Verhofstadt's also right. The equilibrium point in all of this is for there to be a durable Brexit deal because it's everyone's interests. That deal will not be generous or quick as it's not in 27 of the 28 participants interests for it to be. As this is politics events or dynamics may mean we don't reach the natural equilibrium point at the first go. It's why we can all bet on it.
Sounds like hard Brexit to me.
If the Australians don't think it worth talking until after Brexit, why should anyone else?
Best get on with it.
It will not be hard BREXIT, May will ensure that. Hard Brexit it is now clear would lead to a trade war with the EU and she is not going to let that happen. Australia have said they will do a trade deal with the UK asap after Brexit as have New Zealand but obviously the terms of Brexit must be agreed first
snip.
The EU gave made quite clear that if there is no free movement at all of EU citizens to the UK there will be restrictions placed on the access of all UK goods to the EU. So if it is a full, hard BREXIT a trade war of some form is almost certain
The EU have not made anything clear. They have stated an opening negotiating position. Nothing more, nothing less.
They have made clear single market access depends on free movement
Once again, HYUFD demonstrating his extraordinary ability to miss the point.
Once he's made up his mind no amount of argument or facts will make him change. Don't you remember the "Corbyn needs MP nominations" farce?
That position was supported by almost half the NEC when voted on, it was politics that decided the outcome
And the High Court judgment was but a scratch, was it?
That judgment upheld the NEC's narrow majority decision and was not appealed unlike the ruling on the date at which members needed to have registered to vote where the High Court decision was overturned by the Court of Appeal, the NEC having appealed
It did NOT "uphold the decision" of the NEC, it independently construed the rules and came to the same conclusion as the NEC had done; as you would see if you took the trouble to read the judgment. You are either incurably deluded, or you are trolling.
We will lose Japanese investment and much of Lloyds of London to the EU too if we get no single market membership and it would hit both our economies in a negative way
Just like we were going to if we didn't join the Euro or remain in the ERM.
Wolf Wolf. No one believes this bullshit anymore.
They will bleat but they know the UK is a good place to be based with support for business and most of europe is semi socialist business hostile bureaucratic crap.
As for the Japanese. Do you really think that Japanese train builders Hitachi would pull out of UK in response to EU initiating a trade war meaning that tariffs went on Siemens and Alstoms German and Italian built trains?
Ditto many others.
EU throwing their toys out of the cot would be as suicidal for the EU as it would have been for Sweden to Invade Germany in 1940.
They are already on the brink with massive unemployment, imploding economies and negative interest rates.
If they wont be sensible then Sod Them. Free of EU rest of world trade tariffs we will just move on.
Verhofstadt's also right. The equilibrium point in all of this is for there to be a durable Brexit deal because it's everyone's interests. That deal will not be generous or quick as it's not in 27 of the 28 participants interests for it to be. As this is politics events or dynamics may mean we don't reach the natural equilibrium point at the first go. It's why we can all bet on it.
Sounds like hard Brexit to me.
If the Australians don't think it worth talking until after Brexit, why should anyone else?
Best get on with it.
It will not be hard BREXIT, May will ensure that. Hard Brexit it is now clear would lead to a trade war with the EU and she....
I don't think "it's clear" at all. I reflexively dislike apocalyptic language on almost any topic bar a full on strategic nuclear exchange. It's going to be diffcult, complex and moderately expensive. But we're a long way from trade wars and the like.
The EU gave made quite clear that if there is no free movement at all of EU citizens to the UK there will be restrictions placed on t....n
The EU have not made anything clear. They have stated an opening negotiating position. Nothing more, nothing less.
They have made clear single market access depends on free movement
Which is their opening negotiating position. Have you ever held negotiations? You never open with your real bottom line.
The most likely outcome is limited single market access for limited free movement but what is clear is the UK will not get full single market access as it will put at least some controls on free movement
I still don't think partial free movement is likely. We may want it, but I doubt the EU would accept.
Then a trade war it is!
That will please German manufacturers and what is left of Italian Industry.
The EU has a lot more to lose if they want to be childish than we do.
We will lose Japanese investment and much of Lloyds of London to the EU too if we get no single market membership and it would hit both our economies in a negative way
What about the Plague of frogs/flies/termites/locusts?
Verhofstadt's also right. The equilibrium point in all of this is for there to be a durable Brexit deal because it's everyone's interests. That deal will not be generous or quick as it's not in 27 of the 28 participants interests for it to be. As this is politics events or dynamics may mean we don't reach the natural equilibrium point at the first go. It's why we can all bet on it.
Sounds like hard Brexit to me.
If the Australians don't think it worth talking until after Brexit, why should anyone else?
Best get on with it.
It will not be hard BREXIT, May will ensure that. Hard Brexit it is now clear would lead to a trade war with the EU and she is not going to let that happen. Australia have said they will do a trade deal with the UK asap after Brexit as have New Zealand but obviously the terms of Brexit must be agreed first
I don't think "it's clear" at all. I reflexively dislike apocalyptic language on almost any topic bar a full on strategic nuclear exchange. It's going to be diffcult, complex and moderately expensive. But we're a long way from trade wars and the like.
