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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nicola Sturgeon should go for a second Independence referendum

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  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277

    Jobabob said:



    Yes, there's a nasty fascism creeping in about Brexit and any of those who challenge its proponents' worldview. SeanT called Remainers traitors as a term of common abuse. Several idiots on here actually believe it.

    SeanT is SeanT - MalcolmG with richer prose. I got bored about the tenth time he had a go at me and haven't really bewen bothered since.

    But it does feel odd that Brexiteers aren't more relaxed, magnaminous, etc. I don't think they are quite sure they are relaly going to get what they want, insofar as they know what they want.
    The fact that there are a significant number of continuity Remainers working as hard as they can to frustrate the democratically-expressed will of the British people might just possibly have a little something to do with that.
    As is their right, since we live in a parliamentary democracy.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    Indigo said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Alistair said:

    If James O'Keefe told me water was wet and the sky was blue I'd be asking for corroboration from independent sources before I believed him.

    You really are the most partisan ninny - this covert footage has resulted in two very senior DNC figures getting the push - and possibly up for criminal charges.

    I'm genuinely amazed at the handwaving on here - 99% don't have a vote and yet acting like our lives depend on it.

    If I see another 'there's no voter fraud' claim, I'll :lol: - it's like claiming MPs didn't cheat their expenses.
    If its handwaving to say that a Trump election will cause us in the UK untold extra problems then I'm waving. Blowing up half the Middle East because someone sent him an offensive tweet and he was in a bad mood that day will have plenty of implications for us.
    And this waving of hands does precisely what since the number of people on this forum that have a vote in the USA can be counted on the fingers of one hand.
    Well you could argue that about a lot of the discussion on here. I can't vote in Witney, and nor can almost any other PBer I suspect. It's all potential background to the betting
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    I thought Parliament had to agree to a second referendum for it to have any validity?

    The British parliament would have to agree for it to be formally binding on Westminster. But I think they'd have a problem just ignoring it.

    I suppose they might conceivably say, "You voted to leave but your referendum is illegitimate, so we'll schedule our own", then try to game the question and the timing to make that one harder to win.

    If Sturgeon asked May to green light a new referendum and May said No, it would be an absolute gift for Sturgeon. It could even be what she is counting on.

    But what could she do with such a 'gift'? Supposing Westminster stated that there will be no further Referendum on Independence until 2035 - ie a generation after the last one! - what could Sturgeon and the SNP do in response? Given that the SNP already has 56 of the 59 Scottish seats what would Westminster have to lose from taking such a position?
  • Options

    On liberalism, the site is predominently Cameroonish, i.e. socially liberal and mildly conservative. The 25% of the population who really like Corbyn is under-represented (BJO, me, and er...) as are the hard right, though plato seems to be moving to fill the gap. The most interesting posts IMO are from the people like DavidL who one can't quite predict!

    Where do you get the claim that 25% of the population "really like Corbyn"?

    25% may be willing to vote Labour despite (not because of) Corbyn.
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I expect snowflakes to go berserk shortly

    British Army
    Being a #soldier in the jungle requires a robust sense of humour https://t.co/sr9f3OfVsE

    The image seems to have been removed :/
    Was it something to with rednecks?
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,352


    Good Morning

    I asked you a direct question last week when I joined the site that you haven't acknowledged or answered.

    You posted that there was no hypocrisy with politicians denying the population the choice between grammar schools and comprehensives while sending their own children to Grammars, and made an analogy with health provision.

    I think a better analogy would be to imagine there were hospitals that only treated patients who didn't smoke, didn't drink more than 14 units of alcohol per week, were the correct BMI & didn't take illegal drugs. These hospitals were free at the point of use & considered the equal of private hospitals, but there were very few of them about and they were concentrated in one or two counties.

    There was also a very expensive (though cheaper than private healthcare) drug on sale in certain shops, that could hoodwink the test so that even smokers, drinkers, drug takers and the morbidly obese could pass it and have access these hospitals.

    Would it be ok with you if politicians used these hospitals for themselves and their children, while refusing to allow similar hospitals to be opened in poorer areas where people living healthier lifestyles than the politicians, and those unable to afford the magic drug (private tuition), were given inferior treatment, had longer waiting lists and more crowded wards?

    Hi and (obviously belated) welcome to the site. I didn't see your message, sorry - I'm moving house and a bit infrequently on at the moment.

    In reply: no. My view is that it's reasonable for politicians to do the best for their families in the current situation, while doing everything they can to ensure that inequities in the current situation are brought to an end. Your scenario foresees the politicians doing the former but not the latter - indeed "refusing" the latter.

    I think that politicians should normally avoid buying their way to better treatment themselves (e.g. I use NHS medical and dental care), so that they experience the normal situation personally, but shouldn't project that onto their possibly apolitical families if they're in a position to help them (I have paid for private treatment a while back for a relative who was faced with a two-year waiting list for treatment for a condition causing severe suffering).

    There are always extreme cases, of course. Would I refuse private treatment if it was the only way I could save my life? Not sure.

    An attempt at an honest answer, even if fudged at the edge!
  • Options
    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    Anorak said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sturg wades into the US elections - very unstatespersonlike...

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/722430/Nicola-Sturgeon-slapped-down-by-America-and-tells-her-to-RESPECT-the-will-of-the-people

    "The SNP leader told US voters not to vote for Donald Trump ahead of the election despite her party's once cosy relationship with the presidential hopeful."

    Given how Obama's intervention in the referendum went down like a bucket of cold sick, I'm surprised she didn't see the wisdom in the STFU school of diplomacy.
    Except this isn't really about stopping US voters going trump. Obviously no trump wavering American cares what a regional politician in the UK thinks. She's doing this to play to her own supporters, who will generally hate trump. Makes her look like someone taking a stand against him.
  • Options
    Indigo said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Alistair said:

    If James O'Keefe told me water was wet and the sky was blue I'd be asking for corroboration from independent sources before I believed him.

    You really are the most partisan ninny - this covert footage has resulted in two very senior DNC figures getting the push - and possibly up for criminal charges.

    I'm genuinely amazed at the handwaving on here - 99% don't have a vote and yet acting like our lives depend on it.

    If I see another 'there's no voter fraud' claim, I'll :lol: - it's like claiming MPs didn't cheat their expenses.
    If its handwaving to say that a Trump election will cause us in the UK untold extra problems then I'm waving. Blowing up half the Middle East because someone sent him an offensive tweet and he was in a bad mood that day will have plenty of implications for us.
    And this waving of hands does precisely what since the number of people on this forum that have a vote in the USA can be counted on the fingers of one hand.
    So what? This is a politics site as well as a betting one, if you don't like people discussing politics here then that's odd to say the least.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,383

    Indigo said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Alistair said:

    If James O'Keefe told me water was wet and the sky was blue I'd be asking for corroboration from independent sources before I believed him.

    You really are the most partisan ninny - this covert footage has resulted in two very senior DNC figures getting the push - and possibly up for criminal charges.

    I'm genuinely amazed at the handwaving on here - 99% don't have a vote and yet acting like our lives depend on it.

    If I see another 'there's no voter fraud' claim, I'll :lol: - it's like claiming MPs didn't cheat their expenses.
    If its handwaving to say that a Trump election will cause us in the UK untold extra problems then I'm waving. Blowing up half the Middle East because someone sent him an offensive tweet and he was in a bad mood that day will have plenty of implications for us.
    And this waving of hands does precisely what since the number of people on this forum that have a vote in the USA can be counted on the fingers of one hand.
    So what? This is a politics site as well as a betting one, if you don't like people discussing politics here then that's odd to say the least.
    Despite the fact that we are called traiters, etc, when we discuss possible Brexit scenarios and the political implications thereof.
  • Options

    Anorak said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sturg wades into the US elections - very unstatespersonlike...

