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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay needs a sizeable CON majority in Witney to deal with the “unelected PM” taunts

It is not TMay’s fault that she ended up as CON leader and PM without having to go through a membership ballot. Once Andrea Leadsom pulled out on that memorable Monday morning there was no further obstacle and she was assured of the leadership and the keys of Number 10.

Read the full story here

Pong

FPT;

Pong said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Also, note how much better off (in net income terms after housing costs) people born in the 1970s and 1980s are compared with those born earlier, at equivalent points in their lives.

Interesting indeed.

Most likely explanation is it's a consequence of women entering the workforce in much larger numbers, earning higher (more equal) salaries.

The graph is showing household income - a real income (after housing costs) comparison for working age males would be quite different, I suspect.

theakes

Coral Cons 1/20, Lib dems 8-1

Pulpstar

Pong said:

FPT;

Pong said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Also, note how much better off (in net income terms after housing costs) people born in the 1970s and 1980s are compared with those born earlier, at equivalent points in their lives.

Interesting indeed.

Most likely explanation is it's a consequence of women entering the workforce in much larger numbers, earning higher (more equal) salaries.

The graph is showing household income - a real income (after housing costs) comparison for working age males would be quite different, I suspect.

Employer (And employee) contributions on pensions are a frog that the Gov't should look to boil to perhaps 10/10 by 2030.

MaxPB

SeanT said:

FPT for FF33


"It's about markets. If your market is Europe, which is almost synonymous with the EU, you are in the market you serve if you are based in the EU and not if you are based in the Brexited UK. If you don't need to be in the market to serve it, you can be anywhere - China, USA, Mexico. The UK loses out either way."

The problem with all these negative analyses of post-Brexit Britain, and why they are already proving to be overly pessimistic, is that they presume we are just a passive observer. A nation to which things are done. The submissive in a BDSM relationship with Europe, the world, and reality.

They ignore the possibility - indeed likelihood - that post-Brexit Britain will DO STUFF to make the nation more attractive to investment, better for banks, extra-welcoming to smarter migrants, and so forth, to counteract the negatives of Brexit.

The gloomier Remainers also refuse the possibility that Britain will simply benefit as a country from governing itself: we won't have anyone else to blame any more.

Brexit will being major difficulties. But also major opportunities

Clearly you don't understand the programme, Brexit means all of our manufacturers and banks will decamp to Europe, @SouthamObserver will open an office in Spain to answer phone calls (in Spanglish, of course) and the UK will become a wasteland of joblessness and Sterling will fall to a value where it is measured in wheelbarrows per slice of bread.

TheScreamingEagles

Indeed, usurper May needs to be reminded she's never been elected as PM, and she's using Cameron's majority, so stick to the manifesto, like things on grammar schools.

TGOHF

Surely May will get a post Gideon being turfed out boost at the ballot box ?

BannedInParis

You have to recall the Thrippleton-on-Medway council by-election of 18hundred and frozen stuff which is extra-ordinarily relevant to current events.

SouthamObserver

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

FPT for FF33


"It's about markets. If your market is Europe, which is almost synonymous with the EU, you are in the market you serve if you are based in the EU and not if you are based in the Brexited UK. If you don't need to be in the market to serve it, you can be anywhere - China, USA, Mexico. The UK loses out either way."

The problem with all these negative analyses of post-Brexit Britain, and why they are already proving to be overly pessimistic, is that they presume we are just a passive observer. A nation to which things are done. The submissive in a BDSM relationship with Europe, the world, and reality.

They ignore the possibility - indeed likelihood - that post-Brexit Britain will DO STUFF to make the nation more attractive to investment, better for banks, extra-welcoming to smarter migrants, and so forth, to counteract the negatives of Brexit.

The gloomier Remainers also refuse the possibility that Britain will simply benefit as a country from governing itself: we won't have anyone else to blame any more.

Brexit will being major difficulties. But also major opportunities

Clearly you don't understand the programme, Brexit means all of our manufacturers and banks will decamp to Europe, @SouthamObserver will open an office in Spain to answer phone calls (in Spanglish, of course) and the UK will become a wasteland of joblessness and Sterling will fall to a value where it is measured in wheelbarrows per slice of bread.

That's the spirit Max! What will actually happen is that a lot of companies that do a lot of work in the Single Market will seek to ensure that they stay in the Single Market. It's not brain surgery and it was pretty well signalled. Sorry you don't like it - but there you go.

logical_song

TGOHF said:

Surely May will get a post Gideon being turfed out boost at the ballot box ?

Yes, we should expect the Tory vote to be much improved on Cameron's 60%.

Philip_Thompson

Pulpstar said:

Pong said:

FPT;

Pong said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Also, note how much better off (in net income terms after housing costs) people born in the 1970s and 1980s are compared with those born earlier, at equivalent points in their lives.

Interesting indeed.

Most likely explanation is it's a consequence of women entering the workforce in much larger numbers, earning higher (more equal) salaries.

The graph is showing household income - a real income (after housing costs) comparison for working age males would be quite different, I suspect.

Employer (And employee) contributions on pensions are a frog that the Gov't should look to boil to perhaps 10/10 by 2030.

Honest question but why should an employer bear responsibility for an employees pension? Especially given the death of lifelong employment and employees can work for dozens of employers over their career? Would it not make more sense for an employer to simply pay the employee well and then let the employee choose their pension scheme? That way an employee can switch from employer to employer and all that matters is their wages for a job done in the employee/employer relationship.

SouthamObserver

I am not sure that May's legitimacy is that much of an issue outside of a small circle of political obsessives. We have been through this a few times before, so it's not as if voters aren't used to it.

tpfkar

Equally, the other parties have little to lose. It's Tory heartland territory, little advance notice, miles across geographically, and the Conservatives start with 60+%. Plenty of excuses for a weak performance by any of the opposition, although plenty of upside for an "unexpected" surge - certainly seems to be Lib Dem plan.

The Tories have it all to lose here.

TGOHF

logical_song said:

TGOHF said:

Surely May will get a post Gideon being turfed out boost at the ballot box ?

Yes, we should expect the Tory vote to be much improved on Cameron's 60%.

I would imagine that if the LD vote % rises on a vastly reduced turn out it can only mean Farron is heading for the Rose garden in 2020.

PlatoSaid

BannedInParis said:

You have to recall the Thrippleton-on-Medway council by-election of 18hundred and frozen stuff which is extra-ordinarily relevant to current events.

MaxPB

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

FPT for FF33


"It's about markets. If your market is Europe, which is almost synonymous with the EU, you are in the market you serve if you are based in the EU and not if you are based in the Brexited UK. If you don't need to be in the market to serve it, you can be anywhere - China, USA, Mexico. The UK loses out either way."

The problem with all these negative analyses of post-Brexit Britain, and why they are already proving to be overly pessimistic, is that they presume we are just a passive observer. A nation to which things are done. The submissive in a BDSM relationship with Europe, the world, and reality.

They ignore the possibility - indeed likelihood - that post-Brexit Britain will DO STUFF to make the nation more attractive to investment, better for banks, extra-welcoming to smarter migrants, and so forth, to counteract the negatives of Brexit.

The gloomier Remainers also refuse the possibility that Britain will simply benefit as a country from governing itself: we won't have anyone else to blame any more.

Brexit will being major difficulties. But also major opportunities

Clearly you don't understand the programme, Brexit means all of our manufacturers and banks will decamp to Europe, @SouthamObserver will open an office in Spain to answer phone calls (in Spanglish, of course) and the UK will become a wasteland of joblessness and Sterling will fall to a value where it is measured in wheelbarrows per slice of bread.

That's the spirit Max! What will actually happen is that a lot of companies that do a lot of work in the Single Market will seek to ensure that they stay in the Single Market. It's not brain surgery and it was pretty well signalled. Sorry you don't like it - but there you go.

I'm sure they will, but the reality is that a lot of the work just won't get done at all, which is lose/lose rather than your presentation of lose/win for the UK/EU. The reality is that in a trade war neither side wins, @rcs1000 had a handy chart about falling trade in the great depression.

justin124

I am not persuaded that Witney is so important for May. Callaghan succeeded Wilson in April 1976 , and a few months later Labour suffered disastrous by election results at Workington and Walsall North. Similarly the Tories lost Ribble Valley not long after Major became PM.Neither Callaghan nor Major were particularly undermined by those setbacks.

El_Capitano

TGOHF said:

Surely May will get a post Gideon being turfed out boost at the ballot box ?

Not in Witney. People here genuinely liked DC, even those of different parties.

CarlottaVance

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

FPT for FF33


"It's about markets. If your market is Europe, which is almost synonymous with the EU, you are in the market you serve if you are based in the EU and not if you are based in the Brexited UK. If you don't need to be in the market to serve it, you can be anywhere - China, USA, Mexico. The UK loses out either way."

The problem with all these negative analyses of post-Brexit Britain, and why they are already proving to be overly pessimistic, is that they presume we are just a passive observer. A nation to which things are done. The submissive in a BDSM relationship with Europe, the world, and reality.

They ignore the possibility - indeed likelihood - that post-Brexit Britain will DO STUFF to make the nation more attractive to investment, better for banks, extra-welcoming to smarter migrants, and so forth, to counteract the negatives of Brexit.

The gloomier Remainers also refuse the possibility that Britain will simply benefit as a country from governing itself: we won't have anyone else to blame any more.

Brexit will being major difficulties. But also major opportunities

Clearly you don't understand the programme, Brexit means all of our manufacturers and banks will decamp to Europe, @SouthamObserver will open an office in Spain to answer phone calls (in Spanglish, of course) and the UK will become a wasteland of joblessness and Sterling will fall to a value where it is measured in wheelbarrows per slice of bread.

That's the spirit Max! What will actually happen is that a lot of companies that do a lot of work in the Single Market Eurowill seek to ensure that they stay in the Single Market. Euro It's not brain surgery and it was pretty well signalled. Sorry you don't like it - but there you go.

Fixed it for ye.....

