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Today’s YouGov is now out and completes the polling picture for the weekend. The shares were CON 30, LAB 41, LD 10, UKIP 13. Labour’s 41% is the highest for eight weeks.
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Hmmm, out of four polls we get a thread leader using the one with Labour the highest of the four, LibDems highest and UKIP lowest.
[checks the calibration on my pocket coincidenceometer]
Not great polls anyway - although IMHO, process issues/attacks on union leader influence is more of a "rally the troops" topic than something that gets much wider traction
It looks like the Tory attack on the unions backfired badly as predicted by yours truly.
Considering how out of touch Cameron is in social areas such as attitudes to trade unionism it's surprising he should choose as his adviser an Australian who doesn't even live here and whose ideas and crude right-wingery seem firmly set in another country if not another century
Don't underestimate the rally the troops effect. It really is important for all parties to get their membership and activists fired up and the trade union question is one which will appeal.
Next week the parliamentary recess starts and politics will go on the back-burner until conference season.
It looks like the Tory strategy for 2015 will be to peg to the right in the hope that enough current UKIPers can be frightened into "returning home". It's probably the best chance the Tories have of winning most seats, but it is very high risk: it will mean fighting on UKIP territory and it will encourage Labour tactical votes for the LDs in areas where they have the best chance of beating the Tories (except in Scotland, where the SNP will probably benefit most).
Equally, as EiT said, it has created an opportunity for EdM. But I suspect that EdM won't actually do anything with it - it'll drift over summer and lose momentum
"Rallying the troops is vital and the Crosby strategy is clearly to focus the Tory message on a few key messages that all Tory MPs can unite around"
Even by the rather arcane values that we attach to the Tories using an entire PMQ's to bash the unions in this day and age was bizarre in the extreme not to mention passe
On Crosby, it's worth noting that he has enjoyed his best successes in Australia and London, where there are forms of preferential voting where voters get a second choice. FPTP is very, very different, of course. In 2015 it's UKIP or the Tories, not both. It could have been otherwise, but the Toriesw campaigned against AV. The police commissioner ballots may indicate what could have happened if there had been a vote to change.
As for the poll glut these second tier polls create more heat than light and it's important that PBers keep their eye on the gold standard ICM's of the next several months, yet to report recently, and of course the fortnightly publication, exclusive to PB, of the platinum standard ARSE due out tomorrow.
For all you massively disappointed Tories out there, Mike has given you a nice, big clue in that sentence. I confidently predict that you will, collectively, be too daft to take the hint. I really do feel sorry for the few bright ones out there.
The regular YouGov internals also make grim reading for the coalition, with approval (net) (-7), Cameron (-6) Clegg (-2), working well together (-6) all down. People have also become markedly more negative (-10) about their financial situation in the last week - did I miss an economic crisis - or might this be a panel effect?
Mixed news for Ed, with his net "weak leader of the Labour Party" still a dreadful +34 (-3), and a jump in "too close to the Unions" to 37 (+8) - in the space of a week. That said, there is strong ( net, +52) support for his "opt in" move, and while opinion splits evenly on the impact it will have on Union influence within Labour (reduce 35, no diff 33, don't know 33), there is support (44) for him attempting to reduce Labours links with the Unions. While this move makes 21% think more positively about Ed, to 41% it makes no difference as they had a negative view anyway.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/zinooici1f/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-120713.pdf
But please, by all means, ignore them if you like.
For all their delightful characteristics, great strategic thinking is not one of their prime ones.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-23304181
On the royal baby, the overwhelming majority (82) have no preference between a boy and a girl, with only UKIP voting boy (11:6) and the highest (10) opposition to the end of primogeniture....
James (19) and George (13) top the boys names, while Victoria (12) and Diana (11) top the girls.
Either our panel were being ironic in voting Oliver the third most popular boy's name, the country has become covertly republican....or teaching of history ain't what it used to be....
Maybe they should fire their experienced old politics hands and replace them with people with regular advertising experience, who are used to competing against multiple brands in a competitive marketplace.
All PPC's now have to be tested by the party director Lisa Duffy, and her team of 3 or 4 specialist assistants. Emails of all vacancies to be a PPC anywhere in the country are sent to all approved candidates in good time to attend the relevant hustings. Her aim is to have approved PPCs in place for 75% of the constituencies by this Christmas, 18 months before the GE.
