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SystemSystem Posts: 12,265
edited September 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The chart from the highly accurate YouGov poll that shows how totally split LAB is

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  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrTCHarris: Odd that no Labour MP is saying the blindingly obvious: that Labour is now two different, warring parties.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour's candidate for Guildford in 2015:

    https://twitter.com/WindleshamRich/status/779639841562718208
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,755
    That's a big shift among pre-September Labour members. But, the party has now been swamped by communists.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,239
    The battle for the Labour Party has been lost. The battle for Britain must now begin.

    It will not be the walk in the park that many Tories seem to think. A divided and marginally competent government against a divided and incompetent opposition. Alien-v- Predator anyone?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    French President Francois Hollande has said he intends to close the "Jungle" camp in Calais and move 9,000 migrants to reception centres across France.

    Setting out for the first time detailed plans to deal with the camp, Mr Hollande said migrants would be given up to four months to seek asylum.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37462767
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    AndyJS said:

    Labour's candidate for Guildford in 2015:

    https://twitter.com/WindleshamRich/status/779639841562718208

    I DON'T BELIEVE IT....oh not that Richard Wilson....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,917
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    French President Francois Hollande has said he intends to close the "Jungle" camp

    That'll scupper Owen Smith's next career move on I'm A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here.

    Oh, not that jungle camp...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,928
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    French President Francois Hollande has said he intends to close the "Jungle" camp in Calais and move 9,000 migrants to reception centres across France.

    Setting out for the first time detailed plans to deal with the camp, Mr Hollande said migrants would be given up to four months to seek asylum.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37462767

    Woah. That almost sounds like a good idea. Presumably there's catch?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited September 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    French President Francois Hollande has said he intends to close the "Jungle" camp in Calais and move 9,000 migrants to reception centres across France.

    Setting out for the first time detailed plans to deal with the camp, Mr Hollande said migrants would be given up to four months to seek asylum.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37462767

    Woah. That almost sounds like a good idea. Presumably there's catch?
    The catch....In the end, he won't actually do it?
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    A 72% lead is a total spanking. So much for all those concerned Lefties joining Lab to rescue it from Corbynism.

    What were the percentages of the membership that these three groups constitute?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    We need Don Brind on here to explain how and why he got the mood and intention of Labour Party members so wrong
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,840
    edited September 2016
    MarkSenior said:

    We need Don Brind on here to explain how and why he got the mood and intention of Labour Party members so wrong

    Hope

    And we know it was because he hoped the things indicating Corbyn support were wrong.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,755
    DavidL said:

    The battle for the Labour Party has been lost. The battle for Britain must now begin.

    It will not be the walk in the park that many Tories seem to think. A divided and marginally competent government against a divided and incompetent opposition. Alien-v- Predator anyone?

    Labour's problems are an order of magnitude greater than the government's.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    surbiton said:

    Apparently, Owen Smith won the 18-24 year old's. I wouldn't have thought that. Also Scotland decisively and nearly London.

    All counter-intuitive except perhaps Scotland.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited September 2016
    MarkSenior said:

    We need Don Brind on here to explain how and why he got the mood and intention of Labour Party members so wrong

    He didn't. He was an official in the Smith campaign. Don Brind was a joke. Perhaps Mike gave him too much space. I hope he resigns from the party too !
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited September 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @MrTCHarris: Odd that no Labour MP is saying the blindingly obvious: that Labour is now two different, warring parties.

    I don't think Labour is in a worse position than in 1983. Partly because the Tories themselves are not united. When you read about Corbyn and Labour , Tories should be in the high 40's , if not 50's with the LD's at 6%. But they cannot do it.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,386
    DavidL said:

    The battle for the Labour Party has been lost. The battle for Britain must now begin.

    It will not be the walk in the park that many Tories seem to think. A divided and marginally competent government against a divided and incompetent opposition. Alien-v- Predator anyone?

    Ascribing too much murderous efficency to both perhaps.

    Ewoks v. Gremlins?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    What the bar chart above does not reveal is the size of each dataset, i.e. how many members in each category.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,755
    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:

    @MrTCHarris: Odd that no Labour MP is saying the blindingly obvious: that Labour is now two different, warring parties.