The EU gave made quite clear that if there is no free movement at all of EU citizens to the UK there will be restrictions placed on the access of all UK goods to the EU. So if it is a full, hard BREXIT a trade war of some form is almost certain
The EU have not made anything clear. They have stated an opening negotiating position. Nothing more, nothing less.
They have made clear single market access depends on free movement
Once again, HYUFD demonstrating his extraordinary ability to miss the point.
No that is precisely the point. The Italian trade minister made clear on Monday the more the UK restricts freedom of movement of EU nationals to the UK the more the EU will restrict access of UK goods to the EU
Italy has a trade minister?
It has a Ministry of Economic Development which incorporated the old Department of Trade
Verhofstadt's also right. The equilibrium point in all of this is for there to be a durable Brexit deal because it's everyone's interests. That deal will not be generous or quick as it's not in 27 of the 28 participants interests for it to be. As this is politics events or dynamics may mean we don't reach the natural equilibrium point at the first go. It's why we can all bet on it.
Sounds like hard Brexit to me.
If the Australians don't think it worth talking until after Brexit, why should anyone else?
Best get on with it.
It will not be hard BREXIT, May will ensure that. Hard Brexit it is now clobviously the terms of Brexit must be agreed first
snip.
The EU gave made quite clear that if there is no free movement at all of EU citizens to the UK there will be restrictions placed on tain
The EU have not made anything clear. They have stated an opening negotiating position. Nothing more, nothing less.
They have made clear single market access depends on free movement
Once again, HYUFD demonstrating his extraordinary ability to miss the point.
Once he's made up his mind no amount of argument or facts will make him change. Don't you remember the "Corbyn needs MP nominations" farce?
That position was supported by almost half the NEC when voted on, it was politics that decided the outcome
And the High Court judgment was but a scratch, was it?
That judgment upheld the NEC's narrow majority decision and was not appealed unlike the ruling on the date at which members needed to have registered to vote where the High Court decision was overturned by the Court of Appeal, the NEC having appealed
It did NOT "uphold the decision" of the NEC, it independently construed the rules and came to the same conclusion as the NEC had done; as you would see if you took the trouble to read the judgment. You are either incurably deluded, or you are trolling.
It uphold the narrow 18 to 14 decision of the NEC in a case brought by a private individual which was never appealed to the Court of Appeal so we will never know whether the High Court decision would have been upheld there, the decision on member's registration dates was not upheld there
"Teaching unions attacked any expansion of grammar schools. The National Union of Teachers described it as a "regressive move", the Association of Teachers and Lecturers said it would be a "massive distraction" and the NASUWT said government policies had already increased "covert selection, often targeted at pupils from materially deprived backgrounds". The Association of School and College Leaders, which represents secondary heads, said increased selection was "education policy by nostalgia" that would not help social mobility.
This is straight out of Yes, Minister - can't remember the episode but there's a brilliant (and evidently still very relevant) bit where Sir H. explains why grammar schools had to go... yup, the teaching unions.
We will lose Japanese investment and much of Lloyds of London to the EU too if we get no single market membership and it would hit both our economies in a negative way
Just like we were going to if we didn't join the Euro or remain in the ERM.
Wolf Wolf. No one believes this bullshit anymore.
They will bleat but they know the UK is a good place to be based with support for business and most of europe is semi socialist business hostile bureaucratic crap.
As for the Japanese. Do you really think that Japanese train builders Hitachi would pull out of UK in response to EU initiating a trade war meaning that tariffs went on Siemens and Alstoms German and Italian built trains?
Ditto many others.
EU throwing their toys out of the cot would be as suicidal for the EU as it would have been for Sweden to Invade Germany in 1940.
They are already on the brink with massive unemployment, imploding economies and negative interest rates.
If they wont be sensible then Sod Them. Free of EU rest of world trade tariffs we will just move on.
The Euro or the ERM were different, neither concerned access to a free trade area. The Japanese made clwar at the G20 they would move company bases from the UK to the EU if no single market membership was obtained. It will not be great for the EU nor the UK
Verhofstadt's also right. The equilibrium point in all of this is for there to be a durable Brexit deal because it's everyone's interests. That deal will not be generous or quick as it's not in 27 of the 28 participants interests for it to be. As this is politics events or dynamics may mean we don't reach the natural equilibrium point at the first go. It's why we can all bet on it.
Sounds like hard Brexit to me.
If the Australians don't think it worth talking until after Brexit, why should anyone else?
Best get on with it.
It will not be hard BREXIT, May will ensure that. Hard Brexit it is now clear would lead to a trade war with the EU and she is not going to let that happen. Australia have said they will do a trade deal with the UK asap after Brexit as have New Zealand but obviously the terms of Brexit must be agreed first
I don't think "it's clear" at all. I reflexively dislike apocalyptic language on almost any topic bar a full on strategic nuclear exchange. It's going to be diffcult, complex and moderately expensive. But we're a long way from trade wars and the like.
The EU gave made quite clear that if there is no free movement at all of EU citizens to the UK there will be restrictions placed on the access of all UK goods to the EU. So if it is a full, hard BREXIT a trade war of some form is almost certain
The EU have not made anything clear. They have stated an opening negotiating position. Nothing more, nothing less.
They have made clear single market access depends on free movement
Once again, HYUFD demonstrating his extraordinary ability to miss the point.
