I think everyone agrees that declaring Article 50 immediately would have been foolish.
Not necessarily, but I have no doubt that if we had the Remainers currently moaning that we are going too slow would be moaning that we are going too fast.
If there is a hard Brexit, remainers will still be able to campaign for a radically different relationship with Europe in the future. They can vote, contribute or canvass for the lib dems. Hell, this is a democracy, its never over. Keep the faith boys and girls. Dust yourself off and get back into the game. Treat triumph and defeat as two imposters and all that.
But that is not enough for our remainer friends. They want what they want. And they want it NOW.
I'm with you, Morris. I don't believe that Mrs May has the guts, the willpower, and the negotiating skills to take Britain out of the EU in a full Brexit. She has promised that negotiations will start in earnest in January 2017, why wait 'til then? The clue is that she has no idea what to do after article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is proclaimed.
I am sure Mrs May has many ideas what to do but she has yet to decide which is feasible and, more importantly, which is acceptable to the British public.
I am a committed Brexiteer but my worry is that those wanting a hard Brexit will find that they are a considerable minority in the public. Theresa May will be aware of this and I am confident she will negotiate a way through that will receive the approval of the majority of the public and it may well not be a hard exit
The one certainty in this is that hard Brexiters will label the agreed terms "soft" and the soft Brexiters will label them "hard". I'd judge that many Brexiters won't give a monkey's about the single market terms so long as we control immigration; that applies in spades to (ex) Labour voters. Pass the popcorn.
@Alanbrooke I pointed out in advance of the vote that EEA Leavers were merely useful idiots for the autarks. Don't shoot the messenger.
I actually think it's much simpler than that Alistair. The Cameron\Blair Liberal agenda which you support was rejected by the electorate and its proponents cant come to terms with their views being shot down in flames.
I have several friends like you who just cant accept Remain lost even though they live in the most out region in the country. But they commute to London to work and have no feel for what life outside london corporate land is like.
The fact remains those who dont benefit from the 90s/ 00s consesnus outnumber those who do. It's time for out parties to go back to the drawing board and reimagine society.
Unquestionably Britain will survive outside the EU. Question is, will it prosper as it could. There are some worrying below the radar issues .... the Erasmus project for one.
And Cameron’s going to be remembered as as much of a “loser PM” as Lord North or Antony Eden.
We seem to be getting some revisionism about the influence of immigration on the referendum result. A couple of tweets from Matthew Goodwin on this are worth noting:
We seem to be getting some revisionism about the influence of immigration on the referendum result
Pincipally from yourself
Just embarrassing statistical illiteracy. 90% of people who think immigration bad supported leave is NOT equivalent to 90% of people who supported leave think immigration bad. The first statement would be satisfied if there were exactly 10 opponents of immigration in the entire country, and 9 of them voted leave. It is statistically meaningless.
Never mind Mr Goodwin, whoever he is, look at the Ashcroft polling. Which I can't be bothered to find again, so try google.
''The fact remains those who dont benefit from the 90s/ 00s consesnus outnumber those who do. It's time for out parties to go back to the drawing board and reimagine society. ''
And that is why Clinton will lose to Trump in my view, no matter how many liberal news outlets say she has won. This isn;t working for too many.
Unquestionably Britain will survive outside the EU. Question is, will it prosper as it could. There are some worrying below the radar issues .... the Erasmus project for one.
.
ERASMUS involves 33 countries, so five more than the current EU membership.
''The fact remains those who dont benefit from the 90s/ 00s consesnus outnumber those who do. It's time for out parties to go back to the drawing board and reimagine society. ''
And that is why Clinton will lose to Trump in my view, no matter how many liberal news outlets say she has won. This isn;t working for too many.
If there is a hard Brexit, remainers will still be able to campaign for a radically different relationship with Europe in the future. They can vote, contribute or canvass for the lib dems. Hell, this is a democracy, its never over. Keep the faith boys and girls. Dust yourself off and get back into the game. Treat triumph and defeat as two imposters and all that.
But that is not enough for our remainer friends. They want what they want. And they want it NOW.
Quite. It took eurosceptics 40 years to get their referendum. It took the Scots more than half a century.
Remainers can't be bothered with all that hard democratic work. Just ignore the result. Get the courts to overturn it. Get the SNP to veto it. Who cares. Fuck the people. They're stupid and racist. IGNORE.
Rather loathsome, really.
It is loathsome, and I feel foolish for not seeing it coming.
In fairness to Remainers, they recognise that this is really their only shot. Once Britain is properly out of the EU it's difficult to conceive of a set of circumstances where we'd vote to go back in - second time round we eurosceptics would no longer have the handicap of being the 'change' option.
The referendum was won off the back of whipping up fears about uncontrolled immigration. Disgraceful as that strategy was, any version of Brexit that does not address that will be failing to respect the referendum outcome.
So we can forget EEA Brexit. We are heading for a form of Brexit that will be going firm to hard. In practice I'm doubtful whether meaningful agreement will be reached in the time available on anything that goes much beyond basic functions. There is probably too much incoherence, lack of agreed strategy and incompetence on both sides of the negotiation to get a good result.
Dont you mean the referendum was lost off the back of whipping up irrational fears of penury and revenge by vindictive neighbours ?
If Remain had won, that would be a legitimate grievance, but as Leave did win it is their claims, promises and lies that are rightly in the spotlight.
ah right so the thicky voters were duped ?
I think youll find there was a wide spectrum of reasons why people voted out, it's one of the reasons Remainers are struggling to pinpont "the reason". Fact is there isnt one, there are many.
There were multiple motivations to vote either Leave or Remain. No single reason on either side.
My point is that Remain has to deliver, and so far it has delivered nothing, not even Article 50.
Now you appear to think Remain won.
You have to let go emotionally doc.
I did correct it in the edit. My excuse is my focus on Leicester staying in Europe tonight!
After decades of sane government being undermined by Eurofanatics surely you didn't think anything would change just because the boot's on the other foot?
