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Liberal Democrats backed into 10/1 from 50/1 to win Thursday's Witney by-election after a rush of money… https://t.co/BKFhwPC3TT pic.twitter.com/s3Renglv4P

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Ishmael_X

Never gonna give EU up
Edit: first, and a rickroll. Damn, I'm good.

RobD

Second!

GIN1138

Third (rate) like George Osborne's career...

Philip_Thompson

Bit of spin here?

EU spin me right round, baby
Right round like a record, baby
Right round round round

1666

We need an opposition not a million miles away from our current government as we had in the 19th century and before when we were world leaders.

tlg86

Official Monster Raving Loony.

Jobabob

@Sean FPT

I agree that Asians' general europhilia will help us through it.

1666

No perhaps the Torres and the Liberal democrats not a socialist party which is incapable of running anything

JackW

TSE - Headline Is Is gibberish ..

Witney .. Houston .. We have a problem ..

Jonathan

Would be good, and it would certainly make politics more interesting, if the LDs win. A Labour MP for Witney would be delicious.

Jobabob

Is there any realistic prospect of a Liberal win here? Any word from the street?

Cookie

Eagles, I say this in all politeness, and your threads are always, of course, interesting, but you seem a wee bit obsessed by Europe presently. Mike spent six or seven years repeatedly assuring us that Europe wasn't a subject high up people's radar - I'd suggest that inasmuch as this was ever true it still is. Yes, the subject is salient, but I don't think the country as a whole is quite as bothered about Europe as your repeated threads on Europe would imply.

FrancisUrquhart

12th like Ed balls in strictly...

TheScreamingEagles

JackW said:

TSE - Headline Is Is gibberish ..

Witney .. Houston .. We have a problem ..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewxmv2tyeRs

1666

We had good government when the Tories and Lib Dems had to work together.

Jobabob

Is the Tory candidate a europhile or eurosceptic?

oxfordsimon

A close friend who is well placed in the LDs was visiting Witney to help this weekend and he returned home planning to bet on a Tory hold.

TheScreamingEagles

Cookie said:

Eagles, I say this in all politeness, and your threads are always, of course, interesting, but you seem a wee bit obsessed by Europe presently. Mike spent six or seven years repeatedly assuring us that Europe wasn't a subject high up people's radar - I'd suggest that inasmuch as this was ever true it still is. Yes, the subject is salient, but I don't think the country as a whole is quite as bothered about Europe as your repeated threads on Europe would imply.

Brexit is a salient issue, in some polls conducted over the summer Brexit/EU matters was rated the number one issue among voters.

Barnesian

On Betfair, you can get a 5% tax free return on the Tories holding Witney in just two days time.

I'm trying my best to ensure that you don't. But I don't think I'll succeed. In fact I'm heavily invested in Tories first, LibDems second (at evens with Ladbrokes some time ago) with a small saver on Labour second.

MikeK

As usual TSE is talking through his hat. He never tires of talking thus.

Barnesian

Jobabob said:

Is the Tory candidate a europhile or eurosceptic?

He's a Leaver.

Jobabob

Will the Tory Remainers in Witney Want To Dance With Somebody else, just for this One Moment In Time?

Jobabob

Barnesian said:

Jobabob said:

Is the Tory candidate a europhile or eurosceptic?

He's a Leaver.

Hmm. A poor choice in a very europhile seat.

1666

Depends whether they were that serious about wanting to stay in the EU.

RobD

Jobabob said:

Barnesian said:

Jobabob said:

Is the Tory candidate a europhile or eurosceptic?

He's a Leaver.

Hmm. A poor choice in a very europhile seat.

Not really in terms of when he gets to the House.

MP_SE

oxfordsimon said:

A close friend who is well placed in the LDs was visiting Witney to help this weekend and he returned home planning to bet on a Tory hold.

Witney will be a comfortable Tory hold.

This by-election has Oldham written all over it. Anything less than a win or incredibly close result for the Lib Dems will be seen as a failure.

Gardenwalker

Any predix?

I'm going with (%)
Con 50
Lib Dem 20
Labour 15
Others inc UKIP 15

If the LDs got to 25/30 and knocked the Cons to early 40s, it would be quite the upset.

No way can LDs win this though.

I see the Wessex nationalists stood last time. I always thought Wessex stopped the other side of the Thames; had Oxfordshire down as a kind of Midland county.

AnneJGP

How usual is it for a former PM to quit mid-term and cause a By-election, though?

If the constituency is accustomed to a PM as its MP, seems to make sense for the in-coming PM to pay them a visit.

1666

Remember Orpington

Sean_F

Jobabob said:

Is there any realistic prospect of a Liberal win here? Any word from the street?

It would have to be a Christchurch or Newbury 1993-type result.

Gardenwalker

1666 said:

Remember Orpington

Is your handle a reference to your year of birth?

RobD

1666 said:

Remember Orpington

Lib Dems to get 55%?

GIN1138

Even if Lib's were to win (they won't) the idea that the fate of the country for the next century lays with the Witney by election is... Interesting.

1666

Well everyone thought we would vote to stay in the EU. So maybe some of the things I am saying you should take notice of.

