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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s ten local by-elections with UKIP, CON, LAB and the LDs defending seats

Pelham (Lab defence) on Gravesham
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 23, Labour 21 (Conservative majority of 2)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,792, 1,708, 1,625 (50%)
Conservatives 1,246, 1,131, 1,038 (35%)
Green Party 525 (15%)
Referendum Result:

Read the full story here

rcs1000

What on earth has happened in Farnham?

rcs1000

As an aside, I reckon the LDs will pick up Farnham Castle and hold Ormesby. The Conservatives will pick up one of the Farnham seats, and the Residents will pick up another.

Labour will hold Tooting.

And I have no idea in Thanet.

FrancisUrquhart

Taekwondo - what an odd sport.

rcs1000

FPT:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

John_M said:

As I've said before, if 650k in two years isn't mass immigration, please tell me what number would qualify. We should note that immigration is primarily to England. From memory Scotland has ~173k and Wales ~85k.

Nonetheless public perception is wrong in many respects. In particular:

- People think there are zillions of asylum seekers coming into the UK. In fact there are very few (around 25,000 out of 600,000 immigrants).

- People think it is easy for non-EEA citizens to come here, and are amazed when they are told just how draconian the rules are.

- People don't think of students as immigrants, but they account for about a third of all immigrants; there is almost universal support in favour of continuing to take their fees!

Basically the only ways of reducing net immigration significantly are either to reduce EU worker migration, or to encourage more people to emigrate (I suppose trashing the economy would do both..). That's basically why I think the Brexit settlement must exclude freedom of movement; it was the strongest argument for leaving the EU, and the most important one for many Leave voters.

If students came here for 3-4 years, and then left again, applying for a new work visa if required once outside the UK, there wouldn't be a problem. But there is. Most students (and many are students in name only) turn out to be permanent economic migrants.

The Government needs to tighten up on that, family reunions - particularly from the subcontinent, and put a similar cap on EU worker migration.

I think it should be feasible to get net migration down to between 100-175k per year, depending upon the economic cycle.

I would bet that net migration will be negative at some point in the next ten years.

Sandpit

rcs1000 said:

What on earth has happened in Farnham?

https://waverleyweb.org/2016/06/13/a-by-election-or-two-or-maybe-three/

tlg86

rcs1000 said:

What on earth has happened in Farnham?

Probably the same person held one of the Waverley seats and the Surrey CC seat.

MarkSenior

rcs1000 said:

As an aside, I reckon the LDs will pick up Farnham Castle and hold Ormesby. The Conservatives will pick up one of the Farnham seats, and the Residents will pick up another.

Labour will hold Tooting.

And I have no idea in Thanet.

I expect Residents to pick up at least 2 of the Farnham seats and Conservatives to just hold the CC seat .. LDs will hold Ormesby easily . Catterick is unpredictable , fracking has been an important local issue there .

FrancisUrquhart

rcs1000 said:

FPT:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

John_M said:

As I've said before, if 650k in two years isn't mass immigration, please tell me what number would qualify. We should note that immigration is primarily to England. From memory Scotland has ~173k and Wales ~85k.

Nonetheless public perception is wrong in many respects. In particular:

- People think there are zillions of asylum seekers coming into the UK. In fact there are very few (around 25,000 out of 600,000 immigrants).

- People think it is easy for non-EEA citizens to come here, and are amazed when they are told just how draconian the rules are.

- People don't think of students as immigrants, but they account for about a third of all immigrants; there is almost universal support in favour of continuing to take their fees!

Basically the only ways of reducing net immigration significantly are either to reduce EU worker migration, or to encourage more people to emigrate (I suppose trashing the economy would do both..). That's basically why I think the Brexit settlement must exclude freedom of movement; it was the strongest argument for leaving the EU, and the most important one for many Leave voters.

If students came here for 3-4 years, and then left again, applying for a new work visa if required once outside the UK, there wouldn't be a problem. But there is. Most students (and many are students in name only) turn out to be permanent economic migrants.

The Government needs to tighten up on that, family reunions - particularly from the subcontinent, and put a similar cap on EU worker migration.

I think it should be feasible to get net migration down to between 100-175k per year, depending upon the economic cycle.

I would bet that net migration will be negative at some point in the next ten years.

Why do you think that?

Pulpstar

Super Farnham Thursday

Jonathan

rcs1000 said:

What on earth has happened in Farnham?

I don't think anything has happened in Farnham, ever.

tlg86

Pulpstar said:

Super Farnham Thursday

If you're ever driving through Farnham on the A31 there is a knack to getting through the Shepherd and Flock roundabout in the rush hour from the west. You're supposed to get in the right hand lane to carry on towards Guildford, but you should always stick to the left hand lane as you can always nip across on the roundabout and if the worst comes to the worst you can quickly go round the adjoining roundabout on the A325.

williamglenn

FPT

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

perdix said:

DavidL said:

peter_from_putney said:

One aspect above all others persuaded me to vote LEAVE. That was the insulting and patronising way in which David Cameron tried to pretend he had achieved a great deal from other EU member states in his so-called re-negotiations, when in truth he achieved next to nothing.
We knew this from the outset, based on his very modest demands and the way in which he was determined to conclude his discussions with undue haste, when by his own self-imposed timetable, he could readily have continued negotiating for a further 18 months. For whatever reason, he deliberately chose not to.

This was certainly a factor in my decision to vote leave but my reasoning was somewhat different. What Cameron's negotiations showed me that real change was not possible within the EU, it is a bureaucratic mess which is frankly indifferent to what its citizens want and is incapable of addressing those concerns.

