Can we talk about UKIP rather than this now-predictable POTUS election?
UKIP might be about to seize victory from the jaws of oblivion. Both Evans and Nuttall are perfect in terms of seizing Labour territory in the north, Wales, etc. They just need to sort out their chaotic party squabbling, find some money, and get decent candidates.
Both candidates are miles ahead of Corbyn. Labour are facing - yes - an existential threat.
Agreed. There ought to be scope for such a party. Many of the senior figures have done all they can to sink the ship, but the article cited by Alistair Meeks shows 10-14% supporting the party in local elections, similar to the polls.
But, personality clashes can destroy the party.
I can see a sensible, disciplined, Suzanne Evans-led UKIP winning 20% of the vote in England and Wales in 2020. That would doom Labour to permanent irrelevance.
Eventually this UKIP might actually win a general election.
The party is at a critical stage. They could disappear in the next two years, or become England's SNP.
If UKIP are to have a future it will be because May has 'diluted' Brexit somewhat in the eyes of hardcore Leavers, hence they will fight the next election on a hardcore anti immigration, anti free movement, anti contributions to EU and anti Single Market platform (if we stay in the latter in any form). Nuttall is more likely to be able to do that than Evans and will target Tory Leave voters in Essex and Kent as much as Labour Leave voters in industrial areas of the North and Midlands
No offence to PB. But Trump has lost. I cannot raise even a semi in excitement.
I'd be really worried about you if you could raise even a semi in excitement over Donald Trump
Who can resist the Donald's tiny hands...
Studies were conducted on the marked fascination exercised by the Presidential contender’s hairstyle. 65% of male subjects made positive connections between the hairstyle and their own pubic hair. A series of optimum hairstyles were constructed.
Fragments of Reagan’s cinetized postures were used in the construction of model psychodramas in which the Reagan-figure played the role of husband, doctor, insurance salesman, marriage counselor, etc.
The failure of these roles to express any meaning reveals the nonfunctional character of Reagan. Reagan’s success therefore indicates society’s periodic need to re-conceptualize its political leaders. Reagan thus appears as a series of posture concepts, basic equations which reformulate the roles of aggression and anality. Reagan’s personality. The profound anality of the Presidential contender may be expected to dominate the United States in the coming years. By contrast the late JFK remained the prototype of the oral subject, usually conceived in pre-pubertal terms. In further studies sadistic psychopaths were given the task of devising sex fantasies involving Reagan. Results confirm the probability of Presidential figures being perceived primarily in genital terms; the face of LB Johnson is clearly genital in significant appearance--the nasal prepuce, scrotal jaw, etc. Faces were seen as either circumcised (JFK, Khrushchev) or uncircumcised (LBJ, Adenauer). In assembly-kit tests Reagan’s face was uniformly perceived as a penile erection. Patients were encouraged to devise the optimum sex-death of Ronald Reagan.
I've only been through it twice as it turns into a hard read at times, especially the machinations at the Dem conference. The parliamentary proceedings group discussion they have (the one transcribed from tape) is probably both the most interesting, and dullest, back and forth I have ever read.
It is a hell of a slog in parts, like a lot of Thompson's writing, but there is a lot of interesting stuff in the book.
IIt feels self indulgent at times, but he really gets outside the bubble in a way that the morons at the Canary only wish they could. Rather than wiring their click bait bullshit.
Thompson must have been a nightmare to work with or for, and I think probably only tolerable in small doses, but when he wrote about something he went and took a good long hard look and told you what he saw warts and all. When you read Thompson on politics, or sports, or whatever you see that even though he is frequently exaggerating or inventing things that in his own way he's a lot more truthful than the edited, fact-checked, multiply sourced establishment journalism that fears offending the powerful or losing access.
I was sorting out a kitchen today and was told that almost all the prices will be going up by 15% or more in the next few days, as most of the brands come from Germany. As we were going through the online catalogues it was clear that some of the prices already rose back on 1 September.
SPIN have bumped their price on the Clinton ECV spread to 325-335, up five today and up six from a couple of days ago. They are still lower than Spreadex (329-341).
Can we talk about UKIP rather than this now-predictable POTUS election?
UKIP might be about to seize victory from the jaws of oblivion. Both Evans and Nuttall are perfect in terms of seizing Labour territory in the north, Wales, etc. They just need to sort out their chaotic party squabbling, find some money, and get decent candidates.
Both candidates are miles ahead of Corbyn. Labour are facing - yes - an existential threat.
Agreed. There ought to be scope for such a party. Many of the senior figures have done all they can to sink the ship, but the article cited by Alistair Meeks shows 10-14% supporting the party in local elections, similar to the polls.
But, personality clashes can destroy the party.
I can see a sensible, disciplined, Suzanne Evans-led UKIP winning 20% of the vote in England and Wales in 2020. That would doom Labour to permanent irrelevance.
Eventually this UKIP might actually win a general election.
The party is at a critical stage. They could disappear in the next two years, or become England's SNP.
