" trade will continue in some form, as it always has since the days of the Celtic tribes. "
Excuse me! Trade with europe, and indeed beyond, was happening well before the celtic tribes.
How were you defining 'Celt', Mr Llama? I was defining it as a pre-Roman inhabitant of Western Europe.
There is of course some discussion about what came before that, if anything, but having read innumerable books on the subject that go into exhaustive and in my view pointless detail (I think the low point was somebody who asked 'woher komme diese Kelten' for no apparent reason other than to show off his knowledge of German) I just draw the line at 'Celts' and call everything else 'an argument'.
Doc, I think there is good evidence that England was trading with Europe and beyond as early as 2000BC, and maybe earlier. The Celts I think came later, an iron age culture., though one that survived into the Christian era
Of course, if you want to define anything pre-(Claudian)Roman invasion as celtic you are most certainly correct, if a little misguided.
If you want to put the start date there then your own point is fair enough. I have however seen those Bronze Age cultures included as Celts, and others argue that we shouldn't talk about 'Celts' at all because the concept is so difficult to define. That's why I went with 'pre-Roman' as something on which there is general agreement and beyond that, well, let's say they could be included but don't have to be.
OK: LDs gain NE Fife, Edinburgh West from the SNP, Cambridge from Labour (yes, Justin). Twickenham? Does that work?
Let's wait and see shall we? I seem to recall everyone predicting a LibDem hold in Cambridge in 2015.
Speaking as neither a LibDem nor Labour supporter in Cambridge, I would be amazed if our disappointingly invisible Labour member was returned next time. I expect a small LibDem recovery. Would've needed an Anne Campbell to hold it.
Rarefied creature that I am, I have always had a strict no-ink/pierced ears only dating rule. Yes, my middle name is 'Shallow', no I don't care. As my dating days are behind me, it's moot in any case.
Fantastic business opportunity in the next 5-10 years...tattoo removal.
Not getting it yet, but The Witcher 3 GOTY Edition (including base game and all DLC) is just £32 on Amazon, might be less elsewhere. Bargain for those into grimdark RPGs. I'll get it when the price falls a little more.
Rarefied creature that I am, I have always had a strict no-ink/pierced ears only dating rule. Yes, my middle name is 'Shallow', no I don't care. As my dating days are behind me, it's moot in any case.
I don't like tattoos. They're not my thing.
Having said that, I saw an interesting set of tats on the arm of a woman serving in a shop recently. It was a line of numbers up to 8, with each one crossed out except for the last.
It was the number of years she had survived since being diagnosed with terminal cancer. Each year on the day of diagnosis, she goes to a tattoo parlour, has a stroke put through the last number and a new one added.
I felt bad, as I had joked that it was the number of husbands she had had ...
Rarefied creature that I am, I have always had a strict no-ink/pierced ears only dating rule. Yes, my middle name is 'Shallow', no I don't care. As my dating days are behind me, it's moot in any case.
Fantastic business opportunity in the next 5-10 years...tattoo removal.
There's a program on Channel 4 called 'Tattoo Fixers' or somesuch: I caught it because it was on after Agents of Shield. Well worth a watch for pure WTFery.
What is that supposed to be based on? Certainly not recent polls!
Based on an 8% swing from Labour to the Tories which no poll has ever recorded. Even if you take the 2 most extreme values from the opinion polls it will still give you only half of that.
Talking tattoos / piercings...I went to a family fun night on a farm in Portland, Oregon a couple of years ago. All good wholesome fun for the whole family and I was literally the only adult male there without at least one arm totally "sleeved". Boy did I not feel hip.
Rarefied creature that I am, I have always had a strict no-ink/pierced ears only dating rule. Yes, my middle name is 'Shallow', no I don't care. As my dating days are behind me, it's moot in any case.
A few bits of body art are fine nowadays. A fair number of our staff have them, including some medical staff, and a good percentage of our nursing and reception staff.
Increasingly it is part of a female mid life crisis such as SamCam. Indeed when a Tory Prime Ministers wife has a tattoo it can hardly be seen as countercultural.
Discriminating against tattooed applicants withouut good reason would be discrimination against the WWC so beloved of PB Kippers and fellow travellers.
Rarefied creature that I am, I have always had a strict no-ink/pierced ears only dating rule. Yes, my middle name is 'Shallow', no I don't care. As my dating days are behind me, it's moot in any case.
I don't like tattoos. They're not my thing.
Having said that, I saw an interesting set of tats on the arm of a woman serving in a shop recently. It was a line of numbers up to 8, with each one crossed out except for the last.
It was the number of years she had survived since being diagnosed with terminal cancer. Each year on the day of diagnosis, she goes to a tattoo parlour, has a stroke put through the last number and a new one added.
