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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Boundaries of Northern Ireland: 1921 – 2020

SystemSystem Posts: 11,710
edited September 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Boundaries of Northern Ireland: 1921 – 2020

1921 – 1979
The six counties of Northern Ireland (created after the creation of the Irish Free State in 1921) have been returning MP’s to Westminster centuries, but it is only since 1950 when the concept of one elector, one vote was established with the abolition of the university seats that Northern Irelan’s MP’s really started to count.

Read the full story here


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  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,018
    Second, and great work Harry! I look forward to seeing your predictions of who'd win each seat on the new boundaries.
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    Eveninng all.

    Most impressive Mr Hayfield – many thanks for all the effort involved.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,963
    Well done Harry, great effort. 17 down, 583 to go!
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,007
    Ooh Aah up the boundary changes :D
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,425
    Wow. The ways this site finds to inform me never cease to astonish me. Many thanks.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,037
    edited September 2016
    The BBC published the supposed new boundaries earlier today

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-37281097
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Can I just say, for the record, that James Craig was an arsehole who desrves to burn in hell for what he did to Irelandf
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    OMG

    This is hilarious, not necessarily for the intended reasons

    http://observer.com/2016/09/this-viral-hashtag-about-men-having-periods-took-an-interesting-turn/
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,963
    PlatoSaid said:
    What the...?

    Proof, if ever it were needed, that
    1. Twitter is the ultimate echo chamber,
    and
    2. There are some special little snowflakes out there who are determined to see the extreme offensiveness in absolutely everything.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited September 2016
    It has been suggested that only Sinn Fein are likely to be happy with these proposals and that the Unionist parties will probably vote against them in Autumn 2018.
  • Options
    Charles said:

    Can I just say, for the record, that James Craig was an arsehole who desrves to burn in hell for what he did to Irelandf

    Inflicted a century of British rule on Ulster?
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,319
    Has Vaz just resigned as Chairman or has he also resigned from being on the Committee?

    Been out all day and media reports don't seem to be explicit on this.

    Or does one follow the other - ie if he was elected by MPs as Chairman then by resigning does he also leave the Committee?
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Perhaps we can stick BLM nitwits in one of these instead

    History
    1930s Outdoor Baby Cage. https://t.co/ykUcFpjBMK
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited September 2016
    Charles said:

    Can I just say, for the record, that James Craig was an arsehole who desrves to burn in hell for what he did to Irelandf

    "It would be rather interesting for historians of the future to compare a Catholic State launched in the South with a Protestant State launched in the North and to see which gets on the better and prospers the more. It is most interesting for me at the moment to watch how they are progressing. I am doing my best always to top the bill and to be ahead of the South." James Craig.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,319
    edited September 2016
    Can anyone provide a summary of the likely net changes in terms of seats?

    Obviously just one seat less so the net change can't be vast but how are seats (ie overall) changing - eg from safe to marginal etc?

    Presumably all current (sitting) NI MPs likely to vote against the Statutory Instrument? That's quite important - if any vote for then it would increase the chances of it passing quite a bit.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,018
    justin124 said:

    It has been suggested that only Sinn Fein are likely to be happy with these proposals and that the Unionist parties will probably vote against them in Autumn 2018.

    Link to the suggestion?
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,233
    https://medium.com/@steve4good/jeremy-corbyn-s-inconvenient-truth-34d7f462d2a6#.7b9tdey0o

    Worth reposting this. It is not just Corbyn's leadership skills (or lack of) which make him unfit to be Labour leader. It is what he believes, what he says and what he does.

    James Craig certainly deserves to burn in hell, as per @Charles below, but a special place should be reserved for the IRA and those who supported them who brought so much misery to so many for so long.
  • Options

    Charles said:

    Can I just say, for the record, that James Craig was an arsehole who desrves to burn in hell for what he did to Irelandf

    Inflicted a century of British rule on Ulster?
    I would have thought for breeding sectarianism more than anything
  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    Many thanks, Harry, that's an amazing piece of work.

    Good evening, everybody.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Can I just say, for the record, that James Craig was an arsehole who desrves to burn in hell for what he did to Irelandf

    Inflicted a century of British rule on Ulster?
    Edward Carson, a great man who deserved the British State Funeral he received, ensured the people of Ulster got to choose their own destiny.

    Craig, when he betrayed Carson, turned Northern Ireland into a sectarian hellhole for 50 years.

  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    nunu said:

    Charles said:

    Can I just say, for the record, that James Craig was an arsehole who desrves to burn in hell for what he did to Irelandf

    "It would be rather interesting for historians of the future to compare a Catholic State launched in the South with a Protestant State launched in the North and to see which gets on the better and prospers the more. It is most interesting for me at the moment to watch how they are progressing. I am doing my best always to top the bill and to be ahead of the South." James Craig.
    The counterfactual - the future that Carson envisaged - was better than both
  • Options
    Not many marginals! Though I don't know where the seat is effectively disappearing from...

    Antrim East: DUP safe,
    Antrim North: DUP safe,
    Antrim West: DUP safe,
    Belfast East: DUP / Alliance marginal (DUP safe if Unionist pact in place),
    Belfast North West: SF / DUP marginal (unlikely to change if Unionist pact in place),
    Belfast South West: SF safe,
    Dalriada: DUP safe,
    Down North: Ind safe,
    Down South: SDLP safe,
    Down West: DUP safe,
    Fermanagh and South Tyrone: SF / UUP marginal (potential to change hands if Unionist pact in place),
    Foyle: SDLP safe,
    Glenshane: SF marginal (Unionist safe if Unionist pact in place),
    Newry and Armagh: SF safe,
    Strangford: DUP safe,
    Tyrone North: SF safe,
    Upper Bann and Blackwater: SF marginal (Unionist safe if Unionist pact in place)
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,233
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Can I just say, for the record, that James Craig was an arsehole who desrves to burn in hell for what he did to Irelandf

    Inflicted a century of British rule on Ulster?
    Edward Carson, a great man who deserved the British State Funeral he received, ensured the people of Ulster got to choose their own destiny.

