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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Terror casts a shadow over the race for the White House

It is sadly inevitable that events in New York and New Jersey – coming so soon after the anniversary of 9/11 – will be analysed through the prism of the coming election. What is less clear is the impact they will have. The traditional view is that events surrounding national security will favour the Republican candidate.

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FrancisUrquhart

First....no I won't accept a biscuit as a prize, I am anti-sugar....

I am sure Trump will respond with a measured Presidential-esque statement...

MTimT

FrancisUrquhart said:

First....no I won't accept a biscuit as a prize, I am anti-sugar....

I am sure Trump will respond with a measured Presidential-esque statement...

I take it you would like a sugar-free, gluten-free, dairy-free muffin instead.

FrancisUrquhart

MTimT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

First....no I won't accept a biscuit as a prize, I am anti-sugar....

I am sure Trump will respond with a measured Presidential-esque statement...

I take it you would like a sugar-free, gluten-free, dairy-free muffin instead.

Made with Hemp protein obvs.....

But I have spent the evening making jam...but I am still definitely anti-sugar.

vik

Trump now leads by 2 in the latest Red Oak/Google poll conducted 15-16 Sep.

Clinton had led by 3 in the previous 1-2 Sep poll & by 7 in the 18-19 Aug poll.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

IanB2

Fit

vik

Nate Silver has previously commented on how Trump does better in Internet polls vs telephone polls.

We saw the same pattern in the Brexit polling, where Telephone polling favoured Remain & was less accurate than Internet polling. The reasons are the same: Leave supporters and Trump supporters are called racists by the Mass Media, so the supporters are only willing to express their true feelings in an online survey.

I'm expecting the Internet polls to be more accurate in the US presidential election.

RobD

Anyone on PB been asking about deleting emails? Titter....

http://regated.com/2016/09/paul-combetta-asking-destroy-evidence/

MTimT

Sean Trende is one of the best of the newer political (as opposed to statistical like Nate Silver) commentators in the US. He is unconvinced that Trump's surge is necessarily good news for him

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/09/19/why_her_poll_decline_could_be_good_news_for_clinton_131820.html

BTW, what a truly dreadful picture of Hillary in the article. She looks completely washed out and exhausted. How on earth will she cope with being President?

DecrepitJohnL

MTimT said:

Sean Trende is one of the best of the newer political (as opposed to statistical like Nate Silver) commentators in the US. He is unconvinced that Trump's surge is necessarily good news for him

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/09/19/why_her_poll_decline_could_be_good_news_for_clinton_131820.html

BTW, what a truly dreadful picture of Hillary in the article. She looks completely washed out and exhausted. How on earth will she cope with being President?

If Hillary does not play golf like Bush and Obama then maybe she could just sleep like Reagan.

The article may have been overtaken by events -- the terror attacks that are the subject of this thread, and to which Hillary is reacting to in the photo (speaking to reporters on her plane).

Moses_

In regard to terror N.Korea takes yet another step closer to ballistic missile launch capability.

At some point in the near future the newly elected POTUS will have to deal with this guy and firmly. Sanctions are not achieving the aim and as suggested "jaw jaw" with other countries forced to the table may not be palatable for them and certainly would be used by Pyongyang as a massive victory.

"North Korea has said it has successfully tested a new rocket engine which could be used to launch satellites. The country's leader Kim Jong-Un has asked scientists and engineers to make preparations for a satellite launch as soon as possible.The United Nations and others view the North's space launch development project as a way of hiding tests of missile technology

http://news.sky.com/story/north-korea-successfully-tests-satellite-rocket-engine-10585490

I am more concerned about this guy than ISIS or Al Qaeda combined.

DecrepitJohnL

vik said:

Nate Silver has previously commented on how Trump does better in Internet polls vs telephone polls.

We saw the same pattern in the Brexit polling, where Telephone polling favoured Remain & was less accurate than Internet polling. The reasons are the same: Leave supporters and Trump supporters are called racists by the Mass Media, so the supporters are only willing to express their true feelings in an online survey.

I'm expecting the Internet polls to be more accurate in the US presidential election.

Perhaps, though it is also true that internet polls have tended to favour anti-establishment candidates. Is Trump the American Brexit or this year's Ron Paul?

Sandpit

RobD said:

Anyone on PB been asking about deleting emails? Titter....

http://regated.com/2016/09/paul-combetta-asking-destroy-evidence/

Oh dear. Why did she hire an idiot as an IT guy?

Sandpit

Moses_ said:

In regard to terror N.Korea takes yet another step closer to ballistic missile launch capability.

At some point in the near future the newly elected POTUS will have to deal with this guy and firmly. Sanctions are not achieving the aim and as suggested "jaw jaw" with other countries forced to the table may not be palatable for them and certainly would be used by Pyongyang as a massive victory.

"North Korea has said it has successfully tested a new rocket engine which could be used to launch satellites. The country's leader Kim Jong-Un has asked scientists and engineers to make preparations for a satellite launch as soon as possible.The United Nations and others view the North's space launch development project as a way of hiding tests of missile technology

http://news.sky.com/story/north-korea-successfully-tests-satellite-rocket-engine-10585490

I am more concerned about this guy than ISIS or Al Qaeda combined.

That's a worrying development. So they've successfully tested a nuclear bomb and a rocket launcher within a few weeks of each other...

We must hope that someone has the capability to knock the missile out of the sky if required, imagine Seoul and Tokyo are a little twitchy right now.

MTimT

Sandpit said:

Moses_ said:

In regard to terror N.Korea takes yet another step closer to ballistic missile launch capability.

At some point in the near future the newly elected POTUS will have to deal with this guy and firmly. Sanctions are not achieving the aim and as suggested "jaw jaw" with other countries forced to the table may not be palatable for them and certainly would be used by Pyongyang as a massive victory.

"North Korea has said it has successfully tested a new rocket engine which could be used to launch satellites. The country's leader Kim Jong-Un has asked scientists and engineers to make preparations for a satellite launch as soon as possible.The United Nations and others view the North's space launch development project as a way of hiding tests of missile technology

http://news.sky.com/story/north-korea-successfully-tests-satellite-rocket-engine-10585490

I am more concerned about this guy than ISIS or Al Qaeda combined.

That's a worrying development. So they've successfully tested a nuclear bomb and a rocket launcher within a few weeks of each other...

We must hope that someone has the capability to knock the missile out of the sky if required, imagine Seoul and Tokyo are a little twitchy right now.

There are very few options that are practicable, other than to lean on the Chinese to lean on the North Koreans. What we are seeing are the limits of both US and Chinese power, or at least the limits of their will to use power.

edmundintokyo

Sandpit said:

Moses_ said:

In regard to terror N.Korea takes yet another step closer to ballistic missile launch capability.

At some point in the near future the newly elected POTUS will have to deal with this guy and firmly. Sanctions are not achieving the aim and as suggested "jaw jaw" with other countries forced to the table may not be palatable for them and certainly would be used by Pyongyang as a massive victory.

"North Korea has said it has successfully tested a new rocket engine which could be used to launch satellites. The country's leader Kim Jong-Un has asked scientists and engineers to make preparations for a satellite launch as soon as possible.The United Nations and others view the North's space launch development project as a way of hiding tests of missile technology

http://news.sky.com/story/north-korea-successfully-tests-satellite-rocket-engine-10585490

I am more concerned about this guy than ISIS or Al Qaeda combined.

That's a worrying development. So they've successfully tested a nuclear bomb and a rocket launcher within a few weeks of each other...

We must hope that someone has the capability to knock the missile out of the sky if required, imagine Seoul and Tokyo are a little twitchy right now.

They've had the ability to nuke Tokyo or Seoul for a while, iiuc.

williamglenn

DecrepitJohnL said:

vik said:

Nate Silver has previously commented on how Trump does better in Internet polls vs telephone polls.

We saw the same pattern in the Brexit polling, where Telephone polling favoured Remain & was less accurate than Internet polling. The reasons are the same: Leave supporters and Trump supporters are called racists by the Mass Media, so the supporters are only willing to express their true feelings in an online survey.

I'm expecting the Internet polls to be more accurate in the US presidential election.

Perhaps, though it is also true that internet polls have tended to favour anti-establishment candidates. Is Trump the American Brexit or this year's Ron Paul?

This year's Ron Paul is Bernie Sanders. Trump is this year's Obama.

Moses_

edmundintokyo said:

Sandpit said:

Moses_ said:

In regard to terror N.Korea takes yet another step closer to ballistic missile launch capability.

At some point in the near future the newly elected POTUS will have to deal with this guy and firmly. Sanctions are not achieving the aim and as suggested "jaw jaw" with other countries forced to the table may not be palatable for them and certainly would be used by Pyongyang as a massive victory.

