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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson – the man who was overstated in every final p

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson – the man who was overstated in every final poll ahead of the 2012 London Mayoral election

Just before the Easter weekend we reported on a new YouGov poll that had a Boris-led Tory party level pegging with an EdM LAB one when the named leader voting intention question was put.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited April 2013
    “Remember how Ken ran him so close?” - Vaguely.

    The two things that stick in the mind from last year's Mayoral election are Boris beating Ken (again), and the LibDem’s Brian Paddick vote collapse, which saw him beaten into fourth place behind Jenny Jones for the Green party.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The last thing the Tories need is another Etonian as leader.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 3rd April - CON 33%, LAB 41%, LD 9%, UKIP 11%; APP -33
  • IHWIHW Posts: 8
    Boris is highly ambitious and widely popular, precisely because he is not in Westminster and not in government: our political leaders are despised as never before and Boris, with his sense of fun and reputation as a maverick, is far more in tune with the public mood than most MPs or Ministers.

    But his back history and (again) precisely because of his 'loose cannon' reputation and approach to his job, he's completely unsuited to be a PM - he's a figurehead, not a team captain (IMO).

    No - the next Conservative PM is already in the Commons, already showing they are capable of taking on The Establishment view of their Department's role: not managed decline but a genuinely fresh approach to what is possible, what is needed, and what can be in place by 2015.

    So, forget Boris, despite his many appearances in the media and frenzied speculation by those who have a clear anti-Cameroon axe to grind (though there may be betting opportunities resulting from all this attention) and look towards Hammond, May and Gove as the Top Three (maybe with Hague too) who will fill what are usually called The Great Offices of State.

    All have the right personal background, right credentials with the membership (and, crucially, with UKIP!), and shown skill and determination in office to be able to lay claim to be LoTO/PM. They all also have the necessarily dour media image for what will be a truly dreadful period of government: the one when REAL cuts to Welfare, public service and the size of the State will be implemented.

    The fun lies in predicting which posts they'll each fill!

    If Labour win in 2015, there are two options, I believe:
    The application of Ballsian economics causes a collapse in sterling, a hike in interest rates and widespread bankruptcies; the arrival of the IMF and overnight imposed cuts in spending: Labour's reputation for economic competence is irredeemably destroyed
    or
    PM Milliband reins in Balls sufficiently, and the rate of increase in State spending is limited: some genuine cuts are made at the margins (no Trident replacement? Euro joined? Pension age raised to 70, not 68?) and the country staggers on for up to five years, becoming ever more deeply into debt and a true economic hell-hole. Labour becomes increasingly unpopular and is seen as economically inept, rather than utterly incompetent.

    In either event, the position of an incoming Conservative government in 2020 would be both difficult, in terms of what has to be done, and easy, since there truly would be No Alternative, and the country would be grimly prepared for the serious sacrifices required.

    The economic problem lies not with the electorate who understand where we are, but within Whitehall and Westminster, where those employed there are in full denial mode, all determined to pass the buck and delay the inevitable just long enough to allow The Other Lot to be in power when it all falls apart: a policy that has characterised Europe, if not the entire West, for the better part of a decade now. Since well before 2007/8, an imminent economic and social collapse was inevitable (hence Blair leaving office in 2007 on the crest of the economic wave - exquisite timing!)

    Will Boris stand for London Mayor for a third term?
    Or become an EU Commissioner?
    Or become a PCC somewhere?
    Or an MEP?
    Or stand for/be appointed to some other public office (eg post-Leveson Press Tsar)?

    Or return to being a mere backbench MP in 2015, but as the figurehead of a large faction within the Westminster party and hoping to be crowned LoTO > PM?

    (there would then be a concerted 'Stop Boris' candidate in 2015 around whom many MPs would coalesce, as with Major v Heseltine in 1991 - who also had wayward, over-long, blonde hair, though he's not an OE!)

    I'd suggest it all depends on what fun he'd like to have and the money he will be able to earn wherever he goes - and just how much time he wishes to spend at home with his children now they are older: he clearly loves London, which might be a significant factor.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    Why does no-one ever talk about the 2015 election resulting in a wholly inconclusive result, necessitating another election within 18 months?

    It seems like quite a strong possibility to me.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    YouGov

    Of 60+ voters only 4% would not vote and 16% support UKIP.

    Also only 35% of 2010 LDs would vote LD.
  • NoSpaceNameNoSpaceName Posts: 132
    edited April 2013
    What I remember about the 2012 mayoral race was that Boris won, despite a huge swing away from the Conservatives since the 2008 election. Brand Boris >> Brand Conservative.

    I agree that one should be wary of hypothetical polling, but I reckon the 2012 election is a massive plus for Boris, despite the mismatch with the polls.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Boris is really heir to Dave, not just in the Eton/Oxford/Bullingdon stakes but more importantly he lacks attention to detail. Whether that really matters, especially in Opposition (does anyone know, let alone care, if Ed Miliband knows every dot and comma of Labour's unannounced policies?) is by no means certain. If Boris stands for leader after a 2015 election defeat, he will probably be the right man for the job. The job being to win a 2020 election.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited April 2013
    “Boris is really heir to Dave”

    Nonsense, the breakdown of the poll OGH quotes reveals this little snippet for ‘Best Leader’

    Con: Cameron 58, Boris 29.
    LibD: Cameron 47, Boris 34.
    Lab: Cameron 23, Boris 43.
    UKIP: Cameron 21, Boris 51.