    Craig, when he betrayed Carson, turned Northern Ireland into a sectarian hellhole for 50 years.

    Interesting jump from "Ulster" to "Northern Ireland" between your first and second sentences, there.

    :)
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    As I have said before on past performance , the first release of draft boundaries is likely to have little resemblance to the final approved ones .
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Kevin Schofield
    So Labour DID vote against a bill which Labour MP Caroline Flint successfully amended. Answers on a postcard please. https://t.co/1W6jrwEe0W
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    PlatoSaid said:

    Kevin Schofield
    So Labour DID vote against a bill which Labour MP Caroline Flint successfully amended. Answers on a postcard please. https://t.co/1W6jrwEe0W

    That's what happens when you're making it up as you go along.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Can I just say, for the record, that James Craig was an arsehole who desrves to burn in hell for what he did to Irelandf

    Inflicted a century of British rule on Ulster?
    Edward Carson, a great man who deserved the British State Funeral he received, ensured the people of Ulster got to choose their own destiny.

    Craig, when he betrayed Carson, turned Northern Ireland into a sectarian hellhole for 50 years.

    Interesting jump from "Ulster" to "Northern Ireland" between your first and second sentences, there.

    :)
    Sure. When the vote was taken all 9 counties (Ulster) got to decide. When Craig took control it was of the 6 counties of Northern Ireland.

    Anyone might think I know that whereof I speak ;)
  • Options
    Charles said:

    nunu said:

    Charles said:

    Can I just say, for the record, that James Craig was an arsehole who desrves to burn in hell for what he did to Irelandf

    "It would be rather interesting for historians of the future to compare a Catholic State launched in the South with a Protestant State launched in the North and to see which gets on the better and prospers the more. It is most interesting for me at the moment to watch how they are progressing. I am doing my best always to top the bill and to be ahead of the South." James Craig.
    The counterfactual - the future that Carson envisaged - was better than both
    Charles said:

    nunu said:

    Charles said:

    Can I just say, for the record, that James Craig was an arsehole who desrves to burn in hell for what he did to Irelandf

    "It would be rather interesting for historians of the future to compare a Catholic State launched in the South with a Protestant State launched in the North and to see which gets on the better and prospers the more. It is most interesting for me at the moment to watch how they are progressing. I am doing my best always to top the bill and to be ahead of the South." James Craig.
    The counterfactual - the future that Carson envisaged - was better than both
    Which was?
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Ned Simmons
    Owen Smith: 'We're not champagne socialists but we do want champagne for everyone.' I'm sold. https://t.co/fS5oyxOvVp
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited September 2016

    Charles said:

    nunu said:

    Charles said:

    Can I just say, for the record, that James Craig was an arsehole who desrves to burn in hell for what he did to Irelandf

    "It would be rather interesting for historians of the future to compare a Catholic State launched in the South with a Protestant State launched in the North and to see which gets on the better and prospers the more. It is most interesting for me at the moment to watch how they are progressing. I am doing my best always to top the bill and to be ahead of the South." James Craig.
    The counterfactual - the future that Carson envisaged - was better than both
    Charles said:

    nunu said:

    Charles said:

    Can I just say, for the record, that James Craig was an arsehole who desrves to burn in hell for what he did to Irelandf

    "It would be rather interesting for historians of the future to compare a Catholic State launched in the South with a Protestant State launched in the North and to see which gets on the better and prospers the more. It is most interesting for me at the moment to watch how they are progressing. I am doing my best always to top the bill and to be ahead of the South." James Craig.
    The counterfactual - the future that Carson envisaged - was better than both
    Which was?
    First preference was a United Ireland inside the union

    Second was integrated Ulster (which would have been much more balanced between Catholic and Protestant)

    Third was a liberal, outward looking and progressive Northern Ireland

    What he got was Craig's dystopian dream of a benighted realm he controlled (Carson was forced to retire to London)
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    An excellent piece of work, Sir! You won't be reading detail like this in the broadsheets.

    Unless they nick it...
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    PlatoSaid said:

    Ned Simmons
    Owen Smith: 'We're not champagne socialists but we do want champagne for everyone.' I'm sold. https://t.co/fS5oyxOvVp

    Free owls champers for everyone....
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    It has been suggested that only Sinn Fein are likely to be happy with these proposals and that the Unionist parties will probably vote against them in Autumn 2018.

    Link to the suggestion?
    BBC report earlier.
  • Options
    dodradedodrade Posts: 595

    Not many marginals! Though I don't know where the seat is effectively disappearing from...

    Antrim East: DUP safe,
    Antrim North: DUP safe,
    Antrim West: DUP safe,
    Belfast East: DUP / Alliance marginal (DUP safe if Unionist pact in place),
    Belfast North West: SF / DUP marginal (unlikely to change if Unionist pact in place),
    Belfast South West: SF safe,
    Dalriada: DUP safe,
    Down North: Ind safe,
    Down South: SDLP safe,
    Down West: DUP safe,
    Fermanagh and South Tyrone: SF / UUP marginal (potential to change hands if Unionist pact in place),
    Foyle: SDLP safe,
    Glenshane: SF marginal (Unionist safe if Unionist pact in place),
    Newry and Armagh: SF safe,
    Strangford: DUP safe,
    Tyrone North: SF safe,
    Upper Bann and Blackwater: SF marginal (Unionist safe if Unionist pact in place)

    South Belfast.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,233
    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Can I just say, for the record, that James Craig was an arsehole who desrves to burn in hell for what he did to Irelandf

    Inflicted a century of British rule on Ulster?
    Edward Carson, a great man who deserved the British State Funeral he received, ensured the people of Ulster got to choose their own destiny.

