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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dreadful set of local election results overnight sees CON lose 4 – their worst performance since TMay became leader

LD GAIN Hadleigh on Suffolk CC from CON. The 3rd LD gain this week and 4th CON loss of night

Read the full story here

Sandpit

1st!

tlg86

And it's a terrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrible night for the Tories!

IanB2

third like Labour

Morris_Dancer

FPT: I know there are one or two gamers here, so hope you don't mind me linking to a piece I wrote, rambling about the failure of the PS4 Pro:
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2016/09/ps4-pro-why-it-has-already-failed.html

Mortimer

Fpt:

MaxPB said:

MarkSenior said:

Scott_P said:

@britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
CON: 39% (+1)
LAB: 30% (-1)
UKIP: 13% (-)
LDEM: 8% (+1)
(via YouGov / 19 - 21 Sep)

Meanwhile in the real world . All September council by elections so far ( 36,000 voters )

Con 26.4% minus 3.3%
Lab 29.6% minus 3.3%
LDem 21.4% plus 12.0%
UKIP 12.8% minus 1.5%
Green 3.1% minus 3.4%
Nat 4.6% plus 1.5%
Oth 2.1% minus 2.1%

How did the by election forecasting model work last time, did it predict 8 seats for the Lib Dems?

Mr Max, you missed *innocent face* off that last post, my irony meter tells me....

Scott_P

@SamCoatesTimes: Jim O'Neil - who was handpicked by Osborne to be Treasury minister i/c China and Northern Powerhouse - quits suddenly

Scott_P

Meanwhile

@IanDunt: The Osborne speech is genuinely very good. If Labour had even a tiddly trace of responsibility, they'd be making these arguments every day. twitter.com/lottiement/sta…

JosiasJessop

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

Jonathan

Tories need to start getting used to council losses.

not_on_fire

Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important here but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time. Bearing in mind that even parliamentary by-elections are a poor predictor of what happens at the GE even not very far out, cf Rochester and Eastleigh.

IanB2

FPT on LibDem poll ratings - worth remembering that the 'typical' pre-coalition pattern for the Libs/LibDems was a midterm poll rating than bounced around the 12-15% mark, which typically rose towards 20% as an election campaign got underway. They tended to be ignored when they weren't in the spotlight; conversely getting some publicity did them a huge favour (cf. Cleggmania).

The good news therefore is that ratings of 8-10%, whilst low, aren't completely off the scale as far as past experience is concerned.

The bad news is that, having been driven so low in parliament and with new competitors for being (treated as) the third party, the LibDems are unlikely to get so much exposure as previously, even during a GE.

logical_song

not_on_fire said:

Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time.

Parish elections aren't included.
I seem to have posted this before.

Mortimer

Scott_P said:

@SamCoatesTimes: Jim O'Neil - who was handpicked by Osborne to be Treasury minister i/c China and Northern Powerhouse - quits suddenly

Given China and Northern Powerhouse seem to be less high up the agenda than under Osbo, I can't say this is a huge surprise. Shame though, as he is talented.

logical_song

Jonathan said:

Tories need to start getting used to council losses.

Labour too.

Luckyguy1983

Mortimer said:

Scott_P said:

@SamCoatesTimes: Jim O'Neil - who was handpicked by Osborne to be Treasury minister i/c China and Northern Powerhouse - quits suddenly

Given China and Northern Powerhouse seem to be less high up the agenda than under Osbo, I can't say this is a huge surprise. Shame though, as he is talented.

I'm hoping it's the beginning of a full scale (all 10 of them) Cameronite rebellion. Be good to get it crushed and out of the way early on.

MaxPB

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/22/look-at-the-evidence-not-the-economists-for-the-effects-of-the-b/

Not fun reading for anyone in forecasting. He's right though, the economic establishment has been wrong on every major call.

logical_song

Mortimer said:

Fpt:

MaxPB said:

MarkSenior said:

Scott_P said:

@britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
CON: 39% (+1)
LAB: 30% (-1)
UKIP: 13% (-)
LDEM: 8% (+1)
(via YouGov / 19 - 21 Sep)

Meanwhile in the real world . All September council by elections so far ( 36,000 voters )

Con 26.4% minus 3.3%
Lab 29.6% minus 3.3%
LDem 21.4% plus 12.0%
UKIP 12.8% minus 1.5%
Green 3.1% minus 3.4%
Nat 4.6% plus 1.5%
Oth 2.1% minus 2.1%

How did the by election forecasting model work last time, did it predict 8 seats for the Lib Dems?

Mr Max, you missed *innocent face* off that last post, my irony meter tells me....

It predicted losses, just not as many as actually occurred. Maybe the reverse is also true.

HurstLlama

Picking up on the grammar pendant discussion from this morning, I have just noticed that this site's title bar includes the expression " Britain's most-read political blog...".

"most-read", is that correct? Should there be a hyphen there? I should have thought the, "most read" would be the correct form.

