Andrew Buncombe at the Independent has finally twigged that Trump may drop out.
The Betfair markets in Kasich, Cruz, Pence and Ryan (but not in Rubio and Bush) are becoming more lively.
If Trump (or Clinton) dies or drops out - what is the procedure for a new candidate?
We covered that 6 hours ago.
The RNC would choose Trump's replacement, but Trump would have to agree to resign first.
However the only way Trump's replacement is not dead on arrival (half of the GOP voters are Trump fanatics) would be if it where someone from the Trump family (my proposal is Ivanka Trump) that takes over the nomination.
Any replacement of Trump who doesn't have the surname Trump is doomed for practical political reasons.
Andrew Buncombe at the Independent has finally twigged that Trump may drop out.
The Betfair markets in Kasich, Cruz, Pence and Ryan (but not in Rubio and Bush) are becoming more lively.
If Trump (or Clinton) dies or drops out - what is the procedure for a new candidate?
I don't know how the Democrats do it, but if Trump dies or drops out the Republican National Committee may either pick a replacement by itself or reconvene the national convention to do so. (Rule 9.)
My parting shot for tonight. A brief excerpt from Robert Tombs (great, great history btw, only a tenner on Kindle)
" Nor has England declined economically: by the late 1950s and 1960s it was of course richer than ever. The change has been that a few other countries have caught up. This is not a quibble, but a fundamental difference of analysis, as catching up with the pioneers is a normal feature of economic modernization, as developing countries attract foreign investment and import the latest technology. England remains, as in 1713, among the richest countries in the world - in 2008, among populous countries, the United Kingdom was second only to the United States in gross per capita income.
Declinism has been our national narrative for several generations, a chorus of lamentation in a lucky country where life is safer, longer and more comfortable than ever in history. What would happen to our view of the past, and the present, if we abandoned this historical fit of the vapours? Surely it would permit a calmer, more rational analysis of our situation and our needs."
Sure, incomes per head rose by about 70% between the end of WWII and joining the EU. As rapid a period of growth as any in our history.
"So we can sum up pb Brexiteers vision of post EU UK as having a currency worth less than the Bangla Deshi Taka and a population back working in the fields like pre Industrial Britain or Bangla Desh today ."
Seriously, Mark, WTF?
Do you know Britain was the first nation in history to industralise, made countless scientific and technical discoveries, built the greatest empire the world has ever seen, spread its ideas and values throughout the globe, stood up, fought and won two world wars, and achieved the British cultural renaissance of the 1960s, including the Beatles, James Bond and one world cup, without any help from the EU?
Perhaps not.
The Empire is hardly something to be proud of. Erm or James Bond! Can do better than an alcoholic misogynist? (Can do better than wanting to go back to the 60s?)
I'm very proud of the Empire.
Ask yourself this, why was the largest volunteer army in history, the British Indian Army? 3 million Indians, Pakistanis, and Bangladeshis decided to fight for their Emperor, the country that was their colonial masters.
One should also not forget the Indian troops that served in WW1, though most people have. Particular notice should be paid to the Indian infantry who served with great distinction on the Western front in 1914/15 but who did not get the recognition they deserved (in fact far from it) by the High Command at the time.
Brighton of course has a particular affinity with those WW1 troops as it provided the military hospitals (including the Brighton Pavilion) for wounded indian soldiers. A fact commemorated by the India Gate to the Pavilion and the Chattri memorial up on the South Downs where soldiers who died of their wounds were cremated (muslims were taken to the mosque in Woking, Surrey for burial). One day I will get around to writing up my research into the Brighton Hospitals, a story which my surprise many.
This really bothers me.
You are quite right, and Indian soldiers made huge sacrifices on the Western Front.
Even today, this is little known.
The poppy appeal has special poppies with the Sikh symbol. I see a fair number of these in November on older Sikhs:
Top lawyer facing criminal inquiry over 'bribes' paid to Iraqis bringing abuse claims against British troops
Phil Shiner is accused by legal regulators of knowing about the bribes which were allegedly disguised as expenses and then submitted as legal aid claims funded by the taxpayer.
Mr Shiner's law firm has brought more than 1,000 allegations against British soldiers, some of whom have been pursued through the courts and had their lives ruined.
You are quite right, and Indian soldiers made huge sacrifices on the Western Front.
Even today, this is little known.
I came across the Chattri by accident many years ago and that started me off researching the involvement of Indian Troops on the Western Front in WW1 about which I had previously known next to nothing. I was working full time then so I didn't have as much time as I would have liked to devote to the subject. By the time I was semi-retired and ready to start writing I had been gazumped, as it were, by Gordon Corrigan's superb book, "Sepoy in the Trenches" (ISBN 1-86227-354-5), which I thoroughly recommend to anyone with an interest in the subject or indeed anyone who has views on the Empire.