    Craig, when he betrayed Carson, turned Northern Ireland into a sectarian hellhole for 50 years.

    Interesting jump from "Ulster" to "Northern Ireland" between your first and second sentences, there.

    :)
    Sure. When the vote was taken all 9 counties (Ulster) got to decide. When Craig took control it was of the 6 counties of Northern Ireland.

    Anyone might think I know that whereof I speak ;)
    And in that change lay the seeds of much misery and trouble.

    Incidentally, I have the original land deeds for my family's farm in Ireland from the 1780's, from a time when Ireland - the whole of the island - was independent, before the Wolf Tone rebellion, before the 1801 Act of Union.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,018
    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    It has been suggested that only Sinn Fein are likely to be happy with these proposals and that the Unionist parties will probably vote against them in Autumn 2018.

    Link to the suggestion?
    BBC report earlier.
    Thanks!
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154
    PlatoSaid said:

    Ned Simmons
    Owen Smith: 'We're not champagne socialists but we do want champagne for everyone.' I'm sold. https://t.co/fS5oyxOvVp

    What an oik. That's what Prosecco is for....
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Can I just say, for the record, that James Craig was an arsehole who desrves to burn in hell for what he did to Irelandf

    Inflicted a century of British rule on Ulster?
    Edward Carson, a great man who deserved the British State Funeral he received, ensured the people of Ulster got to choose their own destiny.

    Craig, when he betrayed Carson, turned Northern Ireland into a sectarian hellhole for 50 years.

    Interesting jump from "Ulster" to "Northern Ireland" between your first and second sentences, there.

    :)
    Sure. When the vote was taken all 9 counties (Ulster) got to decide. When Craig took control it was of the 6 counties of Northern Ireland.

    Anyone might think I know that whereof I speak ;)
    And in that change lay the seeds of much misery and trouble.

    Incidentally, I have the original land deeds for my family's farm in Ireland from the 1780's, from a time when Ireland - the whole of the island - was independent, before the Wolf Tone rebellion, before the 1801 Act of Union.
    Indeed it did. We still the Chief Justice's desk and a few oddments but most of it was burnt in the 1920s when we were politely asked to leave. It would be nice to go back to Connemara and spend some time there - I've been to Galway a few times since the family's banishments were lifted in the 1990s but never out West.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Parly
    #KeithVaz will cede his place on liaison cmtee but remains member of admin cmtee and jt cmtee on national security https://t.co/FjhdnwkGVD
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,375
    MikeL said:

    Has Vaz just resigned as Chairman or has he also resigned from being on the Committee?

    Been out all day and media reports don't seem to be explicit on this.

    Or does one follow the other - ie if he was elected by MPs as Chairman then by resigning does he also leave the Committee?

    The rules have changed since I was there but this

    https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-information-office/Brief-Guides/Select-Committees.pdf

    appears to indicate that chairmen are elected separately and are not normal members, so resigning means you're no longer on the committee at all.

    If there's a market on it, I'd make Chuka the favourite, even though Yvette is standing, because Chuka is currently a member already.

    My impression is that there's a certain sympathy in the Commons for Vaz, since after a career with recurrent controversy he seemed to have found an effective niche: he was seen as one of the stronger committee chairs. In addition, if no law was broken, many MPs are generally aware of one or another embarrassing personal matter that they'd rather not see the light of day, so there's a "There but for the grace..." factor. It's clear that he couldn't chair the committee given its focus on the prostitution issue, but unless more comes to light I think MPs will now mostly be gentle with him.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,905
    Jeremy Corbyn has revealed he is investigating allegations that Labour’s leadership contest is being rigged against him after a number of his supporters received letters barring them from taking part.
    In an interview with the Guardian, the Labour leader said he hoped party officials were not working against him but could not rule out the possibility.
    “I’m surprised at the numbers of people who’ve been denied a vote and I’m surprised at the lack of reason that’s been given to people,” he said, in his strongest intervention on the subject so far.
    “I’m concerned about that because surely in a democratic process everyone should be entitled to vote unless there is some very good reason against them.”
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,905
    http://www.thecanary.co/2016/09/06/jeremy-corbyn-makes-move-claims-leadership-contest-rigged/

    The Compliance Unit making these decisions includes 2 right wing members of the NEC that have been voted off FFS
  • Options

    MikeL said:

    Has Vaz just resigned as Chairman or has he also resigned from being on the Committee?

    Been out all day and media reports don't seem to be explicit on this.

    Or does one follow the other - ie if he was elected by MPs as Chairman then by resigning does he also leave the Committee?

    The rules have changed since I was there but this

    https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-information-office/Brief-Guides/Select-Committees.pdf

    appears to indicate that chairmen are elected separately and are not normal members, so resigning means you're no longer on the committee at all.

    If there's a market on it, I'd make Chuka the favourite, even though Yvette is standing, because Chuka is currently a member already.

    My impression is that there's a certain sympathy in the Commons for Vaz, since after a career with recurrent controversy he seemed to have found an effective niche: he was seen as one of the stronger committee chairs. In addition, if no law was broken, many MPs are generally aware of one or another embarrassing personal matter that they'd rather not see the light of day, so there's a "There but for the grace..." factor. It's clear that he couldn't chair the committee given its focus on the prostitution issue, but unless more comes to light I think MPs will now mostly be gentle with him.
    You seem quite convinced that it will be maintained an opposition MP. But that must be a shift from when Vaz took over, during a Labour administration.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    FTPT

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/773206341296979972

    Anyone still believe Hillary is well clear?