"North Korea has said it has successfully tested a new rocket engine which could be used to launch satellites. The country's leader Kim Jong-Un has asked scientists and engineers to make preparations for a satellite launch as soon as possible.The United Nations and others view the North's space launch development project as a way of hiding tests of missile technology

http://news.sky.com/story/north-korea-successfully-tests-satellite-rocket-engine-10585490

I am more concerned about this guy than ISIS or Al Qaeda combined.

That's a worrying development. So they've successfully tested a nuclear bomb and a rocket launcher within a few weeks of each other...

We must hope that someone has the capability to knock the missile out of the sky if required, imagine Seoul and Tokyo are a little twitchy right now.

They've had the ability to nuke Tokyo or Seoul for a while, iiuc.

I thought they had issues with miniaturisation and ability to place a small warhead on their rockets. If they can nuke Tokyo already then they are further ahead in regard to intercontinental than I thought and the UN are willing to admit.

not_on_fire

Like ISIS, North Korea will be praying for a Trump victory.

RobD

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37413848

Corbyn thinks there'll be an early election? Bring it on!

JennyFreeman

'There is no ultimate swing state' Nate Silver's 538:
"How crucial are Pennsylvania and Florida? They’re more crucial than all the other states. But they’re still not that crucial. You often hear that some battleground state is absolutely key for Clinton or a must-win for Donald Trump, but really no single state is that pivotal. The map is pretty fluid.

You can see this best in our tipping-point state calculations, which show each state’s chances of providing the decisive 270th vote in the Electoral College for the winner'
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-top-must-win-states-for-trump-and-clinton/"

I hope we have lots more on the US election, with perhaps some guest input from American commentators?

edmundintokyo

Moses_ said:

edmundintokyo said:

Sandpit said:

Moses_ said:

In regard to terror N.Korea takes yet another step closer to ballistic missile launch capability.

At some point in the near future the newly elected POTUS will have to deal with this guy and firmly. Sanctions are not achieving the aim and as suggested "jaw jaw" with other countries forced to the table may not be palatable for them and certainly would be used by Pyongyang as a massive victory.

"North Korea has said it has successfully tested a new rocket engine which could be used to launch satellites. The country's leader Kim Jong-Un has asked scientists and engineers to make preparations for a satellite launch as soon as possible.The United Nations and others view the North's space launch development project as a way of hiding tests of missile technology

http://news.sky.com/story/north-korea-successfully-tests-satellite-rocket-engine-10585490

I am more concerned about this guy than ISIS or Al Qaeda combined.

That's a worrying development. So they've successfully tested a nuclear bomb and a rocket launcher within a few weeks of each other...

We must hope that someone has the capability to knock the missile out of the sky if required, imagine Seoul and Tokyo are a little twitchy right now.

They've had the ability to nuke Tokyo or Seoul for a while, iiuc.

I thought they had issues with miniaturisation and ability to place a small warhead on their rockets. If they can nuke Tokyo already then they are further ahead in regard to intercontinental than I thought and the UN are willing to admit.

OK, maybe you're right.

JennyFreeman

'It is sadly inevitable that events in New York and New Jersey – coming so soon after the anniversary of 9/11 – will be analysed through the prism of the coming election.'

I think this remark shows the kind of supercilious disdain for ordinary voters that characterised the Remain campaign. How dare people drag things like this into an election? This sort of attitude risks contempt for what matters to people at the moment. National security, whether that's under Merkel's let-them-all-in Germany, or bursting Britain, or under attack US, is a serious issue that does matter to people for very good reasons. The fact is that ISIS are hell-bent on the west's destruction. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a deluded fool. So it's not 'sad' that these events influence votes. They are integral to how the hell we sort out the current situation.

Paul_Bedfordshire

Sandpit said:

Moses_ said:

In regard to terror N.Korea takes yet another step closer to ballistic missile launch capability.

At some point in the near future the newly elected POTUS will have to deal with this guy and firmly. Sanctions are not achieving the aim and as suggested "jaw jaw" with other countries forced to the table may not be palatable for them and certainly would be used by Pyongyang as a massive victory.

"North Korea has said it has successfully tested a new rocket engine which could be used to launch satellites. The country's leader Kim Jong-Un has asked scientists and engineers to make preparations for a satellite launch as soon as possible.The United Nations and others view the North's space launch development project as a way of hiding tests of missile technology

http://news.sky.com/story/north-korea-successfully-tests-satellite-rocket-engine-10585490

I am more concerned about this guy than ISIS or Al Qaeda combined.

That's a worrying development. So they've successfully tested a nuclear bomb and a rocket launcher within a few weeks of each other...

We must hope that someone has the capability to knock the missile out of the sky if required, imagine Seoul and Tokyo are a little twitchy right now.

Things must be approaching the stage where a pre-emptive strike to reduce the place to a radioactive hole in the ground must be on the agenda in the US. Certainly will be if Trump wins.

Sandpit

Moses_ said:

edmundintokyo said:

Sandpit said:

Moses_ said:

In regard to terror N.Korea takes yet another step closer to ballistic missile launch capability.

At some point in the near future the newly elected POTUS will have to deal with this guy and firmly. Sanctions are not achieving the aim and as suggested "jaw jaw" with other countries forced to the table may not be palatable for them and certainly would be used by Pyongyang as a massive victory.

"North Korea has said it has successfully tested a new rocket engine which could be used to launch satellites. The country's leader Kim Jong-Un has asked scientists and engineers to make preparations for a satellite launch as soon as possible.The United Nations and others view the North's space launch development project as a way of hiding tests of missile technology

http://news.sky.com/story/north-korea-successfully-tests-satellite-rocket-engine-10585490

I am more concerned about this guy than ISIS or Al Qaeda combined.

That's a worrying development. So they've successfully tested a nuclear bomb and a rocket launcher within a few weeks of each other...

We must hope that someone has the capability to knock the missile out of the sky if required, imagine Seoul and Tokyo are a little twitchy right now.

They've had the ability to nuke Tokyo or Seoul for a while, iiuc.

I thought they had issues with miniaturisation and ability to place a small warhead on their rockets. If they can nuke Tokyo already then they are further ahead in regard to intercontinental than I thought and the UN are willing to admit.

That was my understanding too. They're building bigger rockets because that's easier than making the nukes small enough to fit on the existing ones.

Sandpit

JennyFreeman said:

'It is sadly inevitable that events in New York and New Jersey – coming so soon after the anniversary of 9/11 – will be analysed through the prism of the coming election.'

I think this remark shows the kind of supercilious disdain for ordinary voters that characterised the Remain campaign. How dare people drag things like this into an election? This sort of attitude risks contempt for what matters to people at the moment. National security, whether that's under Merkel's let-them-all-in Germany, or bursting Britain, or under attack US, is a serious issue that does matter to people for very good reasons. The fact is that ISIS are hell-bent on the west's destruction. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a deluded fool. So it's not 'sad' that these events influence votes. They are integral to how the hell we sort out the current situation.

Very well said.

PlatoSaid

RobD said:

Anyone on PB been asking about deleting emails? Titter....

http://regated.com/2016/09/paul-combetta-asking-destroy-evidence/

What's so weird is that despite having immunity, he took the 5th. Eh?

RobD

PlatoSaid said:

RobD said:

Anyone on PB been asking about deleting emails? Titter....

http://regated.com/2016/09/paul-combetta-asking-destroy-evidence/

What's so weird is that despite having immunity, he took the 5th. Eh?

I can't believe this story still has legs.. lol

PlatoSaid

RobD said:

PlatoSaid said:

RobD said:

Anyone on PB been asking about deleting emails? Titter....

http://regated.com/2016/09/paul-combetta-asking-destroy-evidence/

What's so weird is that despite having immunity, he took the 5th. Eh?

I can't believe this story still has legs.. lol

I remember watching a docu on the Silk Road guy = he was finally caught when he changed his common user name after worrying he was being watched.

The strangest thing for me about the various terror attacks right now is the media/Hillary arguing about when it's okay to say Bomb, and trying to resuscitate Birtherism - everyone else doesn't care about effing syntax or something to do with the outgoing Obama.

It's such colossal point missing. It's Latvian homophobes writ large.

foxinsoxuk

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Sandpit said:

Moses_ said:

In regard to terror N.Korea takes yet another step closer to ballistic missile launch capability.

At some point in the near future the newly elected POTUS will have to deal with this guy and firmly. Sanctions are not achieving the aim and as suggested "jaw jaw" with other countries forced to the table may not be palatable for them and certainly would be used by Pyongyang as a massive victory.