Pulpstar

Philip_Thompson said:

Pulpstar said:

Pong said:

FPT;

Pong said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Also, note how much better off (in net income terms after housing costs) people born in the 1970s and 1980s are compared with those born earlier, at equivalent points in their lives.

Interesting indeed.

Most likely explanation is it's a consequence of women entering the workforce in much larger numbers, earning higher (more equal) salaries.

The graph is showing household income - a real income (after housing costs) comparison for working age males would be quite different, I suspect.

Employer (And employee) contributions on pensions are a frog that the Gov't should look to boil to perhaps 10/10 by 2030.

Honest question but why should an employer bear responsibility for an employees pension? Especially given the death of lifelong employment and employees can work for dozens of employers over their career? Would it not make more sense for an employer to simply pay the employee well and then let the employee choose their pension scheme? That way an employee can switch from employer to employer and all that matters is their wages for a job done in the employee/employer relationship.

The employer only bears the responsibility for the ER conts whilst the employee is at that company..

SouthamObserver

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

FPT for FF33


"It's about markets. If your market is Europe, which is almost synonymous with the EU, you are in the market you serve if you are based in the EU and not if you are based in the Brexited UK. If you don't need to be in the market to serve it, you can be anywhere - China, USA, Mexico. The UK loses out either way."

The problem with all these negative analyses of post-Brexit Britain, and why they are already proving to be overly pessimistic, is that they presume we are just a passive observer. A nation to which things are done. The submissive in a BDSM relationship with Europe, the world, and reality.

They ignore the possibility - indeed likelihood - that post-Brexit Britain will DO STUFF to make the nation more attractive to investment, better for banks, extra-welcoming to smarter migrants, and so forth, to counteract the negatives of Brexit.

The gloomier Remainers also refuse the possibility that Britain will simply benefit as a country from governing itself: we won't have anyone else to blame any more.

Brexit will being major difficulties. But also major opportunities

Clearly you don't understand the programme, Brexit means all of our manufacturers and banks will decamp to Europe, @SouthamObserver will open an office in Spain to answer phone calls (in Spanglish, of course) and the UK will become a wasteland of joblessness and Sterling will fall to a value where it is measured in wheelbarrows per slice of bread.

That's the spirit Max! What will actually happen is that a lot of companies that do a lot of work in the Single Market will seek to ensure that they stay in the Single Market. It's not brain surgery and it was pretty well signalled. Sorry you don't like it - but there you go.

I'm sure they will, but the reality is that a lot of the work just won't get done at all, which is lose/lose rather than your presentation of lose/win for the UK/EU. The reality is that in a trade war neither side wins, @rcs1000 had a handy chart about falling trade in the great depression.

The downside is greater for us than them. That's my only point.

CarlottaVance

TheScreamingEagles said:

Indeed, usurper May needs to be reminded she's never been elected as PM, and she's using Cameron's majority, so stick to the manifesto, like things on grammar schools.

In what way is May a 'usurper'?

Cameron stood down - after promising not to.

Osborne didn't even put his name forward - at least he gets marks for self awareness.

Bitter posh boys......

SouthamObserver

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

FPT for FF33


"It's about markets. If your market is Europe, which is almost synonymous with the EU, you are in the market you serve if you are based in the EU and not if you are based in the Brexited UK. If you don't need to be in the market to serve it, you can be anywhere - China, USA, Mexico. The UK loses out either way."

The problem with all these negative analyses of post-Brexit Britain, and why they are already proving to be overly pessimistic, is that they presume we are just a passive observer. A nation to which things are done. The submissive in a BDSM relationship with Europe, the world, and reality.

They ignore the possibility - indeed likelihood - that post-Brexit Britain will DO STUFF to make the nation more attractive to investment, better for banks, extra-welcoming to smarter migrants, and so forth, to counteract the negatives of Brexit.

The gloomier Remainers also refuse the possibility that Britain will simply benefit as a country from governing itself: we won't have anyone else to blame any more.

Brexit will being major difficulties. But also major opportunities

Clearly you don't understand the programme, Brexit means all of our manufacturers and banks will decamp to Europe, @SouthamObserver will open an office in Spain to answer phone calls (in Spanglish, of course) and the UK will become a wasteland of joblessness and Sterling will fall to a value where it is measured in wheelbarrows per slice of bread.

That's the spirit Max! What will actually happen is that a lot of companies that do a lot of work in the Single Market Eurowill seek to ensure that they stay in the Single Market. Euro It's not brain surgery and it was pretty well signalled. Sorry you don't like it - but there you go.

Fixed it for ye.....

No, you haven't.

matt

But we are where we are and we are seeing increasing use of terms like “the unelected PM

Per the header, it would be useful to know who is claiming this and whether it's seen anywhere other than the BBC, the Guardian and the Mirror.

CarlottaVance

justin124 said:

I am not persuaded that Witney is so important for May. Callaghan succeeded Wilson in April 1976 , and a few months later Labour suffered disastrous by election results at Workington and Walsall North. Similarly the Tories lost Ribble Valley not long after Major became PM.Neither Callaghan nor Major were particularly undermined by those setbacks.

A little expectations framing going on by OGH?

Con hold with reduced majority = 'catastrophe'

Con loss - MAY MUST RESIGN!!!

Witney clearly has a huge personal vote for Cameron - it would be odd if the Con vote share didn't fall...

Philip_Thompson

Pulpstar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Pulpstar said:

Pong said:

FPT;

Pong said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Also, note how much better off (in net income terms after housing costs) people born in the 1970s and 1980s are compared with those born earlier, at equivalent points in their lives.

Interesting indeed.

Most likely explanation is it's a consequence of women entering the workforce in much larger numbers, earning higher (more equal) salaries.

The graph is showing household income - a real income (after housing costs) comparison for working age males would be quite different, I suspect.

Employer (And employee) contributions on pensions are a frog that the Gov't should look to boil to perhaps 10/10 by 2030.

Honest question but why should an employer bear responsibility for an employees pension? Especially given the death of lifelong employment and employees can work for dozens of employers over their career? Would it not make more sense for an employer to simply pay the employee well and then let the employee choose their pension scheme? That way an employee can switch from employer to employer and all that matters is their wages for a job done in the employee/employer relationship.

The employer only bears the responsibility for the ER conts whilst the employee is at that company..

I know that and I'm asking why should they? I would be in favour of abolishing ER costs and Employers NI etc altogether which are all a drain on employment and see the money just simply as wages. Let the employee decide what to do with their money. If the government wants to encourage or mandate a percentage of wages to go to pensions they can do that without giving yet another layer for employers to deal with. Why make three people do one persons job?

Any employer that has to make contributions and pay Employers NI etc will be taking those into account when making employment decisions.

MaxPB

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

FPT for FF33


"It's about markets. If your market is Europe, which is almost synonymous with the EU, you are in the market you serve if you are based in the EU and not if you are based in the Brexited UK. If you don't need to be in the market to serve it, you can be anywhere - China, USA, Mexico. The UK loses out either way."

The problem with all these negative analyses of post-Brexit Britain, and why they are already proving to be overly pessimistic, is that they presume we are just a passive observer. A nation to which things are done. The submissive in a BDSM relationship with Europe, the world, and reality.

They ignore the possibility - indeed likelihood - that post-Brexit Britain will DO STUFF to make the nation more attractive to investment, better for banks, extra-welcoming to smarter migrants, and so forth, to counteract the negatives of Brexit.

The gloomier Remainers also refuse the possibility that Britain will simply benefit as a country from governing itself: we won't have anyone else to blame any more.

Brexit will being major difficulties. But also major opportunities

Clearly you don't understand the programme, Brexit means all of our manufacturers and banks will decamp to Europe, @SouthamObserver will open an office in Spain to answer phone calls (in Spanglish, of course) and the UK will become a wasteland of joblessness and Sterling will fall to a value where it is measured in wheelbarrows per slice of bread.

That's the spirit Max! What will actually happen is that a lot of companies that do a lot of work in the Single Market will seek to ensure that they stay in the Single Market. It's not brain surgery and it was pretty well signalled. Sorry you don't like it - but there you go.

I'm sure they will, but the reality is that a lot of the work just won't get done at all, which is lose/lose rather than your presentation of lose/win for the UK/EU. The reality is that in a trade war neither side wins, @rcs1000 had a handy chart about falling trade in the great depression.

The downside is greater for us than them. That's my only point.

Not in the places that stand to lose, and most of those are in creditor Northern nations. Sweden are already trying to preempt any move to increase contributions to make up for the £65-75bn the EU stands to lose from next budget cycle. The industrial regions which depend on UK consumers buying BMW and Mercedes instead of Jaguar and Lexus or even VW instead of Nissan will be looking to ensure they can still sell to us on even terms as domestic and possibly overseas sellers with whom we come to trade arrangements.

CarlottaVance

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

FPT for FF33


"It's about markets. If your market is Europe, which is almost synonymous with the EU, you are in the market you serve if you are based in the EU and not if you are based in the Brexited UK. If you don't need to be in the market to serve it, you can be anywhere - China, USA, Mexico. The UK loses out either way."

The problem with all these negative analyses of post-Brexit Britain, and why they are already proving to be overly pessimistic, is that they presume we are just a passive observer. A nation to which things are done. The submissive in a BDSM relationship with Europe, the world, and reality.

They ignore the possibility - indeed likelihood - that post-Brexit Britain will DO STUFF to make the nation more attractive to investment, better for banks, extra-welcoming to smarter migrants, and so forth, to counteract the negatives of Brexit.

The gloomier Remainers also refuse the possibility that Britain will simply benefit as a country from governing itself: we won't have anyone else to blame any more.

Brexit will being major difficulties. But also major opportunities

Clearly you don't understand the programme, Brexit means all of our manufacturers and banks will decamp to Europe, @SouthamObserver will open an office in Spain to answer phone calls (in Spanglish, of course) and the UK will become a wasteland of joblessness and Sterling will fall to a value where it is measured in wheelbarrows per slice of bread.

That's the spirit Max! What will actually happen is that a lot of companies that do a lot of work in the Single Market Eurowill seek to ensure that they stay in the Single Market. Euro It's not brain surgery and it was pretty well signalled. Sorry you don't like it - but there you go.