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/722430/Nicola-Sturgeon-slapped-down-by-America-and-tells-her-to-RESPECT-the-will-of-the-people

    "The SNP leader told US voters not to vote for Donald Trump ahead of the election despite her party's once cosy relationship with the presidential hopeful."

    Given how Obama's intervention in the referendum went down like a bucket of cold sick, I'm surprised she didn't see the wisdom in the STFU school of diplomacy.
    Except this isn't really about stopping US voters going trump. Obviously no trump wavering American cares what a regional politician in the UK thinks. She's doing this to play to her own supporters, who will generally hate trump. Makes her look like someone taking a stand against him.
    Plus it was a question fired at her (Would you be proud if half Scottish Trump became POTUS?) rather than her wading in.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,743

    Jobabob said:



    Yes, there's a nasty fascism creeping in about Brexit and any of those who challenge its proponents' worldview. SeanT called Remainers traitors as a term of common abuse. Several idiots on here actually believe it.

    SeanT is SeanT - MalcolmG with richer prose. I got bored about the tenth time he had a go at me and haven't really bewen bothered since.

    But it does feel odd that Brexiteers aren't more relaxed, magnaminous, etc. I don't think they are quite sure they are relaly going to get what they want, insofar as they know what they want.

    On liberalism, the site is predominently Cameroonish, i.e. socially liberal and mildly conservative. The 25% of the population who really like Corbyn is under-represented (BJO, me, and er...) as are the hard right, though plato seems to be moving to fill the gap. The most interesting posts IMO are from the people like DavidL who one can't quite predict!
    "The 25% of the population who really like Corbyn ..."

    Where does that figure come from ?
    The last relevant poll I think I saw, around 40% of Labour voters though he was "doing a good job", which would be quite a bit below 25%. If there's a more relevant poll, I apologise, but that 25% sounds a bit plucked from the air.
    Of course, I suppose it depends what you mean by "really like".
  • Options
    NorvilleRogersIIINorvilleRogersIII Posts: 39
    edited October 2016


    Good Morning

    I asked you a direct question last week when I joined the site that you haven't acknowledged or answered.

    You posted that there was no hypocrisy with politicians denying the population the choice between grammar schools and comprehensives while sending their own children to Grammars, and made an analogy with health provision.

    I think a better analogy would be to imagine there were hospitals that only treated patients who didn't smoke, didn't drink more than 14 units of alcohol per week, were the correct BMI & didn't take illegal drugs. These hospitals were free at the point of use & considered the equal of private hospitals, but there were very few of them about and they were concentrated in one or two counties.

    There was also a very expensive (though cheaper than private healthcare) drug on sale in certain shops, that could hoodwink the test so that even smokers, drinkers, drug takers and the morbidly obese could pass it and have access these hospitals.

    Would it be ok with you if politicians used these hospitals for themselves and their children, while refusing to allow similar hospitals to be opened in poorer areas where people living healthier lifestyles than the politicians, and those unable to afford the magic drug (private tuition), were given inferior treatment, had longer waiting lists and more crowded wards?

    Hi and (obviously belated) welcome to the site. I didn't see your message, sorry - I'm moving house and a bit infrequently on at the moment.

    In reply: no. My view is that it's reasonable for politicians to do the best for their families in the current situation, while doing everything they can to ensure that inequities in the current situation are brought to an end. Your scenario foresees the politicians doing the former but not the latter - indeed "refusing" the latter.

    I think that politicians should normally avoid buying their way to better treatment themselves (e.g. I use NHS medical and dental care), so that they experience the normal situation personally, but shouldn't project that onto their possibly apolitical families if they're in a position to help them (I have paid for private treatment a while back for a relative who was faced with a two-year waiting list for treatment for a condition causing severe suffering).

    There are always extreme cases, of course. Would I refuse private treatment if it was the only way I could save my life? Not sure.

    An attempt at an honest answer, even if fudged at the edge!
    Thanks for the answer, sorry if I was abrupt.

    I have to say though, it seems to stink a bit to me. If politicians think Grammar schools are such a bad thing, they should be campaigning to have the local one closed down rather than sending their children to it in my opinion. If they are so good, then let all children have the chance to go to one
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,106

    Anorak said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sturg wades into the US elections - very unstatespersonlike...

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/722430/Nicola-Sturgeon-slapped-down-by-America-and-tells-her-to-RESPECT-the-will-of-the-people

    "The SNP leader told US voters not to vote for Donald Trump ahead of the election despite her party's once cosy relationship with the presidential hopeful."

    Given how Obama's intervention in the referendum went down like a bucket of cold sick, I'm surprised she didn't see the wisdom in the STFU school of diplomacy.
    Except this isn't really about stopping US voters going trump. Obviously no trump wavering American cares what a regional politician in the UK thinks. She's doing this to play to her own supporters, who will generally hate trump. Makes her look like someone taking a stand against him.
    The other difference is that most UK voters knew who Obama was.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sturg wades into the US elections - very unstatespersonlike...

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/722430/Nicola-Sturgeon-slapped-down-by-America-and-tells-her-to-RESPECT-the-will-of-the-people

    "The SNP leader told US voters not to vote for Donald Trump ahead of the election despite her party's once cosy relationship with the presidential hopeful."

    Given how Obama's intervention in the referendum went down like a bucket of cold sick, I'm surprised she didn't see the wisdom in the STFU school of diplomacy.
    Except this isn't really about stopping US voters going trump. Obviously no trump wavering American cares what a regional politician in the UK thinks. She's doing this to play to her own supporters, who will generally hate trump. Makes her look like someone taking a stand against him.
    Getting headlines about 'mind your own business' for a politician who's made a career telling Westminster to do the same does not seem like a 'win' to me.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,654


    Good Morning

    I asked you a direct question last week when I joined the site that you haven't acknowledged or answered.

    You posted that there was no hypocrisy with politicians denying the population the choice between grammar schools and comprehensives while sending their own children to Grammars, and made an analogy with health provision.

    I think a better analogy would be to imagine there were hospitals that only treated patients who didn't smoke, didn't drink more than 14 units of alcohol per week, were the correct BMI & didn't take illegal drugs. These hospitals were free at the point of use & considered the equal of private hospitals, but there were very few of them about and they were concentrated in one or two counties.

    There was also a very expensive (though cheaper than private healthcare) drug on sale in certain shops, that could hoodwink the test so that even smokers, drinkers, drug takers and the morbidly obese could pass it and have access these hospitals.

    Would it be ok with you if politicians used these hospitals for themselves and their children, while refusing to allow similar hospitals to be opened in poorer areas where people living healthier lifestyles than the politicians, and those unable to afford the magic drug (private tuition), were given inferior treatment, had longer waiting lists and more crowded wards?

    Hi and (obviously belated) welcome to the site. I didn't see your message, sorry - I'm moving house and a bit infrequently on at the moment.

    In reply: no. My view is that it's reasonable for politicians to do the best for their families in the current situation, while doing everything they can to ensure that inequities in the current situation are brought to an end. Your scenario foresees the politicians doing the former but not the latter - indeed "refusing" the latter.
    Thanks for the answer, sorry if I was abrupt.

    I have to say though, it seems to stink a bit to me. If politicians think Grammar schools are such a bad thing, they should be campaigning to have the local one closed down rather than sending their children to it in my opinion.
    OT.

    Where are you moving from Nick. Does that mean the Eco-House will be on the market?
  • Options
    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sturg wades into the US elections - very unstatespersonlike...

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/722430/Nicola-Sturgeon-slapped-down-by-America-and-tells-her-to-RESPECT-the-will-of-the-people

    "The SNP leader told US voters not to vote for Donald Trump ahead of the election despite her party's once cosy relationship with the presidential hopeful."