    I don't think Labour is in a worse position than in 1983. Partly because the Tories themselves are not united. When you read about Corbyn and Labour , Tories should be in the high 40's , if not 50's with the LD's at 6%. But they cannot do it.
    1983 is bad enough. This time round, though, the loons are in charge.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @rustinpeace00: The #GoodbyeLabour hashtag is a lot of fun. Normal, moderate people ripping up their membership cards now the hard Left is running the show.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Missed the new thread.

    Aaanyway.... has anyone actually resigned yet?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:

    @MrTCHarris: Odd that no Labour MP is saying the blindingly obvious: that Labour is now two different, warring parties.

    I don't think Labour is in a worse position than in 1983. Partly because the Tories themselves are not united. When you read about Corbyn and Labour , Tories should be in the high 40's , if not 50's with the LD's at 6%. But they cannot do it.
    1983 is bad enough. This time round, though, the loons are in charge.
    It works both ways. Some will leave the party, but just like Brexit, some non-voters [ 30% of the electorate ] will support Corbyn.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,423
    surbiton said:

    Apparently, Owen Smith won the 18-24 year old's. I wouldn't have thought that. Also Scotland decisively and nearly London.

    All counter-intuitive except perhaps Scotland.

    The would be Corbyn insurgents in Scotland support independence and therefore SNP or the Greens. Or to put it another way there are NO new Labour members in Scotland to vote for Corbyn.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,561
    Scott_P said:

    @rustinpeace00: The #GoodbyeLabour hashtag is a lot of fun. Normal, moderate people ripping up their membership cards now the hard Left is running the show.

    'How to leave Labour' becomes most searched for party-related question on Google - Indie
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    AndyJS said:

    Labour's candidate for Guildford in 2015:

    ttps://twitter.com/WindleshamRich/status/779639841562718208

    Can't really blame him. Not really sure that Surrey will be of much use to Labour for the next few years. Any posh lefties in Guildford will be Greens rather than Corbynites.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    surbiton said:

    What the bar chart above does not reveal is the size of each dataset, i.e. how many members in each category.

    Very good point.

    It does however lay Don Brind's point about the massive anti-Corbyn surge of new members completely to rest.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    What the bar chart above does not reveal is the size of each dataset, i.e. how many members in each category.

    Very good point.

    It does however lay Don Brind's point about the massive anti-Corbyn surge of new members completely to rest.
    He had a vested interest in saying so.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,386
    Photoshopping looks a bit ropey, but it still made me do a little bit of sick in my mouth.

    https://twitter.com/amolrajan/status/779590111000485888
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,985
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Missed the new thread.

    Aaanyway.... has anyone actually resigned yet?

    The problem for some will be their resignation statements, which were fairly excoriating of Corbyn and his (mis)management style. Corbyn hasn't changed, and they should explain how they feel they can remain given their earlier comments.

    For instance:
    http://www.liliangreenwood.co.uk/lilian_s_speech_to_nottingham_south_labour_party_members

    The party has moved away from them.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Divvie, not so sure it would've worked. For a few weeks, Remain tried adding 'Nigel Farage' to every line about leaving, and it just sounded weak.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,561


    Its official, its class war, this from a Momentum activist in Telegraph:

    "Owen Smith can talk Left, while Corbyn sounds all too moderate – but Smith “smells” like a man of the capitalist establishment, while Corbyn does not. Labour people are not stupid; we have a good sense of smell. And, at the end of the day, like it or not, antagonistic and clashing class interests do exist"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/24/as-a-member-of-momentum-let-me-explain-what-all-you-blairites-ha/

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,917
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Divvie, not so sure it would've worked. For a few weeks, Remain tried adding 'Nigel Farage' to every line about leaving, and it just sounded weak.

    Agreed. They needed to use Trump tactics against Boris and Gove to strike at the heart of the Leave campaign.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,928
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Photoshopping looks a bit ropey, but it still made me do a little bit of sick in my mouth.

    https://twitter.com/amolrajan/status/779590111000485888

    That would not have converted four in every 100 Leave voters to go Remain.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    What the bar chart above does not reveal is the size of each dataset, i.e. how many members in each category.

    Very good point.

    It does however lay Don Brind's point about the massive anti-Corbyn surge of new members completely to rest.
    He had a vested interest in saying so.
    I was told a curt 'No' by OGH when I suggested that Don was in the pay of the Smith campaign, so I decided not to mention it again!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,917
    Also Cameron should have agreed to a head-to-head debate with Boris Johnson and tried to turn it into a referendum on who would be PM.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,917
    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    What the bar chart above does not reveal is the size of each dataset, i.e. how many members in each category.