That this will improve the quality all candidates matters less than the fact that this sort of improvement in in our organisation will attract one or two significant donors. And if any are prepared to put in time as well as money, UKIP will look very different in 2015.
Can Crosby's dog-whistles really mask Cameron's completely implausible approach to the EU?
You know this fine well, so please try a better line of attack.
By the way, I do not recognise this term "Coalitionistas". I see plenty of Tories about, and occasionally spy a vagrant lesser-spotted Lib Dem, but flocks of "Coalitionistas" seem to be pretty much non existent.
Compare and contrast with the successful centre-right coalition government in Sweden. But the key difference there is that the 4 coalition partners calmly formed their alliance long before polling day, not in panic afterwards.
Like I say I think it's more of a generational thing. Sometimes a set of assumptions gets deeply embedded in an organization, and when the world changes around them it can be surprisingly hard to shift.
Let's see where the trend takes Labour - its 8ish now and that's what I'm paying attention to.
Is there any news about the hot water MP or has he smothered it with an injunction?!
"Interesting YouGov supplementaries on MPs second jobs, with net +41 opposition, though a lower, net +31 support for a ban."
A big opportunity for Ed. If the public begrudge their MP's £77,000 a year second jobs is likely to really get them going.
Who'd have thought Ed could become the great reformer?
I must say that I'm very surprised that the Con figure is quite so low, and so consistently low as well.
Regardless of the stories, particularly about future cuts, the public will believe that Labour will carry out less painfully. They know Labour might have to do it for budgetary reasons. They also know Tories would love to do it anyway for ideological reasons.
Further I don't care whether you "recognise" the term Coalitionista or not. You may be campaigning for a sovereign state but you're not one yourself !!
Con 28.25 (+1.00)
Lab 37.75 (+1.00)
LD 8.25 (-1.25)
Ukip 17.5 (-0.50)
I'm not surprised Sir Bruce has come to this figure - I've been following his statements quite closely and he's not been happy for a long while. Ditto Sir Brian Jarman who is very critical http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/heal-our-hospitals/10178296/13000-died-needlessly-at-14-worst-NHS-trusts.html
" The NHS’s medical director will spell out the failings of 14 trusts in England, which between them have been responsible for up to 13,000 “excess deaths” since 2005.
Prof Sir Bruce Keogh will describe how each hospital let its patients down badly through poor care, medical errors and failures of management, and will show that the scandal of Stafford Hospital, where up to 1,200 patients died needlessly, was not a one-off..."
Separate research showed that the hospitals were paying out large amounts in compensation for failures and errors. The negligence bills were three times those of the average NHS trust.
Between them, the 14 hospitals have paid £234 million in negligence settlements in the past three years. Many of the cases will date back far longer, as the legal battles often take several years. Tameside and East Lancashire Hospitals NHS Trust have paid out £30 million each to victims of poor care since 2009.
United Lincolnshire Hospitals Trust paid out £28 million and Basildon and Thurrock University Hospitals £19 million.
And I am sure that I am not unusual in not recognising the term "Coalitionistas". It is a clear example of wishful thinking that just does not exist in the real world. But feel free to carry on deluding yourself, for you are deluding nobody else.
"Rallying the troops is vital and the Crosby strategy is clearly to focus the Tory message on a few key messages that all Tory MPs can unite around. What it also does, though, is remind LD and Labour inclined voters why they dislike the Tories so much. "
True .
Attacking the Unions does not resonate like and it did, you would have to be about 50, to remember when they had any real power to change events.
Crosby is talking to those who should be natural conservative voters of that older age group, and will most likely return at a GE.
He is certainly not talking to the people who have had no wage increase for many a year and no prospect of one.These are not the squeezed middle but the pissed of workers and people looking for work, from all walks of life, who feel no one speaks for them.
bit.ly/18VsOQx YouGov poll (page 5) voters by 62 % to 10 % support Miliband union reforms, but no change to his personal ratings
I think his other problem is that his party aren't giving him a lot of room to maneuver.
The better UKIP do in the polls, the more restless his backbenchers get.
The more restless his backbenchers get, the more right-wing red meat he has to throw out to calm them down.
The more right-wing red meat he has to throw out to calm them down, the more salient UKIP's issues become to the voters.
And the more salient UKIP's issues become to the voters, the better UKIP do in the polls...
However if - and it is supposition - a proportion of the private educated kids have gone on holiday with their parents it may impact the polling results. I would assume that this group would disproportionately support the Tories
That may or not be a factor now - but its a widely accepted one here.