If Cameron had shown that perception to be false and achieved real reform recognising the stresses freedom of movement were causing Britain I would probably have voted differently but his half hearted attempts convinced me that my assessment of the EU was shared by those on the inside. Leaving was the only sensible option.

The real reason why change in the EU seemed impossible was that the majority of EU politicians have the objective of a United States of Europe and they don't want to jeopardise their gravy train. However, it is now becoming clearer to many of them that "one size fits all" for currency, labour movement and other institutions are at a minimum counter-productive or may lead to the eventual breakup of the Union.

I think the currency union *needs* freedom of labour. If you go back to the papers at the start of the Euro in 1998/1999, there was a lot of talk about optimum currency areas, and one of the things that the Eurozone was criticised for was lack of labour mobility between countries.

More of an issue in the post GFC/Eurozone crisis has been the inability of the German government to see that its austerity and current account surplus made it much harder for the periphery to rebalance. A modest consumer boom in Germany, with 3-5% wage inflation and rising imports, would have done wonders for the competitiveness of Spain and Italy, as well as encouraging Germans to recycle their Euros in beachfront property.

And, as members of the EU and subject to free movement, we are the pressure whistle for the eurozone that never stops singing.

Is most of the EU migration to the UK from countries inside or outside the Eurozone?

Casino_Royale

I'm shocked there are that many Labour voters in Farnham.

OldKingCole

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

Super Farnham Thursday

If you're ever driving through Farnham on the A31 there is a knack to getting through the Shepherd and Flock roundabout in the rush hour from the west. You're supposed to get in the right hand lane to carry on towards Guildford, but you should always stick to the left hand lane as you can always nip across on the roundabout and if the worst comes to the worst you can quickly go round the adjoining roundabout on the A325.

I don't think, after that, that I ever want to go to Farnham. Sounds worse than the old "Magic Roundabout" on the A13 at the junction with the A130.

tlg86

OldKingCole said:

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

Super Farnham Thursday

If you're ever driving through Farnham on the A31 there is a knack to getting through the Shepherd and Flock roundabout in the rush hour from the west. You're supposed to get in the right hand lane to carry on towards Guildford, but you should always stick to the left hand lane as you can always nip across on the roundabout and if the worst comes to the worst you can quickly go round the adjoining roundabout on the A325.

I don't think, after that, that I ever want to go to Farnham. Sounds worse than the old "Magic Roundabout" on the A13 at the junction with the A130.

Not a touch on Swindon's magic roundabout, that's great fun.

williamglenn

SeanT said:

Am I the only person perving these Olympic lady divers with their notably firm, tight little butts?

OK. Fair enough.

Apparently the BBC photo editor is too - http://www.bbc.co.uk/

OldKingCole

tlg86 said:

OldKingCole said:

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

Super Farnham Thursday

If you're ever driving through Farnham on the A31 there is a knack to getting through the Shepherd and Flock roundabout in the rush hour from the west. You're supposed to get in the right hand lane to carry on towards Guildford, but you should always stick to the left hand lane as you can always nip across on the roundabout and if the worst comes to the worst you can quickly go round the adjoining roundabout on the A325.

I don't think, after that, that I ever want to go to Farnham. Sounds worse than the old "Magic Roundabout" on the A13 at the junction with the A130.

Not a touch on Swindon's magic roundabout, that's great fun.

I think they were very similar; I've had passengers shutting their eyes as I drove round the Essex one!
Sadly it's been replaced by a set of flyovers.

Paul_Bedfordshire

British "Empire" Running away with Olympics.

HM Queen is Beating everyone.

US.
31:Gold,
32 Silver,
31 Bronze

HM Queens Realms.
40 Gold,
41 Silver.
36 Bronze.

(UK, Australia, NZ, Canada, Jamaica, Bahamas, Grenada)

MaxPB

SeanT said:

Am I the only person perving these Olympic lady divers with their notably firm, tight little butts?

OK. Fair enough.

There's a 15 year old one in there.

williamglenn

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

British "Empire" Running away with Olympics

Especially for EU...

http://medaltracker.eu/

tlg86

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

Am I the only person perving these Olympic lady divers with their notably firm, tight little butts?

OK. Fair enough.

There's a 15 year old one in there.

Eeek. Now I feel bad.

Sorta.

Ish.

Don't worry, the age of consent in Brazil is 14.

Sandpit

tlg86 said:

OldKingCole said:

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

Super Farnham Thursday

If you're ever driving through Farnham on the A31 there is a knack to getting through the Shepherd and Flock roundabout in the rush hour from the west. You're supposed to get in the right hand lane to carry on towards Guildford, but you should always stick to the left hand lane as you can always nip across on the roundabout and if the worst comes to the worst you can quickly go round the adjoining roundabout on the A325.

I don't think, after that, that I ever want to go to Farnham. Sounds worse than the old "Magic Roundabout" on the A13 at the junction with the A130.

Not a touch on Swindon's magic roundabout, that's great fun.

There's one like Swindon's in Hemel Hempstead too. Very confusing if you've not seen one before.

Paul_Bedfordshire

tlg86 said:

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

Am I the only person perving these Olympic lady divers with their notably firm, tight little butts?

OK. Fair enough.

There's a 15 year old one in there.

Eeek. Now I feel bad.

Sorta.

Ish.

Don't worry, the age of consent in Brazil is 14.

Wont stop you getting your collar felt if you are British as soon as you return to blighty I'm afraid.

MarkHopkins

new thread

John_M

Thanks Harry, looks like we're not going to be able to do justice to your thread .