You can't magic away our geographic position and the complexities of our interdependent relationship with the continent by winning a vote.
After decades of sane government being undermined by Eurofanatics surely you didn't think anything would change just because the boot's on the other foot?
You can't magic away our geographic position and the complexities of our interdependent relationship with the continent by winning a vote.
Evidently you and I differ on the definitions of 'sane government' and 'Eurofanatic'.
After decades of sane government being undermined by Eurofanatics surely you didn't think anything would change just because the boot's on the other foot?
You can't magic away our geographic position and the complexities of our interdependent relationship with the continent by winning a vote.
Evidently you and I differ on the definitions of 'sane government' and 'Eurofanatic'.
Think of John Major and Ken Clarke on the one hand, and Bill Cash and Teresa Gorman on the other.
Or going forwards, Theresa May and Philip Hammond faced with Anna Soubry and Nicholas Soames.
After decades of sane government being undermined by Eurofanatics surely you didn't think anything would change just because the boot's on the other foot?
You can't magic away our geographic position and the complexities of our interdependent relationship with the continent by winning a vote.
After decades of sane government being undermined by Eurofanatics surely you didn't think anything would change just because the boot's on the other foot?
You can't magic away our geographic position and the complexities of our interdependent relationship with the continent by winning a vote.
Evidently you and I differ on the definitions of 'sane government' and 'Eurofanatic'.
Think of John Major and Ken Clarke on the one hand, and Bill Cash and Teresa Gorman on the other.
Or going forwards, Theresa May and Philip Hammond faced with Anna Soubry and Nicholas Soames.
Jolyon Maugham QC is deeply involved in the Article 50 case. His commentary on that case is surely of interest to all, including his diehard opponents. Or at least, those of his diehard opponents who don't require a safe space from the idea of Parliamentary controls over the actions of the executive.
After decades of sane government being undermined by Eurofanatics surely you didn't think anything would change just because the boot's on the other foot?
You can't magic away our geographic position and the complexities of our interdependent relationship with the continent by winning a vote.
After decades of sane government being undermined by Eurofanatics surely you didn't think anything would change just because the boot's on the other foot?
You can't magic away our geographic position and the complexities of our interdependent relationship with the continent by winning a vote.
Evidently you and I differ on the definitions of 'sane government' and 'Eurofanatic'.
Think of John Major and Ken Clarke on the one hand, and Bill Cash and Teresa Gorman on the other.
Or going forwards, Theresa May and Philip Hammond faced with Anna Soubry and Nicholas Soames.
Think of government resources being used to punish someone for using the 'wrong' set of weights and measures, or 15% interest rates being imposed in a vain attempt to maintain a currency peg.
Is this the same Nicholas Soames who hurled sweary abuse at James Cleverly for suggesting Leavers and Remainers should work together after the referendum, whatever the result?
@Alanbrooke I pointed out in advance of the vote that EEA Leavers were merely useful idiots for the autarks. Don't shoot the messenger.
I actually think it's much simpler than that Alistair. The Cameron\Blair Liberal agenda which you support was rejected by the electorate and its proponents cant come to terms with their views being shot down in flames.
I have several friends like you who just cant accept Remain lost even though they live in the most out region in the country. But they commute to London to work and have no feel for what life outside london corporate land is like.
The fact remains those who dont benefit from the 90s/ 00s consesnus outnumber those who do. It's time for out parties to go back to the drawing board and reimagine society.
"The Cameron\Blair Liberal agenda which you support was rejected by the electorate and its proponents cant come to terms with their views being shot down in flames."
Urrrrm, no.
We had a referendum on EU membership. As expected, people are now expanding that into areas outwith that. They're going to be sorely disappointed.
It's almost as though they don't like the world and want to get off. Fortunately Elon Musk might be unveiling plans in a short while that might help them:
After decades of sane government being undermined by Eurofanatics surely you didn't think anything would change just because the boot's on the other foot?
You can't magic away our geographic position and the complexities of our interdependent relationship with the continent by winning a vote.
sane government ?
I must have missed it.
You will.
I doubt I'll miss the biggest economic bust of the last 100 years ( last decade ) or invading Iraq ( decade before )
Jolyon Maugham QC is deeply involved in the Article 50 case. His commentary on that case is surely of interest to all, including his diehard opponents. Or at least, those of his diehard opponents who don't require a safe space from the idea of Parliamentary controls over the actions of the executive.
You had to wonder why Pariament consented to the treaty with Article 50 in it in the first place!
To my, admittedly, non legally trained mind, there is no reason for the Article 50 thing to go before parliament. Parliament voted to have a referendum in the contrary go give guidance to the government, no mention of guidance to parliament to have a second vote. But even if a second vote was held is there really any chance the government would loos it?
From my back of an envelope calculations,
UKIP, DUP, and Labour leave MPs all vote out.
SNP, SDLP, PC Green, UUP, Independent, and 218 Labour Remain MPs all vote in
Then there would need to be ether 28 Tory MPs votes against or 56 abstentions, or a combination.
In reality, I suspect that a lot of the 150 ish Lab MPs in areas that voted Out, to ether abstain or vote out, And I think the LD and possibly UUP, will abstain.
So using a parliamentary vote to stop Brexit, looks hopeless to me.
What it may do is put a lot of the 150 Lab MPs in leave areas in a difficult place, Vote remain and they are vulnerable to UKIP at a general election, vote Leave, and they become more vulnerable at reselection.
What does everybody else think? Have I missed something? is anybody keeping a tally of how MPs have declared they will vote if it does come to parliament?
I doubt there are any Corbynista on PB, apart from Nick P. But just in case there are, Polly Toynbee's analysis in today's Guardian of the scale of delusion thinking and electoral mountain should be shattering:
@Alanbrooke I pointed out in advance of the vote that EEA Leavers were merely useful idiots for the autarks. Don't shoot the messenger.