"North Korea has said it has successfully tested a new rocket engine which could be used to launch satellites. The country's leader Kim Jong-Un has asked scientists and engineers to make preparations for a satellite launch as soon as possible.The United Nations and others view the North's space launch development project as a way of hiding tests of missile technology

http://news.sky.com/story/north-korea-successfully-tests-satellite-rocket-engine-10585490

I am more concerned about this guy than ISIS or Al Qaeda combined.

That's a worrying development. So they've successfully tested a nuclear bomb and a rocket launcher within a few weeks of each other...

We must hope that someone has the capability to knock the missile out of the sky if required, imagine Seoul and Tokyo are a little twitchy right now.

Things must be approaching the stage where a pre-emptive strike to reduce the place to a radioactive hole in the ground must be on the agenda in the US. Certainly will be if Trump wins.

On the contrary. Trump has threatened to pull all US troops out of Japan and South Korea, presumably including those manning anti missile defences.

http://www.voanews.com/a/us-senators-urge-south-korea-to-take-trump-with-grain-of-salt/3422606.html

Once again Trump may be lying and making empty threats, but is it worth the risk?

matt

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Sandpit said:

Moses_ said:

In regard to terror N.Korea takes yet another step closer to ballistic missile launch capability.

At some point in the near future the newly elected POTUS will have to deal with this guy and firmly. Sanctions are not achieving the aim and as suggested "jaw jaw" with other countries forced to the table may not be palatable for them and certainly would be used by Pyongyang as a massive victory.

"North Korea has said it has successfully tested a new rocket engine which could be used to launch satellites. The country's leader Kim Jong-Un has asked scientists and engineers to make preparations for a satellite launch as soon as possible.The United Nations and others view the North's space launch development project as a way of hiding tests of missile technology

http://news.sky.com/story/north-korea-successfully-tests-satellite-rocket-engine-10585490

I am more concerned about this guy than ISIS or Al Qaeda combined.

That's a worrying development. So they've successfully tested a nuclear bomb and a rocket launcher within a few weeks of each other...

We must hope that someone has the capability to knock the missile out of the sky if required, imagine Seoul and Tokyo are a little twitchy right now.

Things must be approaching the stage where a pre-emptive strike to reduce the place to a radioactive hole in the ground must be on the agenda in the US. Certainly will be if Trump wins.

Fortunately, Le May and MacArthur are no longer with us.

PlatoSaid

"Hillary’s motivations were clear. She flunked her first pseudo debate with Trump on NBC’s Commander in Chief forum earlier this month, placed herself in hot water when she declared half of Trump’s supporters were in a basket of deplorables, and further sowed seeds of mistrust when she lied about her health. She had to change the narrative.

“Hold out baits to entice the enemy,” wrote Sun Tzu, “feign disorder, and crush him.” Hillary, by baiting Trump with the birther controversy, was hoping the outspoken candidate would respond in a manner than that was undisciplined and unpresidential. She was hoping Trump would be Trump. It was a gamble she lost.

“President Barack Obama was born in the United States, period,” Trump said in response. “Now, we all want to get back to making America strong and great again.”

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/296548-how-birtherism-became-hillarys-waterloo

PlatoSaid

Washington Examiner
Ahmad Khan Rahami asked House Democrat for help bringing his Pakistani wife to the U.S. https://t.co/DyS4ryTLMK https://t.co/4ZG6vWw1dD

Moses_

Metro this morning

Neil Kinnock.... " I'm afraid I won't see Labour in power again in my lifetime"

May I be the first to wish Lord Kinnock and very long life, a birthday card from the queen and a subsequent entry into the Guinness book of Records.

foxinsoxuk

Moses_ said:

In regard to terror N.Korea takes yet another step closer to ballistic missile launch capability.

At some point in the near future the newly elected POTUS will have to deal with this guy and firmly. Sanctions are not achieving the aim and as suggested "jaw jaw" with other countries forced to the table may not be palatable for them and certainly would be used by Pyongyang as a massive victory.

"North Korea has said it has successfully tested a new rocket engine which could be used to launch satellites. The country's leader Kim Jong-Un has asked scientists and engineers to make preparations for a satellite launch as soon as possible.The United Nations and others view the North's space launch development project as a way of hiding tests of missile technology

http://news.sky.com/story/north-korea-successfully-tests-satellite-rocket-engine-10585490

I am more concerned about this guy than ISIS or Al Qaeda combined.

It is really only the Chinese that could exert pressure on North Korea, short of war. Trump's anti China policy is hardly conducive to that, indeed may push the other way. Trump has been keen to invite Kim to the US to talk, while similtaneously insulting China:

http://uk.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-north-korean-dictator-kim-jong-2016-6?r=US&IR=T

While we suspect Clinton of lying, once again we are in the position of hoping that Trump is!

I suppose we can add Chinese and Korean Americans to the anti-Trump demographics.

Moses_

not_on_fire said:

Like ISIS, North Korea will be praying for a Trump victory.

Avoided sugar on your coco pops this morning did you?

SouthamObserver

JennyFreeman said:

'It is sadly inevitable that events in New York and New Jersey – coming so soon after the anniversary of 9/11 – will be analysed through the prism of the coming election.'

I think this remark shows the kind of supercilious disdain for ordinary voters that characterised the Remain campaign. How dare people drag things like this into an election? This sort of attitude risks contempt for what matters to people at the moment. National security, whether that's under Merkel's let-them-all-in Germany, or bursting Britain, or under attack US, is a serious issue that does matter to people for very good reasons. The fact is that ISIS are hell-bent on the west's destruction. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a deluded fool. So it's not 'sad' that these events influence votes. They are integral to how the hell we sort out the current situation.

Far be it form me to speak for Kieran, but I suspect that his use of "sadly" was meant only to imply that once an issue becomes the subject of back and forth in a presidential election, those directly affected by it - the victims, friends and families - are no longer at the centre of attention. I think that this is sad. I also think it is sad that we do have to have this debate. Not because I am obsessed by political correctness, but sad because in the 21st century it would be much better, much happier, if you like, that innocent people going about their daily loves were not being attacked by terrorists.

I reckon we could do without the Outrage Police monitoring every word written about these issues for "disdain" for ordinary voters. It's pathetic.

foxinsoxuk

Moses_ said:

not_on_fire said:

Like ISIS, North Korea will be praying for a Trump victory.

Avoided sugar on your coco pops this morning did you?

The North Korean regime has explicitly endorsed Trump for President:

http://qz.com/743829/north-korea-gave-a-glowing-endorsement-of-donald-trump-in-the-us-election/

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/06/02/world/asia/north-korea-donald-trump.html

Moses_

foxinsoxuk said:

Moses_ said:

In regard to terror N.Korea takes yet another step closer to ballistic missile launch capability.

At some point in the near future the newly elected POTUS will have to deal with this guy and firmly. Sanctions are not achieving the aim and as suggested "jaw jaw" with other countries forced to the table may not be palatable for them and certainly would be used by Pyongyang as a massive victory.

"North Korea has said it has successfully tested a new rocket engine which could be used to launch satellites. The country's leader Kim Jong-Un has asked scientists and engineers to make preparations for a satellite launch as soon as possible.The United Nations and others view the North's space launch development project as a way of hiding tests of missile technology

http://news.sky.com/story/north-korea-successfully-tests-satellite-rocket-engine-10585490

I am more concerned about this guy than ISIS or Al Qaeda combined.

It is really only the Chinese that could exert pressure on North Korea, short of war. Trump's anti China policy is hardly conducive to that, indeed may push the other way. Trump has been keen to invite Kim to the US to talk, while similtaneously insulting China:

http://uk.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-north-korean-dictator-kim-jong-2016-6?r=US&IR=T

While we suspect Clinton of lying, once again we are in the position of hoping that Trump is!

I suppose we can add Chinese and Korean Americans to the anti-Trump demographics.

if Trump wants to talk maybe that could be a possibility then though he might be telling porkies.

However as much as I hate to point this out Kim will never sit down with a woman on equal terms across the table. His ego and nature would not allow such a scenario including the reports of such a meeting with a US female president if they got out back home. He utterly hates America and tells his "folks" regularly.

PlatoSaid

Conflict News
VIDEO: Shootout between police and NJ/NY bombing suspect Ahmad Rahami in Linden - @ABC

https://t.co/5Dcq3gJnK8

Moses_

foxinsoxuk said:

Moses_ said:

not_on_fire said:

Like ISIS, North Korea will be praying for a Trump victory.

Avoided sugar on your coco pops this morning did you?

The North Korean regime has explicitly endorsed Trump for President:

http://qz.com/743829/north-korea-gave-a-glowing-endorsement-of-donald-trump-in-the-us-election/

I only asked if sugar was absent rather than disagree.

foxinsoxuk

Moses_ said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Moses_ said:

In regard to terror N.Korea takes yet another step closer to ballistic missile launch capability.

