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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump: grinding his way to victory?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump: grinding his way to victory?
The Terminator had nothing on Donald Trump. Relentless, seemingly unstoppable, impervious, unflappable, possessed of a few choice popular catch-phrases, assimilated but still not of this (political) world: the public’s watched in horrified awe as he swept all opposition so far aside.
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEiTKloMgBg
Former leader thought serial rebel was a nuisance not a threat, says party figure"
https://www.ft.com/content/2178afb2-7b64-11e6-ae24-f193b105145e
The problem with this scenario isn't what would happen if Hillary withdrew, it's that Hillary would only withdraw if she was dead, and maybe not even then.
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/sep/17/microsoft-to-close-skypes-uk-office?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/17/meeting-pauline-hansons-voters-silent-screamers-find-their-voice?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
Someone not often mentioned in this connection is Henry Paulson: not so many years ago, US Secretary of the Treasury. Paulson is an intelligent man, educated at the top US universities, albeit whose time in office was controversial. Paulson has written forcefully and organised conferences about many of the defining topics of our age (US-China relations, global warming and conservation, restructuring the financial system). Out of office, he still intervenes in political life.
At this late stage of his vice-presidency, the most realistic route to top executive office requires that Joe Biden must obtain a hair-trigger piston and blast Henry Paulson in the chest, shooting to kill. It would be wise to shoot Paulson only after claiming outrage at his latest public pronouncements, and arranging an illegal duel with him to settle the score - preferably in a state like New Jersey where enforcement of anti-dueling laws is likely to be lax, particularly against a high-profile and powerful politician.
Once the threat of prosecution has receded, probably after his term as VP has come to an end, Biden should seek to exploit the deep civil unrest that has spread across the USA (particularly in the South) or alternatively the heightened tensions along the US-Mexican border. Biden must seek out the British ambassador, or perhaps the Russians or Chinese given the current global balance of power, and request funds and support for a military insurrection in Louisiana, or possible cross-border raiding party to carve out a fresh narco-state in Mexico. Either way, founding a statelet under his armed control gives Biden a sure-fire route to the presidency - albeit not of the US itself.
The main flaw is that, should Biden's plans be intercepted before he is able to execute them, he may be put on trial for treason against the US, or at least the high misdemeanor of planning an attack on a friendly country. However, he'll surely be found not-guilty. It would be difficult to prove that any irregular forces were intended to be directed against a foreign state and cross the border rather than, say, protect property on the U.S. frontier, so the high misdemeanor won't stick. His lawyers can argue that discussing splitting the USA or engaging in conspiracy to do so is insufficient to constitute "treason" unless Biden has undertaken an "overt act" of war - if stopped in his tracks so early, this won't be the case.
Biden must recruit key figures like the Governor of Louisiana prior to the uprising, which increases the risk of being betrayed in the venture. Yet such co-conspirators will clearly be prone to falsify their evidence to play down their own roles and shift blame to Biden - as such, their evidence will laughed out of court as deeply unreliable.
Worst case, should Joe fail to become President of Bideniana, he can quietly return to practising the Law in his home state under a false name.
Note: internal quote deleted because formatting was broken.
Almost every Trumper in my timeline has changed their user name to a variation of it.
I take the point about women voters potentially thinking they woz robbed, but Biden would be having a far easier time in this race. He gaffes from time to time, but they're not devastating ones, and he would be an excellent candidate to put up against Trump.
But like I say this only happens over Hillary Clinton's dead body.
"Whenever the left talks about "racism," it has nothing to do with what's good or bad for black people. It's just another event in the Fabulous White People competition, where black people are the chips... I beat you in blacks yesterday; I'm going to beat you in women today. This is what makes them feel superior to other people, especially other white people...
For decades now, the most important job of anyone covering a presidential election is to unceasingly demand that the Republican candidate disavow David Duke. This laughably irrelevant man must be trotted out as a bogeyman to frighten NPR listeners. Instead of reporting news, journalists have become Official David Duke Disavowal Demanders.
The only way we find out that Duke is still alive is that Republicans are asked to denounce him every four years. For all we know, Duke died 20 years ago and the media are using a body double...
http://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/264189/could-hillary-tell-us-what-percentage-muslims-are-ann-coulter
While Hillary prattles about racism, Trump opens up a rally with "Do You Hear The People Sing."
We are the people. https://t.co/hkKM1Blqbb
Complete with the banner and lyrics! The more I think about it, the funnier it gets - a hit show about revolution.
http://news.sky.com/story/stuntman-successfully-completes-evel-knievel-canyon-jump-10581263
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/poll-donald-trump-edging-hillary-clinton-in-bellwether-florida-county/2293913
"Donald Trump announced today that he is launching a Pro-Life Coalition "to ensure that pro-life voters know where I stand."
There has been skepticism about Trump's candidacy among the pro-life community, with many leader signing a letter during primary season urging for voters to pick anyone but Trump.
In a letter announcing the coalition, Trump pledges to defund Planned Parenthood, despite identifying them previously and doing good work. He also pledges to nominate pro-life justices to the Supreme Court and the make the Hyde Amendment permanent.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/events/elections-2016-live-blog#lf-content=172072172:lb-post-df32f8bb3aa575894b656132d98660c6@livefyre.com
Looking at recent polls in Colorado:
- Emerson has Trump +4
- Ipsos has Trump +3
- SurveyMonkey has a tie in a registered voter poll
- Google Consumer Surveys shows Hillary +7, but this is still a considerable decline from the Hillary +17 that they were showing in mid-August.
So, the trend is very much his friend in Colorado (and all the other swing states).