Mortimer

Luckyguy1983 said:

Mortimer said:

Scott_P said:

@SamCoatesTimes: Jim O'Neil - who was handpicked by Osborne to be Treasury minister i/c China and Northern Powerhouse - quits suddenly

Given China and Northern Powerhouse seem to be less high up the agenda than under Osbo, I can't say this is a huge surprise. Shame though, as he is talented.

I'm hoping it's the beginning of a full scale (all 10 of them) Cameronite rebellion. Be good to get it crushed and out of the way early on.

My favourite post Cameron floated idea was still the notion that Nicky Morgan might run for the leadership. Just bizarre. Only funnier suggestion would have been Matt Hancock...

IanB2

logical_song said:

not_on_fire said:

Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time.

Parish elections aren't included.
I seem to have posted this before.

I think the honest answer is that for any individual contest the local circumstances (candidates, issues, circumstances of the vacancy, extent of campaigning) far outweigh national voting trends, BUT it is much easier to win a by-election when the national tide is in your favour, and not to when it isn't. Hence the aggregate trend of local by-elections is telling us something.

My read is that the recent trend is an early indicator that the Tories are moving towards a spell of mid-term unpopularity and that voters are willing to given alternatives a chance, that Corbynism works in some areas of the country but doesn't in others (broadly urban yes, suburban/rural no), and that voters are now willing to give the LibDems a chance in areas where they have a presence, in a way that they weren't a few years back.

HurstLlama

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.

rcs1000

Scott_P said:

@SamCoatesTimes: Jim O'Neil - who was handpicked by Osborne to be Treasury minister i/c China and Northern Powerhouse - quits suddenly

I used to work with Jim in research at Goldman, and he's a very serious guy.

rcs1000

not_on_fire said:

Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important here but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time. Bearing in mind that even parliamentary by-elections are a poor predictor of what happens at the GE even not very far out, cf Rochester and Eastleigh.

For the LibDems they matter in two ways: Firstly, they create an activist base. People campaign in the local council by-election, then they go campaign (for example) in Witney. Secondly, they cheer people (like OGH) up.

Now, none of these things automatically translate into votes in the General Election. By-elections wins, I would argue are a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for a more general recovery.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/779276550642528257

MarkSenior

IanB2 said:

logical_song said:

not_on_fire said:

Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time.

Parish elections aren't included.
I seem to have posted this before.

I think the honest answer is that for any individual contest the local circumstances (candidates, issues, circumstances of the vacancy, extent of campaigning) far outweigh national voting trends, BUT it is much easier to win a by-election when the national tide is in your favour, and not to when it isn't. Hence the aggregate trend of local by-elections is telling us something.

My read is that the recent trend is an early indicator that the Tories are moving towards a spell of mid-term unpopularity and that voters are willing to given alternatives a chance, that Corbynism works in some areas of the country but doesn't in others (broadly urban yes, suburban/rural no), and that voters are now willing to give the LibDems a chance in areas where they have a presence, in a way that they weren't a few years back.

A sensible and reasonable analysis - well done .

MaxPB

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.

Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.

Sean_F

not_on_fire said:

Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important here but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time. Bearing in mind that even parliamentary by-elections are a poor predictor of what happens at the GE even not very far out, cf Rochester and Eastleigh.

They tell you something, but it's not always clear what that something is.

The Tories are starting to lose quite a lot of seats, and the Lib Dems are starting to gain quite a lot of seats. *But* the Tories currently hold 43% of all local council seats, and the Lib Dems hold 9%. The former is a high figure for a government in its 7th year, while the latter is a low figure for the Lib Dems (back in 2010, they held about 20% of council seats). To a large extend, the Lib Dems are taking back the low-hanging fruit, rather like the gains the Conservatives made from Labour in 1997-2000.

Labour are still becalmed, not having made a net gain at all.

CD13

Rejoice, Mr Smithson, our cracked pavements will be in good hands.

JonathanD

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye

Ever heard of the phrase 'BRIC'?

May has gained Davis, Fox and Johnson and lost O'Neil. That's not a good trade.

I wonder if he is planning to run for Manchester Mayor though.

Scott_P

With the Northern Powerhouse looking less likely, and hard Brexit more likely, George Osborne does seem to be positioning himself as the "I told you so" candidate.

And winning praise from lefties in doing so.

HurstLlama

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.

Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.

But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?

MaxPB

Another of his wins was the national centre for excellence in graphene technologies for Manchester. I don't think it would have happened without him.

Mortimer

Scott_P said:

With the Northern Powerhouse looking less likely, and hard Brexit more likely, George Osborne does seem to be positioning himself as the "I told you so" candidate.

And winning praise from lefties in doing so.

Relatively high risk for Osborne - I thought it was Cameron who liked a political gamble....

rcs1000

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.

Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.

But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?

He's an economist, not a banker.

Scott_P

Coral are offering 20/1 about Osborne next Tory leader.

I'm on...

MaxPB

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.

Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.

But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?