    So, replacing Cameron with Boris would succeed in pissing off the very people who would vote for the party, - Much to the amusement of those who have decided not to...!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    AndyJS said:

    Why does no-one ever talk about the 2015 election resulting in a wholly inconclusive result, necessitating another election within 18 months?

    It seems like quite a strong possibility to me.

    If the Tories lose power in 2015 the resulting civil war could tear the party apart. It looks to me very much like a Labour 1979 scenario.


  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    @Tim

    Do you think Theresa May would sort out the Tories' female vote problem?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    That really was a shocking polling performance wasn't it? Populus out by 9%! I can't do the maths but that shouldn't happen in a million or more times.

    It shows to me the limitations of personality politics. Boris is popular, even amongst Labour voters, but that does not mean that they will vote for him. And there is the small detail of him not even being in the Commons.

    The thing that I find most alarming is the number of natural tories who think it might be alright to give Labour a go in 2015 by mucking about with UKIP etc, principally as a means of getting rid of Cameron. The last time the tories lost power it took them 13 years to regain it and the country was almost destroyed. I very much hope there is a greater sense of focus and urgency in the right by 2015. This country really cannot afford a Labour government for a long, long time, not until the current generation of Brownites have left the stage.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,968
    "Remember how Ken ran him so close"

    Indeed, I was on Ken at some tremendous odds.
  • I think BoJo would be a great PM. He has the ability to challenge the status quo and is clearly not afraid to make decisions. Cameron has his heart very much in the right place and the Oborne article in today's Telegraph highlights some of the vital reform work that is underway. But Dave is a wimp and a ditherer.

    Many would be sirprised by how good a PM BoJO would make. He is no fool and the jolly bonmoie largely an act.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    tim said:

    The big problem for the Tories, Dave's women problem, is slightly ameliorated by Boris, in the poll Mike quotes he has an eight point lead over Cameron among women..

    But he doesn't shift voting intention more than among men: (M/F)

    Cameron: 31/36
    Johnson: 31/37

    As has been pointed out, Boris fans are among Labour/UKIP voters:

    Best leader - Johnson lead vs Cameron

    Con: -19
    Lab: +20
    LD: -13
    UKIP: +30

    If Boris is the answer its the wrong question.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,968
    Complete car crash for some whiny Labour MP on Radio 4 over welfare.

    This kneejerk welfare cultism that some Labour supporters have just makes more widespread the memes 'Labour loves layabouts' and 'Socialists support scroungers'.

    Their whole mentality of everything is the envy of the world, nothing must be criticized and the only answer to problems is to spend more money will make them look like out of touch defenders of a rotten system by the end of the decade.

    In much the same way those supporters of nationalised industries and union domination did during the 1970s.

    The echoes have been remarked on frequently both here and elsewhere.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Boris Johnson beating Ken Livingstone twice was a truly impressive electoral achievement, given the demographic profile of London. Opinion pollsters getting the detail of the second of those elections wrong reflects only on them.

    As for Boris for Prime Minister, the pollsters' results may be faulty, but the bigger problem is that it revolves around name recognition rather than getting the public's considered views on his suitability for the role.

    One point that should be scotched: David Cameron may be more popular with Conservative supporters than Boris Johnson, but the question is not who Conservative supporters would prefer but whether they would still support a Boris Johnson-led Conservative party that was able to attract other supporters. (The polling seems to suggest that by and large they would.) Some of the pb Tories are falling into the same logical trap that led to Iain Duncan Smith being chosen as leader.

    Incidentally, I think the Conservatives would be nuts to replace David Cameron with Boris Johnson or anyone else. But they do have form for being nuts.
  • RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    I''m going to throw in a scenario here which might make a bet on Cameron's Conservatives a worthwhile flutter. OGH take note?

    Back in 1981 Margaret Thatcher was deeply unpopular. She was implementing cuts and reforms to institutions that were creating major discontent. One of those cuts was in defence, which the Argentinians took as a cue to invade a little known group of islands 8000 miles from Britain. The resulting 1982 war created a wave of nationalist fervour that saw Thatcher squaring up to a left-wing Labour leader and winning a landslide victory.

    Roll on 30 years and we have a Gov't that is implementing cuts and reforms to institutions that are creating major discontent. 8000 kms away a nation is threatening to attack another, and drag the US into it. OK so North and South Korea aren't British sovereign territory but the potential for pulling us in to a show of strength is undoubtedly there. It's not the Gulf War yet, but there's a significant situation developing.

    Were there to be an escalation of conflict the potential for Cameron to show his tough side is there. And we all know how many of the tabloids enjoy a bit of nationalist fervour. Is the scenario of a post-conflict Cameron wave worth a flutter? I think so.