Suzanne was a Con councillor in Merton until 2014. She defected to UKIP and stood again. In Hillside ward in 2014 she was eighth in a member ward behind 3 Conservative 3 Labour and a Liberal . I know that in the land of the blind the one eyed man is king but really.
It seems Panorama have discovered the reason why the Syrian child refugees from the Jungle have arms like Popeye and Adam's apples the size of a fist...
All the 7 and 8 year olds are making our clothes in Turkish sweatshops
FPT TOPPING said: "Why does Zac appeal so much to the voters of Richmond? What can he actually do for them?"
Zac is a very energetic well-liked local MP. I reckon he has a personal vote of around 10,000.
LibDems lost 11,000 to other third parties and can probably squeeze 8,000 of that back.
Some Tories will switch to the LibDems because of a) LHR b) Brexit (Zac is a Leaver) c) annoyed with Zac for causing a by election and standing as an independent. I reckon 5-8,000 Tories can be persuaded to vote LibDem. This gives a switch of 8,000 plus 10-16,000 to the LibDems,
Zac had a majority of 23,000. This implies that the LibDem could just make it if they can persuade 8,000 Tories to punish the Tory Party for LHR and Brexit. But it is a stretch.
FPT TOPPING said: "Why does Zac appeal so much to the voters of Richmond? What can he actually do for them?"
Zac is a very energetic well-liked local MP. I reckon he has a personal vote of around 10,000.
LibDems lost 11,000 to other third parties and can probably squeeze 8,000 of that back.
Some Tories will switch to the LibDems because of a) LHR b) Brexit (Zac is a Leaver) c) annoyed with Zac for causing a by election and standing as an independent. I reckon 5-8,000 Tories can be persuaded to vote LibDem. This gives a switch of 8,000 plus 10-16,000 to the LibDems,
Zac had a majority of 23,000. This implies that the LibDem could just make it if they can persuade 8,000 Tories to punish the Tory Party for LHR and Brexit. But it is a stretch.
FPT TOPPING said: "Why does Zac appeal so much to the voters of Richmond? What can he actually do for them?"
Zac is a very energetic well-liked local MP. I reckon he has a personal vote of around 10,000.
LibDems lost 11,000 to other third parties and can probably squeeze 8,000 of that back.
Some Tories will switch to the LibDems because of a) LHR b) Brexit (Zac is a Leaver) c) annoyed with Zac for causing a by election and standing as an independent. I reckon 5-8,000 Tories can be persuaded to vote LibDem. This gives a switch of 8,000 plus 10-16,000 to the LibDems,
Zac had a majority of 23,000. This implies that the LibDem could just make it if they can persuade 8,000 Tories to punish the Tory Party for LHR and Brexit. But it is a stretch.
Also: who cares.
He's a LEAVE MP, May needs every vote she can get.
FPT TOPPING said: "Why does Zac appeal so much to the voters of Richmond? What can he actually do for them?"
Zac is a very energetic well-liked local MP. I reckon he has a personal vote of around 10,000.
LibDems lost 11,000 to other third parties and can probably squeeze 8,000 of that back.
Some Tories will switch to the LibDems because of a) LHR b) Brexit (Zac is a Leaver) c) annoyed with Zac for causing a by election and standing as an independent. I reckon 5-8,000 Tories can be persuaded to vote LibDem. This gives a switch of 8,000 plus 10-16,000 to the LibDems,
Zac had a majority of 23,000. This implies that the LibDem could just make it if they can persuade 8,000 Tories to punish the Tory Party for LHR and Brexit. But it is a stretch.
Zac has said he will run as an independent, the local Tories will likely give him a free pass
Good. Fuck this dipshit posho Tory Greenie. SAINT Theresa is going for full on, free trading, build Heathrow, build HS2, build Hinkley, build everything, turn the UK into a Singapore with Masterchef fuck-the-Celts, fuck-lefty-eco-wankers superplan. BUILD.
Not a Zac fan then but good to see you coming round to May!
FPT TOPPING said: "Why does Zac appeal so much to the voters of Richmond? What can he actually do for them?"
Zac is a very energetic well-liked local MP. I reckon he has a personal vote of around 10,000.
LibDems lost 11,000 to other third parties and can probably squeeze 8,000 of that back.
Some Tories will switch to the LibDems because of a) LHR b) Brexit (Zac is a Leaver) c) annoyed with Zac for causing a by election and standing as an independent. I reckon 5-8,000 Tories can be persuaded to vote LibDem. This gives a switch of 8,000 plus 10-16,000 to the LibDems,
Zac had a majority of 23,000. This implies that the LibDem could just make it if they can persuade 8,000 Tories to punish the Tory Party for LHR and Brexit. But it is a stretch.
Zac has said he will run as an independent, the local Tories will likely give him a free pass
The local Tory party will. Most Tory voters will, But not all - for the reasons I give above.
FPT TOPPING said: "Why does Zac appeal so much to the voters of Richmond? What can he actually do for them?"
Zac is a very energetic well-liked local MP. I reckon he has a personal vote of around 10,000.