Fixed it for ye.....

No, you haven't.

You are Carlos 'I'll close Sunderland if you don't join the Euro leave the EU' Ghosn and I claim my £5.....

FF43

SeanT said:

FPT for FF33


"It's about markets. If your market is Europe, which is almost synonymous with the EU, you are in the market you serve if you are based in the EU and not if you are based in the Brexited UK. If you don't need to be in the market to serve it, you can be anywhere - China, USA, Mexico. The UK loses out either way."

The problem with all these negative analyses of post-Brexit Britain, and why they are already proving to be overly pessimistic, is that they presume we are just a passive observer. A nation to which things are done. The submissive in a BDSM relationship with Europe, the world, and reality.

They ignore the possibility - indeed likelihood - that post-Brexit Britain will DO STUFF to make the nation more attractive to investment, better for banks, extra-welcoming to smarter migrants, and so forth, to counteract the negatives of Brexit.

The gloomier Remainers also refuse the possibility that Britain will simply benefit as a country from governing itself: we won't have anyone else to blame any more.

Brexit will being major difficulties. But also major opportunities

Nevertheless, the point I made about markets is still valid. To compensate for no longer being inside the largest and deepest single internal market in the world we either have to be better than those that are still there or we have to be better than those that have always been outside it. Leaving the EU doesn't make it easier for us to improve beyond we could have done, and maybe should have done, anyway. At best leaving the EU is a jolt to our previous complacency. It doesn't bring any opportunities, as such. I do however believe in making the best of the situation we are in. We didn't do that before. But it does mean recognising there is a problem.

Stark_Dawning

'The Tories have to win Witney and win big.'

Quite right Mike. If the Tories lost here it would be catastrophic. I think that's unlikely; nevertheless there are a few reasons why the Witney voters might upset the apple cart:

1) They take a dim view of the manner in which May humiliated their Dave and set about trashing his legacy.

2) They react badly to May's capitulation to the hard-Brexit ultras.

3) They regard May as a bit suburban and down-at-heel - she walks over their land, for example, rather than riding horses on it - and want to teach her a lesson for her presumptions.

Again, I think a loss is unlikely. Having said that, until Cameron, Tories' getting humiliated in by-elections was a given. Perhaps those days will be upon us again soon.

taffys

''Witney clearly has a huge personal vote for Cameron - it would be odd if the Con vote share didn't fall... ''

I think losing Witney might be a very big blow to May, and her agenda.

JonathanD

I don't think May needs to worry about 'unelected PM' jibes since they are only coming from the usual suspects.

She maybe does need to worry about the bye-election becoming a proxy battle between hard and soft Brexit.

MaxPB

FF43 said:

SeanT said:

FPT for FF33


"It's about markets. If your market is Europe, which is almost synonymous with the EU, you are in the market you serve if you are based in the EU and not if you are based in the Brexited UK. If you don't need to be in the market to serve it, you can be anywhere - China, USA, Mexico. The UK loses out either way."

The problem with all these negative analyses of post-Brexit Britain, and why they are already proving to be overly pessimistic, is that they presume we are just a passive observer. A nation to which things are done. The submissive in a BDSM relationship with Europe, the world, and reality.

They ignore the possibility - indeed likelihood - that post-Brexit Britain will DO STUFF to make the nation more attractive to investment, better for banks, extra-welcoming to smarter migrants, and so forth, to counteract the negatives of Brexit.

The gloomier Remainers also refuse the possibility that Britain will simply benefit as a country from governing itself: we won't have anyone else to blame any more.

Brexit will being major difficulties. But also major opportunities

Nevertheless, the point I made about markets is still valid. To compensate for no longer being inside the largest and deepest single internal market in the world we either have to be better than those that are still there or we have to be better than those that have always been outside it. Leaving the EU doesn't make it easier for us to improve beyond we could have done, and maybe should have done, anyway. At best leaving the EU is a jolt to our previous complacency. It doesn't bring any opportunities, as such. I do however believe in making the best of the situation we are in. We didn't do that before. But it does mean recognising there is a problem.

The US is the largest single market in the world. Please stop repeating the falsehood that it is the EU. The single market for services doesn't even really exist.

MTimT

matt said:

But we are where we are and we are seeing increasing use of terms like “the unelected PM

Per the header, it would be useful to know who is claiming this and whether it's seen anywhere other than the BBC, the Guardian and the Mirror.

I think Mike means increasing use in thread headers written by OGH for pb.com. None before today, today one. Hence increasing.

Philip_Thompson

FF43 said:

SeanT said:

FPT for FF33


"It's about markets. If your market is Europe, which is almost synonymous with the EU, you are in the market you serve if you are based in the EU and not if you are based in the Brexited UK. If you don't need to be in the market to serve it, you can be anywhere - China, USA, Mexico. The UK loses out either way."

The problem with all these negative analyses of post-Brexit Britain, and why they are already proving to be overly pessimistic, is that they presume we are just a passive observer. A nation to which things are done. The submissive in a BDSM relationship with Europe, the world, and reality.

They ignore the possibility - indeed likelihood - that post-Brexit Britain will DO STUFF to make the nation more attractive to investment, better for banks, extra-welcoming to smarter migrants, and so forth, to counteract the negatives of Brexit.

The gloomier Remainers also refuse the possibility that Britain will simply benefit as a country from governing itself: we won't have anyone else to blame any more.

Brexit will being major difficulties. But also major opportunities

Nevertheless, the point I made about markets is still valid. To compensate for no longer being inside the largest and deepest single internal market in the world we either have to be better than those that are still there or we have to be better than those that have always been outside it. Leaving the EU doesn't make it easier for us to improve beyond we could have done, and maybe should have done, anyway. At best leaving the EU is a jolt to our previous complacency. It doesn't bring any opportunities, as such. I do however believe in making the best of the situation we are in. We didn't do that before. But it does mean recognising there is a problem.

It brings lots of opportunities:

1 The opportunity to sign trade deals the protectionist EU either hasn't or won't.
2 The opportunity to change destructive laws the EU has passed.
3 The opportunity to avoid laws the EU will pass it the future
4 The opportunity to pass laws that we want but the EU doesn't.
5 The opportunity to spend our money directly rather than via Brussels that sees half.of.it never returned to us.

That's just for starters.

Richard_Nabavi

Good attempt to make a 1/33 betting market sound mildly interesting.

(The 5/2 on Lab second place looks good, though).

david_herdson

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Indeed, usurper May needs to be reminded she's never been elected as PM, and she's using Cameron's majority, so stick to the manifesto, like things on grammar schools.

In what way is May a 'usurper'?

Cameron stood down - after promising not to.

Osborne didn't even put his name forward - at least he gets marks for self awareness.

Bitter posh boys......

True, but TSE's point is still valid re the manifesto. It's a Conservative government that was elected on a Conservative manifesto and significant departures from it don't have a mandate.

MaxPB

SeanT said:

FF43 said:

SeanT said:

FPT for FF33


"It's about markets. If your market is Europe, which is almost synonymous with the EU, you are in the market you serve if you are based in the EU and not if you are based in the Brexited UK. If you don't need to be in the market to serve it, you can be anywhere - China, USA, Mexico. The UK loses out either way."

The problem with all these negative analyses of post-Brexit Britain, and why they are already proving to be overly pessimistic, is that they presume we are just a passive observer. A nation to which things are done. The submissive in a BDSM relationship with Europe, the world, and reality.

They ignore the possibility - indeed likelihood - that post-Brexit Britain will DO STUFF to make the nation more attractive to investment, better for banks, extra-welcoming to smarter migrants, and so forth, to counteract the negatives of Brexit.

The gloomier Remainers also refuse the possibility that Britain will simply benefit as a country from governing itself: we won't have anyone else to blame any more.

Brexit will being major difficulties. But also major opportunities

Nevertheless, the point I made about markets is still valid. To compensate for no longer being inside the largest and deepest single internal market in the world we either have to be better than those that are still there or we have to be better than those that have always been outside it. Leaving the EU doesn't make it easier for us to improve beyond we could have done, and maybe should have done, anyway. At best leaving the EU is a jolt to our previous complacency. It doesn't bring any opportunities, as such. I do however believe in making the best of the situation we are in. We didn't do that before. But it does mean recognising there is a problem.

You simply don't understand. I think my point is fundamentally beyond your comprehension, so I suggest we talk about something else.

Yes. It is beyond the comprehension of EUphiles to understand that leaving the EU can be good for a nation over the long term. Just remember that many of those on here want the UK to join the Euro in the future or see not joining as a mistake and want us to be in the superstate. Their views are not in line with the average remain voter.

TheScreamingEagles

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Indeed, usurper May needs to be reminded she's never been elected as PM, and she's using Cameron's majority, so stick to the manifesto, like things on grammar schools.

In what way is May a 'usurper'?

Cameron stood down - after promising not to.

Osborne didn't even put his name forward - at least he gets marks for self awareness.

Bitter posh boys......

Significant departures from the manifesto that helped the Tories win a majority for the first time in nearly a quarter of a century.

david_herdson

CarlottaVance said:

justin124 said:

I am not persuaded that Witney is so important for May. Callaghan succeeded Wilson in April 1976 , and a few months later Labour suffered disastrous by election results at Workington and Walsall North. Similarly the Tories lost Ribble Valley not long after Major became PM.Neither Callaghan nor Major were particularly undermined by those setbacks.

A little expectations framing going on by OGH?

Con hold with reduced majority = 'catastrophe'

Con loss - MAY MUST RESIGN!!!

Witney clearly has a huge personal vote for Cameron - it would be odd if the Con vote share didn't fall...

Cameron did do particularly well last time. His 60.2% share was better than Douglas Hurd ever managed (his best was 57.5% in 1987). I'd still expect a comfortable Con win but par should be about a 50% share.

FF43

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

SeanT said:

FPT for FF33


"It's about markets. If your market is Europe, which is almost synonymous with the EU, you are in the market you serve if you are based in the EU and not if you are based in the Brexited UK. If you don't need to be in the market to serve it, you can be anywhere - China, USA, Mexico. The UK loses out either way."