    Given how Obama's intervention in the referendum went down like a bucket of cold sick, I'm surprised she didn't see the wisdom in the STFU school of diplomacy.
    Except this isn't really about stopping US voters going trump. Obviously no trump wavering American cares what a regional politician in the UK thinks. She's doing this to play to her own supporters, who will generally hate trump. Makes her look like someone taking a stand against him.
    Getting headlines about 'mind your own business' for a politician who's made a career telling Westminster to do the same does not seem like a 'win' to me.
    Well, not with Express readers.

    Which is of course a wee shame.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,864

    On liberalism, the site is predominently Cameroonish, i.e. socially liberal and mildly conservative. The 25% of the population who really like Corbyn is under-represented (BJO, me, and er...) as are the hard right, though plato seems to be moving to fill the gap. The most interesting posts IMO are from the people like DavidL who one can't quite predict!

    Where do you get the claim that 25% of the population "really like Corbyn"?

    25% may be willing to vote Labour despite (not because of) Corbyn.
    Add in Green Party voters and some Lib Dems and SNP voters, and 25% seems plausible. Of course, 65%+ don't like him, which is a problem.
  • Options
    619619 Posts: 1,784
    new Bloomberg national poll: Clinton 47%, Trump 38%, Johnson 8%, Stein 3%
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    Sean_F said:

    On liberalism, the site is predominently Cameroonish, i.e. socially liberal and mildly conservative. The 25% of the population who really like Corbyn is under-represented (BJO, me, and er...) as are the hard right, though plato seems to be moving to fill the gap. The most interesting posts IMO are from the people like DavidL who one can't quite predict!

    Where do you get the claim that 25% of the population "really like Corbyn"?

    25% may be willing to vote Labour despite (not because of) Corbyn.
    Add in Green Party voters and some Lib Dems and SNP voters, and 25% seems plausible. Of course, 65%+ don't like him, which is a problem.
    It's not just a question of liking him. He is clearly unfit to be PM. He might be a nice guy. Nick P knows him and says as much. But that's not the issue.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,951

    Pulpstar said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I expect snowflakes to go berserk shortly

    British Army
    Being a #soldier in the jungle requires a robust sense of humour https://t.co/sr9f3OfVsE

    The image seems to have been removed :/
    Was it something to with rednecks?
    No, a bunch of keyboard warriors seem to have decided camouflage is racist !
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,429
    619 said:

    new Bloomberg national poll: Clinton 47%, Trump 38%, Johnson 8%, Stein 3%

    Not looking too good for the Donald.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    May could do a lot to spike Sturgeon's guns by setting out what would be devolved from Brussels to Holyrood - Fisheries for example - you can hardly complain for decades about Westminster failing to protect Scottish fisheries in Brussels then say 'no thanks' when offered the job yourself....

    But Westminster as always will want to hold tight to any power worth having. They will offer crumbs only and only when forced to.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    Mr. B2, financial services will be difficult for Scotland, though, because of both the currency question and the issue of mostly domestic banks which will have a 92% or so non-Scottish customer base, who may prefer their money to be held by London-registered banks.

    LOL, they will be unscrewingbrass plates at breakneck speed.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Erik Eriksson, former head of RedState.com (nexus of #NeverTrumpism), says internal Georgia polling by the Republicans has them down by 5.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    Scott_P said:

    IanB2 said:

    And Brexit offers an Edinburgh inside the EU some big opportunities (assuming rUK actually leaves, rather than fall into panic if the union starts to disintegrate).

    Not really.

    If the UK leaves, and Scotland joins, with all that entails, then in 10 years Edinburgh might be able to compete with Frankfurt for some Euro business.

    It would not compete with London, for anything.
    Toom Tabard crawls out and gives his positive input
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,723


    Good Morning

    I asked you a direct question last week when I joined the site that you haven't acknowledged or answered.

    You posted that there was no hypocrisy with politicians denying the population the choice between grammar schools and comprehensives while sending their own children to Grammars, and made an analogy with health provision.


    Would it be ok with you if politicians used these hospitals for themselves and their children, while refusing to allow similar hospitals to be opened in poorer areas where people living healthier lifestyles than the politicians, and those unable to afford the magic drug (private tuition), were given inferior treatment, had longer waiting lists and more crowded wards?

    Hi and (obviously belated) welcome to the site. I didn't see your message, sorry - I'm moving house and a bit infrequently on at the moment.

    In reply: no. My view is that it's reasonable for politicians to do the best for their families in the current situation, while doing everything they can to ensure that inequities in the current situation are brought to an end. Your scenario foresees the politicians doing the former but not the latter - indeed "refusing" the latter.

    I think that politicians should normally avoid buying their way to better treatment themselves (e.g. I use NHS medical and dental care), so that they experience the normal situation personally, but shouldn't project that onto their possibly apolitical families if they're in a position to help them (I have paid for private treatment a while back for a relative who was faced with a two-year waiting list for treatment for a condition causing severe suffering).

    There are always extreme cases, of course. Would I refuse private treatment if it was the only way I could save my life? Not sure.

    An attempt at an honest answer, even if fudged at the edge!
    Thanks for the answer, sorry if I was abrupt.

    I have to say though, it seems to stink a bit to me. If politicians think Grammar schools are such a bad thing, they should be campaigning to have the local one closed down rather than sending their children to it in my opinion. If they are so good, then let all children have the chance to go to one
    Don't get that last bit.
    Grammar schools are by definition selective at age 11, the majority of kids in the area would go to a worse school. So when you say let them have a 'chance' to go you mean a say, 1 in 4 or 5 chance based on passing an exam at age 11.
    It's a quite defensible stance to be against that and still want your kid to go to the best school if they can.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    DavidL said:

    Gee thanks Alastair. The last Indy campaign was the most politically traumatic event of my life by a distance. The prospects of going through all that again just thrills me.

    I cannot wait, the sooner the better
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited October 2016
    On topic: If one accepts the premise of Alastair's article, I wonder whether the Yes side would be helped more by Brexit being seen to be going badly in economic terms, or by Brexit seeming to go well. In the former case, the Yes side would be able to say they want to refocus towards continental Europe because the UK was doing badly, but the No side would be able to point to Project Fear being Project Reality. Conversely, if Brexit seems to be going well, the leap into the dark might not seem so frightening.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,723
    619 said:

    new Bloomberg national poll: Clinton 47%, Trump 38%, Johnson 8%, Stein 3%

    Those are quite good figures for Johnson and Stein. And Clinton of course.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,106
    Alistair said:

    Erik Eriksson, former head of RedState.com (nexus of #NeverTrumpism), says internal Georgia polling by the Republicans has them down by 5.

    This story might harm the Democrats there...

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/10/18/dem-campaign-bus-dumps-waste/92391306/
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    On liberalism, the site is predominently Cameroonish, i.e. socially liberal and mildly conservative. The 25% of the population who really like Corbyn is under-represented (BJO, me, and er...) as are the hard right, though plato seems to be moving to fill the gap. The most interesting posts IMO are from the people like DavidL who one can't quite predict!

    Where do you get the claim that 25% of the population "really like Corbyn"?

    25% may be willing to vote Labour despite (not because of) Corbyn.
    Add in Green Party voters and some Lib Dems and SNP voters, and 25% seems plausible. Of course, 65%+ don't like him, which is a problem.
    Even then there's a difference between like and "really like". I'd doubt if even one in ten nationwide "really like" Corbyn.
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    Indigo said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Alistair said:

    If James O'Keefe told me water was wet and the sky was blue I'd be asking for corroboration from independent sources before I believed him.

    You really are the most partisan ninny - this covert footage has resulted in two very senior DNC figures getting the push - and possibly up for criminal charges.

    I'm genuinely amazed at the handwaving on here - 99% don't have a vote and yet acting like our lives depend on it.