LibDems lost 11,000 to other third parties and can probably squeeze 8,000 of that back.
Some Tories will switch to the LibDems because of a) LHR b) Brexit (Zac is a Leaver) c) annoyed with Zac for causing a by election and standing as an independent. I reckon 5-8,000 Tories can be persuaded to vote LibDem. This gives a switch of 8,000 plus 10-16,000 to the LibDems,
Zac had a majority of 23,000. This implies that the LibDem could just make it if they can persuade 8,000 Tories to punish the Tory Party for LHR and Brexit. But it is a stretch.
Zac has said he will run as an independent, the local Tories will likely give him a free pass
The local Tory party will. Most Tory voters will, But not all - for the reasons I give above.
What? No-one standing to support government policy?
FPT TOPPING said: "Why does Zac appeal so much to the voters of Richmond? What can he actually do for them?"
Zac is a very energetic well-liked local MP. I reckon he has a personal vote of around 10,000.
LibDems lost 11,000 to other third parties and can probably squeeze 8,000 of that back.
Some Tories will switch to the LibDems because of a) LHR b) Brexit (Zac is a Leaver) c) annoyed with Zac for causing a by election and standing as an independent. I reckon 5-8,000 Tories can be persuaded to vote LibDem. This gives a switch of 8,000 plus 10-16,000 to the LibDems,
Zac had a majority of 23,000. This implies that the LibDem could just make it if they can persuade 8,000 Tories to punish the Tory Party for LHR and Brexit. But it is a stretch.
Zac has said he will run as an independent, the local Tories will likely give him a free pass
The local Tory party will. Most Tory voters will, But not all - for the reasons I give above.
What? No-one standing to support government policy?
Good. Fuck this dipshit posho Tory Greenie. SAINT Theresa is going for full on, free trading, build Heathrow, build HS2, build Hinkley, build everything, turn the UK into a Singapore with Masterchef fuck-the-Celts, fuck-lefty-eco-wankers superplan. BUILD.
Not a Zac fan then but good to see you coming round to May!
Not a huge fan of May. But she is all we have. So, build. And push for soft-boiled Brexit.
I think she will almost certainly offer EU citizens the right to come to live in the UK but only with a job offer and try and get a trade deal around that
FPT TOPPING said: "Why does Zac appeal so much to the voters of Richmond? What can he actually do for them?"
Zac is a very energetic well-liked local MP. I reckon he has a personal vote of around 10,000.
LibDems lost 11,000 to other third parties and can probably squeeze 8,000 of that back.
Some Tories will switch to the LibDems because of a) LHR b) Brexit (Zac is a Leaver) c) annoyed with Zac for causing a by election and standing as an independent. I reckon 5-8,000 Tories can be persuaded to vote LibDem. This gives a switch of 8,000 plus 10-16,000 to the LibDems,
Zac had a majority of 23,000. This implies that the LibDem could just make it if they can persuade 8,000 Tories to punish the Tory Party for LHR and Brexit. But it is a stretch.
Zac has said he will run as an independent, the local Tories will likely give him a free pass
The local Tory party will. Most Tory voters will, But not all - for the reasons I give above.
The LDs might cut his majority but I can't see him losing. Goodnight
This uncertainty cuts in both directions, so we probably also give higher odds to (say) Clinton winning 400+ EV than other models.
The RCP average has Clinton 5 points ahead with 4 candidates. To give Trump only a 15% chance of victory seems far too low to me, given that figure. I know he's focusing on states, but even so.
If the anti-immigration far right wanted to do some black propaganda ostensibly coming from multiculturalist supporters of mass immigration, they could hardly make a more effective film than that.
Sweden is a very weird place - all "lagom" on the surface and everyone-is-corrupt noir fiction underneath.
Did you see the newsnight segment on Swedish jahadi's. Even through the bbc rose tinted lens it looked awful. To put it mildly, the famed open liberal society wasn't working very well.
It occurs to me that, by mistake, UKIP have come up with two very threatening-to-Labour candidates, in Paul Nuttall and Suzanne Evans.
If they go the centrist but ethnocentric route, socially conservative and patriotic, and if they can somehow find donors and decent candidates, UKIP under either of these plausible leaders could supplant Labour-under-Corbyn. Literally: SUPPLANT.
They would be the Hard Brexit working class patriots versus the soft Brexit Tory poshos, and Labour would be nowhere. Labour would be finished.
Out of curiosity, how do you come to have so much insight into what Labour voters think of UKIP leader options?
Interestingly, the polls underestimated the Swedish Democrats at the 2014 election. And the polls at the moment show quite a variation. YouGov and Sentio consistently have them in the mid 20s. The others have them in the mid to high teens.
When are we getting the Heathrow announcement, will it be at 07:30 (half an hour from now) before the stock market opens?
Commons statement at 12.30, I'd guess.
If it's not the whole new runway at Heathrow, the industry will come back for more. And even if it is. Only it'll wait a teeny bit longer. If I were PM I'd demolish the whole of London....
Morning all. That Swedish video is a spoof, right?