I felt bad, as I had joked that it was the number of husbands she had had ...
Good article but I take issue with the idea that Bercow has any role to play. Under the Ministerial and Other Salaries Act 1975 the Leader of the Opposition is the leader in the Commons of the largest party opposing the government. Bercow only has a role if there is any doubt as to which is the largest opposition party or who is the leader of that party. Assuming Corbyn is re-elected there will be no doubt that he is Labour's leader. Bercow cannot override the Labour Party's constitution. And, unless Labour splits, there is no doubt as to which is the largest opposition party.
The legislation certainly does not allow Bercow to intervene on the basis that the Leader of the Opposition is incompetent.
Rarefied creature that I am, I have always had a strict no-ink/pierced ears only dating rule. Yes, my middle name is 'Shallow', no I don't care. As my dating days are behind me, it's moot in any case.
A few bits of body art are fine nowadays. A fair number of our staff have them, including some medical staff, and a good percentage of our nursing and reception staff.
Increasingly it is part of a female mid life crisis such as SamCam. Indeed when a Tory Prime Ministers wife has a tattoo it can hardly be seen as countercultural.
Discriminating against tattooed applicants withouut good reason would be discrimination against the WWC so beloved of PB Kippers and fellw travellers.
A tattoo on the face for a police officer would be good reason. Arms, legs, torsos, no problems, but seriously, the face? In a public facing role?
" trade will continue in some form, as it always has since the days of the Celtic tribes. "
Excuse me! Trade with europe, and indeed beyond, was happening well before the celtic tribes.
How were you defining 'Celt', Mr Llama? I was defining it as a pre-Roman inhabitant of Western Europe.
There is of course some discussion about what came before that, if anything, but having read innumerable books on the subject that go into exhaustive and in my view pointless detail (I think the low point was somebody who asked 'woher komme diese Kelten' for no apparent reason other than to show off his knowledge of German) I just draw the line at 'Celts' and call everything else 'an argument'.
Doc, I think there is good evidence that England was trading with Europe and beyond as early as 2000BC, and maybe earlier. The Celts I think came later, an iron age culture., though one that survived into the Christian era
Of course, if you want to define anything pre-(Claudian)Roman invasion as celtic you are most certainly correct, if a little misguided.
If you want to put the start date there then your own point is fair enough. I have however seen those Bronze Age cultures included as Celts, and others argue that we shouldn't talk about 'Celts' at all because the concept is so difficult to define. That's why I went with 'pre-Roman' as something on which there is general agreement and beyond that, well, let's say they could be included but don't have to be.
Fair go, Doc. I must say that having started off as something of a medievalist (14th century for preference) the older I get the more I am attracted to pre-Roman "English" history. The story of the Land before written history started and its continuity (settlements, paths and so forth) right up to the present day I find fascinating.
Rarefied creature that I am, I have always had a strict no-ink/pierced ears only dating rule. Yes, my middle name is 'Shallow', no I don't care. As my dating days are behind me, it's moot in any case.
A few bits of body art are fine nowadays. A fair number of our staff have them, including some medical staff, and a good percentage of our nursing and reception staff.
Increasingly it is part of a female mid life crisis such as SamCam. Indeed when a Tory Prime Ministers wife has a tattoo it can hardly be seen as countercultural.
Discriminating against tattooed applicants withouut good reason would be discrimination against the WWC so beloved of PB Kippers and fellw travellers.
Yes, but they are taking about face/neck tattoos. Unless you were feeling quite perverted you probably wouldn't notice a tattoo on a police officer's foot!
Rarefied creature that I am, I have always had a strict no-ink/pierced ears only dating rule. Yes, my middle name is 'Shallow', no I don't care. As my dating days are behind me, it's moot in any case.
Fantastic business opportunity in the next 5-10 years...tattoo removal.
There's a program on Channel 4 called 'Tattoo Fixers' or somesuch: I caught it because it was on after Agents of Shield. Well worth a watch for pure WTFery.
Ink Masters and Tattoo Nightmares are superb on SpikeTV - they were the concept Tattoo Fixers copied in a scummy E4 way. The crappy executions on Tattoo Fixers makes me wince - the USA judges would murder them in seconds.
I think Southam is being a bit optimistic. And it hardly speaks well of the uselessness of Labour MPs that the answer should be John Bercow. I get it. I understand why they don't want to split but a coup is hardly going to heal divisions within the party. It would surely mean mass deselections of candidates. Are they prepared to take the leap.
What is that supposed to be based on? Certainly not recent polls!
Historical movements between now and election day of May 2020 coupled with the substantial lead May enjoys over Corbyn and the Tory lead on the economy.
These are the people who in November 2013 accurately forecast a small Tory majority at GE 2015 based on those precedents.
Very few oppositions do better at a GE than they do at this point in the electoral cycle.