I actually think it's much simpler than that Alistair. The Cameron\Blair Liberal agenda which you support was rejected by the electorate and its proponents cant come to terms with their views being shot down in flames.
I have several friends like you who just cant accept Remain lost even though they live in the most out region in the country. But they commute to London to work and have no feel for what life outside london corporate land is like.
The fact remains those who dont benefit from the 90s/ 00s consesnus outnumber those who do. It's time for out parties to go back to the drawing board and reimagine society.
"The Cameron\Blair Liberal agenda which you support was rejected by the electorate and its proponents cant come to terms with their views being shot down in flames."
Urrrrm, no.
We had a referendum on EU membership. As expected, people are now expanding that into areas outwith that. They're going to be sorely disappointed.
It's almost as though they don't like the world and want to get off. Fortunately Elon Musk might be unveiling plans in a short while that might help them:
Could someone identify for me the Remainers on thread who are supposedly seeking to block Brexit?
Yes, who are these Remainer rogues and rapscallions of which we hear?
er, TSE was eagerly quoting "Jolyon" Maugham QC, earlier today - he's a diehard Remainer who wants to stop Brexit in the courts.
What is his PB name?
TSE
Err, some of us have money riding on when Article 50 is triggered and Brexit happens.
Mr Maugham is deeply involved in the legal case so it was prudent for it to be shared on PB.
Should I have posted a trigger warning? Did it violate Leaver safe space, I know some of you Leavers are such delicate flowers.
lol. Fair enough. It did sound like you were in favour of his action succeeding, but I am happy to withdraw this vile slur if it is untrue.
We're leaving the EU, the customs union, our membership of the single market, and the freedom of movement.
The people have spoken, Leave campaigned on withdrawing from the single market and the freedom of movement, the government should implement the will of the people.
Whilst I would like to see the principle of the whole Royal Prerogative tested in court, my own feeling is that long drawn out parliamentary discussion and vote won't help with getting a good Brexit deal.
Could someone identify for me the Remainers on thread who are supposedly seeking to block Brexit?
Yes, who are these Remainer rogues and rapscallions of which we hear?
er, TSE was eagerly quoting "Jolyon" Maugham QC, earlier today - he's a diehard Remainer who wants to stop Brexit in the courts.
What is his PB name?
TSE
Err, some of us have money riding on when Article 50 is triggered and Brexit happens.
Mr Maugham is deeply involved in the legal case so it was prudent for it to be shared on PB.
Should I have posted a trigger warning? Did it violate Leaver safe space, I know some of you Leavers are such delicate flowers.
lol. Fair enough. It did sound like you were in favour of his action succeeding, but I am happy to withdraw this vile slur if it is untrue.
We're leaving the EU, the customs union, our membership of the single market, and the freedom of movement.
The people have spoken, Leave campaigned on withdrawing from the single market and the freedom of movement, the government should implement the will of the people.
Whilst I would like to see the principle of whole Royal Prerogative tested in court, my own feeling is that long drawn out parliamentary discussion and vote won't help with getting a good Brexit deal.
If the people don't want a good Brexit deal it's immaterial.
Trump is now just putting together larger and later collages of the internet voodoo polls on his Twitter now. Genuinely sad.
when obama lost the first debate, he admitted he lost and moved on.
Trump is going crazy on voodo polls, calling a woman too fat in public whilst being obese homself, and teaming up with rudy 'dumped his wife during a live press conference' gulliani to say how clinton is stupid for taking her husband back.
He really hates being shown up publically. and showing his calm temperment
''I wouldn't like to be the lawyer drafting the prospectus for that capital-raising.''
True but isn;t that what the BIS driven 'shock absorber' capital is supposed to do MS Free? make investors bear losses as opposed to tax payers?
That's what it's meant to do. But but but..... Who holds these DB shares? And what would such losses do to those holders? Plus DB has to raise capital not just for itself but to send it straight out the door to the US regulators. And the latest fine is not the last they'll face.
DB has been described to me by a former regulator as "unregulatable" and German regulation has been some of the weakest in Europe for some time.
No-one wants an autumn shock to the markets. And yet Q3 is usually when such shocks happen, at least in my experience.
I doubt there are any Corbynista on PB, apart from Nick P. But just in case there are, Polly Toynbee's analysis in today's Guardian of the scale of delusion thinking and electoral mountain should be shattering:
Could someone identify for me the Remainers on thread who are supposedly seeking to block Brexit?
Y
.
What is his PB name?
TSE
.
.
We're leaving the EU, the customs union, our membership of the single market, and the freedom of movement.
The people have spoken, Leave campaigned on withdrawing from the single market and the freedom of movement, the government should implement the will of the people.
Whilst I would like to see the principle of the whole Royal Prerogative tested in court, my own feeling is that long drawn out parliamentary discussion and vote won't help with getting a good Brexit deal.
Is that what you want, or what you think will happen, or is that what you want to happen just so Brexit can be a disaster and you can say Told you so?
Serious question.
It is what I expect to happen.
1) You cannot plausibly remain a member of the customs union and have your own trade deals. Enough Leavers have said they want WTO rules rather than remain in the custom unions.
2) Enough people in the EU have said if we want good access to the single market, we need to accept the freedom of the movement. Theresa May and you know, immigration was the prime mover for Leavers, she cannot sell freedom of movement without boosting UKIP to the mid 20s.
From my day job in the financial services industry, we've gone from hoping we'll have financial passporting, to an expectation we wont.
I don't want disaster to befall my country, that's why I want Brexit to be a success, even though I didn't vote or want Brexit.
Could someone identify for me the Remainers on thread who are supposedly seeking to block Brexit?
Y
.
What is his PB name?
TSE
.
.
We're leaving the EU, the customs union, our membership of the single market, and the freedom of movement.
The people have spoken, Leave campaigned on withdrawing from the single market and the freedom of movement, the government should implement the will of the people.