At some point in the near future the newly elected POTUS will have to deal with this guy and firmly. Sanctions are not achieving the aim and as suggested "jaw jaw" with other countries forced to the table may not be palatable for them and certainly would be used by Pyongyang as a massive victory.

"North Korea has said it has successfully tested a new rocket engine which could be used to launch satellites. The country's leader Kim Jong-Un has asked scientists and engineers to make preparations for a satellite launch as soon as possible.The United Nations and others view the North's space launch development project as a way of hiding tests of missile technology

http://news.sky.com/story/north-korea-successfully-tests-satellite-rocket-engine-10585490

I am more concerned about this guy than ISIS or Al Qaeda combined.

It is really only the Chinese that could exert pressure on North Korea, short of war. Trump's anti China policy is hardly conducive to that, indeed may push the other way. Trump has been keen to invite Kim to the US to talk, while similtaneously insulting China:

http://uk.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-north-korean-dictator-kim-jong-2016-6?r=US&IR=T

While we suspect Clinton of lying, once again we are in the position of hoping that Trump is!

I suppose we can add Chinese and Korean Americans to the anti-Trump demographics.

if Trump wants to talk maybe that could be a possibility then though he might be telling porkies.

However as much as I hate to point this out Kim will never sit down with a woman on equal terms across the table. His ego and nature would not allow such a scenario including the reports of such a meeting with a US female president if they got out back home. He utterly hates America and tells his "folks" regularly.

Kim has certainly suggested talking to Trump. They do not want Hillary to up sanctions on them. Indeed they see Trumps promise to withdraw US troops as a step to reunification (conquest) of South Korea.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/06/02/world/asia/north-korea-donald-trump.html

Paul_Bedfordshire

foxinsoxuk said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Sandpit said:

Moses_ said:

In regard to terror N.Korea takes yet another step closer to ballistic missile launch capability.

At some point in the near future the newly elected POTUS will have to deal with this guy and firmly. Sanctions are not achieving the aim and as suggested "jaw jaw" with other countries forced to the table may not be palatable for them and certainly would be used by Pyongyang as a massive victory.

"North Korea has said it has successfully tested a new rocket engine which could be used to launch satellites. The country's leader Kim Jong-Un has asked scientists and engineers to make preparations for a satellite launch as soon as possible.The United Nations and others view the North's space launch development project as a way of hiding tests of missile technology

http://news.sky.com/story/north-korea-successfully-tests-satellite-rocket-engine-10585490

I am more concerned about this guy than ISIS or Al Qaeda combined.

That's a worrying development. So they've successfully tested a nuclear bomb and a rocket launcher within a few weeks of each other...

We must hope that someone has the capability to knock the missile out of the sky if required, imagine Seoul and Tokyo are a little twitchy right now.

Things must be approaching the stage where a pre-emptive strike to reduce the place to a radioactive hole in the ground must be on the agenda in the US. Certainly will be if Trump wins.

On the contrary. Trump has threatened to pull all US troops out of Japan and South Korea, presumably including those manning anti missile defences.

http://www.voanews.com/a/us-senators-urge-south-korea-to-take-trump-with-grain-of-salt/3422606.html

Once again Trump may be lying and making empty threats, but is it worth the risk?

If he makes a pre-emptive strike on North Korea and turns it into a pile of radioactive ash , there wont be the need for said troops in south korea etc.

CarlottaVance

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Sandpit said:

Moses_ said:

In regard to terror N.Korea takes yet another step closer to ballistic missile launch capability.

At some point in the near future the newly elected POTUS will have to deal with this guy and firmly. Sanctions are not achieving the aim and as suggested "jaw jaw" with other countries forced to the table may not be palatable for them and certainly would be used by Pyongyang as a massive victory.

"North Korea has said it has successfully tested a new rocket engine which could be used to launch satellites. The country's leader Kim Jong-Un has asked scientists and engineers to make preparations for a satellite launch as soon as possible.The United Nations and others view the North's space launch development project as a way of hiding tests of missile technology

http://news.sky.com/story/north-korea-successfully-tests-satellite-rocket-engine-10585490

I am more concerned about this guy than ISIS or Al Qaeda combined.

That's a worrying development. So they've successfully tested a nuclear bomb and a rocket launcher within a few weeks of each other...

We must hope that someone has the capability to knock the missile out of the sky if required, imagine Seoul and Tokyo are a little twitchy right now.

Things must be approaching the stage where a pre-emptive strike to reduce the place to a radioactive hole in the ground must be on the agenda in the US. Certainly will be if Trump wins.

On the contrary. Trump has threatened to pull all US troops out of Japan and South Korea, presumably including those manning anti missile defences.

http://www.voanews.com/a/us-senators-urge-south-korea-to-take-trump-with-grain-of-salt/3422606.html

Once again Trump may be lying and making empty threats, but is it worth the risk?

If he makes a pre-emptive strike on North Korea and turns it into a pile of radioactive ash , there wont be the need for said troops in south korea etc.

How's that going to work?

The Chinese are going to sit there and go 'Those Nukes heading towards us, they're for North Korea, right? They wouldn't be aimed at us would they? Lets just wait and see.....'

foxinsoxuk

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Sandpit said:

Moses_ said:

In regard to terror N.Korea takes yet another step closer to ballistic missile launch capability.

At some point in the near future the newly elected POTUS will have to deal with this guy and firmly. Sanctions are not achieving the aim and as suggested "jaw jaw" with other countries forced to the table may not be palatable for them and certainly would be used by Pyongyang as a massive victory.

"North Korea has said it has successfully tested a new rocket engine which could be used to launch satellites. The country's leader Kim Jong-Un has asked scientists and engineers to make preparations for a satellite launch as soon as possible.The United Nations and others view the North's space launch development project as a way of hiding tests of missile technology

http://news.sky.com/story/north-korea-successfully-tests-satellite-rocket-engine-10585490

I am more concerned about this guy than ISIS or Al Qaeda combined.

That's a worrying development. So they've successfully tested a nuclear bomb and a rocket launcher within a few weeks of each other...

We must hope that someone has the capability to knock the missile out of the sky if required, imagine Seoul and Tokyo are a little twitchy right now.

Things must be approaching the stage where a pre-emptive strike to reduce the place to a radioactive hole in the ground must be on the agenda in the US. Certainly will be if Trump wins.

On the contrary. Trump has threatened to pull all US troops out of Japan and South Korea, presumably including those manning anti missile defences.

http://www.voanews.com/a/us-senators-urge-south-korea-to-take-trump-with-grain-of-salt/3422606.html

Once again Trump may be lying and making empty threats, but is it worth the risk?

If he makes a pre-emptive strike on North Korea and turns it into a pile of radioactive ash , there wont be the need for said troops in south korea etc.

Indeed it wouldn't be safe to stay there, what with all the fallout drifting over their bases!

PlatoSaid

From a few tweets, looks like the IT guy's immunity deal is off as he didn't declare Reddit stuff - explains why he took the 5th.

American Anonymous
https://t.co/znXUyfwi6c
Here is where he reveals Hillary Clintons Email server
#HillarysEmail
#Anonymous
Its all in the testing he did

JennyFreeman

SouthamObserver said:

JennyFreeman said:

'It is sadly inevitable that events in New York and New Jersey – coming so soon after the anniversary of 9/11 – will be analysed through the prism of the coming election.'

I think this remark shows the kind of supercilious disdain for ordinary voters that characterised the Remain campaign. How dare people drag things like this into an election? This sort of attitude risks contempt for what matters to people at the moment. National security, whether that's under Merkel's let-them-all-in Germany, or bursting Britain, or under attack US, is a serious issue that does matter to people for very good reasons. The fact is that ISIS are hell-bent on the west's destruction. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a deluded fool. So it's not 'sad' that these events influence votes. They are integral to how the hell we sort out the current situation.

Far be it form me to speak for Kieran, but I suspect that his use of "sadly" was meant only to imply that once an issue becomes the subject of back and forth in a presidential election, those directly affected by it - the victims, friends and families - are no longer at the centre of attention. I think that this is sad.

That's very lovely but has nothing to do with what Kieran wrote. Still, if you fancy being his amanuensis ...?

JennyFreeman

SouthamObserver said:

JennyFreeman said:

'It is sadly inevitable that events in New York and New Jersey – coming so soon after the anniversary of 9/11 – will be analysed through the prism of the coming election.'

