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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Clive Lewis can be Labour’s future if he plays his cards ri

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  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Iain Dale on Sky. He reckons that this was the dullest conference speech he has heard in 35 years of attendance.

    It was so dull to my ears that I turned Hammond off after 5 mins.

    Hammond is May's weakest link IMHO - perhaps she is going for the Gordon Brown approach of picking crap CoTE's to make the PM look better.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    "Trump repeatedly made lewd comments about a camerawoman he said had a nice rear, comparing her his daughter Ivanka" https://t.co/hx3XDMCejS

    donald trump wants to sleep with his daughter
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058

    On a different subject, this is interesting on generational wealth inequality:

    http://www.hl.co.uk/news/2016/10/3/this-is-the-real-cause-of-generational-wealth-inequality-in-the-uk

    Not about housing, the author claims.

    Also, note how much better off (in net income terms after housing costs) people born in the 1970s and 1980s are compared with those born earlier, at equivalent points in their lives.

    The housing cost bit hits when interest rates head back north I think...

    The pension angle is an interesting one though, the gov'ts proposed 3/4 is a start - though the Australian plan does indeed look better.

    Perhaps best to boil the frog up to 10/10 over the long term, as going there immediately could cause wage deflation ?
    (My firm does 7.5/7.5 - which would be a good point to aim for say by 2025/30 nationally)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    FF43 said:

    TGOHF said:



    Which British businesses will sign up and move accross the channel to enjoy France's employment laws ?

    Lol.

    It's about markets. If your market is Europe, which is almost synonymous with the EU, you are in the market you serve if you are based in the EU and not if you are based in the Brexited UK. If you don't need to be in the market to serve it, you can be anywhere - China, USA, Mexico. The UK loses out either way.
    It must make you wonder why Apple don't make their ipads in Paris for the French market then ?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,908

    Iain Dale on Sky. He reckons that this was the dullest conference speech he has heard in 35 years of attendance.

    It was so dull to my ears that I turned Hammond off after 5 mins.

    Nothing wrong with dull. Dull is what you want in a chancellor.
    Yes, not exciting, but we've had enough excitement for one year.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''donald trump wants to sleep with his daughter.''

    You are getting a bit obsessed now.

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,908

    justin124 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:



    There are three issues with that. The first is that a fall in the value of the pound increases the cost of components. The effect you refer to only applies to the value add in Britain, not the cost of the car, whereas the import duty is on the whole cost of the car. Secondly the import duty is a real and additional fixed cost to car manufacturers on top of the others. Manufacturing in Brtain only computes out if it is that much cheaper a place to build cars in than Slovakia etc. Thirdly, exchange rates can go up as well as down. For car manufacturers looking to sell the output of a British made car in the EU, currency volatility is an additional risk.

    There are point of origin rules, if Nissan Sunderland imports an engine from France and then the car is shipped back to France the engine has a zero tariff value since its point of origin was in the EU.

    It's all academic since we're going to have a continuation of free goods trade with the EU regardless of our position on immigration. They have too much to lose, if German manufacturing jobs are lost to appease EU sensibilities on free movement then the federal election will be very, very interesting. The current grand coalition might not go above 50% and they'd need to send for the greens, or in a massive ignominy AfD if the numbers are still unfavourable.
    The FPD would get the first call, assuming they make the 5% barrier, which they would were the election today.
    Would they say yes though? They got Lib Dem'd last time they went into a coalition with Mrs Merkel. They may choose another cycle of rebuilding before heading back into government. The numbers are also less likely to work with the FDP than the greens as well, especially if the grand coalition scores less than 50% overall and barely makes the majority.
    They would certainly say yes. There is a long history of cooperation between the CDU/CSU and the FDP in Germany. They are natural coalition partners. Their low popularity in recent years has been of their own making rather than a consequence of being "Lib Dem'd".
    But for many years they were also in coalition with Willy Brandt and Helmut Schmidt.
    True, but that's a while back now. Certainly since the 1980s they been seen as closer to the right than the left of the political spectrum in Germany. Socially liberal, yes, but also very business-friendly.
    They had a very well regarded Foreign Minister, Genscher, for many years.
  • Never have I been more glad to be a Muslim

    Meat produced from British pigs has been shown to be infected with a livestock strain of MRSA, the Guardian can reveal, raising concerns that the UK is on the brink of another food scandal.