I think Southam is being a bit optimistic. And it hardly speaks well of the uselessness of Labour MPs that the answer should be John Bercow. I get it. I understand why they don't want to split but a coup is hardly going to heal divisions within the party. It would surely mean mass deselections of candidates. Are they prepared to take the leap.
What is that supposed to be based on? Certainly not recent polls!
Historical movements between now and election day of May 2020 coupled with the substantial lead May enjoys over Corbyn and the Tory lead on the economy.
These are the people who in November 2013 accurately forecast a small Tory majority at GE 2015 based on those precedents.
Very few oppositions do better at a GE than they do at this point in the electoral cycle.
What is that supposed to be based on? Certainly not recent polls!
Based on an 8% swing from Labour to the Tories which no poll has ever recorded. Even if you take the 2 most extreme values from the opinion polls it will still give you only half of that.
So it assumes a Tory lead of circa 23! Very likely I am sure.
What is that supposed to be based on? Certainly not recent polls!
Based on an 8% swing from Labour to the Tories which no poll has ever recorded. Even if you take the 2 most extreme values from the opinion polls it will still give you only half of that.
So it assumes a Tory lead of circa 23! Very likely I am sure.
''That's before the boundary changes which will probably cost Labour 25 to 30 seats.''
What, I wonder, are the main reasons that labour constituencies tend to shrink, whilst tory ones tend to get larger???
Inner cities tend to become depopulated due to bad living standards, add in that Cameron changed the way people register to reduce the number of voters in Labour seats during the boundary commission examination.
Of course payback came in the referendum when Cameron's entire position was dependent on the same people he tried to depress.
''That's before the boundary changes which will probably cost Labour 25 to 30 seats.''
What, I wonder, are the main reasons that labour constituencies tend to shrink, whilst tory ones tend to get larger???
Inner cities tend to become depopulated due to bad living standards, add in that Cameron changed the way people register to reduce the number of voters in Labour seats during the boundary commission examination.
Of course payback came in the referendum when Cameron's entire position was dependent on the same people he tried to depress.
Weren't those on the register contacted seven, eight, or even nine times before they were removed? I think it's safe to assume they don't exist at that address any more.
''That's before the boundary changes which will probably cost Labour 25 to 30 seats.''
What, I wonder, are the main reasons that labour constituencies tend to shrink, whilst tory ones tend to get larger???
Inner cities tend to become depopulated due to bad living standards, add in that Cameron changed the way people register to reduce the number of voters in Labour seats during the boundary commission examination.
Of course payback came in the referendum when Cameron's entire position was dependent on the same people he tried to depress.
Weren't those on the register contacted seven, eight, or even nine times before they were removed? I think it's safe to assume they don't exist at that address any more.
Even Cameron's campaign recognized his voter suppression was a problem.
That's why they frantically tried to re-register as many Labour voters they could by referendum day, an extra 2 million registered but it wasn't enough to save Cameron.
If the boundary commission based it on the electoral register today, it would have been different.
Rarefied creature that I am, I have always had a strict no-ink/pierced ears only dating rule. Yes, my middle name is 'Shallow', no I don't care. As my dating days are behind me, it's moot in any case.
Fantastic business opportunity in the next 5-10 years...tattoo removal.
There's a program on Channel 4 called 'Tattoo Fixers' or somesuch: I caught it because it was on after Agents of Shield. Well worth a watch for pure WTFery.
Ink Masters and Tattoo Nightmares are superb on SpikeTV - they were the concept Tattoo Fixers copied in a scummy E4 way. The crappy executions on Tattoo Fixers makes me wince - the USA judges would murder them in seconds.
There was an interesting bit on this on 5 Live this AM with a dermatologist. He reckoned that high quality tattoos were far more problematic to remove as they involve so many pigments,:and often couldn't be removed at all. Cheap monochrome ones with broad lines were ideal for Laser removal.
When I lived in NZ facial tattoos were fairly common, and not just amongst polynesians, and not just in traditional forms. Indeed I believe Tattooing only became fashionable amongst sailors following exploration of polynesia.
But there is a serious point. If we want to reduce social exclusion, and improve the position of the WWC then we have to accept that tattos will be seen on doctors, lawyers and policemen.
''That's before the boundary changes which will probably cost Labour 25 to 30 seats.''
What, I wonder, are the main reasons that labour constituencies tend to shrink, whilst tory ones tend to get larger???
Inner cities tend to become depopulated due to bad living standards, add in that Cameron changed the way people register to reduce the number of voters in Labour seats during the boundary commission examination.
Of course payback came in the referendum when Cameron's entire position was dependent on the same people he tried to depress.
Weren't those on the register contacted seven, eight, or even nine times before they were removed? I think it's safe to assume they don't exist at that address any more.
