Thinking about the positives of Brexit the one that does stand out a million miles for me is the discomfit and upset it has caused the Eurocrat class. I have spent a lot of time in its entitled vicinity and have never warmed to it, to say the least. I do also think that the vote was a quintessentially English thing. We really don't like being told what to do - or to feel we are being told - by anyone, except royalty of course. I like the idea that this part of the English character is still as strong as it ever was. That's a very real and very important link back to our past. I also like the idea of a dark blue passport.
You know, SO, for a pinko, you're not such a bad old stick.
Of course it's only one risk globally and it's a zero-sum game as to where the money flows, so you can't look at the UK in isolation.
This point is very apposite. It explained a lot about how the dollar was, despite its weakness, relatively resilient compared to the deficits post 2008.
Thinking about the positives of Brexit the one that does stand out a million miles for me is the discomfit and upset it has caused the Eurocrat class. I have spent a lot of time in its entitled vicinity and have never warmed to it, to say the least. I do also think that the vote was a quintessentially English thing. We really don't like being told what to do - or to feel we are being told - by anyone, except royalty of course. I like the idea that this part of the English character is still as strong as it ever was. That's a very real and very important link back to our past. I also like the idea of a dark blue passport.
You know, SO, for a pinko, you're not such a bad old stick.
Ha, ha. I never feel more English than when I am in Brussels. And England is where I am from.
I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers
Well my mortgage and day to day expenses are still in £ sterling, and I bought my new camera pre-brexit
Presumably you only buy full UK sourced products since Brexit.
CPI has gone up by 0.1% and is still TOO LOW. When it reaches 2% how about we have this conversation?
Lol - just love the way you all pretend that the nose-diving £ is the greatest thing since sliced bread when you know it just ain't true.
It isn't great but it isn't a disaster either. It simply is what it is.
What it is may well be $1.28 by the end of the day.
Couldn't care less if it was $0.64 so long as inflation remains low and the economy thrives.
Of course at 0.64 inflation wouldn't be low, but that's the point. The number is moot it is what it ffrvts that matters.
Nor would the economy be thriving. All you are really saying is that in itself it is just a number. But it is of course also an important indicator. Your temperature is just a number but if it is very high you are probably very ill.
Yes it is just a number. If we start getting symptoms then I'd agree we may be ill, but we haven't got negative symptoms currently.
The exchange rate is more like the external temperature than your body temperature. Yes it's getting a bit colder than now than it was in June but if you put a jumper on there's no reason to assume you'll get sick. Plus now we can look forward to Christmas.
There is nevertheless no scenario where £=$0.64 and we are not in deep shit.
Long term there are plenty of scenarios where it could be that. The pound is today worth half.what it was in 1980. Once upon a time you could get five US dollars for one pound sterling.
However, when you are assessing the pros and cons of a decision, you can either attempt to model it, or you can take the Vote Leave approach of not bothering in the hope that no-one notices how severe the risks are.
This is nonsense. If your model is bollocks then all you are doing is giving false credibility to rubbish numbers. What is the difference between taking some estimated figures and putting them through an unproven model that only takes a fraction of factors into account including missing out some massive ones, or just pulling some numbers out of your ass. Both numbers are rubbish, but the first are given a veneer of respectability they dont deserve.
This is nonsense. If your model is bollocks then all you are doing is giving false credibility to rubbish numbers. What is the difference between taking some estimated figures and putting them through an unproven model that only takes a fraction of factors into account including missing out some massive ones, or just pulling some numbers out of your ass. Both numbers are rubbish, but the first are given a veneer of respectability they dont deserve.
All true.
I look forward to hearing your alternative and manifestly superior approach for assessing the economic consequences of a big decision.
Thinking about the positives of Brexit the one that does stand out a million miles for me is the discomfit and upset it has caused the Eurocrat class. I have spent a lot of time in its entitled vicinity and have never warmed to it, to say the least. I do also think that the vote was a quintessentially English thing. We really don't like being told what to do - or to feel we are being told - by anyone, except royalty of course. I like the idea that this part of the English character is still as strong as it ever was. That's a very real and very important link back to our past. I also like the idea of a dark blue passport.
Yes.
But surely the single, inarguable positive about Brexit is the enormous fillip it gives to British democracy.
No longer will governments be able to blame Brussels, fairly or unfairly. What we vote for is what we get, and what we get is our fault, or to our credit. Westminster will return to life: instead of powers slowly, mournfully draining away, powers will surge back. MPs will matter. Votes will matter. VOTERS will matter.
And the process by which laws are smuggled past us, and imposed on us, via obscure chambers in Brussels and Strasbourg will simply end. Finito. Democracy will become transparent once more. English and British democracy. If we don't like a law, we can vote for a party that will repeal it in London (or Edinburgh or Cardiff or Stormont), and then that law will be repealed. It won't be part of some mysterious "acquis", like some eurocratic Koran, true for all time, and unchangeable.
We won't have unelected commissioners. We won't have politicians failing at home then somehow lording over us at Brussels. We won't have five presidents. We won't have MEPs we can't name. We won't have Romanian judges changing British law. We won't have any of that SHIT.
These are all marvellously good things. It mystifies me why a smart guy like you can't see this.
It is rare that you see such rubbish posted in here.
Thinking about the positives of Brexit the one that does stand out a million miles for me is the discomfit and upset it has caused the Eurocrat class. I have spent a lot of time in its entitled vicinity and have never warmed to it, to say the least. I do also think that the vote was a quintessentially English thing. We really don't like being told what to do - or to feel we are being told - by anyone, except royalty of course. I like the idea that this part of the English character is still as strong as it ever was. That's a very real and very important link back to our past. I also like the idea of a dark blue passport.
Yes.
But surely the single, inarguable positive about Brexit is the enormous fillip it gives to British democracy.
No longer will governments be able to blame Brussels, fairly or unfairly. What we vote for is what we get, and what we get is our fault, or to our credit. Westminster will return to life: instead of powers slowly, mournfully draining away, powers will surge back. MPs will matter. Votes will matter. VOTERS will matter.
And the process by which laws are smuggled past us, and imposed on us, via obscure chambers in Brussels and Strasbourg will simply end. Finito. Democracy will become transparent once more. English and British democracy. If we don't like a law, we can vote for a party that will repeal it in London (or Edinburgh or Cardiff or Stormont), and then that law will be repealed. It won't be part of some mysterious "acquis", like some eurocratic Koran, true for all time, and unchangeable.
We won't have unelected commissioners. We won't have politicians failing at home then somehow lording over us at Brussels. We won't have five presidents. We won't have MEPs we can't name. We won't have Romanian judges changing British law. We won't have any of that SHIT.
These are all marvellously good things. It mystifies me why a smart guy like you can't see this.
Well this is precisely why so many voted Leave - you state my pre-vote thoughts very nicely. How come you didn't think the same? (A genuine q and not a dig). I'm curious. The good that you describe is worth WAY more than a few measly % points growth differential and in fact will generate growth more growth.
Thinking about the positives of Brexit the one that does stand out a million miles for me is the discomfit and upset it has caused the Eurocrat class. I have spent a lot of time in its entitled vicinity and have never warmed to it, to say the least. I do also think that the vote was a quintessentially English thing. We really don't like being told what to do - or to feel we are being told - by anyone, except royalty of course. I like the idea that this part of the English character is still as strong as it ever was. That's a very real and very important link back to our past. I also like the idea of a dark blue passport.
. So you think pissing off few euro bureaucrats and a blue passport is worth a big increase in the cost of living?
Another inflation anecdote, but from around three years ago.
ITV News, top story is rising inflation. It's the highest it's been for 2-3 years. The newsreader confidently claims prices are rising 'like never before'.
No, innumerate one. They're rising like they were a couple of years ago.
On currency: I have vague memories of the pound buying $2. Somehow we survived the drop to $1.35 or so.
I well remember a Spectator editorial warning of the dangers of the 10/- dollar. (That’s 50p for the younger element) That was in the 50’s IIRC. Our Headmaster arranged a cheap subscription to the Speccie for all those VIth formers interested.
Thinking about the positives of Brexit the one that does stand out a million miles for me is the discomfit and upset it has caused the Eurocrat class. I have spent a lot of time in its entitled vicinity and have never warmed to it, to say the least. I do also think that the vote was a quintessentially English thing. We really don't like being told what to do - or to feel we are being told - by anyone, except royalty of course. I like the idea that this part of the English character is still as strong as it ever was. That's a very real and very important link back to our past. I also like the idea of a dark blue passport.