No that is precisely the point. The Italian trade minister made clear on Monday the more the UK restricts freedom of movement of EU nationals to the UK the more the EU will restrict access of UK goods to the EU
Italy has a trade minister?
It has a Ministry of Economic Development which incorporated the old Department of Trade
So no one who has any influence over the UK exit terms then.
Verhofstadt's also right. . As this is politics events or dynamics may mean we don't reach the natural equilibrium point at the first go. It's why we can all bet on it.
Sounds like hard Brexit to me.
If the Australians don't think it worth talking until after Brexit, why should anyone else?
Best get on with it.
It will not be hard BREXIT, May will ensure that. Hard Brexit it is now clear would lead to a trade war with the EU and she....
I don't think "it's clear" at all. I reflexively dislike apocalyptic language on almost any topic bar a full on strategic nuclear exchange. It's going to be diffcult, complex and moderately expensive. But we're a long way from trade wars and the like.
The EU gave made quite clear that if there is no free movement at all of EU citizens to the UK there will be restrictions placed on t....n
The EU have not made anything clear. They have stated an opening negotiating position. Nothing more, nothing less.
They have made clear single market access depends on free movement
Which is their opening negotiating position. Have you ever held negotiations? You never open with your real bottom line.
The most likely outcome is limited single market access for limited free movement but what is clear is the UK will not get full single market access as it will put at least some controls on free movement
I still don't think partial free movement is likely. We may want it, but I doubt the EU would accept.
Then a trade war it is!
That will please German manufacturers and what is left of Italian Industry.
The EU has a lot more to lose if they want to be childish than we do.
We will lose Japanese investment and much of Lloyds of London to the EU too if we get no single market membership and it would hit both our economies in a negative way
What about the Plague of frogs/flies/termites/locusts?
And the 50% youth unemployment, confiscation of savings when banks collapse and inexorable conomic decline. Just think if we stayed in the EU and joined the Euro we would be spared all that.....oh.
We will lose Japanese investment and much of Lloyds of London to the EU too if we get no single market membership and it would hit both our economies in a negative way
Just like we were going to if we didn't join the Euro or remain in the ERM.
Wolf Wolf. No one believes this bullshit anymore.
They will bleat but they know the UK is a good place to be based with support for business and most of europe is semi socialist business hostile bureaucratic crap.
As for the Japanese. Do you really think that Japanese train builders Hitachi would pull out of UK in response to EU initiating a trade war meaning that tariffs went on Siemens and Alstoms German and Italian built trains?
Ditto many others.
EU throwing their toys out of the cot would be as suicidal for the EU as it would have been for Sweden to Invade Germany in 1940.
They are already on the brink with massive unemployment, imploding economies and negative interest rates.
If they wont be sensible then Sod Them. Free of EU rest of world trade tariffs we will just move on.
The Euro or the ERM were different, neither concerned access to a free trade area. The Japanese made clwar at the G20 they would move company bases from the UK to the EU if no single market membership was obtained. It will not be great for the EU nor the UK
They all came out with much the same crap when a decision was to be made about joining the Euro.
They bleated that the currency fluctuations mesnt they would have no choice other than move company bases from the UK to the EU if we didnt join
The flexibilty of doing business here, things like not having to give people fifteen weeks leave, a thirty five hour week, pay about 30% in eu equivalent of employers national insurance and not have to pay about 10 years salary if you make them redundant all make far more difference.
Verhofstadt's also right. The equilibrium point in all of this is for there to be a durable Brexit deal because it's everyone's interests. That deal will not be generous or quick as it's not in 27 of the 28 participants interests for it to be. As this is politics events or dynamics may mean we don't reach the natural equilibrium point at the first go. It's why we can all bet on it.
Sounds like hard Brexit to me.
If the Australians don't think it worth talking until after Brexit, why should anyone else?
Best get on with it.
It will not be hard BREXIT, May will ensure that. Hard Brexit it is now clobviously the terms of Brexit must be agreed first
snip.
The EU gave made quite clear that if there is no free movement at all of EU citizens to the UK there will be restrictions placed on tain
The EU have not made anything clear. They have stated an opening negotiating position. Nothing more, nothing less.
They have made clear single market access depends on free movement
Once again, HYUFD demonstrating his extraordinary ability to miss the point.
Once he's made up his mind no amount of argument or facts will make him change. Don't you remember the "Corbyn needs MP nominations" farce?
That position was supported by almost half the NEC when voted on, it was politics that decided the outcome
And the High Court judgment was but a scratch, was it?
That judgment upheld the NEC's narrow majority decision and was not appealed unlike the ruling on the date at which members needed to have registered to vote where the High Court decision was overturned by the Court of Appeal, the NEC having appealed
It did NOT "uphold the decision" of the NEC, it independently construed the rules and came to the same conclusion as the NEC had done; as you would see if you took the trouble to read the judgment. You are either incurably deluded, or you are trolling.
It uphold the narrow 18 to 14 decision of the NEC in a case brought by a private individual which was never appealed to the Court of Appeal so we will never know whether the High Court decision would have been upheld there, the decision on member's registration dates was not upheld there
Verhofstadt's also right. The equilibrium point in all of this is for there to be a durable Brexit deal because it's everyone's interests. That deal will not be generous or quick as it's not in 27 of the 28 participants interests for it to be. As this is politics events or dynamics may mean we don't reach the natural equilibrium point at the first go. It's why we can all bet on it.