    If I see another 'there's no voter fraud' claim, I'll :lol: - it's like claiming MPs didn't cheat their expenses.
    If its handwaving to say that a Trump election will cause us in the UK untold extra problems then I'm waving. Blowing up half the Middle East because someone sent him an offensive tweet and he was in a bad mood that day will have plenty of implications for us.
    And this waving of hands does precisely what since the number of people on this forum that have a vote in the USA can be counted on the fingers of one hand.
    So what? This is a politics site as well as a betting one, if you don't like people discussing politics here then that's odd to say the least.
    Despite the fact that we are called traiters, etc, when we discuss possible Brexit scenarios and the political implications thereof.
    Not by me you're not.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Indigo said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Alistair said:

    If James O'Keefe told me water was wet and the sky was blue I'd be asking for corroboration from independent sources before I believed him.

    You really are the most partisan ninny - this covert footage has resulted in two very senior DNC figures getting the push - and possibly up for criminal charges.

    I'm genuinely amazed at the handwaving on here - 99% don't have a vote and yet acting like our lives depend on it.

    If I see another 'there's no voter fraud' claim, I'll :lol: - it's like claiming MPs didn't cheat their expenses.
    If its handwaving to say that a Trump election will cause us in the UK untold extra problems then I'm waving. Blowing up half the Middle East because someone sent him an offensive tweet and he was in a bad mood that day will have plenty of implications for us.
    And this waving of hands does precisely what since the number of people on this forum that have a vote in the USA can be counted on the fingers of one hand.
    So what? This is a politics site as well as a betting one, if you don't like people discussing politics here then that's odd to say the least.
    And to endorse that point - I find the sneery attitude of so many to hearing the Trumper line. It's even worse than dismissing Corbyn for Labour leadership.

    Living in a bubble that doesn't get that mindset ... on a politics site strikes me as most strange. PB isn't Facebook where perfect life and opinion spouting gets self-esteem Likes.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    Essexit said:

    DavidL said:

    Gee thanks Alastair. The last Indy campaign was the most politically traumatic event of my life by a distance. The prospects of going through all that again just thrills me.

    Remain should have warned you that a Leave victory increased the chance of a second Indyref/an Independent Scotland.

    Oh.
    I heard the warnings and:
    a) struggle to believe that Scots would rather be governed from Brussels than Westminster
    b) in any case consider getting part of the UK out better than none at all.
    You struggle because you have not a clue on Scotland
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,383

    TOPPING said:

    Indigo said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Alistair said:

    If James O'Keefe told me water was wet and the sky was blue I'd be asking for corroboration from independent sources before I believed him.

    You really are the most partisan ninny - this covert footage has resulted in two very senior DNC figures getting the push - and possibly up for criminal charges.

    I'm genuinely amazed at the handwaving on here - 99% don't have a vote and yet acting like our lives depend on it.

    If I see another 'there's no voter fraud' claim, I'll :lol: - it's like claiming MPs didn't cheat their expenses.
    If its handwaving to say that a Trump election will cause us in the UK untold extra problems then I'm waving. Blowing up half the Middle East because someone sent him an offensive tweet and he was in a bad mood that day will have plenty of implications for us.
    And this waving of hands does precisely what since the number of people on this forum that have a vote in the USA can be counted on the fingers of one hand.
    So what? This is a politics site as well as a betting one, if you don't like people discussing politics here then that's odd to say the least.
    Despite the fact that we are called traiters, etc, when we discuss possible Brexit scenarios and the political implications thereof.
    Not by me you're not.
    No absolutely. Not saying you, the point just followed on from yours.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    Still begs the question of why Scotland would want to sign up to domination from Brussels.

    Can you give us an idea for how long it would take 'domination from Brussels' to force an indy Scotland within the EU to cede control over 2/3 of our taxation, 3/4 of welfare policy, foreign policy, defence, broadcasting, trade & industry, nuclear energy, oil, coal, gas & electricity, the constitution and immigration? Just so we know what to expect, like.
    LOL, these guys just donot understand it at all , they are so immersed in England = UK that they just cannot see we are little other than slaves.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062


    Mr. Divvie, it's worth noting that within the UK power has flowed from Westminster to Holyrood, whereas the EU has the opposite tendency of ever greater centralisation.

    Flowed? Minimal powers have been dragged incrementally from an unyielding Westminster over decades. How long will it take for Scotland within the UK to reach the level of sovereignty it would have within the EU?
    3 million years
  • Options
    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited October 2016
    OllyT said:

    Dromedary said:

    So "another referendum on the same issue" is in the air?

    One thing that hasn't changed is that Scotland has no right to belong to the EU and would have to apply for membership. Belonging to the single market but not the EU - probably meaning customs posts on the border with England - would be akin to using sterling without having a say over monetary policy. In short, it's a load of old cock, although if they wrap it in the saltire and denounce their opponents as "talking Scotland down", Sturgeon's party may be able to sell it to a large proportion of their own supporters.

    Scotland wouldn't be like Norway with the oil and the big sovereign fund.

    The SNP is full of "me me me" pork belly-chasing types who dream of getting as many grants out of the EU as politicians and their business supporters do in Ireland. That's what the EU means for them. They can dream away, but the talk of a second referendum is a waste of public money. Brexit would change so little in Scotland that the SNP's barefaced assertion that the Euref result necessitates tearing up the indyref mandate - which was very clearly to keep the union - is utterly dishonest and self-serving. If the Greens had any backbone they would bring the minority SNP government down. But they haven't and won't.

    How can you say that being removed from the EU and the single market against their will does not constitute a major change?
    There is an error in your question. Scotland is not a member of the EU, any more than London or Cambridge is. The question of whether it should or shouldn't be assumes it is independent or about to become so. It's a salesman's trick. The will of the Scottish people is that Scotland should not be independent.

    At the time of the indyref, David Cameron had already promised a referendum on Brexit. Everyone knew the Euref result could go either way. The possibility of a vote for Brexit was even mentioned in the Scottish government's proposal for independence. So during the indyref campaign the SNP urged Scottish people to think about the implications of a possible Brexit. They're lying when they pretend the Euref result came like a bolt out of the blue.

    As for whether the territory of Scotland should be within the single market after Brexit - either if Scotland is still in Britain or if it has left - that is a very minor issue because the amount of trade that Scotland does with EU27 is paltry compared to how much it does with rUK. Putting custom posts on the Tweed and on the A74(M) in order to belong to a single market with EU27 would be a shameful act of cutting Scotland's nose to spite its face.

    I'm quite sure the SNP would say that what I just said is "scaremongering", but the fact is that if A is in a single market with B and C is not, then A cannot be in a single market with C.
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679


    Good Morning


    Hi and (obviously belated) welcome to the site. I didn't see your message, sorry - I'm moving house and a bit infrequently on at the moment.

    In reply: no. My view is that it's reasonable for politicians to do the best for their families in the current situation, while doing everything they can to ensure that inequities in the current situation are brought to an end. Your scenario foresees the politicians doing the former but not the latter - indeed "refusing" the latter.

    I think that politicians should normally avoid buying their way to better treatment themselves (e.g. I use NHS medical and dental care), so that they experience the normal situation personally, but shouldn't project that onto their possibly apolitical families if they're in a position to help them (I have paid for private treatment a while back for a relative who was faced with a two-year waiting list for treatment for a condition causing severe suffering).

    There are always extreme cases, of course. Would I refuse private treatment if it was the only way I could save my life? Not sure.

    An attempt at an honest answer, even if fudged at the edge!
    Thanks for the answer, sorry if I was abrupt.

    I have to say though, it seems to stink a bit to me. If politicians think Grammar schools are such a bad thing, they should be campaigning to have the local one closed down rather than sending their children to it in my opinion. If they are so good, then let all children have the chance to go to one
    Isn't the whole point of Grammars that not all children get the chance to go to one? And if the objection is to selection it is just as hypocritical to send a child to the schools with the 'rejects'.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    edited October 2016
    OT I think I worked out the government's brexit strategy.