I think this remark shows the kind of supercilious disdain for ordinary voters that characterised the Remain campaign. How dare people drag things like this into an election? This sort of attitude risks contempt for what matters to people at the moment. National security, whether that's under Merkel's let-them-all-in Germany, or bursting Britain, or under attack US, is a serious issue that does matter to people for very good reasons. The fact is that ISIS are hell-bent on the west's destruction. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a deluded fool. So it's not 'sad' that these events influence votes. They are integral to how the hell we sort out the current situation.

I also think it is sad that we do have to have this debate. Not because I am obsessed by political correctness, but sad because in the 21st century it would be much better, much happier, if you like, that innocent people going about their daily loves were not being attacked by terrorists.

Yes well don't we all. It's not the real world though any longer.

CarlottaVance

PlatoSaid said:

Washington Examiner
Ahmad Khan Rahami asked House Democrat for help bringing his Pakistani wife to the U.S. https://t.co/DyS4ryTLMK https://t.co/4ZG6vWw1dD

I wonder if the tweet would have been 'asked House Republican' if his congressman had been a Republican, not a Democrat?

SouthamObserver

JennyFreeman said:

SouthamObserver said:

JennyFreeman said:

'It is sadly inevitable that events in New York and New Jersey – coming so soon after the anniversary of 9/11 – will be analysed through the prism of the coming election.'

I think this remark shows the kind of supercilious disdain for ordinary voters that characterised the Remain campaign. How dare people drag things like this into an election? This sort of attitude risks contempt for what matters to people at the moment. National security, whether that's under Merkel's let-them-all-in Germany, or bursting Britain, or under attack US, is a serious issue that does matter to people for very good reasons. The fact is that ISIS are hell-bent on the west's destruction. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a deluded fool. So it's not 'sad' that these events influence votes. They are integral to how the hell we sort out the current situation.

Far be it form me to speak for Kieran, but I suspect that his use of "sadly" was meant only to imply that once an issue becomes the subject of back and forth in a presidential election, those directly affected by it - the victims, friends and families - are no longer at the centre of attention. I think that this is sad.

That's very lovely but has nothing to do with what Kieran wrote. Still, if you fancy being his amanuensis ...?

The self-appointed members of the Outrage Police are not necessarily the smartest cookies. As you say capably demonstrate :-)

SouthamObserver

JennyFreeman said:

SouthamObserver said:

JennyFreeman said:

'It is sadly inevitable that events in New York and New Jersey – coming so soon after the anniversary of 9/11 – will be analysed through the prism of the coming election.'

I think this remark shows the kind of supercilious disdain for ordinary voters that characterised the Remain campaign. How dare people drag things like this into an election? This sort of attitude risks contempt for what matters to people at the moment. National security, whether that's under Merkel's let-them-all-in Germany, or bursting Britain, or under attack US, is a serious issue that does matter to people for very good reasons. The fact is that ISIS are hell-bent on the west's destruction. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a deluded fool. So it's not 'sad' that these events influence votes. They are integral to how the hell we sort out the current situation.

I also think it is sad that we do have to have this debate. Not because I am obsessed by political correctness, but sad because in the 21st century it would be much better, much happier, if you like, that innocent people going about their daily loves were not being attacked by terrorists.

Yes well don't we all. It's not the real world though any longer.

No, I don't think you do.

PlatoSaid

Well that's a surprise towel throwing by Global Ed of Huffington Post - he's an unhappy bunny

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_57dc4bece4b04a1497b491b6

Why Hillary Lost: A Premature Obit
The blame game has already begun. Here’s where Democrats will point the finger if she loses.

logical_song

CarlottaVance said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Sandpit said:

Moses_ said:

In regard to terror N.Korea takes yet another step closer to ballistic missile launch capability.

At some point in the near future the newly elected POTUS will have to deal with this guy and firmly. Sanctions are not achieving the aim and as suggested "jaw jaw" with other countries forced to the table may not be palatable for them and certainly would be used by Pyongyang as a massive victory.

"North Korea has said it has successfully tested a new rocket engine which could be used to launch satellites. The country's leader Kim Jong-Un has asked scientists and engineers to make preparations for a satellite launch as soon as possible.The United Nations and others view the North's space launch development project as a way of hiding tests of missile technology

http://news.sky.com/story/north-korea-successfully-tests-satellite-rocket-engine-10585490

I am more concerned about this guy than ISIS or Al Qaeda combined.

That's a worrying development. So they've successfully tested a nuclear bomb and a rocket launcher within a few weeks of each other...

We must hope that someone has the capability to knock the missile out of the sky if required, imagine Seoul and Tokyo are a little twitchy right now.

Things must be approaching the stage where a pre-emptive strike to reduce the place to a radioactive hole in the ground must be on the agenda in the US. Certainly will be if Trump wins.

On the contrary. Trump has threatened to pull all US troops out of Japan and South Korea, presumably including those manning anti missile defences.

http://www.voanews.com/a/us-senators-urge-south-korea-to-take-trump-with-grain-of-salt/3422606.html

Once again Trump may be lying and making empty threats, but is it worth the risk?

If he makes a pre-emptive strike on North Korea and turns it into a pile of radioactive ash , there wont be the need for said troops in south korea etc.

How's that going to work?

The Chinese are going to sit there and go 'Those Nukes heading towards us, they're for North Korea, right? They wouldn't be aimed at us would they? Lets just wait and see.....'

It's probably a mistake to take Mr Bedfordshire seriously on this.

brokenwheel

foxinsoxuk said:

Moses_ said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Moses_ said:

In regard to terror N.Korea takes yet another step closer to ballistic missile launch capability.

At some point in the near future the newly elected POTUS will have to deal with this guy and firmly. Sanctions are not achieving the aim and as suggested "jaw jaw" with other countries forced to the table may not be palatable for them and certainly would be used by Pyongyang as a massive victory.

"North Korea has said it has successfully tested a new rocket engine which could be used to launch satellites. The country's leader Kim Jong-Un has asked scientists and engineers to make preparations for a satellite launch as soon as possible.The United Nations and others view the North's space launch development project as a way of hiding tests of missile technology

http://news.sky.com/story/north-korea-successfully-tests-satellite-rocket-engine-10585490

I am more concerned about this guy than ISIS or Al Qaeda combined.

It is really only the Chinese that could exert pressure on North Korea, short of war. Trump's anti China policy is hardly conducive to that, indeed may push the other way. Trump has been keen to invite Kim to the US to talk, while similtaneously insulting China:

http://uk.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-north-korean-dictator-kim-jong-2016-6?r=US&IR=T

While we suspect Clinton of lying, once again we are in the position of hoping that Trump is!

I suppose we can add Chinese and Korean Americans to the anti-Trump demographics.

if Trump wants to talk maybe that could be a possibility then though he might be telling porkies.

However as much as I hate to point this out Kim will never sit down with a woman on equal terms across the table. His ego and nature would not allow such a scenario including the reports of such a meeting with a US female president if they got out back home. He utterly hates America and tells his "folks" regularly.

Kim has certainly suggested talking to Trump. They do not want Hillary to up sanctions on them. Indeed they see Trumps promise to withdraw US troops as a step to reunification (conquest) of South Korea.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/06/02/world/asia/north-korea-donald-trump.html

So you are an interventionist and a warhawk?

JennyFreeman

SouthamObserver said:

JennyFreeman said:

SouthamObserver said:

JennyFreeman said:

'It is sadly inevitable that events in New York and New Jersey – coming so soon after the anniversary of 9/11 – will be analysed through the prism of the coming election.'

I think this remark shows the kind of supercilious disdain for ordinary voters that characterised the Remain campaign. How dare people drag things like this into an election? This sort of attitude risks contempt for what matters to people at the moment. National security, whether that's under Merkel's let-them-all-in Germany, or bursting Britain, or under attack US, is a serious issue that does matter to people for very good reasons. The fact is that ISIS are hell-bent on the west's destruction. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a deluded fool. So it's not 'sad' that these events influence votes. They are integral to how the hell we sort out the current situation.

Far be it form me to speak for Kieran, but I suspect that his use of "sadly" was meant only to imply that once an issue becomes the subject of back and forth in a presidential election, those directly affected by it - the victims, friends and families - are no longer at the centre of attention. I think that this is sad.

That's very lovely but has nothing to do with what Kieran wrote. Still, if you fancy being his amanuensis ...?

The self-appointed members of the Outrage Police are not necessarily the smartest cookies. As you say capably demonstrate :-)

If I understand your English correctly you're basically sticking an 'Outrage Police' label on anyone who challenges a piece of writing with which you agree, and tacking Ad hominem onto it. Hmmm.

As someone once remarked to me, there's no one so illiberal as a liberal.

Moses_

Posted without further comment......

