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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON lead with YouGov down to 5 percent once again

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,793

    Patrick said:

    Can anyone understand why moving from Faslane would cost 10bn?

    This seems to me a public sector 10,000 quid for a hammer kind of cost estimate.

    There is a lot of infrastructure there - in particular hardened bunkers for the warheads at Coulport which have been built up over half a century since the days of Polaris - so moving it will not be cheap - but perhaps now the MOD has had it's "sovereign territory" kite shot down it will do some serious contingency planning.

    The MOD have, however, added to the gaiety of the nation by letting Sturgeon claim Scotland was being bullied and the Nats on here being outflanked by the Unionists in describing the idea as silly - to their evident frustration.....
    I'm not a defence expert but the obvious way to handle the logistics would be to move the base to the existing facilities at King's Bay.
    Not according to a CND report (I know ...)

    "Moving Trident to the US or France would not be viable, because the nuclear non-proliferation treaty would prevent the UK from using existing facilities there and new ones would have to be built."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/jan/29/trident-nuclear-deterrent-scotland-independence
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,925

    I think the slightly better Con polling in the last couple of weeks may be partly the result of the gay marriage furore fading. A lot of supporters were very dischuffed by Cameron's position on that.

    Hi Richard,

    In my view it's not just the Tories polling slightly better in the last few weeks (though they are) it's also the fact that Labour's share has been gradually on the slide since Febuary as you can see in this graph;

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

    The UKIP surge masked it a lot through spring, but we're approaching nearly six months of a gradually sliding Labour share. With the economy now recovering it's hard to see quite what Labour can do to reverse this slide, IMO.
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    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited July 2013
    @DavidL
    You are wrong on this. See [154]-[156] at pp. 60-61 of Decision pursuant to Article 10 of Protocol 36 to The Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union Cm 8671.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    Green shoots?

    In London, without question. In fact, probably a boom. When I am down there you can feel the energy, with all the building work, the house prices rocketing and so on.

    Elsewhere, it's harder to see.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,155
    DavidL said:

    When you look through it the basic concept seems to be to stop somebody passing things that were in the Lisbon Treaty, only changing them so they have less unanimity and more QMV etc. This isn't much of a practical break on the actual next steps in European integration because if the member states were going to do those things, they'd have included them in the Lisbon Treaty.

    In the sense that the idiots who were in power from 1997 to 2010 had thrown away the protections which any sane government would have kept, yes, you are right.

    But we started from where we were in May 2010. It's hardly the coalition's fault that that was such a bad position. Blame Brown and Blair.
    I am a lawyer although no expert on EU law. As I have said before I think the government has a serious problem here. Section 6(3) provides:
    "A Minister of the Crown may not give a notification under Article 4 of Protocol (No. 21) on the position of the United Kingdom and Ireland in respect of the area of freedom, security and justice annexed to TEU and TFEU which relates to participation by the United Kingdom in a European Public Prosecutor's Office or an extension of the powers of that Office unless—.
    (a)the notification has been approved by Act of Parliament, and.
    (b)the referendum condition is met.."

    If we had been able to stay in these provisions nothing would have happened but if the view is taken (as I understand it) that we need to opt out of all of the provisions and then opt back in to those that we like then that opting in will in my view trigger these provisions and require a referendum. I am not really seeing how they get around this unless they don't actually withdraw from the provisions in the first place.

    The EAW sounds like quite a good thing to have a referendum on. The pros and cons are fairly easy to understand, and it's reasonably clear what would happen in either case, and neither result would be particularly disastrous in the grand scheme of things (although they'll be disastrous for some unlucky individuals whichever way it goes).

    Maybe the government should just agree to one. I know it's not really what the UKIPpers are after, but it might help persuade them they were going to get the referendum they really do want...
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @edmundintokyo The Hungarians are not crazy-person-administered. They have a cynical political cadre, and you may not like what they do (I don't), but there's nothing crazy about the Hungarian political classes. Viktor Orbán is as smart a politician as any in the UK. He knows exactly what he's doing.

    There is a worryingly large lunatic fringe to Hungarian politics, but that's not that unexpected in a country that's been essentially bust for at least five years. Golden Dawn are doing fairly well in Greece too.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    http://www.oecd.org/fr/std/stats-entreprises/entrepreneurshipataglance.htm

    Stunning figures.

    Green shoots?

    In London, without question. In fact, probably a boom. When I am down there you can feel the energy, with all the building work, the house prices rocketing and so on.