A spokesman said: “The claim that Labour ignored problems at these hospitals is disgraceful and not supported by a shred of evidence. In fact, the truth is the precise opposite.”
He said Mr Burnham had ordered his own review of five of the hospitals covered by Sir Bruce’s report — Basildon and Thurrock, Medway, Northern Lincolnshire and Goole, Sherwood Forest and Tameside – and claimed its warnings had been “clearly ignored” by the current government “as evidence shows all five hospitals have deteriorated sharply on the Coalition’s watch”.
On the NHS - I was out with some of my usually righter-winger friends the other day, and the NHS 'scandal' came up as a topic (not from me). The consensus seemed to be that many of the NHS's problems are associated with Blairite/New Labour policies like targets, unwieldy/bloated management and 'uncompetitive' privatisation. All of which they think the Tories will do and worse. So I'd go for a cross party approach on this or stfu.
Former health sec Andy Burnham will be on #Murnaghan later talking about secret govt files showing he overruled officials on Mid Staffs
"Widely acceped" by PBTories !
THIRTEEN THOUSAND DEATHS - and its the NHS Med Dir saying it, not some CCHQ press officer.
That'll be a first!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jul/13/alex-salmond-white-paper-william-mcilvanney
Simple question: how many Tory MP's have private health cover ?
It's appalling what happened - and is hopefully no longer lurking in the shadows. MidStaffs wasn't a one off, its very clear. At any one time some rogue unit will be screwing up - that's life but the scale of this and the culture it stemmed from are criminal.
I sincerely hope the culprits are prosecuted where laws have been broken, and sacked where found to be negligent.
terminological inexactitude tim. I seem to recall people saying that YOU GOV polling changed at the weekend not ALL polling.
Climate change sceptic Mr Hayes had asked the head of power giants E.on to warn of blackouts unless the Coalition watered down its green crusade and made a U-turn on the closure of coal-fired generators."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2362772/Climate-change-sceptic-energy-minister-fired-security-asking-energy-companies-warn-blackouts-unless-coalition-watered-green-crusade.html#ixzz2Z0MRzt6B
David Milband on Marr - with Marr
"THOUSANDS of patients are dying unnecessarily because of the failure of Britain’s hospitals to provide safe out-of-hours care. Death rates are rising by up to 27% at the weekend in some hospitals. The figures show that 129 of the 146 trusts had higher death rates at weekends in 2011-12, the latest year for which there is available data for every trust. Twelve of the trusts had unexpectedly high weekend death rates, according to Dr Foster Intelligence, the company that analysed the data.
These included Hillingdon Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, which showed a 27% leap in death rates at the weekend compared with weekdays; the Royal Cornwall Hospitals NHS Trust, which had a 25% jump; Buckinghamshire Healthcare NHS Trust, which recorded a 16% rise; and Mid Yorkshire Hospitals NHS Trust which showed an increase of 11%...
In an interview with The Sunday Times, Sir Bruce Keogh, medical director of the NHS, said the health service “lacks compassion towards patients” by shutting down over the weekend. He believed a seven- day NHS was a “necessity”. Keogh said routine treatment should be available at the weekend. He also believes that if consultants were on the wards seven days a week, savings would be made because they could take decisions about the correct treatment for patients and discharge those who were ready to leave. http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/Health/article1287668.ece
Obviously, you are not going to understand that the report has not actually been published and that parts of it have been leaked to newspapers which are Tory-friendly and long-standing critics of the NHS, but what we may find when the report does come out is that it is a little more nuanced than the Mail, the Times and the Telegraph are reporting.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jul/14/primary-school-admissions-code-change-confusion?CMP=twt_gu
On that note off to prep to go play a 'Kubb' tournament (with picnic and Pimms, obv).
If you've never seen/played it highly recommended for friend and family sunshine fun.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3ELBTr8jI8
Interesting you should hint that newspapers are biased when it suits you but you ignore it when it supports your case.. tsk..
Are you fretting Surby? I would be if I were Andy Burnham and Labour - it was on their watch.
"Experts will study Keogh’s report closely for any evidence that hospitals tried to massage their mortality figures by reclassifying patients as undergoing “palliative care” rather than being treated for a specific illness.
The statistics would then record that the patient was considered certain to die and simply being made comfortable. As a result, the death would not affect the hospital’s mortality figures for standard medical procedures.
