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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Boundaries of Wales : 1950 – 2010

SystemSystem Posts: 11,713
edited September 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Boundaries of Wales : 1950 – 2010

The boundary changes to be announced tonight (and to the MP’s from England and Wales today) will see the first reduction in the number of seats in Wales since the Great Reform Act of 1832 and see Wales be reduced from forty seats to just twenty nine (it’s lowest number since the Great Reform Act) and will the be fifth set of boundary changes since true democracy (one elector, one…

Read the full story here


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  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited September 2016
    Cheers Mr Hayfield - Great work yet again.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Thanks Harry. Also, Anthony Wells of UKPR will probably release a spreadsheet very soon detailing how each new constituency would have voted on the new boundaries.
  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Why was Wales not truly democratic prior to 1950?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The BIG story of the day...

    @janinegibson: Whaaaat? If this is true, then everyone associated with this deal has lost their mind. https://t.co/LPUI77Z6oq https://t.co/cHb8DwiMAO
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,197
    Some interesting data there Mr Hayfield.

    Hillary just tweeted she is feeling better and like most of those who have been off sick, happy to get back to work and back on the trail!
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Ishmael_X said:

    Why was Wales not truly democratic prior to 1950?

    University seats.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,195
    HYUFD said:

    Some interesting data there Mr Hayfield.

    Hillary just tweeted she is feeling better and like most of those who have been off sick, happy to get back to work and back on the trail!

    She was careful to avoid any typos on the final word.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    HYUFD said:

    Some interesting data there Mr Hayfield.

    Hillary just tweeted she is feeling better and like most of those who have been off sick, happy to get back to work and back on the trail!

    So she's off to California in the morning?
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Ishmael_X said:

    Why was Wales not truly democratic prior to 1950?

    The Borough and University seats were abolished.
  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    HYUFD said:

    Some interesting data there Mr Hayfield.

    Hillary just tweeted she is feeling better and like most of those who have been off sick, happy to get back to work and back on the trail!

    She has just tweeted "Thanks to everyone who’s reached out with well wishes! I’m feeling fine and getting better. -H"

    So the first 7 words of your post are accurate. Where are you getting the rest?
  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited September 2016
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Why was Wales not truly democratic prior to 1950?

    The Borough and University seats were abolished.
    Thank you! And @Alistair.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some interesting data there Mr Hayfield.

    Hillary just tweeted she is feeling better and like most of those who have been off sick, happy to get back to work and back on the trail!

    She was careful to avoid any typos on the final word.
    Hmm

    Bill Clinton will be taking over for Hillary at her two LA fundraisers tomorrow and her Las Vegas campaign event Wednesday, says an aide
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Ishmael_X said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Why was Wales not truly democratic prior to 1950?

    The Borough and University seats were abolished.
    Thank you!
    During the AV campaign it was infuriating that people who were alive prior to 1950 were tearfully rending their garments at the sad end to Britain's proud, pure tradition of one man one vote as if it was some ancient thing given they'd been around when one man could have quite a few votes, some of them via STV.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,974
    edited September 2016
    Great work @HarryHayfield, you're going to have a busy few days coming up!
  • Options
    SandraMSandraM Posts: 206
    Scott_P said:

    The BIG story of the day...

    @janinegibson: Whaaaat? If this is true, then everyone associated with this deal has lost their mind. https://t.co/LPUI77Z6oq https://t.co/cHb8DwiMAO

    Over on twitter this is being compared to the privatisation of the NHS and British Rail. There is even a mock-up of Jeremy Corbyn sitting down in the GBBO tent.

  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    "Donald Trump is leading Hillary Clinton by about 3 percentage points, according to a UPI/CVoter daily presidential tracking poll released Monday.

    The online survey of more than 1,200 likely voters and nearly 600 others said 48.7 percent would support Trump if the election were held today, and 45.8 percent would support Clinton.

    The polling organization said Clinton previously held a 2-point lead in the "Presidential Tracker 2016" survey, but Trump tightened the race on the last day data was collected.

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/trump-leads-clinton-by-3-points-in-latest-daily-tracking-poll/article/2601557?custom_click=rss
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    https://twitter.com/deep_beige/status/775319136725499904

    Romney got 40℅
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited September 2016
    Sorting out the disgraceful over-representation of Welsh voters in parliament is one of the most urgent tasks facing the Boundary Commission, so the Lord be praised that (at last) it is happening - the fact that Wales goes from 40 (out of 650) to 29 (out of 600) seats shows just how abysmal the imbalance had become.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/deep_beige/status/775319136725499904

    Romney got 40℅

    Problem is AFL-CIO has endorsed Hillary so their numbers are suspect.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Meanwhile speculation is growing about Hillary within her OWN party:

    https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedAndrew/status/775436611127476224
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,197
    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some interesting data there Mr Hayfield.