    Elsewhere, it's harder to see.

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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Plato said:

    Danny Shaw @DannyShawBBC
    Dominic Grieve, Attorney General, decides to refer the sentence of Stuart Hall to the Court of Appeal for review.

    Excellent.

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    FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    edited July 2013

    Not according to a CND report (I know ...)

    "Moving Trident to the US or France would not be viable, because the nuclear non-proliferation treaty would prevent the UK from using existing facilities there and new ones would have to be built."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/jan/29/trident-nuclear-deterrent-scotland-independence

    Yeah, but!

    As EiT correctly points out the Royal Navy already has established facilities in Kings Bay. Further, following the Lancaster House (2010) agreement, warhead maintenance* is due to be transfered (albeit with sovereign safe-guards) to France, so the devil-is-in-the-detail.

    Ergo: 2017. Warheads placed in extended maintenance in France whilst ships boats** dock in Georgia. As for the missiles, D-II is already a shared-pool....

    * Research and Development is due to be undertaken - within sovereign limits - in the UK IIRC.
    ** Oops!
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,416

    @DavidL - Interesting observation.

    If you are right, or even if there is just the possibility that you might be right, then I'd have thought someone is bound to launch a judicial review. Could get interesting...

    It may be that I am wrong. There are provisions in respect of s9 which allows the adoption of enhanced co-operation and security after approval by both Houses of Parliament and it may be that they have been careful enough to select provisions that don't fall within the s6 provisions but given the effect of some of the provisions I think it is at least arguable that adoption should trigger a referendum.

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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,416
    Anyway cheer up everyone, things could be worse, you could be Australian.

    This much vaunted tail of theirs seems to be getting blown away this morning.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,155
    edited July 2013
    antifrank said:

    @edmundintokyo The Hungarians are not crazy-person-administered. They have a cynical political cadre, and you may not like what they do (I don't), but there's nothing crazy about the Hungarian political classes. Viktor Orbán is as smart a politician as any in the UK. He knows exactly what he's doing.

    There is a worryingly large lunatic fringe to Hungarian politics, but that's not that unexpected in a country that's been essentially bust for at least five years. Golden Dawn are doing fairly well in Greece too.

    Fair enough. But either way, "28 people all get a veto, including the maddest ones" is a really bad way of running an organization.
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    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited July 2013
    JackW said:

    Plato said:

    Danny Shaw @DannyShawBBC
    Dominic Grieve, Attorney General, decides to refer the sentence of Stuart Hall to the Court of Appeal for review.

    Excellent.
    Now that the application for a section 36 reference has been made, it looks as if recent speculation in The Times, that the hearing of the application by the Court of
    Appeal (Criminal Division) may be televised (provided that section 32 of the Crime and Courts Act 2013 has entered into force) may prove accurate.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Aussie batsmen falling like UNITE candidates and Labour's share of VI.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    DavidL said:

    Anyway cheer up everyone, things could be worse, you could be Australian.

    This much vaunted tail of theirs seems to be getting blown away this morning.

    If our batsmen can just show a bit of application this could be the first time we win the opening game in an Ashes series for many a long year (this century?). Should we bat until the end of tomorrow it may be a killer blow for the whole summer.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,793

    Green shoots?

    In London, without question. In fact, probably a boom. When I am down there you can feel the energy, with all the building work, the house prices rocketing and so on.

    Elsewhere, it's harder to see.

    I was struck by the number of cranes I saw last time I was in London, but when I ask my friends oop North how things are they say "grim"..

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,793
    "Revealed: The 'three bees' badge fed-up Tory MPs and ministers will wear to show they have been 'Bol****ed By Bercow'

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2359812/Revealed-The-bees-badge-fed-Tory-MPs-ministers-wear-Bol--ed-By-Bercow.html#ixzz2Yjf4IddM
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,416

    DavidL said:

    Anyway cheer up everyone, things could be worse, you could be Australian.

    This much vaunted tail of theirs seems to be getting blown away this morning.

    If our batsmen can just show a bit of application this could be the first time we win the opening game in an Ashes series for many a long year (this century?). Should we bat until the end of tomorrow it may be a killer blow for the whole summer.
    Both these teams seem to have been playing too much of the short stuff. Australia will be struggling to get their 50 overs out. England's batsmen were far too gung ho yesterday. When Trott is scoring most of his runs in boundaries something is not right.

