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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One more heave won’t do it. Labour MPs have to now either b

SystemSystem Posts: 12,265
edited August 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One more heave won’t do it. Labour MPs have to now either back Corbyn or split

If last night’s YouGov Labour leadership poll proves accurate, then Jeremy Corbyn will win with an even bigger mandate than last year. I’ve always had the hunch the Labour rebels had a one more heave approach with Corbyn, reduce his mandate this year, to soften him to be toppled in a future leadership contest.

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Comments

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    I say, another first pour moi?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296
    Second like Smith.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    Third like the LibDems
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    The people which were barred from voting this time due to the cut off should be allowed to be part of the membership for any future elections shouldn't they? So it's now or never to ge rid of Corbyn.

    Oh dear, oh dear oh dear.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Jonathan Easley of "The Hill" looks at Trump narrowing Clinton's national lead whilst still struggling to find a path in the EC.

    The article confirms as I've indicated on PB that for The Donald it's all of FOP or bust - Florida .. Ohio .. Pennsylvania.

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/293882-polls-tighten-in-presidential-race
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    JohnO said:

    I say, another first pour moi?

    DQ for use of French language on a TSE thread.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Not a cult

    "Not included in the manifesto document is Jeremy’s Volunteer Toolkit – a website set up for his supporters “to help make Jeremy Corbyn the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom”.

    Among the ridiculous links available are Jeremoji, where people can make Corbyn and Labour Party emojis, and Jerememe Corbyn, where people can submit their own Corbyn memes."

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1696459/jeremy-corbyn-comes-up-with-nonsense-online-strategy-dreamed-up-by-cyber-communist/
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    edited August 2016
    If I were a 'moderate' Labour MP in a safe seat, I'd now keep my head down, do nothing overtly disloyal, and pray, oh, how I would pray, for a crushing defeat in 2020 (but my own little fiefdom somehow to be spared the carnage).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    On-topic: I agree with the central premise of the thread. Indeed, said it several times over the last year.

    They should split. They won't. [That said, I thought they'd bottle any real challenge and they did finally put up a rival to Corbyn, albeit a rubbish one].

    FPT: According to Twitter, there's been a stabbing by a Dave in Toulouse. Not on the BBC, as yet [that I can see].

    Ironically, this call for more protection for mothers [making it harder to get rid of them during/after pregnancy] will probably have the impact of making employers, especially smaller ones, less likely to hire women:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37222674

    The more rights mothers get, the more onerous the burden on a business, the more reluctant they'll be to hire women.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    edited August 2016
    Miss Plato, I've been trying to get jeremiad to make a comeback. It means, quoting from Google: "a long, mournful complaint or lamentation; a list of woes."

    Edited extra bit: if Labour's woe were a Greek tragedy, it'd be called The Jeremiad.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    The sad thing is this hopeless position for the opposition was predicted by people like SO in the hours after Corbyn's election. He identified that it was about party consolidation and protest rather than winning in elections. Why can so few on the left see this?
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    I don't think they'll have the gonads to split. Most Labour MPs seem utterly Burnhamesque in their levels of pantywaist big-girl's-blouse wishywashyness. Labour is mummy. They don't want to have to grow up and head out into the big bad world. The big bad world doesn't like them. But then nor does mummy anymore. Ain't life a bitch?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    JohnO said:

    If I were a 'moderate' Labour MP in a safe seat, I'd now keep my head down, do nothing overtly disloyal, and pray, oh, how I would pray, for a crushing defeat in 2020 (but my own little fiefdom somehow to be spared the carnage).

    Or look for a cushy job paying the same/similar wages...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    I disagree. The voting system precludes a positive split. It takes a hell of a lot to deselect an MP and changing the rules to make it easier is going to be very time-consuming. But if mass deselections do happen before the next general election, Corbyn will create the new official opposition. That may be the way forward.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    tlg86 said:

    Second like Smith.

    You think he'll do that well?

    :)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,169
    FPT but relevant to this one;

    Anyway, let's take the classic example of my own seat - Cannock. Around 100,000 inhabitants, 90% urban, ex-coal mining, public sector employment at roughly 10% at a guess, the rest in skilled/semi skilled light industry or retail. One or two wealthy pockets but mostly quite poor. House prices are low and so is immigration. Has voted Labour 1945-70 and again 1992-2010 (possibly with one other spell in between).

    The workers are simply not interested in Corbyn. They even dislike him. They actually expressed interest in Miliband, but they were turned off in the election by the fact that the Labour candidate was a certifiable lunatic who thought the way to win an election in Mid-Staffordshire was to campaign on Labour's record on the NHS.

    With rare exceptions the public sector are increasingly embarrassed by Corbyn's antics, and study their coffee mugs when people talk about him. He sometimes makes good points, they mumble, but...

    Which leaves the prospect that Labour will come third if UKIP pick the candidate who spent half his time railing against the iniquities of the EU and half his time fighting to save the disabled children's playground.

    Now Cannock is typical of many seats in the WM or even the north. It is the type of seat that Labour have got to win to take power, and challenge in to remain relevant. But here, Corbyn's leadership is causing them to disintegrate.

    We've established Labour are writing off the south despite there being many winnable seats there. They are losing ground in the Midlands. If they are struggling in Cannock, I have no doubt they will struggle in the semi-rural north. Which raises the question - where and what can they win under Corbyn?

    And that is why, whatever Smith's faults and inadequacies, it is desperately important that he should win, even if he then has to resign later in favour of someone better.

    And to add to that - therefore this time there is a merit in a split. Because it could hardly make things worse but it might just conceivably salvage something.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited August 2016
    OT: A rather Eeyore-ish parliamentary briefing note on Brexit, redeemed by some useful facts and figures. Yummy.

    http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7213/CBP-7213.pdf
  • eekeek Posts: 28,797
    JohnO said:

    If I were a 'moderate' Labour MP in a safe seat, I'd now keep my head down, do nothing overtly disloyal, and pray, oh, how I would pray, for a crushing defeat in 2020 (but my own little fiefdom somehow to be spared the carnage).

    That argument is fine were it not for the boundary reviews where few MPs are going to have untouched seats and every constituency is going to have multiple plausible candidates all trying to be the Labour candidate...

    Everything is perfectly timed for Momentum to take over whats left of the party in 2020...
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    Slackbladder said:

    JohnO said:

    If I were a 'moderate' Labour MP in a safe seat, I'd now keep my head down, do nothing overtly disloyal, and pray, oh, how I would pray, for a crushing defeat in 2020 (but my own little fiefdom somehow to be spared the carnage).