Former soap star Tracy Brabin is favourite to replace murdered Jo Cox as the MP for Batley and Spen after the party revealed its final shortlist.
The 55-year-old actress, who appeared in Coronation Street, Eastenders and Emmerdale is one of two women hoping to win the seat

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3797580/Ex-Coronation-Street-actress-Tracy-Brabin-favourite-replace-murdered-MP-Jo-Cox-Labour-reveals-final-shortlist.html#ixzz4Km3v3oSC

Paul_Bedfordshire

logical_song said:

CarlottaVance said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Sandpit said:

Moses_ said:

In regard to terror N.Korea takes yet another step closer to ballistic missile launch capability.


I am more concerned about this guy than ISIS or Al Qaeda combined.

That's a worrying development. So they've successfully tested a nuclear bomb and a rocket launcher within a few weeks of each other...

We must hope that someone has the capability to knock the missile out of the sky if required, imagine Seoul and Tokyo are a little twitchy right now.

Things must be approaching the stage where a pre-emptive strike to reduce the place to a radioactive hole in the ground must be on the agenda in the US. Certainly will be if Trump wins.

On the contrary. Trump has threatened to pull all US troops out of Japan and South Korea, presumably including those manning anti missile defences.

http://www.voanews.com/a/us-senators-urge-south-korea-to-take-trump-with-grain-of-salt/3422606.html

Once again Trump may be lying and making empty threats, but is it worth the risk?

If he makes a pre-emptive strike on North Korea and turns it into a pile of radioactive ash , there wont be the need for said troops in south korea etc.

How's that going to work?

The Chinese are going to sit there and go 'Those Nukes heading towards us, they're for North Korea, right? They wouldn't be aimed at us would they? Lets just wait and see.....'

It's probably a mistake to take Mr Bedfordshire seriously on this.

What worries me is that, its one thing for someone with no power to make hyperbolic suggestions like this here...

...its another when a serious candidate for POTUS goes round making suggestions like that...you hope it is just hyperbole.

I don't know what the answer is to Kim but, he is getting nuttier by the day and sooner or later war may be inevtiable. The diplomatic trick will indeed by persuading China to sit it out just as Israel were persuaded not to join in in gulf war 1.0.

Pre emptive targetted use of tactical nuclear weapons could be part of such a strategy, aimed at bunkers containing Kim or his military toys. But does Trump have the skill to do something like this without managing to start a war with China?

Paul_Bedfordshire

Moses_ said:

Posted without further comment......

Former soap star Tracy Brabin is favourite to replace murdered Jo Cox as the MP for Batley and Spen after the party revealed its final shortlist.
The 55-year-old actress, who appeared in Coronation Street, Eastenders and Emmerdale is one of two women hoping to win the seat

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3797580/Ex-Coronation-Street-actress-Tracy-Brabin-favourite-replace-murdered-MP-Jo-Cox-Labour-reveals-final-shortlist.html#ixzz4Km3v3oSC

Who?

Alistair

PlatoSaid said:

"Hillary’s motivations were clear. She flunked her first pseudo debate with Trump on NBC’s Commander in Chief forum earlier this month, placed herself in hot water when she declared half of Trump’s supporters were in a basket of deplorables, and further sowed seeds of mistrust when she lied about her health. She had to change the narrative.
"

She flunked the commander in chief forum so badly opinion polling said she won 42-to-40?

619

george w h bush has stated he will be voting for clinton.

Paul_Bedfordshire

Theresa isnt quite planning to shell Zeebrugge yet...

.....but she is certainly upping the ante..

http://dailym.ai/2cZwEkX.

foxinsoxuk

brokenwheel said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Moses_ said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Moses_ said:

In regard to terror N.Korea takes yet another step closer to ballistic missile launch capability.

At some point in the near future the newly elected POTUS will have to deal with this guy and firmly. Sanctions are not achieving the aim and as suggested "jaw jaw" with other countries forced to the table may not be palatable for them and certainly would be used by Pyongyang as a massive victory.

"North Korea has said it has successfully tested a new rocket engine which could be used to launch satellites. The country's leader Kim Jong-Un has asked scientists and engineers to make preparations for a satellite launch as soon as possible.The United Nations and others view the North's space launch development project as a way of hiding tests of missile technology

http://news.sky.com/story/north-korea-successfully-tests-satellite-rocket-engine-10585490

I am more concerned about this guy than ISIS or Al Qaeda combined.

It is really only the Chinese that could exert pressure on North Korea, short of war. Trump's anti China policy is hardly conducive to that, indeed may push the other way. Trump has been keen to invite Kim to the US to talk, while similtaneously insulting China:

http://uk.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-north-korean-dictator-kim-jong-2016-6?r=US&IR=T

While we suspect Clinton of lying, once again we are in the position of hoping that Trump is!

I suppose we can add Chinese and Korean Americans to the anti-Trump demographics.

if Trump wants to talk maybe that could be a possibility then though he might be telling porkies.

However as much as I hate to point this out Kim will never sit down with a woman on equal terms across the table. His ego and nature would not allow such a scenario including the reports of such a meeting with a US female president if they got out back home. He utterly hates America and tells his "folks" regularly.

Kim has certainly suggested talking to Trump. They do not want Hillary to up sanctions on them. Indeed they see Trumps promise to withdraw US troops as a step to reunification (conquest) of South Korea.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/06/02/world/asia/north-korea-donald-trump.html

So you are an interventionist and a warhawk?

On the contrary!

I think the deployment of the US THAAD anti-missile system to South Korea as wise, but the best people to put pressure on North Korea over its sabre rattling are the Chinese. Trump wants to start a trade war in the region and withdraw US troops.

foxinsoxuk

Moses_ said:

Posted without further comment......

Former soap star Tracy Brabin is favourite to replace murdered Jo Cox as the MP for Batley and Spen after the party revealed its final shortlist.
The 55-year-old actress, who appeared in Coronation Street, Eastenders and Emmerdale is one of two women hoping to win the seat

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3797580/Ex-Coronation-Street-actress-Tracy-Brabin-favourite-replace-murdered-MP-Jo-Cox-Labour-reveals-final-shortlist.html#ixzz4Km3v3oSC

Seems like a good and popular local candidate.

PlatoSaid

"Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will be asked to comment on three specific topics in the first presidential debate on Sept. 26.

The moderator, NBC News' Lester Holt, will ask the presidential candidates about "America's direction," "achieving prosperity" and "securing America," according to a statement released Monday afternoon by the Commission on Presidential Debates...

Clinton has reportedly pulled out all the stops preparing for the debates, including consulting with psychology experts and the ghostwriter for Trump's The Art of the Deal.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2602233/

MarqueeMark

"Amanuensis" is a big word to be using in a spat before breakfast. Some of us haven't even had our coco pops yet.....

old_labour

619 said:

george w h bush has stated he will be voting for clinton.

If true, I wonder what the attitude of the Bernie supporters will be.

PlatoSaid

MarqueeMark said:

"Amanuensis" is a big word to be using in a spat before breakfast. Some of us haven't even had our coco pops yet.....

Vapid bilge made it before 7am

CarlottaVance

Interesting analysis of 'what needs to get done' wrt Trade as we Brexit:

http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2016/09/christopher-howarths-guide-to-brexit-how-to-re-join-the-world-trading-system.html

JennyFreeman

MarqueeMark said:

"Amanuensis" is a big word to be using in a spat before breakfast. Some of us haven't even had our coco pops yet.....

foxinsoxuk

old_labour said:

619 said:

george w h bush has stated he will be voting for clinton.

If true, I wonder what the attitude of the Bernie supporters will be.

The report came out via a Facebook overshare. Hard to know if it is true:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/amp.usatoday.com/story/90723912/?client=ms-android-hms-tef-gb

Sandpit

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Theresa isnt quite planning to shell Zeebrugge yet...

.....but she is certainly upping the ante..

http://dailym.ai/2cZwEkX.

Good on her, and contrast with the former PM's attempt at negotiating with the EU only six months ago.

PlatoSaid

"Hillary is also using an insider’s language: see her litany of ‘phobias’. These are terms she and her influential supporters wield all the time as weapons, words that enable them to occupy the moral high ground. From their dominant perch in the culture, they are the ones who get to accuse others of suffering from ‘phobias’. They also get to define what constitutes a ‘phobia’. Want tighter controls on immigration? You’re a xenophobe. Want to see greater security against terrorist attacks? Islamophobe. Disagree with Black Lives Matter? Racist.

What do you call sweeping generalisations about groups of people, and unfairly assigning malign, hateful motives to them, as Hillary does to Trump supporters? Well, you could say that is the definition of bigotry. Clinton and company believe that, as long as it is in the name of fighting racism, sexism, etc, then it is okay to denigrate huge swathes of people. Trashing the white trash is today’s socially acceptable form of elitist bigotry.

http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/trashing-the-white-trash-hillary-and-the-new-bigotry-clinton-trump/18780

Sandpit

old_labour said:

619 said:

george w h bush has stated he will be voting for clinton.

