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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Lynton Crosby way of squeezing UKIP could end up reinforcing LD switchers to LAB
The excellent Miranda Green Tweeted the above during BBC1′s Sunday Politics yesterday and my immediate reaction was that she was right and this form of rhetoric would work very effectively at GE2015 squeezing the UKIP vote and moving it to the Tories.
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But just to understand: if the Tories lose it's because Crosby screwed up. If the Tories win, it's because he's good at dogwhistles.
Poor guy just can't win, can he!
(OGH - or possibly rcs - the site crashes my blackberry whenever I try to load it while travelling. Should I just through the thing away and get a piece of kit that works, or is there a fix en route? Error message is that the site is too large to load)
I am counting down the days until our current contract expires so I can get rid of my blackberry. One of my kids gave me a rubber version at Christmas so I could throw it against walls etc, Gordon Brown style.
On topic it does seem to me that Crosby is bringing a focus and consistency to the tory message which was not there before. Cameron too seems more interested in party unity and giving Labour a good kicking than he was in the first half of this Parliament when he almost seemed to prefer the company of lib dems.
Although Lib Dem switchers have become something of an obsession on PB, not least because of the polling, we should not lose sight of the fact that there are probably an increasing number of floating voters who are up for grabs. Voters are not as tribal as they used to be, some even vote differently from their parents. I think electoral support is more volatile and that overly focussing on specific groups may be a bit old fashioned.
So to get the opinions of more than 800 Conservative members - as opposed to supporters - is a rare treat. YouGov identified the members from its previous polling work and it surveyed them between 31 May and 11 June. The survey was carried out by YouGov for Professor Tim Bale of Queen Mary, University of London and Professor Paul Webb from Sussex University and co-funded by the McDougall Trust.
Startling results
Opinion pollsters tend to want a sample of at least 1,000 people to reflect the mood of millions of people around the country. So we can be pretty confident that a survey of more than 800 grassroots Tories will give us an accurate reflection of the views of the estimated 100,000-plus Conservative party members nationally gives the survey added weight.
They show that 19% - almost one in five - of Conservative members are seriously considering voting for UKIP.
More than half - 53% - feel they are not respected by the Tory leadership.
They are growing less active, with 44% saying they spend no time on party activity in an average month.
And they are pessimistic about the future, with only 19% believing the party will win an overall majority at the election.
They were asked to express their views by choosing a number from zero to ten. Zero meant they would never consider voting for UKIP. Ten meant they would definitely vote or consider voting for UKIP.
Only 33% said they would never consider voting UKIP.
The rest were spread pretty evenly across the scale. But 19% of the members ticked eight, nine or ten, showing they were seriously considering voting UKIP.
The party members were asked how much time they spend on party activity in an average month, including campaigning, meetings and social events. Some 44% said none; 30% said just five hours.
Now in some ways this reflects the fact that all parties have large numbers of members who just pay their subs and never do a thing...
In the UK, Chrome wouldn't connect, Firefox was fine. In Ljubljana it has been the reverse with Firefox telling me that there was 'no site configured to that address'. At one point yesterday I was reduced to using IE. This morning every browser is working peachy.
I guess it may be a Windows 8 thingy.
That is a very simple message that has worked extremely well for decades. For the Labour Party.
Rather than trying to scare voters, it would be nice if the Tories could try something novel. Like being a decent, competent government, run by pleasant, reasonable, grounded and likeable people.
Just a suggestion.
To the centre ground (not the LD Lab defectors because they're fairly left wing) they are a competent/decent government run by likeable folks.
To UKIP voters: the government may not be as "traditionalist" as you like, but it's a darn sight better than the alternative.
I don't think those messages are incompatible.
The key for me is the tories converting the almost daily better economic news into votes and support. This is not a given. Clarke did a brilliant job in the years up to 97 and the tories got hammered.
The key is to emphasise success and fragility with Labour being a risk that we simply cannot afford to take. I think this is the number one message for the election and even Labour's somewhat hilarious attempts at hari kari should not be allowed to deflect the tories from it.
On the plus side for the tories Ed and Ed are no Blair and Brown. The latter were some of the more effective and plausible liars in our recent history. One of the reasons for that was the disciplined on message repetition of the same themes. Miliband tries a different theme in each speech in the hope that something sticks and Balls is in the process of abandoning all his previous positions. Not easy by any means but the tories are in the game here.
It is not yet clear how the LibDems plan to campaign, but a left leaning campaign implicitly looking for a LibLab coalition will be a tricky one. How do you plausibly campaign against your own record in govt?