I carried on, though, researching Brighton's involvement and connection with the Indian troops and it is a fascinating story in its own right on so many levels. One day I will write it all up.
Most likely was backing James before her candidacy was known. I scooped 15/1 (max £6.33!!), but that was after the rumour.
Election Data @election_data Some reports that the Gambling Commission investigating unusual betting activity on markets relating to the Next UKIP Leader. 8:37 PM - 3 Aug 2016
Top lawyer facing criminal inquiry over 'bribes' paid to Iraqis bringing abuse claims against British troops
Phil Shiner is accused by legal regulators of knowing about the bribes which were allegedly disguised as expenses and then submitted as legal aid claims funded by the taxpayer.
Mr Shiner's law firm has brought more than 1,000 allegations against British soldiers, some of whom have been pursued through the courts and had their lives ruined.
Top lawyer facing criminal inquiry over 'bribes' paid to Iraqis bringing abuse claims against British troops
Phil Shiner is accused by legal regulators of knowing about the bribes which were allegedly disguised as expenses and then submitted as legal aid claims funded by the taxpayer.
Mr Shiner's law firm has brought more than 1,000 allegations against British soldiers, some of whom have been pursued through the courts and had their lives ruined.
FPT, the idea that the UK outside the EU would be some kind of third world country shows a remarkable lack of confidence in our abilities. I see no reason at all why we can't be as successful as countries like Australia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand, or Canada.
I think that's what a certain type of Remainer fears the most.
You see, it's not really about economic or political success. It's the fact the UK's governance will be almost solely national, rather than international, and that offends those who define their identity against what they see as the parochial, insular and uncosmopolitan nature of most 'domestic' Brits.
StrongerIn have launched a petition demanding visa-free travel to EU27 countries. Bless.
No visas will be required under any Brexit scenario.
I think what might have kicked this off is the idea of getting "stamps" in our new blue passports, if we get them back.
Simple solution: visa free. If you're desperate for a souvenir stamp, and you ask the customs office really nicely, you might get one.
I made the point that we have VoA or VF arrangements with 175 countries. The UN rate our passport #1 for mobility. if we can manage that kind of scheme for sub-saharan Africa, I daresay we can manage for France & Spain et al.
Just got back from Thailand a few weeks ago: no visa required.
I did get a nice entry and exit stamp though.
A lot of countries will issue a free visa on arrival, stamped with how long you can stay. It is not a visa required before travel,:but still a visa.
But does it matter?
We are outside Schengen. I have to queue at the UK border both in/out anyone even *inside* the EU where the UK border officials run digital checks, and rightly so.
In the v.unlikely event the EU does require a "visa" (assuming Schengen and the EU both stay "as is") everything stays the same, except I get a stamp.
Honestly, of all the things to worry about as a Remainer, this isn't one of them.
Just being pedantic about visas.
You should know by now: pedants are most unwelcome on this site.
Tish and pish, Mr Royale, good natured pedantry is a fine tradition of PB and always has been, well at least since I have been here (2007).
Top lawyer facing criminal inquiry over 'bribes' paid to Iraqis bringing abuse claims against British troops
Phil Shiner is accused by legal regulators of knowing about the bribes which were allegedly disguised as expenses and then submitted as legal aid claims funded by the taxpayer.
Mr Shiner's law firm has brought more than 1,000 allegations against British soldiers, some of whom have been pursued through the courts and had their lives ruined.
Andrew Buncombe at the Independent has finally twigged that Trump may drop out.
The Betfair markets in Kasich, Cruz, Pence and Ryan (but not in Rubio and Bush) are becoming more lively.
If Trump (or Clinton) dies or drops out - what is the procedure for a new candidate?
I don't know how the Democrats do it, but if Trump dies or drops out the Republican National Committee may either pick a replacement by itself or reconvene the national convention to do so. (Rule 9.)
If they pick a Trump family member (Ivanka) as the replacement, re-doing the convention would be a boon, since it provides for a convention boost without the democrats having one immediately after, and they could learn from the mistakes of the first one.
But only if they select a Trump family member, otherwise there is great risk of fist fights between the Trump delegates and everyone else.
Top lawyer facing criminal inquiry over 'bribes' paid to Iraqis bringing abuse claims against British troops
Phil Shiner is accused by legal regulators of knowing about the bribes which were allegedly disguised as expenses and then submitted as legal aid claims funded by the taxpayer.
Mr Shiner's law firm has brought more than 1,000 allegations against British soldiers, some of whom have been pursued through the courts and had their lives ruined.