Yes.
But surely the single, inarguable positive about Brexit is the enormous fillip it gives to British democracy.
No longer will governments be able to blame Brussels, fairly or unfairly. What we vote for is what we get, and what we get is our fault, or to our credit. Westminster will return to life: instead of powers slowly, mournfully draining away, powers will surge back. MPs will matter. Votes will matter. VOTERS will matter.
And the process by which laws are smuggled past us, and imposed on us, via obscure chambers in Brussels and Strasbourg will simply end. Finito. Democracy will become transparent once more. English and British democracy. If we don't like a law, we can vote for a party that will repeal it in London (or Edinburgh or Cardiff or Stormont), and then that law will be repealed. It won't be part of some mysterious "acquis", like some eurocratic Koran, true for all time, and unchangeable.
We won't have unelected commissioners. We won't have politicians failing at home then somehow lording over us at Brussels. We won't have five presidents. We won't have MEPs we can't name. We won't have Romanian judges changing British law. We won't have any of that SHIT.
These are all marvellously good things. It mystifies me why a smart guy like you can't see this.
I don't think this is the case for SO, who is a patriot, but I think for some Remainers what they really object to is governance at the whim of the votes of those they consider their social and cultural inferiors.
Thinking about the positives of Brexit the one that does stand out a million miles for me is the discomfit and upset it has caused the Eurocrat class. I have spent a lot of time in its entitled vicinity and have never warmed to it, to say the least. I do also think that the vote was a quintessentially English thing. We really don't like being told what to do - or to feel we are being told - by anyone, except royalty of course. I like the idea that this part of the English character is still as strong as it ever was. That's a very real and very important link back to our past. I also like the idea of a dark blue passport.
Yes.
But surely the single, inarguable positive about Brexit is the enormous fillip it gives to British democracy.
No longer will governments be able to blame Brussels, fairly or unfairly. What we vote for is what we get, and what we get is our fault, or to our credit. Westminster will return to life: instead of powers slowly, mournfully draining away, powers will surge back. MPs will matter. Votes will matter. VOTERS will matter.
And the process by which laws are smuggled past us, and imposed on us, via obscure chambers in Brussels and Strasbourg will simply end. Finito. Democracy will become transparent once more. English and British democracy. If we don't like a law, we can vote for a party that will repeal it in London (or Edinburgh or Cardiff or Stormont), and then that law will be repealed. It won't be part of some mysterious "acquis", like some eurocratic Koran, true for all time, and unchangeable.
We won't have unelected commissioners. We won't have politicians failing at home then somehow lording over us at Brussels. We won't have five presidents. We won't have MEPs we can't name. We won't have Romanian judges changing British law. We won't have any of that SHIT.
These are all marvellously good things. It mystifies me why a smart guy like you can't see this.
I get it, but it seems very remote right now so I can't get excited about it. The stuff I identified was immediate, even if less tangible (apart from the passport).
We won't have unelected commissioners. We won't have politicians failing at home then somehow lording over us at Brussels. We won't have five presidents. We won't have MEPs we can't name. We won't have Romanian judges changing British law. We won't have any of that SHIT.
We wont have a selection of politically appointed judges deciding that they don't like what the treaties said and that they will rule according to what they wish the treaties had said, or that EU law is more important than resolutions of the UN Security Council.
(And don't get me started on idiocy like the right to be forgotten)
Thinking about the positives of Brexit the one that does stand out a million miles for me is the discomfit and upset it has caused the Eurocrat class. I have spent a lot of time in its entitled vicinity and have never warmed to it, to say the least. I do also think that the vote was a quintessentially English thing. We really don't like being told what to do - or to feel we are being told - by anyone, except royalty of course. I like the idea that this part of the English character is still as strong as it ever was. That's a very real and very important link back to our past. I also like the idea of a dark blue passport.
. So you think pissing off few euro bureaucrats and a blue passport is worth a big increase in the cost of living?
What big increase in the cost of living?
You think a massive devaluation in the pound along with a globalised world is going to make things cheaper? Sweet jesus.
Another inflation anecdote, but from around three years ago.
ITV News, top story is rising inflation. It's the highest it's been for 2-3 years. The newsreader confidently claims prices are rising 'like never before'.
No, innumerate one. They're rising like they were a couple of years ago.
On currency: I have vague memories of the pound buying $2. Somehow we survived the drop to $1.35 or so.
Thinking about the positives of Brexit the one that does stand out a million miles for me is the discomfit and upset it has caused the Eurocrat class. I have spent a lot of time in its entitled vicinity and have never warmed to it, to say the least. I do also think that the vote was a quintessentially English thing. We really don't like being told what to do - or to feel we are being told - by anyone, except royalty of course. I like the idea that this part of the English character is still as strong as it ever was. That's a very real and very important link back to our past. I also like the idea of a dark blue passport.
. So you think pissing off few euro bureaucrats and a blue passport is worth a big increase in the cost of living?
What big increase in the cost of living?
You think a massive devaluation in the pound along with a globalised world is going to make things cheaper? Sweet jesus.
Inflation is below target. It is too low. Do you accept that or not?
Thinking about the positives of Brexit the one that does stand out a million miles for me is the discomfit and upset it has caused the Eurocrat class. I have spent a lot of time in its entitled vicinity and have never warmed to it, to say the least. I do also think that the vote was a quintessentially English thing. We really don't like being told what to do - or to feel we are being told - by anyone, except royalty of course. I like the idea that this part of the English character is still as strong as it ever was. That's a very real and very important link back to our past. I also like the idea of a dark blue passport.
. So you think pissing off few euro bureaucrats and a blue passport is worth a big increase in the cost of living?
What big increase in the cost of living?
You think a massive devaluation in the pound along with a globalised world is going to make things cheaper? Sweet jesus.
Sweet Jesus indeed.
What increase in the cost of living?
Where is it?
Fuck all has happened and you Mary-Anns are pissing your drawers. Still.
I rather suspect that those who.pupport not to be worried about the exchange rate disaster are rich people. For some of us the effects will be real and probably lasting. Meanwhile we are expected to clutch our new dark blue passports and sing #Rule Brittania#
The curious thing about today's drop in sterling is that it was caused by something which everyone already knew. Markets do behave in strange ways sometimes.
Not really. Markets might have been pricing in a small chance that May wanted it punted into the long grass, with a very soft technical exit, if at all, because she didn't really want it to happen.
Now we have a looming date for article 50, plus she's signalled a fairly firm Brexit: quitting customs union and single market.
I rather suspect that those who.pupport not to be worried about the exchange rate disaster are rich people. For some of us the effects will be real and probably lasting. Meanwhile we are expected to clutch our new dark blue passports and sing #Rule Brittania#
Another inflation anecdote, but from around three years ago.
ITV News, top story is rising inflation. It's the highest it's been for 2-3 years. The newsreader confidently claims prices are rising 'like never before'.
No, innumerate one. They're rising like they were a couple of years ago.
On currency: I have vague memories of the pound buying $2. Somehow we survived the drop to $1.35 or so.
I think it bought $2.80 and $2.40 before and after Harold Wilson devalued it ... but not of course the £ in your pocket. It was $4 before my time.
I later discovered £1 would have bought 12 Swiss Francs when I was at primary school. Now it's probably about £1.40.
Scope surely for an economics lesson?: Countries A&B depend heavily on financial services. A does quite well despite few natural resources (coal, etc) except scenery. B becomes a relative basketcase (despite being an island of coal surrounded by seas full of fish ... and later oil and gas fields). B comes to depend on foreigners buying high-value property plus other capital inflows to offset its chronic current account deficit.
Thinking about the positives of Brexit the one that does stand out a million miles for me is the discomfit and upset it has caused the Eurocrat class. I have spent a lot of time in its entitled vicinity and have never warmed to it, to say the least. I do also think that the vote was a quintessentially English thing. We really don't like being told what to do - or to feel we are being told - by anyone, except royalty of course. I like the idea that this part of the English character is still as strong as it ever was. That's a very real and very important link back to our past. I also like the idea of a dark blue passport.
. So you think pissing off few euro bureaucrats and a blue passport is worth a big increase in the cost of living?
What big increase in the cost of living?
You think a massive devaluation in the pound along with a globalised world is going to make things cheaper? Sweet jesus.
Sweet Jesus indeed.