UKIP will have a lot of publicity for the Euros next year, but are a more reasonable target for the Tory campaign to woo.
Miliband has not exactly distinguished himself this week, and is going to struggle to campaign as a leader of a coherent party.
I may not like Crosby much, but he does bring some needed focus to the party.
And of course it would allow those who didn't support Labour to more clearly withhold their dues or potentially pay them elsewhere.
Tomorrow is apparently Big Announcement Day for this - let's see.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-23222068
It will be interesting to see if Labour opposes any specific changes, or continues with the line that the curriculum should be revised by experts in a subject, not politicians.
In passing, is it significant that the Prime Minister is quoted above the Education Secretary? Has Crosby identified this as a vote-winner?
Certainly there is a good deal of politics here. Not least the continuing clash of Gove's two policies: localism -- academies and free schools are not bound by the national curriculum; and centralism -- Michael Gove's desk is the largest LEA in the country.
On your second, do you have any evidence for that?
"Rather than trying to scare voters, it would be nice if the Tories could try something novel. Like being a decent, competent government, run by pleasant, reasonable, grounded and likeable people."
You've hit the nail on the head Stuart. Labour owe Maggie a big vote of thanks for turning her Party from the natural party of government to the one you describe.
You just can't make an elephant fly.....
(Stuart. How's your young MP Ian doing?)
But the Conservatives might still win if Osborne has been a better master strategist than Chancellor. Osborne's front-loaded austerity meant that our economic position is now worse than it would have been if he'd budgeted for growth. We can see that by comparing our position with America's, since our performance was quite similar until Osborne entered Number 11.
Krugman was right. Balls was right. Cable was right.
But by 2015, the economy should be in an upswing. And Miliband has made the mistake of listening to the Blairites, so the paradoxical economic case that we need to invest for growth was not made. 2015 might be too late to make it.
For the first time in ages, since late 2010, it is starting to look like another Tory government is possible, perhaps even likely, after 2015. I am fascinated to see how that is going to play in Scotland. Can Lamont & Co scare the Scots electorate back into the SLab fold for the umpteenth time? Or have they cried wolf once too often?
"You just can't make an elephant fly..... "
You Dumbo, Roger !!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2358045/Boost-Osborne-treasury-IMF-says-UK-economy-better-shape-thought.html
On the second point, likeability is always a perception thing. Personally I suspect that Cameron is an utter sh1t, and my wife really doesn't like Sam, but I think he comes across as likeable/decent. For a politician.
My other worry as a Unionist is the state of Scottish Labour. They should be the bulwark of the no campaign but they seem to be falling apart. I have been amused by your comments reporting Ms Lamont as a missing person over Falkirk but also concerned. Complacancy and incompetence, it is a heady brew in Scottish Labour. They took Scotland for granted for too long.
Scottish Labour would only start then. But UK Labour cannot afford to wait that long.
That is one of the most fun aspects of the entire IndyRef campaign, watching the Scottish and English parts of the Tory, Labour and LD parties squirm as they try to deliver different messages to the Scottish and English electorates. Nigh on impossible in the internet age of course.
Cameron's problem with UKIP sympathisers is that he comes up with a completely unbelievable approach to an EU 're-negotiation', and then is disappointed that hardly anybody believes it.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2013/jun/03/england-win-world-cup-2014-bernstein
But that of course is a very long shot. England are currently priced at 25/1 for a 2014 win. But a man can live in hope.
I have long said that Alex Salmond's strongest card will be if by next September a Tory victory in 2015 looks likely he will try and scare the Scots into voting Yes. Frankly I am glad the Brownites are running their own so called pro-union campaign because the Scottish electorate think so highly of them in 2011 they did what all the experts had promised Tony Blair could not happen, they voted in a majority SNP government.
lolz
The referendum campaign will come down to a combination of the effectiveness of both campaigns, the state of the economy, historical context and the most difficult to analyse - the gut feeling of the punters.
Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it's Superpeter!
Getting 5 out of 6 bets right is just showing off. Fantastic weekend for Mr. Putney, my own race tip came off, as did one of Mr. Putney's I followed and a small sum on Lotus to top score. Splendid race all round.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/germany-post-race-analysis.html
Occam's razor suggest that 81% believe Cameron's message or are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt
How distant does the amazing lions victory seem. Chris Froome in yellow hardly seems to have got a mention. And that's without even mentioning the stunning weather.
Good old Andy Murray :-)
I suspect that a lot of the LibDem switchers are unenthused by Labours UNITE tendency, so a lot depends on how that works out..