The graphene centre, for one. Plus he has advocated for a proper industrial strategy in the North just as you and I would. As I said, he's not someone the government should be losing so easily. I think it may have been jis China obsession that did it.

NickPalmer

IanB2 said:

logical_song said:

not_on_fire said:

Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time.

Parish elections aren't included.
I seem to have posted this before.

I think the honest answer is that for any individual contest the local circumstances (candidates, issues, circumstances of the vacancy, extent of campaigning) far outweigh national voting trends, BUT it is much easier to win a by-election when the national tide is in your favour, and not to when it isn't. Hence the aggregate trend of local by-elections is telling us something.

My read is that the recent trend is an early indicator that the Tories are moving towards a spell of mid-term unpopularity and that voters are willing to given alternatives a chance, that Corbynism works in some areas of the country but doesn't in others (broadly urban yes, suburban/rural no), and that voters are now willing to give the LibDems a chance in areas where they have a presence, in a way that they weren't a few years back.

Good post.

IanB2

Sean_F said:

not_on_fire said:

Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important here but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time. Bearing in mind that even parliamentary by-elections are a poor predictor of what happens at the GE even not very far out, cf Rochester and Eastleigh.

They tell you something, but it's not always clear what that something is.

The Tories are starting to lose quite a lot of seats, and the Lib Dems are starting to gain quite a lot of seats. *But* the Tories currently hold 43% of all local council seats, and the Lib Dems hold 9%. The former is a high figure for a government in its 7th year, while the latter is a low figure for the Lib Dems (back in 2010, they held about 20% of council seats). To a large extend, the Lib Dems are taking back the low-hanging fruit, rather like the gains the Conservatives made from Labour in 1997-2000.

Labour are still becalmed, not having made a net gain at all.

I agree but would bring in a point I made downthread - Labour's position is actually more nuanced than "becalmed", which simply reflects the average. Labour is actually polling well in cities, especially London, where I think there is a strong appeal particularly to younger private sector tenants, but is chalking up some appalling results elsewhere.

619

New US polls

National

Marist:

Clinton 48
Trump 41

AP

Clinton 45
Trump 35
Johnson 9

Big gap for Trump there. Third poll in 2 days with Clinton with a 6+ national lead with LV's

Jobabob

Scott_P said:

With the Northern Powerhouse looking less likely, and hard Brexit more likely, George Osborne does seem to be positioning himself as the "I told you so" candidate.

And winning praise from lefties in doing so.

Yes he comes across as a statesman who cares about his country - and has no confidence in the three clowns charged with delivering Brexit. I've warmed to him.

HurstLlama

JonathanD said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye

Ever heard of the phrase 'BRIC'?

May has gained Davis, Fox and Johnson and lost O'Neil. That's not a good trade.

I wonder if he is planning to run for Manchester Mayor though.

Mr. D.,

"BRIC" yes I have have heard of the term. These were the tiger economies who where going to drive the world forward and become the economic power houses of the modern age. Brazil, Russia, India and China.

What that has got to do with this chap O'Neil, I am not so sure. Was he the chap that coined the term, made the prophecy? In which case I am even less sure that he is a loss. As noted up thread most economists have gotten every major call wrong.

Jobabob

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.

Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.

The Manchester Metro Mayor will happen though - and rightly so

Tykejohnno

CD13 said:

Rejoice, Mr Smithson, our cracked pavements will be in good hands.

Except for the Syrian refugee's when it comes to lib dems in charge,no room in the inn here.

(Two faced B's)

Gardenwalker

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.

Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.

But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?

The graphene centre, for one. Plus he has advocated for a proper industrial strategy in the North just as you and I would. As I said, he's not someone the government should be losing so easily. I think it may have been jis China obsession that did it.

He was also focusing on what to do about drug resistant infections, one of those longer term threats we tend to discount in the day to day.

Serious loss to the government, and an ill omen.

Since May has gone forward with Hinckley, and hasn't resiled per se on the Northern Powerhouse -- perhaps he's been treated a bit shoddily.

May and her advisors seem to have form on that.

Mortimer

Bob's newly found appreciation for Osborne is one of the more unlikely impacts of Brexit, I must say...

Jobabob

619 said:

New US polls

National

Marist:

Clinton 48
Trump 41

AP

Clinton 45
Trump 35
Johnson 9

Big gap for Trump there. Third poll in 2 days with Clinton with a 6+ national lead with LV's

Yes - all eyes on FL polling now. If that starts to trend back to Hillary, Trump is in real trouble.

MikeSmithson

rcs1000 said:

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.

Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.

But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?

He's an economist, not a banker.

He's also an old boy of my old school

Alistair

Scott_P said:

Coral are offering 20/1 about Osborne next Tory leader.

I'm on...

I think he might be the next +1. In the case of Brexit failure Cons are surely going to play a game of May not being Brexity enough and go more extreme before coming back to Osborne.

Scrapheap_as_was

rcs1000 said:

Scott_P said:

@SamCoatesTimes: Jim O'Neil - who was handpicked by Osborne to be Treasury minister i/c China and Northern Powerhouse - quits suddenly

I used to work with Jim in research at Goldman, and he's a very serious guy.

office was a shrine to man u though...