What increase in the cost of living?
Where is it?
Fuck all has happened and you Mary-Anns are pissing your drawers. Still.
That's right, because supply chains are instantaneous, and you are an innumerate moron.
Thinking about the positives of Brexit the one that does stand out a million miles for me is the discomfit and upset it has caused the Eurocrat class. I have spent a lot of time in its entitled vicinity and have never warmed to it, to say the least. I do also think that the vote was a quintessentially English thing. We really don't like being told what to do - or to feel we are being told - by anyone, except royalty of course. I like the idea that this part of the English character is still as strong as it ever was. That's a very real and very important link back to our past. I also like the idea of a dark blue passport.
Yes.
But surely the single, inarguable positive about Brexit is the enormous fillip it gives to British democracy.
No longer will governments be able to blame Brussels, fairly or unfairly. What we vote for is what we get, and what we get is our fault, or to our credit. Westminster will return to life: instead of powers slowly, mournfully draining away, powers will surge back. MPs will matter. Votes will matter. VOTERS will matter.
And the process by which laws are smuggled past us, and imposed on us, via obscure chambers in Brussels and Strasbourg will simply end. Finito. Democracy will become transparent once more. English and British democracy. If we don't like a law, we can vote for a party that will repeal it in London (or Edinburgh or Cardiff or Stormont), and then that law will be repealed. It won't be part of some mysterious "acquis", like some eurocratic Koran, true for all time, and unchangeable.
We won't have unelected commissioners. We won't have politicians failing at home then somehow lording over us at Brussels. We won't have five presidents. We won't have MEPs we can't name. We won't have Romanian judges changing British law. We won't have any of that SHIT.
These are all marvellously good things. It mystifies me why a smart guy like you can't see this.
It is rare that you see such rubbish posted in here.
It’s not rubbish. Well, it’s sort of, but it’s what a lot of normally sensible people believe and as as result voted Leave back in June. The fact that a nation of 70 or so million, even one that punches well above its weight like Britain, is going to be at an increasing disadvantage compared with nations or blocs with more resources, intellectual as well as material, passed them by.
It's also against a much smaller population rise, so the GDP per capita growth will be about the same over the measured period.
No it's not. They assumed the same immigration level in the different scenarios.
I'm not sure that I would be so dismissive of the compound-interest effects of a long period of slightly reduced growth on our national wealth as some seem to be, but that was the choice voters made.
The news reports at the time said he'd factored in more immigration in the Remain scenario.
I'd change your source of news. The Treasury forecast for both leave and remain forecast used the same ONS estimate of migration. Dropping the migration levels under a Leave vote would have increased the gap between the Leave and Remain GDP forecasts.
Thinking about the positives of Brexit the one that does stand out a million miles for me is the discomfit and upset it has caused the Eurocrat class. I have spent a lot of time in its entitled vicinity and have never warmed to it, to say the least. I do also think that the vote was a quintessentially English thing. We really don't like being told what to do - or to feel we are being told - by anyone, except royalty of course. I like the idea that this part of the English character is still as strong as it ever was. That's a very real and very important link back to our past. I also like the idea of a dark blue passport.
. So you think pissing off few euro bureaucrats and a blue passport is worth a big increase in the cost of living?
What big increase in the cost of living?
You think a massive devaluation in the pound along with a globalised world is going to make things cheaper? Sweet jesus.
Sweet Jesus indeed.
What increase in the cost of living?
Where is it?
Fuck all has happened and you Mary-Anns are pissing your drawers. Still.
That's right, because supply chains are instantaneous, and you are an innumerate moron.
NB: only one of the above is true
So how high do you think inflation will spike to? How far above the target it is currently below?
This is nonsense. If your model is bollocks then all you are doing is giving false credibility to rubbish numbers. What is the difference between taking some estimated figures and putting them through an unproven model that only takes a fraction of factors into account including missing out some massive ones, or just pulling some numbers out of your ass. Both numbers are rubbish, but the first are given a veneer of respectability they dont deserve.
All true.
I look forward to hearing your alternative and manifestly superior approach for assessing the economic consequences of a big decision.
The alternative was to state the truth: Brexit is too chaotic, dynamic, unique and enormous for it to be properly and coherently modelled. That is to say: we haven't a clue as to the numbers, really, we just know there are serious risks - and also opportunities. Over to you, voter.
I suggest honesty like this would have done better than Project Fear.
Some things simply should not be quantified because, as you state, the systems are too complex. The most useful thing we can do is to guess at the direction (positive or negative) the change will have on the system, and the ballpark of that impact (big, medium, small, none).
In the world of risk analysis in complex systems, semi-quantative approaches are, IMO, far more useful than complex quant models that try to capture and quantify every variable. As the person who used to be in charge of the UK's National Risk Register once said to me in relation to the US' risk assessment - 'their models are more precise than ours - more precisely wrong.'
I rather suspect that those who.pupport not to be worried about the exchange rate disaster are rich people. For some of us the effects will be real and probably lasting. Meanwhile we are expected to clutch our new dark blue passports and sing #Rule Brittania#
What exchange rate disaster?
Are you haven't been out of late. Never mind.. it's coming down the line v soon to a street near you.. it will be fun reading all the whinging that is going to take place..in a few months time.. you read it here first...
''The fact that a nation of 70 or so million, even one that punches well above its weight like Britain, is going to be at an increasing disadvantage compared with nations or blocs with more resources, intellectual as well as material, passed them by. ''
IF that's the case, goodness knows how EVEN SMALLER countries like Australia, Switzerland and Norway are going to cope.
Thinking about the positives of Brexit the one that does stand out a million miles for me is the discomfit and upset it has caused the Eurocrat class. I have spent a lot of time in its entitled vicinity and have never warmed to it, to say the least. I do also think that the vote was a quintessentially English thing. We really don't like being told what to do - or to feel we are being told - by anyone, except royalty of course. I like the idea that this part of the English character is still as strong as it ever was. That's a very real and very important link back to our past. I also like the idea of a dark blue passport.
. So you think pissing off few euro bureaucrats and a blue passport is worth a big increase in the cost of living?
What big increase in the cost of living?
You think a massive devaluation in the pound along with a globalised world is going to make things cheaper? Sweet jesus.
Sweet Jesus indeed.
What increase in the cost of living?
Where is it?
Fuck all has happened and you Mary-Anns are pissing your drawers. Still.
That's right, because supply chains are instantaneous, and you are an innumerate moron.
NB: only one of the above is true
Most new car supply chains (to take an example) are 8-12 weeks long. How long has it been since BrExit now ?
''The fact that a nation of 70 or so million, even one that punches well above its weight like Britain, is going to be at an increasing disadvantage compared with nations or blocs with more resources, intellectual as well as material, passed them by. ''
IF that's the case, goodness knows how EVEN SMALLER countries like Australia, Switzerland and Norway are going to cope.
Should we start sending aid?
Indeed. And the world is still inhabited by dinosaurs. Oh, wait ...
Does Wikileaks think this reflects badly on Hillary Clinton?
Is that their big story?
Probably will be in the ball park
I doubt there is anything major wikileaks can say, The US and Russia are currently in negotiations, so I suspect Russia has told wikileaks to calm down on there bullshit
I rather suspect that those who.pupport not to be worried about the exchange rate disaster are rich people. For some of us the effects will be real and probably lasting. Meanwhile we are expected to clutch our new dark blue passports and sing #Rule Brittania#
The government's own best guess is that by 2030 GDP will have risen by 31% if we leave the EU as opposed to 37% if we remain, and their leave scenario was quite a pessimistic one.
In the grand scheme of things our EU membership simply is not all that economically important. If we could do something to close our productivity gap it would have a far larger positive effect than EU membership.
The alternative was to state the truth: Brexit is too chaotic, dynamic, unique and enormous for it to be properly and coherently modelled. That is to say: we haven't a clue as to the numbers, really, we just know there are serious risks - and also opportunities. Over to you, voter.
I suggest honesty like this would have done better than Project Fear.
You might well be right on that in terms of the politics.
It's also against a much smaller population rise, so the GDP per capita growth will be about the same over the measured period.
No it's not. They assumed the same immigration level in the different scenarios.
I'm not sure that I would be so dismissive of the compound-interest effects of a long period of slightly reduced growth on our national wealth as some seem to be, but that was the choice voters made.
The news reports at the time said he'd factored in more immigration in the Remain scenario.