FPT, the idea that the UK outside the EU would be some kind of third world country shows a remarkable lack of confidence in our abilities. I see no reason at all why we can't be as successful as countries like Australia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand, or Canada.
I think that's what a certain type of Remainer fears the most.
You see, it's not really about economic or political success. It's the fact the UK's governance will be almost solely national, rather than international, and that offends those who define their identity against what they see as the parochial, insular and uncosmopolitan nature of most 'domestic' Brits.
StrongerIn have launched a petition demanding visa-free travel to EU27 countries. Bless.
No visas will be required under any Brexit scenario.
I think what might have kicked this off is the idea of getting "stamps" in our new blue passports, if we get them back.
Simple solution: visa free. If you're desperate for a souvenir stamp, and you ask the customs office really nicely, you might get one.
I made the point that we have VoA or VF arrangements with 175 countries. The UN rate our passport #1 for mobility. if we can manage that kind of scheme for sub-saharan Africa, I daresay we can manage for France & Spain et al.
Just got back from Thailand a few weeks ago: no visa required.
I did get a nice entry and exit stamp though.
A lot of countries will issue a free visa on arrival, stamped with how long you can stay. It is not a visa required before travel,:but still a visa.
But does it matter?
We are outside Schengen. I have to queue at the UK border both in/out anyone even *inside* the EU where the UK border officials run digital checks, and rightly so.
In the v.unlikely event the EU does require a "visa" (assuming Schengen and the EU both stay "as is") everything stays the same, except I get a stamp.
Honestly, of all the things to worry about as a Remainer, this isn't one of them.
Just being pedantic about visas.
You should know by now: pedants are most unwelcome on this site.
Tish and pish, Mr Royale, good natured pedantry is a fine tradition of PB and always has been, well at least since I have been here (2007).
A couple of ward branches in Islington North actually failed to vote the motion of confidence in JC last month. London is probably the most anti Corbyn territory now.
The CLPs in hopeless seats are the ones coming out strongly for Corbyn.
This connects a bit with this yougov poll about a potencial Labour split.
An SDP like split will only affect Labour and the LD and would battle UKIP for 3rd place.
It would only take 1/4 of the Labour vote, 1/4 of the LD vote, 1/7th of the SNP vote and almost zero from everyone else.
It's highest share by far would be 19% in London, it would be a very London-centric party.
A split of Momentum would be bigger, getting almost half of the Labour vote while not affecting any other party apart from the SNP (it takes 1/6th of the SNP vote) and rivaling Labour for second place.
It's strongest areas would be London with 18% and the North with 17%.
In every scenario both splinters would tie each other in scotland, getting 10% each, the splinter getting it almost exclusively from the SNP.
A Momentum like party would have 14%, 1% more than the 13% for an SDP party but an SDP and LD combined party would have 19%, more than a Momentum like party and just 2% behind the 21% a Corbyn Labour Party would be left with https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/02/who-gets-keep-voters/
Andrew Buncombe at the Independent has finally twigged that Trump may drop out.
The Betfair markets in Kasich, Cruz, Pence and Ryan (but not in Rubio and Bush) are becoming more lively.
If Trump (or Clinton) dies or drops out - what is the procedure for a new candidate?
Are you thinking of having a whip-round to hire a hitman? If so, who is being targeted, or is it both?
No! But having read Donald Trump's Art of the Deal and some of his other scribblings, I am of the view that he is putting a great deal of his ego-dominated business style into this campaign on what for him is the new terrain of politics; that contrary to what some have opined, he has long viewed walking away as a serious option; and that if his chances of winning fall low enough, that's what he will do. He had the army vote in the bag; now he's scoffed not just at bereaved parents but at the parents of a fallen soldier. And increasing numbers of people are watching how he mocked a journalist's disability. Whatever one's view of climate change or NATO or illegal immigration, this guy is a big-time scumbag with serious self-control problems. He's going to see the writing on the wall, I think, and it may be quite soon.
I wonder how long the honeymoon will last. And if this is a low ebb for Labour, there are worse floors of support.
Low ebb for Labour? They have remained static (and I still think they will get about 28% of the vote in 2020). This poll with Conservatives up 2 and UKIP down 1 is, I think, just noise. Most polls are/
Skateboarding, surfing and climbing are among five new sports confirmed for the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games.
Karate and baseball/softball have also been added by the International Olympic Committee
Why do the IOC hate squash so much? At this rate wife carrying will get into the Olympics before they will.
I don't really understand the choices in Olympic sports. Golf, rugby, tennis, football, which all pros play in but isn't the pinnacle of their sport, but then others sports don't get a look in.