HurstLlama

rcs1000 said:

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.

Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.

But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?

He's an economist, not a banker.

An ex-Goldman Sachs economist? You think that is a recommendation?

Jobabob

Mortimer said:

Bob's newly found appreciation for Osborne is one of the more unlikely impacts of Brexit, I must say...

Ha!

TOPPING

Gardenwalker said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.

Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.

But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?

The graphene centre, for one. Plus he has advocated for a proper industrial strategy in the North just as you and I would. As I said, he's not someone the government should be losing so easily. I think it may have been jis China obsession that did it.

He was also focusing on what to do about drug resistant infections, one of those longer term threats we tend to discount in the day to day.

Serious loss to the government, and an ill omen.

Since May has gone forward with Hinckley, and hasn't resiled per se on the Northern Powerhouse -- perhaps he's been treated a bit shoddily.

May and her advisors seem to have form on that.

And we thought Osborne had a clique. Tezza's has precisely one member.

As has been noted, to import the three stooges and lose O'Neil is careless bordering on delinquent.

rottenborough

Mortimer said:

Scott_P said:

@SamCoatesTimes: Jim O'Neil - who was handpicked by Osborne to be Treasury minister i/c China and Northern Powerhouse - quits suddenly

Given China and Northern Powerhouse seem to be less high up the agenda than under Osbo, I can't say this is a huge surprise. Shame though, as he is talented.

Another of Osbo's people gone.

Sean_F

IanB2 said:

Sean_F said:

not_on_fire said:

Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important here but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time. Bearing in mind that even parliamentary by-elections are a poor predictor of what happens at the GE even not very far out, cf Rochester and Eastleigh.

They tell you something, but it's not always clear what that something is.

The Tories are starting to lose quite a lot of seats, and the Lib Dems are starting to gain quite a lot of seats. *But* the Tories currently hold 43% of all local council seats, and the Lib Dems hold 9%. The former is a high figure for a government in its 7th year, while the latter is a low figure for the Lib Dems (back in 2010, they held about 20% of council seats). To a large extend, the Lib Dems are taking back the low-hanging fruit, rather like the gains the Conservatives made from Labour in 1997-2000.

Labour are still becalmed, not having made a net gain at all.

I agree but would bring in a point I made downthread - Labour's position is actually more nuanced than "becalmed", which simply reflects the average. Labour is actually polling well in cities, especially London, where I think there is a strong appeal particularly to younger private sector tenants, but is chalking up some appalling results elsewhere.

Yes, I agree with that.

TOPPING

HurstLlama said:

rcs1000 said:

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.

Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.

But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?

He's an economist, not a banker.

An ex-Goldman Sachs economist? You think that is a recommendation?

An expert, @HurstLlama; have nothing to do with him.

JonathanD

Alistair said:

Scott_P said:

Coral are offering 20/1 about Osborne next Tory leader.

I'm on...

I think he might be the next +1. In the case of Brexit failure Cons are surely going to play a game of May not being Brexity enough and go more extreme before coming back to Osborne.

I can't see the Tory party ever voting for him. He is either positioning himself for a re-alignment in UK politics or to be the successor to Ken Clarke.

JosiasJessop

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.

Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.

Indeed. Just because it was Osborne's darling, doesn't make it a bad idea.

May's in danger of throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Worse, it makes her government look more south-focused.

The north needs some love.

Gardenwalker

rottenborough said:

Mortimer said:

Scott_P said:

@SamCoatesTimes: Jim O'Neil - who was handpicked by Osborne to be Treasury minister i/c China and Northern Powerhouse - quits suddenly

Given China and Northern Powerhouse seem to be less high up the agenda than under Osbo, I can't say this is a huge surprise. Shame though, as he is talented.

Another of Osbo's people gone.

The so called security threat represented by Chinese investment was a major faux pas. Hinckley very criticisable, and no harm done by delaying so that May could signal her authority, but to question Chinese intent was very, very stupid.

rcs1000

HurstLlama said:

rcs1000 said:

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.

Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.

But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?

He's an economist, not a banker.

An ex-Goldman Sachs economist? You think that is a recommendation?

Goldman made tens of billions following his economic advice, how would you prefer to measure his success?

PlatoSaid

King Robbo
Just to be sure...We are counting on THESE PEOPLE to report about the election results in … https://t.co/tRMjI3uduB https://t.co/KxVMSkSfnF

Lots of association, but doesn't help the perception

TOPPING

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

Sean_F said:

not_on_fire said:

Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important here but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time. Bearing in mind that even parliamentary by-elections are a poor predictor of what happens at the GE even not very far out, cf Rochester and Eastleigh.

They tell you something, but it's not always clear what that something is.