    Hillary just tweeted she is feeling better and like most of those who have been off sick, happy to get back to work and back on the trail!

    She was careful to avoid any typos on the final word.
    Indeed
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,197
    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some interesting data there Mr Hayfield.

    Hillary just tweeted she is feeling better and like most of those who have been off sick, happy to get back to work and back on the trail!

    So she's off to California in the morning?
    By video link maybe
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,197
    Ishmael_X said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some interesting data there Mr Hayfield.

    Hillary just tweeted she is feeling better and like most of those who have been off sick, happy to get back to work and back on the trail!

    She has just tweeted "Thanks to everyone who’s reached out with well wishes! I’m feeling fine and getting better. -H"

    So the first 7 words of your post are accurate. Where are you getting the rest?
    Her second tweet!
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,640
    SandraM said:

    Scott_P said:

    The BIG story of the day...

    @janinegibson: Whaaaat? If this is true, then everyone associated with this deal has lost their mind. https://t.co/LPUI77Z6oq https://t.co/cHb8DwiMAO

    Over on twitter this is being compared to the privatisation of the NHS and British Rail. There is even a mock-up of Jeremy Corbyn sitting down in the GBBO tent.

    People are absolutely furious about this on my Twitter feed. Don't upset middle England, they'll destroy you in the politest way possible.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,434
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sorting out the disgraceful over-representation of Welsh voters in parliament is one of the most urgent tasks facing the Boundary Commission, so the Lord be praised that (at last) it is happening - the fact that Wales goes from 40 (out of 650) to 29 (out of 600) seats shows just how abysmal the imbalance had become.

    Surely Labour are going to lose 7-8 seats in Wales alone? Ouch. Sub 200 beckons.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited September 2016
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    SandraM said:

    Scott_P said:

    The BIG story of the day...

    @janinegibson: Whaaaat? If this is true, then everyone associated with this deal has lost their mind. https://t.co/LPUI77Z6oq https://t.co/cHb8DwiMAO

    Over on twitter this is being compared to the privatisation of the NHS and British Rail. There is even a mock-up of Jeremy Corbyn sitting down in the GBBO tent.

    People are absolutely furious about this on my Twitter feed. Don't upset middle England, they'll destroy you in the politest way possible.
    Its not like its off to Sky, its only popping over to the other publicly owned tv network and freely available (as long as you have paid your telly tax).
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    DavidL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sorting out the disgraceful over-representation of Welsh voters in parliament is one of the most urgent tasks facing the Boundary Commission, so the Lord be praised that (at last) it is happening - the fact that Wales goes from 40 (out of 650) to 29 (out of 600) seats shows just how abysmal the imbalance had become.

    Surely Labour are going to lose 7-8 seats in Wales alone? Ouch. Sub 200 beckons.
    By some strange and I'm sure entirely innocent coincidence, the two areas where voters are heavily over-represented happen to be Labour strongholds - Wales and the North East.
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Really pleased to see the BBC have lost Bake Off:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/775436818602921984
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    MP_SE said:

    Really pleased to see the BBC have lost Bake Off:

    twitter.com/SkyNews/status/775436818602921984

    Well at least they still have Top Gear....
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,640
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    SandraM said:

    Scott_P said:

    The BIG story of the day...

    @janinegibson: Whaaaat? If this is true, then everyone associated with this deal has lost their mind. https://t.co/LPUI77Z6oq https://t.co/cHb8DwiMAO

    Over on twitter this is being compared to the privatisation of the NHS and British Rail. There is even a mock-up of Jeremy Corbyn sitting down in the GBBO tent.

    People are absolutely furious about this on my Twitter feed. Don't upset middle England, they'll destroy you in the politest way possible.
    Its not like its off to Sky, its only popping over to the other publicly owned tv network and freely available (as long as you have paid your telly tax).
    The spectre of adverts (how common), the probable loss of at least one presenter (the production company didn't bother to consult them, and several have indicated they'd be for the off) and the sometimes dubious quality of other C4 productions have people in something of a tizzy.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    DavidL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sorting out the disgraceful over-representation of Welsh voters in parliament is one of the most urgent tasks facing the Boundary Commission, so the Lord be praised that (at last) it is happening - the fact that Wales goes from 40 (out of 650) to 29 (out of 600) seats shows just how abysmal the imbalance had become.

