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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The government should resign if the Courts prevent it from inv

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  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    Can't see why May doesnt just go for a General Election now. Get it over and done with.

    chaos
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    edited November 2016

    Mike has posted on Twitter that the Govt majority will be down to 8, so hopefully he'll be offering odds-against on the Tories!
    Just think...if Labour had stood down to help the LD's in Zak's seat, they could expect a return of the favour here. It's not going to happen though.

    I think if the LD's manage to claim second spot in this seat....that could potentially be a very damaging blow to Jezza the Duffer.....
  • That's because the market is settled differently, as I profitably pointed out a few days back.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,406

    We've got a by election in Sleaford & North Hykeham.

    Well, I didn't expect that.

    I must say: from what we've heard so far, good on him.

    Given the way politics has been over the last two years, Trump must be a shoo-in. Not because of any bogus Brexit effect, but because we must start to expect the unexpected ...
  • Not as bad as when I re-tipped/backed James Purnell as next Labour leader one morning, and within an hour he announced his intention to stand down as an MP.
    You do often appear a tad unlucky with threads you written the night before. :lol:
  • tyson said:


    You cannot argue with that logic...or maybe you can, but I cannot see it....
    I agree entirely with the logic of his argument but not the decision which I think is precipitous. If May now decides that she will put Article 50 to Parliament for a vote then he will look a bit daft.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,752
    tyson said:


    You cannot argue with that logic...or maybe you can, but I cannot see it....
    The unsquareable circle is that most MPs are at odds with the referendum victors on this.

    I happen to think that they will subordinate their own feelings, at least in this instance, to vote through the A50 bill.

    There is a complicated spreadsheet to be created showing the relationship between party/remain//leave constituencies showing the potential outcome at a GE for, say, a Remain Cons MP trying to vote down Brexit in a Remain constituency (cf Ken Clarke where we'll never know).
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Idiotic of Mook to goad white Americans by gloating about their demographic dispossession.
    but fine to call mexicans rapist and murders?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,843
    tyson said:

    Just think...if Labour had stood down to help the LD's in Zak's seat, they could expect a return of the favour here. It's not going to happen though.

    I think if the LD's manage to claim second spot in this seat....that could potentially be a very damaging blow to Jezza the Duffer.....
    After asking Labour not to run in Richmond i wonder whether the Lib Dems will stand down here and give Labour a free run? Methinks not.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,034

    General Election 2015: Sleaford and North Hykeham
    Conservative Stephen Phillips 34,805 56.2 +4.6
    Labour Jason Pandya-Wood 10,690 17.3 +0.4
    UKIP Steven Hopkins 9,716 15.7 +12.1
    Liberal Democrat Matthew Holden 3,500 5.7 -12.5
    Lincolnshire Independents Marianne Overton 3,233 5.2 -1.2
    Majority 24,115 38.9
    Why did he resign?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,378
    I've no problems with the Judges making legal points. My argument is that the case was brought in an effort to stop any Brexit. As Blair announced, the Elite see this as a prolonged guerrilla war.

    Two ways ...

    (1) Delay and amend to death any bill, then announce it's still not good enough for us to vote Yes. Suggest more discussions. Rewind again. Hope the public gradually calm down and move onto other things. Let the indecision do its work on the economy, and there's bound to be International crises to worry about eventually.

    Bring back the project Fear. Give the EU time to make a few tiny concessions, big them up and allow the suggestion to grow that the public have changed their mind. At worst ... a new referendum.

    (2) If worst comes to worst, vote Yes, but only after neutralising any bargaining position. Accept free movement, carry on paying, and have associate membership with a small penalty to retain free market. The EU will throw in a bonus or two on specific industries. What's the problem, leavers? We've left. In name. at least.
  • That's because the market is settled differently, as I profitably pointed out a few days back.
    Yes you did.
  • Mr. K, the author is an exciting (and handsome) young fellow who's also got a short story in a fantasy anthology due out in January, featuring other stories by writers such as the award-winning Adrian Tchaikovsky.

    So, he must be good.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,965

    Where are those PBers who assured me that Theresa May had a rock solid majority in Parliament because of the DUP, Sinn Fein Abstentions etc

    The issue isn't getting Article 50 through the Commons. It's

    a) Not being amended to death in the Commons
    b) The Lords
  • So is Stephen Phillips going to restand? It doesn't look like it from his statement. And if not, who is he going to support in the by-election, given that he seems to be unable to support the government any more in Parliament?
  • That Lincolnshire Independent has kept her deposit at two successive general elections. I wonder what her stance on Brexit is?

    More point, does she want Lincolnshire to stay in the EU after Lincolnshirexit?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,843

    So is Stephen Phillips going to restand? It doesn't look like it from his statement. And if not, who is he going to support in the by-election, given that he seems to be unable to support the government any more in Parliament?

    Probably no one.
  • MaxPB said:

    Looks like a simple Con hold tbh.

    It'll be a battle of the Brexits, though. How much of the Tory vote will a hard line UKIP Brexiteer take?