    Or look for a cushy job paying the same/similar wages...
    That could be Plan B for some but we need enough of them to at least try and (eventually) get their party back post the apocalypse.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    JohnO said:

    If I were a 'moderate' Labour MP in a safe seat, I'd now keep my head down, do nothing overtly disloyal, and pray, oh, how I would pray, for a crushing defeat in 2020 (but my own little fiefdom somehow to be spared the carnage).

    I'd venture to suggest no prayers are required for Corbyn to go down to a crushing defeat. Only the scale of the cataclysm is open for debate.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    ydoethur said:

    FPT but relevant to this one;

    Anyway, let's take the classic example of my own seat - Cannock. Around 100,000 inhabitants, 90% urban, ex-coal mining, public sector employment at roughly 10% at a guess, the rest in skilled/semi skilled light industry or retail. One or two wealthy pockets but mostly quite poor. House prices are low and so is immigration. Has voted Labour 1945-70 and again 1992-2010 (possibly with one other spell in between).

    The workers are simply not interested in Corbyn. They even dislike him. They actually expressed interest in Miliband, but they were turned off in the election by the fact that the Labour candidate was a certifiable lunatic who thought the way to win an election in Mid-Staffordshire was to campaign on Labour's record on the NHS.

    With rare exceptions the public sector are increasingly embarrassed by Corbyn's antics, and study their coffee mugs when people talk about him. He sometimes makes good points, they mumble, but...

    Which leaves the prospect that Labour will come third if UKIP pick the candidate who spent half his time railing against the iniquities of the EU and half his time fighting to save the disabled children's playground.

    Now Cannock is typical of many seats in the WM or even the north. It is the type of seat that Labour have got to win to take power, and challenge in to remain relevant. But here, Corbyn's leadership is causing them to disintegrate.

    We've established Labour are writing off the south despite there being many winnable seats there. They are losing ground in the Midlands. If they are struggling in Cannock, I have no doubt they will struggle in the semi-rural north. Which raises the question - where and what can they win under Corbyn?

    And that is why, whatever Smith's faults and inadequacies, it is desperately important that he should win, even if he then has to resign later in favour of someone better.

    And to add to that - therefore this time there is a merit in a split. Because it could hardly make things worse but it might just conceivably salvage something.

    Splitting might actually be the step back towards flirting with the idea of power that Labour need.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,169
    JackW said:

    JohnO said:

    If I were a 'moderate' Labour MP in a safe seat, I'd now keep my head down, do nothing overtly disloyal, and pray, oh, how I would pray, for a crushing defeat in 2020 (but my own little fiefdom somehow to be spared the carnage).

    I'd venture to suggest no prayers are required for Corbyn to go down to a crushing defeat. Only the scale of the cataclysm is open for debate.
    Divine intervention might save Labour from catastrophe. Indeed, it looks as if it is the only thing that could.

    But however loathsome the human being, it is not good for the soul to actively pray for somebody's death.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Patrick said:

    I don't think they'll have the gonads to split. Most Labour MPs seem utterly Burnhamesque in their levels of pantywaist big-girl's-blouse wishywashyness. Labour is mummy. They don't want to have to grow up and head out into the big bad world. The big bad world doesn't like them. But then nor does mummy anymore. Ain't life a bitch?

    Labour is the church of england. splitting is founding the mormons and wandering around looking for utah
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    The split between the pre May 2015 membership and the subsequent joiners is actually even starker than this graphic makes out. YouGov excluded pre 2015 Labour members who have since left. Include them and Corbyn would be further behind still with this group.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited August 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    Not a cult

    Might I suggest that for the last word your choice of the third letter is erroneous ?!?

  • agingjbagingjb Posts: 76
    Choices for a discontented Labour MP:

    Do nothing
    Resign the whip and continue as an independent
    Help to form a new party
    Join UKIP
    Join the Greens
    Take the SNP whip
    Join the Tories
    Join the Lib Dems.

    (roughly, I think, in that order of probability)
  • glwglw Posts: 10,018
    Mortimer said:

    The sad thing is this hopeless position for the opposition was predicted by people like SO in the hours after Corbyn's election. He identified that it was about party consolidation and protest rather than winning in elections. Why can so few on the left see this?

    People on here were pointing out the danger of supporters being able to vote as soon as it became clear that Miliband was off. Not many thought Corbyn would win, but he did, or that he would last, but he did, or that he would be able to stand again, but he has. Now it looks like Corbyn will add reelection to the list.

    Basically everything that could have gone wrong for Labour has gone wrong, and the lesson is — ignore the warnings of PB Tories at your peril, they are always right. ;)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. JB, I largely agree with your probability ranking, but why put the Lib Dems so low?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Mortimer said:

    The sad thing is this hopeless position for the opposition was predicted by people like SO in the hours after Corbyn's election. He identified that it was about party consolidation and protest rather than winning in elections. Why can so few on the left see this?

    Two reasons:
    1) They don't care. They're only interested in talking about the things they want to talk about about, sitting around a campfire and singing kum-by-ya
    2) They don't want to engage with voters which don't share their views, and don't want to compromise to get their votes.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Plato, I've been trying to get jeremiad to make a comeback. It means, quoting from Google: "a long, mournful complaint or lamentation; a list of woes."

    Edited extra bit: if Labour's woe were a Greek tragedy, it'd be called The Jeremiad.

    :lol:
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    The Labour party membership is unrecognisable from only a year ago, if Corbyn wins, as is likely imho, the PLP and NEC rule book will also be changed beyond recognition from what it is today. - Labour’s travails remind me of Benjamin Franklin’s ditty ‘For the want of a nail’ with the party lost to an unelectable far left all for the want of a big tent. – Oh dear Ma Beckett, what have you done?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    They can only split if the numbers are there for them to become the official opposition party and relegate old Labour to third party status. That will give the new party enough media and press time to build up over 4 years for the next election. If only a few split off then it won't be worth it and the people who are being threatened with reselection may as well stand down and say they are going to seek a life outside of politics. There is no way back for Labour if Corbyn wins, at least not for 10-15 years by which point the centre left will be ready for another Blair type of figure.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    When Corbyn wins the leadership again he or McDonnell have a mandate to lead their party into a general election. If, as is most likely, they lose that election their brand will clearly have failed to win the electorate over and a new leadership challenge should be made. If Corbyn or McDonnell are re-elected again then a new SDP style party will have to be formed with the LDs and pressing for PR. That case may become stronger if May avoids hard BREXIT and UKIP remains a potent political force
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    FPT:
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    rottenborough said:

    Interesting little fact from Andrew Roberts in todays DT:

    "today there are more people who have walked on the Moon than there are Labour MPs in the East, South-East and South-West of England"

    Only true if you exclude London, which you really shouldn't to make that particular point. Labour wins in cities and there are few cities in those areas.
    Cambridge, Norwich, Colchester, Reading, Maidstone, Canterbury, Brighton, Bedford, Bristol, Plymouth, Southampton, Exeter, Swindon, Chichester, Oxford, Gloucester...