I'd change your source of news. The Treasury forecast for both leave and remain forecast used the same ONS estimate of migration. Dropping the migration levels under a Leave vote would have increased the gap between the Leave and Remain GDP forecasts.
''Are you haven't been out of late. Never mind.. it's coming down the line v soon to a street near you.. it will be fun reading all the whinging that is going to take place..in a few months time.. you read it here first... ''
You were saying the same and much worse before we voted.
You were completely wrong then, so why should we take any notice now?
Mr. Root: "I rather suspect that those who.pupport not to be worried about the exchange rate disaster are rich people."
Having to chew the inside of my mouth to stop myself laughing my head off.
Maybe most of those quite relaxed are rich (and good for them, if so), but the idea I'm not worried because I spend the money swimming through money like Scrooge McDuck is faintly hilarious.
I rather suspect that those who.pupport not to be worried about the exchange rate disaster are rich people. For some of us the effects will be real and probably lasting. Meanwhile we are expected to clutch our new dark blue passports and sing #Rule Brittania#
What exchange rate disaster?
Are you haven't been out of late. Never mind.. it's coming down the line v soon to a street near you.. it will be fun reading all the whinging that is going to take place..in a few months time.. you read it here first...
Read it here first ages ago ... Hunchman was referring to an upcoming disaster on a date that has been and.gone now but oddly enough the disaster never came.
I rather suspect that those who.pupport not to be worried about the exchange rate disaster are rich people. For some of us the effects will be real and probably lasting. Meanwhile we are expected to clutch our new dark blue passports and sing #Rule Brittania#
The government's own best guess is that by 2030 GDP will have risen by 31% if we leave the EU as opposed to 37% if we remain, and their leave scenario was quite a pessimistic one.
In the grand scheme of things our EU membership simply is not all that economically important. If we could do something to close our productivity gap it would have a far larger positive effect than EU membership.
No, its vital, critical even, I mean look what it has done to the price of SR's G&T. Quick, call the emergency services.
I rather suspect that those who.pupport not to be worried about the exchange rate disaster are rich people. For some of us the effects will be real and probably lasting. Meanwhile we are expected to clutch our new dark blue passports and sing #Rule Brittania#
The government's own best guess is that by 2030 GDP will have risen by 31% if we leave the EU as opposed to 37% if we remain, and their leave scenario was quite a pessimistic one.
In the grand scheme of things our EU membership simply is not all that economically important. If we could do something to close our productivity gap it would have a far larger positive effect than EU membership.</blockquote
The curious thing about today's drop in sterling is that it was caused by something which everyone already knew. Markets do behave in strange ways sometimes.
Not really. Markets might have been pricing in a small chance that May wanted it punted into the long grass, with a very soft technical exit, if at all, because she didn't really want it to happen.
Now we have a looming date for article 50, plus she's signalled a fairly firm Brexit: quitting customs union and single market.
If that's the case, we should expect the slide in sterling (and perhaps deterioration in other economic indcators) to continue over the next 12-24 months as the reality of Brexit hoves into view.
The curious thing about today's drop in sterling is that it was caused by something which everyone already knew. Markets do behave in strange ways sometimes.
Not really. Markets might have been pricing in a small chance that May wanted it punted into the long grass, with a very soft technical exit, if at all, because she didn't really want it to happen.
Now we have a looming date for article 50, plus she's signalled a fairly firm Brexit: quitting customs union and single market.
Yes. I was surprised (pleasantly) by how firmly she said:
- no to ECJ - UK full control over UK laws - UK control over UK immigration
with the implications those three have for customs union and single market membership. I was expecting (fearing) much more of a fudge.
The curious thing about today's drop in sterling is that it was caused by something which everyone already knew. Markets do behave in strange ways sometimes.
Not really. Markets might have been pricing in a small chance that May wanted it punted into the long grass, with a very soft technical exit, if at all, because she didn't really want it to happen.
Now we have a looming date for article 50, plus she's signalled a fairly firm Brexit: quitting customs union and single market.
If that's the case, we should expect the slide in sterling (and perhaps deterioration in other economic indcators) to continue over the next 12-24 months as the reality of Brexit hoves into view.
On the day that the PMI indicators are the best for a couple of years.
The curious thing about today's drop in sterling is that it was caused by something which everyone already knew. Markets do behave in strange ways sometimes.
Not really. Markets might have been pricing in a small chance that May wanted it punted into the long grass, with a very soft technical exit, if at all, because she didn't really want it to happen.
Now we have a looming date for article 50, plus she's signalled a fairly firm Brexit: quitting customs union and single market.
If that's the case, we should expect the slide in sterling (and perhaps deterioration in other economic indcators) to continue over the next 12-24 months as the reality of Brexit hoves into view.
The curious thing about today's drop in sterling is that it was caused by something which everyone already knew. Markets do behave in strange ways sometimes.
Not really. Markets might have been pricing in a small chance that May wanted it punted into the long grass, with a very soft technical exit, if at all, because she didn't really want it to happen.
Now we have a looming date for article 50, plus she's signalled a fairly firm Brexit: quitting customs union and single market.
If that's the case, we should expect the slide in sterling (and perhaps deterioration in other economic indcators) to continue over the next 12-24 months as the reality of Brexit hoves into view.
Other than sterling which indicators worsened?
Early days of course but so far: Growth has improved. Trade has improved. Confidence has improved. Employment has improved. Inflation has improved.
The curious thing about today's drop in sterling is that it was caused by something which everyone already knew. Markets do behave in strange ways sometimes.
Not really. Markets might have been pricing in a small chance that May wanted it punted into the long grass, with a very soft technical exit, if at all, because she didn't really want it to happen.
Now we have a looming date for article 50, plus she's signalled a fairly firm Brexit: quitting customs union and single market.
If that's the case, we should expect the slide in sterling (and perhaps deterioration in other economic indcators) to continue over the next 12-24 months as the reality of Brexit hoves into view.
I think markets will react to data as it becomes known. There will be multiple such data points. But with yesterday's news, I think Article 50 declaration should be pretty much fully factored in now, so responses are most likely IMO to centre around details of the way negotiations are going. So I would not really expect much more movement until negotiations start.
The point being we would be far better off spending out time fretting about productivity than EU membership.
The whole EU issue is a massive distraction from far more pressing problems. The one good thing about being OUT is that we might start paying attention to things that actually matter.
''If that's the case, we should expect the slide in sterling (and perhaps deterioration in other economic indcators) to continue over the next 12-24 months as the reality of Brexit hoves into view. ''
Many assumptions there though, the chief being the eurozone survives and thrives.
Many remainers simply can't or won't see the huge problems the region faces. Economic, political, demographic, you name it.
I rather suspect that those who.pupport not to be worried about the exchange rate disaster are rich people. For some of us the effects will be real and probably lasting. Meanwhile we are expected to clutch our new dark blue passports and sing #Rule Brittania#
What exchange rate disaster?
Are you haven't been out of late. Never mind.. it's coming down the line v soon to a street near you.. it will be fun reading all the whinging that is going to take place..in a few months time.. you read it here first...
Read it here first ages ago ... Hunchman was referring to an upcoming disaster on a date that has been and.gone now but oddly enough the disaster never came.
Different subject.. that was the 2008 credit crunch . This is our own self inflicted disaster...and Gordon Brown nowhere in. Sight....
Thinking about the positives of Brexit the one that does stand out a million miles for me is the discomfit and upset it has caused the Eurocrat class. I have spent a lot of time in its entitled vicinity and have never warmed to it, to say the least. I do also think that the vote was a quintessentially English thing. We really don't like being told what to do - or to feel we are being told - by anyone, except royalty of course. I like the idea that this part of the English character is still as strong as it ever was. That's a very real and very important link back to our past. I also like the idea of a dark blue passport.
Yes.
But surely the single, inarguable positive about Brexit is the enormous fillip it gives to British democracy.
These are all marvellously good things. It mystifies me why a smart guy like you can't see this.
It is rare that you see such rubbish posted in here.
It’s not rubbish. Well, it’s sort of, but it’s what a lot of normally sensible people believe and as as result voted Leave back in June. The fact that a nation of 70 or so million, even one that punches well above its weight like Britain, is going to be at an increasing disadvantage compared with nations or blocs with more resources, intellectual as well as material, passed them by.
Have you seen the list of world's richest nations? Per capita?
There is absolutely no indication that being "big" or "in a bloc" is of benefit (if anything being smaller and nimble probably helps). There are no EU countries in the top 10.