The problem with all these negative analyses of post-Brexit Britain, and why they are already proving to be overly pessimistic, is that they presume we are just a passive observer. A nation to which things are done. The submissive in a BDSM relationship with Europe, the world, and reality.

They ignore the possibility - indeed likelihood - that post-Brexit Britain will DO STUFF to make the nation more attractive to investment, better for banks, extra-welcoming to smarter migrants, and so forth, to counteract the negatives of Brexit.

The gloomier Remainers also refuse the possibility that Britain will simply benefit as a country from governing itself: we won't have anyone else to blame any more.

Brexit will being major difficulties. But also major opportunities

Nevertheless, the point I made about markets is still valid. To compensate for no longer being inside the largest and deepest single internal market in the world we either have to be better than those that are still there or we have to be better than those that have always been outside it. Leaving the EU doesn't make it easier for us to improve beyond we could have done, and maybe should have done, anyway. At best leaving the EU is a jolt to our previous complacency. It doesn't bring any opportunities, as such. I do however believe in making the best of the situation we are in. We didn't do that before. But it does mean recognising there is a problem.

The US is the largest single market in the world. Please stop repeating the falsehood that it is the EU. The single market for services doesn't even really exist.

OK single transnational market. we aren't and never likely will be part of the US market, so that's irrelevant to us. It goes without saying of course. The single market for services does exist, even if barriers aren't entirely removed. Arguably there are fewer barriers in the EU single market than there are in the Canadian one.

MaxPB

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Indeed, usurper May needs to be reminded she's never been elected as PM, and she's using Cameron's majority, so stick to the manifesto, like things on grammar schools.

In what way is May a 'usurper'?

Cameron stood down - after promising not to.

Osborne didn't even put his name forward - at least he gets marks for self awareness.

Bitter posh boys......

Significant departures from the manifesto that helped the Tories win a majority for the first time in nearly a quarter of a century.

Indeed. She should be fulfilling the current Tory mandate, not going beyond it on some fool's errand with an ill conceived policy on grammar schools, which, IMO, will damage the case for selective education in the long term.

JonathanD

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

SeanT said:

FPT for FF33


"It's about markets. If your market is Europe, which is almost synonymous with the EU, you are in the market you serve if you are based in the EU and not if you are based in the Brexited UK. If you don't need to be in the market to serve it, you can be anywhere - China, USA, Mexico. The UK loses out either way."

The problem with all these negative analyses of post-Brexit Britain, and why they are already proving to be overly pessimistic, is that they presume we are just a passive observer. A nation to which things are done. The submissive in a BDSM relationship with Europe, the world, and reality.

They ignore the possibility - indeed likelihood - that post-Brexit Britain will DO STUFF to make the nation more attractive to investment, better for banks, extra-welcoming to smarter migrants, and so forth, to counteract the negatives of Brexit.

The gloomier Remainers also refuse the possibility that Britain will simply benefit as a country from governing itself: we won't have anyone else to blame any more.

Brexit will being major difficulties. But also major opportunities

Nevertheless, the point I made about markets is still valid. To compensate for no longer being inside the largest and deepest single internal market in the world we either have to be better than those that are still there or we have to be better than those that have always been outside it. Leaving the EU doesn't make it easier for us to improve beyond we could have done, and maybe should have done, anyway. At best leaving the EU is a jolt to our previous complacency. It doesn't bring any opportunities, as such. I do however believe in making the best of the situation we are in. We didn't do that before. But it does mean recognising there is a problem.

It brings lots of opportunities:

1 The opportunity to sign trade deals the protectionist EU either hasn't or won't.
2 The opportunity to change destructive laws the EU has passed.
3 The opportunity to avoid laws the EU will pass it the future
4 The opportunity to pass laws that we want but the EU doesn't.
5 The opportunity to spend our money directly rather than via Brussels that sees half.of.it never returned to us.

That's just for starters.

Does this wish list have any numbers attached to it? If it is so straight forward I assume Leave published some nice detailed work about it during the referendum.

[Deleted User]

One thing we can do after Brexit is open our food markets to the world. Of course our farmers will squeal bloody murder - but we could significantly reduce the cost of food bills across the UK, with attendant improvement in household budgets and the economy in general. Also this would give money and hope to impoverished agricultural producers who are currently largely excluded from many big markets. Personally I think such a move would be a big fillip to UK farming in exactly the same way that precisely the same move was to NZ farmers. Imagine though the political impact of cutting £40 off the average weekly shop.

Philip_Thompson

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Indeed, usurper May needs to be reminded she's never been elected as PM, and she's using Cameron's majority, so stick to the manifesto, like things on grammar schools.

In what way is May a 'usurper'?

Cameron stood down - after promising not to.

Osborne didn't even put his name forward - at least he gets marks for self awareness.

Bitter posh boys......

Significant departures from the manifesto that helped the Tories win a majority for the first time in nearly a quarter of a century.

Given that Cameron resigned May can either attempt to implement his manifesto and be a poor imitation of Cameron until 2020 before seeking her own mandate ... or be herself and lead the way she intends to and be judged by the electorate in 2020 accordingly.

Realistically in a Parliamentary system she needs to do the latter. That will inevitably entail some changes to what was in the manifesto but that is part of Parliamentary politics as opposed to Cameron having been elected President for a fixed term in office.

logical_song

JonathanD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

SeanT said:

FPT for FF33


"It's about markets. If your market is Europe, which is almost synonymous with the EU, you are in the market you serve if you are based in the EU and not if you are based in the Brexited UK. If you don't need to be in the market to serve it, you can be anywhere - China, USA, Mexico. The UK loses out either way."

The problem with all these negative analyses of post-Brexit Britain, and why they are already proving to be overly pessimistic, is that they presume we are just a passive observer. A nation to which things are done. The submissive in a BDSM relationship with Europe, the world, and reality.

They ignore the possibility - indeed likelihood - that post-Brexit Britain will DO STUFF to make the nation more attractive to investment, better for banks, extra-welcoming to smarter migrants, and so forth, to counteract the negatives of Brexit.

The gloomier Remainers also refuse the possibility that Britain will simply benefit as a country from governing itself: we won't have anyone else to blame any more.

Brexit will being major difficulties. But also major opportunities

Nevertheless, the point I made about markets is still valid. To compensate for no longer being inside the largest and deepest single internal market in the world we either have to be better than those that are still there or we have to be better than those that have always been outside it. Leaving the EU doesn't make it easier for us to improve beyond we could have done, and maybe should have done, anyway. At best leaving the EU is a jolt to our previous complacency. It doesn't bring any opportunities, as such. I do however believe in making the best of the situation we are in. We didn't do that before. But it does mean recognising there is a problem.

It brings lots of opportunities:

1 The opportunity to sign trade deals the protectionist EU either hasn't or won't.
2 The opportunity to change destructive laws the EU has passed.
3 The opportunity to avoid laws the EU will pass it the future
4 The opportunity to pass laws that we want but the EU doesn't.
5 The opportunity to spend our money directly rather than via Brussels that sees half.of.it never returned to us.

That's just for starters.

Does this wish list have any numbers attached to it? If it is so straight forward I assume Leave published some nice detailed work about it during the referendum.

Probably use the £350million/week again.

felix

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

Stark_Dawning

JonathanD said:

I don't think May needs to worry about 'unelected PM' jibes since they are only coming from the usual suspects.

She maybe does need to worry about the bye-election becoming a proxy battle between hard and soft Brexit.

Yes, many Leavers will feel unnerved. They believed the Borises and Carswells of this world who said it was mainly about sovereignty and that the beneficial trade stuff was safe in their hands. All that is now an empty husk: it is the agenda of IDS and Farage that is running amok. This might be seen as a way off getting the ultras back to heel.

El_Capitano

As I see them, the challenges for the Conservatives in Witney are three-fold:

1. Witney is a 'One Nation' Conservative area and you can more or less place both Cameron and Hurd in that tradition. The mood music from May's Government thus far is somewhere to the right of this.

2. There are some painful local issues: A40 congestion, unaffordable housing, hospital closures/downgrades. All three tiers of Government (district, county, Westminster) are Conservative. It's hard to escape blame.

3. Very few people outside WOCA had ever heard of the Conservative candidate before selection. Both the Lib Dems and Labour have selected well-known local names.

Overturning Cameron's majority would be a Herculean task, but this is the first time (as a resident) that I've even considered it might be possible.

Pulpstar

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

Well my mortgage and day to day expenses are still in £ sterling, and I bought my new camera pre-brexit

williamglenn

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

That's the spirit Max! What will actually happen is that a lot of companies that do a lot of work in the Single Market will seek to ensure that they stay in the Single Market. It's not brain surgery and it was pretty well signalled. Sorry you don't like it - but there you go.

I'm sure they will, but the reality is that a lot of the work just won't get done at all, which is lose/lose rather than your presentation of lose/win for the UK/EU. The reality is that in a trade war neither side wins, @rcs1000 had a handy chart about falling trade in the great depression.

The downside is greater for us than them. That's my only point.

Again, you don't know. No one can know. Brexit is too big, complex, dynamic for that.

I've made the analogy a hundred times but I'll do it again: Brexit is like having a baby. We're about to have our first baby. And you're trying to predict whether we will be happier one, three and ten years after we've had that first child, and you're doing it by focusing on the inevitable restrictions on our ability to go to restaurants, once we become a parent.

I kind of understand the narrowness and myopia, it's because you're a businessman. But it is still a narrow, myopic vision.

The analogy gets the frenzied emotions right, and explains why 'calling your baby ugly' provokes such a strong reaction.

logical_song

SeanT said:

Stark_Dawning said:

'The Tories have to win Witney and win big.'

Quite right Mike. If the Tories lost here it would be catastrophic. I think that's unlikely; nevertheless there are a few reasons why the Witney voters might upset the apple cart:

1) They take a dim view of the manner in which May humiliated their Dave and set about trashing his legacy.

2) They react badly to May's capitulation to the hard-Brexit ultras.

3) They regard May as a bit suburban and down-at-heel - she walks over their land, for example, rather than riding horses on it - and want to teach her a lesson for her presumptions.