Not sure, it may have been sponsored by the Borg collective...
Wow. It is the sort of advertising mis-step I'd expect from the London elite. Totally misunderstanding the problem at the same time as telling nationals that they're wrong/nasty/stupid.
When are we getting the Heathrow announcement, will it be at 07:30 (half an hour from now) before the stock market opens?
Commons statement at 12.30, I'd guess.
If it's not the whole new runway at Heathrow, the industry will come back for more. And even if it is. Only it'll wait a teeny bit longer. If I were PM I'd demolish the whole of London....
Given the amount of media reports that it will almost certainly be Heathrow (from a government leaking like a sieve on Brexit), the government would be playing a strange game if it turns out any different.
Labour have been fined £20k for not declaring election expenses
Including the EdStone...
LOL, the gift that keeps on giving.
But seriously, there's been stories about all parties and 2015 election expenses, which suggests that urgent clarity is required from the Electoral Commission before the next election. I would suggest more detail on classifications of spending, and a helpdesk operating during the election period so the parties can have edge cases or stunts cleared in advance - but backed up with draconian fines (10x the spending?) for subsequent misdemeanours.
FPT TOPPING said: "Why does Zac appeal so much to the voters of Richmond? What can he actually do for them?"
Zac is a very energetic well-liked local MP. I reckon he has a personal vote of around 10,000.
LibDems lost 11,000 to other third parties and can probably squeeze 8,000 of that back.
Some Tories will switch to the LibDems because of a) LHR b) Brexit (Zac is a Leaver) c) annoyed with Zac for causing a by election and standing as an independent. I reckon 5-8,000 Tories can be persuaded to vote LibDem. This gives a switch of 8,000 plus 10-16,000 to the LibDems,
Zac had a majority of 23,000. This implies that the LibDem could just make it if they can persuade 8,000 Tories to punish the Tory Party for LHR and Brexit. But it is a stretch.
Zac has said he will run as an independent, the local Tories will likely give him a free pass
Can the Tories afford to lose a bit of their majority? An Independent MP can't be relied on.
FPT TOPPING said: "Why does Zac appeal so much to the voters of Richmond? What can he actually do for them?"
Zac is a very energetic well-liked local MP. I reckon he has a personal vote of around 10,000.
LibDems lost 11,000 to other third parties and can probably squeeze 8,000 of that back.
Some Tories will switch to the LibDems because of a) LHR b) Brexit (Zac is a Leaver) c) annoyed with Zac for causing a by election and standing as an independent. I reckon 5-8,000 Tories can be persuaded to vote LibDem. This gives a switch of 8,000 plus 10-16,000 to the LibDems,
Zac had a majority of 23,000. This implies that the LibDem could just make it if they can persuade 8,000 Tories to punish the Tory Party for LHR and Brexit. But it is a stretch.
Zac has said he will run as an independent, the local Tories will likely give him a free pass
Can the Tories afford to lose a bit of their majority? An Independent MP can't be relied on.
The Tories need to fight it, the question is whether the gap year kid decides to stand as an independent.
Assuming we get Heathrow expansion, it's the obvious choice and lets just get on with it.
I use Birmingham Airport quite a bit, but would use it alot more if there was a greater range of routes. It seems to me a very underutilised facility considering it has excellent fast rail links to London and the NW, as well as to its own hinterland. Surely encouraging a bit more long and medium haul from Birmingham would be a good use of investment.
Good. Fuck this dipshit posho Tory Greenie. SAINT Theresa is going for full on, free trading, build Heathrow, build HS2, build Hinkley, build everything, turn the UK into a Singapore with Masterchef fuck-the-Celts, fuck-lefty-eco-wankers superplan. BUILD.
Turn the whole sh*thole into a runway for all we care. All you saddos desperate to get out of the dump.
good opportunity for open source software companies
We rarely agree but you're right here. Someone willing to put a couple of million into Linux and Open Office support has a great opportunity. We should be encouraging small businesses and government entities to move away from the M$ lock-in. Most modern web applications are platform-agnostic, we don't have the IE6 problem any more.
Assuming we get Heathrow expansion, it's the obvious choice and lets just get on with it.
I use Birmingham Airport quite a bit, but would use it alot more if there was a greater range of routes. It seems to me a very underutilised facility considering it has excellent fast rail links to London and the NW, as well as to its own hinterland. Surely encouraging a bit more long and medium haul from Birmingham would be a good use of investment.
Until they sort out flights from all local airports to Heathrow I'll stick to via Schiphol - its the 25 minutes from arrival at MME to departure time that is the winner for me,
The nightly live stream provides the campaign a way to get around the mainstream media, which Trump has routinely attacked during the election, Epshteyn told Wired.
“We all know how strong the left wing media bias is,” he said. “This is us delivering our message to voters. It has nothing to do with Trump TV. It’s about using 21st century technology and communication in a way that’s effective.”
FPT TOPPING said: "Why does Zac appeal so much to the voters of Richmond? What can he actually do for them?"