If true, I wonder what the attitude of the Bernie supporters will be.

There's a number of Antiestablishment Bernie supporting Democrats who would rather vote Trump than Hillary, just as there's a number of Establishment Republicans who'd rather vote Hillary than Trump.

These two candidates have turned a lot of assumptions about US elections on their heads. I can still see the possibility of a landslide for either candidate, and can see a turnout between 48% and about 65%. The debates will be as big as the hype leading up to them.

PlatoSaid

Sandpit said:

old_labour said:

619 said:

george w h bush has stated he will be voting for clinton.

If true, I wonder what the attitude of the Bernie supporters will be.

There's a number of Antiestablishment Bernie supporting Democrats who would rather vote Trump than Hillary, just as there's a number of Establishment Republicans who'd rather vote Hillary than Trump.

These two candidates have turned a lot of assumptions about US elections on their heads. I can still see the possibility of a landslide for either candidate, and can see a turnout between 48% and about 65%. The debates will be as big as the hype leading up to them.

The Spiked article refers to this as a referendum on the political establishment now - it certainly seems to be working out that way.

The difference between our political culture here - and that of the US still makes me flinch at times, but it's not here and judging it by our 'normal' is daft. Yet many pundits who should know a great deal better keep doing it.

619

PlatoSaid said:

"Hillary is also using an insider’s language: see her litany of ‘phobias’. These are terms she and her influential supporters wield all the time as weapons, words that enable them to occupy the moral high ground. From their dominant perch in the culture, they are the ones who get to accuse others of suffering from ‘phobias’. They also get to define what constitutes a ‘phobia’. Want tighter controls on immigration? You’re a xenophobe. Want to see greater security against terrorist attacks? Islamophobe. Disagree with Black Lives Matter? Racist.

What do you call sweeping generalisations about groups of people, and unfairly assigning malign, hateful motives to them, as Hillary does to Trump supporters? Well, you could say that is the definition of bigotry. Clinton and company believe that, as long as it is in the name of fighting racism, sexism, etc, then it is okay to denigrate huge swathes of people. Trashing the white trash is today’s socially acceptable form of elitist bigotry.

http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/trashing-the-white-trash-hillary-and-the-new-bigotry-clinton-trump/18780

bullshit. 20% of trump supporters think slavery being abolished was a bad thiing. its not bigotry to call out a politician who plays and encourages racist attitudes like that

619

Sandpit said:

old_labour said:

619 said:

george w h bush has stated he will be voting for clinton.

If true, I wonder what the attitude of the Bernie supporters will be.

There's a number of Antiestablishment Bernie supporting Democrats who would rather vote Trump than Hillary, just as there's a number of Establishment Republicans who'd rather vote Hillary than Trump.

These two candidates have turned a lot of assumptions about US elections on their heads. I can still see the possibility of a landslide for either candidate, and can see a turnout between 48% and about 65%. The debates will be as big as the hype leading up to them.

id say the never trumps are louder and larger than trump voting bernie supporters

PlatoSaid

619 said:

PlatoSaid said:

"Hillary is also using an insider’s language: see her litany of ‘phobias’. These are terms she and her influential supporters wield all the time as weapons, words that enable them to occupy the moral high ground. From their dominant perch in the culture, they are the ones who get to accuse others of suffering from ‘phobias’. They also get to define what constitutes a ‘phobia’. Want tighter controls on immigration? You’re a xenophobe. Want to see greater security against terrorist attacks? Islamophobe. Disagree with Black Lives Matter? Racist.

What do you call sweeping generalisations about groups of people, and unfairly assigning malign, hateful motives to them, as Hillary does to Trump supporters? Well, you could say that is the definition of bigotry. Clinton and company believe that, as long as it is in the name of fighting racism, sexism, etc, then it is okay to denigrate huge swathes of people. Trashing the white trash is today’s socially acceptable form of elitist bigotry.

http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/trashing-the-white-trash-hillary-and-the-new-bigotry-clinton-trump/18780

bullshit. 20% of trump supporters think slavery being abolished was a bad thiing. its not bigotry to call out a politician who plays and encourages racist attitudes like that

I suspect your knowledge of the USA political landscape is invisible to the naked eye.

Innocent_Abroad

Sandpit said:

old_labour said:

619 said:

george w h bush has stated he will be voting for clinton.

If true, I wonder what the attitude of the Bernie supporters will be.

There's a number of Antiestablishment Bernie supporting Democrats who would rather vote Trump than Hillary, just as there's a number of Establishment Republicans who'd rather vote Hillary than Trump.

These two candidates have turned a lot of assumptions about US elections on their heads. I can still see the possibility of a landslide for either candidate, and can see a turnout between 48% and about 65%. The debates will be as big as the hype leading up to them.

Do we have any info about the likely gender split on turn-out?

Sandpit

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting analysis of 'what needs to get done' wrt Trade as we Brexit:

http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2016/09/christopher-howarths-guide-to-brexit-how-to-re-join-the-world-trading-system.html

That's a comprehensive and well researched piece of analysis.
tl:dr there's a lot to get done, but most of it is doable and relatively straightforward if we put our minds to it.

PlatoSaid

Sinister Farce
To be honest, most of the Momentum steering committee is so posh when they talk about a crèche, I thought they meant a car accident.

Sandpit

619 said:

Sandpit said:

old_labour said:

619 said:

george w h bush has stated he will be voting for clinton.

If true, I wonder what the attitude of the Bernie supporters will be.

There's a number of Antiestablishment Bernie supporting Democrats who would rather vote Trump than Hillary, just as there's a number of Establishment Republicans who'd rather vote Hillary than Trump.

These two candidates have turned a lot of assumptions about US elections on their heads. I can still see the possibility of a landslide for either candidate, and can see a turnout between 48% and about 65%. The debates will be as big as the hype leading up to them.

id say the never trumps are louder and larger than trump voting bernie supporters

Of course you would. Almost every post of yours is ramping Hillary.

619

Innocent_Abroad said:

Sandpit said:

old_labour said:

619 said:

george w h bush has stated he will be voting for clinton.

If true, I wonder what the attitude of the Bernie supporters will be.

There's a number of Antiestablishment Bernie supporting Democrats who would rather vote Trump than Hillary, just as there's a number of Establishment Republicans who'd rather vote Hillary than Trump.

These two candidates have turned a lot of assumptions about US elections on their heads. I can still see the possibility of a landslide for either candidate, and can see a turnout between 48% and about 65%. The debates will be as big as the hype leading up to them.

Do we have any info about the likely gender split on turn-out?

generally, women turn out more than men in US elections

619

Sandpit said:

619 said:

Sandpit said:

old_labour said:

619 said:

george w h bush has stated he will be voting for clinton.

If true, I wonder what the attitude of the Bernie supporters will be.

There's a number of Antiestablishment Bernie supporting Democrats who would rather vote Trump than Hillary, just as there's a number of Establishment Republicans who'd rather vote Hillary than Trump.

These two candidates have turned a lot of assumptions about US elections on their heads. I can still see the possibility of a landslide for either candidate, and can see a turnout between 48% and about 65%. The debates will be as big as the hype leading up to them.

id say the never trumps are louder and larger than trump voting bernie supporters

Of course you would. Almost every post of yours is ramping Hillary.

i think trump is a racist prick who ruin the world if elected. So yes, very much pro clinton

Innocent_Abroad

619 said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Sandpit said:

old_labour said:

619 said:

george w h bush has stated he will be voting for clinton.

If true, I wonder what the attitude of the Bernie supporters will be.

There's a number of Antiestablishment Bernie supporting Democrats who would rather vote Trump than Hillary, just as there's a number of Establishment Republicans who'd rather vote Hillary than Trump.

These two candidates have turned a lot of assumptions about US elections on their heads. I can still see the possibility of a landslide for either candidate, and can see a turnout between 48% and about 65%. The debates will be as big as the hype leading up to them.

Do we have any info about the likely gender split on turn-out?

generally, women turn out more than men in US elections

Thank you. I'd've thought that would be even truer this time...

Sandpit

Innocent_Abroad said:

Sandpit said:

old_labour said:

619 said:

george w h bush has stated he will be voting for clinton.

If true, I wonder what the attitude of the Bernie supporters will be.

There's a number of Antiestablishment Bernie supporting Democrats who would rather vote Trump than Hillary, just as there's a number of Establishment Republicans who'd rather vote Hillary than Trump.

These two candidates have turned a lot of assumptions about US elections on their heads. I can still see the possibility of a landslide for either candidate, and can see a turnout between 48% and about 65%. The debates will be as big as the hype leading up to them.