The Tories are starting to lose quite a lot of seats, and the Lib Dems are starting to gain quite a lot of seats. *But* the Tories currently hold 43% of all local council seats, and the Lib Dems hold 9%. The former is a high figure for a government in its 7th year, while the latter is a low figure for the Lib Dems (back in 2010, they held about 20% of council seats). To a large extend, the Lib Dems are taking back the low-hanging fruit, rather like the gains the Conservatives made from Labour in 1997-2000.

Labour are still becalmed, not having made a net gain at all.

I agree but would bring in a point I made downthread - Labour's position is actually more nuanced than "becalmed", which simply reflects the average. Labour is actually polling well in cities, especially London, where I think there is a strong appeal particularly to younger private sector tenants, but is chalking up some appalling results elsewhere.

Yes, I agree with that.

After Coca Cola and Apple I would have thought the Labour brand is pretty strong, with many people Likely to disagree with Jezza's view on being in power who will try to vote them in regardless.

HurstLlama

TOPPING said:

HurstLlama said:

rcs1000 said:

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.

Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.

But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?

He's an economist, not a banker.

An ex-Goldman Sachs economist? You think that is a recommendation?

An expert, @HurstLlama; have nothing to do with him.

Well, you see I think experts ought to be, well, expert. To get calls right, to provide good advice. If my IFA got a call wrong I'd be looking at him askance. If he got two calls wrong I'd sack him. You might have different standards.

Gardenwalker

JosiasJessop said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.

Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.

Indeed. Just because it was Osborne's darling, doesn't make it a bad idea.

May's in danger of throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Worse, it makes her government look more south-focused.

The north needs some love.

Especially if you believe, as I do, that it is regional inequality and the underperformance of the country outside London, that holds back the entire country.

SimonStClare

Afternoon all.

@bigjohnowl

Fingers crossed and good luck BJO - hoping for the best outcome for you and your good lady.

FrancisUrquhart

PlatoSaid said:

King Robbo
Just to be sure...We are counting on THESE PEOPLE to report about the election results in … https://t.co/tRMjI3uduB https://t.co/KxVMSkSfnF

Lots of association, but doesn't help the perception

Small world....but unsurprising, as the Elite stick together*

(*joke for those who get uptight about talk of the Elite vs the Plebs).

MaxPB

HurstLlama said:

rcs1000 said:

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.

Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.

But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?

He's an economist, not a banker.

An ex-Goldman Sachs economist? You think that is a recommendation?

I think that's extremely unfair, he's done some really good work in the North, a part of the country which has been neglected by Westminster for far too long. As I said, he supports a proper industrial strategy rather than our current free market approach.

TOPPING

HurstLlama said:

TOPPING said:

HurstLlama said:

rcs1000 said:

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.

Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.

But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?

He's an economist, not a banker.

An ex-Goldman Sachs economist? You think that is a recommendation?

An expert, @HurstLlama; have nothing to do with him.

Well, you see I think experts ought to be, well, expert. To get calls right, to provide good advice. If my IFA got a call wrong I'd be looking at him askance. If he got two calls wrong I'd sack him. You might have different standards.

You must go through a lot of IFAs. That or the one who you have stuck with must be a billionaire.

HurstLlama

rcs1000 said:

HurstLlama said:

rcs1000 said:

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.

Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.

But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?

He's an economist, not a banker.

An ex-Goldman Sachs economist? You think that is a recommendation?

Goldman made tens of billions following his economic advice, how would you prefer to measure his success?

Really? Which of the major problems did he predict in advance so that his company could position themselves to take advantage of?

MaxPB

HurstLlama said:

TOPPING said:

HurstLlama said:

rcs1000 said:

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.

Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.

But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?

He's an economist, not a banker.

An ex-Goldman Sachs economist? You think that is a recommendation?

An expert, @HurstLlama; have nothing to do with him.

Well, you see I think experts ought to be, well, expert. To get calls right, to provide good advice. If my IFA got a call wrong I'd be looking at him askance. If he got two calls wrong I'd sack him. You might have different standards.

Fair enough, but Jim hasn't had any wrong calls I can think of, he called the BRICs boom exactly right and has correctly outlined the failure of our long term economic strategy in the North of England.

AlastairMeeks

@bigjohnowls Fingers and everything else crossed for today. My thoughts are with you and Mrs BJO.

HurstLlama

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

rcs1000 said:

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.

Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.

But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?

He's an economist, not a banker.

An ex-Goldman Sachs economist? You think that is a recommendation?

I think that's extremely unfair, he's done some really good work in the North, a part of the country which has been neglected by Westminster for far too long. As I said, he supports a proper industrial strategy rather than our current free market approach.

Theresa May has said she wants an industrial strategy. What has that got to do with it? What good work has this chap done in the North? Please, give me some specifics of actual achievement.

Sean_F

TOPPING said:

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

Sean_F said:

not_on_fire said:

Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important here but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time. Bearing in mind that even parliamentary by-elections are a poor predictor of what happens at the GE even not very far out, cf Rochester and Eastleigh.

They tell you something, but it's not always clear what that something is.