    (And NB for the record I'm a Labour supporter)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited April 2013
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,968
    "I think the Conservatives would be nuts to replace David Cameron with Boris Johnson or anyone else."

    Cameron wont be replaced.

    It is vital for the Conservatives that Cameron and his clique get responsibility for the defeat of 2015.

    So he'll be weakened and undermined but remain in place to take the blame and then it will be byelections in Witney and Tatton and possibly Dorset West and Horsham. Which will at least give the Conservatives a chance to return to Westminster some of the more impressive defeated MPs of 2015.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,968
    "Were there to be an escalation of conflict the potential for Cameron to show his tough side is there. And we all know how many of the tabloids enjoy a bit of nationalist fervour. Is the scenario of a post-conflict Cameron wave worth a flutter? I think so."

    LOL

    How precisely is Cameron going to show his tough side in Korea?

    Order one of our carrier battlegroups to launch strikes on Pyonyang? I think I detect a potential problem with that possibility.

    Not that anybody would be bothered in any case.

    A more likely scenario to move votes would be Falklands II - though we'd be more likely to lose than win. Which really would make Cameron the reverse of Thatcher in Conservative history.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013

    If the Tories lose power in 2015 the resulting civil war could tear the party apart. It looks to me very much like a Labour 1979 scenario.

    Are you suggesting that the incompetent fops decision to make a cast iron pledge to hold an IN/OUT referendum on the EU might have been a desperate master strategy that could rebound on a tory party split into BOO and those in favour of staying IN?

    Hard to believe.

    I'm sure the next tory leadership contest won't be obsessed over Europe. It never has before.
    Nor will the various factions fight over the various policy positions on keeping the referendum pledge and whether the party would campaign to stay OUT or IN.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    sorry @Tim

    but I am going to have to keep calling you on this. Dave's gender gap is "small". Not big. It is "small and consistent" as described by Anthony West in the piece you yourself linked to to prove your point.

    Here it is again.

    ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7209


    "Small". So please, can you stop calling it big.

    thx
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Don't think Boris's appeal stretches that far up the M1 quite frankly.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited April 2013
    DavidL said:

    The last time the tories lost power it took them 13 years to regain it and the country was almost destroyed. I very much hope there is a greater sense of focus and urgency in the right by 2015. This country really cannot afford a Labour government for a long, long time, not until the current generation of Brownites have left the stage.

    If the Conservatives had won in 1997, we'd still not have avoided the global economic meltdown and we'd be in the Euro.
  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    DavidL said:


    The thing that I find most alarming is the number of natural tories who think it might be alright to give Labour a go in 2015 by mucking about with UKIP etc, principally as a means of getting rid of Cameron. .

    Frankly DavidL the conservative party have been a complete waste of space since they decided that the people they really wanted to be was new labour. Currently millibrand and Cameron could meet up and swap manifesto's for the next election and nobody would notice.

    Both parties are europhile, both are wastrels when it comes to the public purse and both have a misguided attachement to social democracy.

  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited April 2013
    @IHW

    Your suggestion of Boris as an EU Commissioner is an attractive one.

    He speaks French, but would probably address them in Latin or Greek and his irreverent attitude to institutions like the EU could well sweep away a lot of its cherished cobwebs and even bring about some degree of reform.

    Unfortunately the timing appears to be wrong for such an appointment.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    The big problem for the Tories, Dave's women problem

    It isn't. Such as it is that's more of a symptom of their far bigger problem.

    This one.

    image

    Incompetence and Osbrowne.

    As long as Osbrowne is there as a AAA liability the tories 2015 election campaign is doomed to be a farce since it will be dominated by the economy. Even Cammie knows Osbrowne must be kept from the cameras as much as possible during an election campaign because of his toxicity to the voters. That's what happened in 2010 and he's even more toxic now.


  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Interesting Martin Kettle article on the implications of yesterday's "class survey" on our three main parties:

    "On reflection it is hardly surprising that the parties struggle as a whole to do an adequate job of representing the new classes which have evolved in partly post-industrial Britain. Since the three old parties are rooted in class identities which together now only account for 39% of the population, they have set themselves up to be unrepresentative, unpopular and ineffective.

    Which is precisely how it has now turned out. Unless political parties recognise that they have to adapt and form coalitions across class lines, old and new, they will go on failing. If the sociologists are even nearly right about the kind of Britain we have become, the parties are overwhelmingly stuck in a country that no longer exists. The future belongs to the party that changes. Seven into three doesn't go, either in maths or in politics."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/03/seven-into-three-doesnt-go-maths-of-failure
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    OK so North and South Korea aren't British sovereign territory but the potential for pulling us in to a show of strength is undoubtedly there.

    Nothing brings the voters flocking back like losing a war with China.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    @Tim

    Eastleigh, Schmeastleigh. Careful you'll fall off your pinhead.