    Currently it's basically Jam, Jam, Afternoon Tea. But Afternoon Tea is jam and scones and the scones would go off when you shipped them, so that's also jam. Why is it all about jam? Because jam is patriotic and English, but also needs people to pick fruit. So they'll keep freedom of movement. But here's the clever part: They'll say they need the immigrants for the jam.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,106
    Dromedary said:

    At the time of the indyref, David Cameron had already promised a referendum on Brexit.

    Most people (probably including Cameron) thought that he would not win a majority and would not need to follow through with a referendum. Even if held, most people assumed that Remain would win a relatively comfortable victory thanks to the combined support of all the establishment parties.

    Brexit was not at all a known quantity at the time of the last independence referendum.
  • Options
    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Alistair said:

    Erik Eriksson, former head of RedState.com (nexus of #NeverTrumpism), says internal Georgia polling by the Republicans has them down by 5.

    Up by 5, surely. If he was down by 5 there he'd be something like -15 nationally.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    On topic: If one accepts the premise of Alastair's article, I wonder whether the Yes side would be helped more by Brexit being seen to be going badly in economic terms, or by Brexit seeming to go well. In the former case, the Yes side would be able to say they want to refocus towards continental Europe because the UK was doing badly, but the No side would be able to point to Project Fear being Project Reality. Conversely, if Brexit seems to be going well, the leap into the dark might not seem so frightening.

    From past experience I expect that either outcome would be viewed as the perfect outcome by those campaigning for independence.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    TGOHF said:

    BBC "Wage growth was steady at 2.3%."

    But inflation is in crisis at 1.0%..

    RPI inflation is now 2%.
  • Options
    justin124 said:

    TGOHF said:

    BBC "Wage growth was steady at 2.3%."

    But inflation is in crisis at 1.0%..

    RPI inflation is now 2%.
    Are you sure - didn't hear the RPI rate on the media yesterday
  • Options
    619619 Posts: 1,784
    Andrew said:

    Alistair said:

    Erik Eriksson, former head of RedState.com (nexus of #NeverTrumpism), says internal Georgia polling by the Republicans has them down by 5.

    Up by 5, surely. If he was down by 5 there he'd be something like -15 nationally.
    I think the panic is that he is down 5. If he was up 5, wouldn't be a story...
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    OT I think I worked out the government's brexit strategy.

    Currently it's basically Jam, Jam, Afternoon Tea. But Afternoon Tea is jam and scones and the scones would go off when you shipped them, so that's also jam. Why is it all about jam? Because jam is patriotic and English, but also needs people to pick fruit. So they'll keep freedom of movement. But here's the clever part: They'll say they need the immigrants for the jam.

    I think that strategy might be in a bit of a jam.
  • Options

    On topic: If one accepts the premise of Alastair's article, I wonder whether the Yes side would be helped more by Brexit being seen to be going badly in economic terms, or by Brexit seeming to go well. In the former case, the Yes side would be able to say they want to refocus towards continental Europe because the UK was doing badly, but the No side would be able to point to Project Fear being Project Reality. Conversely, if Brexit seems to be going well, the leap into the dark might not seem so frightening.

    From past experience I expect that either outcome would be viewed as the perfect outcome by those campaigning for independence.
    That's for sure!
  • Options
    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited October 2016
    Dromedary said:

    I'm quite sure the SNP would say that what I just said is "scaremongering", but the fact is that if A is in a single market with B and C is not, then A cannot be in a single market with C.

    The SNP takes things to loony land. Say there's another indyref and Scotland becomes independent and applies to join the EU, and its application is accepted, and then the Brexit negotiations result in rUK leaving the single market with EU27 (or EU28 with Scotland now a member). Should there then be a third Scottish referendum, so that Scottish people can get the chance to go back into the more important single market? Of course there would also have to be a referendum in rUK, on the issue of recreating the union, because an independent country doesn't have the right to decide for itself on whether to unite with the country next door.

    This is the kind of crazy talk we get to when groups in local councils talk foreign policy.

    And "local council" isn't being rude. The will of the Scottish people expressed in a very high turnout referendum is that the Scottish parliament should be a regional representative body with devolved legislative powers within Britain.


  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    National - Selzer/Bloomberg - 1,006 - 14-17 Oct

    Clinton 50 .. Trump 41

    https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rSBkM2tk5hcI/v0
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    619 said:

    Andrew said:

    Alistair said:

    Erik Eriksson, former head of RedState.com (nexus of #NeverTrumpism), says internal Georgia polling by the Republicans has them down by 5.

    Up by 5, surely. If he was down by 5 there he'd be something like -15 nationally.
    I think the panic is that he is down 5. If he was up 5, wouldn't be a story...
    Down 5 points from previous poll?
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Dr P,

    "But it does feel odd that Brexiteers aren't more relaxed, magnaminous, etc."

    Oh, but I am, and most Remainer voters are comfortable with the result now and just want the best deal for the country. I feel genuinely sorry for the bitters, but that's life. Some rain must fall and this is but a light shower for them. The odd cry-baby excepted.

    I'm across in Brexit Central (Boston) for a few days next week and I expect to be surrounded by lively, cheery faces. Don't worry about us, Nick, we'll be fine.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,106
    Dromedary said:

    The SNP takes things to loony land. Say there's another indyref and Scotland becomes independent and applies to join the EU, and its application is accepted, and then the Brexit negotiations result in rUK leaving the single market with EU27 (or EU28 with Scotland now a member).

    The hypothesis breaks down there. If part of the country left in the middle of Brexit negotiations, there's no way on Earth that the rUK would press on with leaving the single market.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    Anorak said:

    OT I think I worked out the government's brexit strategy.

    Currently it's basically Jam, Jam, Afternoon Tea. But Afternoon Tea is jam and scones and the scones would go off when you shipped them, so that's also jam. Why is it all about jam? Because jam is patriotic and English, but also needs people to pick fruit. So they'll keep freedom of movement. But here's the clever part: They'll say they need the immigrants for the jam.

    I think that strategy might be in a bit of a jam.
    It probably started with that meaning when they were brainstorming but creative people know when to roll with it.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,383
    Jezza sounding good, Tezza sounding good.

    15-15 so far.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    justin124 said:

    TGOHF said:

    BBC "Wage growth was steady at 2.3%."

    But inflation is in crisis at 1.0%..

    RPI inflation is now 2%.
    So still comfortably below wage growth.
  • Options
    JackW said:

    Fox News latest POTUS projection :

    Clinton 307 .. Trump 181 .. Toss-Up 50

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/presidential-race

    For all Fox's professed bias, that is a realistic prediction. I'd give most of the toss-up to Trump, maybe not NC.
  • Options
    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    TGOHF said:

    BBC "Wage growth was steady at 2.3%."

    But inflation is in crisis at 1.0%..

    RPI inflation is now 2%.
    So still comfortably below wage growth.
    RPI Sept 16 was 1.3% not 2% quoted by Justin
  • Options

    Dromedary said:

    The SNP takes things to loony land. Say there's another indyref and Scotland becomes independent and applies to join the EU, and its application is accepted, and then the Brexit negotiations result in rUK leaving the single market with EU27 (or EU28 with Scotland now a member).

    The hypothesis breaks down there. If part of the country left in the middle of Brexit negotiations, there's no way on Earth that the rUK would press on with leaving the single market.
    Err so you think once we start, we can stop.

    It's a process once started will be VERY VERY expensive to rewind.

    eg UK contribution doubles etc..
  • Options
    Have any of our PB financial experts commented on this?

    http://brexitcentral.com/brain-monteith-deutsche-banks-liabilities-show-need-quick-clean-brexit/

    One example
    "In the scenario of total and sudden contraction, its main UK creditor, the Bank of England, would sell off the gilts it has bought from Deutsche, putting the proceeds on Deutsche’s BoE Settlement Account, thus enabling it to settle its CHAPS liabilities. Deutsche’s liquidator would likewise sell off the gilts Deutsche was holding as High-Quality Liquid Assets in compliance with global liquidity rules, in order to pay depositors."
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050

    Jobabob said:



    Yes, there's a nasty fascism creeping in about Brexit and any of those who challenge its proponents' worldview. SeanT called Remainers traitors as a term of common abuse. Several idiots on here actually believe it.

