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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s the big one in WH2016 and the betting could be tu
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s the big one in WH2016 and the betting could be turned on its head
In previous White House Races the first debate has been seen as a sort of official start to hostilities. This is said to be the point when voters start to get engaged. This time that is much less so because public interest in the fight to succeed Obama has been far higher than anything we’ve seen before.
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http://blog.dilbert.com/post/150919416661/why-i-switched-my-endorsement-from-clinton-to
Meanwhile, PB punters might like to contemplate the Magic Sign's "Buzzword Bingo" (aka Shadsy's pension Fund) on which words or phrases may or may not be uttered in tonight's TV debate between the two contenders. Personally, this is a market I avoid like the plague ever since Shads took a bit of a caning on a budget speech iirc and has since been far less accommodating in his selections ...... I mean take for example "Monica Lewinsky" tonight, on offer at just 10/1 - come on, do me a favour!
Unite general secretary Len McCluskey told BBC Scotland all representatives should be elected and not appointed
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37468147
Personally, I'll be surprised if Trump doesn't at least tie tonight's TV debate and probably go on to win them overall - I think he's stronger and more determined. Also, I suspect that there are a greater number of shy Republicans than shy Democrats. With the polls currently very close, it seems to me that the betting value lies with Trump at Betfair's current decimal odds of 1.59 for Hillary and 2.94 for the Donald. Were they instead say at 1.75 and 2.50 respectively, or thereabouts, I might feel differently.
I have a different issue in terms of Forex. If Trump wins the $ will sink for a time so judging how and when to make my foreign currency transactions over the next two months is tricky.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-netanyahu-idUSKCN11V0Q6
At 11.58 on the 15th June 2015 Jeremy Corbyn crept over the line of the required 35 nominations: two minutes before nominations closed. Some of those came from people who disagreed with his policies but 'felt he should be on the ballot.' The rest, as they say, is history.
Those two minutes brought the death of Labour.
Oh, and I don't think I said so, but thanks for yesterday's piece.
In a two-way matchup between the major-party nominees, Clinton tops Trump by 49 percent to 47 percent among likely voters, and the two are tied at 46 percent among all registered voters. Clinton’s two-point edge among likely voters, in both the four-way and two-way ballot tests, is within the survey’s 4.5 percentage-point margin of sampling error.
...Most Americans say they are following the campaign diligently, but a higher percentage of Trump supporters appear to be paying close attention than Clinton backers. Also, more Clinton backers say they are not registered to vote, which adds to pressure on her team to get them registered and to the polls.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-clinton-trump-in-virtual-dead-heat-on-eve-of-first-debate/2016/09/24/b99c95de-81cb-11e6-8327-f141a7beb626_story.html?wpisrc=nl_most-draw6&wpmm=1
Who do I blame? Brown. He and his henchmen destroyed the careers of many rivals who might have done a good job in 2010. He could also have adjusted Labour's trajectory in Scotland which saw abuses such as Falkirk.
He wasn't the start of the rot, but he fed the rot bucketloads of sugary drinks.
As for Trump, I am afraid he is a racist. Saying someone cannot do their job properly solely because of their ethnicity is racism, pure and simple. If people want to support him, that's fine. But they can't complain if I and others point out they are supporting a racist. They are. I suspect that for a fair few that is not a problem anyway.
I wonder how much either candidate can gain from the debates, although maybe there's a low bar of expectation from them both. They've both got a lot to lose though, one slip of the tongue could sink their campaign.
From a betting view, maybe it's worth a quid or two on Gary Johnson, currently 950 on Betfair. He's unlikely to win, but if the American public wake up to how completely crap the main two candidates are, there might be a chance he can get a seat in one of the later debates - which would bring his price in massively.
Did you see that Derek Hatton is at the Conference, or rather Conference (I never did get the faux-working class loss of the definite article)? He was there with the approval of Corbyn's office. His rehabilitation into the party would complete the rout.
Bye bye Labour.
30 years later and they're all back and they're in charge.
** words of mass destruction.
And this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_azcqlYC2s
Edit/ on the one hand a BBC journalist saying he has see a letter gives the story credibility. On the other, so many of the plotters were at the 'stay in labour' rally yesterday, it would be odd to start breaking away the day after?
Its Trump's election to lose
"In private conversations (the only sort where people will say what they really think), you find out what this means. Democrats are holding their noses over Hillary because they despise her and wish she wasn’t their candidate.
But many Republicans are stifling their genuine enthusiasm for Trump, because – in small towns like this – they don’t want to annoy or alienate neighbours who may also be customers, clients, patients or employers."