RobD

1666 said:

Well everyone thought we would vote to stay in the EU. So maybe some of the things I am saying you should take notice of.

The great soothsayer of PB has arrived!

MarkSenior

My u to date forecast based on various reports from Witney ( not all Lib Dem )

Con 45
LDem 31
Lab 9
UKIP 5
Green 5
Others 5

1666

That's a good result for the LDs.

Sean_F

MarkSenior said:

My u to date forecast based on various reports from Witney ( not all Lib Dem )

Con 45
LDem 31
Lab 9
UKIP 5
Green 5
Others 5

Sounds plausible. Pro-EU voters will converge on the Lib Dems, anti-EU voters on the Conservatives.

Pulpstar

Just had a tickle on Witney...

Profits before errm something..

Stark_Dawning

SeanT said:

Just spoke with a very senior Leaver.

He's genuinely confident all will be OK, with some minor worries.

Hm. I am calmed. Somewhat.

Nigel Farage?

chestnut

UKIP polled 5k in 2015.
Leave polled 30k in 2016.

Therefore, 25k leavers sitting in other parties votes.

Tories only polled 35k, so there must be a reasonable chance that a majority (over 17.5k) of 2015 Witney Tories voted Leave.

JohnWheatley

Re posted from previous thread

The election is almost totally fought in Witney itself, if the unreliable measure of poster count is anything to go by. Witney has loads, in the the villages hardly a thing, except the Leffman stronghold of Charlbury ( I have been forced to drive round a lot of the constituency today)

Hardly any visible Tory activity. Such comments are usually a prelude to a safe Tory majority

One other factor, Witney used to run by a real old fashioned Tory machine politician, Barry Norton. He was very efficient and dedicated. A smart local politician. He was forced to stand down because of health issues. Cameron's replacement agent is relatively inexperienced and a failed candidate for the nomination, not a local person with knowledge of what needs doing in a close fight. Is the Tory bus being driven with energy or complacency?

LD leaflets banging on about health - rightly. Two live local issues have featured prominently

I suspect Labour being overwhelmed by the sheer scale of the Lib Dem effort. Heaven knows how many will be here on Thursday....

Gardenwalker

SeanT said:

Just spoke with a very senior Leaver.

He's genuinely confident all will be OK, with some minor worries.

Hm. I am calmed. Somewhat.

Did he explain why?

Jonathan

Gardenwalker said:

SeanT said:

Just spoke with a very senior Leaver.

He's genuinely confident all will be OK, with some minor worries.

Hm. I am calmed. Somewhat.

Did he explain why?

Because he's going to be leader again.

GIN1138

SeanT said:

Just spoke with a very senior Leaver.

He's genuinely confident all will be OK, with some minor worries.

Hm. I am calmed. Somewhat.

Goes off to looks at which "senior" "Leaver's" live on Primrose...

another_richard

Jobabob said:

Barnesian said:

Jobabob said:

Is the Tory candidate a europhile or eurosceptic?

He's a Leaver.

Hmm. A poor choice in a very europhile seat.

West Oxfordshire was 53.7% Remain.

Compared with the other Oxfordshire boroughs:

Oxford 70.3% Remain
Vale of White Horse 56.7% Remain
South Oxfordshire 55.0% Remain
Cherwell 49.7% Remain

If Cameron brought a 'personal vote' to Remain in West Oxfordshire its possible that its baseline is actually narrowly Leave.

Sean_F

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cookie said:

Eagles, I say this in all politeness, and your threads are always, of course, interesting, but you seem a wee bit obsessed by Europe presently. Mike spent six or seven years repeatedly assuring us that Europe wasn't a subject high up people's radar - I'd suggest that inasmuch as this was ever true it still is. Yes, the subject is salient, but I don't think the country as a whole is quite as bothered about Europe as your repeated threads on Europe would imply.

Brexit is a salient issue, in some polls conducted over the summer Brexit/EU matters was rated the number one issue among voters.

There is a huge disjunct between the political and Twittering classes and the people here. Brexit obsesses the media and pols (me included), not so much the voters.

That said, on my recent trip to t'West Country I overheard three separate Brexit conversations (unlike the zero I have heard in London, in recent weeks).

There was a young man bemused and a bit angry about Brexit, there was an old woman absolutely furious about being called a racist for voting Leave, and there was some posh huntin' shootin' and fishin' dude who was quietly pleased with the result (reinforcing my supposition that the upper crust are surprisingly Leave-y)

Also, Cornwall is majorly Brexit, with few regrets. Even the arty types are quite Brexit.

Not surprising. Overall, about 43% of well-off voters supported Brexit. In rural Devon and Cornwall, the proportion would be above 50%.

GIN1138

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

TSE - Headline Is Is gibberish ..

Witney .. Houston .. We have a problem ..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewxmv2tyeRs

I will always love EU



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JWTaaS7LdU

AnneJGP

chestnut said:

UKIP polled 5k in 2015.
Leave polled 30k in 2016.

Therefore, 25k leavers sitting in other parties votes.

Tories only polled 35k, so there must be a reasonable chance that a majority (over 17.5k) of 2015 Witney Tories voted Leave.