    In 2012 the Roper Centre Had Independents voting for Romney 50/45 in his favour.
    Roper also had their Democrat/Republican/Independent split at 38/32/29, in recent times there has always been more people who are registered as Democracts than Republicans and as a result 'Independents' skew Republican.

    The CNN/ORC poll has their sample split as 28/32/40. The sample is not great or there has been a mass deregistration of Democrats that has otherwise gone unnoticed.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    Jeremy Corbyn has revealed he is investigating allegations that Labour’s leadership contest is being rigged against him after a number of his supporters received letters barring them from taking part.
    In an interview with the Guardian, the Labour leader said he hoped party officials were not working against him but could not rule out the possibility.
    “I’m surprised at the numbers of people who’ve been denied a vote and I’m surprised at the lack of reason that’s been given to people,” he said, in his strongest intervention on the subject so far.
    “I’m concerned about that because surely in a democratic process everyone should be entitled to vote unless there is some very good reason against them.”

    Are these the Corbyn supporters who are members of other parties?
  • Options
    I apologise now for the analogy I use in the morning thread.

    It'll have you all reaching for the mind bleach.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,319
    edited September 2016

    MikeL said:

    Has Vaz just resigned as Chairman or has he also resigned from being on the Committee?

    Been out all day and media reports don't seem to be explicit on this.

    Or does one follow the other - ie if he was elected by MPs as Chairman then by resigning does he also leave the Committee?

    The rules have changed since I was there but this

    https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-information-office/Brief-Guides/Select-Committees.pdf

    appears to indicate that chairmen are elected separately and are not normal members, so resigning means you're no longer on the committee at all.

    If there's a market on it, I'd make Chuka the favourite, even though Yvette is standing, because Chuka is currently a member already.

    My impression is that there's a certain sympathy in the Commons for Vaz, since after a career with recurrent controversy he seemed to have found an effective niche: he was seen as one of the stronger committee chairs. In addition, if no law was broken, many MPs are generally aware of one or another embarrassing personal matter that they'd rather not see the light of day, so there's a "There but for the grace..." factor. It's clear that he couldn't chair the committee given its focus on the prostitution issue, but unless more comes to light I think MPs will now mostly be gentle with him.
    Thanks Nick - much appreciated.

    I'm afraid that journalism standards have fallen so much that it's now par for the course that the simple most basic of facts isn't even mentioned in any report on the subject.
  • Options
    Excellent article, Harry.

    I like the name Dalriada for a constituency. Lots of history behind it, and for once in Ireland none of it to do with Catholics vs Protestants.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,319
    edited September 2016

    MikeL said:

    Has Vaz just resigned as Chairman or has he also resigned from being on the Committee?

    Been out all day and media reports don't seem to be explicit on this.

    Or does one follow the other - ie if he was elected by MPs as Chairman then by resigning does he also leave the Committee?

    The rules have changed since I was there but this

    https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-information-office/Brief-Guides/Select-Committees.pdf

    appears to indicate that chairmen are elected separately and are not normal members, so resigning means you're no longer on the committee at all.

    If there's a market on it, I'd make Chuka the favourite, even though Yvette is standing, because Chuka is currently a member already.

    My impression is that there's a certain sympathy in the Commons for Vaz, since after a career with recurrent controversy he seemed to have found an effective niche: he was seen as one of the stronger committee chairs. In addition, if no law was broken, many MPs are generally aware of one or another embarrassing personal matter that they'd rather not see the light of day, so there's a "There but for the grace..." factor. It's clear that he couldn't chair the committee given its focus on the prostitution issue, but unless more comes to light I think MPs will now mostly be gentle with him.
    You seem quite convinced that it will be maintained an opposition MP. But that must be a shift from when Vaz took over, during a Labour administration.
    I think the parties agree the total number of committee chairs each gets at the start of the Parliament - in this case post 2015.

    Thus it will remain with Lab.
  • Options
    On topic, a brilliant analysis Harry
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079
    Much obliged Harry.
  • Options
    Jonathan said:

    Jeremy Corbyn has revealed he is investigating allegations that Labour’s leadership contest is being rigged against him after a number of his supporters received letters barring them from taking part.
    In an interview with the Guardian, the Labour leader said he hoped party officials were not working against him but could not rule out the possibility.
    “I’m surprised at the numbers of people who’ve been denied a vote and I’m surprised at the lack of reason that’s been given to people,” he said, in his strongest intervention on the subject so far.
    “I’m concerned about that because surely in a democratic process everyone should be entitled to vote unless there is some very good reason against them.”

    Are these the Corbyn supporters who are members of other parties?
    One person got refused because they *tweeted in support of the Green Party*.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    Jonathan said:

    Jeremy Corbyn has revealed he is investigating allegations that Labour’s leadership contest is being rigged against him after a number of his supporters received letters barring them from taking part.
    In an interview with the Guardian, the Labour leader said he hoped party officials were not working against him but could not rule out the possibility.
    “I’m surprised at the numbers of people who’ve been denied a vote and I’m surprised at the lack of reason that’s been given to people,” he said, in his strongest intervention on the subject so far.
    “I’m concerned about that because surely in a democratic process everyone should be entitled to vote unless there is some very good reason against them.”

    Are these the Corbyn supporters who are members of other parties?
    One person got refused because they *tweeted in support of the Green Party*.
    Can't take it seriously on the day UB40 came out for Corbyn. Who are Kajagoogoo going to back?
  • Options
    619619 Posts: 1,784
    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/773206341296979972

    Anyone still believe Hillary is well clear?