Even Cameron's campaign recognized his voter suppression was a problem.
That's why they frantically tried to re-register as many Labour voters they could by referendum day, an extra 2 million registered but it wasn't enough to save Cameron.
Any evidence to suggest those were people who were on the old register and were removed, or were they people who had never registered before? Also weren't a large fraction of those people already registered who did not need to register?
Rarefied creature that I am, I have always had a strict no-ink/pierced ears only dating rule. Yes, my middle name is 'Shallow', no I don't care. As my dating days are behind me, it's moot in any case.
A few bits of body art are fine nowadays. A fair number of our staff have them, including some medical staff, and a good percentage of our nursing and reception staff.
Increasingly it is part of a female mid life crisis such as SamCam. Indeed when a Tory Prime Ministers wife has a tattoo it can hardly be seen as countercultural.
Discriminating against tattooed applicants withouut good reason would be discrimination against the WWC so beloved of PB Kippers and fellow travellers.
Keep a close eye on the haloperidol, temazepam and OxyContin, Doc.
What is that supposed to be based on? Certainly not recent polls!
Historical movements between now and election day of May 2020 coupled with the substantial lead May enjoys over Corbyn and the Tory lead on the economy.
These are the people who in November 2013 accurately forecast a small Tory majority at GE 2015 based on those precedents.
Very few oppositions do better at a GE than they do at this point in the electoral cycle.
Very few? Here are some examples -Labour in 1959 Parliament. Tories in Oct 1974 Parliament. Labour in 1987 Parliament.Tories in 1997 Parliament. Tories in 2001 Parliament.Tories in 2005 Parliament.
Again, why is Tristram Hunt a Labour MP ? And an MP for Stoke Central ?
Even if Hunt is the Labour candidate for Stoke in 2020 he might lose his seat despite having a majority of 5700, the man is absolutely detested there and for a good reason.
Again, why is Tristram Hunt a Labour MP ? And an MP for Stoke Central ?
Even if Hunt is the Labour candidate for Stoke in 2020 he might lose his seat despite having a majority of 5700, the man is absolutely detested there and for a good reason.
Maybe he means the top 1% in terms of competence? Surely nothing else.
What is that supposed to be based on? Certainly not recent polls!
Historical movements between now and election day of May 2020 coupled with the substantial lead May enjoys over Corbyn and the Tory lead on the economy.
These are the people who in November 2013 accurately forecast a small Tory majority at GE 2015 based on those precedents.
Very few oppositions do better at a GE than they do at this point in the electoral cycle.
Very few? Here are some examples -Labour in 1959 Parliament. Tories in Oct 1974 Parliament. Labour in 1987 Parliament.Tories in 1997 Parliament. Tories in 2001 Parliament.Tories in 2005 Parliament.
I wasn't clear, this is looking at weighted averages of polls and NESV.
Using UNS based seat predictor with Corbyn in charge of Labour is not going to work out well for predictions.
Add in recent times, polling at GEs have tended to overestimate Labour.
I feel a thread coming on....
Not in 2010 - 1983 or February 1974.
I do think that at some point the Tories will find themselves taken offguard by expecting the polls to overestimate Labour. Better to always let it be a happy surprise.
On a serious note, this is another example, that we really need some regulation in regards to companies encrypting personal data properly. That seems like proper "data protection" compared to some of the nonsense that it currently concerns.
What is that supposed to be based on? Certainly not recent polls!
Historical movements between now and election day of May 2020 coupled with the substantial lead May enjoys over Corbyn and the Tory lead on the economy.
These are the people who in November 2013 accurately forecast a small Tory majority at GE 2015 based on those precedents.
Very few oppositions do better at a GE than they do at this point in the electoral cycle.
Very few? Here are some examples -Labour in 1959 Parliament. Tories in Oct 1974 Parliament. Labour in 1987 Parliament.Tories in 1997 Parliament. Tories in 2001 Parliament.Tories in 2005 Parliament.
I wasn't clear, this is looking at weighted averages of polls and NESV.
I am not sure that changes anything. In each of the examples I referred to the Opposition performed better at the subsequent General Election than polls were suggesting at the 15/16 month stage of those Parliaments.
What is that supposed to be based on? Certainly not recent polls!
Historical movements between now and election day of May 2020 coupled with the substantial lead May enjoys over Corbyn and the Tory lead on the economy.
These are the people who in November 2013 accurately forecast a small Tory majority at GE 2015 based on those precedents.
Very few oppositions do better at a GE than they do at this point in the electoral cycle.
Very few? Here are some examples -Labour in 1959 Parliament. Tories in Oct 1974 Parliament. Labour in 1987 Parliament.Tories in 1997 Parliament. Tories in 2001 Parliament.Tories in 2005 Parliament.
