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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON lead with YouGov down to 5 percent once again
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON lead with YouGov down to 5 percent once again
Once again the Sun has not disappointed us. Generally we have to wait until 6am for its daily YouGov poll to be released by the pollster. But if it is good for the blues then, like now, it is Tweeted early.
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It's not quite a trend yet but when the main (and because of the ConDem coalition) virtually only westminster opposition party spends more time opposing itself than the government then this sort of thing is only going to get worse for them. Falkirk is a symptom not the cause.
Lab 353
Con 245
LD 26
Others 26
Lab maj — 56, (ie. 28 seats over the winning post).
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swing-calculator
Hung Parliament #2 here we come...
Tories will win the popular vote...
Local councils in many parts of Britain are
cutting some of their services. Thinking about
the area where you live, which of these
statements comes closest to your view?
Central government is mainly responsible, because
it is cutting sharply the money it gives to the council
where I live: 37(-4)
My local council is mainly responsible, because it
could achieve most of the savings it needs by
cutting costs, without cutting services: 31(+3)
Neither - I am not aware of significant cuts to
services in my area: 21(+1)
DK: 11(0)
Meanwhile, Suzanne Moore succeeds in a single article to get me nodding vigorously in agreement and rolling my eyes in quick succession:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jul/10/people-lost-interest-party-politics
Least surprising revelation in the article: "most of my friends work in the public sector".
On another note, it's overcast and vaguely cool in Leamington this morning. Let's hope there are similar conditions in Nottingham for most of the day and that England's bowlers can continue to dig our lamentable batsmen out of the hole they created for themselves.
All the calculations below for this poll as well as others recently are really worthless as to where we will all be in 2015. If a week is a long time in politics, then 20 odd months is eons away. Even trends are useless until all pollsters stop ignoring UKIP and treat the party seriously on equall terms with the other three.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/m0tyw8kzfq/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Voting-Trends-with-UKIP-100713.pdf
and C Vance,
time to do
their daily dance
about the polls,
when all we want to do,
is go on our bloody hols.
'10 Baby Boomer 'entitlements' today's youth won't have
HSBC chief economist Stephen King claims rich Baby Boomers (those born between 1946 and 1964) are behaving like the nobility in the Peasants’ Revolt and risk an uprising by the younger generation. We look at 10 'entitlements' they have enjoyed:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10171591/10-Baby-Boomer-entitlements-todays-youth-wont-have.html
CON MAJ still 4/1
Police called to UK's tallest building, the Shard in central London, as attempt to scale it made by six people.
Well it had to happen sooner rather than later. I wonder if SeanT is one of the climbers?
Read more at http://www.nowmagazine.co.uk/celebrity-news/546114/ed-miliband-my-brother-david-is-hotter-that-s-not-what-my-wife-says#6wRIvOjHVX7FqyTU.99
The ITV photo editor on the other hand:
Ed Miliband: Being compared to Wallace 'just a bit of fun'
http://www.itv.com/news/2013-07-11/ed-miliband-opens-up-about-family-fashion-and-romance/
Has Cameron done an interview with "Now"?
SNP incoming :
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-23265886
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23265391
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/413955/Astonishing-How-officials-missed-enough-immigrants-to-fill-Manchester
All those Lab/lib/Con supporters on PB digesting those immigration statistics. Yes! A lot of food for thought there.
It's a little unreasonable to blame the coalition entirely for this.
CV,
I totally agree, think of all the things this deprived generation doesn't have that we took for granted ...
Polio and an iron lung, tuberculosis, the risk of smallpox, smog, the threat of instant annihilation from Russia, nuclear testing, beginning work at fifteen - a five and half day week.
And what have the poor dears got instead ....
Central heating, carpets, fridges, television, cars, foreign holidays, mobile phones, gap years, sex and a wide selection of drugs.
Yes, my heart bleeds. Something must be done.
Apart from 6 months in 2010 I think you'll find the Coalition wasn't the government of the day. Vote UKIP to control our bladders.
Before the crash in '08 didn't Cammo say that they'd match the government in spending?
Well a lot of that was on immigration. Mouthings of a wet flabby red-faced codfish!
Slightly surprised by the sovereign territory idea. However, if Scotland votes for separation and there's no sovereign territory deal over Faslane then the costs of relocation should be part of separation negotiations. Hopefully it won't come to that.
"This afternoon, a Commons select committee interrogated, among others, Lucy Adams, the BBC’s head of HR. Her salary, apparently – I won’t ask you to guess, or we’ll be here all day – is £320,000. Among her duties was to dole out severance pay to Mark Byford, the BBC’s former Deputy Director General. That severance pay was £949,000. So essentially the BBC paid one person £320,000 to give another person £949,000.