    These are all places where Labour should be winning. But they are doing so in less than half of them. It is not a good record.
    Chichester and Maidstone did not even vote for Blair but otherwise right as he won the rest
    Chichester was Liberal Democrat on the back of tactical voting, as I recall (although I haven't checked).

    Maidstone puzzles me. Why does it not return Labour MPs when Canterbury does?

    Edit - I had thought Canterbury went red in 97, but I'm told upthread I was wrong. Again, why is it not a seat where Labour are challenging? On the surface it looks like an ideal spot - two universities and a biggish mobile population.
    The urban city itself is pretty small, so the surrounding villages have a bigger influence on the constituency than you might expect.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. StClare, Beckett deserves censure, but so do many others. Not least Khan. [Not impressed with his burkini good, bikini bad approach either].
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    All the Left in the Labour party are doing is what has been done to them by the Right.

    What is wrong with a cult? Wasn't Blair a cult (think of the absurd hero-worshipping of Blair in his first term) ?

    What is wrong with "minders" imposing your views on the party? Didn't thugs escort an 82-year old out of the Labour Party conference and then have him arrested under terrorism legislation under Blair's regime? Didn't Blair's enforcers (at the very least) contribute to the suicide of David Kelly?

    As in so many things. Jeremy is a well-meaning amateur. Blair is the real pro.

    Jeremy needs to take a leaf or two out of Blair's book.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    edited August 2016
    Patrick said:

    I don't think they'll have the gonads to split. Most Labour MPs seem utterly Burnhamesque in their levels of pantywaist big-girl's-blouse wishywashyness. Labour is mummy. They don't want to have to grow up and head out into the big bad world. The big bad world doesn't like them. But then nor does mummy anymore. Ain't life a bitch?

    It has become fairly clear that the MPs haven't had a clue from the beginning; what we might initially have mistaken for a strategy and worked out plan was actually mostly emotional reaction. They have ended up putting forward Smith on precisely the same policy platform as Corbyn (which is a long way from their own, such as it is) but with more professionalism, competence and leadership, despite none of these three qualities having been evident in either his campaign or the MPs' rebellion.

    So in that sense anything is possible, depending on what their emotional response to failure and rejection might be? Assuming YouGov is right and Brind just is mendacious ramping, of course.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,169
    edited August 2016
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Plato, I've been trying to get jeremiad to make a comeback. It means, quoting from Google: "a long, mournful complaint or lamentation; a list of woes."

    Edited extra bit: if Labour's woe were a Greek tragedy, it'd be called The Jeremiad.


    And if it were Hebrew, the Parliamentary party's complaints would be called the Lamentions of Jeremiah?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Guido
    Corbyn is going to win in all categories of member #LabourLeadership https://t.co/ASi9Amcy5n https://t.co/ubdEXlPswZ
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,169
    agingjb said:

    Choices for a discontented Labour MP:

    Do nothing
    Resign the whip and continue as an independent
    Help to form a new party
    Join UKIP
    Join the Greens
    Take the SNP whip
    Join the Tories
    Join the Lib Dems.

    (roughly, I think, in that order of probability)

    Surely the PLP would be more likely to join the LDs than UKIP or the Tories? They would certainly have more policy ground in common.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,840
    edited August 2016
    They won't do either definitively. They have amply demonstrated that they are too emotionally invested in the Labour brand to leave willingly, searching for ways to split without splitting, to grumble when not retelling. They cannot back Corbyn too much, it makes no sense as their concerns at his competence have no gone away even if he wins in a landslide, but they will surely mostly go quiet for a time at least rather than split. The only question is how aggressively Corbyn and co go after them. A slower method of easing them out would seem best, as the more they cling on to the idea the party is still a place for them and refuse to go, the less trouble the creeping ease out will cause.
    Jonathan said:

    rottenborough said:

    Interesting little fact from Andrew Roberts in todays DT:

    "today there are more people who have walked on the Moon than there are Labour MPs in the East, South-East and South-West of England"

    Only true if you exclude London, which you really shouldn't to make that particular point. Labour wins in cities and there are few cities in those areas.
    It is perfectly normal for all sorts of measures for people to use South (excl London - it's counted as a separate region for previous devolved functions and now administrative and statistical purposes along with the other regions. Sure it's used for a political point as here (although surely Labour have won plenty outside the cities in the South, excluding London, before so why is 'labour win in cities' an excuse) but you see it all the time in a non-political fashion. For good reason, as statistically if it were included in the 'South' it would give a skewed picture.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,169
    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    rottenborough said:

    Interesting little fact from Andrew Roberts in todays DT:

    "today there are more people who have walked on the Moon than there are Labour MPs in the East, South-East and South-West of England"

    Only true if you exclude London, which you really shouldn't to make that particular point. Labour wins in cities and there are few cities in those areas.
    Cambridge, Norwich, Colchester, Reading, Maidstone, Canterbury, Brighton, Bedford, Bristol, Plymouth, Southampton, Exeter, Swindon, Chichester, Oxford, Gloucester...

    These are all places where Labour should be winning. But they are doing so in less than half of them. It is not a good record.
    Chichester and Maidstone did not even vote for Blair but otherwise right as he won the rest
    Chichester was Liberal Democrat on the back of tactical voting, as I recall (although I haven't checked).

    Maidstone puzzles me. Why does it not return Labour MPs when Canterbury does?

    Edit - I had thought Canterbury went red in 97, but I'm told upthread I was wrong. Again, why is it not a seat where Labour are challenging? On the surface it looks like an ideal spot - two universities and a biggish mobile population.
    The urban city itself is pretty small, so the surrounding villages have a bigger influence on the constituency than you might expect.
    That merely tells me that Labour have to make more effort to reach out beyond an urban core. But it's worth my remembering too I suppose that students don't vote.