If anyone in Sussex / North Essex this afternoon avoid the A12 at Colchester - nasty crash leaving a convertible on its roof London bound. Major congestion in area.
What is that supposed to be based on? Certainly not recent polls!
Historical movements between now and election day of May 2020 coupled with the substantial lead May enjoys over Corbyn and the Tory lead on the economy.
These are the people who in November 2013 accurately forecast a small Tory majority at GE 2015 based on those precedents.
Very few oppositions do better at a GE than they do at this point in the electoral cycle.
Very few? Here are some examples -Labour in 1959 Parliament. Tories in Oct 1974 Parliament. Labour in 1987 Parliament.Tories in 1997 Parliament. Tories in 2001 Parliament.Tories in 2005 Parliament.
I wasn't clear, this is looking at weighted averages of polls and NESV.
I am not sure that changes anything. In each of the examples I referred to the Opposition performed better at the subsequent General Election than polls were suggesting at the 15/16 month stage of those Parliaments.
What is that supposed to be based on? Certainly not recent polls!
Historical movements between now and election day of May 2020 coupled with the substantial lead May enjoys over Corbyn and the Tory lead on the economy.
These are the people who in November 2013 accurately forecast a small Tory majority at GE 2015 based on those precedents.
Very few oppositions do better at a GE than they do at this point in the electoral cycle.
Very few? Here are some examples -Labour in 1959 Parliament. Tories in Oct 1974 Parliament. Labour in 1987 Parliament.Tories in 1997 Parliament. Tories in 2001 Parliament.Tories in 2005 Parliament.
What are you basing this on?
Based on what polls were showing 15/16 months into those Parliaments compared with the outcome at the following General Election.
If anyone in Sussex / North Essex this afternoon avoid the A12 at Colchester - nasty crash leaving a convertible on its roof London bound. Major congestion in area.
What is that supposed to be based on? Certainly not recent polls!
Historical movements between now and election day of May 2020 coupled with the substantial lead May enjoys over Corbyn and the Tory lead on the economy.
These are the people who in November 2013 accurately forecast a small Tory majority at GE 2015 based on those precedents.
Very few oppositions do better at a GE than they do at this point in the electoral cycle.
Very few? Here are some examples -Labour in 1959 Parliament. Tories in Oct 1974 Parliament. Labour in 1987 Parliament.Tories in 1997 Parliament. Tories in 2001 Parliament.Tories in 2005 Parliament.
I wasn't clear, this is looking at weighted averages of polls and NESV.
I am not sure that changes anything. In each of the examples I referred to the Opposition performed better at the subsequent General Election than polls were suggesting at the 15/16 month stage of those Parliaments.
What are the figures in each case?
Most of this data can be found from UK Polling Report website.
My nowcast would be Con 350 Lab 205 Lib Dem 12 UKIP 3, Others 80 or thereabouts. My forecast would add about 10 to the Conservatives and knock 10 off Labour.
So, although Jo Swinson is very impressive, I doubt they'll be competitive. (I wouldn't be surprised if she was the candidate in O&S next time around.)
Back in the days I worked in Cupar North East Fife as it then was had a solid Lib Dem Council and of course Ming as the MP. Their roots are very deep in that area and they are very organised. Willie Rennie was a long way from starting from scratch. Still a very good result though.
Personally, I find Rennie an irritating waffler but a lot of people seem to like him and he had a very high profile as leader in the debates etc. Winning back the constituency will be dependent upon having the right candidate. More possible than likely I would say.
''Again, why is Tristram Hunt a Labour MP ? And an MP for Stoke Central ?''
Both are conundrums, I'll grant you.
Surely people with the opinions of Tristram Hunt should be candidates in rural Oxfordshire, not an inner city.
If Labour really want Hunt in the party he should be sent to Chipping Norton where he is in tune with the locals, instead of losing piles of votes in Stoke.
''I do think that at some point the Tories will find themselves taken offguard by expecting the polls to overestimate Labour. Better to always let it be a happy surprise.''
There hasn;t as yet been a real election where labour supporters have had cause to think 'Wow if we've lost x then....help!' There may not be one for some time.
What is that supposed to be based on? Certainly not recent polls!
Historical movements between now and election day of May 2020 coupled with the substantial lead May enjoys over Corbyn and the Tory lead on the economy.
These are the people who in November 2013 accurately forecast a small Tory majority at GE 2015 based on those precedents.
Very few oppositions do better at a GE than they do at this point in the electoral cycle.
Very few? Here are some examples -Labour in 1959 Parliament. Tories in Oct 1974 Parliament. Labour in 1987 Parliament.Tories in 1997 Parliament. Tories in 2001 Parliament.Tories in 2005 Parliament.
I wasn't clear, this is looking at weighted averages of polls and NESV.
