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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A couple of general election betting markets
Ladbrokes have a market up on if the Tory or Labour share of the vote will rise or fall at the next general election. On the Tory front it is no bet for me simply because whilst the Tory party is doing well at the moment the Brexit negotiations do have the potential to tear asunder the Tory Party like the Corn Laws did a couple of hundred years ago, which could potentially boost UKIP.
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http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/543830/Theresa-May-Jeremy-Corbyn-Prime-Minister-Questions-Commons-parliament-UK-politics-Labour
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/09/want-to-know-whats-happened-to-labour-study-parasites/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20160910_Weekly_Highlights_36_everyone
JCWNBPM
We're definitely watching the B-team after a sparkling period.
I've been aware of that bet for some time and have refrained from backing it only because I draw the line as a matter of principle in betting so directly against the party that I support.
The next Labour leadership contest will be a few months after that.
Mr. M, didn't watch, but if she's trying and failing on jokes she should try being a good Theresa May rather than a second rate David Cameron.
Andrew Teale has his usual comprehensive write up at http://election-data.co.uk/by-election-previews-8-9-16
I don't know why people pay more, to be honest, that price is at the peak of the quality/price laffer curve.
Damilano Barolo DOCG
But it's too early for me to invest yet. I'll do so after HMG negotiating position is clear and A50 is invoked.
Also, could one of the builders or plasterers on here pls, succinctly, explain how you get to spend £4bn on a building.
Wine-tasting: it's junk science
For the first time in the history of the public performance measure, long distance trains are now more punctual than those operating in London and the South East:
http://tinyurl.com/zf3ytmj
Yes, she can "grow into the role" but it's not as though she's never spoken at the Dispatch Box - she was Home Secretary for five years. As you say, it may be people don't want comedy but those PMs who have been LOTOs have had to learn the art of the quick riposte and the well-aimed jab (Cameron and Blair both did it well). As she has never been LOTO (though she may be one day you never know), it's a skill she's not had to master.
The problem with the HoC is that its structure and fittings are massively ornate, and can often only be worked on by specialists in paintings, fabrics, plastering, stonework etc. These are only available at a premium.
As an aside, I've often been around churches, and particularly cathedrals, and seen stonework being replaced. Since we have 3D scanning now, would it be possible to automate the chiseling and creation of ornate stone blockwork? Scan in the old piece, 'fix' it in a 3D package, and allow the machine/robot to do the work.
It's almost certainly more complex than that, especially in blocks that are not freestone and have strata and flaws that have to be worked around. But it would surely save money.
It's not as though either leader needs to win over or give succour to their MPs for an amusingly diverse set of reasons.
Nothing lasts forever and I wonder how long it will be before May starts facing more trouble from behind her than in front of her.
This is perhaps an artefact of the shortcutted leadership election, where there was no real chance for her own views to come out (compared to her opponent who was busy shooting herself in the feet).
Can anyone say what May stands for?
(Note: I'm not saying she's doing a bad job. I'm just unsure of where she wants to head).
Worth a watch.
[edit for link]
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2204371/
I'd like to see a breakdown of the costs quite honestly, of course it will cost alot - but if it can be done well, and properly for £3.8 Bn rather than £4.1 say then that is a £0.3 Bn saving...
With Corbyn's previous attempt going off on one wrt Boris wasn't a smart play methinks seeing as if it is turned into a personality/likeability contest on either side then he will be rightly shellacked.
Same with May heading off on a tangent about Corbyn's unpopularity in some poll or other.
They are both well suited to sticking to issues of substance and policy, there is plenty of material for questions and answers for the pair of them.
The only thing in her favour is that she knows to keep quiet rather than open her mouth and remove any doubt that she is a fool. This is a step up from most of the cabinet and the 3 Brexiteers in particular I suppose!
"Thing is, Jezza is a laugh-free zone."
Don't forget that putting the world to rights is a serious business. Trotsky was never a bundle of laughs even before the ice pick incident. Nearly everyone else is a clown in their eyes and there's no guarantee that re-education always works.
When you're the font of all wisdom, coarsening matters with humour is beneath you.
My dad was in building, and as a child he told me one golden rule about architects: never give free rein to 'their' vision. Control and subjugate them. If you do not, you will not pay for 'your' building: you will pay more to build what *they* want, their dreams.