Again, I think a loss is unlikely. Having said that, until Cameron, Tories' getting humiliated in by-elections was a given. Perhaps those days will be upon us again soon.

May is popular. More popular than Cameron at the last General Election. The Tories will win Witney, easily.

The rest of your post is borderline whacko. How many Witney voters are actually significant landowners, FFS? The constituency is not Knightsbridge: it's prosperous rural middle England, market towns, the Cotswolds, RAF Brize Norton.

Your desperation post-Brexit is quite a spectacle

The Tories should certainly win Witney easily, they had a 43% majority last time (that's right that's their majority, not their vote!)
Any estimates of what it will be this time?

Philip_Thompson

JonathanD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

Nevertheless, the point I made about markets is still valid. To compensate for no longer being inside the largest and deepest single internal market in the world we either have to be better than those that are still there or we have to be better than those that have always been outside it. Leaving the EU doesn't make it easier for us to improve beyond we could have done, and maybe should have done, anyway. At best leaving the EU is a jolt to our previous complacency. It doesn't bring any opportunities, as such. I do however believe in making the best of the situation we are in. We didn't do that before. But it does mean recognising there is a problem.

It brings lots of opportunities:

1 The opportunity to sign trade deals the protectionist EU either hasn't or won't.
2 The opportunity to change destructive laws the EU has passed.
3 The opportunity to avoid laws the EU will pass it the future
4 The opportunity to pass laws that we want but the EU doesn't.
5 The opportunity to spend our money directly rather than via Brussels that sees half.of.it never returned to us.

That's just for starters.

Does this wish list have any numbers attached to it? If it is so straight forward I assume Leave published some nice detailed work about it during the referendum.

1 is about international agreements and will be up for negotiations. We have a cabinet secretary looking to make these agreements already and already got expressions of interest from many nations before we have even left the EU. This is a long term issue not a short term one.

2 to 4 are about sovereignty and Westminster not simply numbers. Elect a government that does what you want it to do.

5 has a number yes. £350mn per week gross which as I said sees about half returned to us but without another layer of government we can choose how to spend all of it.

TGOHF

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

I guess that explains why the metropolitan wealthy with second homes abroad are so furious that the peasants voted for Brexit.

MaxPB

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Indeed, usurper May needs to be reminded she's never been elected as PM, and she's using Cameron's majority, so stick to the manifesto, like things on grammar schools.

In what way is May a 'usurper'?

Cameron stood down - after promising not to.

Osborne didn't even put his name forward - at least he gets marks for self awareness.

Bitter posh boys......

Significant departures from the manifesto that helped the Tories win a majority for the first time in nearly a quarter of a century.

Indeed. She should be fulfilling the current Tory mandate, not going beyond it on some fool's errand with an ill conceived policy on grammar schools, which, IMO, will damage the case for selective education in the long term.

At the moment I am touring school in north London, for my older daughter, who goes to secondary next September.

The quality of schools is quite astonishing. I went to one, Wren Academy ("outstanding" according to Ofsted). Compared to my rattly old comp, it was like a small, rich university. It has its own theatre. A huge computer complex. School trips go around the world, all year. The kids were all enthusiastic, articulate, well behaved. It's Church of England - but full of all races and creeds.

The one good thing Labour did was pump money into education, and the Coalition and the Tories continued that, and the one place it's REALLY worked is London.

What May's government should be doing is working out how to translate the success of London schools to the rest of the UK

Henrietta Barnett in Hampstead is probably the best non-fee paying girl's school in the country. Consider it. If you're up for paying fees then consider St Paul's and Habs for girls in Hertfordshire. I got into the boy's school for the latter but my parents couldn't afford the fees.

MaxPB

williamglenn said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

That's the spirit Max! What will actually happen is that a lot of companies that do a lot of work in the Single Market will seek to ensure that they stay in the Single Market. It's not brain surgery and it was pretty well signalled. Sorry you don't like it - but there you go.

I'm sure they will, but the reality is that a lot of the work just won't get done at all, which is lose/lose rather than your presentation of lose/win for the UK/EU. The reality is that in a trade war neither side wins, @rcs1000 had a handy chart about falling trade in the great depression.

The downside is greater for us than them. That's my only point.

Again, you don't know. No one can know. Brexit is too big, complex, dynamic for that.

I've made the analogy a hundred times but I'll do it again: Brexit is like having a baby. We're about to have our first baby. And you're trying to predict whether we will be happier one, three and ten years after we've had that first child, and you're doing it by focusing on the inevitable restrictions on our ability to go to restaurants, once we become a parent.

I kind of understand the narrowness and myopia, it's because you're a businessman. But it is still a narrow, myopic vision.

The analogy gets the frenzied emotions right, and explains why 'calling your baby ugly' provokes such a strong reaction.

Is that how you feel when we insult your prized EU?

david_herdson

SeanT said:

williamglenn said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

That's the spirit Max! What will actually happen is that a lot of companies that do a lot of work in the Single Market will seek to ensure that they stay in the Single Market. It's not brain surgery and it was pretty well signalled. Sorry you don't like it - but there you go.

I'm sure they will, but the reality is that a lot of the work just won't get done at all, which is lose/lose rather than your presentation of lose/win for the UK/EU. The reality is that in a trade war neither side wins, @rcs1000 had a handy chart about falling trade in the great depression.

The downside is greater for us than them. That's my only point.

Again, you don't know. No one can know. Brexit is too big, complex, dynamic for that.

I've made the analogy a hundred times but I'll do it again: Brexit is like having a baby. We're about to have our first baby. And you're trying to predict whether we will be happier one, three and ten years after we've had that first child, and you're doing it by focusing on the inevitable restrictions on our ability to go to restaurants, once we become a parent.

I kind of understand the narrowness and myopia, it's because you're a businessman. But it is still a narrow, myopic vision.

The analogy gets the frenzied emotions right, and explains why 'calling your baby ugly' provokes such a strong reaction.

My analogy is near-perfect, as I am sure Richard Nabavi would agree.

It also explains why Remainers are so bitter. They never wanted to have kids. They never wanted this fucking brat, and now they have to sit in a room full of soiled nappies for three years?? And never go out again and have fun?>

Some of the nuttier ones are still hoping for a dangerous illegal abortion at the last minute, no matter the risk to the mother, or they hope to smother the baby in the crib.

So we're all going to get covered in shit the next two years, but it might be worth it when Liberty cracks her first smile?

Philip_Thompson

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

williamglenn said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

That's the spirit Max! What will actually happen is that a lot of companies that do a lot of work in the Single Market will seek to ensure that they stay in the Single Market. It's not brain surgery and it was pretty well signalled. Sorry you don't like it - but there you go.

I'm sure they will, but the reality is that a lot of the work just won't get done at all, which is lose/lose rather than your presentation of lose/win for the UK/EU. The reality is that in a trade war neither side wins, @rcs1000 had a handy chart about falling trade in the great depression.

The downside is greater for us than them. That's my only point.

Again, you don't know. No one can know. Brexit is too big, complex, dynamic for that.

I've made the analogy a hundred times but I'll do it again: Brexit is like having a baby. We're about to have our first baby. And you're trying to predict whether we will be happier one, three and ten years after we've had that first child, and you're doing it by focusing on the inevitable restrictions on our ability to go to restaurants, once we become a parent.

I kind of understand the narrowness and myopia, it's because you're a businessman. But it is still a narrow, myopic vision.

The analogy gets the frenzied emotions right, and explains why 'calling your baby ugly' provokes such a strong reaction.

My analogy is near-perfect, as I am sure Richard Nabavi would agree.

It also explains why Remainers are so bitter. They never wanted to have kids. They never wanted this fucking brat, and now they have to sit in a room full of soiled nappies for three years?? And never go out again and have fun?>

Some of the nuttier ones are still hoping for a dangerous illegal abortion at the last minute, no matter the risk to the mother, or they hope to smother the baby in the crib.

So we're all going to get covered in shit the next two years, but it might be worth it when Liberty cracks her first smile?

There will be a lot of crying and noise but it won't end up anywhere near as bad as your worst fears.

david_herdson

TGOHF said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

I guess that explains why the metropolitan wealthy with second homes abroad are so furious that the peasants voted for Brexit.

They can always sell them. They'll be worth x% (20?) more in Sterling terms than they were in mid-June.

TheScreamingEagles

TGOHF said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

I guess that explains why the metropolitan wealthy with second homes abroad are so furious that the peasants voted for Brexit.

Peasants is such an inaccurate term. I prefer the term 'thick uneducated plebs'

SquareRoot

May and Hammond are very foolish in abandoning austerity. It will do for them as no doubt George Will say sometime soon.

tpfkar

SeanT said:

williamglenn said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

That's the spirit Max! What will actually happen is that a lot of companies that do a lot of work in the Single Market will seek to ensure that they stay in the Single Market. It's not brain surgery and it was pretty well signalled. Sorry you don't like it - but there you go.

I'm sure they will, but the reality is that a lot of the work just won't get done at all, which is lose/lose rather than your presentation of lose/win for the UK/EU. The reality is that in a trade war neither side wins, @rcs1000 had a handy chart about falling trade in the great depression.

The downside is greater for us than them. That's my only point.

Again, you don't know. No one can know. Brexit is too big, complex, dynamic for that.

I've made the analogy a hundred times but I'll do it again: Brexit is like having a baby. We're about to have our first baby. And you're trying to predict whether we will be happier one, three and ten years after we've had that first child, and you're doing it by focusing on the inevitable restrictions on our ability to go to restaurants, once we become a parent.

I kind of understand the narrowness and myopia, it's because you're a businessman. But it is still a narrow, myopic vision.

The analogy gets the frenzied emotions right, and explains why 'calling your baby ugly' provokes such a strong reaction.

My analogy is near-perfect, as I am sure Richard Nabavi would agree.

It also explains why Remainers are so bitter. They never wanted to have kids. They never wanted this fucking brat, and now they have to sit in a room full of soiled nappies for three years?? And never go out again and have fun?>

Some of the nuttier ones are still hoping for a dangerous illegal abortion at the last minute, no matter the risk to the mother, or they hope to smother the baby in the crib.