Sounds like hard Brexit to me.
If the Australians don't think it worth talking until after Brexit, why should anyone else?
Best get on with it.
It will not be hard BREXIT, May will ensure that. Hard Brexit it is now clear would lead to a trade war with the EU and she is not going to let that happen. Australia have said they will do a trade deal with the UK asap after Brexit as have New Zealand but obviously the terms of Brexit must be agreed first
I don't think "it's clear" at all. I reflexively dislike apocalyptic language on almost any topic bar a full on strategic nuclear exchange. It's going to be diffcult, complex and moderately expensive. But we're a long way from trade wars and the like.
The EU gave made quite clear that if there is no free movement at all of EU citizens to the UK there will be restrictions placed on the access of all UK goods to the EU. So if it is a full, hard BREXIT a trade war of some form is almost certain
The EU have not made anything clear. They have stated an opening negotiating position. Nothing more, nothing less.
They have made clear single market access depends on free movement
Once again, HYUFD demonstrating his extraordinary ability to miss the point.
No that is precisely the point. The Italian trade minister made clear on Monday the more the UK restricts freedom of movement of EU nationals to the UK the more the EU will restrict access of UK goods to the EU
Italy has a trade minister?
It has a Ministry of Economic Development which incorporated the old Department of Trade
So no one who has any influence over the UK exit terms then.
Let it go man.
Nope, he was expressing the opinion of the Renzi government which has been co-ordinated with the French and German governments in their post Brexit summits, that will be the position of the EU in the negotiations
We will lose Japanese investment and much of Lloyds of London to the EU too if we get no single market membership and it would hit both our economies in a negative way
Just like we were going to if we didn't join the Euro or remain in the ERM.
Wolf Wolf. No one believes this bullshit anymore.
They will bleat but they know the UK is a good place to be based with support for business and most of europe is semi socialist business hostile bureaucratic crap.
As for the Japanese. Do you really think that Japanese train builders Hitachi would pull out of UK in response to EU initiating a trade war meaning that tariffs went on Siemens and Alstoms German and Italian built trains?
Ditto many others.
EU throwing their toys out of the cot would be as suicidal for the EU as it would have been for Sweden to Invade Germany in 1940.
They are already on the brink with massive unemployment, imploding economies and negative interest rates.
If they wont be sensible then Sod Them. Free of EU rest of world trade tariffs we will just move on.
The Euro or the ERM were different, neither concerned access to a free trade area. The Japanese made clwar at the G20 they would move company bases from the UK to the EU if no single market membership was obtained. It will not be great for the EU nor the UK
They all came out with much the same crap when a decision was to be made about joining the Euro.
They bleated that the currency fluctuations mesnt they would have no choice other than move company bases from the UK to the EU if we didnt join
The flexibilty of doing business here, things like not having to give people fifteen weeks leave, a thirty five hour week, pay about 30% in eu equivalent of employers national insurance and not have to pay about 10 years salary if you make them redundant all make far more difference.
Empty threats
Wolf Wolf.
Heard it all before.
Being members of the single currency is not the same as being outside the single market completely, almost half the EU is outside the eurozone, only Switzerland is outside the single market and it has agreed bilateral free trade agreements on the basis of free movement (though given its recent referendum which supported controls on free movement that position may change)
Nope, he was expressing the opinion of the Renzi government which has been co-ordinated with the French and German governments in their post Brexit summits, that will be the position of the EU in the negotiations
Two out of those three governments will likely have been replaced before we even trigger article 50.
It uphold the narrow 18 to 14 decision of the NEC in a case brought by a private individual which was never appealed to the Court of Appeal so we will never know whether the High Court decision would have been upheld there, the decision on member's registration dates was not upheld there
I've just remembered, you and I had a bet on this. You owe me £100
We will lose Japanese investment and much of Lloyds of London to the EU too if we get no single market membership and it would hit both our economies in a negative way
We will lose Japanese investment and much of Lloyds of London to the EU too if we get no single market membership and it would hit both our economies in a negative way
Just like we were going to if we didn't join the Euro or remain in the ERM.
Wolf Wolf. No one believes this bullshit anymore.
They will bleat but they know the UK is a good place to be based with support for business and most of europe is semi socialist business hostile bureaucratic crap.
As for the Japanese. Do you really think that Japanese train builders Hitachi would pull out of UK in response to EU initiating a trade war meaning that tariffs went on Siemens and Alstoms German and Italian built trains?
Ditto many others.
EU throwing their toys out of the cot would be as suicidal for the EU as it would have been for Sweden to Invade Germany in 1940.
They are already on the brink with massive unemployment, imploding economies and negative interest rates.
If they wont be sensible then Sod Them. Free of EU rest of world trade tariffs we will just move on.
The Euro or the ERM were different, neither concerned access to a free trade area. The Japanese made clwar at the G20 they would move company bases from the UK to the EU if no single market membership was obtained. It will not be great for the EU nor the UK
They all came out with much the same crap when a decision was to be made about joining the Euro.
They bleated that the currency fluctuations mesnt they would have no choice other than move company bases from the UK to the EU if we didnt join
The flexibilty of doing business here, things like not having to give people fifteen weeks leave, a thirty five hour week, pay about 30% in eu equivalent of employers national insurance and not have to pay about 10 years salary if you make them redundant all make far more difference.