Whilst I would like to see the principle of the whole Royal Prerogative tested in court, my own feeling is that long drawn out parliamentary discussion and vote won't help with getting a good Brexit deal.
Is that what you want, or what you think will happen, or is that what you want to happen just so Brexit can be a disaster and you can say Told you so?
Serious question.
It is what I expect to happen.
1) You cannot plausibly remain a member of the customs union and have your own trade deals. Enough Leavers have said they want WTO rules rather than remain in the custom unions.
2) Enough people in the EU have said if we want good access to the single market, we need to accept the freedom of the movement. Theresa May and you know, immigration was the prime mover for Leavers, she cannot sell freedom of movement without boosting UKIP to the mid 20s.
From my day job in the financial services industry, we've gone from hoping we'll have financial passporting, to an expectation we wont.
I don't want disaster to befall my country, that's why I want Brexit to be a success, even though I didn't vote or want Brexit.
What do you make of MIFID II equivalency rules? If you're unable to talk about it because it's an active line of work for you I understand.
Could someone identify for me the Remainers on thread who are supposedly seeking to block Brexit?
Y
.
What is his PB name?
TSE
.
.
We're leaving the EU, the customs union, our membership of the single market, and the freedom of movement.
The people have spoken, Leave campaigned on withdrawing from the single market and the freedom of movement, the government should implement the will of the people.
Whilst I would like to see the principle of the whole Royal Prerogative tested in court, my own feeling is that long drawn out parliamentary discussion and vote won't help with getting a good Brexit deal.
Is that what you want, or what you think will happen, or is that what you want to happen just so Brexit can be a disaster and you can say Told you so?
Serious question.
It is what I expect to happen.
1) You cannot plausibly remain a member of the customs union and have your own trade deals. Enough Leavers have said they want WTO rules rather than remain in the custom unions.
2) Enough people in the EU have said if we want good access to the single market, we need to accept the freedom of the movement. Theresa May and you know, immigration was the prime mover for Leavers, she cannot sell freedom of movement without boosting UKIP to the mid 20s.
From my day job in the financial services industry, we've gone from hoping we'll have financial passporting, to an expectation we wont.
I don't want disaster to befall my country, that's why I want Brexit to be a success, even though I didn't vote or want Brexit.
'Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”. One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.”'
Do you regard Ashcroft as a voodoo pollster? Is there other polling which contradicts him and supports your claim that " Theresa May and you know, immigration was the prime mover for Leavers"?
@williamglenn It's worth elaborating on my previous post, which was typed on my phone whilst walking, I feel.
Thatcher was forced out as Tory leader and PM by the odious Michael Heseltine, in part because she was seen as insufficiently pro-'Europe'. John Major then entered No. 10 and took us into the ERM. He kept us there well after it became clear that it wasn't working and had to whack interest rates up to silly levels, hurting businesses and homeowners immensely in the process, in order to maintain the peg. This all ended with chaos and turmoil when we crashed out anyway.
That is a crystal clear example of sane government being undermined by Eurofanatics, but not in the way you'd like to think.
Could someone identify for me the Remainers on thread who are supposedly seeking to block Brexit?
Y
.
What is his PB name?
TSE
.
.
We're leaving the EU, the customs union, our membership of the single market, and the freedom of movement.
The people have spoken, Leave campaigned on withdrawing from the single market and the freedom of movement, the government should implement the will of the people.
Whilst I would like to see the principle of the whole Royal Prerogative tested in court, my own feeling is that long drawn out parliamentary discussion and vote won't help with getting a good Brexit deal.
Is that what you want, or what you think will happen, or is that what you want to happen just so Brexit can be a disaster and you can say Told you so?
Serious question.
It is what I expect to happen.
1) You cannot plausibly remain a member of the customs union and have your own trade deals. Enough Leavers have said they want WTO rules rather than remain in the custom unions.
2) Enough people in the EU have said if we want good access to the single market, we need to accept the freedom of the movement. Theresa May and you know, immigration was the prime mover for Leavers, she cannot sell freedom of movement without boosting UKIP to the mid 20s.
From my day job in the financial services industry, we've gone from hoping we'll have financial passporting, to an expectation we wont.
I don't want disaster to befall my country, that's why I want Brexit to be a success, even though I didn't vote or want Brexit.
'Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”. One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.”'
Do you regard Ashcroft as a voodoo pollster? Is there other polling which contradicts him and supports your claim that " Theresa May and you know, immigration was the prime mover for Leavers"?
You could argue that those two responses could both be used to describe immigration concerns.
Could someone identify for me the Remainers on thread who are supposedly seeking to block Brexit?
Y
.
What is his PB name?
TSE
.
.
We're leaving the EU, the customs union, our membership of the single market, and the freedom of movement.
The people have spoken, Leave campaigned on withdrawing from the single market and the freedom of movement, the government should implement the will of the people.
Whilst I would like to see the principle of the whole Royal Prerogative tested in court, my own feeling is that long drawn out parliamentary discussion and vote won't help with getting a good Brexit deal.
Is that what you want, or what you think will happen, or is that what you want to happen just so Brexit can be a disaster and you can say Told you so?
Serious question.
It is what I expect to happen.
1) You cannot plausibly remain a member of the customs union and have your own trade deals. Enough Leavers have said they want WTO rules rather than remain in the custom unions.
2) Enough people in the EU have said if we want good access to the single market, we need to accept the freedom of the movement. Theresa May and you know, immigration was the prime mover for Leavers, she cannot sell freedom of movement without boosting UKIP to the mid 20s.
From my day job in the financial services industry, we've gone from hoping we'll have financial passporting, to an expectation we wont.
I don't want disaster to befall my country, that's why I want Brexit to be a success, even though I didn't vote or want Brexit.
'Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”. One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.”'
Do you regard Ashcroft as a voodoo pollster? Is there other polling which contradicts him and supports your claim that " Theresa May and you know, immigration was the prime mover for Leavers"?
Could someone identify for me the Remainers on thread who are supposedly seeking to block Brexit?