    Here it is in a (the big) picture:

    image

    "Small but consistent".
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Nick Palmer, FPT,

    Actually, I can confirm I detest Abba's music more than the lyrics: I've never been one for cheesy pop hooks be it the Spice Girls or the Village People, and Abba's ingrain themselves in your skull more than most.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    On topic, I suspect the polling failure / late swing was more to do with left-leaning voters having a hard time committing to voting for Ken, or being shy of admitting it to pollsters.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    BenM said:

    Don't think Boris's appeal stretches that far up the M1 quite frankly.

    Boris vs Cameron shift in Con VI:

    London: +9
    Rosouth: +6
    Mids/Wales: +3
    North: +6
    Scot: +2

    None of it from Labour - virtually all from "other" - almost certainly UKIP


  • On the Korean front, Thatcher got a boost because our armed forces kicked the arse of the Argies. I can't see Cameron getting a similar boost when we get ours kicked by the Chinese Army.
    Its all well and good bossing around the likes of Iraq, Libya and some Somali pirates, but I'd like to believe our political leaders wouldn't think tweaking the tail of the Chinese dragon was suitable sport.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    tim said:

    Lost Eastleigh to the Lib Dems by 18% among women

    You don't think UKIP might have had any influence on the Con vote in Eastleigh?

    Or is it just your pet meme?

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited April 2013
    Financier said:

    [The] suggestion of Boris as an EU Commissioner is an attractive one.

    Commissioner jobs are for detail people, not grand-standers. He wouldn't accomplish anything. Except possibly if he was in charge of the whole thing, which he wouldn't be.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    IDS £53/wk quiet man update

    Over 400,000 people have signed the petition.

    Triumph for the fops! ;^)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Boris won't be standing in 2015 , probably will never be PM.

    Distinct change of mood in the air I feel, welfare, budget, education - Oborne might be onto something. Certainly the left seem uncomfortable considering their nailed on poll position.

  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    edited April 2013
    Japan 30 year yield at lowest ever.

    Japan has 200pc+ debt to GDP.

    So low yields on UK debt nothing to do with Osborne's flailing about in No11.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    George Osborne's speech "worst ever made":

    http://redearedrabbit.com/2013/04/03/the-worst-speech-ever-made/
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Financier said:

    [The] suggestion of Boris as an EU Commissioner is an attractive one.

    Commissioner jobs are for detail people, not grand-standers. He wouldn't accomplish anything. Except possibly if he was in charge of the whole thing, which he wouldn't be.
    Dan Hannan would be a good choice.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ben - you've started a blog ? Good effort and good luck.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    @Carlotta

    "As has been pointed out, Boris fans are among Labour/UKIP voters:"

    That makes sense and I can see the electoral significance of it. I'm struggling to understand the significance of Dave's problem with women whether real or imagined. It's not like a woman's vote counts double
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited April 2013

    OK so North and South Korea aren't British sovereign territory but the potential for pulling us in to a show of strength is undoubtedly there.

    Nothing brings the voters flocking back like losing a war with China.
    By all accounts, China is fed up with North Korea. They'd probably be happy to let us spend the blood and treasure to sort the problem out.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    edited April 2013

    Interesting Martin Kettle article on the implications of yesterday's "class survey" on our three main parties:

    "On reflection it is hardly surprising that the parties struggle as a whole to do an adequate job of representing the new classes which have evolved in partly post-industrial Britain. Since the three old parties are rooted in class identities which together now only account for 39% of the population, they have set themselves up to be unrepresentative, unpopular and ineffective.

    Which is precisely how it has now turned out. Unless political parties recognise that they have to adapt and form coalitions across class lines, old and new, they will go on failing. If the sociologists are even nearly right about the kind of Britain we have become, the parties are overwhelmingly stuck in a country that no longer exists. The future belongs to the party that changes. Seven into three doesn't go, either in maths or in politics."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/03/seven-into-three-doesnt-go-maths-of-failure

    I haven't read that article but the survey was interesting. Whether the sociologists have just done something to justify time and money I don't know, but it fits my own view of the steady disunity and breakdown of traditional voting groups.

    It's another reason (fitting in with distrust and new technologies) why we will never again have a majority (single party) government because the national parties struggle to represent the variety within Britain today.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Millsy said:

    Interesting Martin Kettle article on the implications of yesterday's "class survey" on our three main parties:

    "On reflection it is hardly surprising that the parties struggle as a whole to do an adequate job of representing the new classes which have evolved in partly post-industrial Britain. Since the three old parties are rooted in class identities which together now only account for 39% of the population, they have set themselves up to be unrepresentative, unpopular and ineffective.

    Which is precisely how it has now turned out. Unless political parties recognise that they have to adapt and form coalitions across class lines, old and new, they will go on failing. If the sociologists are even nearly right about the kind of Britain we have become, the parties are overwhelmingly stuck in a country that no longer exists. The future belongs to the party that changes. Seven into three doesn't go, either in maths or in politics."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/03/seven-into-three-doesnt-go-maths-of-failure

    I haven't read that article but the survey was interesting. Whether the sociologists have just done something to justify time and money I don't know, but it fits my own view of the steady disunity and breakdown of traditional voting groups.