Not quite there Sean. Having a baby is an additional blessing / burden - but for the unconsolable Remainers, it's more about having something they valued forcibly taken away by others. I'm not sure you get that across in the extra responsibility of an unprepared parent - maybe the better analogy is having your child taken into care against your wishes, even though your relationship had many flaws?

Philip_Thompson

SquareRoot said:

May and Hammond are very foolish in abandoning austerity. It will do for them as no doubt George Will say sometime soon.

Are they abandoning austerity? They've abandoned a date but so did Osborne repeatedly a day nobody ever said he'd abandoned austerity.

MTimT

El_Capitano said:

Witney is a 'One Nation' Conservative area and you can more or less place both Cameron and Hurd in that tradition. The mood music from May's Government thus far is somewhere to the right of this.

Not sure how you get to this conclusion. Immigration, yes. Grammar schools vs academies seem policies using different approaches to address the same problem. May's other social pronouncements have been, if anything, in my mind further to the left than Cameron even if they are currently just bromides rather than fully formed policies.

Brexit/immigration aside, which as we saw in the referendum is not a right/left issue, I don't see how you can come to your conclusion.

MaxPB

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Indeed, usurper May needs to be reminded she's never been elected as PM, and she's using Cameron's majority, so stick to the manifesto, like things on grammar schools.

In what way is May a 'usurper'?

Cameron stood down - after promising not to.

Osborne didn't even put his name forward - at least he gets marks for self awareness.

Bitter posh boys......

Significant departures from the manifesto that helped the Tories win a majority for the first time in nearly a quarter of a century.

Indeed. She should be fulfilling the current Tory mandate, not going beyond it on some fool's errand with an ill conceived policy on grammar schools, which, IMO, will damage the case for selective education in the long term.

At the moment I am touring school in north London, for my older daughter, who goes to secondary next September.

The quality of schools is quite astonishing. I went to one, Wren Academy ("outstanding" according to Ofsted). Compared to my rattly old comp, it was like a small, rich university. It has its own theatre. A huge computer complex. School trips go around the world, all year. The kids were all enthusiastic, articulate, well behaved. It's Church of England - but full of all races and creeds.

The one good thing Labour did was pump money into education, and the Coalition and the Tories continued that, and the one place it's REALLY worked is London.

What May's government should be doing is working out how to translate the success of London schools to the rest of the UK

Henrietta Barnett in Hampstead is probably the best non-fee paying girl's school in the country. Consider it. If you're up for paying fees then consider St Paul's and Habs for girls in Hertfordshire. I got into the boy's school for the latter but my parents couldn't afford the fees.

I went to Henrietta Barnett. It's a great school BUT it has one huge problem. It's gone from 30% ethnic minority to 80% in ten years - and rising fast. In a couple more years the school will be entirely non-white.

It's now basically a free private school for wealthy Asian parents - mainly Indian - willing to tutor their girls til they faint.

Everyone knows this is a massive issue for Henrietta Barnett, but no one is willing to talk about it.

I want my daughter to go to a school that is recognisably British: a good mix of kids, not a monocultural hothouse.

Speaking as the brother of an Indian girl who went there, you're probably right.

SouthamObserver

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Indeed, usurper May needs to be reminded she's never been elected as PM, and she's using Cameron's majority, so stick to the manifesto, like things on grammar schools.

In what way is May a 'usurper'?

Cameron stood down - after promising not to.

Osborne didn't even put his name forward - at least he gets marks for self awareness.

Bitter posh boys......

Significant departures from the manifesto that helped the Tories win a majority for the first time in nearly a quarter of a century.

Indeed. She should be fulfilling the current Tory mandate, not going beyond it on some fool's errand with an ill conceived policy on grammar schools, which, IMO, will damage the case for selective education in the long term.

At the moment I am touring school in north London, for my older daughter, who goes to secondary next September.

The quality of schools is quite astonishing. I went to one, Wren Academy ("outstanding" according to Ofsted). Compared to my rattly old comp, it was like a small, rich university. It has its own theatre. A huge computer complex. School trips go around the world, all year. The kids were all enthusiastic, articulate, well behaved. It's Church of England - but full of all races and creeds.

The one good thing Labour did was pump money into education, and the Coalition and the Tories continued that, and the one place it's REALLY worked is London.

What May's government should be doing is working out how to translate the success of London schools to the rest of the UK

This is absolutely, 100% spot on.

FrankBooth

SeanT - You have the thorny issue of school funding. London schools have been better funded. I'm not sure the reasons for this are entirely clear. Some say it is due to local authorities in London being more ready to put money in. But I think the difference is rather substantial. It could at least be mentioned whenever people discuss the difference in attainment in London compared to Brexitland rather than just going on about the London Challenge and 'aspiration'.

SquareRoot

Philip_Thompson said:

SquareRoot said:

May and Hammond are very foolish in abandoning austerity. It will do for them as no doubt George Will say sometime soon.

Are they abandoning austerity? They've abandoned a date but so did Osborne repeatedly a day nobody ever said he'd abandoned austerity.

May and hammond will be likeViv Nicholson . it's going to be disastrous for the Tories.

MTimT

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

I guess that explains why the metropolitan wealthy with second homes abroad are so furious that the peasants voted for Brexit.

Peasants is such an inaccurate term. I prefer the term 'thick uneducated plebs'

TSE morphing into Mr Meeks. Someone call a doctor before it's too late.

TheScreamingEagles

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

I guess that explains why the metropolitan wealthy with second homes abroad are so furious that the peasants voted for Brexit.

Peasants is such an inaccurate term. I prefer the term 'thick uneducated plebs'

TSE morphing into Mr Meeks. Someone call a doctor before it's too late.

Well it is either that or Leavers are traitors.

FrankBooth

There was something very apt about Tony Blair launching his 2001 election campaign at a London Secondary School. When asked to defend the inadequacy of an academy in Cumbria, then secretary of state Ed Balls expalined that Cumbria was a long way from Whitehall. Well yes it is.

MTimT

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

I guess that explains why the metropolitan wealthy with second homes abroad are so furious that the peasants voted for Brexit.

Peasants is such an inaccurate term. I prefer the term 'thick uneducated plebs'

TSE morphing into Mr Meeks. Someone call a doctor before it's too late.

Well it is either that or Leavers are traitors.

Surprisingly, I don't agree that the choice is between those two descriptions.

Stark_Dawning

SquareRoot said:

May and Hammond are very foolish in abandoning austerity. It will do for them as no doubt George Will say sometime soon.

They've probably concluded, perhaps rightly, that you can't have austerity and Brexit. I suspect Brexit will necessitate a harvesting of the Magic Money Tree that would make even Gordon Brown feel sated. The Tories need to careful here: they're actually in danger of surrendering the mantle of fiscal responsibility to John McDonnell.

TheScreamingEagles

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

I guess that explains why the metropolitan wealthy with second homes abroad are so furious that the peasants voted for Brexit.

Peasants is such an inaccurate term. I prefer the term 'thick uneducated plebs'

TSE morphing into Mr Meeks. Someone call a doctor before it's too late.

Well it is either that or Leavers are traitors.

Surprisingly, I don't agree that the choice is between those two descriptions.

If I get the time, I shall publish a thread comparing Leavers to The Confederates States, and I'm trying to work out who the British Lincoln is.

I kinda know who shall be Ulysses S Grant is though

MaxPB

SeanT said:

Henrietta Barnett founded the school for "local girls with natural ability". Zero local girls now go there, they're bussed in from across Greater London.

At the open day I attended, with about 400 parents, I saw two other white parents. TWO.

This is bad for the school. And rather sad. White people in north London won't send their girls there any more, though few of them will admit why, unless you get them slightly drunk on prosecco.

If they introduced fees, even a small amount, the problem goes away.

Philip_Thompson

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

I guess that explains why the metropolitan wealthy with second homes abroad are so furious that the peasants voted for Brexit.

Peasants is such an inaccurate term. I prefer the term 'thick uneducated plebs'

TSE morphing into Mr Meeks. Someone call a doctor before it's too late.

Well it is either that or Leavers are traitors.

Surprisingly, I don't agree that the choice is between those two descriptions.

If I get the time, I shall publish a thread comparing Leavers to The Confederates States, and I'm trying to work out who the British Lincoln is.

I kinda know who shall be Ulysses S Grant is though

Lincoln is Boris

TheScreamingEagles

The Sunday Times/The Times have been serialising Ken Clarke's autobiography, looks a must read. This excerpt destroyed my faith in Michael Heseltine.

When Heseltine snatched a note meant for me

One of the only moments of minor drama in the first Major cabinet was a wholly ridiculous one. My seat in this cabinet was always opposite the prime minister and alongside Michael Heseltine. On one occasion, Michael was engaged in a vigorous political argument, with John and me ranged against him.

Throughout the meeting, officials entered periodically to hand little handwritten notes to the prime minister. He threw these across to me and I read them before folding them and passing them to Peter Brooke, then secretary of state for Northern Ireland. Michael became increasingly agitated by this and plainly began to suspect that some briefing was being supplied as part of a concerted campaign against his views.

On about the fourth or fifth occasion he snatched a note thrown to me in order to intercept it. He opened it and read “England 175 for 4”. It was the Test Match score in a game being avidly followed by three cricket fanatics. Michael, who could scarcely understand the difference between football and cricket and had no interest whatever in any kind of sport, reacted with a look of disbelief and obviously decided that he was dealing with lunatics.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/times2/clarke-on-camerons-inner-circle-i-was-plotted-against-and-deceived-ms0h0ghd0

Philip_Thompson

Osborne is Robert EU Lee

TheScreamingEagles

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

I guess that explains why the metropolitan wealthy with second homes abroad are so furious that the peasants voted for Brexit.

Peasants is such an inaccurate term. I prefer the term 'thick uneducated plebs'

TSE morphing into Mr Meeks. Someone call a doctor before it's too late.

Well it is either that or Leavers are traitors.

Surprisingly, I don't agree that the choice is between those two descriptions.