    Surely Labour are going to lose 7-8 seats in Wales alone? Ouch. Sub 200 beckons.
    Labour's problem is the contiguity of its seats. It will be hard to palm off losses onto other parties when there are substantial areas of Wales where Labour is relatively weak. It has similar problems in London and the north west.

    If Britain were less politically divided on geography, the impact on Labour would be less severe.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,434
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    DavidL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sorting out the disgraceful over-representation of Welsh voters in parliament is one of the most urgent tasks facing the Boundary Commission, so the Lord be praised that (at last) it is happening - the fact that Wales goes from 40 (out of 650) to 29 (out of 600) seats shows just how abysmal the imbalance had become.

    Surely Labour are going to lose 7-8 seats in Wales alone? Ouch. Sub 200 beckons.
    By some strange and I'm sure entirely innocent coincidence, the two areas where voters are heavily over-represented happen to be Labour strongholds - Wales and the North East.
    Yes, the fact we had a Labour government for much of that time has nothing at all to do with the fact that we are operating on boundaries 20 years out of date. It will be infuriating if these boundaries are not corrected for the next election.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,146
    As ever, thanks Harry.

    Off-topic:
    Here's a rather awesome 3D representation of the interior of the Apollo 11 Lunar Command Module. Amazing detail.
    http://3d.si.edu/apollo11cm/boxes/play-cm-ext-rc6-int-rc5/cm-interior.html

    It might require a fairly powerful computer to run well ...

    Linked to from Bezos's account. Guess that's another hint he's aiming for the moon.

    With Elon Musk (SpaceX) hurling big rockets to Mars, and Jeff Bezos (Blue Origin) hurling big rockets to the Moon, it feels like we're in a space race again!
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    DavidL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sorting out the disgraceful over-representation of Welsh voters in parliament is one of the most urgent tasks facing the Boundary Commission, so the Lord be praised that (at last) it is happening - the fact that Wales goes from 40 (out of 650) to 29 (out of 600) seats shows just how abysmal the imbalance had become.

    Surely Labour are going to lose 7-8 seats in Wales alone? Ouch. Sub 200 beckons.
    Anthony Wells blogged the following the other night, concerning the abandoned 2013 review:

    "...we can work out what the party partisan impact would have been. If the boundaries had been in place at the last election the Conservatives would have won 9 fewer seats, Labour would have won 28 less, the Lib Dems only four. Overall the Conservatives would have won a much healthier majority of 44 seats."

    The effect ought to be broadly similar this time around, too. Now all you have to do is start with those base numbers, and then factor in how many of the remaining seats which Labour notionally controls could be lost, if things carry on as they are...
  • Options
    Ally_BAlly_B Posts: 185
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Ally_B said:



    AGW comments are akin to those of people who (used to) argue that smoking didn't really damage health. Once the balance of probabilities suggests that we are causing it then if you wait until you have unequivocal data then another x-million people die from that failure to act. You don't wait, you act. I'm an engineer, I don't wait for things to break before I fix them and I look for solutions once I realise there is a problem.

    I have a theory that 'expertise' founders upon matters that are simply too complex, with too many moving parts, for one person to comprehend fully. As an engineer, I'm sure you're a dab hand at dismantling a washing machine and re-assembling it, but I'm afraid I don't set any more store by your views on AGW than those of a greengrocer.

    By the same token, I'd trust a surgeon to do keyhole on my knee, but not necessarily a doctor to tell me what's wrong with my body and what to do about it. Too much going on; too many different moving parts. It's really just guesswork.
    You need of some education as to what an engineer is. Engineers don't dismantle equipment they tell people what is wrong and others do the dissassembling. That is what a qualified Engineer does so your analogy as to what we are re-surgeons is correct. As an engineer I'll ascertain a fix for your problem and then get the technicians to carry out the necessary repairs. A big problem in this country is the failure to appreciate engineering is not fixing a broken piece of equipment, it is fixing something BEFORE it becomes a broken piece of equipment. And no, your theory is wrong so your conclusions fail at that point.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Christian May
    EXCLUSIVE: Osborne plots Northern Powerhouse think tank https://t.co/m4IVDH4slr
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I expect a few Tory rebels from Wales re-the boundary changes. Apparently a few in the North West are also unhappy.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    PlatoSaid said:

    Christian May
    EXCLUSIVE: Osborne plots Northern Powerhouse think tank https://t.co/m4IVDH4slr

    Do we really need yet another think tank?
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The Times front page reports that David Cameron is to work on his autobiography. That will be a cross for Theresa May to bear, I'm sure.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    PlatoSaid said:

    Christian May
    EXCLUSIVE: Osborne plots Northern Powerhouse think tank https://t.co/m4IVDH4slr

    Maybe he'll run for Mayor of Manchester.