  • Essexit said:

    The issue isn't getting Article 50 through the Commons. It's

    a) Not being amended to death in the Commons
    b) The Lords
    The Leader of the Labour Peers has said they will not block Brexit.
  • Mr. CD13, quite.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,378
    Mr Intokyo,

    I saw quite a few Lincolnshire flags on my last visit a week or so ago. I can't say I'd ever noticed any before.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,843

    It'll be a battle of the Brexits, though. How much of the Tory vote will a hard line UKIP Brexiteer take?

    Will UKIP even run?
  • NEW THREAD

  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    The fight in Sleaford and North Hykeham is a contest about who finishes second, Labour or UKIP

    Candidate selection will be interesting: No more public school poshos hopefully...... ;)
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    CD13 said:

    Mr Intokyo,

    I saw quite a few Lincolnshire flags on my last visit a week or so ago. I can't say I'd ever noticed any before.

    I've never quite seen the point of Lincolnshire. Has it ever produced anyone who is at all memorable?
  • tyson said:

    I've never quite seen the point of Lincolnshire. Has it ever produced anyone who is at all memorable?
    Top trolling, comrade.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Thatcher
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Big switch in party registrations from DEM to GOP since 2012. Early numbers might not be as good for GOP as they seem...


    Steve Schale
    @steveschale

    Turns out almost 50k of GOP EV in 16 were Dem EV in 12. I'd be surprised if more than 1-2k of them had voted Dem since 1964 or 76. 2/2
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    nunu said:

    but fine to call mexicans rapist and murders?
    And 'good people'.
  • Mr. Tyson, isn't Lincoln Cathedral one of the best in the country?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    The referendum was drafted so that the result would not be legally binding. The government conceded that in court, correctly the judges held (paragraph 105 of the judgment). So its effects can only be political not legal.

    Once that is appreciated, the question is not whether the referendum decided the matter legally but who legally has the power to start the process of leaving the EU. The government was arguing in effect that it could do so without ever getting Parliament's approval or even consulting it.

    This question is more important than Brexit. The executive needs to be subject to proper controls. In a sane world newspapers would applaud a court ruling upholding that.

    As for a general election, Theresa May should have called one straight away. The courts may be doing her a favour, forcing her to do what in any case was in her own best interests. Though running on "who governs Britain?" is a risky strategy. It might well be that the electorate are interested in other questions as well, as Ted Heath found out.

    Absolutely correct! The final two sentences are spot on. I would simply add that there is no requirement for Corbyn to bow to any plans May have for an election - particularly when his party is so far adrift in the polls.
  • Same as HS1 and the Victorian lines through Kent.
    Victoria lines and Victorian lines.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    Cameron was crap.

    It's funny how some seem to think that Theresa May (on whom the jury is still out) should be replaced by George Osborne, the 'mastermind' behind the Cameron government. The government that gave us a referendum on something they didn't want to change, failed in the campaign and saw a massive antiestablishment revolt after they'd been in power 6 years. You wonder sometimes if Osborne 'has' something on many of the country's leading opinion formers. To them he is clearly made of teflon.
  • justin124 said:

    Absolutely correct! The final two sentences are spot on. I would simply add that there is no requirement for Corbyn to bow to any plans May have for an election - particularly when his party is so far adrift in the polls.
    You keep saying this. But the no confidence route around the FTPA will not make Corbyn Prime Minister, because no alternative government can be formed. And given this, Labour might as well vote for the GE under the FTPA.
  • tyson said:

    I've never quite seen the point of Lincolnshire. Has it ever produced anyone who is at all memorable?
    Isaac Newton

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,307

    Isaac Newton

    Margaret Thatcher.
  • Any chance that Phillips will not be the Tory candidate in Sleaford? Constituency chairmen may take a view that being 'sound' on Brexit is a requirement.
  • In the Richmond Park by-election, Zac Goldsmith will be able top claim the moral high ground by pointing out that he will be upholding the will of the people by voting for Article 50 even though his constituents mostly voted Remain.

    Puts the Lib Dem candidate in the awkward position of choosing democracy or being against triggering Article 50.
  • TINFOIL!

    Sun picture looks a lot more like the woman I saw on TV last night. Times pic looks overexposed and shiny.
    Is the woman fund manager a foreigner though?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    When this Sleaford thing is out of the way, UKIP can keep up the pressure by resigning their European Parliament seats one a month to show just how popular Brexit is.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    No, I don't know that the purpose of the challenge was to subvert the will of the people. The purpose of the challenge was to prevent the government from triggering Article 50 without the approval of Parliament. Parliament will approve the triggering of Article 50, but if it doesn't the government will resign, an election will be called and the governing party will win an increased majority. There is no route from here for the UK to stay in the EU without the express and direct permission of the British people.

    If the Government resigns it ceases to be in office. A new Government and PM would have to be appointed before any election is called.
  • When this Sleaford thing is out of the way, UKIP can keep up the pressure by resigning their European Parliament seats one a month to show just how popular Brexit is.

    There are no by-elections for MEP seats. The next party member in line on the list gets the job.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    There are no by-elections for MEP seats. The next party member in line on the list gets the job.
    Oh. That's no fun.

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    rcs1000 said:

    Yes, the FTPA is no problem for a govt with a majority
    It would be in the Lords!
This discussion has been closed.