    I wonder if they will gradually come to do that as they age or if electoral participation will drop off a cliff as the baby boomers die off?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    ydoethur said:

    FPT but relevant to this one;

    Anyway, let's take the classic example of my own seat - Cannock. Around 100,000 inhabitants, 90% urban, ex-coal mining, public sector employment at roughly 10% at a guess, the rest in skilled/semi skilled light industry or retail. One or two wealthy pockets but mostly quite poor. House prices are low and so is immigration. Has voted Labour 1945-70 and again 1992-2010 (possibly with one other spell in between).

    The workers are simply not interested in Corbyn. They even dislike him. They actually expressed interest in Miliband, but they were turned off in the election by the fact that the Labour candidate was a certifiable lunatic who thought the way to win an election in Mid-Staffordshire was to campaign on Labour's record on the NHS.

    With rare exceptions the public sector are increasingly embarrassed by Corbyn's antics, and study their coffee mugs when people talk about him. He sometimes makes good points, they mumble, but...

    Which leaves the prospect that Labour will come third if UKIP pick the candidate who spent half his time railing against the iniquities of the EU and half his time fighting to save the disabled children's playground.

    Now Cannock is typical of many seats in the WM or even the north. It is the type of seat that Labour have got to win to take power, and challenge in to remain relevant. But here, Corbyn's leadership is causing them to disintegrate.

    We've established Labour are writing off the south despite there being many winnable seats there. They are losing ground in the Midlands. If they are struggling in Cannock, I have no doubt they will struggle in the semi-rural north. Which raises the question - where and what can they win under Corbyn?

    And that is why, whatever Smith's faults and inadequacies, it is desperately important that he should win, even if he then has to resign later in favour of someone better.

    And to add to that - therefore this time there is a merit in a split. Because it could hardly make things worse but it might just conceivably salvage something.

    Corbyn will win inner London, Brighton, Manchester, Newcastle, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leicester, Bristol and Cardiff comfortably and get trounced everywhere else
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,169
    PlatoSaid said:

    Guido
    Corbyn is going to win in all categories of member #LabourLeadership https://t.co/ASi9Amcy5n https://t.co/ubdEXlPswZ

    No, no, we all know that Smith's member is unbeatable in size.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited August 2016
    I think the main point was made on the previous thread ( sorry can't remember who).

    The splitters would find it very difficult if not impossible to retain their Labour seats if another candidate branded Labour stood against them.

    However......

    Any MP that has not already declared themselves an apostle of the great messiah is a sitting duck for deselection and will lose their seat anyway whatever they now try to do or say. They are already identified of course as they well know

    Truly a damned either way.......no win situation......catch 22.

    "Should I stay or should I go?"

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oGIFublvDes
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    ydoethur said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    FPT:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    rottenborough said:

    Interesting little fact from Andrew Roberts in todays DT:

    "today there are more people who have walked on the Moon than there are Labour MPs in the East, South-East and South-West of England"

    Only true if you exclude London, which you really shouldn't to make that particular point. Labour wins in cities and there are few cities in those areas.
    Cambridge, Norwich, Colchester, Reading, Maidstone, Canterbury, Brighton, Bedford, Bristol, Plymouth, Southampton, Exeter, Swindon, Chichester, Oxford, Gloucester...

    These are all places where Labour should be winning. But they are doing so in less than half of them. It is not a good record.
    Chichester and Maidstone did not even vote for Blair but otherwise right as he won the rest
    Chichester was Liberal Democrat on the back of tactical voting, as I recall (although I haven't checked).

    Maidstone puzzles me. Why does it not return Labour MPs when Canterbury does?

    Edit - I had thought Canterbury went red in 97, but I'm told upthread I was wrong. Again, why is it not a seat where Labour are challenging? On the surface it looks like an ideal spot - two universities and a biggish mobile population.
    The urban city itself is pretty small, so the surrounding villages have a bigger influence on the constituency than you might expect.
    That merely tells me that Labour have to make more effort to reach out beyond an urban core. But it's worth my remembering too I suppose that students don't vote.

    I wonder if they will gradually come to do that as they age or if electoral participation will drop off a cliff as the baby boomers die off?
    You have to remember that people's priorities and needs change as they get older. Students do tend to be more left wing, but when they become taxpayers......
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    glw said:

    Mortimer said:

    The sad thing is this hopeless position for the opposition was predicted by people like SO in the hours after Corbyn's election. He identified that it was about party consolidation and protest rather than winning in elections. Why can so few on the left see this?

    People on here were pointing out the danger of supporters being able to vote as soon as it became clear that Miliband was off. Not many thought Corbyn would win, but he did, or that he would last, but he did, or that he would be able to stand again, but he has. Now it looks like Corbyn will add reelection to the list.

    Basically everything that could have gone wrong for Labour has gone wrong, and the lesson is — ignore the warnings of PB Tories at your peril, they are always right. ;)

    I am not a PB Tory. Not even an honorary one :-)

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,169
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT but relevant to this one;

    Anyway, let's take the classic example of my own seat - Cannock. Around 100,000 inhabitants, 90% urban, ex-coal mining, public sector employment at roughly 10% at a guess, the rest in skilled/semi skilled light industry or retail. One or two wealthy pockets but mostly quite poor. House prices are low and so is immigration. Has voted Labour 1945-70 and again 1992-2010 (possibly with one other spell in between).

    The workers are simply not interested in Corbyn. They even dislike him. They actually expressed interest in Miliband, but they were turned off in the election by the fact that the Labour candidate was a certifiable lunatic who thought the way to win an election in Mid-Staffordshire was to campaign on Labour's record on the NHS.

    With rare exceptions the public sector are increasingly embarrassed by Corbyn's antics, and study their coffee mugs when people talk about him. He sometimes makes good points, they mumble, but...

    Which leaves the prospect that Labour will come third if UKIP pick the candidate who spent half his time railing against the iniquities of the EU and half his time fighting to save the disabled children's playground.

    Now Cannock is typical of many seats in the WM or even the north. It is the type of seat that Labour have got to win to take power, and challenge in to remain relevant. But here, Corbyn's leadership is causing them to disintegrate.

    We've established Labour are writing off the south despite there being many winnable seats there. They are losing ground in the Midlands. If they are struggling in Cannock, I have no doubt they will struggle in the semi-rural north. Which raises the question - where and what can they win under Corbyn?

    And that is why, whatever Smith's faults and inadequacies, it is desperately important that he should win, even if he then has to resign later in favour of someone better.

    And to add to that - therefore this time there is a merit in a split. Because it could hardly make things worse but it might just conceivably salvage something.