I am not sure that changes anything. In each of the examples I referred to the Opposition performed better at the subsequent General Election than polls were suggesting at the 15/16 month stage of those Parliaments.
What are the figures in each case?
Most of this data can be found from UK Polling Report website.
Ah, I was hoping for actual numbers. It'll be interesting to make a plot of opposition poll share - opposition score at the following GE as a function of months since the previous GE.
What is that supposed to be based on? Certainly not recent polls!
Historical movements between now and election day of May 2020 coupled with the substantial lead May enjoys over Corbyn and the Tory lead on the economy.
These are the people who in November 2013 accurately forecast a small Tory majority at GE 2015 based on those precedents.
Very few oppositions do better at a GE than they do at this point in the electoral cycle.
Very few? Here are some examples -Labour in 1959 Parliament. Tories in Oct 1974 Parliament. Labour in 1987 Parliament.Tories in 1997 Parliament. Tories in 2001 Parliament.Tories in 2005 Parliament.
I wasn't clear, this is looking at weighted averages of polls and NESV.
I am not sure that changes anything. In each of the examples I referred to the Opposition performed better at the subsequent General Election than polls were suggesting at the 15/16 month stage of those Parliaments.
What are the figures in each case?
Most of this data can be found from UK Polling Report website.
Ah, I was hoping for actual numbers. It'll be interesting to make a plot of opposition poll share - opposition score at the following GE as a function of months since the previous GE.
What is that supposed to be based on? Certainly not recent polls!
Historical movements between now and election day of May 2020 coupled with the substantial lead May enjoys over Corbyn and the Tory lead on the economy.
These are the people who in November 2013 accurately forecast a small Tory majority at GE 2015 based on those precedents.
Very few oppositions do better at a GE than they do at this point in the electoral cycle.
Very few? Here are some examples -Labour in 1959 Parliament. Tories in Oct 1974 Parliament. Labour in 1987 Parliament.Tories in 1997 Parliament. Tories in 2001 Parliament.Tories in 2005 Parliament.
I wasn't clear, this is looking at weighted averages of polls and NESV.
I am not sure that changes anything. In each of the examples I referred to the Opposition performed better at the subsequent General Election than polls were suggesting at the 15/16 month stage of those Parliaments.
What are the figures in each case?
Most of this data can be found from UK Polling Report website.
Ah, I was hoping for actual numbers. It'll be interesting to make a plot of opposition poll share - opposition score at the following GE as a function of months since the previous GE.
You will find numbers there!
Yes, but I would have thought you'd have calculated an average for those months and compared it to the following GE before making such a claim.
Using UNS based seat predictor with Corbyn in charge of Labour is not going to work out well for predictions.
Add in recent times, polling at GEs have tended to overestimate Labour.
I feel a thread coming on....
Not in 2010 - 1983 or February 1974.
So only three times in the last 42 years? Or only three times in the last eleven general elections. You're making my points for me.
2005 was pretty close to the outcome. 1997 ICM underestimated the Labour lead.
Probably the only polling company to do so!
Yes - but for so long it was seen as the Gold Standard! A week before Polling Day ICM caused panic in Labour ranks by showing its lead drop to 5%. Its final poll showing a Labour 10% lead was still 3% too low.
Leading Labour and being the official opposition leader is not only good for Corbyn's brand of socialism but also his bank balance, what other person with 2 E grade A Levels, no degree and no work experience outside trade unions and the Labour Party would earn £138,000 a year, live in a £600,000 house and have a £2 million pension pot as Corbyn has? Corbyn has managed to profit from his socialism in a way any capitalist would be proud of!
''Again, why is Tristram Hunt a Labour MP ? And an MP for Stoke Central ?''
Both are conundrums, I'll grant you.
Surely people with the opinions of Tristram Hunt should be candidates in rural Oxfordshire, not an inner city.
If Labour really want Hunt in the party he should be sent to Chipping Norton where he is in tune with the locals, instead of losing piles of votes in Stoke.
Islington South, Westminster North, Hove, Cambridge, Exeter, Bristol West would all be good fits.
Leading Labour and being the official opposition leader is not only good for Corbyn's brand of socialism but also his bank balance, what other person with 2 E grade A Levels, no degree and no work experience outside trade unions and the Labour Party would earn £138,000 a year, live in a £600,000 house and have a £2 million pension pot as Corbyn has?
Using UNS based seat predictor with Corbyn in charge of Labour is not going to work out well for predictions.
Add in recent times, polling at GEs have tended to overestimate Labour.
I feel a thread coming on....
Not in 2010 - 1983 or February 1974.
So only three times in the last 42 years? Or only three times in the last eleven general elections. You're making my points for me.
2005 was pretty close to the outcome. 1997 ICM underestimated the Labour lead.