What does help is: being an advanced western nation (or having lots of oil). Big news. Also: avoid communism, and don't be African.
Rather messed that comment up with the last clause. However, I stand by the view that life for Gt. Britain, bereft of natural resources, apart from some shale gas, is going to find the world increasingly difficult. Even allowing for our record. Someone else commented that Australia, Norway and Switzerland are doing OK. The first two have the benefit of substantial natural resources and, in Norway’s case some canny investing of the proceeds thereof, but as I understand it the Swiss Government is getting somewhat nervous about the future.
''That's a very real and very important link back to our past. I also like the idea of a dark blue passport. ''
Would Henry VIII have won ye referendum on the break with Rome?
Consider ye 'monastery dissolution dividend'
I've never known how to feel about Henry VIII - on the one hand, I'm fully convinced he was right - indeed, vaguely heroic - to break with Rome; on the other, his reasons for doing so were very much motivated by what was best for Henry VIII and the House of Tudor, rather than what was best for England. There may or may not be paralells here with individuals from the present era...
I rather suspect that those who.pupport not to be worried about the exchange rate disaster are rich people. For some of us the effects will be real and probably lasting. Meanwhile we are expected to clutch our new dark blue passports and sing #Rule Brittania#
What exchange rate disaster?
Are you haven't been out of late. Never mind.. it's coming down the line v soon to a street near you.. it will be fun reading all the whinging that is going to take place..in a few months time.. you read it here first...
Read it here first ages ago ... Hunchman was referring to an upcoming disaster on a date that has been and.gone now but oddly enough the disaster never came.
Different subject.. that was the 2008 credit crunch . This is our own self inflicted disaster...and Gordon Brown nowhere in. Sight....
Again what disaster?
Since you've refused to say it so far how high do you think inflation will get? How far away from target?
So Durham have become the Leeds United of County Cricket. A sad day.
However, I do like the idea of a Northern Cricket League - will we play with 13-a-side?
A very sad day indeed. TBH I think Hampshire should consider themselves very lucky and Kent somewhat hard done by. However, maybe the idea of the Ageas Bowl normally staging second division cricket was too difficult for some at Lords to accept.
Thinking about the positives of Brexit the one that does stand out a million miles for me is the discomfit and upset it has caused the Eurocrat class. I have spent a lot of time in its entitled vicinity and have never warmed to it, to say the least. I do also think that the vote was a quintessentially English thing. We really don't like being told what to do - or to feel we are being told - by anyone, except royalty of course. I like the idea that this part of the English character is still as strong as it ever was. That's a very real and very important link back to our past. I also like the idea of a dark blue passport.
Yes.
But surely the single, inarguable positive about Brexit is the enormous fillip it gives to British democracy.
These are all marvellously good things. It mystifies me why a smart guy like you can't see this.
It is rare that you see such rubbish posted in here.
It’s not rubbish. Well, it’s sort of, but it’s what a lot of normally sensible people believe and as as result voted Leave back in June. The fact that a nation of 70 or so million, even one that punches well above its weight like Britain, is going to be at an increasing disadvantage compared with nations or blocs with more resources, intellectual as well as material, passed them by.
Have you seen the list of world's richest nations? Per capita?
There is absolutely no indication that being "big" or "in a bloc" is of benefit (if anything being smaller and nimble probably helps). There are no EU countries in the top 10.
What does help is: being an advanced western nation (or having lots of oil). Big news. Also: avoid communism, and don't be African.
Ah hem: there is only one EU country in the top 10.
Edit to add, the numbers for 2015 don't include the upward revision of Ireland's GDP. So it's actually two.
The curious thing about today's drop in sterling is that it was caused by something which everyone already knew. Markets do behave in strange ways sometimes.
Not really. Markets might have been pricing in a small chance that May wanted it punted into the long grass, with a very soft technical exit, if at all, because she didn't really want it to happen.
Now we have a looming date for article 50, plus she's signalled a fairly firm Brexit: quitting customs union and single market.
If that's the case, we should expect the slide in sterling (and perhaps deterioration in other economic indcators) to continue over the next 12-24 months as the reality of Brexit hoves into view.
This is exactly what I expect. Brexit is going to hurt, no denying it.
That said, so far I have been OVERLY pessimistic about Brexit, like most others. Including ALL Remainers.
It's also against a much smaller population rise, so the GDP per capita growth will be about the same over the measured period.
No it's not. They assumed the same immigration level in the different scenarios.
I'm not sure that I would be so dismissive of the compound-interest effects of a long period of slightly reduced growth on our national wealth as some seem to be, but that was the choice voters made.
The news reports at the time said he'd factored in more immigration in the Remain scenario.
I'd change your source of news. The Treasury forecast for both leave and remain forecast used the same ONS estimate of migration. Dropping the migration levels under a Leave vote would have increased the gap between the Leave and Remain GDP forecasts.
As your link says in the 2nd last paragraph the Treasury forecast (which is what the discussion is about) used the same ONS central migration forecast for both Remain and Leave scenarios.
I rather suspect that those who.pupport not to be worried about the exchange rate disaster are rich people. For some of us the effects will be real and probably lasting. Meanwhile we are expected to clutch our new dark blue passports and sing #Rule Brittania#
What exchange rate disaster?
Are you haven't been out of late. Never mind.. it's coming down the line v soon to a street near you.. it will be fun reading all the whinging that is going to take place..in a few months time.. you read it here first...
Read it here first ages ago ... Hunchman was referring to an upcoming disaster on a date that has been and.gone now but oddly enough the disaster never came.
Different subject.. that was the 2008 credit crunch . This is our own self inflicted disaster...and Gordon Brown nowhere in. Sight....
Again what disaster?
?
Higher G & T prices, and more expensive foreign holidays.
Faced with these twin horrors, we can only quote Homer to strengthen our courage:-
"Let me not then die ingloriously and without a struggle, but let me first do some great thing that shall be told among men hereafter"
I rather suspect that those who.pupport not to be worried about the exchange rate disaster are rich people. For some of us the effects will be real and probably lasting. Meanwhile we are expected to clutch our new dark blue passports and sing #Rule Brittania#
What exchange rate disaster?
Are you haven't been out of late. Never mind.. it's coming down the line v soon to a street near you.. it will be fun reading all the whinging that is going to take place..in a few months time.. you read it here first...
Read it here first ages ago ... Hunchman was referring to an upcoming disaster on a date that has been and.gone now but oddly enough the disaster never came.
Different subject.. that was the 2008 credit crunch . This is our own self inflicted disaster...and Gordon Brown nowhere in. Sight....
Again what disaster?
?
Higher G & T prices, and more expensive foreign holidays.
Faced with these twin horrors, we can only quote Homer to strengthen our courage:-
"Let me not then die ingloriously and without a struggle, but let me first do some great thing that shall be told among men hereafter"
Prices in Bangkok will be effectivelly 15% or so higher. Could affect tourism. Or something!
I rather suspect that those who.pupport not to be worried about the exchange rate disaster are rich people. For some of us the effects will be real and probably lasting. Meanwhile we are expected to clutch our new dark blue passports and sing #Rule Brittania#
What exchange rate disaster?
Are you haven't been out of late. Never mind.. it's coming down the line v soon to a street near you.. it will be fun reading all the whinging that is going to take place..in a few months time.. you read it here first...
Read it here first ages ago ... Hunchman was referring to an upcoming disaster on a date that has been and.gone now but oddly enough the disaster never came.
Different subject.. that was the 2008 credit crunch . This is our own self inflicted disaster...and Gordon Brown nowhere in. Sight....
Again what disaster?
?
Higher G & T prices, and more expensive foreign holidays.
Faced with these twin horrors, we can only quote Homer to strengthen our courage:-
"Let me not then die ingloriously and without a struggle, but let me first do some great thing that shall be told among men hereafter"
Prices in Bangkok will be effectivelly 15% or so higher. Could affect tourism. Or something!
One can always visit somewhere other than Bangkok.
I rather suspect that those who.pupport not to be worried about the exchange rate disaster are rich people. For some of us the effects will be real and probably lasting. Meanwhile we are expected to clutch our new dark blue passports and sing #Rule Brittania#
What exchange rate disaster?
Are you haven't been out of late. Never mind.. it's coming down the line v soon to a street near you.. it will be fun reading all the whinging that is going to take place..in a few months time.. you read it here first...