Y
.
What is his PB name?
TSE
.
.
We're leaving the EU, the customs union, our membership of the single market, and the freedom of movement.
The people have spoken, Leave campaigned on withdrawing from the single market and the freedom of movement, the government should implement the will of the people.
Whilst I [snip for space]deal.
Is that what you want, or what you think will happen, or is that what you want to happen just so Brexit can be a disaster and you can say Told you so?
Serious question.
It is what I expect to happen.
1) You cannot plausibly remain a member of the customs union and have your own trade deals. Enough Leavers have said they want WTO rules rather than remain in the custom unions.
2) Enough people in the EU have said if we want good access to the single market, we need to accept the freedom of the movement. Theresa May and you know, immigration was the prime mover for Leavers, she cannot sell freedom of movement without boosting UKIP to the mid 20s.
From my day job in the financial services industry, we've gone from hoping we'll have financial passporting, to an expectation we wont.
I don't want disaster to befall my country, that's why I want Brexit to be a success, even though I didn't vote or want Brexit.
'Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”. One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.”'
Do you regard Ashcroft as a voodoo pollster? Is there other polling which contradicts him and supports your claim that " Theresa May and you know, immigration was the prime mover for Leavers"?
You could argue that those two responses could both be used to describe immigration concerns.
Not really. Option 2 says in effect that "immigration was the prime mover for Leavers", which is the claim I am contesting. Options 1 and 3 say something different.
@williamglenn It's worth elaborating on my previous post, which was typed on my phone whilst walking, I feel.
Thatcher was forced out as Tory leader and PM by the odious Michael Heseltine, in part because she was seen as insufficiently pro-'Europe'. John Major then entered No. 10 and took us into the ERM. He kept us there well after it became clear that it wasn't working and had to whack interest rates up to silly levels, hurting businesses and homeowners immensely in the process, in order to maintain the peg. This all ended with chaos and turmoil when we crashed out anyway.
That is a crystal clear example of sane government being undermined by Eurofanatics, but not in the way you'd like to think.
Rewriting history there. It was Thatcher as PM who took us into the ERM
Could someone identify for me the Remainers on thread who are supposedly seeking to block Brexit?
Y
.
What is his PB name?
TSE
.
.
We're leaving the EU, the customs union, our membership of the single market, and the freedom of movement.
snip4space deal.
Is that what you want, or what you think will happen, or is that what you want to happen just so Brexit can be a disaster and you can say Told you so?
Serious question.
It is what I expect to happen.
1) You cannot plausibly remain a member of the customs union and have your own trade deals. Enough Leavers have said they want WTO rules rather than remain in the custom unions.
2) Enough people in the EU have said if we want good access to the single market, we need to accept the freedom of the movement. Theresa May and you know, immigration was the prime mover for Leavers, she cannot sell freedom of movement without boosting UKIP to the mid 20s.
From my day job in the financial services industry, we've gone from hoping we'll have financial passporting, to an expectation we wont.
I don't want disaster to befall my country, that's why I want Brexit to be a success, even though I didn't vote or want Brexit.
'Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”. One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.”'
Do you regard Ashcroft as a voodoo pollster? Is there other polling which contradicts him and supports your claim that " Theresa May and you know, immigration was the prime mover for Leavers"?
Jesus H Christ. We are talking about how many leavers were concerned about immigration. That tweet is about how many people concerned about immigration were leavers. Do you genuinely not see any material difference between the two?
@williamglenn It's worth elaborating on my previous post, which was typed on my phone whilst walking, I feel.
Thatcher was forced out as Tory leader and PM by the odious Michael Heseltine, in part because she was seen as insufficiently pro-'Europe'. John Major then entered No. 10 and took us into the ERM. He kept us there well after it became clear that it wasn't working and had to whack interest rates up to silly levels, hurting businesses and homeowners immensely in the process, in order to maintain the peg. This all ended with chaos and turmoil when we crashed out anyway.
That is a crystal clear example of sane government being undermined by Eurofanatics, but not in the way you'd like to think.
Rewriting history there. It was Thatcher as PM who took us into the ERM
Sorry, right you are. She wasn't enthusiastic about it though, and certainly wasn't there to go to ridiculous lengths to keep us in.
'Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”. One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.”'
Do you regard Ashcroft as a voodoo pollster? Is there other polling which contradicts him and supports your claim that " Theresa May and you know, immigration was the prime mover for Leavers"?
The latest YouGov/Sunday Times poll has in answer to the following question:
Which of the following do you think are the most important issues facing the country at this time? Please tick up to four.
Immigration & Asylum: (Voted Leave) 75% - by far the biggest issue; (Voted Remain) 29% - issue number 4.
Take it as you will, but I think the differences are significant.
Other issues
Britain leaving the EU (Remain) 50% (Leave) 59% Health (Remain) 46% (Leave) 37% The economy (Remain) 44% (Leave) 33%
Could someone identify for me the Remainers on thread who are supposedly seeking to block Brexit?
Y
.
What is his PB name?
TSE
.
.
We're leaving the EU, the customs union, our membership of the single market, and the freedom of movement.
The and vote won't help with getting a good Brexit deal.
Is that what you want, or what you think will happen, or is that what you want to happen just so Brexit can be a disaster and you can say Told you so?
Serious question.
It is what I expect to happen.
1) You cannot plausibly remain a member of the customs union and have your own trade deals. Enough Leavers have said they want WTO rules rather than remain in the custom unions.
2) Enough people in the EU have said if we want good access to the single market, we need to accept the freedom of the movement. Theresa May and you know, immigration was the prime mover for Leavers, she cannot sell freedom of movement without boosting UKIP to the mid 20s.
From my day job in the financial services industry, we've gone from hoping we'll have financial passporting, to an expectation we wont.
I don't want disaster to befall my country, that's why I want Brexit to be a success, even though I didn't vote or want Brexit.
'Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”. One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.”'