    2005 this isn't in terms of quality but you can't say it's not exciting.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    OT This is a rather remarkable promo for a product that repels water

    http://www.adweek.com/adfreak/watch-most-bafflingly-awesome-new-product-demo-2013-so-far-151088
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    Disgraceful bowling.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Aus up to 164, last wicket partnership of 47. Come on guys, get it done!
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    PB cricket boffins, when was last time a number 11 top scored in an innings?
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978

    Disgraceful bowling.

    Unbelievably bad from Finn. But Agar looks a good batsman. If he can bowl too the Aussies have a real find.

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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    Green shoots?

    In London, without question. In fact, probably a boom. When I am down there you can feel the energy, with all the building work, the house prices rocketing and so on.

    Elsewhere, it's harder to see.

    I was struck by the number of cranes I saw last time I was in London, but when I ask my friends oop North how things are they say "grim"..

    Sometimes I feel like a lot of it is down to people's attitudes. In London there is a relentless energy about people, nothing can bring them down and I don't see people blaming their surroundings or events for their own problems. I don't know how it is outside of London, but within the M25 there is definitely a completely different, attitude of "I don't care what anyone says, I will be successful". That's why it's so attractive for French entrepreneurs compared to Paris.
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    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited July 2013
    @SouthamObserver
    Yet another short ball from Finn. Yet another boundary. Agar's bowling didn't look too good yesterday, but given his batting ability, the Australians may as well put him in the top half of the order.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Awful from Finn here. Agar is just clubbing these boundaries.
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    Green shoots?

    In London, without question. In fact, probably a boom. When I am down there you can feel the energy, with all the building work, the house prices rocketing and so on.

    Elsewhere, it's harder to see.

    I was struck by the number of cranes I saw last time I was in London, but when I ask my friends oop North how things are they say "grim"..

    London does seem to benefit massively from the willingness of foreign governments to invest in its businesses and infrastructure. Having spent a fair bit of time in the Middle East you did get the feeling that because London was seen as being a very 'fashionable' city there were occassions when investment decisons weren't made 100% on commercial grounds.

    If they have their fingers burnt on a few deals in London it'll be interesting to see if the soverign wealth funds of places like Qatar and Kuwait look at investments elsewhere in the UK.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978

    @SouthamObserver
    Yet another short ball from Finn. Yet another boundary. Agar's bowling didn't look too good yesterday, but given his batting ability, the Australians may as well put him in the top half of the order.

    Truly shocking captaincy from Cook. Finn has gone for 80 out of a total of 178!

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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tim said:

    Rather misleading Sun headline:

    Bulging Britain
    400,000 Bulgarians on way..UK No1 choice

    Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5007507/UK-revealed-as-top-destination-for-Bulgarian-emigrants.html#ixzz2YicnSfnW

    And when you do read more.....the UK figure is ~80,000.....and UK is the "joint" No. 1 choice - along with Germany.....

    Oh no, massive population loss


    48% of Brits want to get out of the UK
    Shock Sun survey shows almost half are ready to emigrate overseas

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/features/4257682/48-of-Brits-want-to-get-out-of-Britain-says-new-Sun-survey.html
    How can someone like you tim speak on a subject like this,you can't,you don't live in a overcrowded high immigration area ,until you do,no one should listen to you.

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    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited July 2013

    @SouthamObserver
    Yet another short ball from Finn. Yet another boundary. Agar's bowling didn't look too good yesterday, but given his batting ability, the Australians may as well put him in the top half of the order.

    Truly shocking captaincy from Cook. Finn has gone for 80 out of a total of 178!
    That Broad isn't bowling despite being on the field is a touch perplexing.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Last wicket stand with a run rate of over 5. What the hell Cook, get Jimmy back on and send them packing.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    MaxPB said:

    Last wicket stand with a run rate of over 5. What the hell Cook, get Jimmy back on and send them packing.

    It's not a bad wicket. There will be absolutely no excuses for the England batsmen.

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    Off topic: WTF is the IMF playing at in the Eurozone?

    The IMF is there to help countries, not to help currencies. Right now the IMF, under its French boss, is actually damaging countries in order to help keep the Euro alive that little bit longer. This fatally compromises the credibility and impartiality of a vital international body.