    It's another reason (fitting in with distrust and new technologies) why we will never again have a majority government because the national parties struggle to represent the variety within Britain today.
    I thought the BBC massively overstated the authority of what they only mentioned quietly was their own research. They said things like class used to be about what job you have but now it's about social and cultural capital, which seemed to be an arbitrary input decision they made to base new classes on this metric they themselves invented.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,968
    "Triumph for the fops"

    Whatever you think of IDS, he isn't a fop.

    As an ex military man I'm sure he could survive on £53pw if he had to.

    But of course he doesn't have to becuase he's got himself a job.

    Perhaps we should extend the game and challenge Labour MPs to survive on the average earnings of their constituents?

    Or Mirror journalists and Guardian columnists to survive on the average earnings of their readers?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    I think the closeness of the result compared with the polls reflected Labour's ground game in London. The party is vastly more organised in the capital than anywhere else I've been, and I've helped in by-elections all over Britain. A Livingstone ward canvass session in inner London typically had 30 people split by a crisply efficient organiser into six teams of five and an entire polling district would be covered in one session. The polling day operation was remarkable. You just don't get that outside London, and although I didn't see the Tory operation at close hand I don't think it was quite as good.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    Financier said:

    [The] suggestion of Boris as an EU Commissioner is an attractive one.

    Commissioner jobs are for detail people, not grand-standers. He wouldn't accomplish anything. Except possibly if he was in charge of the whole thing, which he wouldn't be.
    Can you give examples of what any of the present commissioners have achieved - especially Catherine Ashton with her named office of 26 people as well as the unnamed?

    Boris can pick up detail if he wishes, but I would be looking for him to change the mood of the EU and to start asking publicly very awkward questions - the EU would find it very hard to silence him.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Can't see Boris as PM but he certainly wants it; with Gove as wingman and Rupert on board.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    Socrates said:

    By all accounts, China is fed up with North Korea. They'd probably be happy to let us spend the blood and treasure to sort the problem out.

    Not that fed up. Nor, it would seem, that happy to see the U.S. military buildup either around their backdoor, curiously enough.
    Callidora Beach™ ‏@CallidoraBeach 2h

    MEAN WHILE > US officials say military buildup in China related to N. Korea tensions, tanks spotted http://pulse.me/s/kbmqK #tcot
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    People who think Global Warming is a hoax in PPP Polling top ten conspiracies:

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/04/conspiracy-theory-poll-results-.html
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    Boris as Commissioner would be a laugh, but it would be seen as exactly that by the Commission, one of the most sober institutions in the world - it'd be like putting him on the management committee of the Engineering Research Council. They'd make him the Commisioner for Paperclips and his influence would be the square root of f all.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795



    Perhaps we should extend the game and challenge Labour MPs to survive on the average earnings of their constituents?

    Or Mirror journalists and Guardian columnists to survive on the average earnings of their readers?

    Labour MPs, Mirror and Guardian journalists aren't insisting on cutting the incomes of the poor.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    So only 4% of the total number Labour voters in 2010 have signed this petition - wooo !
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Kelvin McKenzie gets off to a punchy start with his new Telegraph column

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/9969634/Politics-should-be-left-out-of-the-classroom-Mrs-Blower.html

    "Fewer hours in the classroom, more time in the staff room, higher pay. Is that all?

    Most teachers seem to think work is something you do between your sick days and your holidays."
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    @ Nick Palmer
    I didn't see the Tory operation at close hand I don't think it was quite as good.

    Thing is, though, as opposed to "normal" canvassing, people on the (actual) Clapham omnibus knew the candidates. And both Boris and Ken inspired not only a strong reaction, one way or the other, but a familiarity and ownership that, as you are aware, is simply non-existent on other polling occasions.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    BenM said:

    People who think Global Warming is a hoax in PPP Polling top ten conspiracies:

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/04/conspiracy-theory-poll-results-.html

    From those 'conspiracies': "Just 5% of voters believe that Paul McCartney actually died in 1966" - Guess I'm in that crackpot now then as I thought he was still alive.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013
    BenM said:

    Labour MPs, Mirror and Guardian journalists aren't insisting on cutting the incomes of the poor.

    Indeed not, you've put your finger on the crucial point: Labour MPs, Mirrror and Guardian journalists are still, even now, with a Labour government possibly coming in just over two years time, in total denial about the deficit and merely carping about any measure, no matter how innocuous, to tackle it.

    You might have added BBC editors and correspondents to your list as well. Can anyone remember when they last heard the BBC do a piece where anyone argued that more savings should be made in any area of government expenditure?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013

    "Triumph for the fops"

    Whatever you think of IDS, he isn't a fop.

    He was a complete and utter disaster for the tories since you appear to have forgotten.
    His own MPs booted him out before an election so 'formidable' was he.

    As an ex military man I'm sure he could survive on £53pw if he had to.

    Eric Joyce is an ex-military man and was was the first MP to claim more than £1 million cumulatively in expenses. So much for that being a guarantee of 'quality' or frugality.