Zac is a very energetic well-liked local MP. I reckon he has a personal vote of around 10,000.
LibDems lost 11,000 to other third parties and can probably squeeze 8,000 of that back.
Some Tories will switch to the LibDems because of a) LHR b) Brexit (Zac is a Leaver) c) annoyed with Zac for causing a by election and standing as an independent. I reckon 5-8,000 Tories can be persuaded to vote LibDem. This gives a switch of 8,000 plus 10-16,000 to the LibDems,
Zac had a majority of 23,000. This implies that the LibDem could just make it if they can persuade 8,000 Tories to punish the Tory Party for LHR and Brexit. But it is a stretch.
Zac has said he will run as an independent, the local Tories will likely give him a free pass
Can the Tories afford to lose a bit of their majority? An Independent MP can't be relied on.
problem is that a Tory and Zac running against each other could split the vote and let in a Lib dem. Esp with the Lib dem being REMAIN in London...
FPT TOPPING said: "Why does Zac appeal so much to the voters of Richmond? What can he actually do for them?"
Zac is a very energetic well-liked local MP. I reckon he has a personal vote of around 10,000.
LibDems lost 11,000 to other third parties and can probably squeeze 8,000 of that back.
Some Tories will switch to the LibDems because of a) LHR b) Brexit (Zac is a Leaver) c) annoyed with Zac for causing a by election and standing as an independent. I reckon 5-8,000 Tories can be persuaded to vote LibDem. This gives a switch of 8,000 plus 10-16,000 to the LibDems,
Zac had a majority of 23,000. This implies that the LibDem could just make it if they can persuade 8,000 Tories to punish the Tory Party for LHR and Brexit. But it is a stretch.
Zac has said he will run as an independent, the local Tories will likely give him a free pass
Can the Tories afford to lose a bit of their majority? An Independent MP can't be relied on.
The Tories need to fight it, the question is whether the gap year kid decides to stand as an independent.
Yes, the Tories have to stand a candidate. A serving MP quitting or defecting must know he will be challenged by the party machine.
The irony is that when the new runway opens, Zac's constituents will have *fewer* planes flying overhead, as the planned expansion is north of the existing airport.
good opportunity for open source software companies
We rarely agree but you're right here. Someone willing to put a couple of million into Linux and Open Office support has a great opportunity. We should be encouraging small businesses and government entities to move away from the M$ lock-in. Most modern web applications are platform-agnostic, we don't have the IE6 problem any more.
Anyone looking to backend a system with Python should be hosting on PythonAnywhere*. Extremely cost effective, and incredibly reliable. It's like Amazon EC2, but with no system administration overhead, and it scales automatically. Think Heroku, but better.
FPT TOPPING said: "Why does Zac appeal so much to the voters of Richmond? What can he actually do for them?"
Zac is a very energetic well-liked local MP. I reckon he has a personal vote of around 10,000.
LibDems lost 11,000 to other third parties and can probably squeeze 8,000 of that back.
Some Tories will switch to the LibDems because of a) LHR b) Brexit (Zac is a Leaver) c) annoyed with Zac for causing a by election and standing as an independent. I reckon 5-8,000 Tories can be persuaded to vote LibDem. This gives a switch of 8,000 plus 10-16,000 to the LibDems,
Zac had a majority of 23,000. This implies that the LibDem could just make it if they can persuade 8,000 Tories to punish the Tory Party for LHR and Brexit. But it is a stretch.
Zac has said he will run as an independent, the local Tories will likely give him a free pass
Can the Tories afford to lose a bit of their majority? An Independent MP can't be relied on.
The Tories need to fight it, the question is whether the gap year kid decides to stand as an independent.
Yes, the Tories have to stand a candidate. A serving MP quitting or defecting must know he will be challenged by the party machine.
The irony is that when the new runway opens, Zac's constituents will have *fewer* planes flying overhead, as the planned expansion is north of the existing airport.
Nah, they'll choose to not fight on the basis of not giving him a platform.
Assuming we get Heathrow expansion, it's the obvious choice and lets just get on with it.
I use Birmingham Airport quite a bit, but would use it alot more if there was a greater range of routes. It seems to me a very underutilised facility considering it has excellent fast rail links to London and the NW, as well as to its own hinterland. Surely encouraging a bit more long and medium haul from Birmingham would be a good use of investment.
Until they sort out flights from all local airports to Heathrow I'll stick to via Schiphol - its the 25 minutes from arrival at MME to departure time that is the winner for me,
Yes, KLM have a much better network from British regional airports than BA, as do Emirates for long haul. It's a symptom of LHR being completely full, and something BA would hope to address with the new runways.
Gosh. We have a newspaper with investigative journalists. Good work, Telegraph.
Mr. Sandpit, I've been using Open Office since changing from XP to 7. After a few small problems (took me bloody ages to discover how to change from straight to curly apostrophes/speech marks) it's worked fine. About to discover how well it handles formatting e-books (obviously that's a rather niche interest).
FPT TOPPING said: "Why does Zac appeal so much to the voters of Richmond? What can he actually do for them?"