Empty threats
Wolf Wolf.
Heard it all before.
Being members of the single currency is not the same as being outside the single market completely, almost half the EU is outside the eurozone, only Switzerland is outside the single market and it has agreed bilateral free trade agreements on the basis of free movement (though given its recent referendum which supported controls on free movement that position may change)
I dont think you are even listening to others posts?
"Teaching unions attacked any expansion of grammar schools. The National Union of Teachers described it as a "regressive move", the Association of Teachers and Lecturers said it would be a "massive distraction" and the NASUWT said government policies had already increased "covert selection, often targeted at pupils from materially deprived backgrounds". The Association of School and College Leaders, which represents secondary heads, said increased selection was "education policy by nostalgia" that would not help social mobility.
This is straight out of Yes, Minister - can't remember the episode but there's a brilliant (and evidently still very relevant) bit where Sir H. explains why grammar schools had to go... yup, the teaching unions.
Nope, he was expressing the opinion of the Renzi government which has been co-ordinated with the French and German governments in their post Brexit summits, that will be the position of the EU in the negotiations
Two out of those three governments will likely have been replaced before we even trigger article 50.
Unless Marine Le Pen wins the French Presidency and Beppe Grillo becomes PM of Italy I cannot see the position of the EU changing significantly
We will lose Japanese investment and much of Lloyds of London to the EU too if we get no single market membership and it would hit both our economies in a negative way
Lol.
I have an exclusive preview of how they will leave the UK - its not pretty:
" Florida - Clinton and Trump tied 47 - 47 percent; North Carolina - Clinton at 47 percent, with Trump at 43 percent; Ohio - Trump at 46 percent to Clinton's 45 percent; Pennsylvania - Clinton tops Trump 48 - 43 percent.
With third party candidates in the race, results are: Florida - Clinton and Trump tied 43 - 43 percent, Libertarian Gary Johnson at 8 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2 percent;
North Carolina - Clinton edges Trump 42 - 38 percent, with 15 percent for Johnson. Stein is not on the ballot here;
Ohio - Trump edges Clinton 41 - 37 percent, with Johnson at 14 percent and Stein at 4 percent;
Pennsylvania - Clinton tops Trump 44 - 39 percent with 9 percent for Johnson and 3 percent for Stein. "
The bad news for Trump is that it cancells the Suffolk poll earlier in the day that showed him leading by 3 in N.Carolina.
Basically Florida, N.Carolina and Ohio look like ties right now, and Trump is hitting the blue wall of 272 E.V. for Hillary, there are no other states available for Trump until he takes the lead nationally.
For Trump to win he needs to lead the national polls by 2 points on average for Wisconsin and Michigan to flip to his side, for him to win Pennsylvania he needs to lead by 3 nationally.
" Florida - Clinton and Trump tied 47 - 47 percent; North Carolina - Clinton at 47 percent, with Trump at 43 percent; Ohio - Trump at 46 percent to Clinton's 45 percent; Pennsylvania - Clinton tops Trump 48 - 43 percent.
With third party candidates in the race, results are: Florida - Clinton and Trump tied 43 - 43 percent, Libertarian Gary Johnson at 8 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2 percent;
North Carolina - Clinton edges Trump 42 - 38 percent, with 15 percent for Johnson. Stein is not on the ballot here;
Ohio - Trump edges Clinton 41 - 37 percent, with Johnson at 14 percent and Stein at 4 percent;
Pennsylvania - Clinton tops Trump 44 - 39 percent with 9 percent for Johnson and 3 percent for Stein. "
The bad news for Trump is that it cancells the Suffolk poll earlier in the day that showed him leading by 3 in N.Carolina.
Basically Florida, N.Carolina and Ohio look like ties right now, and Trump is hitting the blue wall of 272 E.V. for Hillary, there are no other states available for Trump until he takes the lead nationally.
For Trump to win he needs to lead the national polls by 2 points on average for Wisconsin and Michigan to flip to his side, for him to win Pennsylvania he needs to lead by 3 nationally.
I was having "fun" with 270 to win yesterday.. found it very hard to imagine a way Trump could win. Even if he did win Florida and Ohio.
Nope, he was expressing the opinion of the Renzi government which has been co-ordinated with the French and German governments in their post Brexit summits, that will be the position of the EU in the negotiations
Two out of those three governments will likely have been replaced before we even trigger article 50.
Unless Marine Le Pen wins the French Presidency and Beppe Grillo becomes PM of Italy I cannot see the position of the EU changing significantly
Which will happen sooner or later unless the EU changes course rapidly. Sadly the EU is turning into a polite version of the Soviet Union, convinced that solidarity and heroic political efforts can defeat economic reality.
We will lose Japanese investment and much of Lloyds of London to the EU too if we get no single market membership and it would hit both our economies in a negative way
Lol.
The chairman of Lloyds of London said it may well move some operations to the EU if the UK is outside the single market
We will lose Japanese investment and much of Lloyds of London to the EU too if we get no single market membership and it would hit both our economies in a negative way
Just like we were going to if we didn't join the Euro or remain in the ERM.
Wolf Wolf. No one believes this bullshit anymore.
They will bleat but they know the UK is a good place to be based with support for business and most of europe is semi socialist business hostile bureaucratic crap.