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/colorado/
When the queues are "normal to quiet" in DC and New York City polling stations, and they're reporting record turnout at rural stations.......
https://guccifer2.wordpress.com/2016/09/15/dems-internal-workings/
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/09/17/upshot/why-the-whole-trump-clinton-election-could-probably-just-be-held-in-pennsylvania.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&referer=
With her polling lead slipping, Hillary Clinton still has Pennsylvania as a firewall — for now.
David Rothschild, an economist at Microsoft Research who runs PredictWise, an online forecasting model that relies on betting markets, explained the primacy of Pennsylvania for Mrs. Clinton’s election chances during an interview this week.
He also discussed the potential importance of the ground game, the perceived failure of betting markets in predicting “Brexit” and the ethics of live forecasting on Election Day, among other topics. Here’s the lightly edited text of our email exchange.
For me, it is hard to see that Trump has more than a 40 per cent chance of winning, so the price does not seem generous.
https://pjmedia.com/trending/2016/09/16/sources-tens-of-thousands-of-files-from-clinton-blumenthal-computers-available-on-deep-web/?singlepage=true
US presidential elections always seem closer compared to UK ones. Clinton has more of a lead at this point than Obama did in either of his election runs, (and Obama beat Romney by 2.9% and was relatively comfortable).
Perhaps Obama is the card to play.,
https://youtu.be/oj4K9fr_WgY
horribillisclusterfuckusI'm quite surprised he has done it as he didnt seem to be that right wing socially, but I guess he needs to secure the votes of the religious right.
With the LA Times tracker seemingly levelling off if that is as bad as it gets for Hilary then my "It's over, this is Trump's to lose" statement may have been overblown.
I've known some Green Party activists and for starry-eyed environmentalists, they can be quite cold and shrewd in their assessment of the realpolitik. They know exactly where they stand in the political eco-system. But I always have a vision of the volunteers in some small campaign office somewhere who take the most the positive view on your typical 3.5% MOE. Another Reuters poll will come out and there'll be high-fives and cheers all around. "Hey, we're on 6%!"
Now, just imagine what Trump might do were he to pull this one off. And I'm beginning to think that he probably will, in fact, do it. Like the fall of the Warsaw Pact and Soviet communism, 2016 has the feeling of the end of an era to it.
FLORIDA .. OHIO .. PENNSYLVANIA
RINSE AND REPEAT
........................................................................
The path to the White House runs through these three states. Trump needs all three and Clinton one.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/gG9nG
http://dailym.ai/2cQiimX
F1: note qualifying (and practice) are an hour later than usual. Qualifying starts at 2pm.
On Farage/Trump: I did say if Trump won then Farage would be the most influential politician of the year. Not even in Parliament, but affecting, significantly, the fates of both the UK and US is very unusual.
58 Gold 33 silver and 35 bronze
Epic by any standards from our paraolympians
I agree with you that it is all about the debates. A bad bout of coughing would be disastrous for Clinton. However, unlike Obama in '08 I think Clinton will actually prepare for the first debate.
http://youtu.be/FEUB8NVPX6I
The rest of the edifice is now looking shaky - the big question is whether, as I suspect, it eventually falls, or if the Governments of the rest of the EU somehow manage to shore it back up again. Next, attention must turn to Italy.
Nevada I gave to Trump in the 270 map.
Lichtman and Russian scientist Volodia Keilis-Borok came up with the keys — a series of true/false statements — in the early 1980s. The idea is that if more than half of the keys are true, the incumbent party will stay in power, and if more than half are false, the challenging party will win the White House.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/12/this-professor-has-predicted-every-presidential-election-since-1984-hes-still-trying-to-figure-out-2016/
Hillary needs to change the momentum of this fairly urgently. And she is not the world's best debater.
Suggestions I'd put forward for ten post-war European politicians more influential than Nigel Farage, in no particular order:
Jean Monnet
Michael Gorbachev
Helmut Kohl
Charles de Gaulle
Jacques Delors
Konrad Adenauer
Margaret Thatcher
Lech Walensa
Joseph Stalin
Angela Merkel
@foxinsoxuk. - Thanks. Been a little off colour recently.
Sadly there will be no ARSE4US. Have a few "procedures" coming up and R&R after. So lurking more and commenting much less if at all in the coming months.
On POTUS follow :
1. FOP
2. Reliable state polls with correct demographics.
3. Follow the money, visits and 538.
That's the winning formula ..
I agree that it is possible Trump will go too far and self destruct. So he could lose. I just don't see how Hillary wins by herself.
One other State that is interesting is North Carolina. At the moment the default assumption is that Trump wins that as Republicans usually do but it seems extremely close and he cannot win without it.
Heck, even Edith Chretien or however you spell it should surely rank ahead of Farage. He talked about the issues in Europe, she helped create them.
I still can't get over her parading illegal immigrants on stage at her convention. Imagine if Labour did that here?!
Unfortunately neither candidate possesses the charm, wit, sophistication or independence of the real Muppets.
I have noticed though the rhetoric that was commonly written on this site by Remainers in the run up to the referendum is now being repeated in regard to Trump. Essentially use the racist
deplorableslabel when all other attack lines seem to have failed.If she loses, I'd put it down to her time as SoS. She was too visible. I wonder if she regrets having done that role, which is much worse than being a VP as you actually have to make decisions.
(I know Trump isn't fresh either, but his is a very different type of candidature).
But the point you make is right: all those listed changed Europe in major ways through their decisions, and were absolutely instrumental in affecting that direction change. While I wouldn't underplay Farage's significance - he's one of the more important British 21st century politicians - he was already swimming with the tide. Those listed had such gravity that changed the tides.