Well done for calling out Dan Hodges again. Always wrong. Always always always.
"In a series of major changes, the new mathematics curriculum will place a greater emphasis on the basics at an early age to prepare pupils for more challenging subjects at a later stage.
In the first year of school, pupils will be expected to read and write numbers up to 100, count in multiples of ones, twos, fives and tens and learn a series of simple sums using addition and subtraction off by heart. Children will also be introduced to basic fractions such as ½ and ¼ at the age of five – a subject currently left until pupils are aged seven to 11 – and algebra will be taught at the age of 10.
Further changes include the requirement to learn 12 times tables by nine rather than an expectation that pupils will master tables up to 10x10 by the time they leave primary school at 11...
The document – to be introduced in English state schools from September 2014 – will cover all subjects including English, maths, science, foreign languages, history, geography, physical education, computing, design and technology, art and drama.
It is intended to emphasise the basic knowledge that pupils should know at each stage of their education – scrapping many of the “woolly” cross-curricular themes introduced by the last Labour government.
Ministers insisted it would benchmark lessons against those found in the world’s most advanced education systems, such as Singapore, Hong Kong, Finland and parts of the United States.
Among a series of changes:
• In English, pupils will be expected to spell a list of almost 240 advanced words by the end of primary school, master grammar and punctuation and read more novels, poems and plays in full, including Shakespeare;
• Science lessons will introduce pupils to evolution at primary school for the first time, increase the amount of practical and maths-based work and scrap “vague”, non-scientific topics such as caring for animals and societal context;
• In computing, pupils will be taught how to code and solve practical computer problems at 11 rather than using work processing packages.
But some of the biggest changes are made in maths where the calculation of fractions, volume and the area of shapes will be introduced much earlier.
At five, pupils will memorise and reason with “number bonds” up to 20 – allowing them to recognise and use sums such as 9+7=16 and 16-7=9 – tell the time and recognise and name 2-D and 3-D shapes.
From seven, pupils will recall and use the 2, 3, 4, 5, 8 and 10 times tables, add and subtract amounts of money to give change using pounds and pence and add and subtract simple fractions with the same denominators... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/10165307/Fractions-for-five-year-olds-in-rigorous-new-curriculum.html
You are also assuming that people in general put a lot of thought into the way they vote. Most will just blindly vote a certain way, whilst others will check the political stories as a way of reinforcing their views, for instance many people will read papers that reinforce, not challenge, their views.
Few will go on-line and obsessively check the latest political stories. Most on here are probably amongst that few, and then most of us will vote the way we were inclined to anyway.
A question: what has a bigger effect: people changing their votes (swing voters) or people not turning out for the election? I.e. is it more important to try to gain the swing voters, and potentially alienate the base, or to GOTV? There must be some figures.
Jack, the state of SLAB is the elephant in the room. You know it, I know it, Alistair Darling knows it, everybody knows it.
IMHO in the 2015 GE campaign nationally, apart from their policy pledges, they will attempt to play the honest broker card as a brake on both Con and Lab but this time with the added factor of experience in government.
I hadn't known that the bungling thieves managed to break the Stone of Destiny ;
" The stone had split in two and crashed to the floor at the height of the raid, breaking into two pieces. "
Thanks.
The referendum will be the single most important decision for Scots to make in centuries. The state of SLAB isn't remotely important in that context. Governments come and go .... Salmond too eventually but nations aren't just for Christmas.
Personally I think it unwise for any politician to pretend to be honest, or a straight sorta guy. It just gives hostages to fortune.
If they run a campaign advocating fiscal sanity, and a willingness to have coalition with either party should the numbers fall that way, then they are likely to get my vote.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/10165307/Fractions-for-five-year-olds-in-rigorous-new-curriculum.html
Perfect. :-)
FPT I see that the wine in the Dolomites was free-flowing last night. It would help, SeanT, when laying into someone if you could use direct quotations rather than just making them up to suit your argument (I suppose you did that because the original post that irked you was addressing a separate point, which might have given you a clue that I don't actually believe what you attribute me with believing). That's fairly f*cking cretinous.
Thousands of voters would be handed the chance to choose Labour’s election candidates under a plan being drawn up to stem the influence of the Unite union over the party...His aides have come to the conclusion that Labour’s historical link to Britain’s main unions is not at the root of the party’s troubles and must be safeguarded.