    But of course he doesn't have to becuase he's got himself a job.

    Perhaps we should extend the game and challenge Labour MPs to survive on the average earnings of their constituents?

    Or Mirror journalists and Guardian columnists to survive on the average earnings of their readers?

    Yes, he's an MP in the cabinet. Want to know who the public trust almost as little as tabloid journos including the Mirror Sun Mail Express etc.? MPs.

    By all means start your own petition to see if all MPs and journos could survive on £53/wk.
    That would be entertaining indeed. :)
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    @BillGates
    .@George_Osborne: Thank You for your support on UK foreign aid. The impact on lives saved will be tremendous.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Mick_Pork said:

    Socrates said:

    By all accounts, China is fed up with North Korea. They'd probably be happy to let us spend the blood and treasure to sort the problem out.

    Not that fed up. Nor, it would seem, that happy to see the U.S. military buildup either around their backdoor, curiously enough.
    Callidora Beach™ ‏@CallidoraBeach 2h

    MEAN WHILE > US officials say military buildup in China related to N. Korea tensions, tanks spotted http://pulse.me/s/kbmqK #tcot


    I see this another way. They just want to protect their own border should the regime collapse.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Deficit reduction has ceased tim ? Evidence ?

    Avery has pwned you on this before.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Financier said:

    Financier said:

    [The] suggestion of Boris as an EU Commissioner is an attractive one.

    Commissioner jobs are for detail people, not grand-standers. He wouldn't accomplish anything. Except possibly if he was in charge of the whole thing, which he wouldn't be.
    Can you give examples of what any of the present commissioners have achieved - especially Catherine Ashton with her named office of 26 people as well as the unnamed?

    Boris can pick up detail if he wishes, but I would be looking for him to change the mood of the EU and to start asking publicly very awkward questions - the EU would find it very hard to silence him.
    Someone like Dan Hannan would be far more effective at probing the EU's flaws.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    Socrates said:

    I see this another way. They just want to protect their own border should the regime collapse.


    There's that and the possiblity of China wanting to move in sharpish to secure the N.Korea Nuclear installations etc. should it get calamitous.

    Yet they have backed up N.Korea signalling they will stand by treaties and with them in any war. I agree they probably would prefer not to but they can hardly back down and dump them without causing huge loss of face for them and even more chaos and instability as who knows what the paranoid N.Korea leadership would do then? Nothing good I imagine.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    edited April 2013
    It's coming to something when Tories are all over twitter following a welcome +ve services PMI (at 52.4) crowing that the UK will avoid a triple dip recession.

    What happened to rebalancing?

    Edit: Uh-oh

    @WilliamsonChris
    #PMI is good news but possiblity of falling gov’t output and North Sea oil & gas production could tip the balance to another GDP fall in Q1

    Edit 2 - first Q1 prediction:

    @WilliamsonChris
    Services #PMI rise from 51.8 to 52.4 suggests services GDP +0.2-0.3% in Q1 after 0.1% fall in Q4 http://twitpic.com/cgum9i
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    BenM said:

    People who think Global Warming is a hoax in PPP Polling top ten conspiracies:

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/04/conspiracy-theory-poll-results-.html

    Ben, Paddy Power's arctic sea ice record minima in 2013 @ 2.63 - value or not ?

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    O/T: Idle thought prompted by the light-hearted exchanges with Socrates on Abba: is there are published research on WHY people like music, and what they get out of it? I suspect it varies enormously. I like it basically to keep me bouncing through life - the more boring whatever I'm doing (e.g. a 50-page translation on engineering), the more I like to have some Europop/disco in the background: it makes me feel cheerful and energised. I have an uncle who only likes early music with traditional instruments, for the sense of peace and purity that he says it gives him. Naturally there is no music whatever that we both like. But rather than recite anecdotes, is there any systematic research?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    From that 'hoax' page

    "29% of voters believe aliens exist"

    How is this a conspiracy theory, I certainly think that aliens are more likely than not to exist - however due to the vast distances of space and the relatively slow speed we (Or they) could travel across it it is unlikely we will meet, certainly not in any of our lifetimes on this board.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013

    is there any systematic research?

    Offhand I think there's been some on pattern recognition and the effects of harmony with musical phrases 'completing' in a way that stimulates the brain but that's an overly simplistic summary TBH and there's far more research and theories than that.

    On mood I think there's been some study on BPS and tones/discordance

  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Mick_Pork said:

    IDS £53/wk quiet man update

    Over 400,000 people have signed the petition.

    Triumph for the fops! ;^)

    Be fair, IDS said he was searching for jobs on am Armstrad computer in 1992. I mentioned this to an IT friend and he collapsed on the floor laughing.

  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has delivered a tough assessment of the Republic of Ireland's economic problems.

    In its latest report reviewing the Irish bail-out, it criticised the "inadequate progress" of Irish banks.

    This was in dealing with non-performing loans and tackling home repossessions.

    The IMF is also concerned that Irish banks are still losing money even before putting cash aside to cover those bad loans.

