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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Elections : 4th August is Super Thursday with 4 Co
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Elections : 4th August is Super Thursday with 4 Con, 2 Lab, and 1 UKIP defence
Beaver (Lab defence) on Ashford
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 34, Labour 4, Independents 3, Liberal Democrat 1, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 25)
Result of ward at last election (2015) :
0
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East Lothian: Smith
Aberdeenenshire West: Smith
Hayes and Harlington: Corbyn
Gateshead. Corbyn
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse: Corbyn
Hackney South: Corbyn 96 Smith 61
Mid Derbyshire: Corbyn 41 Smith 19
Edinburgh North and Leith: Corbyn
Totnes:. Corbyn
Luton North: Corbyn
SW Devon: Corbyn
Dagenham and Rainham: Corbyn
Congleton: Corbyn
Newcastle Central: Corbyn 41 Smith 40
Neath CLP decides not to make any nominations.
Either way, Corbyn still has momentum and Momentum. Smith is going backwards.
8:40PM
murali_s said:
» show previous quotes
Of course not but it was the key driver is 'Leave' winning. You need to get out more...
It genuinely wasn't for all of the people I know who voted leave. Admittedly, immigration was an issue for some, but it wasn't the "darkies", as you so elegantly put it that were the key issue. Obviously, in your fuckwitted mind, anyone who wasn't keen on the EU is a racist little Englander. That says far more about you than me.
edited to add-
I'm crap at this quoting malarky
Labour closer to 20% or 30% ??
Just asking ....
Not watching the show. Is it on the horror channel?
Just asking...
Or they might see sense and find someone credible.
*snigger*
Oh, and I'm confused - I thought CLP meetings had been suspended, so how are they nominating?
"To do anything, we need a Labour Government. Corbyn can't win"
Everything else is just fluff
https://gqrr.app.box.com/s/8fryc6auj1y9x3f5syp6hrwqep2xz45l
Full details and data tables here.
http://www.gqrr.com/articles/2016/8/4/the-21-things-you-need-to-know-to-understand-why-britain-voted-leave
I found it interesting. The ABC1 split was a genuine surprise. It also shows how people respond if context changes. Support for immigration/refugees climbs dramatically if security and control is emphasised. That's heartening whichever way you voted.
The Brexit shit will hit the fan soon and it will be the masses that suffer the most sadly.
If one were to be looking for a betting strategy, I fancy one might do worse, than come on here listen carefully to see which way the majority of the denizens are blowing and then bet on the opposite.
Usual caveats apply; DYOR, the opinions of some are possibly worth more than others, some posters are pushing their own book etc..
Of the four Con seats, looks like three Con holds, with a chance of a LD gain in Eden?
Don't know about the Newcastle under Lyme. Looks very local.
I suppose you could argue that includes migration policy, but there was a separate and much more obvious option on immigration control.
The political landscape could look very different in 4 years time - we will have a much clearer idea how Brexit is turning out and the Tories could be taking the rap if it has not gone well. I also doubt May will be as popular as she is right now just because she will have had 4 years to upset people as all PMs inevitably do.
FWIW my bets will be on low turnout (possibly close to the lowest in decades) and lowest share of the vote for the 2 major parties for some time.
It really will depend on how wise the Brexit decision looks in 4 years time. One thing is certain is that if it goes tits up the good folk of Stoke-on-Trent will not be blaming themselves!
Labour's best hope is for a health crisis to force Corbyn's retirement - as I can't see the membership voting out their Dear Leader for some time to come.
Don't be a (2).
Completly agree that PB, in the round, is always wrong. There are just a few savvy individuals. However, in this case, I'm feeling confident that Labour are doomed
"Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”. One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.” Just over one in eight (13%) said remaining would mean having no choice “about how the EU expanded its membership or its powers in the years ahead.” Only just over one in twenty (6%) said their main reason was that “when it comes to trade and the economy, the UK would benefit more from being outside the EU than from being part of it.”
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/
In other words, people who physically reside here, but couldn't really give a toss about the UK as a nation state.
But that Labour has now long gone.
There is some sort of irony there.
I also wouldn't underestimate the fickleness of the electorate to do a complete u-turn if Brexit does not go to plan. Retribution will be swift and painful for those perceived to be the culprits. I think the Lib Dems will be the main gainers over the next couple of years rather than UKIP.