    Guffaw.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Times front page reports that David Cameron is to work on his autobiography. That will be a cross for Theresa May to bear, I'm sure.

    I wonder what he will say about Lord Ashcroft?
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Times front page reports that David Cameron is to work on his autobiography. That will be a cross for Theresa May to bear, I'm sure.

    I wonder what he will say about Lord Ashcroft?
    If he is astute, he will not mention him once. That would annoy his lordship far more than any broadside.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    AlastairMeeks said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Times front page reports that David Cameron is to work on his autobiography. That will be a cross for Theresa May to bear, I'm sure.

    I wonder what he will say about Lord Ashcroft?
    If he is astute, he will not mention him once. That would annoy his lordship far more than any broadside.
    Better still, mention him in a footnote about the inaccuracies of polling.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Winston Churchill had to wait until he was 65 to become prime minister. Cameron is out of politics before the age of 50.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Cameron departing is no surprise at all, but Osborne's next moves are more interesting. I expect he'll lie low and bide his time, waiting for his enemies (and, sadly, Theresa May has decided to become one of those) to screw up.
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    JosiasJessop said:

    As ever, thanks Harry.

    Off-topic:
    Here's a rather awesome 3D representation of the interior of the Apollo 11 Lunar Command Module. Amazing detail.
    http://3d.si.edu/apollo11cm/boxes/play-cm-ext-rc6-int-rc5/cm-interior.html

    It might require a fairly powerful computer to run well ...

    Linked to from Bezos's account. Guess that's another hint he's aiming for the moon.

    With Elon Musk (SpaceX) hurling big rockets to Mars, and Jeff Bezos (Blue Origin) hurling big rockets to the Moon, it feels like we're in a space race again!

    Awesome, Mr J., So many buttons and switches I wonder how the remembered which was which.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    DavidL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    DavidL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sorting out the disgraceful over-representation of Welsh voters in parliament is one of the most urgent tasks facing the Boundary Commission, so the Lord be praised that (at last) it is happening - the fact that Wales goes from 40 (out of 650) to 29 (out of 600) seats shows just how abysmal the imbalance had become.

    Surely Labour are going to lose 7-8 seats in Wales alone? Ouch. Sub 200 beckons.
    By some strange and I'm sure entirely innocent coincidence, the two areas where voters are heavily over-represented happen to be Labour strongholds - Wales and the North East.
    Yes, the fact we had a Labour government for much of that time has nothing at all to do with the fact that we are operating on boundaries 20 years out of date. It will be infuriating if these boundaries are not corrected for the next election.
    Presumably the only thing that can now prevent this is a rebellion on the Government side? I'm currently working on the assumption that the net effect of the review will wipe out fewer Tory safe seats than the total number of likely retirees, so all existing MPs can be shuffled about and kept happy. It would certainly be a huge act of self-harm if the Conservatives didn't get the reforms through.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    DavidL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    DavidL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sorting out the disgraceful over-representation of Welsh voters in parliament is one of the most urgent tasks facing the Boundary Commission, so the Lord be praised that (at last) it is happening - the fact that Wales goes from 40 (out of 650) to 29 (out of 600) seats shows just how abysmal the imbalance had become.

    Surely Labour are going to lose 7-8 seats in Wales alone? Ouch. Sub 200 beckons.
    By some strange and I'm sure entirely innocent coincidence, the two areas where voters are heavily over-represented happen to be Labour strongholds - Wales and the North East.
    Yes, the fact we had a Labour government for much of that time has nothing at all to do with the fact that we are operating on boundaries 20 years out of date. It will be infuriating if these boundaries are not corrected for the next election.
    Quite. We're not quite two cows and a three shepherds or whatever Old Sarum was, but it's bonkers and a manifest injustice. And I speak as one whose vote value is being (rightly) reduced.
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Christian May
    EXCLUSIVE: Osborne plots Northern Powerhouse think tank https://t.co/m4IVDH4slr

    Do we really need yet another think tank?
    No.