Do you regard Ashcroft as a voodoo pollster? Is there other polling which contradicts him and supports your claim that " Theresa May and you know, immigration was the prime mover for Leavers"?
@williamglenn It's worth elaborating on my previous post, which was typed on my phone whilst walking, I feel.
Thatcher was forced out as Tory leader and PM by the odious Michael Heseltine, in part because she was seen as insufficiently pro-'Europe'. John Major then entered No. 10 and took us into the ERM. He kept us there well after it became clear that it wasn't working and had to whack interest rates up to silly levels, hurting businesses and homeowners immensely in the process, in order to maintain the peg. This all ended with chaos and turmoil when we crashed out anyway.
That is a crystal clear example of sane government being undermined by Eurofanatics, but not in the way you'd like to think.
Rewriting history there. It was Thatcher as PM who took us into the ERM
Sorry, right you are. She wasn't enthusiastic about it though, and certainly wasn't there to go to ridiculous lengths to keep us in.
I think it was the risk of the pound being less valuable than the US dollar that pushed her into it.
I think the problem with the Lord Ashcroft poll is that people could think “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK” applies to immigration too. There isn't enough discrimination in the reasons to get an accurate picture of why voters voted the way they did. There was a similar problem with his Scottish independence post-referendum poll. He gave three very convoluted reasons for each of the vote choices. In many cases none of them would apply.
Jesus H Christ. We are talking about how many leavers were concerned about immigration. That tweet is about how many people concerned about immigration were leavers. Do you genuinely not see any material difference between the two?
I am aware of the difference.
I think BES studies will provide the definitive answer on why people voted the way they did.
I'm hopeful they'll publish their findings from their polling series before Christmas.
Must have been a different Ishmael who mocked Lord Ashcroft polling a while ago, I believe the phrase was 'laughing stock'
Could someone identify for me the Remainers on thread who are supposedly seeking to block Brexit?
Y
.
What is his PB name?
TSE
.
.
We're leaving the EU, the customs union, our membership of the single market, and the freedom of movement.
The people have spoken, Leave campaigned on withdrawing from the single market and the freedom of movement, the government should implement the will of the people.
Whilst I would like to see the principle of the whole Royal Prerogative tested in court, my own feeling is that long drawn out parliamentary discussion and vote won't help with getting a good Brexit deal.
Is that what you want, or what you think will happen, or is that what you want to happen just so Brexit can be a disaster and you can say Told you so?
Serious question.
It is what I expect to happen.
1) You cannot plausibly remain a member of the customs union and have your own trade deals. Enough Leavers have said they want WTO rules rather than remain in the custom unions.
2) Enough people in the EU have said if we want good access to the single market, we need to accept the freedom of the movement. Theresa May and you know, immigration was the prime mover for Leavers, she cannot sell freedom of movement without boosting UKIP to the mid 20s.
From my day job in the financial services industry, we've gone from hoping we'll have financial passporting, to an expectation we wont.
I don't want disaster to befall my country, that's why I want Brexit to be a success, even though I didn't vote or want Brexit.
'Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”. One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.”'
Do you regard Ashcroft as a voodoo pollster? Is there other polling which contradicts him and supports your claim that " Theresa May and you know, immigration was the prime mover for Leavers"?
Given his performanxe at the 2015 GE, Ashcroft has zero credibility as a pollster.
@williamglenn It's worth elaborating on my previous post, which was typed on my phone whilst walking, I feel.
Thatcher was forced out as Tory leader and PM by the odious Michael Heseltine, in part because she was seen as insufficiently pro-'Europe'. John Major then entered No. 10 and took us into the ERM. He kept us there well after it became clear that it wasn't working and had to whack interest rates up to silly levels, hurting businesses and homeowners immensely in the process, in order to maintain the peg. This all ended with chaos and turmoil when we crashed out anyway.
That is a crystal clear example of sane government being undermined by Eurofanatics, but not in the way you'd like to think.
Rewriting history there. It was Thatcher as PM who took us into the ERM
Sorry, right you are. She wasn't enthusiastic about it though, and certainly wasn't there to go to ridiculous lengths to keep us in.
@williamglenn It's worth elaborating on my previous post, which was typed on my phone whilst walking, I feel.
Thatcher was forced out as Tory leader and PM by the odious Michael Heseltine, in part because she was seen as insufficiently pro-'Europe'. John Major then entered No. 10 and took us into the ERM. He kept us there well after it became clear that it wasn't working and had to whack interest rates up to silly levels, hurting businesses and homeowners immensely in the process, in order to maintain the peg. This all ended with chaos and turmoil when we crashed out anyway.
That is a crystal clear example of sane government being undermined by Eurofanatics, but not in the way you'd like to think.
Rewriting history there. It was Thatcher as PM who took us into the ERM
Sorry, right you are. She wasn't enthusiastic about it though, and certainly wasn't there to go to ridiculous lengths to keep us in.
Thatcher was the great EU Federalist.
1) Campaigned on the Remain side in 1975
2) Signed the Single European Act
3) Took us into the ERM
After those events she did move a little to the eurosceptic side
Could someone identify for me the Remainers on thread who are supposedly seeking to block Brexit?
Y
.
What is his PB name?
TSE
.
.
.
Is that what you want, or what you think will happen, or is that what you want to happen just so Brexit can be a disaster and you can say Told you so?
Serious question.
it.
Interesting. If you're right it will be a rough old ride.
I still think there will be more compromise, from both sides. I expect a fudge.
We have our red lines, they have their red lines. One of the reasons Mrs May might not be that upset if Article 50 is delayed by the courts is that in 2017 we've got the French and German elections. That could make negotiations difficult
"The Cameron\Blair Liberal agenda which you support was rejected by the electorate and its proponents cant come to terms with their views being shot down in flames."
Urrrrm, no.
We had a referendum on EU membership. As expected, people are now expanding that into areas outwith that. They're going to be sorely disappointed.