    Corbyn will win inner London, Brighton, Manchester, Newcastle, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leicester, Bristol and Cardiff comfortably and get trounced everywhere else
    And on a clean sweep (which it wouldn't be) there are what, 150 seats in that list at a guess? That's a frighteningly narrow base.

    I think some Birmingham seats might be less safe for Corbyn Labour than they have been in the past, but that's anecdotal, don't trust for betting purposes.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,998
    SouthamObserver said:

    glw said:

    Mortimer said:

    The sad thing is this hopeless position for the opposition was predicted by people like SO in the hours after Corbyn's election. He identified that it was about party consolidation and protest rather than winning in elections. Why can so few on the left see this?

    People on here were pointing out the danger of supporters being able to vote as soon as it became clear that Miliband was off. Not many thought Corbyn would win, but he did, or that he would last, but he did, or that he would be able to stand again, but he has. Now it looks like Corbyn will add reelection to the list.

    Basically everything that could have gone wrong for Labour has gone wrong, and the lesson is — ignore the warnings of PB Tories at your peril, they are always right. ;)

    I am not a PB Tory. Not even an honorary one :-)

    You are according to Corbynistas.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    I think we will see and hear a lot more of Dan Jarvis after 24th September. He is very strong in his local constituency party and so not vulnerable.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,840
    agingjb said:

    Choices for a discontented Labour MP:

    Do nothing
    Resign the whip and continue as an independent
    Help to form a new party
    Join UKIP
    Join the Greens
    Take the SNP whip
    Join the Tories
    Join the Lib Dems.

    (roughly, I think, in that order of probability)

    'Take the SNP Whip'? Why not go whole hog and join the SNP? I think it would hilarious for the SNP to have seats in England, I'm sure they could win in some places.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT but relevant to this one;

    Anyway, let's take the classic example of my own seat - Cannock. Around 100,000 inhabitants, 90% urban, ex-coal mining, public sector employment at roughly 10% at a guess, the rest in skilled/semi skilled light industry or retail. One or two wealthy pockets but mostly quite poor. House prices are low and so is immigration. Has voted Labour 1945-70 and again 1992-2010 (possibly with one other spell in between).

    The workers are simply not interested in Corbyn. They even dislike him. They actually expressed interest in Miliband, but they were turned off in the election by the fact that the Labour candidate was a certifiable lunatic who thought the way to win an election in Mid-Staffordshire was to campaign on Labour's record on the NHS.

    With rare exceptions the public sector are increasingly embarrassed by Corbyn's antics, and study their coffee mugs when people talk about him. He sometimes makes good points, they mumble, but...

    Which leaves the prospect that Labour will come third if UKIP pick the candidate who spent half his time railing against the iniquities of the EU and half his time fighting to save the disabled children's playground.

    Now Cannock is typical of many seats in the WM or even the north. It is the type of seat that Labour have got to win to take power, and challenge in to remain relevant. But here, Corbyn's leadership is causing them to disintegrate.

    We've established Labour are writing off the south despite there being many winnable seats there. They are losing ground in the Midlands. If they are struggling in Cannock, I have no doubt they will struggle in the semi-rural north. Which raises the question - where and what can they win under Corbyn?

    And that is why, whatever Smith's faults and inadequacies, it is desperately important that he should win, even if he then has to resign later in favour of someone better.

    And to add to that - therefore this time there is a merit in a split. Because it could hardly make things worse but it might just conceivably salvage something.

    Corbyn will win inner London, Brighton, Manchester, Newcastle, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leicester, Bristol and Cardiff comfortably and get trounced everywhere else
    And on a clean sweep (which it wouldn't be) there are what, 150 seats in that list at a guess? That's a frighteningly narrow base.

    I think some Birmingham seats might be less safe for Corbyn Labour than they have been in the past, but that's anecdotal, don't trust for betting purposes.
    Brum Northfield Con gain.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,998
    Labour is led by a 67-year-old incompetent. The PLP still have one trump card: the far left's hold on Labour is tied to the physical person of Jeremy Corbyn. Were there to be a vacancy (a real one, not a challenge), they could still keep the likes of MacDonnell off the ballot. For some, that possibility will be enough to wait on events.

    However, if a split starts then it will have its own momentum. The maths in both the PLP and the membership (at local and national level) would tip further and further against the mainstream, eroding the position of those still committed to standing and holding out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT but relevant to this one;

    Anyway, let's take the classic example of my own seat - Cannock. Around 100,000 inhabitants, 90% urban, ex-coal mining, public sector employment at roughly 10% at a guess, the rest in skilled/semi skilled light industry or retail. One or two wealthy pockets but mostly quite poor. House prices are low and so is immigration. Has voted Labour 1945-70 and again 1992-2010 (possibly with one other spell in between).

    The workers are simply not interested in Corbyn. They even dislike him. They actually expressed interest in Miliband, but they were turned off in the election by the fact that the Labour candidate was a certifiable lunatic who thought the way to win an election in Mid-Staffordshire was to campaign on Labour's record on the NHS.

    With rare exceptions the public sector are increasingly embarrassed by Corbyn's antics, and study their coffee mugs when people talk about him. He sometimes makes good points, they mumble, but...

    Which leaves the prospect that Labour will come third if UKIP pick the candidate who spent half his time railing against the iniquities of the EU and half his time fighting to save the disabled children's playground.

    Now Cannock is typical of many seats in the WM or even the north. It is the type of seat that Labour have got to win to take power, and challenge in to remain relevant. But here, Corbyn's leadership is causing them to disintegrate.

    We've established Labour are writing off the south despite there being many winnable seats there. They are losing ground in the Midlands. If they are struggling in Cannock, I have no doubt they will struggle in the semi-rural north. Which raises the question - where and what can they win under Corbyn?

    And that is why, whatever Smith's faults and inadequacies, it is desperately important that he should win, even if he then has to resign later in favour of someone better.

    And to add to that - therefore this time there is a merit in a split. Because it could hardly make things worse but it might just conceivably salvage something.

    Corbyn will win inner London, Brighton, Manchester, Newcastle, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leicester, Bristol and Cardiff comfortably and get trounced everywhere else
    And on a clean sweep (which it wouldn't be) there are what, 150 seats in that list at a guess? That's a frighteningly narrow base.

    I think some Birmingham seats might be less safe for Corbyn Labour than they have been in the past, but that's anecdotal, don't trust for betting purposes.
    Agreed if UKIP remain a force in 2020 on a complete end to free movement ticket then Corbyn Labour is looking at less than 200 seats
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Observer, might be tricky for Jarvis, given he didn't stand last time because he wanted to spend some time with his young family.