    Very good point.

    It does however lay Don Brind's point about the massive anti-Corbyn surge of new members completely to rest.
    He had a vested interest in saying so.
    I was told a curt 'No' by OGH when I suggested that Don was in the pay of the Smith campaign, so I decided not to mention it again!
    I find it hard to believe Smith could afford to pay campaign staff, even if he had some.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    rcs1000 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Photoshopping looks a bit ropey, but it still made me do a little bit of sick in my mouth.

    https://twitter.com/amolrajan/status/779590111000485888

    That would not have converted four in every 100 Leave voters to go Remain.
    Incompetent photoshopping (neck a mile long), and I don't know whether I'd be more offended by the suggestion I do iffy one night stands or that you would ever find me in a room with wallpaper like that. Seriously, this would have been a net vote loser.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,561
    Have the LibDems put on an extra phone bank this afternoon to take all the new membership calls?
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Where are their guts?

    Tim Montgomerie ن ‏@montie 5h5 hours ago
    Surely if Lab MPs had guts we'll soon see @OwenSmith_MP, @ChukaUmunna, @YvetteCooperMP, @PaddyAshdown, @TimFarron announce a new movement...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296
    williamglenn said:

    Also Cameron should have agreed to a head-to-head debate with Boris Johnson and tried to turn it into a referendum on who would be PM.

    Now that would have signalled they thought they were in trouble!
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited September 2016
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Photoshopping looks a bit ropey, but it still made me do a little bit of sick in my mouth. (Pic of Farage)

    https://twitter.com/amolrajan/

    Chap who headed up a paper that went bankrupt.......
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    williamglenn said:

    Also Cameron should have agreed to a head-to-head debate with Boris Johnson and tried to turn it into a referendum on who would be PM.

    Boris was getting better ratings than Cameron so more likely to have widened LEAVE's victory.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,840
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Where are their guts?

    Tim Montgomerie ن ‏@montie 5h5 hours ago
    Surely if Lab MPs had guts we'll soon see @OwenSmith_MP, @ChukaUmunna, @YvetteCooperMP, @PaddyAshdown, @TimFarron announce a new movement...

    Not sure the LDs really match what those Labour people want either, to be honest. But it hardly matters. That would be too hard to face emotionally and too hard practically even if the LDs were amendable to such an official movement. Labour is always best, even when it is no longer the Labour they say they want. After all, in contrast to some Corbynistas, their whole thing is that an imperfect Labour is better than Tory government.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/matthewlumby/status/779709544192704512
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:

    @MrTCHarris: Odd that no Labour MP is saying the blindingly obvious: that Labour is now two different, warring parties.

    I don't think Labour is in a worse position than in 1983. Partly because the Tories themselves are not united. When you read about Corbyn and Labour , Tories should be in the high 40's , if not 50's with the LD's at 6%. But they cannot do it.
    In 1982 the Conservative govt was wets vs drys with plottings to remove Thatcher. Labour at least had moderate large unions and their cash. Today the Conservatives have the plotters outside government, whereas Labour has the hard left running Labour and running the major unions. A far far worse situation for Labour.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/779704194882306049
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Missed the new thread.

    Aaanyway.... has anyone actually resigned yet?

    "Do Nothing" Tories Labour MPs!
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    surbiton said:

    MarkSenior said:

    We need Don Brind on here to explain how and why he got the mood and intention of Labour Party members so wrong

    He didn't. He was an official in the Smith campaign. Don Brind was a joke. Perhaps Mike gave him too much space. I hope he resigns from the party too !
    Does Don Brind exist or is he one of Mr Smithson Sr's more elaborate click bait ruses?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,561
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/779704194882306049

    This +10 for Smith for 18-24 year olds, just does not feel right to me, given all we have heard about the youth rallying to Corbyn and the scenes at his appearances.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,840
    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/779704194882306049

    This +10 for Smith for 18-24 year olds, just does not feel right to me, given all we have heard about the youth rallying to Corbyn and the scenes at his appearances.
    I guess pro-Remain young voters turned out more than socialist corbynista youngsters?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    rcs1000 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Photoshopping looks a bit ropey, but it still made me do a little bit of sick in my mouth.