It will be interesting to see whether any increase in the turn-out for the EU referendum carries through into an increased turn-out for this By-election. That is, of course, if there was an increased turn-out in the Witney area.

another_richard

How about this as a way out of the government's Heathrow problem:

They bring LH3 to parliament with a free vote and May votes against (with her Maidenhead MP hat on) but it is still approved.

All the anti MPs can then say they had done their best to stop it but the will of parliament etc

Gardenwalker

SeanT said:

Gardenwalker said:

SeanT said:

Just spoke with a very senior Leaver.

He's genuinely confident all will be OK, with some minor worries.

Hm. I am calmed. Somewhat.

Did he explain why?

Yes, but it was a private chat and not my place to share.

Did he cite Brexiteering delusional guff, like "Remember Mers-el-Kebir"?

Seriously though, does it make you think there is serious work going behind scenes? It seldom seems so from the media coverage.

GIN1138

another_richard said:

How about this as a way out of the government's Heathrow problem:

They bring LH3 to parliament with a free vote and May votes against (with her Maidenhead MP hat on) but it is still approved.

All the anti MPs can then say they had done their best to stop it but the will of parliament etc

Don't think TM can really vote against her own government?

JosiasJessop

KLF gain in Witney:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYTFJvgxx5Q

Sean_F

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cookie said:

Eagles, I say this in all politeness, and your threads are always, of course, interesting, but you seem a wee bit obsessed by Europe presently. Mike spent six or seven years repeatedly assuring us that Europe wasn't a subject high up people's radar - I'd suggest that inasmuch as this was ever true it still is. Yes, the subject is salient, but I don't think the country as a whole is quite as bothered about Europe as your repeated threads on Europe would imply.

Brexit is a salient issue, in some polls conducted over the summer Brexit/EU matters was rated the number one issue among voters.

There is a huge disjunct between the political and Twittering classes and the people here. Brexit obsesses the media and pols (me included), not so much the voters.

That said, on my recent trip to t'West Country I overheard three separate Brexit conversations (unlike the zero I have heard in London, in recent weeks).

There was a young man bemused and a bit angry about Brexit, there was an old woman absolutely furious about being called a racist for voting Leave, and there was some posh huntin' shootin' and fishin' dude who was quietly pleased with the result (reinforcing my supposition that the upper crust are surprisingly Leave-y)

Also, Cornwall is majorly Brexit, with few regrets. Even the arty types are quite Brexit.

Not surprising. Overall, about 43% of well-off voters supported Brexit. In rural Devon and Cornwall, the proportion would be above 50%.

Yep.

But as I noted on here, the REALLY really rich in London - I'm talking literal billionaires, the Sunday Times Top 100 - are also oddly Brexit. I went to a birthday party and met a few of them, the other weekend. Confident Leavers. The James Goldsmiths of today.

I don't move in such circles. The Saturday after the Brexit vote I went to a wedding party in Arkley - millionaires, as opposed to billionaires - and the mood was funereal.

Pong

Michelle Obama zooms back into 650/1

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419

Those odds would still be crap value even if hillary fell under a bus.

Pulpstar

Pong said:

Michelle Obama zooms back into 650/1

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419

Those odds would still be crap value even if hillary fell under a bus.

Sigh if only you could bet on credit with Betfair

As is it'll return less than the mortgage

(-2.4k+ on her atm btw)

GIN1138

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cookie said:

Eagles, I say this in all politeness, and your threads are always, of course, interesting, but you seem a wee bit obsessed by Europe presently. Mike spent six or seven years repeatedly assuring us that Europe wasn't a subject high up people's radar - I'd suggest that inasmuch as this was ever true it still is. Yes, the subject is salient, but I don't think the country as a whole is quite as bothered about Europe as your repeated threads on Europe would imply.

Brexit is a salient issue, in some polls conducted over the summer Brexit/EU matters was rated the number one issue among voters.

There is a huge disjunct between the political and Twittering classes and the people here. Brexit obsesses the media and pols (me included), not so much the voters.

That said, on my recent trip to t'West Country I overheard three separate Brexit conversations (unlike the zero I have heard in London, in recent weeks).

There was a young man bemused and a bit angry about Brexit, there was an old woman absolutely furious about being called a racist for voting Leave, and there was some posh huntin' shootin' and fishin' dude who was quietly pleased with the result (reinforcing my supposition that the upper crust are surprisingly Leave-y)

Also, Cornwall is majorly Brexit, with few regrets. Even the arty types are quite Brexit.

Not surprising. Overall, about 43% of well-off voters supported Brexit. In rural Devon and Cornwall, the proportion would be above 50%.

Yep.

But as I noted on here, the REALLY really rich in London - I'm talking literal billionaires, the Sunday Times Top 100 - are also oddly Brexit. I went to a birthday party and met a few of them, the other weekend. Confident Leavers. The James Goldsmiths of today.

I don't move in such circles. The Saturday after the Brexit vote I went to a wedding party in Arkley - millionaires, as opposed to billionaires - and the mood was funereal.

Did you keep your head down or gloat?

chestnut

AnneJGP said:

chestnut said:

UKIP polled 5k in 2015.
Leave polled 30k in 2016.