Read it here first ages ago ... Hunchman was referring to an upcoming disaster on a date that has been and.gone now but oddly enough the disaster never came.
Different subject.. that was the 2008 credit crunch . This is our own self inflicted disaster...and Gordon Brown nowhere in. Sight....
Again what disaster?
?
Higher G & T prices, and more expensive foreign holidays.
Faced with these twin horrors, we can only quote Homer to strengthen our courage:-
"Let me not then die ingloriously and without a struggle, but let me first do some great thing that shall be told among men hereafter"
Prices in Bangkok will be effectivelly 15% or so higher. Could affect tourism. Or something!
One can always visit somewhere other than Bangkok.
That's what they said in Russia after the recent slide in the rouble. Then it became a patriotic duty to holiday in Crimea.
I rather suspect that those who.pupport not to be worried about the exchange rate disaster are rich people. For some of us the effects will be real and probably lasting. Meanwhile we are expected to clutch our new dark blue passports and sing #Rule Brittania#
What exchange rate disaster?
Are you haven't been out of late. Never mind.. it's coming down the line v soon to a street near you.. it will be fun reading all the whinging that is going to take place..in a few months time.. you read it here first...
Read it here first ages ago ... Hunchman was referring to an upcoming disaster on a date that has been and.gone now but oddly enough the disaster never came.
Different subject.. that was the 2008 credit crunch . This is our own self inflicted disaster...and Gordon Brown nowhere in. Sight....
Again what disaster?
?
Higher G & T prices, and more expensive foreign holidays.
Faced with these twin horrors, we can only quote Homer to strengthen our courage:-
"Let me not then die ingloriously and without a struggle, but let me first do some great thing that shall be told among men hereafter"
Prices in Bangkok will be effectivelly 15% or so higher. Could affect tourism. Or something!
One can always visit somewhere other than Bangkok.
That's what they said in Russia after the recent slide in the rouble. Then it became a patriotic duty to holiday in Crimea.
On a totally unrelated note, what is the weather like in Calais this time of year?
Thinking about the positives of Brexit the one that does stand out a million miles for me is the discomfit and upset it has caused the Eurocrat class. I have spent a lot of time in its entitled vicinity and have never warmed to it, to say the least. I do also think that the vote was a quintessentially English thing. We really don't like being told what to do - or to feel we are being told - by anyone, except royalty of course. I like the idea that this part of the English character is still as strong as it ever was. That's a very real and very important link back to our past. I also like the idea of a dark blue passport.
Yes.
But surely the single, inarguable positive about Brexit is the enormous fillip it gives to British democracy.
These are all marvellously good things. It mystifies me why a smart guy like you can't see this.
It is rare that you see such rubbish posted in here.
It’s not rubbish. Well, it’s sort of, but it’s what a lot of normally sensible people believe and as as result voted Leave back in June. The fact that a nation of 70 or so million, even one that punches well above its weight like Britain, is going to be at an increasing disadvantage compared with nations or blocs with more resources, intellectual as well as material, passed them by.
Have you seen the list of world's richest nations? Per capita?
There is absolutely no indication that being "big" or "in a bloc" is of benefit (if anything being smaller and nimble probably helps). There are no EU countries in the top 10.
What does help is: being an advanced western nation (or having lots of oil). Big news. Also: avoid communism, and don't be African.
Ah hem: there is only one EU country in the top 10.
Edit to add, the numbers for 2015 don't include the upward revision of Ireland's GDP. So it's actually two.
Luxembourg is not a country. It is a kind of surreal joke
Thinking about the positives of Brexit the one that does stand out a million miles for me is the discomfit and upset it has caused the Eurocrat class. I have spent a lot of time in its entitled vicinity and have never warmed to it, to say the least. I do also think that the vote was a quintessentially English thing. We really don't like being told what to do - or to feel we are being told - by anyone, except royalty of course. I like the idea that this part of the English character is still as strong as it ever was. That's a very real and very important link back to our past. I also like the idea of a dark blue passport.
Yes.
But surely the single, inarguable positive about Brexit is the enormous fillip it gives to British democracy.
These are all marvellously good things. It mystifies me why a smart guy like you can't see this.
It is rare that you see such rubbish posted in here.
It’s not rubbish. Well, it’s sort of, but it’s what a lot of normally sensible people believe and as as result voted Leave back in June. The fact that a nation of 70 or so million, even one that punches well above its weight like Britain, is going to be at an increasing disadvantage compared with nations or blocs with more resources, intellectual as well as material, passed them by.
Have you seen the list of world's richest nations? Per capita?
There is absolutely no indication that being "big" or "in a bloc" is of benefit (if anything being smaller and nimble probably helps). There are no EU countries in the top 10.
What does help is: being an advanced western nation (or having lots of oil). Big news. Also: avoid communism, and don't be African.
Ah hem: there is only one EU country in the top 10.
Edit to add, the numbers for 2015 don't include the upward revision of Ireland's GDP. So it's actually two.
Luxembourg is not a country. It is a kind of surreal joke
On that basis you'd need to remove most of the top ten.
Thinking about the positives of Brexit the one that does stand out a million miles for me is the discomfit and upset it has caused the Eurocrat class. I have spent a lot of time in its entitled vicinity and have never warmed to it, to say the least. I do also think that the vote was a quintessentially English thing. We really don't like being told what to do - or to feel we are being told - by anyone, except royalty of course. I like the idea that this part of the English character is still as strong as it ever was. That's a very real and very important link back to our past. I also like the idea of a dark blue passport.
Yes.
But surely the single, inarguable positive about Brexit is the enormous fillip it gives to British democracy.
These are all marvellously good things. It mystifies me why a smart guy like you can't see this.
It is rare that you see such rubbish posted in here.
It’s not rubbish. Well, it’s sort of, but it’s what a lot of normally sensible people believe and as as result voted Leave back in June. The fact that a nation of 70 or so million, even one that punches well above its weight like Britain, is going to be at an increasing disadvantage compared with nations or blocs with more resources, intellectual as well as material, passed them by.
Have you seen the list of world's richest nations? Per capita?
There is absolutely no indication that being "big" or "in a bloc" is of benefit (if anything being smaller and nimble probably helps). There are no EU countries in the top 10.
What does help is: being an advanced western nation (or having lots of oil). Big news. Also: avoid communism, and don't be African.
Ah hem: there is only one EU country in the top 10.
Edit to add, the numbers for 2015 don't include the upward revision of Ireland's GDP. So it's actually two.
Luxembourg is not a country. It is a kind of surreal joke
On that basis you'd need to remove most of the top ten.
The funny thing is that four of the top ten are most definitely places I wouldn't want to live in.
I rather suspect that those who.pupport not to be worried about the exchange rate disaster are rich people. For some of us the effects will be real and probably lasting. Meanwhile we are expected to clutch our new dark blue passports and sing #Rule Brittania#
What exchange rate disaster?
Are you haven't been out of late. Never mind.. it's coming down the line v soon to a street near you.. it will be fun reading all the whinging that is going to take place..in a few months time.. you read it here first...
Read it here first ages ago ... Hunchman was referring to an upcoming disaster on a date that has been and.gone now but oddly enough the disaster never came.
Different subject.. that was the 2008 credit crunch . This is our own self inflicted disaster...and Gordon Brown nowhere in. Sight....
Again what disaster?
?
Higher G & T prices, and more expensive foreign holidays.
Faced with these twin horrors, we can only quote Homer to strengthen our courage:-
"Let me not then die ingloriously and without a struggle, but let me first do some great thing that shall be told among men hereafter"
Prices in Bangkok will be effectivelly 15% or so higher. Could affect tourism. Or something!
One can always visit somewhere other than Bangkok.
That's what they said in Russia after the recent slide in the rouble. Then it became a patriotic duty to holiday in Crimea.
To be fair most Russians don't travel abroad anyway, so now they don't even have to...
@rowenamason: Australian high commissioner says it will not be possible to strike a trade deal with UK unless it leaves customs union and single market
If you remove the tax avoidance schemes and the petro economies, you get places like the USA, Netherlands, Sweden near the top, quite a few of which are EU countries
What I don't understand about the Remainers is why they were so shy previously at expressing the love and magic that the EU brings and that rather than less EU we should have been pressing for EU_MAX ?
@rowenamason: Australian high commissioner says it will not be possible to strike a trade deal with UK unless it leaves customs union and single market
I rather suspect that those who.pupport not to be worried about the exchange rate disaster are rich people. For some of us the effects will be real and probably lasting. Meanwhile we are expected to clutch our new dark blue passports and sing #Rule Brittania#
What exchange rate disaster?