    https://twitter.com/amolrajan/status/779590111000485888

    That would not have converted four in every 100 Leave voters to go Remain.
    I like photoshopping too:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/743095912315146240
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,561
    Momentum Stats Dept ‏@MomentumStats 13m13 minutes ago
    Of course England will win the next World Cup. Have you seen how many people come to our matches?! #LabourLeadership #Lab16 #GoodbyeLabour
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/779704194882306049

    This +10 for Smith for 18-24 year olds, just does not feel right to me, given all we have heard about the youth rallying to Corbyn and the scenes at his appearances.
    Seems off to me as well. As not just what we heard...watch the rallies for the Messiah, there are loads of youngsters topped up with some crusty old trots.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    AndyJS said:

    Labour's candidate for Guildford in 2015:

    https://twitter.com/WindleshamRich/status/779639841562718208

    Richard Wilson = Victor Meldrew: "I don't believe it!"
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Photoshopping looks a bit ropey, but it still made me do a little bit of sick in my mouth.

    https://twitter.com/amolrajan/status/779590111000485888

    I like photoshopping too:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/741743746123960320
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,561
    kle4 said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/779704194882306049

    This +10 for Smith for 18-24 year olds, just does not feel right to me, given all we have heard about the youth rallying to Corbyn and the scenes at his appearances.
    I guess pro-Remain young voters turned out more than socialist corbynista youngsters?
    Mind you the vote was outside term time so the student Corbynista was probably too busy inter-railing or whatever to actually vote in this one.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    rottenborough said:

    kle4 said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/779704194882306049

    This +10 for Smith for 18-24 year olds, just does not feel right to me, given all we have heard about the youth rallying to Corbyn and the scenes at his appearances.
    I guess pro-Remain young voters turned out more than socialist corbynista youngsters?
    Mind you the vote was outside term time so the student Corbynista was probably too busy inter-railing or whatever to actually vote in this one.
    Given following Brexit no youngster will ever be able to inter-rail every again, they are probably taking the chance while they can....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,561
    MTimT said:

    surbiton said:

    MarkSenior said:

    We need Don Brind on here to explain how and why he got the mood and intention of Labour Party members so wrong

    He didn't. He was an official in the Smith campaign. Don Brind was a joke. Perhaps Mike gave him too much space. I hope he resigns from the party too !
    Does Don Brind exist or is he one of Mr Smithson Sr's more elaborate click bait ruses?
    I'm sure I've seen him being interviewed on TV (Don Brind that is)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,917
    tlg86 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Also Cameron should have agreed to a head-to-head debate with Boris Johnson and tried to turn it into a referendum on who would be PM.

    Now that would have signalled they thought they were in trouble!
    They were, and should have done a better job of showing it. All the polls showed that people thought remain would win which gave them a risk free protest vote.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,561
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    kle4 said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/779704194882306049

    This +10 for Smith for 18-24 year olds, just does not feel right to me, given all we have heard about the youth rallying to Corbyn and the scenes at his appearances.
    I guess pro-Remain young voters turned out more than socialist corbynista youngsters?
    Mind you the vote was outside term time so the student Corbynista was probably too busy inter-railing or whatever to actually vote in this one.
    Given following Brexit no youngster will ever be able to inter-rail every again, they are probably taking the chance while they can....
    Seriously? Is Inter-rail an EU thing. I thought it was older than that. I confess I did it as a student. Bloody brilliant.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited September 2016
    rottenborough said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    kle4 said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/779704194882306049

    This +10 for Smith for 18-24 year olds, just does not feel right to me, given all we have heard about the youth rallying to Corbyn and the scenes at his appearances.
    I guess pro-Remain young voters turned out more than socialist corbynista youngsters?
    Mind you the vote was outside term time so the student Corbynista was probably too busy inter-railing or whatever to actually vote in this one.
    Given following Brexit no youngster will ever be able to inter-rail every again, they are probably taking the chance while they can....
    Seriously? Is Inter-rail an EU thing. I thought it was older than that. I confess I did it as a student. Bloody brilliant.
    Remember during the campaign.....lets be generous and say that it was mis-explained...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/03/29/nicky-morgan-young-people-will-no-longer-be-able-to-go-inter-rai/

    [For the record, I think The Telegraph is a little unfair spinning her comments, but at the same time her comments were rather silly]
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/matthewlumby/status/779709544192704512

    Brilliant!! :+1:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,561
    Green Party officially welcomes Corbyn's win:

    https://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2016/09/24/green-party-leaders-react-to-corbyn-victory-and-call-on-him-to-make-a-pact-to-beat-the-conservatives/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    AndyJS said:

    The 2020 Labour target list with the proposed new boundaries:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10EJPl37xhc_B_TkHObNrahfzZBCFU4TW8MM_QB3PaXE/edit#gid=0

    An excellent piece from AndyJS that got lost at the back end of the last thread - and is worthy of a thread of its own: the sheer scale of the Himalayan mountain range that Labour needs to scale to be relevant again.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,386
    edited September 2016
    Theresa May has a sense of humour!

    https://twitter.com/HolyroodDaily/status/779700399481774080

    So has Kipper Princess Di!