    In 2012 the Roper Centre Had Independents voting for Romney 50/45 in his favour.
    Roper also had their Democrat/Republican/Independent split at 38/32/29, in recent times there has always been more people who are registered as Democracts than Republicans and as a result 'Independents' skew Republican.

    The CNN/ORC poll has their sample split as 28/32/40. The sample is not great or there has been a mass deregistration of Democrats that has otherwise gone unnoticed.
    i think getting excited over a 729 person sample is somewhat... early by trumpers

    clinton isnt clear, just a strong favourite.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,963
    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Has Vaz just resigned as Chairman or has he also resigned from being on the Committee?

    Been out all day and media reports don't seem to be explicit on this.

    Or does one follow the other - ie if he was elected by MPs as Chairman then by resigning does he also leave the Committee?

    The rules have changed since I was there but this

    https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-information-office/Brief-Guides/Select-Committees.pdf

    appears to indicate that chairmen are elected separately and are not normal members, so resigning means you're no longer on the committee at all.

    If there's a market on it, I'd make Chuka the favourite, even though Yvette is standing, because Chuka is currently a member already.

    My impression is that there's a certain sympathy in the Commons for Vaz, since after a career with recurrent controversy he seemed to have found an effective niche: he was seen as one of the stronger committee chairs. In addition, if no law was broken, many MPs are generally aware of one or another embarrassing personal matter that they'd rather not see the light of day, so there's a "There but for the grace..." factor. It's clear that he couldn't chair the committee given its focus on the prostitution issue, but unless more comes to light I think MPs will now mostly be gentle with him.
    Thanks Nick - much appreciated.

    I'm afraid that journalism standards have fallen so much that it's now par for the course that the simple most basic of facts isn't even mentioned in any report on the subject.
    The wonders of PB, someone asks a random question about Parliamentary select committee process that the press can't be arsed to report properly, and up pops a former MP to enlighten us!
  • Options
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jeremy Corbyn has revealed he is investigating allegations that Labour’s leadership contest is being rigged against him after a number of his supporters received letters barring them from taking part.
    In an interview with the Guardian, the Labour leader said he hoped party officials were not working against him but could not rule out the possibility.
    “I’m surprised at the numbers of people who’ve been denied a vote and I’m surprised at the lack of reason that’s been given to people,” he said, in his strongest intervention on the subject so far.
    “I’m concerned about that because surely in a democratic process everyone should be entitled to vote unless there is some very good reason against them.”

    Are these the Corbyn supporters who are members of other parties?
    One person got refused because they *tweeted in support of the Green Party*.
    Can't take it seriously on the day UB40 came out for Corbyn. Who are Kajagoogoo going to back?
    No one. They're Too Shy.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,629
    edited September 2016
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jeremy Corbyn has revealed he is investigating allegations that Labour’s leadership contest is being rigged against him after a number of his supporters received letters barring them from taking part.
    In an interview with the Guardian, the Labour leader said he hoped party officials were not working against him but could not rule out the possibility.
    “I’m surprised at the numbers of people who’ve been denied a vote and I’m surprised at the lack of reason that’s been given to people,” he said, in his strongest intervention on the subject so far.
    “I’m concerned about that because surely in a democratic process everyone should be entitled to vote unless there is some very good reason against them.”

    Are these the Corbyn supporters who are members of other parties?
    One person got refused because they *tweeted in support of the Green Party*.
    Can't take it seriously on the day UB40 came out for Corbyn. Who are Kajagoogoo going to back?
    They're too shy.

    Edit - Beaten by Alastair on the 80s pop music reference.

    I'm clearly losing my mojo
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    Excellent article, Harry.

    I like the name Dalriada for a constituency. Lots of history behind it, and for once in Ireland none of it to do with Catholics vs Protestants.

    But shouldn't it be Dalriada South?
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited September 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    Ned Simmons
    Owen Smith: 'We're not champagne socialists but we do want champagne for everyone.' I'm sold. https://t.co/fS5oyxOvVp

    I am down but only if it comes in pint sizes bottles.

    On a serious note I am really excited about the prospect of champagne coming in pint sizes bottles once we leave the EU.
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    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    nunu said:

    Charles said:

    Can I just say, for the record, that James Craig was an arsehole who desrves to burn in hell for what he did to Irelandf

    "It would be rather interesting for historians of the future to compare a Catholic State launched in the South with a Protestant State launched in the North and to see which gets on the better and prospers the more. It is most interesting for me at the moment to watch how they are progressing. I am doing my best always to top the bill and to be ahead of the South." James Craig.
    The counterfactual - the future that Carson envisaged - was better than both
    Charles said:

    nunu said:

    Charles said:

    Can I just say, for the record, that James Craig was an arsehole who desrves to burn in hell for what he did to Irelandf

    "It would be rather interesting for historians of the future to compare a Catholic State launched in the South with a Protestant State launched in the North and to see which gets on the better and prospers the more. It is most interesting for me at the moment to watch how they are progressing. I am doing my best always to top the bill and to be ahead of the South." James Craig.
    The counterfactual - the future that Carson envisaged - was better than both
    Which was?
    First preference was a United Ireland inside the union

    Second was integrated Ulster (which would have been much more balanced between Catholic and Protestant)

    Third was a liberal, outward looking and progressive Northern Ireland

    What he got was Craig's dystopian dream of a benighted realm he controlled (Carson was forced to retire to London)
    Thanks.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jeremy Corbyn has revealed he is investigating allegations that Labour’s leadership contest is being rigged against him after a number of his supporters received letters barring them from taking part.
    In an interview with the Guardian, the Labour leader said he hoped party officials were not working against him but could not rule out the possibility.
    “I’m surprised at the numbers of people who’ve been denied a vote and I’m surprised at the lack of reason that’s been given to people,” he said, in his strongest intervention on the subject so far.
    “I’m concerned about that because surely in a democratic process everyone should be entitled to vote unless there is some very good reason against them.”