It's all about the Benjamins
What has hogan, crenshaw et al. got to do with it ;-)
Cons winning seats they've never won, like Newcastle under Lyme, Walsall North, NE Derbyshire, or rarely won, like Bridgend, yet former strongholds like Leeds NE, or Brighton Pavilion, let alone Scotland, are out of reach.
I wonder how long the honeymoon will last. And if this is a low ebb for Labour, there are worse floors of support.
Low ebb for Labour? They have remained static (and I still think they will get about 28% of the vote in 2020). This poll with Conservatives up 2 and UKIP down 1 is, I think, just noise. Most polls are/
That was my point - their low ebb seems to be static at around 27-29%, since despite all this that's about as low as it seems to go.
Cons winning seats they've never won, like Newcastle under Lyme, Walsall North, NE Derbyshire, or rarely won, like Bridgend, yet former strongholds like Leeds NE, or Brighton Pavilion, let alone Scotland, are out of reach.
The Tories have not won Scotland since the 1950s but May would be near Thatcher 1983 territory yes when she won 397 seats and doing slightly better than the 376 seats Thatcher won in 1987
Corbyn is not disadvantaged, he is the front runner, and the opprobrium he has received in the mainstream press is really a hundred per cent his own fault. When even the neutral BBC and the left-leaning Guardian – employer of his current, hard-left press spokesman, remember – starts being labelled anti-Corbyn, it’s because you’re doing something wrong.
Your continuing support for him is not only sentimental in the face of strong evidence against doing so, but it is a self-indulgence which is now threatening the very future of your party. It is not the time for protesting and sticking it to the man. This leader cannot win an election and, worse, he is busy refashioning the party in such a way that no future leader will ever have the means to, either. And if you think mass deselections in the PLP is really going to help us win the next election, you are already lost to reason.
In short, the party is dividing into two factions: Labour and Corbyn-Labour. The latter of these is fast becoming not merely a cult of personality, but a political death cult
Interesting that nike are going to still do golf apparel & shoes, but not bags. I would have thought bags was easy, where as I get clubs / balls require costly & constant technological development.
@darrenrovell: BREAKING: Nike announces it is ending its golf equipment business. No more clubs, balls or bags. Business just way to challenging.
Interesting although not surprising. In all my years of playing I have never used anything by them.
The fact their star sponsored players don't really use their equipment says something. Tigers clubs were copied / rebadge of his old set.
Where as tour players go out and actively use callaway & titleiest whatever their sponsor deal is.
I believe Tiger used to use rebadged Miuras?
I stil Rory actually uses nike stuff, but a) his game has been way more inconsistent since he signed with them & b) apparently he has been advised to try out other brands (there was an article I think 2 days ago about this).
Corbyn is not disadvantaged, he is the front runner, and the opprobrium he has received in the mainstream press is really a hundred per cent his own fault. When even the neutral BBC and the left-leaning Guardian – employer of his current, hard-left press spokesman, remember – starts being labelled anti-Corbyn, it’s because you’re doing something wrong.
Your continuing support for him is not only sentimental in the face of strong evidence against doing so, but it is a self-indulgence which is now threatening the very future of your party. It is not the time for protesting and sticking it to the man. This leader cannot win an election and, worse, he is busy refashioning the party in such a way that no future leader will ever have the means to, either. And if you think mass deselections in the PLP is really going to help us win the next election, you are already lost to reason.
In short, the party is dividing into two factions: Labour and Corbyn-Labour. The latter of these is fast becoming not merely a cult of personality, but a political death cult
I wonder how long the honeymoon will last. And if this is a low ebb for Labour, there are worse floors of support.
Low ebb for Labour? They have remained static (and I still think they will get about 28% of the vote in 2020). This poll with Conservatives up 2 and UKIP down 1 is, I think, just noise. Most polls are/
That was my point - their low ebb seems to be static at around 27-29%, since despite all this that's about as low as it seems to go.
Sorry, Mr. Kle4, I misunderstood your post. You are I think correct. No matter who is in charge, what idiocies they come out with, labour never seems to go below the 27% share.. That seems to have been true since 1983, I don't see why it should change over the next four years.
Quite what that means in seat terms I don't know, but I very much doubt they will lose very many even after the new boundaries have been implemented.
I wonder how long the honeymoon will last. And if this is a low ebb for Labour, there are worse floors of support.
Low ebb for Labour? They have remained static (and I still think they will get about 28% of the vote in 2020). This poll with Conservatives up 2 and UKIP down 1 is, I think, just noise. Most polls are/
That was my point - their low ebb seems to be static at around 27-29%, since despite all this that's about as low as it seems to go.