    A quick peek at the wiki page told me that the Eurozone countries contribute 19.5% of the IMF’s funding and get 19.5% of the votes. What are the other 80.5% supposed to make of giving money to the GIPSIs and enforcing the usual spending control disciplines but without also requiring the usual devaluation and liberalization requirements (that are impossible within the Euro)? The Eurozone periphery is in an inescapable debt spiral, it’s passed the event horizon. Lending money to insolvent sovereigns is not what IMF money should be used for without demanding that the causes behind the insolvency be repaired. For the GIPSIs that will mean leaving the Euro. Shock horror. (Would be their salvation).

    I think the UK should demand a new MD for the IMF (Lagarde is deep in French bribery ordure anyway) and push for a vote (led by the other 80.5%) to stop pissing international money up the Euro wall. Time for a non-European MD methinks before the IMF loses itself.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631


    It's not a bad wicket. There will be absolutely no excuses for the England batsmen.

    Definitely not, looks like it could produce a big score, but neither side have the batting line up to take advantage right now.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,110
    Oh dear:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23272708

    Justice Secretary Chris Grayling has asked the Serious Fraud Office to investigate G4S for overcharging for tagging criminals in England and Wales.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,416
    edited July 2013
    Agar is the first debutante no 11 to get a half century ever. Will he ever play at number 11 again? He needs to think seriously about whether he keeps up the bowling. Did KP not start as a spinner?
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited July 2013
    @CarlottaVance

    'But that's your problem tim...it's now more frequent than "weekly"......the last double digit lead was a fortnight ago.....we've had six 5/6 leads since then...'

    This is the mass membership surge wee Timmy has been telling us about.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Hampshire Lib Dem councillor defects to Conservatives

    The councillors Quote on why he is leaving the lib dems is -

    He says the Lib Dems are "shambolic" and "extremely unpleasant."

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/localgovernment/2013/07/hampshire-lib-dem-councillor-defects-to-conservatives.html
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    DavidL said:

    Anyway cheer up everyone, things could be worse, you could be Australian.

    This much vaunted tail of theirs seems to be getting blown away this morning.

    For posterity.

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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,083

    @SouthamObserver
    Yet another short ball from Finn. Yet another boundary. Agar's bowling didn't look too good yesterday, but given his batting ability, the Australians may as well put him in the top half of the order.

    Truly shocking captaincy from Cook. Finn has gone for 80 out of a total of 178!
    That Broad isn't bowling despite being on the field is a touch perplexing.
    Beefy has just said that Broad is struggling to throw using his bowling arm.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    I hope noone has sold this last innings partnership on the SPIN, if you have you'd be crying into your beer on the phone to wonga.com right now.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Almost a century last wicket stand. What the hell Cook? Why is Broad still just standing around?!?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    MaxPB said:

    Almost a century last wicket stand. What the hell Cook? Why is Broad still just standing around?!?

    Injured, like Geraint in the TdF.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,416
    I really don't believe this. A lead??
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tim said:

    @Tykejonno.

    As you don't live in a highly populated area (population density of Bradford Urban is half that
    of Inner London) why are you commenting?

    I bet you have never been to Bradford,I remember last year,when you posted something about Bradfords population in which you got it wrong.

    In the last 2 to 3 years in my area,the immigration from eastern Europe as been overwhelming,I see it with my own eyes matey not someone like you who bangs on everythings fine living in your lovely middleclass area.

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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Plato said:

    I see EdM has managed to get on the cover of Private Eye

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BO4Hz_UCUAAGUXV.jpg:large

    @Plato Ouch. :)

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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Hampshire Lib Dem councillor defects to Conservatives

    The councillors Quote on why he is leaving the lib dems is -

    He says the Lib Dems are "shambolic" and "extremely unpleasant."

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/localgovernment/2013/07/hampshire-lib-dem-councillor-defects-to-conservatives.html

    He resigned after losing his bid to become leader of Lib Dems on Whitehill TC . I particularly like his Email to fellow councillors ( BEFORE that election )
    " This is a democratic process and members are expected to support their winning colleagues. I hope that those that lose don't take it to heart but try again another day " .

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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    No peace for our Denis.

    “Having thoroughly reviewed the evidence gathered by the police, I have decided there is sufficient evidence and it is in the public interest to bring a criminal charge against Denis MacShane. This charge relates to fraudulent claims with a total value of £12,900.

    “The charge is of false accounting, contrary to the Theft Act 1968. It is alleged that Denis Macshane claimed expenses for research and translation services carried out by a company that did not carry out that work.”
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