    While acknowledging the progress that Ireland has so far made, the IMF warned that more needed to be done in dealing with banking issues including home repossessions.

    It said that high unemployment could lead to the state's debts becoming unsustainable if growth forecasts were missed.

    BBC NI's Dublin correspondent Shane Harrison said: "With the Republic of Ireland due to leave its bail-out programme at the end of this year, this latest IMF report will be seen by many as a reality check."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22024512
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    Pulpstar said:

    certainly not in any of our lifetimes on this board.

    We do tend to view time from our own perspective. The science of senesance/longevity is not particularly far advanced yet there have already been big leaps in the average lifespan and that will almost certainly continue. By just how much we simply do not know. So the space barrier will always remain vast yet the time required to cross it may not always seem such an impossible barrier for future generations down the line. Or even other technologies should they exist elsewhere.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited April 2013
    Mick_Pork said:

    Pulpstar said:

    certainly not in any of our lifetimes on this board.

    We do tend to view time from our own perspective. The science of senesance/longevity is not particularly far advanced yet there have already been big leaps in the average lifespan and that will almost certainly continue. By just how much we simply do not know. So the space barrier will always remain vast yet the time required to cross it may not always seem such an impossible barrier for future generations down the line. Or even other technologies should they exist elsewhere.

    Deep freeze/ark tech is still some way off ^^; And err we've not even got a person to Mars yet, still some way to go to an alpha centauri mission !

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,681

    "Were there to be an escalation of conflict the potential for Cameron to show his tough side is there. And we all know how many of the tabloids enjoy a bit of nationalist fervour. Is the scenario of a post-conflict Cameron wave worth a flutter? I think so."

    LOL

    How precisely is Cameron going to show his tough side in Korea?

    Order one of our carrier battlegroups to launch strikes on Pyonyang? I think I detect a potential problem with that possibility.

    Not that anybody would be bothered in any case.

    A more likely scenario to move votes would be Falklands II - though we'd be more likely to lose than win. Which really would make Cameron the reverse of Thatcher in Conservative history.

    Double LOL, we hardly have the kit to fight in our own backyard, he can threaten that he will ask Obama to let us fire a missile , other than that it is a joke, we could hardly beat an egg. After getting thumped in Afghanistan we should be keeping quiet and fading into the background.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    Pulpstar said:

    Deep freeze/ark tech is still some way off ^^; And err we've not even got a person to Mars yet, still some way to go to an alpha centauri mission !

    Not even necessarily that. Like I said senescence is in it's infancy as a science and it would be unwise to place any limits on it's possible future applications down the line. Generational ships are not a new idea either. I'm certainly not saying any of this will happen soon, just that there are many possiblities for future generations.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited April 2013
    Interesting - possibly why immigrants do well at school in general...

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/cristinaodone/100210423/family-is-key-to-childrens-attitude-to-school/

    "The London School of Economics, bastion of Left-of-centre thinking on all serious issues, conducted the study on disadvantaged children in England. They found that growing up in an impoverished area did not doom the children to do badly at school. What did affect their performance was family."

    "When I looked at faith schools for the Centre for Policy Studies, the prevailing attitude among sociologists (some of them at the LSE) was that these schools' success lay in cherry-picking middle-class kids.

    These academics maintained that the schools' ethos, and the values that children were learning at home from their parents, had nothing to do with the children's high academic achievements

    . Their interpretation was Marxist: it all boiled down to money. I'm glad to see they've been proved wrong."

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    No surprise really: we've known for ages that Chinese and Indian children from poor backgrounds do well at school, which shows that attitude is more important than money.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim - this report suggest that the reason for success is due to the strength of families - whether they are white, brown or green is a secondary factor.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    @Tim

    Shame on the Marxists as well who have always said that it was all about wealth.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I love the intro to Head Over Heels by Abba. Nothing else sounds quite like it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    tim said:

    Fantastic incompetence here.

    Must say I agree with you there, there seems to be no semblance of any form of 'joined-up' government these days.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Mick_Pork said:

    IDS £53/wk quiet man update

    Over 400,000 people have signed the petition.

    Triumph for the fops! ;^)

    Be fair, IDS said he was searching for jobs on am Armstrad computer in 1992. I mentioned this to an IT friend and he collapsed on the floor laughing.

    Blimey, after reading that I had to find the quote to see if it's real. Sometimes you simply have to dispair at politicians.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    trying to find a market on what will be the make up of the government after the 2015 GE e.g. Lib-Lab coalition, Lab maj etc - tried paddy, willy, laddies and betfair to no joy - anyone help ?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Owen Jones vs Guido on ITV at 11.30 re Philpott/benefits - should be entertaining..
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Cheers tim.

    4/1 on a Labour minority govt ? - horrible price.



  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    WRT London polling, in all likelihood most pollsters under-sampled ethnic minority voters, who supported Livingstone 3:1.