It's almost as though they don't like the world and want to get off. Fortunately Elon Musk might be unveiling plans in a short while that might help them:
If the EU had their way, they would want EU law extended to Mars ;p
It's more like America will want American law ...
That's one of the things Elon Musk may address in 25 minutes or so: he wants a million people living on Mars. *If* that happens, and if it proves to be liveable, what sort of society will it be? What is the model?
There's only one way to decide this:
Elon for Elon.
(Allegedly Wernher von Bran wrote a scifi book 'Project Mars' about building a society on Mars. In it, he names the leader of the society 'the Elon'. Spookily, the many who wants to build such a society is called Elon).
@williamglenn It's worth elaborating on my previous post, which was typed on my phone whilst walking, I feel.
Thatcher was forced out as Tory leader and PM by the odious Michael Heseltine, in part because she was seen as insufficiently pro-'Europe'. John Major then entered No. 10 and took us into the ERM. He kept us there well after it became clear that it wasn't working and had to whack interest rates up to silly levels, hurting businesses and homeowners immensely in the process, in order to maintain the peg. This all ended with chaos and turmoil when we crashed out anyway.
That is a crystal clear example of sane government being undermined by Eurofanatics, but not in the way you'd like to think.
Rewriting history there. It was Thatcher as PM who took us into the ERM
Sorry, right you are. She wasn't enthusiastic about it though, and certainly wasn't there to go to ridiculous lengths to keep us in.
Thatcher was the great EU Federalist.
1) Campaigned on the Remain side in 1975
2) Signed the Single European Act
3) Took us into the ERM
1) For a trading agreement, not a political union.
2) ...and regretted it.
3) As FF43 pointed out, there was some economic rationale to that. There was no such rationale to 15% interest rates, that was pure ideology; a milder form of throwing a generation on the scrapheap in the Med to keep the euro alive. Would Thatcher have done what Major did? We'll never know for sure.
1) You cannot plausibly remain a member of the customs union and have your own trade deals. Enough Leavers have said they want WTO rules rather than remain in the custom unions.
Someone should tell Turkey, which is part of the customs union but has still managed to sign 19 free trade agreements, has 14 under negotiation and 13 planned.
@williamglenn It's worth elaborating on my previous post, which was typed on my phone whilst walking, I feel.
Thatcher was forced out as Tory leader and PM by the odious Michael Heseltine, in part because she was seen as insufficiently pro-'Europe'. John Major then entered No. 10 and took us into the ERM. He kept us there well after it became clear that it wasn't working and had to whack interest rates up to silly levels, hurting businesses and homeowners immensely in the process, in order to maintain the peg. This all ended with chaos and turmoil when we crashed out anyway.
That is a crystal clear example of sane government being undermined by Eurofanatics, but not in the way you'd like to think.
Rewriting history there. It was Thatcher as PM who took us into the ERM
Sorry, right you are. She wasn't enthusiastic about it though, and certainly wasn't there to go to ridiculous lengths to keep us in.
Thatcher was the great EU Federalist.
1) Campaigned on the Remain side in 1975
2) Signed the Single European Act
3) Took us into the ERM
1) For a trading agreement, not a political union.
2) ...and regretted it.
3) As FF43 pointed out, there was some economic rationale to that. There was no such rationale to 15% interest rates, that was pure ideology; a milder form of throwing a generation on the scrapheap in the Med to keep the euro alive. Would Thatcher have done what Major did? We'll never know for sure.
1) You're accusing her of remarkable ignorance. 2) She deepened the union after having been PM for over 5 years. Not much evidence of regret there. 3) The domestic rationale was that it gave cover for a harsh regime to target inflation which was successful. Whether Thatcher wouldn't have acted differently during the crisis of 1992 is of purely academic interest.
1) You cannot plausibly remain a member of the customs union and have your own trade deals. Enough Leavers have said they want WTO rules rather than remain in the custom unions.
Someone should tell Turkey, which is part of the customs union but has still managed to sign 19 free trade agreements, has 14 under negotiation and 13 planned.
Comments
Help! Our Sunil1000 bot has got stuck in a tweet-a-thon loop. Any ideas?
But that is not enough for our remainer friends. They want what they want. And they want it NOW.
I have several friends like you who just cant accept Remain lost even though they live in the most out region in the country. But they commute to London to work and have no feel for what life outside london corporate land is like.
The fact remains those who dont benefit from the 90s/ 00s consesnus outnumber those who do. It's time for out parties to go back to the drawing board and reimagine society.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn promises to bring back the Plague
http://news.sky.com/story/labour-leader-jeremy-corbyn-promises-to-bring-back-socialism-10595619
PB right now is like an old veterans society talking about past battles and wars that have long ended.
And Cameron’s going to be remembered as as much of a “loser PM” as Lord North or Antony Eden.
Never mind Mr Goodwin, whoever he is, look at the Ashcroft polling. Which I can't be bothered to find again, so try google.
And that is why Clinton will lose to Trump in my view, no matter how many liberal news outlets say she has won. This isn;t working for too many.
On that note ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLjNzwEULG8
In fairness to Remainers, they recognise that this is really their only shot. Once Britain is properly out of the EU it's difficult to conceive of a set of circumstances where we'd vote to go back in - second time round we eurosceptics would no longer have the handicap of being the 'change' option.
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/780690655693705216
Contrary to general perceptions, Britain seems in general to have been getting less anxious and more satisfied.
A home win in the CL would do very nicely.
You can't magic away our geographic position and the complexities of our interdependent relationship with the continent by winning a vote.
I don't think any of the comments on here were just limited to remainers on this board.
Or going forwards, Theresa May and Philip Hammond faced with Anna Soubry and Nicholas Soames.
I must have missed it.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/george-osborne-says-the-bank-of-englands-quantitative-easing-makes-the-rich-richer-a7333256.html
Mr Maugham is deeply involved in the legal case so it was prudent for it to be shared on PB.
Should I have posted a trigger warning? Did it violate Leaver safe space, I know some of you Leavers are such delicate flowers.