Sorry, Mr. Kle4, I misunderstood your post. You are I think correct. No matter who is in charge, what idiocies they come out with, labour never seems to go below the 27% share.. That seems to have been true since 1983, I don't see why it should change over the next four years.
Quite what that means in seat terms I don't know, but I very much doubt they will lose very many even after the new boundaries have been implemented.
Labour will push down into the early 20s with Corbyn in 2020 imho.
I wonder how long the honeymoon will last. And if this is a low ebb for Labour, there are worse floors of support.
Low ebb for Labour? They have remained static (and I still think they will get about 28% of the vote in 2020). This poll with Conservatives up 2 and UKIP down 1 is, I think, just noise. Most polls are/
That was my point - their low ebb seems to be static at around 27-29%, since despite all this that's about as low as it seems to go.
Sorry, Mr. Kle4, I misunderstood your post. You are I think correct. No matter who is in charge, what idiocies they come out with, labour never seems to go below the 27% share.. That seems to have been true since 1983, I don't see why it should change over the next four years.
Quite what that means in seat terms I don't know, but I very much doubt they will lose very many even after the new boundaries have been implemented.
Labour will push down into the early 20s with Corbyn in 2020 imho.
We have to remember that Corbyn and Momentum aren't interesting polling numbers or winning. They are all about the campaigning - gaining power doesn't matter as long as they are fighting for their causes on the streets.
We have to remember that Corbyn and Momentum aren't interesting polling numbers or winning. They are all about the campaigning - gaining power doesn't matter as long as they are fighting for their causes on the streets.
@Maomentum_: These polls simply reflect the bias against Jeremy Corbyn of mainstream voters.
Under armours story is a pretty cool one. University football guy living in his grandmother basement , selling shirts out the back of his car to other college sports teams. In less 20 years went from that to taking massive market share from all these monster established corporations.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago Dear Corbynites. Labour isn't 14 points behind May "because of the coup". It's because people don't like Corbyn. Honestly. It's that simple.
Jim Waterson @jimwaterson 27m27 minutes ago Jim Waterson Retweeted Britain Elects Tories are on FORTY TWO PERCENT while in government and during a national political crisis their referendum created.
@PCollinsTimes: Labour is 14 points behind the Tories. The worst of it that the poll surely overstates Labour's support. They won't poll 28. Nowhere near.
Yeh, that is a worry, or should be for Clinton. Friedman in NYT told her to get a grip and say something about economics and small business growth etc etc.
Top lawyer facing criminal inquiry over 'bribes' paid to Iraqis bringing abuse claims against British troops
Phil Shiner is accused by legal regulators of knowing about the bribes which were allegedly disguised as expenses and then submitted as legal aid claims funded by the taxpayer.
Mr Shiner's law firm has brought more than 1,000 allegations against British soldiers, some of whom have been pursued through the courts and had their lives ruined.
"So we can sum up pb Brexiteers vision of post EU UK as having a currency worth less than the Bangla Deshi Taka and a population back working in the fields like pre Industrial Britain or Bangla Desh today ."
Seriously, Mark, WTF?
Do you know Britain was the first nation in history to industralise, made countless scientific and technical discoveries, built the greatest empire the world has ever seen, spread its ideas and values throughout the globe, stood up, fought and won two world wars, and achieved the British cultural renaissance of the 1960s, including the Beatles, James Bond and one world cup, without any help from the EU?
I wonder how long the honeymoon will last. And if this is a low ebb for Labour, there are worse floors of support.
Low ebb for Labour? They have remained static (and I still think they will get about 28% of the vote in 2020). This poll with Conservatives up 2 and UKIP down 1 is, I think, just noise. Most polls are/
That was my point - their low ebb seems to be static at around 27-29%, since despite all this that's about as low as it seems to go.
Sorry, Mr. Kle4, I misunderstood your post. You are I think correct. No matter who is in charge, what idiocies they come out with, labour never seems to go below the 27% share.. That seems to have been true since 1983, I don't see why it should change over the next four years.
Quite what that means in seat terms I don't know, but I very much doubt they will lose very many even after the new boundaries have been implemented.
Labour will push down into the early 20s with Corbyn in 2020 imho.
Golly, that seems very pessimistic, if I may say so, Mr. Borough. That sort of result would imply the collapse of the tribalist vote would it not? I see no evidence for that, at least as yet. Furthermore where else would core Labour voters go? Not bothering I suppose, which would seem to make no sense, at least to me.
Andrew Buncombe at the Independent has finally twigged that Trump may drop out.
The Betfair markets in Kasich, Cruz, Pence and Ryan (but not in Rubio and Bush) are becoming more lively.
If Trump (or Clinton) dies or drops out - what is the procedure for a new candidate?