Therefore, 25k leavers sitting in other parties votes.

Tories only polled 35k, so there must be a reasonable chance that a majority (over 17.5k) of 2015 Witney Tories voted Leave.

It will be interesting to see whether any increase in the turn-out for the EU referendum carries through into an increased turn-out for this By-election. That is, of course, if there was an increased turn-out in the Witney area.

It was up by around 7,500.

Total 'right wing' (Con/UKIP) vote in 2015 was 70%

another_richard

Well I can't claim to be having conversations with very senior Leavers but I've heard multiple conversations in the last day about the 'children'.

I don't know if the UK's immigration controls are even worse than is assumed or if someone is trying to be provocative for some reason but I doubt there will be much sympathy for the next lot of asylum seekers.

Ishmael_X

GIN1138 said:

SeanT said:

Just spoke with a very senior Leaver.

He's genuinely confident all will be OK, with some minor worries.

Hm. I am calmed. Somewhat.

Goes off to looks at which "senior" "Leaver's" live on Primrose...

Dame Julian of Norwich.

Sean_F

GIN1138 said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cookie said:

Eagles, I say this in all politeness, and your threads are always, of course, interesting, but you seem a wee bit obsessed by Europe presently. Mike spent six or seven years repeatedly assuring us that Europe wasn't a subject high up people's radar - I'd suggest that inasmuch as this was ever true it still is. Yes, the subject is salient, but I don't think the country as a whole is quite as bothered about Europe as your repeated threads on Europe would imply.

Brexit is a salient issue, in some polls conducted over the summer Brexit/EU matters was rated the number one issue among voters.

There is a huge disjunct between the political and Twittering classes and the people here. Brexit obsesses the media and pols (me included), not so much the voters.

That said, on my recent trip to t'West Country I overheard three separate Brexit conversations (unlike the zero I have heard in London, in recent weeks).

There was a young man bemused and a bit angry about Brexit, there was an old woman absolutely furious about being called a racist for voting Leave, and there was some posh huntin' shootin' and fishin' dude who was quietly pleased with the result (reinforcing my supposition that the upper crust are surprisingly Leave-y)

Also, Cornwall is majorly Brexit, with few regrets. Even the arty types are quite Brexit.

Not surprising. Overall, about 43% of well-off voters supported Brexit. In rural Devon and Cornwall, the proportion would be above 50%.

Yep.

But as I noted on here, the REALLY really rich in London - I'm talking literal billionaires, the Sunday Times Top 100 - are also oddly Brexit. I went to a birthday party and met a few of them, the other weekend. Confident Leavers. The James Goldsmiths of today.

I don't move in such circles. The Saturday after the Brexit vote I went to a wedding party in Arkley - millionaires, as opposed to billionaires - and the mood was funereal.

Did you keep your head down or gloat?

I was too polite to gloat. I made sympathetic murmurings..

tyson

SeanT said:

Gardenwalker said:

SeanT said:

Gardenwalker said:

SeanT said:

Just spoke with a very senior Leaver.

He's genuinely confident all will be OK, with some minor worries.

Hm. I am calmed. Somewhat.

Did he explain why?

Yes, but it was a private chat and not my place to share.

Did he cite Brexiteering delusional guff, like "Remember Mers-el-Kebir"?

Seriously though, does it make you think there is serious work going behind scenes? It seldom seems so from the media coverage.

I don't want to impose my own wishful thinking, but I am modestly hopeful that the brains of British diplomacy and politics are grinding into gear. We do have a lot of smart people.

I agree

AnneJGP

SeanT said:

Gardenwalker said:

SeanT said:

Gardenwalker said:

SeanT said:

Just spoke with a very senior Leaver.

He's genuinely confident all will be OK, with some minor worries.

Hm. I am calmed. Somewhat.

Did he explain why?

Yes, but it was a private chat and not my place to share.

Did he cite Brexiteering delusional guff, like "Remember Mers-el-Kebir"?

Seriously though, does it make you think there is serious work going behind scenes? It seldom seems so from the media coverage.

I don't want to impose my own wishful thinking, but I am modestly hopeful that the brains of British diplomacy and politics are grinding into gear. We do have a lot of smart people.

If the brains of British diplomacy really are grinding into gear, it seems to have been a much faster adjustment for some the FCO/Civil Service people than I was expecting. Kudos to those who have managed it.

IanB2

another_richard said:

Jobabob said:

Barnesian said:

Jobabob said:

Is the Tory candidate a europhile or eurosceptic?

He's a Leaver.

Hmm. A poor choice in a very europhile seat.

West Oxfordshire was 53.7% Remain.

Compared with the other Oxfordshire boroughs:

Oxford 70.3% Remain
Vale of White Horse 56.7% Remain
South Oxfordshire 55.0% Remain
Cherwell 49.7% Remain

If Cameron brought a 'personal vote' to Remain in West Oxfordshire its possible that its baseline is actually narrowly Leave.