The so-called “block vote”, which gives the unions influence over policies at Labour’s conferences, will also be protected. However, they have concluded that an open campaign by Unite to install its own Labour candidates cannot be tolerated... In a speech tomorrow, Mr Miliband will announce a new cap on the amount of money that can be spent by anyone hoping to become a Labour election candidate, and he will unveil a new code of conduct that prospective candidates have to sign.
He will also outline what his team billed as reforms designed to deal with Labour candidate selections and create a direct link between ordinary workers and the party. That could involve open primaries. It could also involve handing Labour membership to all union members who choose to pay the “political levy”, which funds Labour. Both reforms would help to dilute the power of Len McCluskey, the general secretary of Unite... http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article3810621.ece
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/morgan-poll-july-8-2013-201307080647
ALP 54.5% (up 3%)
L-NP 45.5% (down 3%)
I also have a problem with my blackberry on the main site.
Instead I use the backend site : politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com with javascript unenabled in my blackberry settings. This seems to work fine.
If someone has stolen something from someone else, it does not give me the right to steal it off them.
"The Future of England survey by the IPPR think-tank and Cardiff and Edinburgh universities has found that while people in England have a dual identity — British and English — they are becoming more likely to prioritise the English one...
The study concluded that there was a substantial strain of English opinion that would like the UK to withdraw from the EU and supports giving England greater recognition in Britain’s constitutional arrangements. The report argues that the main political parties have not done enough to address the rise of English nationhood. The numbers who believe UKIP is the party best placed to “stand up for English interests” doubled between 2011 and 2013...
Overall, 43 per cent of the English believe that Britain’s membership of the EU is a bad thing, compared with 28 per cent who say it is a good thing. Half say they would vote to leave the EU in a referendum, compared to 33 per cent who say they would opt to stay in. Of those who consider themselves more “English” than British 58 per cent would vote to leave the EU.
This can only really be positioning rather than actual workable policy, but that also works out well, because the right-wing positions the Tories need to take up to impress UKIP-curious voters tend not to be produce any meaningful, practical policy within the limitations the Tories have set themselves (like staying in the EU and the ECHR).
It's no longer a seepage Mike, its more like a bubbling brook. We hope as time goes by it will become a river.
As Tim nears 1,000 extra posts since June 17 (20 days), it is timely that we should assess the state of the runners in the:
PB DATING STAKES - distance and age unlimited.
1ST is TIM on 5,510.
So why does he post so much - the desperation of a love-sick and lonely person? Ah! his avatar provides the clue. All his love is for DAVE - but it is an unrequited love - so Tim must view his one true love from a distance (on his knees) as under-housemaid at No. 10.
CHASING HARD are:
CarlottaV 2,327
Plato 2,155
TSE 2,063
MickPork 1,973
AveryLP 1,819
TGOHF 1,815
Not short of experience among these fillies and stallions - but lack of progress. Waiting for new blood to join them? - as no news of any dalliances among this frisky six.
NOT MAKING UP ENOUGH GROUND:
MorrisD 1,473
Alanbrooke 1,457
SunilP 1,430
SObserver 1,350
Charles 1,282
Neil 1,232
RichardN 1,095
Andrea P 1,044
These eight are trying hard but can get distracted by F1, railways, Italian politicians and other bloodstock lines. Focus or use distraction methods on those in front (will leave that to your imagination).
UNBROKEN NEW BLOOD
SeanT 988
Mike K 982
DavidL 945
Antifrank 925
JosiasJessop 836
Mr Jones 805
HYUFD 758
Foxinsoxuk 738
Scott_P 736
Making good efforts, but too much travel to foreign meets and dalliances with those dastardly foreigners. More rigorous training required.
THE OLD ROUES
JackW 557
ROGER 435
MIKE S 424
JackW has put on a recent spurt - escaped your nurse or the sap rising in Jacobite blood? Roger and MikeS seem to have sampled too many foreign delights. Recommend gelding all round to improve performance.
Apologies as usual for any omissions or Vanilla feed problems.
I find the Kipper's rise most interesting as a casual observer - but I suspect that as the Tories start to take the fight more seriously than they have - UKIP will decline as they're picked off by a more proactive attitude by the main two.
There are of course a hard core of Kippers who have very strong views on things and won't be deflected. They are probably just as energised as hard core LDs - unfortunately for now, UKIP have no Westminster powerbase and a tiny fraction of one at a local level. I suspect that they will be overtaken by events before they ever get as far as the LDs did - even at their lowest ebb.
A good probability will do: an awful lot closer to EVS than today's 4/1 on CON MAJ.
(By the way, it is September, not October. We are closer than you think.)