Zac is a very energetic well-liked local MP. I reckon he has a personal vote of around 10,000.
LibDems lost 11,000 to other third parties and can probably squeeze 8,000 of that back.
Some Tories will switch to the LibDems because of a) LHR b) Brexit (Zac is a Leaver) c) annoyed with Zac for causing a by election and standing as an independent. I reckon 5-8,000 Tories can be persuaded to vote LibDem. This gives a switch of 8,000 plus 10-16,000 to the LibDems,
Zac had a majority of 23,000. This implies that the LibDem could just make it if they can persuade 8,000 Tories to punish the Tory Party for LHR and Brexit. But it is a stretch.
Zac has said he will run as an independent, the local Tories will likely give him a free pass
Can the Tories afford to lose a bit of their majority? An Independent MP can't be relied on.
The Tories need to fight it, the question is whether the gap year kid decides to stand as an independent.
Yes, the Tories have to stand a candidate. A serving MP quitting or defecting must know he will be challenged by the party machine.
The irony is that when the new runway opens, Zac's constituents will have *fewer* planes flying overhead, as the planned expansion is north of the existing airport.
Nah, they'll choose to not fight on the basis of not giving him a platform.
good opportunity for open source software companies
We rarely agree but you're right here. Someone willing to put a couple of million into Linux and Open Office support has a great opportunity. We should be encouraging small businesses and government entities to move away from the M$ lock-in. Most modern web applications are platform-agnostic, we don't have the IE6 problem any more.
FPT TOPPING said: "Why does Zac appeal so much to the voters of Richmond? What can he actually do for them?"
Zac is a very energetic well-liked local MP. I reckon he has a personal vote of around 10,000.
LibDems lost 11,000 to other third parties and can probably squeeze 8,000 of that back.
Some Tories will switch to the LibDems because of a) LHR b) Brexit (Zac is a Leaver) c) annoyed with Zac for causing a by election and standing as an independent. I reckon 5-8,000 Tories can be persuaded to vote LibDem. This gives a switch of 8,000 plus 10-16,000 to the LibDems,
Zac had a majority of 23,000. This implies that the LibDem could just make it if they can persuade 8,000 Tories to punish the Tory Party for LHR and Brexit. But it is a stretch.
Zac has said he will run as an independent, the local Tories will likely give him a free pass
Can the Tories afford to lose a bit of their majority? An Independent MP can't be relied on.
He could probably be relied upon almost as much as an independent as as a whipped MP; certainly a lot more than a Lib Dem could.
Questions for CCHQ would be:
1. How well would an official Conservative do running against Zac (and against everyone else)? 2. How much would splitting the Con vote risk letting the Lib Dems in? 3. How much of a loss would it be to have Zac returned as an independent?
My own solution, if Zac is willing to run with it, would be for the Tories to nominate him again. If he won't, then give him a clear run.
FPT TOPPING said: "Why does Zac appeal so much to the voters of Richmond? What can he actually do for them?"
Zac is a very energetic well-liked local MP. I reckon he has a personal vote of around 10,000.
LibDems lost 11,000 to other third parties and can probably squeeze 8,000 of that back.
Some Tories will switch to the LibDems because of a) LHR b) Brexit (Zac is a Leaver) c) annoyed with Zac for causing a by election and standing as an independent. I reckon 5-8,000 Tories can be persuaded to vote LibDem. This gives a switch of 8,000 plus 10-16,000 to the LibDems,
Zac had a majority of 23,000. This implies that the LibDem could just make it if they can persuade 8,000 Tories to punish the Tory Party for LHR and Brexit. But it is a stretch.
Zac has said he will run as an independent, the local Tories will likely give him a free pass
Can the Tories afford to lose a bit of their majority? An Independent MP can't be relied on.
The Tories need to fight it, the question is whether the gap year kid decides to stand as an independent.
Yes, the Tories have to stand a candidate. A serving MP quitting or defecting must know he will be challenged by the party machine.
The irony is that when the new runway opens, Zac's constituents will have *fewer* planes flying overhead, as the planned expansion is north of the existing airport.
Nah, they'll choose to not fight on the basis of not giving him a platform.
What about 2020?
He may have rejoined the party by then or decided to retire from Parliament.
FPT TOPPING said: "Why does Zac appeal so much to the voters of Richmond? What can he actually do for them?"
Zac is a very energetic well-liked local MP. I reckon he has a personal vote of around 10,000.
LibDems lost 11,000 to other third parties and can probably squeeze 8,000 of that back.
Some Tories will switch to the LibDems because of a) LHR b) Brexit (Zac is a Leaver) c) annoyed with Zac for causing a by election and standing as an independent. I reckon 5-8,000 Tories can be persuaded to vote LibDem. This gives a switch of 8,000 plus 10-16,000 to the LibDems,
Zac had a majority of 23,000. This implies that the LibDem could just make it if they can persuade 8,000 Tories to punish the Tory Party for LHR and Brexit. But it is a stretch.