The HOC are iconic, and particularly the exterior. A problem is that the choice of materials in Victorian times were non-ideal, and the stonework has been troublesome ever since - I think it's been reclad twice already. We need t avoid being in this position in another sixty years.
Like you, I'm less certain now. The fact is in opposition she wasn't near the front line - her time as party Chairman was in the IDS era and frankly under Cameron she had fairly minor roles. Her elevation to Home Secretary in 2010 was probably thought by most as the pinnacle of her career.
She claims to be a "liberal conservative" (whatever that means) but so did Cameron famously. I think she's in the Heath/Heseltine mould rather than a Thatcherite.
She's a blank slate and everyone is projecting their aspirations (especially in relation to Brexit) onto her. She wasn't afraid as Party Chairman to tell the Conservatives things they didn't want to hear - she may well have to deal with hostility from the media and her own backbenchers and as major showed, there's no point being "nice" if the other guy is a "bastard".
"We need to avoid being in this position in another sixty years"
Won't be a huge issue for me at that point.
Yes, we do need to see a breakdown of costs and sanely analyse them.
One other problems: I can see such a large workplan taking up most of the country's experts in various fields.
In this she is similar to Thatcher, though I doubt with quite the same level of intelligence and certainly not the same level of cut-through communication skill.
Of course you would have to occasionally dump the HoC and HoL somewhere when it came time for their chambers to be renewed but that could be worked around. Perhaps a tent on parliament square green?
Edit: Ah a new build.
qz.com draws our attention to what foreign students are taught about the order in which adjectives should be used to describe nouns in the English language.
Adjectives have to be in order of:
opinion-size-age-shape-colour-origin-material-purpose then the noun.
For example a lovely little old rectangular green French silver whittling knife.
Only by bringing back more grammar schools will such order be maintained.
Source: http://qz.com/#773738/how-non-english-speakers-are-taught-this-crazy-english-grammar-rule-you-know-but-youve-never-heard-of/?utm_source=YPH_link_1
"Scandal as plan to blow up the Houses of Parliament are discovered to make way for Mega Mosque"
Edit: Liverpool? I mean
But yet it is going ahead...
Asked how Scotland would be able to stay within the UK single market - which was worth four times more to the Scottish economy than the European single market, - if it became independent, Prof Keating told the Commons Scottish Affairs committee: “They don’t.
“If it is a hard Brexit and the UK comes out of the European single market, then it makes it much more difficult for Scotland to become independent because you’d have that hard border with the UK market.” He then added: “Ironically enough, the closer the UK gets to the single market, then the less grievance Scotland maybe has but the more easy it is to become independent because at that point you could have access to both markets.”
http://m.heraldscotland.com/news/14729086.Hard_Brexit_would_make_Scottish_independence_more_difficult__claims_academic
How many other Party Chairmen have spoken to the Conservative Party as she did?
I think we know how 'robust' she is capable of being.
You characterise her as 'evasive & shifty' before she makes up mind.
Perhaps she's not as skilled a dissembler as Cameron or Blair.
That's a bad thing?
It will be interesting to see if she is as confrontational with the audience at the conference.
I did like Mrs CycleFree's interpretation of that event. As she put it the other day:
"Feck! Where's the Booze? Get some of that Evian over here and let's get this sorted"
Sounds about right..
......why are we selling ARM to the Japanese ffs are we mad the French would never allow a company like ARM to go to foreign hands ffs and this is to a country who just recently threatened us making one of the garuntees worthless. We're the dumbest people in the world, let's just sell Buckingham Palace while we're at it, market forces must be worshipped at all costs!
At least Ed Milliban made a fuss of AstraZeneca being sold to the predator Pfizer which has a history of closing down research centres, not a peep out of Corbyn about ARM. Useless.
"Roger Page, who was Lord King’s parliamentary aide from 1999, when he was ennobled, to his death from a heart attack in January 2013, said: “I don’t remember that name. It doesn’t ring a bell at all. I was Lord King’s adviser and [parliamentary] passholder at the House of Lords right up until his death... and that is the first I have known about [Mr Dragusin].”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/07/keith-vaz-the-charity-worker-and-the-mystery-of-their-trips-to-i/
The Leader's role is different from the Chairman's ('rally the troops' vs 'knock them into shape') - why would she want to be confrontational at conference?