    SeanT is SeanT - MalcolmG with richer prose. I got bored about the tenth time he had a go at me and haven't really bewen bothered since.

    But it does feel odd that Brexiteers aren't more relaxed, magnaminous, etc. I don't think they are quite sure they are relaly going to get what they want, insofar as they know what they want.

    On liberalism, the site is predominently Cameroonish, i.e. socially liberal and mildly conservative. The 25% of the population who really like Corbyn is under-represented (BJO, me, and er...) as are the hard right, though plato seems to be moving to fill the gap. The most interesting posts IMO are from the people like DavidL who one can't quite predict!
    Nick....I really don't like the word Brexiteer...it somehow conjures up something noble, and chivalrous about the cause...when actually it's rather the opposite..
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783
    TOPPING said:

    Jezza sounding good, Tezza sounding good.

    15-15 so far.

    Both playing at grown ups today - May set the tone by remembering Aberfan...now got on to NHS tractor stats....so going down hill.....
  • Options

    justin124 said:

    TGOHF said:

    BBC "Wage growth was steady at 2.3%."

    But inflation is in crisis at 1.0%..

    RPI inflation is now 2%.
    Are you sure - didn't hear the RPI rate on the media yesterday
    RPI is at 2% but CPIH is at 1.2% so something strange is going on. Neither is officially reported as a national statistic.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited October 2016

    Anorak said:

    OT I think I worked out the government's brexit strategy.

    Currently it's basically Jam, Jam, Afternoon Tea. But Afternoon Tea is jam and scones and the scones would go off when you shipped them, so that's also jam. Why is it all about jam? Because jam is patriotic and English, but also needs people to pick fruit. So they'll keep freedom of movement. But here's the clever part: They'll say they need the immigrants for the jam.

    I think that strategy might be in a bit of a jam.
    It probably started with that meaning when they were brainstorming but creative people know when to roll with it.
    Swiss roll with it, I hope (a non-EU cake-based jam repository)
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172


    Good Morning

    I asked you a direct question last week when I joined the site that you haven't acknowledged or answered.

    Would it be ok with you if politicians used these hospitals for themselves and their children, while refusing to allow similar hospitals to be opened in poorer areas where people living healthier lifestyles than the politicians, and those unable to afford the magic drug (private tuition), were given inferior treatment, had longer waiting lists and more crowded wards?

    Hi and (obviously belated) welcome to the site. I didn't see your message, sorry - I'm moving house and a bit infrequently on at the moment.

    In reply: no. My view is that it's reasonable for politicians to do the best for their families in the current situation, while doing everything they can to ensure that inequities in the current situation are brought to an end. Your scenario foresees the politicians doing the former but not the latter - indeed "refusing" the latter.

    I think that politicians should normally avoid buying their way to better treatment themselves (e.g. I use NHS medical and dental care), so that they experience the normal situation personally, but shouldn't project that onto their possibly apolitical families if they're in a position to help them (I have paid for private treatment a while back for a relative who was faced with a two-year waiting list for treatment for a condition causing severe suffering).

    There are always extreme cases, of course. Would I refuse private treatment if it was the only way I could save my life? Not sure.

    An attempt at an honest answer, even if fudged at the edge!
    I personally think it should be compulsory for politicians (whether right-wing or left-wing) to use NHS medical/dental care and education. They should not be permitted to opt out if they want a career in politics.

    Politicians set the budgets for the NHS and education. If they (and their children) are forced to use public services, then a reasonable level of funding is guaranteed for the rest of us.

    Once politicians can opt out, then public provision can become sh1tty.

    Politicians are then simply a wealthy nomenklatura, who have little contact with the services they fund.


  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,383

    TOPPING said:

    Jezza sounding good, Tezza sounding good.

    15-15 so far.

    Both playing at grown ups today - May set the tone by remembering Aberfan...now got on to NHS tractor stats....so going down hill.....
    Care funding is key to many of the problems of the NHS. Jezza is right to keep at it.

    Plus more interestingly no one seems to laugh at, and the PM seems to take seriously the emails from Colin, etc
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    CD13 said:

    Dr P,

    "But it does feel odd that Brexiteers aren't more relaxed, magnaminous, etc."

    Oh, but I am, and most Remainer voters are comfortable with the result now and just want the best deal for the country. I feel genuinely sorry for the bitters, but that's life. Some rain must fall and this is but a light shower for them. The odd cry-baby excepted.

    I'm across in Brexit Central (Boston) for a few days next week and I expect to be surrounded by lively, cheery faces. Don't worry about us, Nick, we'll be fine.


    Most remainers are not comfortable with the vote. Most remainers want the best for the country which certainly is not Brexit in any way shape or form.

    Brexit is like watching one of those Execution movies when a terrible miscarriage has occurred and one is left chewing one's nails hoping for justice to prevail...
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,383
    A good, worthy if monumentally boring PMQs.

    Score draw.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031

    Have any of our PB financial experts commented on this?

    http://brexitcentral.com/brain-monteith-deutsche-banks-liabilities-show-need-quick-clean-brexit/

    One example
    "In the scenario of total and sudden contraction, its main UK creditor, the Bank of England, would sell off the gilts it has bought from Deutsche, putting the proceeds on Deutsche’s BoE Settlement Account, thus enabling it to settle its CHAPS liabilities. Deutsche’s liquidator would likewise sell off the gilts Deutsche was holding as High-Quality Liquid Assets in compliance with global liquidity rules, in order to pay depositors."

    It's tosh, in that - if DB goes bust - then the German government would pick up the bill, just as the UK government did for RBS, Northern Rock, etc. Shareholders in Deutsche would lose everything, of course, but it would be effectively nationalised, as has happened to every major failing retail and commercial bank in the Western World in the last 75 years.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,106

    Dromedary said:

    The SNP takes things to loony land. Say there's another indyref and Scotland becomes independent and applies to join the EU, and its application is accepted, and then the Brexit negotiations result in rUK leaving the single market with EU27 (or EU28 with Scotland now a member).

    The hypothesis breaks down there. If part of the country left in the middle of Brexit negotiations, there's no way on Earth that the rUK would press on with leaving the single market.
    Err so you think once we start, we can stop.

    It's a process once started will be VERY VERY expensive to rewind.

    eg UK contribution doubles etc..
    It's a process that can be fudged in countless ways if there is will on both sides. It's worth reading Donald Tusk's speech on this.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    TGOHF said:

    BBC "Wage growth was steady at 2.3%."

    But inflation is in crisis at 1.0%..

    RPI inflation is now 2%.
    So still comfortably below wage growth.
    RPI Sept 16 was 1.3% not 2% quoted by Justin
    Not so. I have just checked ONS site and the RPI figure published yesterday had inflation at 2%!
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    619 said:

    Andrew said:

    Alistair said:

    Erik Eriksson, former head of RedState.com (nexus of #NeverTrumpism), says internal Georgia polling by the Republicans has them down by 5.

    Up by 5, surely. If he was down by 5 there he'd be something like -15 nationally.
    I think the panic is that he is down 5. If he was up 5, wouldn't be a story...
    The southern strategy on steroids is not even delivering the south anymore.
  • Options
    justin124 said:

    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    TGOHF said:

    BBC "Wage growth was steady at 2.3%."

    But inflation is in crisis at 1.0%..