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/03/revealed-mrsa-variant-found-in-british-pork-at-asda-and-sainsburys?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,751
    PlatoSaid said:

    One for @DavidL

    Court News
    Defence: 'If I saw someone brandishing a hatchet, I'd be scared'
    Pros: 'How long have you been counsel? You should be desensitised by now'

    The Prosecution is of course entirely correct. I once had a negotiation which was supposed to stop a particularly acrimonious proof where the other party threatened to knock my head off, or words to that effect. We then left the library, went down the corridor and into the Sheriff's Chambers to advise him that the negotiation had been unsuccessful.

    "Yes," he said, somewhat drily, "I heard."



    I was given this link to top legal tips on one of my professional sites today: https://www.facebook.com/funlegaltips/?utm_source=Scottish+Legal+News&utm_campaign=5692123c14-SLN_26_07_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_07336e1dbf-5692123c14-66760013

    Some of them are excellent.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited October 2016

    Never have I been more glad to be a Muslim

    Meat produced from British pigs has been shown to be infected with a livestock strain of MRSA, the Guardian can reveal, raising concerns that the UK is on the brink of another food scandal.

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/03/revealed-mrsa-variant-found-in-british-pork-at-asda-and-sainsburys?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    "The superbug, like other foodborne germs, is killed by thorough cooking"

    Given that eating pork "medium rare" isn't common I wouldn't reach for the shotguns quite yet.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Iain Dale on Sky. He reckons that this was the dullest conference speech he has heard in 35 years of attendance.

    It was so dull to my ears that I turned Hammond off after 5 mins.

    Nothing wrong with dull. Dull is what you want in a chancellor.
    Yes, not exciting, but we've had enough excitement for one year.
    My wife is an anaesthetist (anesthesiologist in American). Her mantra is 'boring is good'.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,908
    weejonnie said:

    If Trump wins the angstfest from the Slebs is going to make Brexit look like a minor disagreement:

    http://graphics.latimes.com/celebrity-presidential-endorsements/

    I wonder whether the Slebs pay their taxes at the same rate as the normal man in the street.
    Probably more than Trump.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,379
    edited October 2016

    justin124 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    There are point of origin rules, if Nissan Sunderland imports an engine from France and then the car is shipped back to France the engine has a zero tariff value since its point of origin was in the EU.

    It's all academic since we're going to have a continuation of free goods trade with the EU regardless of our position on immigration. They have too much to lose, if German manufacturing jobs are lost to appease EU sensibilities on free movement then the federal election will be very, very interesting. The current grand coalition might not go above 50% and they'd need to send for the greens, or in a massive ignominy AfD if the numbers are still unfavourable.

    The FPD would get the first call, assuming they make the 5% barrier, which they would were the election today.
    Would they say yes though? They got Lib Dem'd last time they went into a coalition with Mrs Merkel. They may choose another cycle of rebuilding before heading back into government. The numbers are also less likely to work with the FDP than the greens as well, especially if the grand coalition scores less than 50% overall and barely makes the majority.
    They would certainly say yes. There is a long history of cooperation between the CDU/CSU and the FDP in Germany. They are natural coalition partners. Their low popularity in recent years has been of their own making rather than a consequence of being "Lib Dem'd".
    But for many years they were also in coalition with Willy Brandt and Helmut Schmidt.
    True, but that's a while back now. Certainly since the 1980s they been seen as closer to the right than the left of the political spectrum in Germany. Socially liberal, yes, but also very business-friendly.
    They had a very well regarded Foreign Minister, Genscher, for many years.
    For some reason it's always been traditional for the smaller coalition partner to provide the Foreign Minister. That used to generally be the FDP, until they were squeezed to the right by the rise of the Greens and subsequently squeezed almost out of existence by internal troubles.
  • TGOHF said:

    Iain Dale on Sky. He reckons that this was the dullest conference speech he has heard in 35 years of attendance.

    It was so dull to my ears that I turned Hammond off after 5 mins.

    Hammond is May's weakest link IMHO - perhaps she is going for the Gordon Brown approach of picking crap CoTE's to make the PM look better.
    Gordon Brown was a very crap CoTE but I thought he was picked as he was a rival not to make Blair look better.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Iain Dale on Sky. He reckons that this was the dullest conference speech he has heard in 35 years of attendance.

    It was so dull to my ears that I turned Hammond off after 5 mins.