    WRT the gender gap, the only pollster that shows a significant difference between Conservative support among men and women is ICM. MORI, Yougov, Conres, TNS, and Opinium, give very similar levels of Conservative support among men and women. As Peter Kellner says, the gender gap is more of a hairline crack
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    tim said:

    @RobD

    Tax free subletting which doesn't count against Universal Credit, introduced as a panic measure to ease the bedroom tax, could conceivably lead to the bedroom tax costing billions

    As you said, massive incompetence! If that truly is the case they should have just not bothered with the 'bedroom tax' and saved money in the long run.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Subletting means a higher occupancy of existing housing - which is the point..
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    tim said:

    @TGOHF

    From the Mail piece.

    The children of parents who spend one extra year in education typically achieve one grade higher in two GCSEs or two grades higher in one GCSE than other pupils, it found.

    Which is clearly related to this



    Britain’s foreign-born population includes a higher proportion of people with tertiary education (broadly, university graduates and above) than in almost any other OECD country (see chart 1 for a selected list and here for the full data). Incomers are much more likely to be highly educated than native Brits, and that gap is growing.

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21568746-foreign-born-are-more-successful-britain-most-places-better-billed

    Vote UKIP for a thicker nation

    On your criteria you moved to the thick part didn't you ?
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    TGOHF said:

    tim - this report suggest that the reason for success is due to the strength of families - whether they are white, brown or green is a secondary factor.

    I am amazed that it took a survey to come up with this obvious truth.

    In most developing countries (where often the simplest of education charges a fee) the whole family sees education as the way out of a subsistence economy and a route to a more prosperous lifestyle (a bit like the UK in the 1900s-50s). Also there is rarely an economic bottom line support for the unemployed, disabled or old - if you do not work, you do not eat.

    So everyone is keen to learn and (whilst on World Bank projects in sub-Saharan Africa) I have seen children paying rapt attention in class and seizing upon any piece of information they can find and retain and the education of their children is a source of pride to their parents and community.

    So in the UK (in an electronic society where education is free and information has never been easier to source) we have truancy problems, attention problems and large numbers of children leaving school neither literate nor numerate to join their parents who often have the same lack of education and have become unemployable. So why did it all go wrong?





  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited April 2013
    TGOHF said:

    Interesting - possibly why immigrants do well at school in general...

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/cristinaodone/100210423/family-is-key-to-childrens-attitude-to-school/

    "The London School of Economics, bastion of Left-of-centre thinking on all serious issues, conducted the study on disadvantaged children in England. They found that growing up in an impoverished area did not doom the children to do badly at school. What did affect their performance was family."

    "When I looked at faith schools for the Centre for Policy Studies, the prevailing attitude among sociologists (some of them at the LSE) was that these schools' success lay in cherry-picking middle-class kids.

    These academics maintained that the schools' ethos, and the values that children were learning at home from their parents, had nothing to do with the children's high academic achievements

    . Their interpretation was Marxist: it all boiled down to money. I'm glad to see they've been proved wrong."

    Right - and this explains why making sure we filter our immigrants carefully is a good idea. It doesn't affect just the first generation coming here, but also the success of successive generations. There is clear data on how some immigrant groups do far better at school than others, so rather than just let them all in, we need to make sure we bring in the good ones and not the poor ones. This is why EU membership is a mistake - there's absolutely no screening mechanism. Things like family immigration are harder to address, but even here we can use things like income metrics to try to skew the inflow in our favour.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    tim said:

    @SeanF

    Ipsos Mori March 2013

    Labour lead, 8 among men, 19 among women

    But the Conservative vote share among men and women is identical.

    Before adjustment, the Conservatives polled 27% among men, and 26% among women. With Com Res, it was 27% among men, 29% among women. With Opinium, it was 28% each. With TNS, it was 27% among men, 26% among women. With Yougov (averaging out the past week's daily polls), it was 29% among men, 31% among women.

    ICM is the stand-out, giving the Conservatives 31% among men, and 26% among women (before adjustment).

    Averaging out the lot, gives the Conservatives 28% each, among men and women, while Labour get 37% among men, and 40% among women.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Andrew Mitchell to be next EU commissioner ?

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/04/is-andrew-mitchell-the-right-man-for-britain-in-europe/

    "It now looks almost certain that Andrew Mitchell will be our next EU Commissioner in 2014. "
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    Philpott receives a sentence of life with 15 years.

    The other two both get 17 years.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    edited April 2013

    I''m going to throw in a scenario here....

    Roll on 30 years and we have a Gov't that is implementing cuts and reforms to institutions that are creating major discontent. 8000 kms away a nation is threatening to attack another, and drag the US into it. OK so North and South Korea aren't British sovereign territory but the potential for pulling us in to a show of strength is undoubtedly there. It's not the Gulf War yet, but there's a significant situation developing.

    "Black-Bucks" are gone. Load-up a T-Boat or Astute with TacTom-IV and you have as much strike-power as half of the RAF in 1982. [When the RBS Voyager works then the Tonkas can support the strike effort with StormShadow. One wonders how much damage to a runway the BROACH warhead would do...!]
    (And NB for the record I'm a Labour supporter)
    Ah, that explains your defence insights....

This discussion has been closed.