The Tories are starting to lose quite a lot of seats, and the Lib Dems are starting to gain quite a lot of seats. *But* the Tories currently hold 43% of all local council seats, and the Lib Dems hold 9%. The former is a high figure for a government in its 7th year, while the latter is a low figure for the Lib Dems (back in 2010, they held about 20% of council seats). To a large extend, the Lib Dems are taking back the low-hanging fruit, rather like the gains the Conservatives made from Labour in 1997-2000.

Labour are still becalmed, not having made a net gain at all.

I agree but would bring in a point I made downthread - Labour's position is actually more nuanced than "becalmed", which simply reflects the average. Labour is actually polling well in cities, especially London, where I think there is a strong appeal particularly to younger private sector tenants, but is chalking up some appalling results elsewhere.

Yes, I agree with that.

After Coca Cola and Apple I would have thought the Labour brand is pretty strong, with many people Likely to disagree with Jezza's view on being in power who will try to vote them in regardless.

Labour's brand is enormously strong.

Barnesian

Scott_P said:

Coral are offering 20/1 about Osborne next Tory leader.

I'm on...

Just had a meeting with Zac Goldsmith who informed me that Philip Hammond has said he does not want to be PM. Perhaps this is already known, but if so, it is surprising that he is second favorite on Betfair as next PM.

He also said that the LHR/LGW "decision" will be in early October and will consist of a stated "preference" by the Government followed by a free vote two weeks later.

HurstLlama

TOPPING said:

HurstLlama said:

TOPPING said:

HurstLlama said:

rcs1000 said:

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.

Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.

But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?

He's an economist, not a banker.

An ex-Goldman Sachs economist? You think that is a recommendation?

An expert, @HurstLlama; have nothing to do with him.

Well, you see I think experts ought to be, well, expert. To get calls right, to provide good advice. If my IFA got a call wrong I'd be looking at him askance. If he got two calls wrong I'd sack him. You might have different standards.

You must go through a lot of IFAs. That or the one who you have stuck with must be a billionaire.

No just a fellow who has proved sound in his advice over a number of years. Nothing spectacular, nothing horrible. As I said, Mr. Topping, you and I seem to work to different standards.

TOPPING

@BJO

Best wishes to you and Mrs BJO.

AlastairMeeks

On topic, I forgot to ask my parents how they voted in the Hadleigh by-election. It seems that the collapse in the UKIP vote was as relevant as the slide in the Conservative vote.

The Lib Dems for long had the county council seat in Hadleigh. So this is a reassertion of past local strength as much as a reflection on the Tories' transatlantic representation.

AndyJS

Theresa May is averaging over 40% in the polls compared to 38% for the Tories at the last election.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2016

Pro_Rata

not_on_fire said:

Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important here but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time. Bearing in mind that even parliamentary by-elections are a poor predictor of what happens at the GE even not very far out, cf Rochester and Eastleigh.

It seems to be the preserve of amateurs with spreadsheets using their data primarily for collation (e.g. Andrew Teale and a few on here) and a few major players run very indirect analyses based on complicated data manipulations (e.g. NEV from Rawling and Thrasher, Electoral Calculus who if you expand their seat predictions are doing all sorts with the data). A substantial issue is that there is no mandated reporting requirement for council election results, at least in England, formats are very variable, and multi-seat wards and STV are complicating factors, so a lot of work is needed to put things together.

I've been dabbling in this myself, trying to get a national one vote per person 'last voted' picture from council elections and see how it fits, but I'm only up to date with the 2014 picture* and haven't worked backwards or forwards. The raw figures from 2014 are:

Conservative 27.6%
Labour 31.1%
LD 11.7%
UKIP 12.7%
Greens 4.6%
Nats 4.0%
Others / Ind 8.3%

* includes 2014 metro & by-third unitaries, 2013 counties, last 1 in 4 elections from London, Scotland, Wales, and 1in4 unitaries (all 2011 to 2014) (excludes by third or 1in2 districts). 2015 figures when I complete collation will have a GE weighting attached to them, but I'm not seeing that much reason to weight between GE years.

These would be the last figures going into GE15, so looking in hindsight at that, the numbers above may have given a clear warning sign about the maximum vote Labour could hope for and the Nat rise, but not so much insight on the Conservative side (though I'm thinking of looking at the split weighted by Ind vote count to see how much Ind tends Conservative) or on the scale of disaster that was awaiting the LDs.

Theuniondivvie

TOPPING said:

@BJO

Best wishes to you and Mrs BJO.

Seconded (or forty seconded as the case may be).

MaxPB

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

rcs1000 said:

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.

Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.

But why do they want this chap who 99% of the country has never heard of on their side? He is an ex-Goldman Sachs banker who has done what exactly?

He's an economist, not a banker.

An ex-Goldman Sachs economist? You think that is a recommendation?

I think that's extremely unfair, he's done some really good work in the North, a part of the country which has been neglected by Westminster for far too long. As I said, he supports a proper industrial strategy rather than our current free market approach.