As for the Japanese. Do you really think that Japanese train builders Hitachi would pull out of UK in response to EU initiating a trade war meaning that tariffs went on Siemens and Alstoms German and Italian built trains?
Ditto many others.
EU throwing their toys out of the cot would be as suicidal for the EU as it would have been for Sweden to Invade Germany in 1940.
They are already on the brink with massive unemployment, imploding economies and negative interest rates.
If they wont be sensible then Sod Them. Free of EU rest of world trade tariffs we will just move on.
The Euro or the ERM were different, neither concerned access to a free trade area. The Japanese made clwar at the G20 they would move company bases from the UK to the EU if no single market membership was obtained. It will not be great for the EU nor the UK
They all came out with much the same crap when a decision was to be made about joining the Euro.
They bleated that the currency fluctuations mesnt they would have no choice other than move company bases from the UK to the EU if we didnt join
The flexibilty of doing business here, things like not having to give people fifteen weeks leave, a thirty five hour week, pay about 30% in eu equivalent of employers national insurance and not have to pay about 10 years salary if you make them redundant all make far more difference.
Empty threats
Wolf Wolf.
Heard it all before.
Being members of the single currency is not the same as being outside the single market completely, almost half the EU is outside the eurozone, only Switzerland is outside the single market and it has agreed bilateral free trade agreements on the basis of free movement (though given its recent referendum which supported controls on free movement that position may change)
Once we leave the EU, surely immigration becomes reciprocal. Any controls we impose on EU citizens will be matched by controls on UK citizens. I've no reason to believe EU States will want to maximise emigration of their own people to the UK after we leave.
Please define, "Single Market Access", you keep using this term in your posts on here but I do not know what you mean by it. Does Korea have, "Single Market Access"? How about the USA, Australia, New Zealand, China, Japan and so on?
The only reason I ask is all those countries seem to be able to sell into the single market and sell very successfully but none of them have to accept free movement of people from the EU countries.
In principle it means a company from the UK (before Brexit), Germany or Norway can carry out business in France, say, on an equal basis to a company in France itself. Just as as Scottish company can trade without barriers in England. The French government is not allowed to place any discriminatory regulations or charges in the way. Just as the UK is a single market, so is the EU. The reality isn't as perfect as that but it is a lot closer than it is for a company from the US, Australia or the UK after Brexit, who are all exporting from outside the market.
Those countries outside selling into the EU don't have access to the market?
This is what I trying to get at membership and access seem to be being used as synonyms. I am not sure that is correct or even helpful in terms of the debate.
Nope, he was expressing the opinion of the Renzi government which has been co-ordinated with the French and German governments in their post Brexit summits, that will be the position of the EU in the negotiations
Two out of those three governments will likely have been replaced before we even trigger article 50.
Unless Marine Le Pen wins the French Presidency and Beppe Grillo becomes PM of Italy I cannot see the position of the EU changing significantly
Which will happen sooner or later unless the EU changes course rapidly. Sadly the EU is turning into a polite version of the Soviet Union, convinced that solidarity and heroic political efforts can defeat economic reality.
We will lose Japanese investment and much of Lloyds of London to the EU too if we get no single market membership and it would hit both our economies in a negative way
Lol.
The chairman of Lloyds of London said it may well move some operations to the EU if the UK is outside the single market
Verhofstadt's also right. The equilibrium point in all of this is for there to be a durable Brexit deal because it's everyone's interests. That deal will not be generous or quick as it's not in 27 of the 28 participants interests for it to be. As this is politics events or dynamics may mean we don't reach the natural equilibrium point at the first go. It's why we can all bet on it.
Sounds like hard Brexit to me.
If the Australians don't think it worth talking until after Brexit, why should anyone else?
Best get on with it.
It will not be hard BREXIT, May will ensure that. Hard Brexit it is now clear would lead to a trade war with the EU and she is not going to let that happen. Australia have said they will do a trade deal with the UK asap after Brexit as have New Zealand but obviously the terms of Brexit must be agreed first
I don't think "it's clear" at all. I reflexively dislike apocalyptic language on almost any topic bar a full on strategic nuclear exchange. It's going to be diffcult, complex and moderately expensive. But we're a long way from trade wars and the like.
The EU gave made quite clear that if there is no free movement at all of EU citizens to the UK there will be restrictions placed on the access of all UK goods to the EU. So if it is a full, hard BREXIT a trade war of some form is almost certain
The EU have not made anything clear. They have stated an opening negotiating position. Nothing more, nothing less.
They have made clear single market access depends on free movement
Which is their opening negotiating position. Have you ever held negotiations? You never open with your real bottom line.
The most likely outcome is limited single market access for limited free movement but what is clear is the UK will not get full single market access as it will put at least some controls on free movement
I still don't think partial free movement is likely. We may want it, but I doubt the EU would accept.
Then a trade war it is!
Or as Metaxas said to the Italians in 1940 "Alors, c'est la guerre!". (Usually rendered as "Oxi!" - "No!")
I was having "fun" with 270 to win yesterday.. found it very hard to imagine a way Trump could win. Even if he did win Florida and Ohio.
I agree, thanks to Pennsylvania and N.Hampshire shifting to the left of the national average, Hillary could lose the popular vote and still win the election.