Are you haven't been out of late. Never mind.. it's coming down the line v soon to a street near you.. it will be fun reading all the whinging that is going to take place..in a few months time.. you read it here first...
Read it here first ages ago ... Hunchman was referring to an upcoming disaster on a date that has been and.gone now but oddly enough the disaster never came.
Different subject.. that was the 2008 credit crunch . This is our own self inflicted disaster...and Gordon Brown nowhere in. Sight....
Again what disaster?
?
Higher G & T prices, and more expensive foreign holidays.
Faced with these twin horrors, we can only quote Homer to strengthen our courage:-
"Let me not then die ingloriously and without a struggle, but let me first do some great thing that shall be told among men hereafter"
Prices in Bangkok will be effectivelly 15% or so higher. Could affect tourism. Or something!
One can always visit somewhere other than Bangkok.
That's what they said in Russia after the recent slide in the rouble. Then it became a patriotic duty to holiday in Crimea.
On a totally unrelated note, what is the weather like in Calais this time of year?
Anticipating the return of the booze cruise after Brexit?
Thinking about the positives of Brexit the one that does stand out a million miles for me is the discomfit of a dark blue passport.
Yes.
But surely the single, inarguable positive about Brexit is the enormous fillip it gives to British democracy.
These are all marvellously good things. It mystifies me why a smart guy like you can't see this.
It is rare that you see such rubbish posted in here.
It’s not rubbish. Well, it’s sort of, but it’s what a lot of normally sensible people believe and as as result voted Leave back in June. The fact that a nation of 70 or so million, even one that punches well above its weight like Britain, is going to be at an increasing disadvantage compared with nations or blocs with more resources, intellectual as well as material, passed them by.
Have you seen the list of world's richest nations? Per capita?
There is absolutely no indication that being "big" or "in a bloc" is of benefit (if anything being smaller and nimble probably helps). There are no EU countries in the top 10.
What does help is: being an advanced western nation (or having lots of oil). Big news. Also: avoid communism, and don't be African.
Ah hem: there is only one EU country in the top 10.
Edit to add, the numbers for 2015 don't include the upward revision of Ireland's GDP. So it's actually two.
Taiwan's performance is phenomenal. This was an island of peasants and rubble a few decades ago, and an army fleeing the communists
Now it's GDP per capita is about the same as Germany, Australia and Canada, and higher than France, the UK and Japan
Imagine if China repeats Taiwan's performance (unlikely, but clearly possible). It would not just be the biggest economy on the planet, it would be about three or four times larger than the USA
A world utterly transformed. The West dwarfed.
China will force Taiwan into PRC at some point in the next 30 years, either politically or militarily.
''That's a very real and very important link back to our past. I also like the idea of a dark blue passport. ''
Would Henry VIII have won ye referendum on the break with Rome?
Consider ye 'monastery dissolution dividend'
I've never known how to feel about Henry VIII - on the one hand, I'm fully convinced he was right - indeed, vaguely heroic - to break with Rome; on the other, his reasons for doing so were very much motivated by what was best for Henry VIII and the House of Tudor, rather than what was best for England. There may or may not be paralells here with individuals from the present era...
Confiscate a quarter of the land and give it to your cronies plunging the country into chaos and bloodletting?
Thinking about the positives of Brexit the one that does stand out a million miles for me is the discomfit of a dark blue passport.
Yes.
But surely the single, inarguable positive about Brexit is the enormous fillip it gives to British democracy.
These are all marvellously good things. It mystifies me why a smart guy like you can't see this.
It is rare that you see such rubbish posted in here.
It’s not rubbish. Well, it’s sort of, but it’s what a lot of normally sensible people believe and as as result voted Leave back in June. The fact that a nation of 70 or so million, even one that punches well above its weight like Britain, is going to be at an increasing disadvantage compared with nations or blocs with more resources, intellectual as well as material, passed them by.
Have you seen the list of world's richest nations? Per capita?
There is absolutely no indication that being "big" or "in a bloc" is of benefit (if anything being smaller and nimble probably helps). There are no EU countries in the top 10.
What does help is: being an advanced western nation (or having lots of oil). Big news. Also: avoid communism, and don't be African.
Ah hem: there is only one EU country in the top 10.
Edit to add, the numbers for 2015 don't include the upward revision of Ireland's GDP. So it's actually two.
Taiwan's performance is phenomenal. This was an island of peasants and rubble a few decades ago, and an army fleeing the communists
Now it's GDP per capita is about the same as Germany, Australia and Canada, and higher than France, the UK and Japan
Imagine if China repeats Taiwan's performance (unlikely, but clearly possible). It would not just be the biggest economy on the planet, it would be about three or four times larger than the USA
A world utterly transformed. The West dwarfed.
Indeed - imagine what would have happened had China followed the path of Taiwan over the last 60 years? Taiwan is a wonderful example (see also South Korea vs North Korea, West Germany vs East Germany, of course, and arguably Puerto Rico vs Cuba) that whatever problems exist with capitalism, it is manifestly better than the alternative. Of course, what those four examples also have in common is the explicit military backing of the Americans.
If you remove the tax avoidance schemes and the petro economies, you get places like the USA, Netherlands, Sweden near the top, quite a few of which are EU countries
And quite a few of which aren't. The argument was that "being big or in a bloc" is the best way to be rich, and the UK has just excused itself from that.
Clearly this is bollocks. Being western, oil-rich or a small tax avoiding country is the best way to be rich, closely followed (and soon overtaken?) by being East Asian.
Thinking about the positives of Brexit the one that does stand out a million miles for me is the discomfit of a dark blue passport.
Yes.
But surely the single, inarguable positive about Brexit is the enormous fillip it gives to British democracy.
These are all marvellously good things. It mystifies me why a smart guy like you can't see this.
It is rare that you see such rubbish posted in here.
It’s not rubbish. Well, it’s sort of, but it’s what a lot of normally sensible people believe and as as result voted Leave back in June. The fact that a nation of 70 or so million, even one that punches well above its weight like Britain, is going to be at an increasing disadvantage compared with nations or blocs with more resources, intellectual as well as material, passed them by.
Have you seen the list of world's richest nations? Per capita?
There is absolutely no indication that being "big" or "in a bloc" is of benefit (if anything being smaller and nimble probably helps). There are no EU countries in the top 10.
What does help is: being an advanced western nation (or having lots of oil). Big news. Also: avoid communism, and don't be African.
Ah hem: there is only one EU country in the top 10.
Edit to add, the numbers for 2015 don't include the upward revision of Ireland's GDP. So it's actually two.
Taiwan's performance is phenomenal. This was an island of peasants and rubble a few decades ago, and an army fleeing the communists
Now it's GDP per capita is about the same as Germany, Australia and Canada, and higher than France, the UK and Japan
Imagine if China repeats Taiwan's performance (unlikely, but clearly possible). It would not just be the biggest economy on the planet, it would be about three or four times larger than the USA
A world utterly transformed. The West dwarfed.
Taiwan is great - the perfect mix of HK and the mainland. The people are far gentler and less stressed too, which is quite a feat given what is waiting and watching across the sea. What Taiwan has over China is a largely independent judiciary and financial system, and a lot more democracy. If (when) China gets these, there is no doubt it will dominate the world.
I rather suspect that those who.pupport not to be worried about the exchange rate disaster are rich people. For some of us the effects will be real and probably lasting. Meanwhile we are expected to clutch our new dark blue passports and sing #Rule Brittania#
What exchange rate disaster?
Are you haven't been out of late. Never mind.. it's coming down the line v soon to a street near you.. it will be fun reading all the whinging that is going to take place..in a few months time.. you read it here first...
Read it here first ages ago ... Hunchman was referring to an upcoming disaster on a date that has been and.gone now but oddly enough the disaster never came.
Different subject.. that was the 2008 credit crunch . This is our own self inflicted disaster...and Gordon Brown nowhere in. Sight....
Again what disaster?
?
Higher G & T prices, and more expensive foreign holidays.
Faced with these twin horrors, we can only quote Homer to strengthen our courage:-
"Let me not then die ingloriously and without a struggle, but let me first do some great thing that shall be told among men hereafter"
Prices in Bangkok will be effectivelly 15% or so higher. Could affect tourism. Or something!