Still, the exchanges was quite entertaining to watch, in a way. When Hollywood finally comes to make a blockbuster film about the Public Accounts Committee’s investigations into BBC severance pay – and, given the clamour from cinema-goers and critics alike, it’s only a matter of time – we can expect to see some serious talent in the lead roles.
In the role of Margaret Hodge, the committee’s chairman, I can see Penelope Keith, or Patricia Routledge. But even actresses of their calibre won’t find it easy to capture Lady Hodge’s towering hauteur. Her every sigh suggests that everyone present is wasting her time and where in heaven’s name is that silly girl with that coffee she ordered, it must be half an hour ago now at least.
The role of Lord Patten, meanwhile, was clearly made for Roger Allam, who is already acclaimed for his performance in an eerily similar role as Peter Mannion MP in The Thick of It. The droll disdain, the deadpan exasperation, the just-about-contained irritability… It’s got to be Allam all the way. (This afternoon an MP asked Lord Patten whether he planned to extend his stay as BBC Trust chairman. “So that I could enjoy appearing in front of the Public Accounts Committee even more regularly?” he replied, dry as a cat’s tongue.)..." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10172309/Sketch-BBC-pay-offs-fail-to-pay-off.html
(But I agree with you. The cost should be part of the overall settlement though)
So if Labour is not for unionised workers (the public sector payroll vote), or for business or for aspiring white van men - then who is Labour for? Labour under Redward is fast becoming the home for Fabian Islington wonks, BBC/ Guardianista types, sofa chavs and Cheshire farmers. His class war PMQ line yesterday sits ill at ease with this. In fact - just WTF is Labour for these days?
Policy incoherence and Redward's face will only get more visible in the run up to 2015. Another hung parliament looms.
Well written but this really is not funny. The BBC spends taxpayer's money and those responsible for wasting millions on unnecessary payouts should be sacked and sued.
In Scotland my local paper has been running a long story about the level of payoffs received by those leaving local government. Once again completely unjustifiable and without any sense of commercial reality. People within a year of retirement are receiving two or more year's salary as an incentive to retire early. Oh and any pension shortfall is made up as well.
The fundamental problem in both is that those making the decisions to pay have a vested interest in keeping this merry go round going until it is their turn. We seriously need some Admiral Byngs to stop this. The PAC are doing a good job but there is a limit to their powers and more direct action is needed.
Mr. Dickson, I was simply using correct English for a theoretical post-partition matter. No need to get excited.
The last 40 years would tend to teach us that the wisest strategists are on the Scottish side. After all, Donald Dewar pulled a total blinder on the normally canny Blair.
You must be mistaken. Barking mad lunatic posturing like that could never be a bad idea if the PB Tories cheer it on. When are they ever wrong?
Have you learned nothing from the scottish tory surge?
*tears of laughter etc.*
New balls please, I laughed the old ones off.
BBC: "He added that the women climbers were all well trained and that it was not dangerous. If they manage to get to the top of the building, they plan on installing a piece of art."
Clever Greenpeace, guarantees acres of coverage in the papers, much, much moreso than a Spiderman suit.
Art? God help us.
I continue to have reservations about Yougov generally and these online polls from what must be a seriously exhausted bank of respondents who may by that process alone be becoming atypical of the population (who simply do not think about politics as often as these people are being asked). We seriously need some new information from reputable traditional pollsters to even give a clear sense of direction.
According to Yougov Labour's vote is holding up remarkably well in the face of a huge retreat on economic policy and civil war with the unions. If that is true then their vote is not as soft as some (including me) suggested. The tory vote is surprisingly high for this stage in a Parliament too, especially as the economic news has only turned better relatively recently.
In 2012 the scottish conservatives lost 20 per cent of their councillors, saw their vote fall to 13.31 per cent and local representation cut dramatically or even wiped out in some areas.
If that's not a scottish tory surge then what is?
The more you think about it within the historical context, the more remarkable next September's referendum becomes.
(By the way, we have not "decided to leave" just yet. We are still thinking about it.)
Bulging Britain
400,000 Bulgarians on way..UK No1 choice
Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5007507/UK-revealed-as-top-destination-for-Bulgarian-emigrants.html#ixzz2YicnSfnW
And when you do read more.....the UK figure is ~80,000.....and UK is the "joint" No. 1 choice - along with Germany.....
http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-oil-debate-for-busy-people/
*chortle*
C'mon chaps, stiff upper lip and all that. Can't show the Jocks that we are irresolute.
You raise a good point - what frequency of polls is required to show a trend?