One critic said that some hospitals on occasions appeared “to turn into hospices overnight” as patients were put into the palliative category."
"Pointing out that the Tory ranks lack intellectual rigour is a statement of the obvious. We just do not see similar masses of dafties in the other parties, SLAB excepted. I note for example that one tim outwits about twenty dafties on here, 7 days a week, 52 weeks a year."
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Using "tim" as your yardstick for intellectual rigour is one of the funniest posts any SNPer has ever composed on PB and boy there have been some side splitting candidates.
I consider you have made my case comprehensively and I'll rest there m'lud.
Chortles with abandon !!
But I did notice that something has changed markedly. 9/10 of 2010 Labour voters now say that they will vote Labour whereas for the Tories the figure is 7/10. Exactly the opposite prior to Budget 2012 ! 30% of 2010 LD voters will now vote Labour against 37% staying with the Liberals. 20% of 2010 Tories are now kippers. If I took the PBTory sub-sample that figure is probably an underestimate !
Your moral high-chair is a lofty place. I'm looking forward to you moaning again about going off-topic if a few of us discuss the occasional film or tv show. You never talk about cricket of course ;^ )
And this is a question for [the likes of] Professor Nabavi [sp?], JJ (or, ideally, Mrs JJ), EiT or Dr Plank:
On another web-site I am having great fun reading the battles between Red Trousers and the-late-and-lamented HurstLlama (once of this parish). Being an informed software-engineer/analyst the following comment by RT got me thinking.... So - and to keep it simple - are photons faster than electrons? If so, how (and why) does e=mc^2 hold...?
"To be fair, the term "coalitionista" did exist until the HoL reform bill was scuppered by those intelligent Tories. The boundary review went with it. The rest is history ! "
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To be accurate I've been using the term "Coalitionista" since for the formation of the government in 2010.
Not in the best interests of the patients?
" SECRET government files have revealed how senior civil servants tried to cover up the Mid Staffordshire hospital scandal. Documents stored in the Department of Health show officials sought to discourage ministers from launching a public inquiry into appalling standards at the NHS trust, which resulted in the unnecessary deaths of almost 1,200 patients.
“We do not feel a full public inquiry would be in the interests of patients and the public,” one document said. A senior government lawyer went on to warn that even a limited inquiry would carry “significant risks”, adding that the government had no legal obligation to take further action.
“The benefits of embarking on any kind of formal inquiry (public or private) are outweighed by the potential consequences,” officials said..."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-5zEb1oS9A
As I have said previously, I no problem in people discussing films, TV programmes, cricket or anything else on here. Whole threads being taken over by long posts and links, though, do get a little boring. But each to his/her own.
Nonetheless we are into summer polling and most of the country is interested in other things like BBQ's and catching rays rather than political infighting.
"More British soldiers and veterans took their own lives in 2012 than died fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan over the same period.
The British government, unlike its American counterpart, does not record the suicide rate among ex-soldiers.
But Panorama has independently established that at least 29 veterans took their own lives in 2012."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23259865?ocid=socialflow_facebook_bbcnews
Well, If you can point me to comments you have made (where you have added a link) that adds a rider that although the link supports your case, of course it might be biased in favour of what you are commenting about, I will apologise profusely.
The big news is that ED WILL NEVER BE PRIME MINISTER!
(Or I'm I mistaking it with last months poll?)
I would assume if you are having to be more aggressive on the re-weighting there will be a greater margin of error?
So a signal transmitted by electrons (for want of a better phrase which eludes me), is on the order of the speed of light ~50-90% (I'm guessing it is not 100% due to imperfections in the conductor you are using, or some other fancy physics). So by moving to photons, you only gain by a factor of two -- hardly groundbreaking.
The monster won't go away because you don't look at it.
RT @PeterWatt123: The left is going to have to find a much better response to the series of NHS scandals than 'I love the NHS'
St Mark's told Jarman it offers only part-time provision for children in Eibhlís's position in their first term: three hours a day in the morning or afternoon, switching halfway through the term.
When Jarman said this was an impossible arrangement, given her work commitments, she was advised to look for another school.
Now, I am sure there is more to the story than is reported, but it appears that she wanted special treatment. When this was refused she intends to sue. A sense of entitlement?
*National Death Service.
I do however wish that the NHS was renamed the English HS and the Scottish HS and the Welsh HS etc. That is the reality.
I therefore rest my case m'lud
Time to get sorted before the cricket..