    [Not to mention the Jezbollah aren't very nice to people they dislike. If you had young kids, would you put your head above the parapet?].
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Post-Brexit economic catastrophe intensifies;
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-houseprices-nationwide-idUSKCN1160Q2
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    SouthamObserver said:

    I think we will see and hear a lot more of Dan Jarvis after 24th September. He is very strong in his local constituency party and so not vulnerable.

    If he is strong in his local constituency, then his best bet is to follow JohnO's advice below.

    Keep quiet, and be ready to pick up the pieces in 2020. If Corbyn's win is as big as implied by YouGov, there is no point in wasting energy by picking an unwinnable fight right now.

    I don't think we'll here anything from Dan until after 2020. He is perfectly placed then.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    glw said:

    Mortimer said:

    The sad thing is this hopeless position for the opposition was predicted by people like SO in the hours after Corbyn's election. He identified that it was about party consolidation and protest rather than winning in elections. Why can so few on the left see this?

    People on here were pointing out the danger of supporters being able to vote as soon as it became clear that Miliband was off. Not many thought Corbyn would win, but he did, or that he would last, but he did, or that he would be able to stand again, but he has. Now it looks like Corbyn will add reelection to the list.

    Basically everything that could have gone wrong for Labour has gone wrong, and the lesson is — ignore the warnings of PB Tories at your peril, they are always right. ;)
    I didn't think he'd last this long - I thought basic etiquette would have him standing aside about 4 months ago, but he's as impervious as a limpet to every tactic. The PLP have been really crap - but I can understand why they thought collectively resigning from the ShadCab would work.

    Still, Paul Flynn has two jobs now - and wants to be handed string free money too.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT but relevant to this one;

    Anyway, let's take the classic example of my own seat - Cannock. Around 100,000 inhabitants, 90% urban, ex-coal mining, public sector employment at roughly 10% at a guess, the rest in skilled/semi skilled light industry or retail. One or two wealthy pockets but mostly quite poor. House prices are low and so is immigration. Has voted Labour 1945-70 and again 1992-2010 (possibly with one other spell in between).

    The workers are simply not interested in Corbyn. They even dislike him. They actually expressed interest in Miliband, but they were turned off in the election by the fact that the Labour candidate was a certifiable lunatic who thought the way to win an election in Mid-Staffordshire was to campaign on Labour's record on the NHS.

    With rare exceptions the public sector are increasingly embarrassed by Corbyn's antics, and study their coffee mugs when people talk about him. He sometimes makes good points, they mumble, but...

    Which leaves the prospect that Labour will come third if UKIP pick the candidate who spent half his time railing against the iniquities of the EU and half his time fighting to save the disabled children's playground.

    Now Cannock is typical of many seats in the WM or even the north. It is the type of seat that Labour have got to win to take power, and challenge in to remain relevant. But here, Corbyn's leadership is causing them to disintegrate.

    We've established Labour are writing off the south despite there being many winnable seats there. They are losing ground in the Midlands. If they are struggling in Cannock, I have no doubt they will struggle in the semi-rural north. Which raises the question - where and what can they win under Corbyn?

    And that is why, whatever Smith's faults and inadequacies, it is desperately important that he should win, even if he then has to resign later in favour of someone better.

    And to add to that - therefore this time there is a merit in a split. Because it could hardly make things worse but it might just conceivably salvage something.

    Corbyn will win inner London, Brighton, Manchester, Newcastle, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leicester, Bristol and Cardiff comfortably and get trounced everywhere else
    I am not so sure in Leicester. Leicester West is the most marginal, and could go Lib Dem or Tory, or Liz Kendall could hold for SDP2. Leicester South is quite a University seat so Corbyn territory. Leicester East is Keith Vaz, who could probably hold for SDP2.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    I see Samuel Tombs is out doom mongering again after the relatively positive consumer confidence data from GfK. I wonder whether the management at Pantheon will have a word with him soon...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Miss Plato, the PLP were demented when it came to putting Corbyn on the shortlist. Labour's delinquent rulebook has prevented them from actually toppling Jezbollah.

    They should split. They won't.

    Right now, the yellows and purples aren't in place to capitalise. But they might be in four or nine years.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,239
    The truth is that Smith does not offer a change of policy direction from Corbyn. He is committed to boosting the economy with higher public spending, especially on public sector wages, not that different on defence or public ownership.

    Blairism is dead as a political force inside Labour. Look at the embarrassing vote Liz Kendall got the last time. Even if (when) Corbyn loses badly the party is not going to swing back to being "intensely relaxed" about people getting wealthy, the introduction of private sector efficiencies into the provision of public services and reform of public sector services in the interests of the consumer rather than the producer. It just isn't.

    So people like Chuka, Kendall and even the Yvette Coopers have really got a choice. Either they make a more congenial home that does believe in such things or they find something else to do other than politics. My guess is that as with the previous generation destroyed by Brown they will find better things to do with their time.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    ydoethur said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Guido
    Corbyn is going to win in all categories of member #LabourLeadership https://t.co/ASi9Amcy5n https://t.co/ubdEXlPswZ

    No, no, we all know that Smith's member is unbeatable in size.
    Boom tish! :smiley:
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    National Tracker - LA Times

    Clinton 41.9 .. Trump 45.3

    http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    YBarddCwsc said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    I think we will see and hear a lot more of Dan Jarvis after 24th September. He is very strong in his local constituency party and so not vulnerable.

    If he is strong in his local constituency, then his best bet is to follow JohnO's advice below.

    Keep quiet, and be ready to pick up the pieces in 2020. If Corbyn's win is as big as implied by YouGov, there is no point in wasting energy by picking an unwinnable fight right now.

    I don't think we'll here anything from Dan until after 2020. He is perfectly placed then.

    No, he won't challenge, but he will become a lot more visible. He seems to have a direct line into the Mirror, which is a decent place to start for a Labour MP. He has played a very canny game up to now.

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,998
    YBarddCwsc said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    I think we will see and hear a lot more of Dan Jarvis after 24th September. He is very strong in his local constituency party and so not vulnerable.

    If he is strong in his local constituency, then his best bet is to follow JohnO's advice below.

    Keep quiet, and be ready to pick up the pieces in 2020. If Corbyn's win is as big as implied by YouGov, there is no point in wasting energy by picking an unwinnable fight right now.