Are you thinking of having a whip-round to hire a hitman? If so, who is being targeted, or is it both?
No! But having read Donald Trump's Art of the Deal and some of his other scribblings, I am of the view that he is putting a great deal of his ego-dominated business style into this campaign on what for him is the new terrain of politics; that contrary to what some have opined, he has long viewed walking away as a serious option; and that if his chances of winning fall low enough, that's what he will do. He had the army vote in the bag; now he's scoffed not just at bereaved parents but at the parents of a fallen soldier. And increasing numbers of people are watching how he mocked a journalist's disability. Whatever one's view of climate change or NATO or illegal immigration, this guy is a big-time scumbag with serious self-control problems. He's going to see the writing on the wall, I think, and it may be quite soon.
He will not walk away, especially before the debates as he would be even more humiliated than if he lost in a landslide. By the end of the debates his name will be on the state ballots anyway
@PCollinsTimes: Labour is 14 points behind the Tories. The worst of it that the poll surely overstates Labour's support. They won't poll 28. Nowhere near.
Low 20s I suspect, bearing in mind that these are polls about a hypothetical vote tomorrow, rather than after a five week GE campaign in which Corbyn and the left fantasists, fellow travellers who have absolutely no policy ideas (see Danny Blanchflower in Guardian), have been hammered day in, day out.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago Dear Corbynites. Labour isn't 14 points behind May "because of the coup". It's because people don't like Corbyn. Honestly. It's that simple.
Why does Dan put his name inside THREE sets of parentheses??!
Andrew Buncombe at the Independent has finally twigged that Trump may drop out.
The Betfair markets in Kasich, Cruz, Pence and Ryan (but not in Rubio and Bush) are becoming more lively.
If Trump (or Clinton) dies or drops out - what is the procedure for a new candidate?
Are you thinking of having a whip-round to hire a hitman? If so, who is being targeted, or is it both?
No! But having read Donald Trump's Art of the Deal and some of his other scribblings, I am of the view that he is putting a great deal of his ego-dominated business style into this campaign on what for him is the new terrain of politics; that contrary to what some have opined, he has long viewed walking away as a serious option; and that if his chances of winning fall low enough, that's what he will do. He had the army vote in the bag; now he's scoffed not just at bereaved parents but at the parents of a fallen soldier. And increasing numbers of people are watching how he mocked a journalist's disability. Whatever one's view of climate change or NATO or illegal immigration, this guy is a big-time scumbag with serious self-control problems. He's going to see the writing on the wall, I think, and it may be quite soon.
He will not walk away, especially before the debates as he would be even more humiliated than if he lost in a landslide. By the end of the debates his name will be on the state ballots anyway
Who the hell can say. This guy is a full on nut job. He could resign tomorrow and say the whole thing was an advert for one of his gold courses.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago Dear Corbynites. Labour isn't 14 points behind May "because of the coup". It's because people don't like Corbyn. Honestly. It's that simple.
Why does Dan put his name inside THREE sets of parentheses??!
Andrew Buncombe at the Independent has finally twigged that Trump may drop out.
The Betfair markets in Kasich, Cruz, Pence and Ryan (but not in Rubio and Bush) are becoming more lively.
If Trump (or Clinton) dies or drops out - what is the procedure for a new candidate?
Are you thinking of having a whip-round to hire a hitman? If so, who is being targeted, or is it both?
No! But having read Donald Trump's Art of the Deal and some of his other scribblings, I am of the view that he is putting a great deal of his ego-dominated business style into this campaign on what for him is the new terrain of politics; that contrary to what some have opined, he has long viewed walking away as a serious option; and that if his chances of winning fall low enough, that's what he will do. He had the army vote in the bag; now he's scoffed not just at bereaved parents but at the parents of a fallen soldier. And increasing numbers of people are watching how he mocked a journalist's disability. Whatever one's view of climate change or NATO or illegal immigration, this guy is a big-time scumbag with serious self-control problems. He's going to see the writing on the wall, I think, and it may be quite soon.
He will not walk away, especially before the debates as he would be even more humiliated than if he lost in a landslide. By the end of the debates his name will be on the state ballots anyway
Who the hell can say. This guy is a full on nut job. He could resign tomorrow and say the whole thing was an advert for one of his gold courses.
If he drops out the only thing Trump will be selling is chicken!
I wonder how long the honeymoon will last. And if this is a low ebb for Labour, there are worse floors of support.
Low ebb for Labour? They have remained static (and I still think they will get about 28% of the vote in 2020). This poll with Conservatives up 2 and UKIP down 1 is, I think, just noise. Most polls are/
That was my point - their low ebb seems to be static at around 27-29%, since despite all this that's about as low as it seems to go.