Zac has said he will run as an independent, the local Tories will likely give him a free pass
Can the Tories afford to lose a bit of their majority? An Independent MP can't be relied on.
The Tories need to fight it, the question is whether the gap year kid decides to stand as an independent.
Yes, the Tories have to stand a candidate. A serving MP quitting or defecting must know he will be challenged by the party machine.
The irony is that when the new runway opens, Zac's constituents will have *fewer* planes flying overhead, as the planned expansion is north of the existing airport.
Nah, they'll choose to not fight on the basis of not giving him a platform.
I agree. Making a big decision affecting a constituency and then putting no-one up to defend it is, nevertheless, rather wimpy.
I still wonder whether ZG himself will wimp out and delay his decision on the basis that today's decision is actually not that, but merely a recommendation subject to consultation.
Assuming we get Heathrow expansion, it's the obvious choice and lets just get on with it.
I use Birmingham Airport quite a bit, but would use it alot more if there was a greater range of routes. It seems to me a very underutilised facility considering it has excellent fast rail links to London and the NW, as well as to its own hinterland. Surely encouraging a bit more long and medium haul from Birmingham would be a good use of investment.
Until they sort out flights from all local airports to Heathrow I'll stick to via Schiphol - its the 25 minutes from arrival at MME to departure time that is the winner for me,
Yes, KLM have a much better network from British regional airports than BA, as do Emirates for long haul. It's a symptom of LHR being completely full, and something BA would hope to address with the new runways.
Or BA could use regional airports. I don't want to have to go to the south of London or beyond to fly somewhere. Manchester or E Mids would do fine. And those extra flights from the north and midlands would be beneficial to Londoners and those in the SE, cutting down on noise pollution there.
FPT TOPPING said: "Why does Zac appeal so much to the voters of Richmond? What can he actually do for them?"
Zac is a very energetic well-liked local MP. I reckon he has a personal vote of around 10,000.
LibDems lost 11,000 to other third parties and can probably squeeze 8,000 of that back.
Some Tories will switch to the LibDems because of a) LHR b) Brexit (Zac is a Leaver) c) annoyed with Zac for causing a by election and standing as an independent. I reckon 5-8,000 Tories can be persuaded to vote LibDem. This gives a switch of 8,000 plus 10-16,000 to the LibDems,
Zac had a majority of 23,000. This implies that the LibDem could just make it if they can persuade 8,000 Tories to punish the Tory Party for LHR and Brexit. But it is a stretch.
Zac has said he will run as an independent, the local Tories will likely give him a free pass
Can the Tories afford to lose a bit of their majority? An Independent MP can't be relied on.
The Tories need to fight it, the question is whether the gap year kid decides to stand as an independent.
Yes, the Tories have to stand a candidate. A serving MP quitting or defecting must know he will be challenged by the party machine.
The irony is that when the new runway opens, Zac's constituents will have *fewer* planes flying overhead, as the planned expansion is north of the existing airport.
Nah, they'll choose to not fight on the basis of not giving him a platform.
Why the reverence for Zac, though? Of course they will stand a candidate as the party's purpose is to win elections, the corollary of which is to be able to win votes in parliament.
Comments
Fragments of Reagan’s cinetized postures were used in the construction of model psychodramas in which the Reagan-figure played the role of husband, doctor, insurance salesman, marriage counselor, etc.
The failure of these roles to express any meaning reveals the nonfunctional character of Reagan. Reagan’s success therefore indicates society’s periodic need to re-conceptualize its political leaders. Reagan thus appears as a series of posture concepts, basic equations which reformulate the roles of aggression and anality. Reagan’s personality. The profound anality of the Presidential contender may be expected to dominate the United States in the coming years. By contrast the late JFK remained the prototype of the oral subject, usually conceived in pre-pubertal terms. In further studies sadistic psychopaths were given the task of devising sex fantasies involving Reagan. Results confirm the probability of Presidential figures being perceived primarily in genital terms; the face of LB Johnson is clearly genital in significant appearance--the nasal prepuce, scrotal jaw, etc. Faces were seen as either circumcised (JFK, Khrushchev) or uncircumcised (LBJ, Adenauer). In assembly-kit tests Reagan’s face was uniformly perceived as a penile erection. Patients were encouraged to devise the optimum sex-death of Ronald Reagan.
With apologies to J G Ballard.
https://twitter.com/scientists4eu/status/790619580796379137
Chinese smartphone maker OnePlus also hiked the price of its OnePlus3 model by 6.5%.
FLIGHT OR FIGHT Theresa May clears criticism of Heathrow expansion from personal website ahead of runway announcement
Seven-year-old posts in which the Prime Minister condemned the then-Labour government over plans for a third runway have been deleted from her website
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2042014/theresa-may-clears-criticism-of-heathrow-expansion-from-personal-website-ahead-of-runway-announcement/
So Zac resigns tomorrow
All the 7 and 8 year olds are making our clothes in Turkish sweatshops
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/790672453475373060
If only IOS was still around to tell us about it.
https://twitter.com/RileySnyder/status/790667253368979456
"Why does Zac appeal so much to the voters of Richmond? What can he actually do for them?"