We had this discussion the other day. Most of the seats roundabouts are also remain and Witney (west ox) didn't have a particularly remarkable result.

megalomaniacs4u

JohnWheatley said:

Re posted from previous thread

The election is almost totally fought in Witney itself, if the unreliable measure of poster count is anything to go by. Witney has loads, in the the villages hardly a thing, except the Leffman stronghold of Charlbury ( I have been forced to drive round a lot of the constituency today)

Hardly any visible Tory activity. Such comments are usually a prelude to a safe Tory majority

One other factor, Witney used to run by a real old fashioned Tory machine politician, Barry Norton. He was very efficient and dedicated. A smart local politician. He was forced to stand down because of health issues. Cameron's replacement agent is relatively inexperienced and a failed candidate for the nomination, not a local person with knowledge of what needs doing in a close fight. Is the Tory bus being driven with energy or complacency?

LD leaflets banging on about health - rightly. Two live local issues have featured prominently

I suspect Labour being overwhelmed by the sheer scale of the Lib Dem effort. Heaven knows how many will be here on Thursday....

True enough. In Chipping Norton:

10+ Lib Dem leaflets, 2 fake newspapers, and a personalised letter.
Labour seem to have finally woken up, two leaflets, one fake newspaper since saturday.
Conservatives one generic letter from the PM today and another generic letter last week.
And oh 1 green party letter.

Pong

Pulpstar said:

Pong said:

Michelle Obama zooms back into 650/1

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419

Those odds would still be crap value even if hillary fell under a bus.

Sigh if only you could bet on credit with Betfair

As is it'll return less than the mortgage

(-2.4k+ on her atm btw)

Do you see the third debate changing the Trump/Clinton odds?

theakes

Gardenwalker: Witney appears much closer to me, more like Con 45, Lib Dem 36, Labout 8, UKIP 4 Others 5 plus the decimal points..

IanB2

megalomaniacs4u said:

JohnWheatley said:

Re posted from previous thread

The election is almost totally fought in Witney itself, if the unreliable measure of poster count is anything to go by. Witney has loads, in the the villages hardly a thing, except the Leffman stronghold of Charlbury ( I have been forced to drive round a lot of the constituency today)

Hardly any visible Tory activity. Such comments are usually a prelude to a safe Tory majority

One other factor, Witney used to run by a real old fashioned Tory machine politician, Barry Norton. He was very efficient and dedicated. A smart local politician. He was forced to stand down because of health issues. Cameron's replacement agent is relatively inexperienced and a failed candidate for the nomination, not a local person with knowledge of what needs doing in a close fight. Is the Tory bus being driven with energy or complacency?

LD leaflets banging on about health - rightly. Two live local issues have featured prominently

I suspect Labour being overwhelmed by the sheer scale of the Lib Dem effort. Heaven knows how many will be here on Thursday....

True enough. In Chipping Norton:

10+ Lib Dem leaflets, 2 fake newspapers, and a personalised letter.
Labour seem to have finally woken up, two leaflets, one fake newspaper since saturday.
Conservatives one generic letter from the PM today and another generic letter last week.
And oh 1 green party letter.

The LibDems will win the small towns and large villages, but be swamped by all the Tories hidden up country lanes and back roads.

Pulpstar

Pong said:

Pulpstar said:

Pong said:

Michelle Obama zooms back into 650/1

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419

Those odds would still be crap value even if hillary fell under a bus.

Sigh if only you could bet on credit with Betfair

As is it'll return less than the mortgage

(-2.4k+ on her atm btw)

Do you see the third debate changing the Trump/Clinton odds?

Ooh Blimey, I'm not sure - I've been tilted towards Trump for ages, he could completely flop but he could come in...

I think I'll leave (+2 Clinton, +14 Trump) ish...

AnneJGP

SeanT said:

AnneJGP said:

SeanT said:

Gardenwalker said:

SeanT said:

Gardenwalker said:

SeanT said:

Just spoke with a very senior Leaver.

He's genuinely confident all will be OK, with some minor worries.

Hm. I am calmed. Somewhat.

Did he explain why?

Yes, but it was a private chat and not my place to share.

Did he cite Brexiteering delusional guff, like "Remember Mers-el-Kebir"?

Seriously though, does it make you think there is serious work going behind scenes? It seldom seems so from the media coverage.

I don't want to impose my own wishful thinking, but I am modestly hopeful that the brains of British diplomacy and politics are grinding into gear. We do have a lot of smart people.

If the brains of British diplomacy really are grinding into gear, it seems to have been a much faster adjustment for some the FCO/Civil Service people than I was expecting. Kudos to those who have managed it.

I emphasise I have no proof for any of this, but it makes sense that the civil service are really engaging, even if they were mostly Remainers.

Brexit is the biggest thing to happen to British politics in generations. It is also the biggest and most exciting challenge. Very serious politics has returned to Whitehall big style. Get it wrong - disaster, but get it right - enormous triumph, knighthoods and fair maidenly women for the winners.

This is perhaps the most hopeful thing I have read or heard since the result was announced.

Gardenwalker

theakes said:

Gardenwalker: Witney appears much closer to me, more like Con 45, Lib Dem 36, Labout 8, UKIP 4 Others 5 plus the decimal points..

Thank you!

My estimate was an utter guess. I have no connection with Witney whatsoever.