Which is more or less where Labour was in March this year. Amazing when you think of everything that has happened since.
Jim Waterson @jimwaterson 27m27 minutes ago Jim Waterson Retweeted Britain Elects Tories are on FORTY TWO PERCENT while in government and during a national political crisis their referendum created.
If Labour keep Corbyn it is conceivable Labour would get 25 and the Tories 45. Total Tory landslide, Labour near annihilation.
We will become Japan, China or Singapore, with permanent one party hegemony. There are worse fates.
At this rate Theresa May will be in office longer than the Queen and King Charles
I wonder how long the honeymoon will last. And if this is a low ebb for Labour, there are worse floors of support.
Low ebb for Labour? They have remained static (and I still think they will get about 28% of the vote in 2020). This poll with Conservatives up 2 and UKIP down 1 is, I think, just noise. Most polls are/
That was my point - their low ebb seems to be static at around 27-29%, since despite all this that's about as low as it seems to go.
Which is more or less where Labour was in March this year. Amazing when you think of everything that has happened since.
It's as much down to a lack of alternatives as anything else. Under Brown, Labour polled in the low 20s for quite a while during and shortly after the expenses scandal. However, with UKIP, the Lib Dems and Greens making no great effort at the moment to eat into Labour's vote - or having strong structural reasons why it's hard for them to do so - Labour's currently bumping along the ceiling.
@GovGaryJohnson's on the cusp of 15% to get into debates, even after the conventions.
If he gets in the debates, all bets are off. It could easily be like lib dems surge of 2010. Not because he is a great candidate but he isn't hiliary or trump.
I wonder how long the honeymoon will last. And if this is a low ebb for Labour, there are worse floors of support.
Low ebb for Labour? They have remained static (and I still think they will get about 28% of the vote in 2020). This poll with Conservatives up 2 and UKIP down 1 is, I think, just noise. Most polls are/
That was my point - their low ebb seems to be static at around 27-29%, since despite all this that's about as low as it seems to go.
Sorry, Mr. Kle4, I misunderstood your post. You are I think correct. No matter who is in charge, what idiocies they come out with, labour never seems to go below the 27% share.. That seems to have been true since 1983, I don't see why it should change over the next four years.
Quite what that means in seat terms I don't know, but I very much doubt they will lose very many even after the new boundaries have been implemented.
Labour will push down into the early 20s with Corbyn in 2020 imho.
Golly, that seems very pessimistic, if I may say so, Mr. Borough. That sort of result would imply the collapse of the tribalist vote would it not? I see no evidence for that, at least as yet. Furthermore where else would core Labour voters go? Not bothering I suppose, which would seem to make no sense, at least to me.
I can see it collapsing to lower than 20% if UKIP is able to get its act together and go after the WC in Northern and Midlands traditional Labour constituencies. If UKIP are sensible, they'll target all the Labour seats that voted Leave. By then, UKIP being sensible seems as likely as Labour doing the same.
Jim Waterson @jimwaterson 27m27 minutes ago Jim Waterson Retweeted Britain Elects Tories are on FORTY TWO PERCENT while in government and during a national political crisis their referendum created.
If Labour keep Corbyn it is conceivable Labour would get 25 and the Tories 45. Total Tory landslide, Labour near annihilation.
We will become Japan, China or Singapore, with permanent one party hegemony. There are worse fates.
I am consistently amazed at the first example. How on earth can the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (not to be confused with the Liberal Party or Democratic Party) have only been out of power for one 11 month period and one 3 year period in the last 60 years while, to my knowledge, being democratic? No one is that competent and popular, no one has that feeble an opposition, how is it possible even with the most sclerotic politics and electorate imaginable?
@GovGaryJohnson's on the cusp of 15% to get into debates, even after the conventions.
If he gets in the debates, all bets are off. It could easily be like lib dems surge of 2010. Not because he is a great candidate but he isn't hiliary or trump.
If he gets in they should open a market on the number of 'I agree with Gary's.
Comments
The RNC would choose Trump's replacement, but Trump would have to agree to resign first.
However the only way Trump's replacement is not dead on arrival (half of the GOP voters are Trump fanatics) would be if it where someone from the Trump family (my proposal is Ivanka Trump) that takes over the nomination.
Any replacement of Trump who doesn't have the surname Trump is doomed for practical political reasons.
http://www.khandapoppy.org/
There are versions of the poppy cross with similar designs as well as other religious symbols.
Phil Shiner is accused by legal regulators of knowing about the bribes which were allegedly disguised as expenses and then submitted as legal aid claims funded by the taxpayer.