    There are more than enough think tanks.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    AndyJS said:

    Winston Churchill had to wait until he was 65 to become prime minister. Cameron is out of politics before the age of 50.

    It is a little early to judge. At 48 Winston Churchill was "without an office, without a seat, without a party and without an appendix". Who knows what the future will bring for David Cameron?
  • Options
    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,914
    Ally_B said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Ally_B said:



    AGW comments are akin to those of people who (used to) argue that smoking didn't really damage health. Once the balance of probabilities suggests that we are causing it then if you wait until you have unequivocal data then another x-million people die from that failure to act. You don't wait, you act. I'm an engineer, I don't wait for things to break before I fix them and I look for solutions once I realise there is a problem.

    I have a theory that 'expertise' founders upon matters that are simply too complex, with too many moving parts, for one person to comprehend fully. As an engineer, I'm sure you're a dab hand at dismantling a washing machine and re-assembling it, but I'm afraid I don't set any more store by your views on AGW than those of a greengrocer.

    By the same token, I'd trust a surgeon to do keyhole on my knee, but not necessarily a doctor to tell me what's wrong with my body and what to do about it. Too much going on; too many different moving parts. It's really just guesswork.
    You need of some education as to what an engineer is. Engineers don't dismantle equipment they tell people what is wrong and others do the dissassembling. That is what a qualified Engineer does so your analogy as to what we are re-surgeons is correct. As an engineer I'll ascertain a fix for your problem and then get the technicians to carry out the necessary repairs. A big problem in this country is the failure to appreciate engineering is not fixing a broken piece of equipment, it is fixing something BEFORE it becomes a broken piece of equipment. And no, your theory is wrong so your conclusions fail at that point.
    Yup, I was thinking exactly the same thing. Say "engineer" in Germany or France, and people will think of someone who, say, designs engine components or bridge structures. Say "engineer" in the UK, and the image is of someone who can fix a washing machine or mend a lawnmower. Technical expertise is very undervalued here.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    MP_SE said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Christian May
    EXCLUSIVE: Osborne plots Northern Powerhouse think tank https://t.co/m4IVDH4slr

    Do we really need yet another think tank?
    No.

    There are more than enough think tanks.
    Many of them short on the thinking...
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Cameron departing is no surprise at all, but Osborne's next moves are more interesting. I expect he'll lie low and bide his time, waiting for his enemies (and, sadly, Theresa May has decided to become one of those) to screw up.

    I think you'll find she has become his leader.

    If Osborne chooses to take the rebukes he was due for divisive approach to both campaigning during the Euro Ref and the last budget badly, that is his own problem.

    May is, rightly, far more popular than Osborne.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Cameron departing is no surprise at all, but Osborne's next moves are more interesting. I expect he'll lie low and bide his time, waiting for his enemies (and, sadly, Theresa May has decided to become one of those) to screw up.

    Yeah, and then what? Who on earth is going to want him back?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Ally_B said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Ally_B said:



    AGW comments are akin to those of people who (used to) argue that smoking didn't really damage health. Once the balance of probabilities suggests that we are causing it then if you wait until you have unequivocal data then another x-million people die from that failure to act. You don't wait, you act. I'm an engineer, I don't wait for things to break before I fix them and I look for solutions once I realise there is a problem.

    I have a theory that 'expertise' founders upon matters that are simply too complex, with too many moving parts, for one person to comprehend fully. As an engineer, I'm sure you're a dab hand at dismantling a washing machine and re-assembling it, but I'm afraid I don't set any more store by your views on AGW than those of a greengrocer.

    By the same token, I'd trust a surgeon to do keyhole on my knee, but not necessarily a doctor to tell me what's wrong with my body and what to do about it. Too much going on; too many different moving parts. It's really just guesswork.
    You need of some education as to what an engineer is. Engineers don't dismantle equipment they tell people what is wrong and others do the dissassembling. That is what a qualified Engineer does so your analogy as to what we are re-surgeons is correct. As an engineer I'll ascertain a fix for your problem and then get the technicians to carry out the necessary repairs. A big problem in this country is the failure to appreciate engineering is not fixing a broken piece of equipment, it is fixing something BEFORE it becomes a broken piece of equipment. And no, your theory is wrong so your conclusions fail at that point.
    Yup, I was thinking exactly the same thing. Say "engineer" in Germany or France, and people will think of someone who, say, designs engine components or bridge structures. Say "engineer" in the UK, and the image is of someone who can fix a washing machine or mend a lawnmower. Technical expertise is very undervalued here.
    Say "engineer" in Germany or France, and people will think of someone who, say, designs engine components or bridge structures....or potential political leader...
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Very disappointing

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/islamophobia-uk-muslim-officers-extremist-views-ignored-met-police-a7237786.html
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited September 2016
    Mortimer said:

    May is, rightly, far more popular than Osborne.