    I don't think we'll here anything from Dan until after 2020. He is perfectly placed then.
    Perfectly placed apart from the membership. We are still thinking in terms of looking at Labour as a party playing by the normal rules of electoral politics, which at they moment they aren't. Perhaps by 2020 that will be different. On the other hand, perhaps by 2020, Labour's membership will look something like the Greens', writ large.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    MaxPB said:

    I see Samuel Tombs is out doom mongering again after the relatively positive consumer confidence data from GfK. I wonder whether the management at Pantheon will have a word with him soon...

    We've already had the perfect description of Sam today. He's a Jeremiah. Of course, as I have a vested interest, I do hope he's not secretly Cassandra as well.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    DavidL said:

    The truth is that Smith does not offer a change of policy direction from Corbyn. He is committed to boosting the economy with higher public spending, especially on public sector wages, not that different on defence or public ownership.

    Blairism is dead as a political force inside Labour. Look at the embarrassing vote Liz Kendall got the last time. Even if (when) Corbyn loses badly the party is not going to swing back to being "intensely relaxed" about people getting wealthy, the introduction of private sector efficiencies into the provision of public services and reform of public sector services in the interests of the consumer rather than the producer. It just isn't.

    So people like Chuka, Kendall and even the Yvette Coopers have really got a choice. Either they make a more congenial home that does believe in such things or they find something else to do other than politics. My guess is that as with the previous generation destroyed by Brown they will find better things to do with their time.

    A cushy job in the quangocracy beckons
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    JackW said:

    National Tracker - LA Times

    Clinton 41.9 .. Trump 45.3

    http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

    Well well
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,386
    edited August 2016
    No jokes about mental illness, or speculation about a mindset or ideology that might engender such crimes?

    'Teens arrested in Polish 'hate crime' murder probe'

    http://tinyurl.com/zuaav53

    Of course it's possible that one or more of them might actually be called Dave.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Plato, the PLP were demented when it came to putting Corbyn on the shortlist. Labour's delinquent rulebook has prevented them from actually toppling Jezbollah.

    They should split. They won't.

    Right now, the yellows and purples aren't in place to capitalise. But they might be in four or nine years.

    I honestly can't understand what they put in the water in LabourLand - a whole year+ of bizarro world. It's enormously entertaining to watch from the outside.

    Fervent Corbynistas manage to surprise us on an almost daily basis. People's Momentum complaining about Momentum Trumpton/getting them suspended on Twitter is typical butthurt.

    I'm glad to see that the Trumpton guys just restarted with another @. Old Holborn is on his 37th incarnation IIRC.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    SouthamObserver said:

    YBarddCwsc said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    I think we will see and hear a lot more of Dan Jarvis after 24th September. He is very strong in his local constituency party and so not vulnerable.

    If he is strong in his local constituency, then his best bet is to follow JohnO's advice below.

    Keep quiet, and be ready to pick up the pieces in 2020. If Corbyn's win is as big as implied by YouGov, there is no point in wasting energy by picking an unwinnable fight right now.

    I don't think we'll here anything from Dan until after 2020. He is perfectly placed then.

    No, he won't challenge, but he will become a lot more visible. He seems to have a direct line into the Mirror, which is a decent place to start for a Labour MP. He has played a very canny game up to now.

    A colleague of mine reckons that Kinnock is the man to watch. He was certainly visible during the Indyref campaign.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,169
    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    National Tracker - LA Times

    Clinton 41.9 .. Trump 45.3

    http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

    Well well
    Surely even Hilary Clinton can't blow this?* Not from where Trump started? Surely not?

    Her voters should be more motivated, for a start, while Trump is pitching to non-voters...

    *That wasn't a pun.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,450
    JackW said:

    National Tracker - LA Times

    Clinton 41.9 .. Trump 45.3

    http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

    Farage Effect? :smiley:
  • theakestheakes Posts: 942
    Re Corbyn: Has reality now kicked in with everyone.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Gin, I said it before: if Trump wins after Farage's speech, Farage will be the most significant Western politician of the year.

    First the Leave vote, then Trump.

    And yet he still can't get elected to Parliament.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    JackW said:

    National Tracker - LA Times

    Clinton 41.9 .. Trump 45.3

    http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

    The ads aren't working.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Apple customer letter

    http://www.apple.com/ie/customer-letter/
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,386
    SandyRentool said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    YBarddCwsc said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    I think we will see and hear a lot more of Dan Jarvis after 24th September. He is very strong in his local constituency party and so not vulnerable.

    If he is strong in his local constituency, then his best bet is to follow JohnO's advice below.

    Keep quiet, and be ready to pick up the pieces in 2020. If Corbyn's win is as big as implied by YouGov, there is no point in wasting energy by picking an unwinnable fight right now.

    I don't think we'll here anything from Dan until after 2020. He is perfectly placed then.

    No, he won't challenge, but he will become a lot more visible. He seems to have a direct line into the Mirror, which is a decent place to start for a Labour MP. He has played a very canny game up to now.

    A colleague of mine reckons that Kinnock is the man to watch. He was certainly visible during the Indyref campaign.

    Eh? In what sense?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Theuniondivvie said:

    No jokes about mental illness, or speculation about a mindset or ideology that might engender such crimes?

    'Teens arrested in Polish 'hate crime' murder probe'

    http://tinyurl.com/zuaav53

    Of course it's possible that one or more of them might actually be called Dave.

    It's a tragedy. This may well be a Brexit inspired murder, particularly as the suspects are so young (15/16) which is pretty much peak stupidity for teens.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Joe Watts
    The Traingate row actually made Corbyn more popular with members https://t.co/0FD4JmuRfN
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    John_M said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    No jokes about mental illness, or speculation about a mindset or ideology that might engender such crimes?

    'Teens arrested in Polish 'hate crime' murder probe'

    http://tinyurl.com/zuaav53

    Of course it's possible that one or more of them might actually be called Dave.

    It's a tragedy. This may well be a Brexit inspired murder, particularly as the suspects are so young (15/16) which is pretty much peak stupidity for teens.
    I find it hard to beleive that 15/16 are/were motivated by a political vote...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    National Tracker - LA Times

    Clinton 41.9 .. Trump 45.3

    http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

    Well well
    It's the most Trump friendly poll there is. 538 adjust it by +4 to Clinton.

    The standout number is Trump leading the 18-34 demographic by over 3 polnts .. :smile:
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited August 2016
    Slackbladder said:

    John_M said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    No jokes about mental illness, or speculation about a mindset or ideology that might engender such crimes?

    'Teens arrested in Polish 'hate crime' murder probe'

    http://tinyurl.com/zuaav53

    Of course it's possible that one or more of them might actually be called Dave.