Mr Shiner's law firm has brought more than 1,000 allegations against British soldiers, some of whom have been pursued through the courts and had their lives ruined.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/03/top-lawyer-facing-criminal-inquiry-over-bribes-paid-to-iraqis-br/
I carried on, though, researching Brighton's involvement and connection with the Indian troops and it is a fascinating story in its own right on so many levels. One day I will write it all up.
Election Data @election_data
Some reports that the Gambling Commission investigating unusual betting activity on markets relating to the Next UKIP Leader.
8:37 PM - 3 Aug 2016
Edit - a quick google reveals that she did accept donations from them.
Does that make her guilty of receiving stolen goods?!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/12088522/Emily-Thornberry-attended-Leigh-Day-Christmas-party-despite-allegations-the-firm-hounded-British-troops.html
Edit: Did she also get money from these other [censored]?
But only if they select a Trump family member, otherwise there is great risk of fist fights between the Trump delegates and everyone else.
Q: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump alone in lifeboat in the middle of the Ocean. Who survives?
A: America!
(Fairly sure I pinched it from someone on here)
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/02/who-gets-keep-voters/
@darrenrovell: BREAKING: Nike announces it is ending its golf equipment business. No more clubs, balls or bags. Business just way to challenging.
CON 42 (+2)
LAB 28 (=)
LD 8 (=)
UKIP 12 (-1)
Fieldwork 1st-2nd August
N=1,722 https://t.co/dFIfnYTXOG
http://www.vox.com/2016/8/2/12341670/what-should-bill-clinton-s-title-be-if-hillary-clinton-is-elected-president
I hate to think how much tigers fall from grace cost them.
Cons winning seats they've never won, like Newcastle under Lyme, Walsall North, NE Derbyshire, or rarely won, like Bridgend, yet former strongholds like Leeds NE, or Brighton Pavilion, let alone Scotland, are out of reach.
Where as tour players go out and actively use callaway & titleiest whatever their sponsor deal is.
Corbyn 'He is a protestor not a leader', 'He represents the common people because he is a common person'
On Eagle 'I would prefer Eddie the Eagle'
On Smith 'The man's a lunatic'
Corbyn is not disadvantaged, he is the front runner, and the opprobrium he has received in the mainstream press is really a hundred per cent his own fault. When even the neutral BBC and the left-leaning Guardian – employer of his current, hard-left press spokesman, remember – starts being labelled anti-Corbyn, it’s because you’re doing something wrong.
Your continuing support for him is not only sentimental in the face of strong evidence against doing so, but it is a self-indulgence which is now threatening the very future of your party. It is not the time for protesting and sticking it to the man. This leader cannot win an election and, worse, he is busy refashioning the party in such a way that no future leader will ever have the means to, either. And if you think mass deselections in the PLP is really going to help us win the next election, you are already lost to reason.
In short, the party is dividing into two factions: Labour and Corbyn-Labour. The latter of these is fast becoming not merely a cult of personality, but a political death cult
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2016/08/03/an-honest-letter-to-labour-members/#more-21023
ABC News are reporting that "Senior GOP Officials (are) Exploring Options if Trump Drops Out.
Quite what that means in seat terms I don't know, but I very much doubt they will lose very many even after the new boundaries have been implemented.
Ryan
Pence
Kasich
Cruz
Ryan and Pence do seem to be up to something. But Kasich and Cruz are the only two of the four who didn't endorse Trump!
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/08/03/fox-news-poll-voters-trust-trump-on-economy-clinton-on-nukes.html
Dear Corbynites. Labour isn't 14 points behind May "because of the coup". It's because people don't like Corbyn. Honestly. It's that simple.
Jim Waterson Retweeted Britain Elects
Tories are on FORTY TWO PERCENT while in government and during a national political crisis their referendum created.
@alberttrigg: Thanks for that Dan
So simple
One man
Corbyn
Same leader who was level/ahead pre-coup https://t.co/9HArVCI9Uf
@MSmithsonPB: On this day in Ed Miliband leadership, Aug 3 2011, YouGov had LAB on 44% - 9 ahead of the Tories.
At this rate, the Tories could have way more than that...
He takes no pleasure in winding up Corbynistas, NONE WHATSOEVER
"A sex-toy smeared in peanut butter would have routed John Major in 1997."
"Harold Wilson in 1964, Margaret Thatcher in 1979 and Tony Blair, in 1997, all swept to power on the back of their opponents’ collapse."
https://sciscomedia.co.uk/can-keep-new-labour-luke-akehurst/
Clinton 44%
Trump 35%
Johnson 12%
@GovGaryJohnson's on the cusp of 15% to get into debates, even after the conventions.
The stupid thing is if Trump just ran a normal campaign based around a really populist economic message he would win easily.