    Are these the Corbyn supporters who are members of other parties?
    One person got refused because they *tweeted in support of the Green Party*.
    Can't take it seriously on the day UB40 came out for Corbyn. Who are Kajagoogoo going to back?
    They're too shy.

    Edit - Beaten by Alastair on the 80s pop music reference.

    I'm clearly losing my mojo
    Chin up, you still have your analogies requiring mind bleech.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,018
    edited September 2016
    MP_SE said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Ned Simmons
    Owen Smith: 'We're not champagne socialists but we do want champagne for everyone.' I'm sold. https://t.co/fS5oyxOvVp

    I am down but only if it comes in pint sizes bottles.

    On a serious note I am really excited about the prospect of champagne coming in pint sizes bottles once we leave the EU.
    £350 million a weeks worth :D
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,018
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jeremy Corbyn has revealed he is investigating allegations that Labour’s leadership contest is being rigged against him after a number of his supporters received letters barring them from taking part.
    In an interview with the Guardian, the Labour leader said he hoped party officials were not working against him but could not rule out the possibility.
    “I’m surprised at the numbers of people who’ve been denied a vote and I’m surprised at the lack of reason that’s been given to people,” he said, in his strongest intervention on the subject so far.
    “I’m concerned about that because surely in a democratic process everyone should be entitled to vote unless there is some very good reason against them.”

    Are these the Corbyn supporters who are members of other parties?
    One person got refused because they *tweeted in support of the Green Party*.
    Can't take it seriously on the day UB40 came out for Corbyn. Who are Kajagoogoo going to back?
    They're too shy.

    Edit - Beaten by Alastair on the 80s pop music reference.

    I'm clearly losing my mojo
    Chin up, you still have your analogies requiring mind bleech.
    As you still have your magnificent larder/pantry post to hold on to.. heh :D
  • Options
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jeremy Corbyn has revealed he is investigating allegations that Labour’s leadership contest is being rigged against him after a number of his supporters received letters barring them from taking part.
    In an interview with the Guardian, the Labour leader said he hoped party officials were not working against him but could not rule out the possibility.
    “I’m surprised at the numbers of people who’ve been denied a vote and I’m surprised at the lack of reason that’s been given to people,” he said, in his strongest intervention on the subject so far.
    “I’m concerned about that because surely in a democratic process everyone should be entitled to vote unless there is some very good reason against them.”

    Are these the Corbyn supporters who are members of other parties?
    One person got refused because they *tweeted in support of the Green Party*.
    Can't take it seriously on the day UB40 came out for Corbyn. Who are Kajagoogoo going to back?
    If he gets The Smiths I'll start listening.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,007

    MikeL said:

    Has Vaz just resigned as Chairman or has he also resigned from being on the Committee?

    Been out all day and media reports don't seem to be explicit on this.

    Or does one follow the other - ie if he was elected by MPs as Chairman then by resigning does he also leave the Committee?

    The rules have changed since I was there but this

    https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-information-office/Brief-Guides/Select-Committees.pdf

    appears to indicate that chairmen are elected separately and are not normal members, so resigning means you're no longer on the committee at all.

    If there's a market on it, I'd make Chuka the favourite, even though Yvette is standing, because Chuka is currently a member already.

    My impression is that there's a certain sympathy in the Commons for Vaz, since after a career with recurrent controversy he seemed to have found an effective niche: he was seen as one of the stronger committee chairs. In addition, if no law was broken, many MPs are generally aware of one or another embarrassing personal matter that they'd rather not see the light of day, so there's a "There but for the grace..." factor. It's clear that he couldn't chair the committee given its focus on the prostitution issue, but unless more comes to light I think MPs will now mostly be gentle with him.
    Is offering to pay for a class A drug not an issue with his fellow MPs. Personally I'm in favour of relaxing drug laws somewhat... but the last Labour goverment was ostensibly very anti-drugs even to the point of seconding scientific opinion to be so.

    Sorry but I can smell the hypocrisy from here.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited September 2016
    Charles said:

    Can I just say, for the record, that James Craig was an arsehole who desrves to burn in hell for what he did to Irelandf

    If everyone who had buggered up Ireland was burning in Hell, there would be nowhere near enough room for the rest of us!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jeremy Corbyn has revealed he is investigating allegations that Labour’s leadership contest is being rigged against him after a number of his supporters received letters barring them from taking part.
    In an interview with the Guardian, the Labour leader said he hoped party officials were not working against him but could not rule out the possibility.
    “I’m surprised at the numbers of people who’ve been denied a vote and I’m surprised at the lack of reason that’s been given to people,” he said, in his strongest intervention on the subject so far.
    “I’m concerned about that because surely in a democratic process everyone should be entitled to vote unless there is some very good reason against them.”

    Are these the Corbyn supporters who are members of other parties?
    One person got refused because they *tweeted in support of the Green Party*.
    Can't take it seriously on the day UB40 came out for Corbyn. Who are Kajagoogoo going to back?
    They're too shy.

    Edit - Beaten by Alastair on the 80s pop music reference.

    I'm clearly losing my mojo
    Chin up, you still have your analogies requiring mind bleech.
    As you still have your magnificent larder/pantry post to hold on to.. heh :D
    It's the small things that are important.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    edited September 2016
    I see NP-exMP is also pushing the no law broken angle. The Mirror scoop wasn't only about bonking prozzies.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Can I just say, for the record, that James Craig was an arsehole who desrves to burn in hell for what he did to Irelandf

    If everyone who had buggered up Ireland was burning in Hell, there would be nowhere near enough room for the rest of us!
    Craig was special. I'm a most forgiving man. Except for him. :hushed:
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    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/773206341296979972

    Anyone still believe Hillary is well clear?