Probably the only polling company to do so!
Yes - but for so long it was seen as the Gold Standard! A week before Polling Day ICM caused panic in Labour ranks by showing its lead drop to 5%. Its final poll showing a Labour 10% lead was still 3% too low.
So we can agree that almost all polls overstated Labour in 97?
Using UNS based seat predictor with Corbyn in charge of Labour is not going to work out well for predictions.
Add in recent times, polling at GEs have tended to overestimate Labour.
I feel a thread coming on....
Not in 2010 - 1983 or February 1974.
So only three times in the last 42 years? Or only three times in the last eleven general elections. You're making my points for me.
2005 was pretty close to the outcome. 1997 ICM underestimated the Labour lead.
Probably the only polling company to do so!
Yes - but for so long it was seen as the Gold Standard! A week before Polling Day ICM caused panic in Labour ranks by showing its lead drop to 5%. Its final poll showing a Labour 10% lead was still 3% too low.
Leading Labour and being the official opposition leader is not only good for Corbyn's brand of socialism but also his bank balance, what other person with 2 E grade A Levels, no degree and no work experience outside trade unions and the Labour Party would earn £138,000 a year, live in a £600,000 house and have a £2 million pension pot as Corbyn has? Corbyn has managed to profit from his socialism in a way any capitalist would be proud of!
A friend of mine left school with no qualifications at all and started a small business. He sold it for £8 million.
But somehow I don't think Corbyn would have been able to do that. It required hard work, skill, and luck.
Leading Labour and being the official opposition leader is not only good for Corbyn's brand of socialism but also his bank balance, what other person with 2 E grade A Levels, no degree and no work experience outside trade unions and the Labour Party would earn £138,000 a year, live in a £600,000 house and have a £2 million pension pot as Corbyn has? Corbyn has managed to profit from his socialism in a way any capitalist would be proud of!
Yet despite all that he doesn't look or behave like a rich man. He has been criticized for wearing the clothes of a tramp, having an allotment, and for making his own Jam.
''Again, why is Tristram Hunt a Labour MP ? And an MP for Stoke Central ?''
Both are conundrums, I'll grant you.
Surely people with the opinions of Tristram Hunt should be candidates in rural Oxfordshire, not an inner city.
If Labour really want Hunt in the party he should be sent to Chipping Norton where he is in tune with the locals, instead of losing piles of votes in Stoke.
He would never win in Oxfordshire with a red rosette, Islington, Hampstead or Oxford or Cambridge are better fits for his background and beliefs
If anyone in Sussex / North Essex this afternoon avoid the A12 at Colchester - nasty crash leaving a convertible on its roof London bound. Major congestion in area.
Thanks, just as well I was driving back from Kent to Essex this morning
What is that supposed to be based on? Certainly not recent polls!
Based on an 8% swing from Labour to the Tories which no poll has ever recorded. Even if you take the 2 most extreme values from the opinion polls it will still give you only half of that.
So it assumes a Tory lead of circa 23! Very likely I am sure.
Leading Labour and being the official opposition leader is not only good for Corbyn's brand of socialism but also his bank balance, what other person with 2 E grade A Levels, no degree and no work experience outside trade unions and the Labour Party would earn £138,000 a year, live in a £600,000 house and have a £2 million pension pot as Corbyn has? Corbyn has managed to profit from his socialism in a way any capitalist would be proud of!
Yet despite all that he doesn't look or behave like a rich man. He has been criticized for wearing the clothes of a tramp, having an allotment, and for making his own Jam.
He wasn't criticized for making his own jam, he was criticized for ignoring a story questioning his honesty in favour of making jam.
Leading Labour and being the official opposition leader is not only good for Corbyn's brand of socialism but also his bank balance, what other person with 2 E grade A Levels, no degree and no work experience outside trade unions and the Labour Party would earn £138,000 a year, live in a £600,000 house and have a £2 million pension pot as Corbyn has?
Len McCluskey?
Even McCluskey worked for the Mersey Docks and Harbour Company for 11 years
Rarefied creature that I am, I have always had a strict no-ink/pierced ears only dating rule. Yes, my middle name is 'Shallow', no I don't care. As my dating days are behind me, it's moot in any case.
Fantastic business opportunity in the next 5-10 years...tattoo removal.
There's a program on Channel 4 called 'Tattoo Fixers' or somesuch: I caught it because it was on after Agents of Shield. Well worth a watch for pure WTFery.
Ink Masters and Tattoo Nightmares are superb on SpikeTV - they were the concept Tattoo Fixers copied in a scummy E4 way. The crappy executions on Tattoo Fixers makes me wince - the USA judges would murder them in seconds.