If it is as you say, then Farron will have his moment and try to talk about a Remainer fight back. But unless he has something original up his sleeve, the media will shrug and move on.

May might be a little rattled though.

glw

SeanT said:

Brexit is the biggest thing to happen to British politics in generations. It is also the biggest and most exciting challenge. Very serious politics has returned to Whitehall big style. Get it wrong - disaster, but get it right - enormous triumph, knighthoods and fair maidenly women for the winners.

Has it finally sunk in that out of the government departments the FCO will be the biggest winner from Brexit? They should be licking their bloody lips.

another_richard

Sean_F said:

GIN1138 said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cookie said:

Eagles, I say this in all politeness, and your threads are always, of course, interesting, but you seem a wee bit obsessed by Europe presently. Mike spent six or seven years repeatedly assuring us that Europe wasn't a subject high up people's radar - I'd suggest that inasmuch as this was ever true it still is. Yes, the subject is salient, but I don't think the country as a whole is quite as bothered about Europe as your repeated threads on Europe would imply.

Brexit is a salient issue, in some polls conducted over the summer Brexit/EU matters was rated the number one issue among voters.

There is a huge disjunct between the political and Twittering classes and the people here. Brexit obsesses the media and pols (me included), not so much the voters.

That said, on my recent trip to t'West Country I overheard three separate Brexit conversations (unlike the zero I have heard in London, in recent weeks).

There was a young man bemused and a bit angry about Brexit, there was an old woman absolutely furious about being called a racist for voting Leave, and there was some posh huntin' shootin' and fishin' dude who was quietly pleased with the result (reinforcing my supposition that the upper crust are surprisingly Leave-y)

Also, Cornwall is majorly Brexit, with few regrets. Even the arty types are quite Brexit.

Not surprising. Overall, about 43% of well-off voters supported Brexit. In rural Devon and Cornwall, the proportion would be above 50%.

Yep.

But as I noted on here, the REALLY really rich in London - I'm talking literal billionaires, the Sunday Times Top 100 - are also oddly Brexit. I went to a birthday party and met a few of them, the other weekend. Confident Leavers. The James Goldsmiths of today.

I don't move in such circles. The Saturday after the Brexit vote I went to a wedding party in Arkley - millionaires, as opposed to billionaires - and the mood was funereal.

Did you keep your head down or gloat?

I was too polite to gloat. I made sympathetic murmurings..

I notice that Arkley is in 62% Remain Barnet.

I wonder if they would have felt different if they had lived in Luton or Broxbourne ?

I think the result really punctured the comfort zone of some people.

Speedy

On topic.

No, it's just OGH and TSE ramping their party.

Mortimer

I used to do quite a bit of business in and around the Witney constitutency. 5-10 days a year there.

Willing to pin my colours to the mast on this one. It will be a safe hold: Old fashioned Tory county set, strong suburban Oxford (and London commuter) contingent and quite a strong LMC element too.

Tories by 17.5-22.5%.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/788477758871601152

RobD

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/788477758871601152

At the end of the negotiations. Parliament are hardly going to vote down the deal, given that the alternative would be WTO most favoured nation.

Speedy

Gardenwalker said:

Any predix?

I'm going with (%)
Con 50
Lib Dem 20
Labour 15
Others inc UKIP 15

If the LDs got to 25/30 and knocked the Cons to early 40s, it would be quite the upset.

No way can LDs win this though.

I see the Wessex nationalists stood last time. I always thought Wessex stopped the other side of the Thames; had Oxfordshire down as a kind of Midland county.

I can't see how the Tories will do much worse than the national polling in one of the safest Tory seats in the country, even in a by-election facing the dead LD and Labour.

chestnut

Does The Independent (or Faisal Islam) ever talk about anything else ?

BigRich

Mortimer said:

I used to do quite a bit of business in and around the Witney constitutency. 5-10 days a year there.

Willing to pin my colours to the mast on this one. It will be a safe hold: Old fashioned Tory county set, strong suburban Oxford (and London commuter) contingent and quite a strong LMC element too.

Tories by 17.5-22.5%.

What is LMC?

chestnut

Speedy said:

Gardenwalker said:

Any predix?

I'm going with (%)
Con 50
Lib Dem 20
Labour 15
Others inc UKIP 15

If the LDs got to 25/30 and knocked the Cons to early 40s, it would be quite the upset.

No way can LDs win this though.

I see the Wessex nationalists stood last time. I always thought Wessex stopped the other side of the Thames; had Oxfordshire down as a kind of Midland county.

I can't see how the Tories will do much worse than the national polling in one of the safest Tory seats in the country, even in a by-election facing the dead LD and Labour.

It will be an interesting pointer to see where Tory and UKIP shares go when the Tory is a Leaver.

We could also do with an election where a key candidate is a Remainer in a leave constituency - just to see the dynamics in action.

Scott_P

RobD said:

At the end of the negotiations. Parliament are hardly going to vote down the deal, given that the alternative would be WTO most favoured nation.

Depends on the timing.