Is this the same Nicholas Soames who hurled sweary abuse at James Cleverly for suggesting Leavers and Remainers should work together after the referendum, whatever the result?
Urrrrm, no.
We had a referendum on EU membership. As expected, people are now expanding that into areas outwith that. They're going to be sorely disappointed.
It's almost as though they don't like the world and want to get off. Fortunately Elon Musk might be unveiling plans in a short while that might help them:
http://www.spacex.com/mars
Media analyst: Oh... death!
Ali M: Yeah, but apart from that.
From my back of an envelope calculations,
UKIP, DUP, and Labour leave MPs all vote out.
SNP, SDLP, PC Green, UUP, Independent, and 218 Labour Remain MPs all vote in
Then there would need to be ether 28 Tory MPs votes against or 56 abstentions, or a combination.
In reality, I suspect that a lot of the 150 ish Lab MPs in areas that voted Out, to ether abstain or vote out, And I think the LD and possibly UUP, will abstain.
So using a parliamentary vote to stop Brexit, looks hopeless to me.
What it may do is put a lot of the 150 Lab MPs in leave areas in a difficult place, Vote remain and they are vulnerable to UKIP at a general election, vote Leave, and they become more vulnerable at reselection.
What does everybody else think? Have I missed something? is anybody keeping a tally of how MPs have declared they will vote if it does come to parliament?
Where are the frothing Brexiteers and swivel eyed loons when needed? Nowhere to be found. Too scared to open the A50 box...
Why is it that people suddenly can talk so honestly once out of office ?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/27/jeremy-corbyn-labour-conference-2016
The people have spoken, Leave campaigned on withdrawing from the single market and the freedom of movement, the government should implement the will of the people.
Whilst I would like to see the principle of the whole Royal Prerogative tested in court, my own feeling is that long drawn out parliamentary discussion and vote won't help with getting a good Brexit deal.
REMAIN 48%
After all, Pandora's box contained Hope
Trump is going crazy on voodo polls, calling a woman too fat in public whilst being obese homself, and teaming up with rudy 'dumped his wife during a live press conference' gulliani to say how clinton is stupid for taking her husband back.
He really hates being shown up publically. and showing his calm temperment
DB has been described to me by a former regulator as "unregulatable" and German regulation has been some of the weakest in Europe for some time.
No-one wants an autumn shock to the markets. And yet Q3 is usually when such shocks happen, at least in my experience.
Labour MPs must now have a deep think about why the leadership challenge was such a spectacular failure"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/25/labour-moderates-learn-lessons-team-corbyn-andrew-rawnsley
1) You cannot plausibly remain a member of the customs union and have your own trade deals. Enough Leavers have said they want WTO rules rather than remain in the custom unions.
2) Enough people in the EU have said if we want good access to the single market, we need to accept the freedom of the movement. Theresa May and you know, immigration was the prime mover for Leavers, she cannot sell freedom of movement without boosting UKIP to the mid 20s.
From my day job in the financial services industry, we've gone from hoping we'll have financial passporting, to an expectation we wont.
I don't want disaster to befall my country, that's why I want Brexit to be a success, even though I didn't vote or want Brexit.
I never thought I'd live to see the day.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/
Do you regard Ashcroft as a voodoo pollster? Is there other polling which contradicts him and supports your claim that " Theresa May and you know, immigration was the prime mover for Leavers"?
Thatcher was forced out as Tory leader and PM by the odious Michael Heseltine, in part because she was seen as insufficiently pro-'Europe'. John Major then entered No. 10 and took us into the ERM. He kept us there well after it became clear that it wasn't working and had to whack interest rates up to silly levels, hurting businesses and homeowners immensely in the process, in order to maintain the peg. This all ended with chaos and turmoil when we crashed out anyway.
That is a crystal clear example of sane government being undermined by Eurofanatics, but not in the way you'd like to think.
Something to do with Shad Cab defenestration?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/27/the-loony-left-is-back---but-the-tories-would-be-crazy-to-be-com/
Which of the following do you think are the most important issues facing the country at this time? Please tick up to four.
Immigration & Asylum: (Voted Leave) 75% - by far the biggest issue; (Voted Remain) 29% - issue number 4.
Take it as you will, but I think the differences are significant.
Other issues
Britain leaving the EU (Remain) 50% (Leave) 59%
Health (Remain) 46% (Leave) 37%
The economy (Remain) 44% (Leave) 33%
So there
I think BES studies will provide the definitive answer on why people voted the way they did.
I'm hopeful they'll publish their findings from their polling series before Christmas.
Must have been a different Ishmael who mocked Lord Ashcroft polling a while ago, I believe the phrase was 'laughing stock'
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/664758/#Comment_664758
1) Campaigned on the Remain side in 1975
2) Signed the Single European Act
3) Took us into the ERM
The yanks really may be arriving this time.
That's one of the things Elon Musk may address in 25 minutes or so: he wants a million people living on Mars. *If* that happens, and if it proves to be liveable, what sort of society will it be? What is the model?
There's only one way to decide this:
Elon for Elon.
(Allegedly Wernher von Bran wrote a scifi book 'Project Mars' about building a society on Mars. In it, he names the leader of the society 'the Elon'. Spookily, the many who wants to build such a society is called Elon).
Oh, and a teaser:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qo78R_yYFA
2) ...and regretted it.
3) As FF43 pointed out, there was some economic rationale to that. There was no such rationale to 15% interest rates, that was pure ideology; a milder form of throwing a generation on the scrapheap in the Med to keep the euro alive. Would Thatcher have done what Major did? We'll never know for sure.
2) She deepened the union after having been PM for over 5 years. Not much evidence of regret there.
3) The domestic rationale was that it gave cover for a harsh regime to target inflation which was successful. Whether Thatcher wouldn't have acted differently during the crisis of 1992 is of purely academic interest.
How trolled can you get if you're a rocket fanboi !!