Theresa May has said she wants an industrial strategy. What has that got to do with it? What good work has this chap done in the North? Please, give me some specifics of actual achievement.

As I mentioned above, the Manchester graphene centre would not have have happened without his involvement. You and I have both lamented in the past about how UK innovations seemed to he outsourced and offshore by foreign companies, we had someone at the top willing to speak out against that. Sadly we've lost that voice, through nothing more than carelessness it seems.

HurstLlama

I must go. My sincere thanks for the interesting discussions on here this morning. I am greatly obliged to those who have given me things to think about and/or replied to my questions.

AndyJS

not_on_fire said:

Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important here but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time. Bearing in mind that even parliamentary by-elections are a poor predictor of what happens at the GE even not very far out, cf Rochester and Eastleigh.

Rallings and Thrasher used to think they were useful in the 1990s but about 10 years ago concluded they weren't of any use in terms of forecasting the national result.

bigjohnowls

Theuniondivvie said:

TOPPING said:

@BJO

Best wishes to you and Mrs BJO.

Seconded (or forty seconded as the case may be).

Thanks to everyone for their kind words, just come away for a bit as told Op will take at least a further 3 hours.

Horrible waiting but remaining optimistic.

JonathanD

Gardenwalker said:

JosiasJessop said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.

Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.

Indeed. Just because it was Osborne's darling, doesn't make it a bad idea.

May's in danger of throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Worse, it makes her government look more south-focused.

The north needs some love.

Especially if you believe, as I do, that it is regional inequality and the underperformance of the country outside London, that holds back the entire country.

Sadly May does not seem to interested in the rest of the country outside London and instead prefers to play political games rather than actually doing something constructive.

"Mrs May’s primary concerns regarding English devolution is that she’s nervous about giving senior Labour politicians a platform and giving them the opportunity to consolidate and reinforce their fragmenting heartlands."

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/nikki-knowles/brexit_b_12132854.html

I see also that part of O'Neill's reasons for resigning is May's grammar school faff. No doubt he will just be dismissed as a posh boy, who went to a private school and wants to keep the elites entrenched position.

Ishmael_X

Sean_F said:

TOPPING said:

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

Sean_F said:

not_on_fire said:

Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important here but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time. Bearing in mind that even parliamentary by-elections are a poor predictor of what happens at the GE even not very far out, cf Rochester and Eastleigh.

They tell you something, but it's not always clear what that something is.

The Tories are starting to lose quite a lot of seats, and the Lib Dems are starting to gain quite a lot of seats. *But* the Tories currently hold 43% of all local council seats, and the Lib Dems hold 9%. The former is a high figure for a government in its 7th year, while the latter is a low figure for the Lib Dems (back in 2010, they held about 20% of council seats). To a large extend, the Lib Dems are taking back the low-hanging fruit, rather like the gains the Conservatives made from Labour in 1997-2000.

Labour are still becalmed, not having made a net gain at all.

I agree but would bring in a point I made downthread - Labour's position is actually more nuanced than "becalmed", which simply reflects the average. Labour is actually polling well in cities, especially London, where I think there is a strong appeal particularly to younger private sector tenants, but is chalking up some appalling results elsewhere.

Yes, I agree with that.

After Coca Cola and Apple I would have thought the Labour brand is pretty strong, with many people Likely to disagree with Jezza's view on being in power who will try to vote them in regardless.

Labour's brand is enormously strong.

Woolworth.

Gardenwalker

JonathanD said:

Gardenwalker said:

JosiasJessop said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

I can't imagine why, Mr. J.. One of Osborne's old mates who nobody had ever heard of and whose work (if any) was invisible to the average person and whose achievements are not visible to the naked eye has resigned. Wow! That is really going to be the top topic of conversation in homes and pubs this evening.

Jim is definitely someone the government want on their side. It's a shame to lose him so carelessly. I do now fear for the northern powerhouse strategy, something which was finally gaining ground.

Indeed. Just because it was Osborne's darling, doesn't make it a bad idea.

May's in danger of throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Worse, it makes her government look more south-focused.

The north needs some love.

Especially if you believe, as I do, that it is regional inequality and the underperformance of the country outside London, that holds back the entire country.

Sadly May does not seem to interested in the rest of the country outside London and instead prefers to play political games rather than actually doing something constructive.

"Mrs May’s primary concerns regarding English devolution is that she’s nervous about giving senior Labour politicians a platform and giving them the opportunity to consolidate and reinforce their fragmenting heartlands."

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/nikki-knowles/brexit_b_12132854.html

I see also that part of O'Neill's reasons for resigning is May's grammar school. No doubt he will just be dismissed as a posh boy, who went to a private school and wants to keep the elites entrenched position.

Stupid if so, as he grew up in Stockport and went to the local comprehensive.

Just the sort of person you'd be desperate to keep if you were a modern, One Nation Tory party.

bigjohnowls

Interesting set of By Election results.

Seems strangely at odds with polls but i guess local circumstances at least partly responsible.