If the vote is the day before the deadline, that's true, but if the deal is reached with 6 months to spare Parliament could tell them to try again

Speedy

Pulpstar said:

Pong said:

Pulpstar said:

Pong said:

Michelle Obama zooms back into 650/1

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419

Those odds would still be crap value even if hillary fell under a bus.

Sigh if only you could bet on credit with Betfair

As is it'll return less than the mortgage

(-2.4k+ on her atm btw)

Do you see the third debate changing the Trump/Clinton odds?

Ooh Blimey, I'm not sure - I've been tilted towards Trump for ages, he could completely flop but he could come in...

I think I'll leave (+2 Clinton, +14 Trump) ish...

As I said 50 state polls are crap, so here is yougov's 50 state poll, where if Trump wins the 3rd debate it might lead him to a lead:

https://today.yougov.com/us-election/

Actually, this 50 state poll has nothing particularly odd, apart from Georgia, Pennsylvania and Florida being toss-ups at the same time.

RobD

Scott_P said:

RobD said:

At the end of the negotiations. Parliament are hardly going to vote down the deal, given that the alternative would be WTO most favoured nation.

Depends on the timing.

If the vote is the day before the deadline, that's true, but if the deal is reached with 6 months to spare Parliament could tell them to try again

After two years of negotiation? Surely the negotiating team would be trying to get the best deal possible, rather than leaving some slack to satisfy those in Parliament.

glw

chestnut said:

Does The Independent (or Faisal Islam) ever talk about anything else ?

They certainly seem to be going down the click bait path that many other online "newspapers" have already trod.

Sean_F

another_richard said:

Sean_F said:

GIN1138 said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cookie said:

Eagles, I say this in all politeness, and your threads are always, of course, interesting, but you seem a wee bit obsessed by Europe presently. Mike spent six or seven years repeatedly assuring us that Europe wasn't a subject high up people's radar - I'd suggest that inasmuch as this was ever true it still is. Yes, the subject is salient, but I don't think the country as a whole is quite as bothered about Europe as your repeated threads on Europe would imply.

Brexit is a salient issue, in some polls conducted over the summer Brexit/EU matters was rated the number one issue among voters.

There is a huge disjunct between the political and Twittering classes and the people here. Brexit obsesses the media and pols (me included), not so much the voters.

That said, on my recent trip to t'West Country I overheard three separate Brexit conversations (unlike the zero I have heard in London, in recent weeks).

There was a young man bemused and a bit angry about Brexit, there was an old woman absolutely furious about being called a racist for voting Leave, and there was some posh huntin' shootin' and fishin' dude who was quietly pleased with the result (reinforcing my supposition that the upper crust are surprisingly Leave-y)

Also, Cornwall is majorly Brexit, with few regrets. Even the arty types are quite Brexit.

Not surprising. Overall, about 43% of well-off voters supported Brexit. In rural Devon and Cornwall, the proportion would be above 50%.

Yep.

But as I noted on here, the REALLY really rich in London - I'm talking literal billionaires, the Sunday Times Top 100 - are also oddly Brexit. I went to a birthday party and met a few of them, the other weekend. Confident Leavers. The James Goldsmiths of today.

I don't move in such circles. The Saturday after the Brexit vote I went to a wedding party in Arkley - millionaires, as opposed to billionaires - and the mood was funereal.

Did you keep your head down or gloat?

I was too polite to gloat. I made sympathetic murmurings..

I notice that Arkley is in 62% Remain Barnet.

I wonder if they would have felt different if they had lived in Luton or Broxbourne ?

I think the result really punctured the comfort zone of some people.

High Barnet Ward was probably close to 75% Remain. Underhill, nearer 50%. Arkley is split between the two. The rich live at the top of the hill, in and around Barnet Road, the working classes down towards Mays Lane.

SandyRentool

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/788477758871601152

Never mind the Brexit article - they make it appear that the 4 people at the top of the page are the IS human shields!

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/788480406773460992

Speedy

SeanT said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/788477758871601152

Bad reporting. The indy is a joke. The MPs will get to vote on the deal, not Brexit itself.

This does, however, point to Soft Brexit...

MP's could be offered a choice after Article 50 is triggered, vote for the deal or we go out with no deal at all.

Between Remainers having a choice of Leave without a deal or Leave with the deal, they will choose the deal.

Dromedary

(deleted)

Philip_Thompson

SeanT said:

Speedy said:

SeanT said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/788477758871601152

Bad reporting. The indy is a joke. The MPs will get to vote on the deal, not Brexit itself.

This does, however, point to Soft Brexit...

MP's could be offered a choice after Article 50 is triggered, vote for the deal or we go out with no deal at all.

Between Remainers having a choice of Leave without a deal or Leave with the deal, they will choose the deal.

But the deal is more likely to be Soft Brexit, when May knows that she needs MPs' approval at the end.

Not necessarily. If May presents a deal of Hard Brexit with a trade agreement versus Hard Brexit complete cold turkey WTO if the deal is voted down then the Commons will still realistically need to approve the Hard Brexit trade deal ...

JennyFreeman

The Remoaners are so sad.

Pong

Pulpstar said:

Pong said:

Pulpstar said:

Pong said:

Michelle Obama zooms back into 650/1

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419

Those odds would still be crap value even if hillary fell under a bus.