    For now. But her gratuitously rude treatment of one of the greatest post-war Chancellors - who more than anyone was responsible for the fact that we have a Conservative government in the first place - was a notable miscalculation and entirely unnecessary.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2016
    O/T:

    Tomorrow could be the hottest September day since 31 degrees was recorded in Gillingham, Kent in 1973.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/sep/12/hottest-september-day-since-1973-weather-forecast-uk
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mortimer said:

    May is, rightly, far more popular than Osborne.

    For now. But her gratuitously rude treatment of one of the greatest post-war Chancellors - who more than anyone was responsible for the fact that we have a Conservative government in the first place - was a notable miscalculation and entirely unnecessary.
    Hahaha.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited September 2016
    Guaridan TV..I mean Newsnight...wrong as the Guardian....just claimed Top Gear had left the BBC. I know it was shit, but it most definitely still on BBC.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    HYUFD said:

    Some interesting data there Mr Hayfield.

    Hillary just tweeted she is feeling better and like most of those who have been off sick, happy to get back to work and back on the trail!

    Praise the Lord! It's a miracle I tell yer, a miracle!
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    AlastairMeeks said:

    AndyJS said:

    Winston Churchill had to wait until he was 65 to become prime minister. Cameron is out of politics before the age of 50.

    It is a little early to judge. At 48 Winston Churchill was "without an office, without a seat, without a party and without an appendix". Who knows what the future will bring for David Cameron?
    If we see Cameron back in government I'll buy you a very nice bottle of champagne.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited September 2016
    HurstLlama said:

    Yeah, and then what? Who on earth is going to want him back?

    Let's wait and see. Who knows how the whirligig of time will spin? The most likely outcome is that 2010-2016 will be seen as the golden age compared with what came before or after, but, whatever happens, Theresa May would have been very well advised to remember the dictum of one of her most illustrious predecessors:

    http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/w/winstonchu161541.html
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    HurstLlama said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Cameron departing is no surprise at all, but Osborne's next moves are more interesting. I expect he'll lie low and bide his time, waiting for his enemies (and, sadly, Theresa May has decided to become one of those) to screw up.

    Yeah, and then what? Who on earth is going to want him back?
    All those backbench Tory MPs holding his Job IOU's?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    MP_SE said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Christian May
    EXCLUSIVE: Osborne plots Northern Powerhouse think tank https://t.co/m4IVDH4slr

    Do we really need yet another think tank?
    No.

    There are more than enough think tanks.
    When someone says to me "think tank", I imagine an armoured tracked vehicle with a gun on top.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    MarqueeMark said:

    MP_SE said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Christian May
    EXCLUSIVE: Osborne plots Northern Powerhouse think tank https://t.co/m4IVDH4slr

    Do we really need yet another think tank?
    No.

    There are more than enough think tanks.
    When someone says to me "think tank", I imagine an armoured tracked vehicle with a gun on top.
    If think tanks were more popular in Heath's day, do you think he would have founded one?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    Tomorrow could be the hottest September day since 31 degrees was recorded in Gillingham, Kent in 1973.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/sep/12/hottest-september-day-since-1973-weather-forecast-uk

    Keep Hillary indoors then.

    Or is she cured? I lose track....
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mortimer said:

    May is, rightly, far more popular than Osborne.

    For now. But her gratuitously rude treatment of one of the greatest post-war Chancellors - who more than anyone was responsible for the fact that we have a Conservative government in the first place - was a notable miscalculation and entirely unnecessary.
    I wasn't aware she was rude to Gordon.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Jonathan said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mortimer said:

    May is, rightly, far more popular than Osborne.

    For now. But her gratuitously rude treatment of one of the greatest post-war Chancellors - who more than anyone was responsible for the fact that we have a Conservative government in the first place - was a notable miscalculation and entirely unnecessary.
    I wasn't aware she was rude to Gordon.
    I didn't know Ken Clarke went by a nick name!
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Jonathan said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mortimer said:

    May is, rightly, far more popular than Osborne.