    Hammond is May's weakest link IMHO - perhaps she is going for the Gordon Brown approach of picking crap CoTE's to make the PM look better.
    Gordon Brown was a very crap CoTE but I thought he was picked as he was a rival not to make Blair look better.
    I meant when Gordo picked "out by £150B" Darling ..
  • NEW THREAD

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,699



    Yep. You fight the next election on Cameron's honesty. I'm sure the public will understand. It's not dissimilar to a twitter correspondent who believed that the best counter to the Tories bringing up Corbyn's support of the IRA and Hamas was to counter with UK arms sales to Saudi, as if national security was the ground Labour should be fighting on.

    If the next GE is fought in 2020, the consequences of Brexit will be front and centre. If things have gone badly, the Tories will get the blame and may well lose their overall majority. If they haven't, they will get a three figure majority.

    That to an extent depends on Labour. if things go well post-Brexit then yes, it'll be a big Tory majority whatever Labour does. On the other hand, if they go badly, it's still a choice between Con and Lab and Corbyn is so hopelessly toxic that the Tories would still get back off the back of that fear, albeit with no public enthusiasm and the potential for a heavy defeat if Labour does then sort itself out. Of course, if Labour sorts itself out pre-2020 then a Labour win would be a genuine possibility but that's looking less and less likely.

    One thing that will work to the Tories' advantage is that Brexit was explicitly mandated by the British public. There will no doubt be some scope for blame in terms of negotiating ability and policy but if it's not a success there's still the implicit get-out of 'we were doing what you told us to'. For the charge to stick, Labour would have to convince that they'd have done better.

    Not sure it does work like that. There are plenty of prominent Brexiteers in the government who will can be blamed for fibbing if things do go wrong. Labour won't make many if any gains on the back of a bad Brexit if Corbyn is still in charge; but the LDs have a chance, I think, to make gains.

    That is true. But then suppose the Tories end up ten short of a majority and the Lib Dems have 25 seats. What do they do? There are only three choices: keep May in office, install Corbyn, vote against everyone and force a new election.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited October 2016


    That to an extent depends on Labour. if things go well post-Brexit then yes, it'll be a big Tory majority whatever Labour does. On the other hand, if they go badly, it's still a choice between Con and Lab and Corbyn is so hopelessly toxic that the Tories would still get back off the back of that fear, albeit with no public enthusiasm and the potential for a heavy defeat if Labour does then sort itself out. Of course, if Labour sorts itself out pre-2020 then a Labour win would be a genuine possibility but that's looking less and less likely.

    One thing that will work to the Tories' advantage is that Brexit was explicitly mandated by the British public. There will no doubt be some scope for blame in terms of negotiating ability and policy but if it's not a success there's still the implicit get-out of 'we were doing what you told us to'. For the charge to stick, Labour would have to convince that they'd have done better.

    Not sure it does work like that. There are plenty of prominent Brexiteers in the government who will can be blamed for fibbing if things do go wrong. Labour won't make many if any gains on the back of a bad Brexit if Corbyn is still in charge; but the LDs have a chance, I think, to make gains.

    There wont be by the next election if it all goes sour ;) Expect to see the three wise monkeys on the dole queue in 2019 if we get a duff deal to clear the decks for the election campaign. No one who could even be a little bit blamed will be let near office or even a TV camera for most of that year imo ;)
  • Iain Dale on Sky. He reckons that this was the dullest conference speech he has heard in 35 years of attendance.

    It was so dull to my ears that I turned Hammond off after 5 mins.

    Nothing wrong with dull. Dull is what you want in a chancellor.
    I lean towards agreeing with you. Just a bit worried that he has no drive to really get the right things done.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    DavidL said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    One for @DavidL

    Court News
    Defence: 'If I saw someone brandishing a hatchet, I'd be scared'
    Pros: 'How long have you been counsel? You should be desensitised by now'

    The Prosecution is of course entirely correct. I once had a negotiation which was supposed to stop a particularly acrimonious proof where the other party threatened to knock my head off, or words to that effect. We then left the library, went down the corridor and into the Sheriff's Chambers to advise him that the negotiation had been unsuccessful.

    "Yes," he said, somewhat drily, "I heard."



    I was given this link to top legal tips on one of my professional sites today: https://www.facebook.com/funlegaltips/?utm_source=Scottish+Legal+News&utm_campaign=5692123c14-SLN_26_07_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_07336e1dbf-5692123c14-66760013

    Some of them are excellent.
    :smiley:
This discussion has been closed.