    RPI inflation is now 2%.
    So still comfortably below wage growth.
    RPI Sept 16 was 1.3% not 2% quoted by Justin
    Not so. I have just checked ONS site and the RPI figure published yesterday had inflation at 2%!
    CPI was 1% and RPI was 1.3%. It looks like you are misreading the stats
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited October 2016

    JackW said:

    Fox News latest POTUS projection :

    Clinton 307 .. Trump 181 .. Toss-Up 50

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/presidential-race

    For all Fox's professed bias, that is a realistic prediction. I'd give most of the toss-up to Trump, maybe not NC.
    Arizona and Ohio are looking very tight. Presently I edge them both into Clinton's column. There are also some encouraging numbers coming from Georgia for her too.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    TGOHF said:

    BBC "Wage growth was steady at 2.3%."

    But inflation is in crisis at 1.0%..

    RPI inflation is now 2%.
    So still comfortably below wage growth.
    RPI Sept 16 was 1.3% not 2% quoted by Justin
    Not so. I have just checked ONS site and the RPI figure published yesterday had inflation at 2%!
    CPI was 1% and RPI was 1.3%. It looks like you are misreading the stats
    Sorry - you need to look again.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    TGOHF said:

    BBC "Wage growth was steady at 2.3%."

    But inflation is in crisis at 1.0%..

    RPI inflation is now 2%.
    So still comfortably below wage growth.
    RPI Sept 16 was 1.3% not 2% quoted by Justin
    Not so. I have just checked ONS site and the RPI figure published yesterday had inflation at 2%!
    CPI was 1% and RPI was 1.3%. It looks like you are misreading the stats
    Sorry - you need to look again.
    This?

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7g7/mm23
  • Options

    Dromedary said:

    The SNP takes things to loony land. Say there's another indyref and Scotland becomes independent and applies to join the EU, and its application is accepted, and then the Brexit negotiations result in rUK leaving the single market with EU27 (or EU28 with Scotland now a member).

    The hypothesis breaks down there. If part of the country left in the middle of Brexit negotiations, there's no way on Earth that the rUK would press on with leaving the single market.
    That's putting the cart before the horse. The UK is leaving the EU come what may in 2019.

    Even if the SNP gets an Independence Referendum there is simply not enough time to organise a referendum, provide the appropriate time for campaigning, hold the referendum then have negotiations for separation and exit before the Article 50 clock runs out and we leave the EU.

    You're acting as if a SindyRef Yes vote means Scotland is independent tomorrow, it isn't. Scotland needs independence negotiations with the UK just as much as the UK needs negotiations with the EU. Sindy can't and won't be complete before Brexit negotiations end.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    You're acting as if a SindyRef Yes vote means Scotland is independent tomorrow, it isn't. Scotland needs independence negotiations with the UK just as much as the UK needs negotiations with the EU. Sindy can't and won't be complete before Brexit negotiations end.

    They could adopt the SeanT approach to negotiations.

    "Fck it, we're off. No deal. See ya!"

    It would be catastrophic, but that is apparently not a consideration
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Fox News latest POTUS projection :

    Clinton 307 .. Trump 181 .. Toss-Up 50

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/presidential-race

    For all Fox's professed bias, that is a realistic prediction. I'd give most of the toss-up to Trump, maybe not NC.
    Arizona and Ohio are looking very tight. Presently I edge them both into Clinton's column. There are also some encouraging numbers coming from Georgia for her too.
    There are some very bad numbers in heavily dem counties in Ohio, I would say leaning Trump as well as Iowa.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    edited October 2016

    justin124 said:

    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    TGOHF said:

    BBC "Wage growth was steady at 2.3%."

    But inflation is in crisis at 1.0%..

    RPI inflation is now 2%.
    So still comfortably below wage growth.
    RPI Sept 16 was 1.3% not 2% quoted by Justin
    Not so. I have just checked ONS site and the RPI figure published yesterday had inflation at 2%!
    CPI was 1% and RPI was 1.3%. It looks like you are misreading the stats
    RPI is 2.0% YoY, RPIJ is 1.3% YoY. Neither are really very useful. CPI was 1.0%, it is the international benchmark of inflation.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Well you could argue that about a lot of the discussion on here. I can't vote in Witney, and nor can almost any other PBer I suspect. It's all potential background to the betting

    No. Facts are background to betting, (informed) speculation has is place, I can even understand ramping and blatant propaganda on plebiscite on which most members get to vote. But seriously what is the point on ramping and misinformation, not to mention blatant lying on an election on which almost no one here gets to vote ?

    If the purpose is to inform better, why are people in such a hurry to handwave away views that don't conform with their own sensibilities, rather that consider the evidence on its merits. Everyone is guilty of this to some extent, but I have to say the more liberal leaning members are raising it to an art form, just because someone is nasty, or racist or misogynistic doesnt mean they dont have support from the electorate no matter how much it might disgust or disappoint, saying that someone can't have much support because they have illiberal views is the triumph of hope over experience.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    From BBC page 'The Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation, which includes mortgage interest payments, rose to 2.0% in September from 1.8% in August.'
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,106
    edited October 2016

    Dromedary said:

    The SNP takes things to loony land. Say there's another indyref and Scotland becomes independent and applies to join the EU, and its application is accepted, and then the Brexit negotiations result in rUK leaving the single market with EU27 (or EU28 with Scotland now a member).

    The hypothesis breaks down there. If part of the country left in the middle of Brexit negotiations, there's no way on Earth that the rUK would press on with leaving the single market.
    That's putting the cart before the horse. The UK is leaving the EU come what may in 2019.

    Even if the SNP gets an Independence Referendum there is simply not enough time to organise a referendum, provide the appropriate time for campaigning, hold the referendum then have negotiations for separation and exit before the Article 50 clock runs out and we leave the EU.

    You're acting as if a SindyRef Yes vote means Scotland is independent tomorrow, it isn't. Scotland needs independence negotiations with the UK just as much as the UK needs negotiations with the EU. Sindy can't and won't be complete before Brexit negotiations end.
    Sindy would throw an almighty spanner in the works that would provide the necessary cover for fudging the Article 50 process or extending it indefinitely. If nothing else, why would the EU continue to offer the same terms to the UK knowing that it is about to be dismembered?
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Mr Tyson,

    Of course I was referring to most of the Remain voters I know in the UK. I can't vouch for the Italian Remain voters.
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    MaxPB said:

    justin124 said:

    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    TGOHF said:

    BBC "Wage growth was steady at 2.3%."

    But inflation is in crisis at 1.0%..

    RPI inflation is now 2%.
    So still comfortably below wage growth.
    RPI Sept 16 was 1.3% not 2% quoted by Justin
    Not so. I have just checked ONS site and the RPI figure published yesterday had inflation at 2%!
    CPI was 1% and RPI was 1.3%. It looks like you are misreading the stats
    RPI is 2.0% YoY, RPIJ is 1.3% YoY. Neither are really very useful. CPI was 1.0%, it is the international benchmark of inflation.
    Thanks for your clarification
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783
    justin124 said:

    From BBC page 'The Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation, which includes mortgage interest payments, rose to 2.0% in September from 1.8% in August.'

    Headline:

    UK inflation at 1% as price of clothes and fuel rises

    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37688593
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    From BBC page 'The Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation, which includes mortgage interest payments, rose to 2.0% in September from 1.8% in August.'

    Headline:

    UK inflation at 1% as price of clothes and fuel rises

    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37688593
    Yes - that refers to the CPI - nobody appears to be contesting that!
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    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited October 2016
    Indigo said:

    Well you could argue that about a lot of the discussion on here. I can't vote in Witney, and nor can almost any other PBer I suspect. It's all potential background to the betting

    No. Facts are background to betting, (informed) speculation has is place, I can even understand ramping and blatant propaganda on plebiscite on which most members get to vote. But seriously what is the point on ramping and misinformation, not to mention blatant lying on an election on which almost no one here gets to vote ?