    In 2012 the Roper Centre Had Independents voting for Romney 50/45 in his favour.
    Roper also had their Democrat/Republican/Independent split at 38/32/29, in recent times there has always been more people who are registered as Democracts than Republicans and as a result 'Independents' skew Republican.

    The CNN/ORC poll has their sample split as 28/32/40. The sample is not great or there has been a mass deregistration of Democrats that has otherwise gone unnoticed.
    Not that it matters, but if there's one thing likely to turn me to the Trump camp it's a "back of the queue" attitude to post-Brexit Britain by the US.

    Somehow, I doubt Hillary will be different to Obama.
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    Interesting Vaz teaser at the bottom of the Times front page:

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/773267745890824192

    One suspects that this story may unfold further.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jeremy Corbyn has revealed he is investigating allegations that Labour’s leadership contest is being rigged against him after a number of his supporters received letters barring them from taking part.
    In an interview with the Guardian, the Labour leader said he hoped party officials were not working against him but could not rule out the possibility.
    “I’m surprised at the numbers of people who’ve been denied a vote and I’m surprised at the lack of reason that’s been given to people,” he said, in his strongest intervention on the subject so far.
    “I’m concerned about that because surely in a democratic process everyone should be entitled to vote unless there is some very good reason against them.”

    Are these the Corbyn supporters who are members of other parties?
    One person got refused because they *tweeted in support of the Green Party*.
    Can't take it seriously on the day UB40 came out for Corbyn. Who are Kajagoogoo going to back?
    They're too shy.

    Edit - Beaten by Alastair on the 80s pop music reference.

    I'm clearly losing my mojo
    Surely the eighties band to endorse Owen should be The Smiths?

  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    edited September 2016

    Interesting Vaz teaser at the bottom of the Times front page:

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/773267745890824192

    One suspects that this story may unfold further.

    They missed...also as personal decorator...As I said below, this story and media interest isn't only about bonking prozzies. Allegations which we can't discuss here range from minor law breaking to extremely serious allegations.
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    @ AlastairMeeks - I struggle to believe that was an accident.

    Officials should be well-briefed by now on displaying documents in public.
  • Options

    I see NP-exMP is pushing the no law broken angle. The Mirror scoop wasn't only about bonking prozzies.

    The Mirror should have kicked this off by knocking on his door and asking him to take the 'Vaz doorstep challenge' to see if his dirty laundry washed whiter than white.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,018
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jeremy Corbyn has revealed he is investigating allegations that Labour’s leadership contest is being rigged against him after a number of his supporters received letters barring them from taking part.
    In an interview with the Guardian, the Labour leader said he hoped party officials were not working against him but could not rule out the possibility.
    “I’m surprised at the numbers of people who’ve been denied a vote and I’m surprised at the lack of reason that’s been given to people,” he said, in his strongest intervention on the subject so far.
    “I’m concerned about that because surely in a democratic process everyone should be entitled to vote unless there is some very good reason against them.”

    Are these the Corbyn supporters who are members of other parties?
    One person got refused because they *tweeted in support of the Green Party*.
    Can't take it seriously on the day UB40 came out for Corbyn. Who are Kajagoogoo going to back?
    They're too shy.

    Edit - Beaten by Alastair on the 80s pop music reference.

    I'm clearly losing my mojo
    Chin up, you still have your analogies requiring mind bleech.
    As you still have your magnificent larder/pantry post to hold on to.. heh :D
    It's the small things that are important.
    That's what I keep saying... :p
  • Options

    @ AlastairMeeks - I struggle to believe that was an accident.

    Officials should be well-briefed by now on displaying documents in public.

    It should be a disciplinary offence.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jeremy Corbyn has revealed he is investigating allegations that Labour’s leadership contest is being rigged against him after a number of his supporters received letters barring them from taking part.
    In an interview with the Guardian, the Labour leader said he hoped party officials were not working against him but could not rule out the possibility.
    “I’m surprised at the numbers of people who’ve been denied a vote and I’m surprised at the lack of reason that’s been given to people,” he said, in his strongest intervention on the subject so far.
    “I’m concerned about that because surely in a democratic process everyone should be entitled to vote unless there is some very good reason against them.”

    Are these the Corbyn supporters who are members of other parties?
    One person got refused because they *tweeted in support of the Green Party*.
    Can't take it seriously on the day UB40 came out for Corbyn. Who are Kajagoogoo going to back?
    They're too shy.

    Edit - Beaten by Alastair on the 80s pop music reference.

    I'm clearly losing my mojo
    Surely the eighties band to endorse Owen should be The Smiths?

    Heaven knows he's miserable now? (Or soon will be).
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    These NI maps are from Nicholas Whyte's site aren't they?
  • Options
    I assumed that Jeremy Corbyn's actions today were a coded message to his opponents. He's going to fix that rat, that's what he's going to do.
  • Options

    Jeremy Corbyn has revealed he is investigating allegations that Labour’s leadership contest is being rigged against him after a number of his supporters received letters barring them from taking part.
    In an interview with the Guardian, the Labour leader said he hoped party officials were not working against him but could not rule out the possibility.
    “I’m surprised at the numbers of people who’ve been denied a vote and I’m surprised at the lack of reason that’s been given to people,” he said, in his strongest intervention on the subject so far.
    “I’m concerned about that because surely in a democratic process everyone should be entitled to vote unless there is some very good reason against them.”

    Yesterday's news. Nonetheless, in any other context, the spectre of a leader of an organisation kite flying as he casts speculative innuendo against his own employees would be seen as bizarre. In this case, such behaviour is just what we've come to expect.
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    @ AlastairMeeks - I struggle to believe that was an accident.