JackW 557
ROGER 435
MIKE S 424
JackW has put on a recent spurt - escaped your nurse or the sap rising in Jacobite blood? Roger and MikeS seem to have sampled too many foreign delights. Recommend gelding all round to improve performance."
They'll be not much of a "spurt" if I get "gelded"
OUCH !!
These are the folk who do the lion's share of campaigning - and are de-enfranchised at this crucial point. If they choose the shortlist that may ameliorate things - but I can see why they'd be hostile to this change.
Must have head down at work now. However, a bit stiff this morning as had a gentle 10 mile trot yesterday along the sandy beach and though the incoming tide. A good massage is what is needed.
Is there not the potential for a clever message from the Tories simultaneously convincing both Tory-UKIP switchers and Lib Dem-Labour switchers that they really don't want a Labour government?
The opinion poll data tables do tend to suggest that many people who currently say they will vote Labour are distinctly underwhelmed by their competence for government.
On the positive side the winner of the Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election has recently been knighted - Sir Sodoff Baldrick
I think open primaries have merit, but don't want them funded by the state.
Otherwise, why shouldn't I set up the "Charles Party" and seek funding from the state for primaries to select candidates called "Charles" for constituencies.
Very low administration costs, I promise.
"The funny thing about the new National Curriculum, published today, is that after all the fuss of the past few months, particularly over the history curriculum, it’s probably the last ever national plan from the government. As more and more schools convert to academy status, and more free schools pop up to compete with poorly-performing schools, there will be fewer and fewer who must conform to this: the rest have been given freedom to teach what they judge is best for their pupils. Michael Gove’s critics like to argue that he is a great centraliser, dictating the curriculum from Westminster while claiming to give schools freedom. But he only remains a centraliser where schools remain subject to centralisation and local authority control.
But today’s announcement gives the Conservatives a number of attack lines. The first is the inevitable ‘global race’ line, with the curriculum being sold as an attempt to bring this country’s school system into line with the best-performers in the world.
The second is that Michael Gove can argue that he is the parents’ champion, offering their children a rigorous education in the state system, with fractions being taught to five-year-olds. The contrast is Labour as the teachers’ champion. Stephen Twigg has said all schools would receive curriculum freedoms, which is all very well if all those schools ready for those freedoms. But it also means he doesn’t have to make the difficult decisions over what should be included, and he wouldn’t need to decide whether to change the history curriculum to cheer up the unions if Labour made it into government in 2015.
So it’s another example of weakness at the top of the Labour party: and one which the gleefully pugnacious Gove will almost certainly exploit." http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/07/new-curriculum-offers-political-points-to-tories/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=new-curriculum-offers-political-points-to-tories
They cost about £20k a pop from memory - so are a very expensive route to find a candidate.
Incidentally, I'll be writing racing and betting mid-season reviews as per usual. Following some comments by Mr. Putney I'll post them both on the new blog and pb2, so that those who are unaware of the new blog but followed pb2 can discover its existence.
The tyres used for the rest of the season will debut in Hungary, and Germany cannot be taken as a new benchmark for qualifying/race performance.
It's emotional not logical. If you can't invest personally in your campaign, you haven't got one.
Is Gove a Machiavellian genius to rival master strategist George Osborne, deliberately handicapping LEA schools so his preferred free schools look better?
Or is the truth more mundane? That Gove has no overarching philosophy of education, but merely some incoherent and contradictory prejudices.
Unless you want everything taken in that manner ever to be done likewise. The Louvre would look rather empty.
"If Gove's new curriculum is good, why not impose it everywhere? If it is so bad that Gove encourages schools to become exempt from it, then why impose it anywhere?"
And therein lies the difference between those who are very keen on central control and those who aren't - Gove is framing a policy on what he'd like to see - but understands that there are other views and both are valid since they're simply opinions.
Gove doesn't want to control what teachers do or the syllabus they teach - but if he has to for those who are currently under his purview, this is his idea of *good*.
" converting the almost daily better economic news into votes and support. This is not a given. Clarke did a brilliant job in the years up to 97 and the tories got hammered."
The problem in 1997 surely was that the recovery was in spite, not because, of the Tories' economic policy? The one that entailed 15% interest rates and ERM membership.
That policy was blown out of the water by the City, essentially, in 1992.
The subsequent recovery was possible because the Tories had been forced to abandon their policy, and to follow another not of their choosing. The electorate noticed this and concluded, rightly IMO, that they deserved no credit; and in fact deserved to be punished for having been so demonstrably wrong.
Wonder if the po faced UCI will complain like last year
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAl1-mBhFpU&feature=youtu.be