    'UKIP leader says Brexit is 'win-win' for Scotland'

    http://tinyurl.com/hs6tkqd
  • William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Theresa May has a sense of humour!

    https://twitter.com/HolyroodDaily/status/779700399481774080

    Well, their supporters weren't any more likely to vote yes than Labour IIRC, and everyone wanted to blame Corbyn
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    edited September 2016
    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/779704194882306049

    This +10 for Smith for 18-24 year olds, just does not feel right to me, given all we have heard about the youth rallying to Corbyn and the scenes at his appearances.
    The youngest demographic were the most pro EU that is probably why, they felt betrayed by Corbyn in EUref. 25 to 39 year olds were the strongest age group for Corbyn though
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296
    edited September 2016
    How many 18-24 year olds are there in the selectorate? From my experience my lefty friends didn't start getting political until after the age of 25. Could it be that there aren't that many 18-24 year olds in the party and those that are come from traditional Lanour supporting families?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Photoshopping looks a bit ropey, but it still made me do a little bit of sick in my mouth.

    https://twitter.com/amolrajan/status/779590111000485888

    I like photoshopping too:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/741743746123960320
    Sunil capturing the national mood again. Of course, it was your "Be Leave!" slogan, stolen by the Sun, that won it for Leave.

    I hope that is on your CV.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    rcs1000 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Photoshopping looks a bit ropey, but it still made me do a little bit of sick in my mouth.

    https://twitter.com/amolrajan/status/779590111000485888

    That would not have converted four in every 100 Leave voters to go Remain.
    Especially as many white working class Leave voters like Farage
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    MarqueeMark said:

    AndyJS said:

    The 2020 Labour target list with the proposed new boundaries:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10EJPl37xhc_B_TkHObNrahfzZBCFU4TW8MM_QB3PaXE/edit#gid=0

    An excellent piece from AndyJS that got lost at the back end of the last thread - and is worthy of a thread of its own: the sheer scale of the Himalayan mountain range that Labour needs to scale to be relevant again.
    That's a LOT of work, thanks @AndyJS and agree it should have its own thread.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,561
    MarqueeMark said:

    AndyJS said:

    The 2020 Labour target list with the proposed new boundaries:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10EJPl37xhc_B_TkHObNrahfzZBCFU4TW8MM_QB3PaXE/edit#gid=0

    An excellent piece from AndyJS that got lost at the back end of the last thread - and is worthy of a thread of its own: the sheer scale of the Himalayan mountain range that Labour needs to scale to be relevant again.
    Great stuff. Of course ever seat needs a swing from Tory to Labour. The more interesting list is the other one.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,386
    William_H said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Theresa May has a sense of humour!

    https://twitter.com/HolyroodDaily/status/779700399481774080

    Well, their supporters weren't any more likely to vote yes than Labour IIRC, and everyone wanted to blame Corbyn
    But much more likey to vote remain that the supporters of the party of 'Remain supporting' (ho, ho) Tessie May.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    MTimT said:

    surbiton said:

    MarkSenior said:

    We need Don Brind on here to explain how and why he got the mood and intention of Labour Party members so wrong

    He didn't. He was an official in the Smith campaign. Don Brind was a joke. Perhaps Mike gave him too much space. I hope he resigns from the party too !
    Does Don Brind exist or is he one of Mr Smithson Sr's more elaborate click bait ruses?
    I thought he might be an anagram, but actually he yields only the disappointing "rind bond".
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    A big advantage Labour has is that something must be the prime opposition. Right now UKIP and the Lib Dems aren't in a position to take advantage. If the yellows still had sixty odd MPs or UKIP had gained a number last time, the reds would be in a far worse electoral position.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    rottenborough said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AndyJS said:

    The 2020 Labour target list with the proposed new boundaries:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10EJPl37xhc_B_TkHObNrahfzZBCFU4TW8MM_QB3PaXE/edit#gid=0

    An excellent piece from AndyJS that got lost at the back end of the last thread - and is worthy of a thread of its own: the sheer scale of the Himalayan mountain range that Labour needs to scale to be relevant again.
    Great stuff. Of course ever seat needs a swing from Tory to Labour. The more interesting list is the other one.
    Would it be too much to ask AndyJS to provide the Labour losses to Tories list too? Pretty please?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    Morris_Dancer said:

    A big advantage Labour has is that something must be the prime opposition. Right now UKIP and the Lib Dems aren't in a position to take advantage. If the yellows still had sixty odd MPs or UKIP had gained a number last time, the reds would be in a far worse electoral position.

    True but my guess is May will be far more concerned about Diane James in terms of the 2020 general election than she is about Corbyn or Farron
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    HYUFD said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/779704194882306049

    This +10 for Smith for 18-24 year olds, just does not feel right to me, given all we have heard about the youth rallying to Corbyn and the scenes at his appearances.
    The youngest demographic were the most pro EU that is probably why, they felt betrayed by Corbyn in EUref. 25 to 39 year olds were the strongest age group for Corbyn though
    Similarly, Smith did reasonably well in London and with ABC1s, Corbyn with more "traditionally Labour" C2DEs. Not sure if the "europhiles against Corbyn" idea is correct, but that's at least consistent with it.

    So much for the idea of Corbynism being a London-centric middle-class student takeover of the Labour party. Though judging from the stats for prior members, it is a takeover of some kind or another.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    What the bar chart above does not reveal is the size of each dataset, i.e. how many members in each category.

    Very good point.

    It does however lay Don Brind's point about the massive anti-Corbyn surge of new members completely to rest.
    He had a vested interest in saying so.
    I was told a curt 'No' by OGH when I suggested that Don was in the pay of the Smith campaign, so I decided not to mention it again!
    He was a volunteer and therefore not in their pay!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    What the bar chart above does not reveal is the size of each dataset, i.e. how many members in each category.

    Very good point.

    It does however lay Don Brind's point about the massive anti-Corbyn surge of new members completely to rest.
    He had a vested interest in saying so.
    I was told a curt 'No' by OGH when I suggested that Don was in the pay of the Smith campaign, so I decided not to mention it again!
    He was a volunteer and therefore not in their pay!
    Whatever his standing, I hope no-one here was mug enough to be taken in by his "too close to call" bollocks.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    edited September 2016
    MyBurningEars said:

    HYUFD said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/779704194882306049

    This +10 for Smith for 18-24 year olds, just does not feel right to me, given all we have heard about the youth rallying to Corbyn and the scenes at his appearances.
    The youngest demographic were the most pro EU that is probably why, they felt betrayed by Corbyn in EUref. 25 to 39 year olds were the strongest age group for Corbyn though
    Similarly, Smith did reasonably well in London and with ABC1s, Corbyn with more "traditionally Labour" C2DEs. Not sure if the "europhiles against Corbyn" idea is correct, but that's at least consistent with it.

    So much for the idea of Corbynism being a London-centric middle-class student takeover of the Labour party. Though judging from the stats for prior members, it is a takeover of some kind or another.
    London clearly not as strong for Corbyn as for Ed Miliband it would now seem, Owen Smith was Ed Miliband and Sadiq Khan's candidate and May could even make a few gains in London at the next election in outer London areas like Ilford North, Enfield North, Brentford and Ealing Central Miliband gained at the last election (though inner London should still be strong Corbyn territory on the whole)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited September 2016
    Matt on point...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2016/09/24/2509-MATT-GALLERY-WEB-P1-large_trans++qVzuuqpFlyLIwiB6NTmJwfSVWeZ_vEN7c6bHu2jJnT8.png
  • William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346
    Looks like the anti-Corbynista Labourites will need to find a way to ban women members if they're to win next years election
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/23/us/washington-mall-shooting/index.html

    Looks like Isis are really getting involved in the Presidential race.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    "It was the newcomers into the party wot did it"

    Corbyn should rename the party New Labour.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    MarqueeMark said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    What the bar chart above does not reveal is the size of each dataset, i.e. how many members in each category.

    Very good point.