Trump would have to lead by 2 points to win the election, and he will still not win Pennsylvania and N.H. but rather Wisconsin and Michigan.
Wisconsin and Michigan are now the crucial states not Pennsylvania and N.H.
Please define, "Single Market Access", you keep using this term in your posts on here but I do not know what you mean by it. Does Korea have, "Single Market Access"? How about the USA, Australia, New Zealand, China, Japan and so on?
The only reason I ask is all those countries seem to be able to sell into the single market and sell very successfully but none of them have to accept free movement of people from the EU countries.
In principle it means a company from the UK (before Brexit), Germany or Norway can carry out business in France, say, on an equal basis to a company in France itself. Just as as Scottish company can trade without barriers in England. The French government is not allowed to place any discriminatory regulations or charges in the way. Just as the UK is a single market, so is the EU. The reality isn't as perfect as that but it is a lot closer than it is for a company from the US, Australia or the UK after Brexit, who are all exporting from outside the market.
Those countries outside selling into the EU don't have access to the market?
This is what I trying to get at membership and access seem to be being used as synonyms. I am not sure that is correct or even helpful in terms of the debate.
In practice of course, it's a pipe dream. My solicitor's qualification won't allow me to practise law in France or Italy, and how could it? For that matter, we've got about seven or eight different legal systems in the UK. There could be a true single Market between sovereign states.
It uphold the narrow 18 to 14 decision of the NEC in a case brought by a private individual which was never appealed to the Court of Appeal so we will never know whether the High Court decision would have been upheld there, the decision on member's registration dates was not upheld there
I've just remembered, you and I had a bet on this. You owe me £100
We will lose Japanese investment and much of Lloyds of London to the EU too if we get no single market membership and it would hit both our economies in a negative way
Lol.
The chairman of Lloyds of London said it may well move some operations to the EU if the UK is outside the single market
"some" is a far cry from "much"
Who knows how much it would be but he certainly said business would move
Please define, "Single Market Access", you keep using this term in your posts on here but I do not know what you mean by it. Does Korea have, "Single Market Access"? How about the USA, Australia, New Zealand, China, Japan and so on?
The only reason I ask is all those countries seem to be able to sell into the single market and sell very successfully but none of them have to accept free movement of people from the EU countries.
In principle it means a company from the UK (before Brexit), Germany or Norway can carry out business in France, say, on an equal basis to a company in France itself. Just as as Scottish company can trade without barriers in England. The French government is not allowed to place any discriminatory regulations or charges in the way. Just as the UK is a single market, so is the EU. The reality isn't as perfect as that but it is a lot closer than it is for a company from the US, Australia or the UK after Brexit, who are all exporting from outside the market.
Those countries outside selling into the EU don't have access to the market?
This is what I trying to get at membership and access seem to be being used as synonyms. I am not sure that is correct or even helpful in terms of the debate.
In practice of course, it's a pipe dream. My solicitor's qualification won't allow me to practise law in France or Italy, and how could it? For that matter, we've got about seven or eight different legal systems in the UK. There could be a true single Market between sovereign states.
"Teaching unions attacked any expansion of grammar schools. The National Union of Teachers described it as a "regressive move", the Association of Teachers and Lecturers said it would be a "massive distraction" and the NASUWT said government policies had already increased "covert selection, often targeted at pupils from materially deprived backgrounds". The Association of School and College Leaders, which represents secondary heads, said increased selection was "education policy by nostalgia" that would not help social mobility.
This is straight out of Yes, Minister - can't remember the episode but there's a brilliant (and evidently still very relevant) bit where Sir H. explains why grammar schools had to go... yup, the teaching unions.
Parents want them. Unions of course don't.
Expect that's not true, parents don't want them.
Parents want grammar schools up until little Jeremy or Jemima fails their 11+.
We will lose Japanese investment and much of Lloyds of London to the EU too if we get no single market membership and it would hit both our economies in a negative way
Lol.
The chairman of Lloyds of London said it may well move some operations to the EU if the UK is outside the single market
Words cannot describe the fear it instills in me to contemplate the prospect of "some operations" of Lloyds moving to the EU. You might want to google the international market shares of the UK insurance biz to get some actual perspective on this.
We will lose Japanese investment and much of Lloyds of London to the EU too if we get no single market membership and it would hit both our economies in a negative way
Lol.
The chairman of Lloyds of London said it may well move some operations to the EU if the UK is outside the single market
"some" is a far cry from "much"
Who knows how much it would be but he certainly said business would move
For those who really want to read a primer on the Single Market and how it is shaped by the various treaties and directives, as opposed to simply flailing about attempting to score Internet points, may I recommend:
We will lose Japanese investment and much of Lloyds of London to the EU too if we get no single market membership and it would hit both our economies in a negative way
Lol.
The chairman of Lloyds of London said it may well move some operations to the EU if the UK is outside the single market
Words cannot describe the fear it instills in me to contemplate the prospect of "some operations" of Lloyds moving to the EU. You might want to google the international market shares of the UK insurance biz to get some actual perspective on this.
Of course the City is not going to collapse because of it but combined with the news on Japanese investment it is not great
We will lose Japanese investment and much of Lloyds of London to the EU too if we get no single market membership and it would hit both our economies in a negative way
Lol.