    If the purpose is to inform better, why are people in such a hurry to handwave away views that don't conform with their own sensibilities, rather that consider the evidence on its merits. Everyone is guilty of this to some extent, but I have to say the more liberal leaning members are raising it to an art form, just because someone is nasty, or racist or misogynistic doesnt mean they dont have support from the electorate no matter how much it might disgust or disappoint, saying that someone can't have much support because they have illiberal views is the triumph of hope over experience.
    To many liberals, anyone who has illiberal, mysogenistic or racist views, however mildly on the scale is a pariah worse than a pederast and they cannot comprehend that many if not most people consider it as one character flaw to be judged in the matrix of their positives and negatives in which the positives may carry greater weight.

    On the other hand someone who abandons their spouse and children because they fancy another man or woman is exercising their right to follow their own conscience and cannot be criticised as that would be "Judgemental" in the eyes of liberals.

    #rankhypocracy

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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    OT I think I worked out the government's brexit strategy.

    Currently it's basically Jam, Jam, Afternoon Tea. But Afternoon Tea is jam and scones and the scones would go off when you shipped them, so that's also jam. Why is it all about jam? Because jam is patriotic and English, but also needs people to pick fruit. So they'll keep freedom of movement. But here's the clever part: They'll say they need the immigrants for the jam.

    *scratches head*

    I assume the after work drinks were more agreeable than usual today :smiley:
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    MaxPB said:

    justin124 said:

    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    TGOHF said:

    BBC "Wage growth was steady at 2.3%."

    But inflation is in crisis at 1.0%..

    RPI inflation is now 2%.
    So still comfortably below wage growth.
    RPI Sept 16 was 1.3% not 2% quoted by Justin
    Not so. I have just checked ONS site and the RPI figure published yesterday had inflation at 2%!
    CPI was 1% and RPI was 1.3%. It looks like you are misreading the stats
    RPI is 2.0% YoY, RPIJ is 1.3% YoY. Neither are really very useful. CPI was 1.0%, it is the international benchmark of inflation.
    But until the late 1990s we relied on the RPI.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    justin124 said:

    MaxPB said:

    justin124 said:

    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    TGOHF said:

    BBC "Wage growth was steady at 2.3%."

    But inflation is in crisis at 1.0%..

    RPI inflation is now 2%.
    So still comfortably below wage growth.
    RPI Sept 16 was 1.3% not 2% quoted by Justin
    Not so. I have just checked ONS site and the RPI figure published yesterday had inflation at 2%!
    CPI was 1% and RPI was 1.3%. It looks like you are misreading the stats
    RPI is 2.0% YoY, RPIJ is 1.3% YoY. Neither are really very useful. CPI was 1.0%, it is the international benchmark of inflation.
    But until the late 1990s we relied on the RPI.
    Which was wrong.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711
    justin124 said:

    MaxPB said:

    justin124 said:

    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    TGOHF said:

    BBC "Wage growth was steady at 2.3%."

    But inflation is in crisis at 1.0%..

    RPI inflation is now 2%.
    So still comfortably below wage growth.
    RPI Sept 16 was 1.3% not 2% quoted by Justin
    Not so. I have just checked ONS site and the RPI figure published yesterday had inflation at 2%!
    CPI was 1% and RPI was 1.3%. It looks like you are misreading the stats
    RPI is 2.0% YoY, RPIJ is 1.3% YoY. Neither are really very useful. CPI was 1.0%, it is the international benchmark of inflation.
    But until the late 1990s we relied on the RPI.
    We relied on getting around on horses for a fair while too.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Are we expecting a Mori poll this week?
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    rcs1000 said:

    Have any of our PB financial experts commented on this?

    http://brexitcentral.com/brain-monteith-deutsche-banks-liabilities-show-need-quick-clean-brexit/

    One example
    "In the scenario of total and sudden contraction, its main UK creditor, the Bank of England, would sell off the gilts it has bought from Deutsche, putting the proceeds on Deutsche’s BoE Settlement Account, thus enabling it to settle its CHAPS liabilities. Deutsche’s liquidator would likewise sell off the gilts Deutsche was holding as High-Quality Liquid Assets in compliance with global liquidity rules, in order to pay depositors."

    It's tosh, in that - if DB goes bust - then the German government would pick up the bill, just as the UK government did for RBS, Northern Rock, etc. Shareholders in Deutsche would lose everything, of course, but it would be effectively nationalised, as has happened to every major failing retail and commercial bank in the Western World in the last 75 years.
    thanks.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    New Arizona poll - Clinton +4 .. 39/35

    Via .. Arizona Republic
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    Indigo said:

    OT I think I worked out the government's brexit strategy.

    Currently it's basically Jam, Jam, Afternoon Tea. But Afternoon Tea is jam and scones and the scones would go off when you shipped them, so that's also jam. Why is it all about jam? Because jam is patriotic and English, but also needs people to pick fruit. So they'll keep freedom of movement. But here's the clever part: They'll say they need the immigrants for the jam.

    *scratches head*

    I assume the after work drinks were more agreeable than usual today :smiley:
    Read the news, it's all about the jam.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2016

    Dromedary said:

    The SNP takes things to loony land. Say there's another indyref and Scotland becomes independent and applies to join the EU, and its application is accepted, and then the Brexit negotiations result in rUK leaving the single market with EU27 (or EU28 with Scotland now a member).

    The hypothesis breaks down there. If part of the country left in the middle of Brexit negotiations, there's no way on Earth that the rUK would press on with leaving the single market.
    That's putting the cart before the horse. The UK is leaving the EU come what may in 2019.

    Even if the SNP gets an Independence Referendum there is simply not enough time to organise a referendum, provide the appropriate time for campaigning, hold the referendum then have negotiations for separation and exit before the Article 50 clock runs out and we leave the EU.

    You're acting as if a SindyRef Yes vote means Scotland is independent tomorrow, it isn't. Scotland needs independence negotiations with the UK just as much as the UK needs negotiations with the EU. Sindy can't and won't be complete before Brexit negotiations end.
    Sindy would throw an almighty spanner in the works that would provide the necessary cover for fudging the Article 50 process or extending it indefinitely. If nothing else, why would the EU continue to offer the same terms to the UK knowing that it is about to be dismembered?
    Not really, to extend the Article 50 process requires unanimity from all 28 EU Member States and a number of them are all too happy to see us leave (especially after the vote) and/or not happy to encourage member states to dismember easily (eg Spain). The idea that the process will be halted has about as much chance as standing in front of an oncoming freight train and putting your hand out to say stop.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Andrew said:

    Alistair said:

    Erik Eriksson, former head of RedState.com (nexus of #NeverTrumpism), says internal Georgia polling by the Republicans has them down by 5.

    Up by 5, surely. If he was down by 5 there he'd be something like -15 nationally.
    https://twitter.com/EWErickson/status/788511823100309504
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    From BBC page 'The Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation, which includes mortgage interest payments, rose to 2.0% in September from 1.8% in August.'

    Headline:

    UK inflation at 1% as price of clothes and fuel rises

    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37688593
    Yes - that refers to the CPI - nobody appears to be contesting that!
    And its the figure that is used nowadays to measure 'inflation' - its what benefits/pensions etc are indexed to - RPI is no longer used....
  • Options
    justin124 said:

    MaxPB said:

    justin124 said:

    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    TGOHF said:

    BBC "Wage growth was steady at 2.3%."

    But inflation is in crisis at 1.0%..

    RPI inflation is now 2%.
    So still comfortably below wage growth.
    RPI Sept 16 was 1.3% not 2% quoted by Justin
    Not so. I have just checked ONS site and the RPI figure published yesterday had inflation at 2%!
    CPI was 1% and RPI was 1.3%. It looks like you are misreading the stats
    RPI is 2.0% YoY, RPIJ is 1.3% YoY. Neither are really very useful. CPI was 1.0%, it is the international benchmark of inflation.
    But until the late 1990s we relied on the RPI.
    We relied on RPI-X and the target was 2.5% so 2.0% would still be below target as well as below wage growth.
This discussion has been closed.