There was an interesting bit on this on 5 Live this AM with a dermatologist. He reckoned that high quality tattoos were far more problematic to remove as they involve so many pigments,:and often couldn't be removed at all. Cheap monochrome ones with broad lines were ideal for Laser removal.
When I lived in NZ facial tattoos were fairly common, and not just amongst polynesians, and not just in traditional forms. Indeed I believe Tattooing only became fashionable amongst sailors following exploration of polynesia.
But there is a serious point. If we want to reduce social exclusion, and improve the position of the WWC then we have to accept that tattos will be seen on doctors, lawyers and policemen.
As I understand it - the worse crime in tattooing is dragging the skin during the inking - leading to awful scarring that's impossible to cover up properly and impossible to remove as it's made a mess of the upper layers too.
There's a lovely episode of Ink Masters that does mastectomies. Honestly, the artistry is incredible. The hacks on UK shows score 2/10 in comparison to the top guys here.
Comments
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/28/boundary-review-changes-affect-200-labour-party-seats-robert-hayward-report
Having said that, I saw an interesting set of tats on the arm of a woman serving in a shop recently. It was a line of numbers up to 8, with each one crossed out except for the last.
It was the number of years she had survived since being diagnosed with terminal cancer. Each year on the day of diagnosis, she goes to a tattoo parlour, has a stroke put through the last number and a new one added.
I felt bad, as I had joked that it was the number of husbands she had had ...
E.g.:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/woman-regrets-bum-tattoo-reminds-7348543
Even if you take the 2 most extreme values from the opinion polls it will still give you only half of that.
What, I wonder, are the main reasons that labour constituencies tend to shrink, whilst tory ones tend to get larger???
Increasingly it is part of a female mid life crisis such as SamCam. Indeed when a Tory Prime Ministers wife has a tattoo it can hardly be seen as countercultural.
Discriminating against tattooed applicants withouut good reason would be discrimination against the WWC so beloved of PB Kippers and fellow travellers.
The legislation certainly does not allow Bercow to intervene on the basis that the Leader of the Opposition is incompetent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKQrobVBD2c
These are the people who in November 2013 accurately forecast a small Tory majority at GE 2015 based on those precedents.
Very few oppositions do better at a GE than they do at this point in the electoral cycle.
Of course payback came in the referendum when Cameron's entire position was dependent on the same people he tried to depress.
I feel a thread coming on....
That's why they frantically tried to re-register as many Labour voters they could by referendum day, an extra 2 million registered but it wasn't enough to save Cameron.
If the boundary commission based it on the electoral register today, it would have been different.
When I lived in NZ facial tattoos were fairly common, and not just amongst polynesians, and not just in traditional forms. Indeed I believe Tattooing only became fashionable amongst sailors following exploration of polynesia.
But there is a serious point. If we want to reduce social exclusion, and improve the position of the WWC then we have to accept that tattos will be seen on doctors, lawyers and policemen.
https://twitter.com/hrtbps/status/770222766738079745
Again, why is Tristram Hunt a Labour MP ?
And an MP for Stoke Central ?
Even if Hunt is the Labour candidate for Stoke in 2020 he might lose his seat despite having a majority of 5700, the man is absolutely detested there and for a good reason.
And an MP for Stoke Central ?''
Both are conundrums, I'll grant you.
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/infowars-accounts-hacked-prison-planet-alex-jones
I wonder who Alex Jones will blame?
On a serious note, this is another example, that we really need some regulation in regards to companies encrypting personal data properly. That seems like proper "data protection" compared to some of the nonsense that it currently concerns.
Personally, I find Rennie an irritating waffler but a lot of people seem to like him and he had a very high profile as leader in the debates etc. Winning back the constituency will be dependent upon having the right candidate. More possible than likely I would say.
If Labour really want Hunt in the party he should be sent to Chipping Norton where he is in tune with the locals, instead of losing piles of votes in Stoke.
There hasn;t as yet been a real election where labour supporters have had cause to think 'Wow if we've lost x then....help!' There may not be one for some time.
Ms Rousseff began her defence by reminding senators that she had been re-elected by more than 54 million voters.
Surely that would be irrelevant to whether or not she broke the law (no idea if she did, although the whole lot stink as viewed from the outside)?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-37212391
Anthony Weiner scandal: Huma Abedin splits from sexting husband
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-37214533
But somehow I don't think Corbyn would have been able to do that. It required hard work, skill, and luck.
He has been criticized for wearing the clothes of a tramp, having an allotment, and for making his own Jam.
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/439451/donald-trump-will-win-five-reasons-why
Good evening, everyone.
There needs to be a button that goes straight to the first comment.
There's a lovely episode of Ink Masters that does mastectomies. Honestly, the artistry is incredible. The hacks on UK shows score 2/10 in comparison to the top guys here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_Ex77EZFrU