If I get the time, I shall publish a thread comparing Leavers to The Confederates States, and I'm trying to work out who the British Lincoln is.

I kinda know who shall be Ulysses S Grant is though

Lincoln is Boris

I have Boris down as Grant.

williamglenn

SeanT said:

tpfkar said:

SeanT said:

My analogy is near-perfect, as I am sure Richard Nabavi would agree.

It also explains why Remainers are so bitter. They never wanted to have kids. They never wanted this fucking brat, and now they have to sit in a room full of soiled nappies for three years?? And never go out again and have fun?>

Some of the nuttier ones are still hoping for a dangerous illegal abortion at the last minute, no matter the risk to the mother, or they hope to smother the baby in the crib.

Not quite there Sean. Having a baby is an additional blessing / burden - but for the unconsolable Remainers, it's more about having something they valued forcibly taken away by others. I'm not sure you get that across in the extra responsibility of an unprepared parent - maybe the better analogy is having your child taken into care against your wishes, even though your relationship had many flaws?

No, my analogy is flawless. The Remainers are angry because their freedom of movement has been taken away, and their identity as europolitan singletons, now they've become a boring parent, plus they can't go clubbing any more.

And then it turns out that the real father is Nigel Farage who continues to swan around the world producing bastards.

Animal_pb

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

williamglenn said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

That's the spirit Max! What will actually happen is that a lot of companies that do a lot of work in the Single Market will seek to ensure that they stay in the Single Market. It's not brain surgery and it was pretty well signalled. Sorry you don't like it - but there you go.

I'm sure they will, but the reality is that a lot of the work just won't get done at all, which is lose/lose rather than your presentation of lose/win for the UK/EU. The reality is that in a trade war neither side wins, @rcs1000 had a handy chart about falling trade in the great depression.

The downside is greater for us than them. That's my only point.

Again, you don't know. No one can know. Brexit is too big, complex, dynamic for that.

I've made the analogy a hundred times but I'll do it again: Brexit is like having a baby. We're about to have our first baby. And you're trying to predict whether we will be happier one, three and ten years after we've had that first child, and you're doing it by focusing on the inevitable restrictions on our ability to go to restaurants, once we become a parent.

I kind of understand the narrowness and myopia, it's because you're a businessman. But it is still a narrow, myopic vision.

The analogy gets the frenzied emotions right, and explains why 'calling your baby ugly' provokes such a strong reaction.

My analogy is near-perfect, as I am sure Richard Nabavi would agree.

It also explains why Remainers are so bitter. They never wanted to have kids. They never wanted this fucking brat, and now they have to sit in a room full of soiled nappies for three years?? And never go out again and have fun?>

Some of the nuttier ones are still hoping for a dangerous illegal abortion at the last minute, no matter the risk to the mother, or they hope to smother the baby in the crib.

So we're all going to get covered in shit the next two years, but it might be worth it when Liberty cracks her first smile?

Without wishing to unnecessarily prolong an extended simile, *everything* is worth it when your baby smiles for the first time.

Sean is right; this is too heavily dependent on sentiment to be entirely rational about.

MaxPB

SeanT said:

FrankBooth said:

SeanT - You have the thorny issue of school funding. London schools have been better funded. I'm not sure the reasons for this are entirely clear. Some say it is due to local authorities in London being more ready to put money in. But I think the difference is rather substantial. It could at least be mentioned whenever people discuss the difference in attainment in London compared to Brexitland rather than just going on about the London Challenge and 'aspiration'.

Oh I agree. The success of London schools is a complex phenomenon - demographics, money, migration, competition, the attraction of the city to the best teachers, etc etc etc. There should be a prize for the first academic to work it all out - and how it can be replicated.

Actually grammar school is not a bad way of doing it, if they are flexible and put in the right place. The poorest and worst performing boroughs should get them, and they should be restricted to those areas, maybe?

Tricky.

OK now I have to work

Doesn't that just cause local house prices to rise and result in massive gentrification?

megalomaniacs4u

Libdems trying hard in Chipping Norton part of the Witney constituency, had daily leaflets/flyers & other annoyances. Including today via post a fake news paper full of propaganda & dodgy graphs looking very like a local paper.

IanB2

SeanT said:

FPT for FF33


"It's about markets. If your market is Europe, which is almost synonymous with the EU, you are in the market you serve if you are based in the EU and not if you are based in the Brexited UK. If you don't need to be in the market to serve it, you can be anywhere - China, USA, Mexico. The UK loses out either way."

The problem with all these negative analyses of post-Brexit Britain, and why they are already proving to be overly pessimistic, is that they presume we are just a passive observer. A nation to which things are done. The submissive in a BDSM relationship with Europe, the world, and reality.

They ignore the possibility - indeed likelihood - that post-Brexit Britain will DO STUFF to make the nation more attractive to investment, better for banks, extra-welcoming to smarter migrants, and so forth, to counteract the negatives of Brexit.

The gloomier Remainers also refuse the possibility that Britain will simply benefit as a country from governing itself: we won't have anyone else to blame any more.

Brexit will being major difficulties. But also major opportunities

How can a negative analysis of POST BREXIT Britain be ALREADY proved pessimistic when Brexit is still years away!?

MTimT

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

I guess that explains why the metropolitan wealthy with second homes abroad are so furious that the peasants voted for Brexit.

Peasants is such an inaccurate term. I prefer the term 'thick uneducated plebs'

TSE morphing into Mr Meeks. Someone call a doctor before it's too late.

Well it is either that or Leavers are traitors.

Surprisingly, I don't agree that the choice is between those two descriptions.

If I get the time, I shall publish a thread comparing Leavers to The Confederates States, and I'm trying to work out who the British Lincoln is.

I kinda know who shall be Ulysses S Grant is though

Huh? So you think the Remainers will win this yet by razing Brexitland to the ground? Now there is one bitter remainer. Perhaps I have been too unkind to Mr Meeks in comparing you to him.

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

On-topic: no, she doesn't.

It's a Parliamentary democracy, and one that must've had almost a dozen PMs come into office between, rather than at, elections. People 'taunting' May are either ignorant of the system by which we are governed or who would hurl another empty insult if she had won an election.

Dromedary

Betfair midprices:

Clinton 1.375
Sanders 150
Biden 170
Kaine 695

Trump 3.975
Ryan 385
Pence 740

Implied probability of neither Clinton nor Trump, based on their midprices: 2.1%.

felix

Pulpstar said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

Well my mortgage and day to day expenses are still in £ sterling, and I bought my new camera pre-brexit

Presumably you only buy full UK sourced products since Brexit.

TheScreamingEagles

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

I guess that explains why the metropolitan wealthy with second homes abroad are so furious that the peasants voted for Brexit.

Peasants is such an inaccurate term. I prefer the term 'thick uneducated plebs'

TSE morphing into Mr Meeks. Someone call a doctor before it's too late.

Well it is either that or Leavers are traitors.

Surprisingly, I don't agree that the choice is between those two descriptions.

If I get the time, I shall publish a thread comparing Leavers to The Confederates States, and I'm trying to work out who the British Lincoln is.

I kinda know who shall be Ulysses S Grant is though

Huh? So you think the Remainers will win this yet by razing Brexitland to the ground? Now there is one bitter remainer. Perhaps I have been too unkind to Mr Meeks in comparing you to him.

I was thinking more about Reconstruction of the areas badly affected by a bad Brexit deal, which ultimately sees the Republicans/Remainers lose that area for a century.

MTimT

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

I guess that explains why the metropolitan wealthy with second homes abroad are so furious that the peasants voted for Brexit.

Peasants is such an inaccurate term. I prefer the term 'thick uneducated plebs'

TSE morphing into Mr Meeks. Someone call a doctor before it's too late.

Well it is either that or Leavers are traitors.

Surprisingly, I don't agree that the choice is between those two descriptions.

If I get the time, I shall publish a thread comparing Leavers to The Confederates States, and I'm trying to work out who the British Lincoln is.

I kinda know who shall be Ulysses S Grant is though

Lincoln is Boris

I have Boris down as Grant.

How is Boris Grant if the Leavers are Confederates? Or do you have him switching sides?

Philip_Thompson

felix said:

Pulpstar said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

Well my mortgage and day to day expenses are still in £ sterling, and I bought my new camera pre-brexit

Presumably you only buy full UK sourced products since Brexit.

CPI has gone up by 0.1% and is still TOO LOW. When it reaches 2% how about we have this conversation?

felix

TGOHF said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

I guess that explains why the metropolitan wealthy with second homes abroad are so furious that the peasants voted for Brexit.

Dunno since I am neither one myself nor know any. Apart from that - great post!

SouthamObserver

@SeanT - We had our first child when we were ready and had a good idea of what the downsides were before we had him - less sleep, less freedom - we also knew that he was going to be born healthy and so there were no surprises. On top of that, we knew that we had a strong support structure of relatives and friends around us, all of who had nothing but love and goodwill in their hearts. Furthermore, we had seen friends have babies and we had been brought up ourselves. In short, we were prepared, though obviously we were nervous. So I don't buy the baby analogy!

Our business will take very little if any hit long-term hit from Brexit and in the short-term we have actually seen our profits exceed forecast in Q1 - largely because we bill in dollars and Euros, not pounds. When the time comes, we will open our office in the rEU, do our single market business from there and nothing much will change. All it will mean is that jobs we would have created in the UK, the investments we would have made and the taxes we would have paid will all be created, made and paid elsewhere in Europe. We're small and completely insignificant, but if many other businesses that do a lot of single market work follow our lead it will have an effect. That's just a simple fact of life.

You are right that there will be opportunities in Brexit. If we wanted, we could make the City a deregulated, offshore centre that does stuff and handles the kind of work that other big financial centres will not touch. That's a great opportunity - but it is one hell of a risk. I suspect we'll see something like that. We will also be freer to compete with Europe on things like pay and work conditions. If we pay our people less and give them fewer rights, that may overcome some of the investment obstacles that Brexit will create. I suspect we'll see some of that too. Being a wishy-washy lefty, though, I don't see much joy in either prospect.