    Officials should be well-briefed by now on displaying documents in public.

    It should be a disciplinary offence.
    Quite so. I don't even work in a particularly "sensitive" industry.

    But, as a matter of course to my firm and my client, I have all my papers fully sealed up in a wallet (at the very least) whenever I walk around the floor, yet alone the building.

    And I do it naturally. So God knows why civil servants don't.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    I assumed that Jeremy Corbyn's actions today were a coded message to his opponents. He's going to fix that rat, that's what he's going to do.

    Soon in need of his UB40 if he loses then?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,018
    edited September 2016

    @ AlastairMeeks - I struggle to believe that was an accident.

    Officials should be well-briefed by now on displaying documents in public.

    It should be a disciplinary offence.
    Quite so. I don't even work in a particularly "sensitive" industry.

    But, as a matter of course to my firm and my client, I have all my papers fully sealed up in a wallet (at the very least) whenever I walk around the floor, yet alone the building.

    And I do it naturally. So God knows why civil servants don't.
    A good way to accidentally leak proposals, assuming it was sanctioned from higher up.
  • Options
    Which seat is Dalriada?
  • Options

    @ AlastairMeeks - I struggle to believe that was an accident.

    Officials should be well-briefed by now on displaying documents in public.

    It should be a disciplinary offence.
    Quite so. I don't even work in a particularly "sensitive" industry.

    But, as a matter of course to my firm and my client, I have all my papers fully sealed up in a wallet (at the very least) whenever I walk around the floor, yet alone the building.

    And I do it naturally. So God knows why civil servants don't.
    It's one of the reasons why I have a man bag.
  • Options

    I assumed that Jeremy Corbyn's actions today were a coded message to his opponents. He's going to fix that rat, that's what he's going to do.

    Red Ed Whine :lol:
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    RobD said:

    @ AlastairMeeks - I struggle to believe that was an accident.

    Officials should be well-briefed by now on displaying documents in public.

    It should be a disciplinary offence.
    Quite so. I don't even work in a particularly "sensitive" industry.

    But, as a matter of course to my firm and my client, I have all my papers fully sealed up in a wallet (at the very least) whenever I walk around the floor, yet alone the building.

    And I do it naturally. So God knows why civil servants don't.
    A good way to accidentally leak proposals, assuming it was sanctioned from higher up.
    Surely not...
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    edited September 2016

    Which seat is Dalriada?

    Antrim and Argyll?
  • Options

    @ AlastairMeeks - I struggle to believe that was an accident.

    Officials should be well-briefed by now on displaying documents in public.

    It should be a disciplinary offence.
    Quite so. I don't even work in a particularly "sensitive" industry.

    But, as a matter of course to my firm and my client, I have all my papers fully sealed up in a wallet (at the very least) whenever I walk around the floor, yet alone the building.

    And I do it naturally. So God knows why civil servants don't.
    It's one of the reasons why I have a man bag.
    You still use dead trees?? :lol:
  • Options

    Which seat is Dalriada?

    A reshaped North Antrim with eastern parts of county Londonderry.
  • Options

    I assumed that Jeremy Corbyn's actions today were a coded message to his opponents. He's going to fix that rat, that's what he's going to do.

    Maybe also laying the groundwork for the sort of excuses that will be used in the eventuality that his expected victory is by somewhat less than the margin that his supporters expect?
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    RobD said:

    @ AlastairMeeks - I struggle to believe that was an accident.

    Officials should be well-briefed by now on displaying documents in public.

    It should be a disciplinary offence.
    Quite so. I don't even work in a particularly "sensitive" industry.

    But, as a matter of course to my firm and my client, I have all my papers fully sealed up in a wallet (at the very least) whenever I walk around the floor, yet alone the building.

    And I do it naturally. So God knows why civil servants don't.
    A good way to accidentally leak proposals, assuming it was sanctioned from higher up.
    I'm normally in the cock-up rather than conspiracy camp, but this has happened too many times before and the wording on display was very convenient.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,375
    MikeL said:


    You seem quite convinced that it will be maintained an opposition MP. But that must be a shift from when Vaz took over, during a Labour administration.

    I think the parties agree the total number of committee chairs each gets at the start of the Parliament - in this case post 2015.

    Thus it will remain with Lab.
    Yes, that's right. The link I posted earlier explains. Essentially the parties to hold the Select Committee chairs are agreed (stitched up, if you like) between the whips, but the actual people to take the slots are elected by MPs at large. Because of the strong consensus tradition of SCs, the chairmanship matters less than you might think, though it gives greatly raised profile when there's a big issue at hand.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    To be clear, Black Lace, creators of the Agadoo, are now trolling the Labour leadership election.

    How low can Labour go?

    On current trends, I am quite prepared to accept that there will be a moment for Labour where the Corbyn years are seen as a golden era, even if I can't quite imagine what that might actually look like.


  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Jonathan said:

    To be clear, Black Lace, creators of the Agadoo, are now trolling the Labour leadership election.

    What a time to be alive...
  • Options
    Jonathan said:

    To be clear, Black Lace, creators of the Agadoo, are now trolling the Labour leadership election.

    How low can Labour go?

    On current trends, I am quite prepared to accept that there will be a moment for Labour where the Corbyn years are seen as a golden era, even if I can't quite imagine what that might actually look like.


    It's a spoof. Looking at both twitter accounts, nothing like that exchange took place
  • Options

    Which seat is Dalriada?

    A reshaped North Antrim with eastern parts of county Londonderry.
    But Dalriada was a kingdom that included parts of western Scotland, seems a strange name to choose.
This discussion has been closed.