Zac is a very energetic well-liked local MP. I reckon he has a personal vote of around 10,000.
LibDems lost 11,000 to other third parties and can probably squeeze 8,000 of that back.
Some Tories will switch to the LibDems because of a) LHR b) Brexit (Zac is a Leaver) c) annoyed with Zac for causing a by election and standing as an independent. I reckon 5-8,000 Tories can be persuaded to vote LibDem. This gives a switch of 8,000 plus 10-16,000 to the LibDems,
Zac had a majority of 23,000. This implies that the LibDem could just make it if they can persuade 8,000 Tories to punish the Tory Party for LHR and Brexit. But it is a stretch.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbctwo
Washoe County GOP chairman (NV swing county) tells @ChrisJansing Trump campaign won't return his calls:
Embedded image
607
688
Kyle Griffin
2h
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/24/sweden-holds-out-olive-branch-to-brexit-britain/
(But what are these cherries that everyone is so anxious we don't pick ?)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_general_election,_2018#Poll_results
Nate Silver @NateSilver538 19m19 minutes ago
Our forecast gives Trump a 15% chance, while others have him at just 1%-7%. Here's why we're more conservative.
Nate Silver @NateSilver538 8m8 minutes ago
This uncertainty cuts in both directions, so we probably also give higher odds to (say) Clinton winning 400+ EV than other models.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
Clinton 1.205
Trump 6.1
Sanders 175
Pence 845
Biden 895
Kaine 985
What's with the betting on Sanders?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LAwJDA_DB0
Sweden is a very weird place - all "lagom" on the surface and everyone-is-corrupt noir fiction underneath.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37755668
Anyone know if this is accurate (or how accurate) ?
twitter.com/Parker9_/status/790323912290684930
Minnesota - Mason-Dixon - Sample 625 - 20-22 Oct
Clinton 47 .. Trump 39
http://adimages.startribune.com/mcu/startribune-interstitial_v3.html?sz=/7932/website/web_test/interstitial_core&w=640&h=480&dsmid=2731921&aa=8&cl=1&ref=http://www.startribune.com/in-minnesota-poll-clinton-widens-lead-over-trump/398272671/
Washington - Elway - Sample 502 - 20-22 Oct
Clinton 48 .. Trump 31
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3173866-Elway-Poll-102416.html
Clinton 51 .. Trump 43
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FOX_2_Detroit-Mitchell_Poll_of_MI_Press_Clinton_v_Trump_10-24-16.pdf
Including the EdStone...
We are pleased to welcome @michaelgove, who will chair the advisory board on this programme. https://t.co/BTsmU5B4OJ
But seriously, there's been stories about all parties and 2015 election expenses, which suggests that urgent clarity is required from the Electoral Commission before the next election. I would suggest more detail on classifications of spending, and a helpdesk operating during the election period so the parties can have edge cases or stunts cleared in advance - but backed up with draconian fines (10x the spending?) for subsequent misdemeanours.
I use Birmingham Airport quite a bit, but would use it alot more if there was a greater range of routes. It seems to me a very underutilised facility considering it has excellent fast rail links to London and the NW, as well as to its own hinterland. Surely encouraging a bit more long and medium haul from Birmingham would be a good use of investment.
http://fortune.com/2016/10/24/donald-trump-campaign-facebook-live/
The nightly live stream provides the campaign a way to get around the mainstream media, which Trump has routinely attacked during the election, Epshteyn told Wired.
“We all know how strong the left wing media bias is,” he said. “This is us delivering our message to voters. It has nothing to do with Trump TV. It’s about using 21st century technology and communication in a way that’s effective.”
The irony is that when the new runway opens, Zac's constituents will have *fewer* planes flying overhead, as the planned expansion is north of the existing airport.
* I may have a small financial interest.
Gosh. We have a newspaper with investigative journalists. Good work, Telegraph.
Mr. Sandpit, I've been using Open Office since changing from XP to 7. After a few small problems (took me bloody ages to discover how to change from straight to curly apostrophes/speech marks) it's worked fine. About to discover how well it handles formatting e-books (obviously that's a rather niche interest).
Questions for CCHQ would be:
1. How well would an official Conservative do running against Zac (and against everyone else)?
2. How much would splitting the Con vote risk letting the Lib Dems in?
3. How much of a loss would it be to have Zac returned as an independent?
My own solution, if Zac is willing to run with it, would be for the Tories to nominate him again. If he won't, then give him a clear run.
And yes, I have changed my mind on this.
I still wonder whether ZG himself will wimp out and delay his decision on the basis that today's decision is actually not that, but merely a recommendation subject to consultation.
Keith Vaz has put himself on the Commons Justice committee despite an on-going probe.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3867996/No-wonder-call-Mr-Vazeline-Weeks-kicked-Home-Affairs-committee-Keith-Vaz-puts-JUSTICE-committee.html#ixzz4O4wd3Z4m