British companies have been free to trade with the world for decades. We could have invested in R&D, we could have focused on quality, we could have invested time and effort in building relationships. But, by and large, we haven't. They have done so in other parts of Europe, though. I just don't see how Brexit will change the narrow focus we have on controlling costs and returning money to shareholders as often as possible. It seems to me that many of the best companies we have are the most likely to be most affected by leaving the single market, and so the most likely to move - at least in part - when we are no longer within it.

Going back to the parent thing. I have three kids. They were already facing a tough fight to build the kind of standard of living that we (you, me and plenty of others on here) have enjoyed. I think Brexit makes it even tougher. I hope to God I am wrong.

Philip_Thompson

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

I guess that explains why the metropolitan wealthy with second homes abroad are so furious that the peasants voted for Brexit.

Peasants is such an inaccurate term. I prefer the term 'thick uneducated plebs'

TSE morphing into Mr Meeks. Someone call a doctor before it's too late.

Well it is either that or Leavers are traitors.

Surprisingly, I don't agree that the choice is between those two descriptions.

If I get the time, I shall publish a thread comparing Leavers to The Confederates States, and I'm trying to work out who the British Lincoln is.

I kinda know who shall be Ulysses S Grant is though

Lincoln is Boris

I have Boris down as Grant.

How is Boris Grant if the Leavers are Confederates? Or do you have him switching sides?

The Leavers won. They are the USA, the Remainers are Confederates.

MTimT

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

I guess that explains why the metropolitan wealthy with second homes abroad are so furious that the peasants voted for Brexit.

Peasants is such an inaccurate term. I prefer the term 'thick uneducated plebs'

TSE morphing into Mr Meeks. Someone call a doctor before it's too late.

Well it is either that or Leavers are traitors.

Surprisingly, I don't agree that the choice is between those two descriptions.

If I get the time, I shall publish a thread comparing Leavers to The Confederates States, and I'm trying to work out who the British Lincoln is.

I kinda know who shall be Ulysses S Grant is though

Huh? So you think the Remainers will win this yet by razing Brexitland to the ground? Now there is one bitter remainer. Perhaps I have been too unkind to Mr Meeks in comparing you to him.

I was thinking more about Reconstruction of the areas badly affected by a bad Brexit deal, which ultimately sees the Republicans/Remainers lose that area for a century.

Hmm. So a split in the Conservative Party? Don't quite see where you are going with this, but intrigued.

SouthamObserver

SeanT said:

FrankBooth said:

SeanT - You have the thorny issue of school funding. London schools have been better funded. I'm not sure the reasons for this are entirely clear. Some say it is due to local authorities in London being more ready to put money in. But I think the difference is rather substantial. It could at least be mentioned whenever people discuss the difference in attainment in London compared to Brexitland rather than just going on about the London Challenge and 'aspiration'.

Oh I agree. The success of London schools is a complex phenomenon - demographics, money, migration, competition, the attraction of the city to the best teachers, etc etc etc. There should be a prize for the first academic to work it all out - and how it can be replicated.

Actually grammar school is not a bad way of doing it, if they are flexible and put in the right place. The poorest and worst performing boroughs should get them, and they should be restricted to those areas, maybe?

Tricky.

OK now I have to work

London schools were by and large appalling in the mid-1990s. Now they are clearly the best in the country. Something has happened.

felix

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Indeed, usurper May needs to be reminded she's never been elected as PM, and she's using Cameron's majority, so stick to the manifesto, like things on grammar schools.

In what way is May a 'usurper'?

Cameron stood down - after promising not to.

Osborne didn't even put his name forward - at least he gets marks for self awareness.

Bitter posh boys......

Significant departures from the manifesto that helped the Tories win a majority for the first time in nearly a quarter of a century.

Indeed. She should be fulfilling the current Tory mandate, not going beyond it on some fool's errand with an ill conceived policy on grammar schools, which, IMO, will damage the case for selective education in the long term.

At the moment I am touring school in north London, for my older daughter, who goes to secondary next September.

The quality of schools is quite astonishing. I went to one, Wren Academy ("outstanding" according to Ofsted). Compared to my rattly old comp, it was like a small, rich university. It has its own theatre. A huge computer complex. School trips go around the world, all year. The kids were all enthusiastic, articulate, well behaved. It's Church of England - but full of all races and creeds.

The one good thing Labour did was pump money into education, and the Coalition and the Tories continued that, and the one place it's REALLY worked is London.

What May's government should be doing is working out how to translate the success of London schools to the rest of the UK

Henrietta Barnett in Hampstead is probably the best non-fee paying girl's school in the country. Consider it. If you're up for paying fees then consider St Paul's and Habs for girls in Hertfordshire. I got into the boy's school for the latter but my parents couldn't afford the fees.

I went to Henrietta Barnett. It's a great school BUT it has one huge problem. It's gone from 30% ethnic minority to 80% in ten years - and rising fast. In a couple more years the school will be entirely non-white.

It's now basically a free private school for wealthy Asian parents - mainly Indian - willing to tutor their girls til they faint.

Everyone knows this is a massive issue for Henrietta Barnett, but no one is willing to talk about it.

I want my daughter to go to a school that is recognisably British: a good mix of kids, not a monocultural hothouse.

Says every parent who wonders if their child will pass the entry test....

TheScreamingEagles

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

I guess that explains why the metropolitan wealthy with second homes abroad are so furious that the peasants voted for Brexit.

Peasants is such an inaccurate term. I prefer the term 'thick uneducated plebs'

TSE morphing into Mr Meeks. Someone call a doctor before it's too late.

Well it is either that or Leavers are traitors.

Surprisingly, I don't agree that the choice is between those two descriptions.

If I get the time, I shall publish a thread comparing Leavers to The Confederates States, and I'm trying to work out who the British Lincoln is.

I kinda know who shall be Ulysses S Grant is though

Lincoln is Boris

I have Boris down as Grant.

How is Boris Grant if the Leavers are Confederates? Or do you have him switching sides?

Yes, he did say last year we should vote to Leave to get a better deal from the EU so we can stay in the EU.

IanB2

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Indeed, usurper May needs to be reminded she's never been elected as PM, and she's using Cameron's majority, so stick to the manifesto, like things on grammar schools.

In what way is May a 'usurper'?

Cameron stood down - after promising not to.

Osborne didn't even put his name forward - at least he gets marks for self awareness.

Bitter posh boys......

Significant departures from the manifesto that helped the Tories win a majority for the first time in nearly a quarter of a century.

Indeed. She should be fulfilling the current Tory mandate, not going beyond it on some fool's errand with an ill conceived policy on grammar schools, which, IMO, will damage the case for selective education in the long term.

At the moment I am touring school in north London, for my older daughter, who goes to secondary next September.

The quality of schools is quite astonishing. I went to one, Wren Academy ("outstanding" according to Ofsted). Compared to my rattly old comp, it was like a small, rich university. It has its own theatre. A huge computer complex. School trips go around the world, all year. The kids were all enthusiastic, articulate, well behaved. It's Church of England - but full of all races and creeds.

The one good thing Labour did was pump money into education, and the Coalition and the Tories continued that, and the one place it's REALLY worked is London.

What May's government should be doing is working out how to translate the success of London schools to the rest of the UK

Henrietta Barnett in Hampstead is probably the best non-fee paying girl's school in the country. Consider it. If you're up for paying fees then consider St Paul's and Habs for girls in Hertfordshire. I got into the boy's school for the latter but my parents couldn't afford the fees.

I went to Henrietta Barnett. It's a great school BUT it has one huge problem. It's gone from 30% ethnic minority to 80% in ten years - and rising fast. In a couple more years the school will be entirely non-white.

It's now basically a free private school for wealthy Asian parents - mainly Indian - willing to tutor their girls til they faint.

Everyone knows this is a massive issue for Henrietta Barnett, but no one is willing to talk about it.

I want my daughter to go to a school that is recognisably British: a good mix of kids, not a monocultural hothouse.

The real reason why the performance of London schools has increased by far more than the average is in your post, if you care to look for it.

Sean_F

CarlottaVance said:

justin124 said:

I am not persuaded that Witney is so important for May. Callaghan succeeded Wilson in April 1976 , and a few months later Labour suffered disastrous by election results at Workington and Walsall North. Similarly the Tories lost Ribble Valley not long after Major became PM.Neither Callaghan nor Major were particularly undermined by those setbacks.

A little expectations framing going on by OGH?

Con hold with reduced majority = 'catastrophe'

Con loss - MAY MUST RESIGN!!!

Witney clearly has a huge personal vote for Cameron - it would be odd if the Con vote share didn't fall...

TBH, I'd expect a very big fall in the Conservative majority. The PM's personal vote will have gone, and we're now in mid-term, so people use by-elections as a chance to kick the government. I'd expect the Conservatives' vote share to be in the region of 40-45~%.

TheScreamingEagles

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

felix said:

I see the £ has resumed it's slide today as Brexit continues to have it's long, slow effect. Of course as Harold Wilson used to tell us ' the £ in your pocket won't be affected'. I'd forgotten just how loved he was as one of the Tories greatest ever Prime Ministers

I guess that explains why the metropolitan wealthy with second homes abroad are so furious that the peasants voted for Brexit.

Peasants is such an inaccurate term. I prefer the term 'thick uneducated plebs'

TSE morphing into Mr Meeks. Someone call a doctor before it's too late.

Well it is either that or Leavers are traitors.

Surprisingly, I don't agree that the choice is between those two descriptions.

If I get the time, I shall publish a thread comparing Leavers to The Confederates States, and I'm trying to work out who the British Lincoln is.

I kinda know who shall be Ulysses S Grant is though

Huh? So you think the Remainers will win this yet by razing Brexitland to the ground? Now there is one bitter remainer. Perhaps I have been too unkind to Mr Meeks in comparing you to him.

I was thinking more about Reconstruction of the areas badly affected by a bad Brexit deal, which ultimately sees the Republicans/Remainers lose that area for a century.

Hmm. So a split in the Conservative Party? Don't quite see where you are going with this, but intrigued.

It's a winning the war/losing the peace scenario, especially when you remember the Tories have split in the past over a trade deal.