenario might come to pass and too many to go into here but I grabbed what I believed to be outstanding value, attempting to invest a tenner to win £250, but those nice folk at Betway would only allow me the curious stake of £4.39 to win £109.75. Still it's definitely a betting slip to put away under lock and key for the future.

Sadly, the bookie appears to have since taken down this offering, but maybe it's worth looking out for its possible reappearance.

Edit: I've now found this bet on their website (rather than on Oddschecker) and predictably the odds have been slashed from 25/1 to 10/1 ..... oh well, that was good while it lasted!

"Resigning" presumably requires him to put pen to paper - and doesn't cover impeachment or death (natural causes or assassination) - so that takes out a big slug of the ways he will leave the White House?

Impeachment might well lead to a "resignation" as might serious illness, leading to his death or not as the case may be, and I believe there's plenty of scope for this bet to deliver in many other areas, plus 25/1 are huge odds!

Only huge odds if the odds of it happening is greater than 4%. If it is 4% or less then it is poor odds.

rottenborough

The inquest begins:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/hillary-clinton-aides-loss-blame-231215

Seems Bill Clinton warned them that they need to do more with white working class in places like W Virginia and got ignored.

justin124

Mortimer said:

justin124 said:

Mortimer said:

justin124 said:

Mortimer said:

justin124 said:

TheKingofLangley said:

Interesting result from Eltham. Very much the kind of area where I think 'Blue Labour' would flourish but Corbyn's policies and priorities go down like a bowl of sick. Eltham has been Labour since 1997 IIRC correctly but Clive Efford will be more than a little worried seeing this I'd think

It was a split ward anyway, and a swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con is not too bad for Labour really despite losing the seat. Like the Wandsworth result , it fails to bear out the findings of the national polls.

This post brought to you by the Labour Small Straws Society....

.

The first sentence there shows a remarkable, nigh on spectacular, lack of self-awareness...

Not at all ! You appear to be assuming that I am a committed Labour voter when in fact I am nothing of the kind!You might ,however, care to explain why the Tories yesterday fell so far short in Eltham of their performance there in 2002 - a year after Blair's second landslide with Labour enjoying a huge lead in national polls.

I'm firmly of the opinion that parish council elections bear either little or no relation to national politics. They results in a tiny ward are well overanalysed - especially by those looking for short straws.

I've called the last 4 major elections (IndyRef, May 2015, Brexit and 2016 Potus) correctly - without one jot of reference to them. Oh, and I won this, too: http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/10/the-pb-ge15-competition-results-from-the-april-round/

My point about self-awareness was that you're always looking for the contrarian view in the tiniest of tiny election results whilst ignoring wider demographic trends, polling trends and general election results. If that isn't wilful ignorance I don't know what is....

I agree with you regarding parish council elections - which in my view should not really be fought on the basis of party political labels. Eltham ,however, relates to a London Borough election which is a different matter entirely, and I believe it to be entirely reasonable - and objective - to point out that the result there - and in Wandsworth - does not bear out recent national polling data.
I happen to be blessed with a very good memory , and am aware of historical polling data stretching back decades which sometimes makes it possible for me to cite precedents which others are unaware of or have long forgotten. I actually have nothing but contempt for 'spin' - from wherever it comes - and I derive some comfort from evidence that Corbyn and May appear to be at least united in rejecting this ,whatever else might divide them.

rottenborough

Philip_Thompson said:

peter_from_putney said:

MarqueeMark said:

peter_from_putney said:

FPT

***** Betting Post *****

There are any number of mug punter bets on offer from the bookies right now appearing under the heading "Donald Trump Specials" on Oddschecker.

These include, by way of example, odds of 5/4 against him winning the 2020 POTUS Election (having held onto your money for 4 long years), 12/1 against Hillary Clinton being the Democratic candidate against him in 2020 or arguably worst of all, 13/8 against Russia being the first State Visit of his presidency .... there are many more equally rubbish bets on offer.

But one real plum of a bet imho which I noticed last night was a 25/1 offering from Betway against "Donald Trump resigning as President before completing a full term." There are any number of possible ways or reasons why such a scenario might come to pass and too many to go into here but I grabbed what I believed to be outstanding value, attempting to invest a tenner to win £250, but those nice folk at Betway would only allow me the curious stake of £4.39 to win £109.75. Still it's definitely a betting slip to put away under lock and key for the future.

Sadly, the bookie appears to have since taken down this offering, but maybe it's worth looking out for its possible reappearance.

Edit: I've now found this bet on their website (rather than on Oddschecker) and predictably the odds have been slashed from 25/1 to 10/1 ..... oh well, that was good while it lasted!

"Resigning" presumably requires him to put pen to paper - and doesn't cover impeachment or death (natural causes or assassination) - so that takes out a big slug of the ways he will leave the White House?

Impeachment might well lead to a "resignation" as might serious illness, leading to his death or not as the case may be, and I believe there's plenty of scope for this bet to deliver in many other areas, plus 25/1 are huge odds!

Only huge odds if the odds of it happening is greater than 4%. If it is 4% or less then it is poor odds.

1/3 roughly of 70 year old men, make 80 apparently. So long way to go from 30% to 4% based on impeachment or getting bored.

In my local last night the latter (getting bored) seemed to be the main topic of discussion for Trump. The collective wisdom was that compared to business and building golf courses, politics will seem dull and slow moving.

MaxPB

rottenborough said:

The inquest begins:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/hillary-clinton-aides-loss-blame-231215

Seems Bill Clinton warned them that they need to do more with white working class in places like W Virginia and got ignored.

That Dem party is dead, it is now the party of ultra liberals, blacks and Hispanics.

not_on_fire

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

The inquest begins:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/hillary-clinton-aides-loss-blame-231215

Seems Bill Clinton warned them that they need to do more with white working class in places like W Virginia and got ignored.

That Dem party is dead, it is now the party of ultra liberals, blacks and Hispanics.

There must be a risk of the Dems "doing a UK Labour" and becoming a party that can only win in CA and the north-east. As far as I can tell Elizabeth Warren is Jeremy Corbyn in a skirt.

RobD

On topic - the surge continues!

Off topic, is @Morris_Dancer around? I thought he'd be interest to know that one of the NPC's in the upcoming Mass Effect game is going to be called PB! (well, Peebee)

rottenborough

Just increased my bet on Sarkozy for FR president. Next interesting election. Spring 2017.

MaxPB

not_on_fire said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

The inquest begins:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/hillary-clinton-aides-loss-blame-231215

Seems Bill Clinton warned them that they need to do more with white working class in places like W Virginia and got ignored.

That Dem party is dead, it is now the party of ultra liberals, blacks and Hispanics.

There must be a risk of the Dems "doing a UK Labour". As far as I can tell Elizabeth Warren is Jeremy Corbyn in a skirt.

Yes, she's just made a stupid statement on Trump's victory as well. If the Dems pick her instead of their Dan Jarvis then they are finished for 2020 IMO.