Do we have any info about the likely gender split on turn-out?

That's a good question, it would be good to see some polling on these sort of questions, but most of the US polls don't publish their data tables in the same way as British pollsters under the BPI do. They also make good use of very small subsamples, in a way that's frowned upon over here. I guess that if anyone is digging for this sort of data, it would be Nate Silver, but he seems to be a little off the boil these days.

Edit: 2012 election stats, turnout was 47% men and 53% women. Men voted 52% Romney, 45% Obama, women voted 55% Obama 44% Romney. Overall was 51/47.

HYUFD

Clinton presently leads by only 3.7% with RCP in Colorado though and with Trump ahead in Florida, Ohio and lowa and less than 1% behind in Nevada and North Carolina if he wins Colorado too he would win the presidency even without Pennsylvania. However with Hillary's national RCP lead at just 0.9% Trump could well win the popular vote but lose the electoral college by a very narrow margin because Hillary holds Colorado and Pennsylvania

SouthamObserver

JennyFreeman said:

SouthamObserver said:

JennyFreeman said:

SouthamObserver said:

JennyFreeman said:

'It is sadly inevitable that events in New York and New Jersey – coming so soon after the anniversary of 9/11 – will be analysed through the prism of the coming election.'

I think this remark shows the kind of supercilious disdain for ordinary voters that characterised the Remain campaign. How dare people drag things like this into an election? This sort of attitude risks contempt for what matters to people at the moment. National security, whether that's under Merkel's let-them-all-in Germany, or bursting Britain, or under attack US, is a serious issue that does matter to people for very good reasons. The fact is that ISIS are hell-bent on the west's destruction. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a deluded fool. So it's not 'sad' that these events influence votes. They are integral to how the hell we sort out the current situation.

Far be it form me to speak for Kieran, but I suspect that his use of "sadly" was meant only to imply that once an issue becomes the subject of back and forth in a presidential election, those directly affected by it - the victims, friends and families - are no longer at the centre of attention. I think that this is sad.

That's very lovely but has nothing to do with what Kieran wrote. Still, if you fancy being his amanuensis ...?

The self-appointed members of the Outrage Police are not necessarily the smartest cookies. As you say capably demonstrate :-)

If I understand your English correctly you're basically sticking an 'Outrage Police' label on anyone who challenges a piece of writing with which you agree, and tacking Ad hominem onto it. Hmmm.

As someone once remarked to me, there's no one so illiberal as a liberal.

I am very happy for you to write and say what you wish. And I will enjoy my right to respond to your views in the way I like. I am afraid the Outrage Police cannot prevent me from doing so :-)

PlatoSaid

Example of Trump ad aimed at black Dems vote

https://t.co/BNOsGSzpkx

frpenkridge

Antidisestablishmentarianism is longer than amanuensis.

619

Innocent_Abroad said:

619 said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Sandpit said:

old_labour said:

619 said:

george w h bush has stated he will be voting for clinton.

If true, I wonder what the attitude of the Bernie supporters will be.

There's a number of Antiestablishment Bernie supporting Democrats who would rather vote Trump than Hillary, just as there's a number of Establishment Republicans who'd rather vote Hillary than Trump.

These two candidates have turned a lot of assumptions about US elections on their heads. I can still see the possibility of a landslide for either candidate, and can see a turnout between 48% and about 65%. The debates will be as big as the hype leading up to them.

Do we have any info about the likely gender split on turn-out?

generally, women turn out more than men in US elections

Thank you. I'd've thought that would be even truer this time...

yeah. may even be a record number of hispanics and a large amount of african american voters this time around

HYUFD

BBC reports today Farron will propose higher taxes to pay for the NHS and a merger of the NHS and social care and a scrapping of primary school SATS. Combined with his commitment to hold a referendum on the Brexit terms he is clearly pitching for moderate social democratic Labour voters who voted for Ed Miliband but for whom Corbyn is too hard Left

GeoffM

foxinsoxuk said:

Moses_ said:

Posted without further comment......

Former soap star Tracy Brabin is favourite to replace murdered Jo Cox as the MP for Batley and Spen after the party revealed its final shortlist.
The 55-year-old actress, who appeared in Coronation Street, Eastenders and Emmerdale is one of two women hoping to win the seat

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3797580/Ex-Coronation-Street-actress-Tracy-Brabin-favourite-replace-murdered-MP-Jo-Cox-Labour-reveals-final-shortlist.html#ixzz4Km3v3oSC

Seems like a good and popular local candidate.

The girl second in from the left is fit. The candidate less so.

Sandpit

GeoffM said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Moses_ said:

Posted without further comment......

Former soap star Tracy Brabin is favourite to replace murdered Jo Cox as the MP for Batley and Spen after the party revealed its final shortlist.
The 55-year-old actress, who appeared in Coronation Street, Eastenders and Emmerdale is one of two women hoping to win the seat

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3797580/Ex-Coronation-Street-actress-Tracy-Brabin-favourite-replace-murdered-MP-Jo-Cox-Labour-reveals-final-shortlist.html#ixzz4Km3v3oSC

Seems like a good and popular local candidate.

The girl second in from the left is fit. The candidate less so.

And dead, unfortunately. Jo Cox.

619

PlatoSaid said:

Example of Trump ad aimed at black Dems vote

https://t.co/BNOsGSzpkx

8 years of birther conspiracy makes this a non starter.

its aimed at traditional educated republicans who hate racists. even so, doubt that would work

PlatoSaid

619 said:

PlatoSaid said:

Example of Trump ad aimed at black Dems vote

https://t.co/BNOsGSzpkx

8 years of birther conspiracy makes this a non starter.

its aimed at traditional educated republicans who hate racists. even so, doubt that would work

As I said, I doubt your nous here - and your very strong opinions render any point you make irrelevant as it's too coloured by personal bias.

Sandpit

Another former Foreign Secretary says bring back a Royal Yacht.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/19/scrapping-the-royal-yacht-britannia-was-self-defeating-short-sig/

"This is the sort of drawing power that money cannot buy, which is precisely why people in control of a great deal of money cannot resist it. It helped me and many other ministers to get a message across about the UK to those who otherwise might never have heard it. It was a small but special floating piece of Britain that they all wanted to visit and never forgot."

PlatoSaid

"And at this, the crowds who were listening cheered again and started chanting: “No more years! No more years!”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/19/welcome-to-momentum-kids-where-you-can-live-happily-ever-after-i/

SquareRoot

So its hold your nose and vote for Hilary then...

IanB2

Sandpit said:

619 said:

Sandpit said:

old_labour said:

619 said:

george w h bush has stated he will be voting for clinton.

If true, I wonder what the attitude of the Bernie supporters will be.

There's a number of Antiestablishment Bernie supporting Democrats who would rather vote Trump than Hillary, just as there's a number of Establishment Republicans who'd rather vote Hillary than Trump.

These two candidates have turned a lot of assumptions about US elections on their heads. I can still see the possibility of a landslide for either candidate, and can see a turnout between 48% and about 65%. The debates will be as big as the hype leading up to them.

id say the never trumps are louder and larger than trump voting bernie supporters

Of course you would. Almost every post of yours is ramping Hillary.

I suggest this is an election where de-ramping will far exceed ramping.

HYUFD

Sandpit said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Sandpit said:

old_labour said:

619 said:

george w h bush has stated he will be voting for clinton.

If true, I wonder what the attitude of the Bernie supporters will be.

There's a number of Antiestablishment Bernie supporting Democrats who would rather vote Trump than Hillary, just as there's a number of Establishment Republicans who'd rather vote Hillary than Trump.

These two candidates have turned a lot of assumptions about US elections on their heads. I can still see the possibility of a landslide for either candidate, and can see a turnout between 48% and about 65%. The debates will be as big as the hype leading up to them.

Do we have any info about the likely gender split on turn-out?

That's a good question, it would be good to see some polling on these sort of questions, but most of the US polls don't publish their data tables in the same way as British pollsters under the BPI do. They also make good use of very small subsamples, in a way that's frowned upon over here. I guess that if anyone is digging for this sort of data, it would be Nate Silver, but he seems to be a little off the boil these days.

Edit: 2012 election stats, turnout was 47% men and 53% women. Men voted 52% Romney, 45% Obama, women voted 55% Obama 44% Romney. Overall was 51/47.

Trump will probably win white men by a bigger margin than any candidate since George W Bush and white non-college educated men by a bigger margin than any candidate since Reagan but it could be women who win it for Hillary, she is likely to do better with college educated white women than Obama did in 2012

PlatoSaid

Have I Got News For You
Momentum Kids release their first learning aid... https://t.co/dqqAbaGWH6