    For now. But her gratuitously rude treatment of one of the greatest post-war Chancellors - who more than anyone was responsible for the fact that we have a Conservative government in the first place - was a notable miscalculation and entirely unnecessary.
    I wasn't aware she was rude to Gordon.
    I see your mistake. Yes, I suppose Gordon Brown was more responsible than anyone for the fact that we have a Conservative government, but that's not quite what I meant.
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    MarqueeMark said:

    MP_SE said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Christian May
    EXCLUSIVE: Osborne plots Northern Powerhouse think tank https://t.co/m4IVDH4slr

    Do we really need yet another think tank?
    No.

    There are more than enough think tanks.
    When someone says to me "think tank", I imagine an armoured tracked vehicle with a gun on top.
    I like to imagine a large goldfish bowl on tracks with 3 or 4 people squashed inside
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited September 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    "Donald Trump is leading Hillary Clinton by about 3 percentage points, according to a UPI/CVoter daily presidential tracking poll released Monday.

    The online survey of more than 1,200 likely voters and nearly 600 others said 48.7 percent would support Trump if the election were held today, and 45.8 percent would support Clinton.

    The polling organization said Clinton previously held a 2-point lead in the "Presidential Tracker 2016" survey, but Trump tightened the race on the last day data was collected.

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/trump-leads-clinton-by-3-points-in-latest-daily-tracking-poll/article/2601557?custom_click=rss

    There are 3 IPSOS polls - Clinton +7 then +5 then +2

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/JMC_FL_Sept_2016.pdf is the poll result for Florida.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,427
    justin124 said:

    I expect a few Tory rebels from Wales re-the boundary changes. Apparently a few in the North West are also unhappy.

    More for the Lords and change the balance in favour of the conservatives !!
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    Crickey...Kristy Walk comparing Clinton health issues to Paralympics...
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    edited September 2016
    I think of this...

    https://s13.postimg.org/6dpjb6vef/20160912_230110.jpg
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    ABC
    .@realDonaldTrump supporters come on stage at Trump rally to respond to Clinton's "deplorables" comment: https://t.co/nLc7doOvbp
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,195
    Has JackW commented since Hillary's collapse?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2016
    Maybe Bake Off had to move to C4 because the presenters weren't getting enough dough.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited September 2016
    "Love Productions set a price tag of £20million for the rights of the series - but the BBC only offered £15million which also include the rights to its sister show An Extra Slice."

    I am sure they could find £5 million...Yentob probably cost the BBC a good chunk of that a year.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited September 2016
    Did Newsnight really get through the whole show with only a mention of Cameron in the closing credits?

    I thought Newnsight was a serious political show.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Did Newsnight really get through with only a mention of Cameron in the closing credits? I thought Newnsight was a serious political show.

    Sometimes they like to ignore the main story of the day.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    "The polling organization said Clinton previously held a 2-point lead in the "Presidential Tracker 2016" survey, but Trump tightened the race on the last day data was collected"

    If trump changed a 2 point deficit for 5 days to a 2.8% lead IN THE LAST DAY (11th September) - that is massive.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    PlatoSaid said:

    Very disappointing

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/islamophobia-uk-muslim-officers-extremist-views-ignored-met-police-a7237786.html

    A police chief called for female police officers to be allowed to wear the full burqa a few days ago. Apparently precisely zero officers had actually requested this.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited September 2016
    AndyJS said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Very disappointing

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/islamophobia-uk-muslim-officers-extremist-views-ignored-met-police-a7237786.html

    A police chief called for female police officers to be allowed to wear the full burqa a few days ago. Apparently precisely zero officers had actually requested this.
    Classic, I'm offended / standing up for your beliefs on your behalf even though I haven't asked you what you think....
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    What a magnificent thread header from Mr Hayfield. Wow - well done.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    MarqueeMark said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    Tomorrow could be the hottest September day since 31 degrees was recorded in Gillingham, Kent in 1973.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/sep/12/hottest-september-day-since-1973-weather-forecast-uk

    Keep Hillary indoors then.

    Or is she cured? I lose track....
    She SAYS she's feeling a lot better.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Oliver D'Arcy
    NY Post: Clinton team avoided ER to conceal details of her medical treatment https://t.co/qJIBZ7oAAk https://t.co/nxPusUR822
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Has anyone else got a sense of deja vu?

    https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/775340330820534273

    Just a month ago everybody talked and even complained that Trump should drop out, now everyone has an issue with Hillary, even her staff.