"I first came to Moscow, Idaho, eight years ago when the great Obama frenzy was at its unhinged peak. This is a divided place, traditional rural conservatives living alongside a Left-wing university campus.....
People disagreed, but they did it politely and openly..... Almost every front lawn had its partisan placard.
Now politics has gone underground in an almost sinister way. I searched the town’s pleasant suburbs for a Trump or Clinton poster and found none, only a single defiant declaration of support for America’s Jeremy Corbyn, the Left-winger Bernie Sanders, who long ago quit the race."
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk.
I said this was Brexit 2.0 months ago. I still think it is.
I would vote for Trump but I wouldn't dare admit it to any pollster or anyone I know.
Scott Adams said McCain would win and endorsed Romeny. He has no political accuem at all. I have no idea why people keep linkinh to his blog posts.
Hillary's woes over health and emails have been nibbling away at independents - whilst the terror attacks and shootings play straight into Trump's tough guy Law & Order wheelhouse.
He's a master of the newscycle - when did Hillary last have one that was positive about her or her campaign? I can't remember one. I read a lot of trending topics on Twitter - and Hillary fans are downbeat, Trumpers are tails up.
But even keener on this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRXKHTTzayU
Sanders, Biden should not be sub 100.0, and as for Michelle Obama's price...
Poor show from the BBC guy talking publicly about the letter (if it exists), really. Normally journalists would do the right thing and keep quiet. Which of course could be a clue that there is something big unusually worth trailing.
Joey doesn't share! Matt LeBlanc has signed a huge £2m two-year deal to be sole #TopGear host https://t.co/ReKoaYThtq https://t.co/NsjmXQRVI7
The fact that such a rumour can be taken seriously tells you all you need to know. Having now seen the disgusting leaflet handed out at the Momentum anti-Semitism meeting one thing is clear.
Its them or us. Momentum is the coup. They stay. We die. Its that simple.
*goes to find R4 live stream*
Mine for Nothing
This is how close Donald Trump is to victory. Just needs to take Colorado. Current polling very tight. https://t.co/MbHNcVZQob
We shall find out in the next few minutes I guess?
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1851278/house-of-lords-will-try-and-throw-out-200-peers-and-permanently-slash-its-size-by-a-quarter/
(actually the US is Rhodesia 1.0 and Rhodesia is 2.0 but thats bye the bye. )
This is the eqiuvalent of the 1962 Rhodesian election when the pro UDI Rhodesian Front, later to be led by Smith unexpectedly beat the establishment United Federal Party.
The eatablishment always wins in Rhodesia it was said. However liberal Prime Minister Sir Garfield Todd was seen to gave given too many concessions to Joshua Nkomo and suffered a shock defeat.
Three years later in the 1965 election, the Rhodesia Front under Smith won every single seat.
The liberal left have made the same mistake only worse by smearing all whites as racist and now electorates are going all Rhodesian.
Can't see it myself. Will be a terrible blow to Labour organisationally and a huge boost to Corbyn personally if it does happen though. A double whammy that could kill the whole party stone dead.
I wonder what Satan charged Theresa for the sale of her soul?
Back:
Joe Biden 99.05 £21.00
Gary Johnson 650.20 £4.00
Mike Pence 1,000.00 £5.00 V green
Paul Ryan 386.39 £7.20
Bernie Sanders 33.41 £232.75
Jill Stein 1,000.00 £2.00
Lay:
Joe Biden 52.53 £69.15 Very red
Tim Kaine 160.00 £12.00 Quite green
Michelle Obama 480 £2.00 V red
Paul Ryan 220.00 £2.00 Green
Bernie Sanders 32.52 £286.27 V red
Elizabeth Warren 990.00 £2.00 red.
Which adds up to £100 profit come the night itself.
That makes them the Official Opposition and relegates Corbyn's party to the back benches with the SNP.
http://www.lbc.co.uk/politics/which-party-agrees-with-you/quiz-how-left-are-you/?nn
Let's be clear. The majority of pre-2015 members feel like the party has been stolen from us and been replaced by this democratic hate mob of chanting ideologues. To up and leave - to abandon this 116 year old movement to the kind of scum handing out anti-semitic leaflets at a merting discussing anti-semitism would be screaming cowardice. We can't leave. They will have to leave.
In short: voters feeling their representatives are on their side.
What we're seeing now is a political storm to make that sentiment fully felt. Saying that Trump is repugnant fuels it, IMHO, because the thing many voters want the most is to annoy/offend the established political players as much as possible.
Good luck anyway I can only agree with your sentiments and approach.