Also if a monthly poll shows a very significant difference to their last poll - is it an outlier or a real change? We may not know until the next month. Types of MAT graphs are useful here.
You say, "We seriously need some new information from reputable traditional pollsters to even give a clear sense of direction. "
Somehow Peter Kellner of YouGov may not agree with your sentiment. Did you omit the word "other" before "reputable"?
I believe that the YouGov panel is far, far larger than you may think.
An indy Scotland will have to start from scratch. I'm not someone who believes that Alba won't get into EU or NATO, but I do believe it won't get in on the current terms and will have to surrender many of the opt outs the UK has negotiated. ( all that fishing and seabed might end up communautaire ) So you'll simply send more money to Brussels rather than London. Plus ca change.
All this daily polling stuff is simply idiotic. A waste of everybody's time and money. Except, of course, for the owners, managers and staff of the polling companies. They love it.
Genius.
Genius.
Their timing is perfect.
Westminster donkeys: the gift that keeps on giving.
Genius.
Utter madness. Let's hope Cam (or whomever has the option) uses the nuclear option and just vetoes the entire budget.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BO4Hz_UCUAAGUXV.jpg:large
Dan Hannan on the increasing stupidity of rEd Miliband.
We look on in stunned amazement. But feel free to keep up the good work.
More info from that Independent article:
"But the pay rise will offset that increase with a crackdown on perks such as meals on expenses and an end to their generous final salary pensions.
The regulator, who took over control of MPs’ pay from Parliament in 2010, will argue that, overall, the new package will only cost the taxpayer a few hundred thousand pounds a year more.
But the prospect of a pay hike is certain to spark anger against a background of austerity and public sector wage freezes. The Ipsa chairman Sir Ian Kennedy admitted last week that the 1 per cent cap on public sector pay rises made the job of reviewing MPs’ remuneration more difficult.
But he insisted there was “never a good time” to deal with the issue and warned that avoiding an increase could create another expenses-style crisis as politicians sought to top up their salaries.
The deal to be unveiled this morning is expected to back a 12 per cent rise from the current level of £66,000, to take effect after the general election in 2015.
From then on wages will rise annually in line with average UK earnings, a mechanism that the regulator hopes will ensure the situation is resolved for the long term.
However, the £15 in expenses available for dinner when the House sits beyond 7.30pm will be scrapped – saving hundreds of thousands of pounds a year. There could also be tighter rules on using taxis and restrictions on claiming running costs for second homes, such as contents insurance.
“Golden goodbye” resettlement grants of up to £65,000 that used to be handed to departing MPs will not be brought back.
Instead, those defeated at an election could be entitled to redundancy similar to other public sector organisations.
The proposals will go out for consultation before Ipsa finalises the arrangements in the autumn.
Some MPs have already indicated they would personally decline the rises.
However, it would be almost impossible for the House of Commons to reject the measure overall because it would mean clawing back powers over pay from Ipsa."
My preference would be keep the Union but in a radically different form (effectively home rule for the 4 nations, and potentially consider spliting London out as well).
If the Scots want to go off on their own, it's be a shame, but go with our blessing.
If the 'No' campaign would work as a team then they might have a better chance of success. As time marches on, their disunity is only going to get worse.
If David Cameron really wants to win this referendum next September, he really ought to consult Alistair Darling before every and any HMG announcement which affects Scotland.
In fairness it has a bit of a go at Dave in ways that Tim would recognise as well but Ed is the main target. Why does Boris get away with this sort of nonsense and every other poly in the country look a complete prat?
Hard to believe but there is in fact something even more mad.
Threatening the public with another expenses scandal if this doesn't happen. They really don't get it do they?
They created IPSA (as toothless and inept as it is) and then run about like headless chickens when it does what they told it to do.
A new London tourist attraction and the future of Heathrow:
http://www.theengineer.co.uk/home/blog/flight-centres-sparks-london-air-capacity-debate/1016663.article
I actually quite like the idea of extending the Heathrow runways and splitting them into two. I wonder if it's been done anywhere else in the world in civil aviation for large aircraft? There are some difficulties that spring to mind, but I have little clue about aircraft operations.
One fro Sunil: a Radio 4 programme last night on Crossrail:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b036ksz2
So the IPSA chairman believes our MPs are such a thieving bunch, if we don't pay them more, they'll just steal more expenses? That is such good PR!
- no one suggests its anything significant
- Tim bleats about the "PB Tories" overreacting
In fairness to Tim, he was right about the 'curse of Cameron' dominating the media narrative in early July though. Bored of reading of it tbh.
Warning - dangerous bubble just 9 years away....