One can always visit somewhere other than Bangkok.
I was concerned for esteemed colleague who seems to visit there quite often.
''That's a very real and very important link back to our past. I also like the idea of a dark blue passport. ''
Would Henry VIII have won ye referendum on the break with Rome?
Consider ye 'monastery dissolution dividend'
I've never known how to feel about Henry VIII - on the one hand, I'm fully convinced he was right - indeed, vaguely heroic - to break with Rome; on the other, his reasons for doing so were very much motivated by what was best for Henry VIII and the House of Tudor, rather than what was best for England. There may or may not be paralells here with individuals from the present era...
Confiscate a quarter of the land and give it to your cronies plunging the country into chaos and bloodletting?
Modern parallel - step forward Sir Robert Mugabe.
Ha ha - I was actually thinking as I posted this that you (our most conspicuously Roman Catholic poster) might have a different view on this!
Taiwan's performance is phenomenal. This was an island of peasants and rubble a few decades ago, and an army fleeing the communists
Now it's GDP per capita is about the same as Germany, Australia and Canada, and higher than France, the UK and Japan
Imagine if China repeats Taiwan's performance (unlikely, but clearly possible). It would not just be the biggest economy on the planet, it would be about three or four times larger than the USA
A world utterly transformed. The West dwarfed.
China will force Taiwan into PRC at some point in the next 30 years, either politically or militarily.
I think they will slowly and peacefully merge, or associate, as China's GDP per capita reaches par with Taiwan
It's not in China's interest to fuck up the economy of a major trading partner like Taiwan, with some brutal coercion. Unless China is taken over by nutters again (possible)
As far as China is concerned Taiwan is part of the indivisible whole. It doesn't matter what Taiwanese think, when it comes down to it. China would prefer enthusiasm to force but it doesn't change the premise. For the Taiwanese legitimacy comes from democracy. Taiwan will only be part of China if it chooses to be so. The contradiction between those positions is total. And it's real, not abstract.
Thinking about the positives of Brexit the one that does stand out a million miles for me is the discomfit of a dark blue passport.
Yes.
But surely the single, inarguable positive about Brexit is the enormous fillip it gives to British democracy.
These are all marvellously good things. It mystifies me why a smart guy like you can't see this.
.
It’s not rubbish. Well, it’s sort of, but it’s what a lot of normally sensible people believe and as as result voted Leave back in June. The fact that a nation of 70 or so million, even one that punches well above its weight like Britain, is going to be at an increasing disadvantage compared with nations or blocs with more resources, intellectual as well as material, passed them by.
Have you seen the list of world's richest nations? Per capita?
There is absolutely no indication that being "big" or "in a bloc" is of benefit (if anything being smaller and nimble probably helps). There are no EU countries in the top 10.
What does help is: being an advanced western nation (or having lots of oil). Big news. Also: avoid communism, and don't be African.
Edit to add, the numbers for 2015 don't include the upward revision of Ireland's GDP. So it's actually two.
Taiwan's performance is phenomenal. This was an island of peasants and rubble a few decades ago, and an army fleeing the communists
Now it's GDP per capita is about the same as Germany, Australia and Canada, and higher than France, the UK and Japan
Imagine if China repeats Taiwan's performance (unlikely, but clearly possible). It would not just be the biggest economy on the planet, it would be about three or four times larger than the USA
A world utterly transformed. The West dwarfed.
Taiwan is great - the perfect mix of HK and the mainland. The people are far gentler and less stressed too, which is quite a feat given what is waiting and watching across the sea. What Taiwan has over China is a largely independent judiciary and financial system, and a lot more democracy. If (when) China gets these, there is no doubt it will dominate the world.
Travel-writing friends tell me that Taiwan is surprisingly beautiful, too. In parts. Also good food. I've never been.
I likewise hear great things about China's other island: Hainan.
Comments
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-03/french-unemployment-soars-will-hollande-keep-his-word-or-will-he-humiliate-himself
French labour law is quite astonishingly shite.
Would Henry VIII have won ye referendum on the break with Rome?
Consider ye 'monastery dissolution dividend'
https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/782906224937410562
I look forward to hearing your alternative and manifestly superior approach for assessing the economic consequences of a big decision.
That was in the 50’s IIRC. Our Headmaster arranged a cheap subscription to the Speccie for all those VIth formers interested.
(And don't get me started on idiocy like the right to be forgotten)
What increase in the cost of living?
Where is it?
Fuck all has happened and you Mary-Anns are pissing your drawers. Still.
For some of us the effects will be real and probably lasting. Meanwhile we are expected to clutch our new dark blue passports and sing #Rule Brittania#
Now we have a looming date for article 50, plus she's signalled a fairly firm Brexit: quitting customs union and single market.
They had Trump + 5 in their last poll
I later discovered £1 would have bought 12 Swiss Francs when I was at primary school. Now it's probably about £1.40.
Scope surely for an economics lesson?: Countries A&B depend heavily on financial services. A does quite well despite few natural resources (coal, etc) except scenery. B becomes a relative basketcase (despite being an island of coal surrounded by seas full of fish ... and later oil and gas fields). B comes to depend on foreigners buying high-value property plus other capital inflows to offset its chronic current account deficit.
NB: only one of the above is true
Sri Lankan rupee soars against GBP!!
The pound is becoming more and more worthless - oh dear!
http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/treasurys-brexit-report-what-does-it-say-and-how-credible-is-it/
In the world of risk analysis in complex systems, semi-quantative approaches are, IMO, far more useful than complex quant models that try to capture and quantify every variable. As the person who used to be in charge of the UK's National Risk Register once said to me in relation to the US' risk assessment - 'their models are more precise than ours - more precisely wrong.'
What has happened since June?
You should open your eyes and your mind before you open your mouth.
IF that's the case, goodness knows how EVEN SMALLER countries like Australia, Switzerland and Norway are going to cope.
Should we start sending aid?
I doubt there is anything major wikileaks can say, The US and Russia are currently in negotiations, so I suspect Russia has told wikileaks to calm down on there bullshit
In the grand scheme of things our EU membership simply is not all that economically important. If we could do something to close our productivity gap it would have a far larger positive effect than EU membership.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36082472
You were saying the same and much worse before we voted.
You were completely wrong then, so why should we take any notice now?
Having to chew the inside of my mouth to stop myself laughing my head off.
Maybe most of those quite relaxed are rich (and good for them, if so), but the idea I'm not worried because I spend the money swimming through money like Scrooge McDuck is faintly hilarious.
- no to ECJ
- UK full control over UK laws
- UK control over UK immigration
with the implications those three have for customs union and single market membership. I was expecting (fearing) much more of a fudge.
Early days of course but so far:
Growth has improved.
Trade has improved.
Confidence has improved.
Employment has improved.
Inflation has improved.
However, I do like the idea of a Northern Cricket League - will we play with 13-a-side?
But events ...
The point being we would be far better off spending out time fretting about productivity than EU membership.
The whole EU issue is a massive distraction from far more pressing problems. The one good thing about being OUT is that we might start paying attention to things that actually matter.
Many assumptions there though, the chief being the eurozone survives and thrives.
Many remainers simply can't or won't see the huge problems the region faces. Economic, political, demographic, you name it.
However, I stand by the view that life for Gt. Britain, bereft of natural resources, apart from some shale gas, is going to find the world increasingly difficult. Even allowing for our record.
Someone else commented that Australia, Norway and Switzerland are doing OK. The first two have the benefit of substantial natural resources and, in Norway’s case some canny investing of the proceeds thereof, but as I understand it the Swiss Government is getting somewhat nervous about the future.
http://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/14679/the-chancellor-sets-out-his-stall/
A Chancellor doing his own job?
It will never catch on!
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/agentssummary/2016/q3.pdf
Since you've refused to say it so far how high do you think inflation will get? How far away from target?
However, maybe the idea of the Ageas Bowl normally staging second division cricket was too difficult for some at Lords to accept.
Edit to add, the numbers for 2015 don't include the upward revision of Ireland's GDP. So it's actually two.
Faced with these twin horrors, we can only quote Homer to strengthen our courage:-
"Let me not then die ingloriously and without a struggle, but let me first do some great thing that shall be told among men hereafter"
Edit: Joking aside, it's an interesting part of the country
Modern parallel - step forward Sir Robert Mugabe.
Of course, what those four examples also have in common is the explicit military backing of the Americans.
https://twitter.com/stuartjritchie/status/782932635664412672