    Just replace the name Trump with Hillary on reports from a month ago and they would be very similar.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2016
    O/T:

    I don't know whether there are any Fifteen To One fans on PB, but if there are here's the Grand Final from Series 8 on Friday 20th December 1991, the first series where in the final round all 40 questions were on the buzzer:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6iEAOBMJyQ

    And this is the Grand Final from Series 22 on Friday 10th April 1998:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=qghPvvum1pg
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited September 2016
    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    I don't know whether there are any Fifteen To One fans on PB, but if there are here's the Grand Final from Series 8 on Friday 20th December 1991, the first series where in the final round all 40 questions were on the buzzer:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6iEAOBMJyQ

    And this is the Grand Final from Series 22 on Friday 10th April 1998:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=qghPvvum1pg

    I seemed to remember a guy winning two series of that show with incredible scores because in the final 3 stage of the qualifier and the final, he basically went buzzer, question, question, question, question, question, question, question, question....
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    SirBenjaminSirBenjamin Posts: 238
    And we're off. The new boundaries for England are out. I'll probably be up all night working on counter-proposals...

    http://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/2018-review/ip-england/
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Boundary review is now available, but the site seems to be down:

    http://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/2018-review/ip-england/
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    AndyJS said:

    Boundary review is now available, but the site seems to be down:

    http://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/2018-review/ip-england/

    I can't get it to work.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    SirBenjamin said:

    And we're off. The new boundaries for England are out. I'll probably be up all night working on counter-proposals...

    http://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/2018-review/ip-england/

    I have been having a nose at my part of the world already. They have bolted a lump of Cambridgeshire onto NE Herts, and not changed the constituency name, damn 'em! Definitely cause for a green ink e-mail.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Link to the new constituencies in spreadsheet form:

    http://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/IP_constituencies_changes.xlsx
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Birmingham constituencies (9):

    Birmingham Brandwood BC
    Billesley
    Brandwood
    Kings Norton
    Springfield

    Birmingham Edgbaston BC
    Edgbaston
    Harborne
    Quinton
    Sparkbrook
    Abbey

    Birmingham Erdington BC
    Erdington
    Kingstanding
    Stockland Green
    Oscott
    Pheasey Park Farm

    Birmingham Hodge Hill BC
    Bordesley Green
    Hodge Hill
    Shard End
    Washwood Heath

    Birmingham Ladywood BC
    Tyburn
    Ladywood
    Nechells
    Soho
    Soho and Victoria

    Birmingham Northfield BC
    Moseley and Kings Heath
    Longbridge
    Northfield
    Bournville

    Birmingham Perry Barr BC
    Aston
    Handsworth Wood
    Lozells and East Handsworth
    Perry Barr
    Newton

    Birmingham Selly Oak and Halesowen BC
    Bartley Green
    Weoley
    Selly Oak
    Belle Vale
    Halesowen North
    Halesowen South

    Birmingham Yardley BC
    Hall Green
    Acocks Green
    South Yardley
    Stechford and Yardley North
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Chelmsley Wood and Solihull North BC
    Sheldon
    Bickenhill
    Castle Bromwich
    Chelmsley Wood
    Kingshurst and Fordbridge
    Smith's Wood
    Elmdon
    Lyndon
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,887
    Big changes to Broxtowe...
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Details from London review confirm loss of six seats, and a single Islington seat derived primarily from that of Emily Thornberry, i.e. Corbyn's Islington North is broken up. Reports in press have suggested Poplar and Limehouse as a likely new base for Corbyn, as the sitting MP is thought likely to retire.

    Eastern England loses only one seat, in Essex. As per previous suggestions, this appears to include a substantial redrawing of Clacton, to make a new Harwich and Clacton seat. This is thought to be very negative for Douglas Carswell's chances of staying on after 2020.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Black_Rook said:

    Details from London review confirm loss of six seats, and a single Islington seat derived primarily from that of Emily Thornberry, i.e. Corbyn's Islington North is broken up. Reports in press have suggested Poplar and Limehouse as a likely new base for Corbyn, as the sitting MP is thought likely to retire.

    Eastern England loses only one seat, in Essex. As per previous suggestions, this appears to include a substantial redrawing of Clacton, to make a new Harwich and Clacton seat. This is thought to be very negative for Douglas Carswell's chances of staying on after 2020.

    Thought to be by who? Anyway, that's a re-creation of the Harwich seat which always existed before 2010. I think Carswell would have a good chance of holding it, particularly if Bernard Jenkin is standing elsewhere.
This discussion has been closed.