    It does however lay Don Brind's point about the massive anti-Corbyn surge of new members completely to rest.
    He had a vested interest in saying so.
    I was told a curt 'No' by OGH when I suggested that Don was in the pay of the Smith campaign, so I decided not to mention it again!
    He was a volunteer and therefore not in their pay!
    Whatever his standing, I hope no-one here was mug enough to be taken in by his "too close to call" bollocks.
    One person was taken in. Don Brind.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited September 2016
    nunu said:

    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/23/us/washington-mall-shooting/index.html

    Looks like Isis are really getting involved in the Presidential race.

    FBI: 'No Indication' That Washington State Mall Shooting Was 'Terrorist Act'

    They say they are looking for a Hispanic man.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    edited September 2016
    Ted Cruz endorsement of Donald Trump now official

    "After many months of careful consideration, of prayer and searching my own conscience, I have decided that on Election Day, I will vote for the Republican nominee, Donald Trump. I’ve made this decision for two reasons. First, last year, I promised to support the Republican nominee. And I intend to keep my word.
    Second, even though I have had areas of significant disagreement with our nominee, by any measure Hillary Clinton is wholly unacceptable — that’s why I have always been #NeverHillary....We also have seen, over the past few weeks and months, a Trump campaign focusing more and more on freedom — including emphasizing school choice and the power of economic growth to lift African-Americans and Hispanics to prosperity....Our country is in crisis. Hillary Clinton is manifestly unfit to be president, and her policies would harm millions of Americans. And Donald Trump is the only thing standing in her way.
    A year ago, I pledged to endorse the Republican nominee, and I am honoring that commitment. And if you don’t want to see a Hillary Clinton presidency, I encourage you to vote for him."
    https://www.facebook.com/tedcruzpage/posts/10154476728267464

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/779660413000617985
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    "It was the newcomers into the party wot did it"

    Corbyn should rename the party New Labour.

    very good

  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    HYUFD said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    A big advantage Labour has is that something must be the prime opposition. Right now UKIP and the Lib Dems aren't in a position to take advantage. If the yellows still had sixty odd MPs or UKIP had gained a number last time, the reds would be in a far worse electoral position.

    True but my guess is May will be far more concerned about Diane James in terms of the 2020 general election than she is about Corbyn or Farron
    Mrs May can invoke Article 50 in March and go into the local election campaign of 2017 on a wave to gain seats from Labour and UKIP. It will also restrict the ability of LDs to gain hundreds at a time that they need to be making progress. Possibly keep LD gains to under 100 and also put pressure on Farron.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited September 2016
    tyson said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    "It was the newcomers into the party wot did it"

    Corbyn should rename the party New Labour.

    very good

    When I lived in NZ in the Eighties, there was a breakaway left wing faction from the centrist Labour Party called New Labour.

  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    William_H said:

    Looks like the anti-Corbynista Labourites will need to find a way to ban women members if they're to win next years election

    Together with her superior record of actually having done something at some point, this is a factor that makes me think Eagle could have done better than Smith. Would have lost, obviously, but the narrative would be different if Corbyn's lead had been chipped down rather than extended from first time out.

    There was a largely sympathetic interview with Smith in the Mirror in which he claimed he was a natural leader because he'd pulled his wife despite competition from hundreds of men...

    Add to that the "smashing" May comment and various others, and it wasn't exactly a woman-friendly campaign from Smith.

    Wonder if Guido will quit his investigative muck-raking into misogyny and nepotism at BBC Cardiff in recent decades.


  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Off topic: LCFC

    PL Home:
    7/9 points 1 goal conceded, 5 scored, 2 clean sheets

    PL Away:
    0/9 points, 10 goals conceded, 3 scored, no clean sheets

    Next PL away games: Chelsea and Spurs. Oh dear. At least we have 3 weeks to prepare...
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Arse 3 Chelski 0 1st half still running.
    Chelsea's defence with Cahill and Luis is appalling. No surprise.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    nunu said:

    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/23/us/washington-mall-shooting/index.html

    Looks like Isis are really getting involved in the Presidential race.

    Looks like it was in a 'No Gun Zone' - if so then there are political consequences.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    HYUFD said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    A big advantage Labour has is that something must be the prime opposition. Right now UKIP and the Lib Dems aren't in a position to take advantage. If the yellows still had sixty odd MPs or UKIP had gained a number last time, the reds would be in a far worse electoral position.