The chairman of Lloyds of London said it may well move some operations to the EU if the UK is outside the single market
"some" is a far cry from "much"
Who knows how much it would be but he certainly said business would move
Did he actually say much though?
He said operations would move until we were actually to leave the single market who knows what the extent of the move would be
We will lose Japanese investment and much of Lloyds of London to the EU too if we get no single market membership and it would hit both our economies in a negative way
Lol.
The chairman of Lloyds of London said it may well move some operations to the EU if the UK is outside the single market
"some" is a far cry from "much"
Who knows how much it would be but he certainly said business would move
Did he actually say much though?
He said operations would move until we were actually to leave the single market who knows what the extent of the move would be
So why suggest it was "much" in your earlier post.
We will lose Japanese investment and much of Lloyds of London to the EU too if we get no single market membership and it would hit both our economies in a negative way
Lol.
The chairman of Lloyds of London said it may well move some operations to the EU if the UK is outside the single market
"some" is a far cry from "much"
Who knows how much it would be but he certainly said business would move
Did he actually say much though?
He said operations would move until we were actually to leave the single market who knows what the extent of the move would be
So why suggest it was "much" in your earlier post.
The full statement by the chairman of Lloyds of London was that if there was no single market access it would 'write business onshore in the EU' so that would leave the way open to a potentially significant proportion of its business moving to the EU
Comments
Wolf Wolf. No one believes this bullshit anymore.
They will bleat but they know the UK is a good place to be based with support for business and most of europe is semi socialist business hostile bureaucratic crap.
As for the Japanese. Do you really think that Japanese train builders Hitachi would pull out of UK in response to EU initiating a trade war meaning that tariffs went on Siemens and Alstoms German and Italian built trains?
Ditto many others.
EU throwing their toys out of the cot would be as suicidal for the EU as it would have been for Sweden to Invade Germany in 1940.
They are already on the brink with massive unemployment, imploding economies and negative interest rates.
If they wont be sensible then Sod Them. Free of EU rest of world trade tariffs we will just move on.
"Teaching unions attacked any expansion of grammar schools.
The National Union of Teachers described it as a "regressive move", the Association of Teachers and Lecturers said it would be a "massive distraction" and the NASUWT said government policies had already increased "covert selection, often targeted at pupils from materially deprived backgrounds".
The Association of School and College Leaders, which represents secondary heads, said increased selection was "education policy by nostalgia" that would not help social mobility.
This is straight out of Yes, Minister - can't remember the episode but there's a brilliant (and evidently still very relevant) bit where Sir H. explains why grammar schools had to go... yup, the teaching unions.
Parents want them. Unions of course don't.
Let it go man.
They bleated that the currency fluctuations mesnt they would have no choice other than move company bases from the UK to the EU if we didnt join
The flexibilty of doing business here, things like not having to give people fifteen weeks leave, a thirty five hour week, pay about 30% in eu equivalent of employers national insurance and not have to pay about 10 years salary if you make them redundant all make far more difference.
Empty threats
Wolf Wolf.
Heard it all before.
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/850982/#Comment_850982
http://youtu.be/fb3uCCjH9G0
https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2376
" Florida - Clinton and Trump tied 47 - 47 percent;
North Carolina - Clinton at 47 percent, with Trump at 43 percent;
Ohio - Trump at 46 percent to Clinton's 45 percent;
Pennsylvania - Clinton tops Trump 48 - 43 percent.
With third party candidates in the race, results are:
Florida - Clinton and Trump tied 43 - 43 percent, Libertarian Gary Johnson at 8 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2 percent;
North Carolina - Clinton edges Trump 42 - 38 percent, with 15 percent for Johnson. Stein is not on the ballot here;
Ohio - Trump edges Clinton 41 - 37 percent, with Johnson at 14 percent and Stein at 4 percent;
Pennsylvania - Clinton tops Trump 44 - 39 percent with 9 percent for Johnson and 3 percent for Stein. "
The bad news for Trump is that it cancells the Suffolk poll earlier in the day that showed him leading by 3 in N.Carolina.
Basically Florida, N.Carolina and Ohio look like ties right now, and Trump is hitting the blue wall of 272 E.V. for Hillary, there are no other states available for Trump until he takes the lead nationally.
For Trump to win he needs to lead the national polls by 2 points on average for Wisconsin and Michigan to flip to his side, for him to win Pennsylvania he needs to lead by 3 nationally.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/8lP1G
This is what I trying to get at membership and access seem to be being used as synonyms. I am not sure that is correct or even helpful in terms of the debate.
Re Lloyds I'll bite. Explain reinsurance to me. And not just in a regurgitating sound bites sort of way.
Trump would have to lead by 2 points to win the election, and he will still not win Pennsylvania and N.H. but rather Wisconsin and Michigan.
Wisconsin and Michigan are now the crucial states not Pennsylvania and N.H.
"Lab behind in 85 out of 89 polls"
"If GE now, Lab would lose 40 to 50 seats"
"Lab now at its lowest in the polls since 1982"
Creating an impression of division and chaos - on prime-time BBC1.
https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/773976700162023424
Car transporter crash on BBC1.
NEW THREAD
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/227069/2901084_SingleMarket_acc.pdf#page=15
and for an even higher level summary:
https://fullfact.org/europe/what-single-market/