Sigh if only you could bet on credit with Betfair

As is it'll return less than the mortgage

(-2.4k+ on her atm btw)

Do you see the third debate changing the Trump/Clinton odds?

Ooh Blimey, I'm not sure - I've been tilted towards Trump for ages, he could completely flop but he could come in...

I think I'll leave (+2 Clinton, +14 Trump) ish...

Yeah. I've mulled over having a bet on trump pre-debate - but on the polling evidence, Clinton remains value @ 1.2 and should probably be more like 1.1.

I think there is a reasonable chance Trump does well tonight (and his odds creep in a bit), but I'm not going to bet on it.

btw, this survey of pollsters by 538 is great;

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/top-pollsters-expect-clinton-to-win/

"On average, polls conducted within the final 21 days before the election — a period which in 2016 is this Tuesday — differ from the final result by 3.6 percentage points. Far more pollsters think that gap will be larger this year than average than think it will be smaller: 11 to 1. Another 18 think it will be about the same. "

I'll factor that into my betting. Average polling error of >3.6%.

Note - I don't think that's the same as saying the poll average is more likely than not to be out by more than 3.6%.

Speedy

SeanT said:

Speedy said:

SeanT said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/788477758871601152

Bad reporting. The indy is a joke. The MPs will get to vote on the deal, not Brexit itself.

This does, however, point to Soft Brexit...

MP's could be offered a choice after Article 50 is triggered, vote for the deal or we go out with no deal at all.

Between Remainers having a choice of Leave without a deal or Leave with the deal, they will choose the deal.

But the deal is more likely to be Soft Brexit, when May knows that she needs MPs' approval at the end.

If Article 50 is triggered and that is the only deal on offer for MP's, Remainers will vote for it regardless if it's Soft or Hard, since it will be the only thing on the menu.

FrancisUrquhart

SeanT said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/788477758871601152

Bad reporting. The indy is a joke. The MPs will get to vote on the deal, not Brexit itself.

This does, however, point to Soft Brexit...

I am not sure why that is even aheadline...Damien green said that MPs would get a vote on any deal on last week's QT. He didn't say perhaps or could, he said they would .

another_richard

Sean_F said:

another_richard said:

Sean_F said:

GIN1138 said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

Not surprising. Overall, about 43% of well-off voters supported Brexit. In rural Devon and Cornwall, the proportion would be above 50%.

Yep.

But as I noted on here, the REALLY really rich in London - I'm talking literal billionaires, the Sunday Times Top 100 - are also oddly Brexit. I went to a birthday party and met a few of them, the other weekend. Confident Leavers. The James Goldsmiths of today.

I don't move in such circles. The Saturday after the Brexit vote I went to a wedding party in Arkley - millionaires, as opposed to billionaires - and the mood was funereal.

Did you keep your head down or gloat?

I was too polite to gloat. I made sympathetic murmurings..

I notice that Arkley is in 62% Remain Barnet.

I wonder if they would have felt different if they had lived in Luton or Broxbourne ?

I think the result really punctured the comfort zone of some people.

High Barnet Ward was probably close to 75% Remain. Underhill, nearer 50%. Arkley is split between the two. The rich live at the top of the hill, in and around Barnet Road, the working classes down towards Mays Lane.

I'm surprised to see how much the population of Barnet borough has increased:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Borough_of_Barnet#Demographics

Has there been significant new house building or are parts of the borough becoming a sh1thole ?

Speedy

Pong said:

Pulpstar said:

Pong said:

Pulpstar said:

Pong said:

Michelle Obama zooms back into 650/1

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419

Those odds would still be crap value even if hillary fell under a bus.

Sigh if only you could bet on credit with Betfair

As is it'll return less than the mortgage

(-2.4k+ on her atm btw)

Do you see the third debate changing the Trump/Clinton odds?

Ooh Blimey, I'm not sure - I've been tilted towards Trump for ages, he could completely flop but he could come in...

I think I'll leave (+2 Clinton, +14 Trump) ish...

Yeah. I've mulled over having a bet on trump pre-debate - but on the polling evidence, Clinton remains value @ 1.2 and should probably be more like 1.1.

I think there is a reasonable chance Trump does well tonight (and his odds creep in a bit), but I'm not going to bet on it.

btw, this survey of pollsters by 538 is great;

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/top-pollsters-expect-clinton-to-win/

"On average, polls conducted within the final 21 days before the election — a period which in 2016 is this Tuesday — differ from the final result by 3.6 percentage points. Far more pollsters think that gap will be larger this year than average than think it will be smaller: 11 to 1. Another 18 think it will be about the same. "

I'll factor that into my betting. Average polling error of >3.6%.

Note - I don't think that's the same as saying the poll average is more likely than not to be out by more than 3.6%.

So pollsters expect Hillary to win but say their polls will probably be wrong ?

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/788452647535775744

AlastairMeeks

Someone very close to Whitney is keen on exercising My Prerogative. Sadly, he fell foul of the law.

TheWhiteRabbit

I'm getting bored of Brexit now. The average voter, in two years time, is going to be bored senseless.