    It's a tragedy. This may well be a Brexit inspired murder, particularly as the suspects are so young (15/16) which is pretty much peak stupidity for teens.
    I find it hard to beleive that 15/16 are/were motivated by a political vote...
    I can completely believe it. We have to face potentially unpleasant facts. People do make a valid point that seizing on positive things and ignoring the negatives is not a good look for any movement, including Brexiteers.

    I think the case for/against will hinge on the ethnicity of the suspects.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    George Eaton
    London often seen as a Corbynite heartland but he's 55-45 ahead of Smith there, compared to 63-37 in the north.
  • MontyHallMontyHall Posts: 226
    Theuniondivvie said:

    No jokes about mental illness, or speculation about a mindset or ideology that might engender such crimes?

    'Teens arrested in Polish 'hate crime' murder probe'

    http://tinyurl.com/zuaav53

    Of course it's possible that one or more of them might actually be called Dave.

    Isn't the difference (and the point) that this has been described as a hate crime?

    The report suggests it was an attack motivated by race hate or xenophobia, whereas those parodied on here (that you dislike?) are those attacks by muslims on non muslims that are made to look as if there were no racial/religious motivation
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    Starting to feel like squeaky bum time for Clinton.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Theuniondivvie said:

    No jokes about mental illness, or speculation about a mindset or ideology that might engender such crimes?

    'Teens arrested in Polish 'hate crime' murder probe'

    http://tinyurl.com/zuaav53

    Of course it's possible that one or more of them might actually be called Dave.

    Wait for the facts to emerge. You're prone to ejaculatio praecox.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,562
    MaxPB said:

    Starting to feel like squeaky bum time for Clinton.

    Hmm. I'll await some more state polling first. Especially Ohio.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Only Drudge and The Donald get excited about the LA Tracker .... and former PBers now enjoying an extended period on the naughty step.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    Theuniondivvie said:

    SandyRentool said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    YBarddCwsc said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    I think we will see and hear a lot more of Dan Jarvis after 24th September. He is very strong in his local constituency party and so not vulnerable.

    If he is strong in his local constituency, then his best bet is to follow JohnO's advice below.

    Keep quiet, and be ready to pick up the pieces in 2020. If Corbyn's win is as big as implied by YouGov, there is no point in wasting energy by picking an unwinnable fight right now.

    I don't think we'll here anything from Dan until after 2020. He is perfectly placed then.

    No, he won't challenge, but he will become a lot more visible. He seems to have a direct line into the Mirror, which is a decent place to start for a Labour MP. He has played a very canny game up to now.

    A colleague of mine reckons that Kinnock is the man to watch. He was certainly visible during the Indyref campaign.

    Eh? In what sense?
    I saw him on the news more than just about any other Labour Remainer.

    If I was a betting man, I might be tempted to put a few Euro on him as next Labour leader.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    JackW said:

    National Tracker - LA Times

    Clinton 41.9 .. Trump 45.3

    http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

    The ads aren't working.
    Hillary is a crap product using almost any yardstick. Trump offers something different - it's hopey-changy, but with a hard edge of jobs jobs jobs.

    His pitch to black voters is something I'm watching closely. It's such an intriguing angle/third rail stuff.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,998
    PlatoSaid said:

    George Eaton
    London often seen as a Corbynite heartland but he's 55-45 ahead of Smith there, compared to 63-37 in the north.

    Yes. There were proportionately more CLP nominations for Owen Smith from London.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Hall, quite.

    Staggering there hasn't been an instantaneous psychiatric evaluation.

    There's a risk this'll look like white people can commit 'hate' crime*, whereas Muslim murderers are mentally ill loners**. I hope the scum involved get the book thrown at them.

    *Hate crime is a stupid term.

    **There is, of course, a white-Muslim overlap.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    John_M said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    No jokes about mental illness, or speculation about a mindset or ideology that might engender such crimes?

    'Teens arrested in Polish 'hate crime' murder probe'

    http://tinyurl.com/zuaav53

    Of course it's possible that one or more of them might actually be called Dave.

    It's a tragedy. This may well be a Brexit inspired murder, particularly as the suspects are so young (15/16) which is pretty much peak stupidity for teens.
    What's going on with Jo Cox's old seat? It's as if it never happened - no move to call a by-election three months on.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296
    MontyHall said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    No jokes about mental illness, or speculation about a mindset or ideology that might engender such crimes?

    'Teens arrested in Polish 'hate crime' murder probe'

    http://tinyurl.com/zuaav53

    Of course it's possible that one or more of them might actually be called Dave.

    Isn't the difference (and the point) that this has been described as a hate crime?

    The report suggests it was an attack motivated by race hate or xenophobia, whereas those parodied on here (that you dislike?) are those attacks by muslims on non muslims that are made to look as if there were no racial/religious motivation
    There's also the assumption being made that the perpetrators are white.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    rottenborough said:

    MaxPB said:

    Starting to feel like squeaky bum time for Clinton.

    Hmm. I'll await some more state polling first. Especially Ohio.
    Just starting, not actually. The Reuters poll has shifted as well. The less Trump is on TV the more he recovers.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Miss Plato, Clinton's problem is that her support's lukewarm. Trump drives away a lot of votes but also has passionate support, so it's an interesting dynamic.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    JackW said:

    Only Drudge and The Donald get excited about the LA Tracker .... and former PBers now enjoying an extended period on the naughty step.

    Not just LA Times. There are a few that have been moving to Trump with the debates yet to come.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,386
    edited August 2016
    SandyRentool said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    SandyRentool said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    YBarddCwsc said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    I think we will see and hear a lot more of Dan Jarvis after 24th September. He is very strong in his local constituency party and so not vulnerable.

    If he is strong in his local constituency, then his best bet is to follow JohnO's advice below.

    Keep quiet, and be ready to pick up the pieces in 2020. If Corbyn's win is as big as implied by YouGov, there is no point in wasting energy by picking an unwinnable fight right now.

    I don't think we'll here anything from Dan until after 2020. He is perfectly placed then.

    No, he won't challenge, but he will become a lot more visible. He seems to have a direct line into the Mirror, which is a decent place to start for a Labour MP. He has played a very canny game up to now.

    A colleague of mine reckons that Kinnock is the man to watch. He was certainly visible during the Indyref campaign.

    Eh? In what sense?
    I saw him on the news more than just about any other Labour Remainer.

    If I was a betting man, I might be tempted to put a few Euro on him as next Labour leader.
    Ah, assumed you meant Scottish indyref.
This discussion has been closed.