Yes, I know the LDs only have 8 MPs (etc.) but what the hell is he doing?
There are ways for very minor parties to get notice. And they do better than he does.
In much the same way LBJ won a US Senate seat in 1948 by less than 100 votes due to some more monkey business in texas, winning him the lifelong sarcastic nickname 'Landslide Lyndon'.
His voice does not sound like a serious political leader. He has not gravitas.
He is another from the geography teacher school of political leaders.
Midterm. (albeit mitigated by a potential new PM honeymoon.)
In departing may I respectfully direct your attention to SeanT's post timed at 21:11 on my machine (I suspect it is 22:11 real BST) especially the final paragraph.
It really is only 9:30pm
The problem is their biggest talent is Clegg - and he isn't going to make a comeback.
Hard to say how this will play out. Define Blairite.
But we are where we are and we're all getting on with it. We are also allowed, when some element of Brexit disadvantages us, to point that out.
Remainderers will always blame ALL Brexiters, and vice versa. C'est la vie.
Broxtowe: Corbyn 25 Smith 4
Lewes: Corbyn
Ilford South: Corbyn 25 Smith 8
Hackney North: Corbyn 132 Smith 65
St Helens South: Corbyn
North Norfolk: Corbyn
Southampton Itchen: Corbyn 46 Smith 14
Enfield Southgate : Corbyn 70 Smith 34
Bermondsey & Old Southwark: Smith 104 Corbyn 94
Newcastle North: Smith 49 Corbyn 28
We obviously disagree on the consequences of Brexit but the political landscape in 2020 will very much depend on how people people perceive Brexit has worked out. I say perceived because, as much was erroneously blamed on the EU before June 23rd, much will be blamed on Brexit between now and the GE.
murali_s
1,685
8:40PM
murali_s said:
» show previous quotes
'In your circle of friends maybe but as I said you need to get out more - immigration was the KEY and ONLY issue for the masses who voted for "Leave"
'Am I a racist little Englander for not supporting the political aspects of the EU?'
I wouldn't worry about it , as according to this idiot there are 17 million racists.
Frankly she should be asked to pay back her salary for all the waste she has created.
More chance of me shagging Kylie Minogue.
They are obssesed with the EU, IF they could focus on something else they would stand a chance.
But they cant.
It is bad enough trying to stop those with mental health problems being stigmatised (and would you say about someone with cancer, "oh, they are suffering from physical illness") without the Police rushing with indecent haste to state it was all down to mental health.
In any event, it does not bear any sort of logical scrutiny: if mental illness was the real driver of these stabbings, why are we not seeing mentally ill Christians or Hindus or Buddhists carrying out similar attacks? The fact that the perpetrators appear to have a common religious background might just be an influencing factor.
Still, I can see why this would be a potential nightmare for all those who are anti-Trump - an American gets killed in London by a (probably) Muslim youth. It would hit all the themes of the Trump campaign.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/08/clinton-virginia-ads-battleground-states-226681
This article skewers her very effectively. It's not the first to have done so. Sadly, the talentless and unscrupulous rise to the top like scum on water.
http://www.thetower.org/article/britains-labour-party-tries-to-whitewash-its-anti-semitism/
"Sir" Craig Oliver, knighted for ensuring Mr Cameron + senior cabinet ministers were not interviewed by me over six years. Well earned, sir
Because it's AND, not OR.
Many of the recent attacks appear to have been perpetrated by people who had a mental health issue and who were drawn into Islamic radicalisation.
There are people with mental health issues that perpetrate acts of violence that are unrelated to any particular ideology, every day in this country.
You (one) wants to be a politician? Go for it. All you need is people to vote for you.
I don't think (m)any politicians are talentless.
'The LDs are irrelevant to national politics. Need to focus on councils if they want to continue to exist.'
Agree, their forte is keeping public toilets open, bin collections etc
As soon as they had a record in government to defend it all went pear-shaped, having a student union style leader doesn't help..
Would you care to cite any event in the past 12 months where there has been an attack by someone with a mental health issue that was similar to what happened at Leytonstone tube or yesterday in Russell Square and where there was no question of a possible religious / terrorism angle?
Compared with his rivals, Corbyn really is the least bad option.