    True but my guess is May will be far more concerned about Diane James in terms of the 2020 general election than she is about Corbyn or Farron
    Mrs May can invoke Article 50 in March and go into the local election campaign of 2017 on a wave to gain seats from Labour and UKIP. It will also restrict the ability of LDs to gain hundreds at a time that they need to be making progress. Possibly keep LD gains to under 100 and also put pressure on Farron.
    Indeed, the local elections next year are mainly in English County Councils ie ideal territory for May and with few metropolitan areas up little for Corbyn to be able to claim he has made progress
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    HYUFD said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    HYUFD said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/779704194882306049

    This +10 for Smith for 18-24 year olds, just does not feel right to me, given all we have heard about the youth rallying to Corbyn and the scenes at his appearances.
    The youngest demographic were the most pro EU that is probably why, they felt betrayed by Corbyn in EUref. 25 to 39 year olds were the strongest age group for Corbyn though
    Similarly, Smith did reasonably well in London and with ABC1s, Corbyn with more "traditionally Labour" C2DEs. Not sure if the "europhiles against Corbyn" idea is correct, but that's at least consistent with it.

    So much for the idea of Corbynism being a London-centric middle-class student takeover of the Labour party. Though judging from the stats for prior members, it is a takeover of some kind or another.
    London clearly not as strong for Corbyn as for Ed Miliband it would now seem, Owen Smith was Ed Miliband and Sadiq Khan's candidate and May could even make a few gains in London at the next election in outer London areas like Ilford North, Enfield North, Brentford and Ealing Central Miliband gained at the last election (though inner London should still be strong Corbyn territory on the whole)
    That raises an interesting question. Labour are already almost wiped out in southern england outside London. Their strongholds used to be
    1. London
    2. Scotland
    3. North
    4. Wales
    With Scotland gone, Wales sliding down, the North vulnerable to UKIP and even London starting to look split, Labour may be reaching a tipping point to a major slump at the next GE since they could have no heartland.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,985
    Ishmael_X said:

    MTimT said:

    surbiton said:

    MarkSenior said:

    We need Don Brind on here to explain how and why he got the mood and intention of Labour Party members so wrong

    He didn't. He was an official in the Smith campaign. Don Brind was a joke. Perhaps Mike gave him too much space. I hope he resigns from the party too !
    Does Don Brind exist or is he one of Mr Smithson Sr's more elaborate click bait ruses?
    I thought he might be an anagram, but actually he yields only the disappointing "rind bond".
    If his full name's Donald Brind, you can get "Darn Old Bind", which adequately sums up Labour's situation.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited September 2016
    I see the useless "dr" tweets are all about clean slate & moving on as a united party.ontbe sdon't illy it us all.about ringing if the election & can never forgive or forget the plotters...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    edited September 2016
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    HYUFD said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    HYUFD said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/779704194882306049

    This +10 for Smith for 18-24 year olds, just does not feel right to me, given all we have heard about the youth rallying to Corbyn and the scenes at his appearances.
    The youngest demographic were the most pro EU that is probably why, they felt betrayed by Corbyn in EUref. 25 to 39 year olds were the strongest age group for Corbyn though
    Similarly, Smith did reasonably well in London and with ABC1s, Corbyn with more "traditionally Labour" C2DEs. Not sure if the "europhiles against Corbyn" idea is correct, but that's at least consistent with it.

    So much for the idea of Corbynism being a London-centric middle-class student takeover of the Labour party. Though judging from the stats for prior members, it is a takeover of some kind or another.
    London clearly not as strong for Corbyn as for Ed Miliband it would now seem, Owen Smith was Ed Miliband and Sadiq Khan's candidate and May could even make a few gains in London at the next election in outer London areas like Ilford North, Enfield North, Brentford and Ealing Central Miliband gained at the last election (though inner London should still be strong Corbyn territory on the whole)
    That raises an interesting question. Labour are already almost wiped out in southern england outside London. Their strongholds used to be
    1. London
    2. Scotland
    3. North
    4. Wales
    With Scotland gone, Wales sliding down, the North vulnerable to UKIP and even London starting to look split, Labour may be reaching a tipping point to a major slump at the next GE since they could have no heartland.
    The main question at the next election is whether Labour fall below the 209 seats Foot got in 1983 or not, Corbyn is almost certain to lose some of the 232 seats Ed Miliband got in 2015, indeed he has already done even worse in Scotland than Ed did and looks likely to do worse in London too. May 2015 was not Labour's lowpoint
This discussion has been closed.