3 Lab gains, wonder when that last happened!!

foxinsoxuk

Sean_F said:

not_on_fire said:

Has anyone, anywhere ever done any study into whether local by-elections have any bearing at all on GE results? They're always presented as being vitally important here but I have a hard time believing a parish election in Nowhere-on-the-Wold has any relation to a GE in 4 years time. Bearing in mind that even parliamentary by-elections are a poor predictor of what happens at the GE even not very far out, cf Rochester and Eastleigh.

They tell you something, but it's not always clear what that something is.

The Tories are starting to lose quite a lot of seats, and the Lib Dems are starting to gain quite a lot of seats. *But* the Tories currently hold 43% of all local council seats, and the Lib Dems hold 9%. The former is a high figure for a government in its 7th year, while the latter is a low figure for the Lib Dems (back in 2010, they held about 20% of council seats). To a large extend, the Lib Dems are taking back the low-hanging fruit, rather like the gains the Conservatives made from Labour in 1997-2000.

Labour are still becalmed, not having made a net gain at all.

I think that in part we are seeing voters disenchanted with national parties that are interested in finerey but not in bread and butter issues.

It suits the mood of disenchantment to have local parties (LD and Lab in particular) that take up the role of opposition to government policies, when the national parties navel gaze.

It is worth noting also that since grammar schools (a local issue for local people) re-emerged as a political football the Tory results have worsened. It may be playing very poorly on the doorsteps, and energising LD and Lab activists.

Best wishes to Mrs BJO BTW.

Animal_pb

bigjohnowls said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TOPPING said:

@BJO

Best wishes to you and Mrs BJO.

Seconded (or forty seconded as the case may be).

Thanks to everyone for their kind words, just come away for a bit as told Op will take at least a further 3 hours.

Horrible waiting but remaining optimistic.

It's tough feeling like just a bystander while these kind of things are going on. Please add my best wishes to the rest of the PB throng.

Charles

@rcs1000 FPT

Islington is very representative of Islington?

How well does PRC represent your needs?

Dadge

HurstLlama said:

Picking up on the grammar pendant discussion from this morning, I have just noticed that this site's title bar includes the expression " Britain's most-read political blog...".

"most-read", is that correct? Should there be a hyphen there? I should have thought the, "most read" would be the correct form.

I think you're right. Most is an adverb, so the phrase should not be hyphenated.

Charles

JosiasJessop said:

FPT:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Lord O'Neill resigns as infrastructure minister. Annoyed by Hinkley review, Northern Powerhouse "wobble" and grammar school policy, am told.

This is much more a problem for May than one week's set of local election results.

Why?

An average Goldmans partner who was best known for coining the phrase "BRICs" 15 years ago realises that for all the time he spent kissing ar*e, he'd been kissing the wrong one and decides not to waste his time where there is no preferment on the horizon.

dr_spyn

@bigjohnowls Hope all goes well for your wife today.

HYUFD

Blair and Cameron lost local government by elections, Hague and Miliband won them, they are largely useless in identifying any national trend. Far more significant is yougov today which has the Tories up two percent on the general election to 39% under May

IanB2

AlastairMeeks said:

On topic, I forgot to ask my parents how they voted in the Hadleigh by-election. It seems that the collapse in the UKIP vote was as relevant as the slide in the Conservative vote.

The Lib Dems for long had the county council seat in Hadleigh. So this is a reassertion of past local strength as much as a reflection on the Tories' transatlantic representation.

The interesting thing is that what some years ago was the common assumption - that UKIP would take anti-EU votes from the Tories - has turned out to be dramatically wrong.

For every retired Sussex Colonel who switched Tory to UKIP there have been plenty of WWC Labour-to-UKIP switchers as well as NOTO/protest LibDem to UKIP voters. So as UKIP unwinds the benefit isn't accruing to the Tories as once would have been thought, and the "Tory + UKIP votes = right-wing majority" line is misguided.

HYUFD

Jobabob said:

619 said:

New US polls

National

Marist:

Clinton 48
Trump 41

AP

Clinton 45
Trump 35
Johnson 9

Big gap for Trump there. Third poll in 2 days with Clinton with a 6+ national lead with LV's

Yes - all eyes on FL polling now. If that starts to trend back to Hillary, Trump is in real trouble.

Trump is presently polling better than any Republican candidate since George W Bush on average with RCP, he is not in trouble yet and of course the first debate is on Monday

dr_spyn

Waugh implies that O'Neil's letter implies that plug hasn't been pulled from Northern Powerhouse.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/779287017733623811

Alistair

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/779266706652991488
https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/779279315850625024

AndyJS

Labour would be close to losing seats to the Tories in Wrexham, Clwyd South, Alyn & Deeside and Delyn with today's Welsh barometer opinion poll:

http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-09-23/owen-smith-less-popular-in-wales-than-jeremy-corbyn-as-tories-cut-labours-lead/

rottenborough

Alistair said:

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/779266706652991488
https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/779279315850625024

Can't you register on the day in some US states?