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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Diane James becomes new favourite for the UKIP leadership following more revelations about Steven Woofe

UKIP leadership frontrunner
–Wasn't UKIP member for a year
–Didn't submit nomination on time
–Failed to disclose drink drive ban
Going well.

Read the full story here

Sandpit

First like Diane James?

FrancisUrquhart

What I want to know was what was a mid 30s lawyer (I believe with a hedge fund?) doing riding around on a scooter, like a drunken deliveroo delivery person?

Speedy

FrancisUrquhart said:

What I want to know was what was a mid 30s lawyer (I believe with a hedge fund?) doing riding around on a scooter, like a drunken deliveroo delivery person?

I've seen worse.

IanB2

How annoying, Diane was the person I thought right from the outset should get the job, but for some reason I believed she wouldn't stand so wasn't worth backing.

FrancisUrquhart

Speedy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What I want to know was what was a mid 30s lawyer (I believe with a hedge fund?) doing riding around on a scooter, like a drunken deliveroo delivery person?

I've seen worse.

Speeding around in a sports car I can definitely see, but a scooter?

Ishmael_X

Fpt the beach of electoral law is at least on a par with Creases Huhne's indiscretion, and will be his downfall.

Sandpit

Do we know if he told the Bar Association, and if not whether the conviction would have cost him his job if he'd mentioned it?

Speedy

What we know about Diane James is that she looks good on TV, had her place in the sun for a short while 3 years ago, and OGH likes her very much.

But we don't even know if she is a candidate.
Let's wait until tomorrow too see what the names are.

IanB2

Defo IMO he put his papers in late, knowing he couldn't face the exposure and hoping that as an ex-candidate it would blow over

Speedy

FrancisUrquhart said:

Speedy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What I want to know was what was a mid 30s lawyer (I believe with a hedge fund?) doing riding around on a scooter, like a drunken deliveroo delivery person?

I've seen worse.

Speeding around in a sports car I can definitely see, but a scooter?

You mean how is it possible to be speeding with a scooter ?

Now that's a Top Gear challenge.

Ishmael_X

Sandpit said:

Do we know if he told the Bar Association, and if not whether the conviction would have cost him his job if he'd mentioned it?

It's the bar council, and they won't mind the conviction and I imagine would wait to see if anyone prosecuted him over the electoral law point.

Wulfrun_Phil

FPT

stodge said:

Evening all

The nightmare for the Conservatives would be a Labour split and the development of a non-socialist party of the centre or centre left. This wouldn't be because of the Labour MPs and activists who would join it or even the few Conservatives it might tempt but (as was the case with the SDP) the large number of previously inactive people who would join and support such a party.

So many of those who joined the SDP in 1981-82 weren't members of a party but considered the SDP something they wanted to be part of. Politically green as grass but not lacking in enthusiasm, they would be a far more potent threat than anything Labour, UKIP or the LDs can currently manage.

Will it happen ? It might but not now - it might take another 12 months or more as setting up a new party isn't easy especially for those who have spent decades in other parties.

The 2017 County Council elections will be most informative - the 2018 London locals arguably more so.

That appears to be quite likely as a longer term scenario, if Corbyn wins and there is no subsequent reconciliation with an increasingly independent PLP. It would require some sort of accommodation with the Lib-Dems. However, I don't think it's a serious prospect until after the next general election and the electoral disaster that beckons for Labour. Even then, I think the Conservatives' would still be favourites and so "nightmare" is overstating it. By 2025, you could well see shares of the vote roughly in the proportions of Con 35%, Centrist Coalition 30%, Labour (what's left of it) 15%, UKIP 15%, Others 5%.

For all the venom directed against Blair by Corbyn supporters, and their absurd labelling of everyone and anyone who can see through Corbyn as "Blairite", it's worth recalling that such an outcome of a powerful centre party grouping is precisely what Blair worked for but was ultimately unable to deliver. Corbyn could well deliver it, and thus really could turn out to be Blair's useful idiot, destroying in the process any remaining prospects of the left in British politics. That I think is what Owen Jones meant when he concluded that "The situation is extremely grave and unless satisfactory answers are offered, we are nothing but the accomplices of the very people we oppose."

FrancisUrquhart

Speedy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Speedy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What I want to know was what was a mid 30s lawyer (I believe with a hedge fund?) doing riding around on a scooter, like a drunken deliveroo delivery person?

I've seen worse.

Speeding around in a sports car I can definitely see, but a scooter?

You mean how is it possible to be speeding with a scooter ?

Now that's a Top Gear challenge.

More what a successful 30 something is doing on a scooter in the first place. I always think of them being used by teenagers & delivery people.

Artist

It's strange that UKIP didn't give Diane James a winnable seat in the last General Election, maybe she enjoys being a MEP.

surbiton

The UKIP shenanigans is making Labour looking very stable !

FrancisUrquhart

Panorama being rather poor explaining north Koreans access to pc / internet. It is know how it works & it is actually a lot worse than no access to bbc website.

Alanbrooke

LOL

so UKIP looks like being more "progressive" than Labour

Parties with female leaders - Cons, SNP, Plaid, Greens, DUP now UKIP ?

Parties without - Labour, LDs

Alanbrooke

surbiton said:

The UKIP shenanigans is making Labour looking very stable !

Labour ,you literally have to have balls to be the leader

John_M

Alanbrooke said:

LOL

so UKIP looks like being more "progressive" than Labour

Parties with female leaders - Cons, SNP, Plaid, Greens, DUP now UKIP ?

Parties without - Labour, LDs

Judging by the Twitter hate, both Labour and UKIP now see having actual MPs as something to be ashamed of.

Charles

FrancisUrquhart said:

Speedy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What I want to know was what was a mid 30s lawyer (I believe with a hedge fund?) doing riding around on a scooter, like a drunken deliveroo delivery person?

I've seen worse.

Speeding around in a sports car I can definitely see, but a scooter?

My Dad was once arrested for speeding on a pedal bike.

Overtaking a panda car may have been a bad idea...

GIN1138

Diane James, Theresa May and Nicola Sturgeon - Sisters Doing It For Themselves!

John_M

GIN1138 said:

Diane James, Theresa May and Nicola Sturgeon - Sisters Doing It For Themselves!

Natalie Bennett is still leader of the Greens right?

tlg86

FPT

Charles said:

John_M said:

For you. Nigel gets to the NEC part at the end of the article.

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/08/01/ukip-needs-to-play-the-long-game-and-bypass-the-total-amateurs-on-the-national-executive-committee/

Thanks

Our first breakthrough came when three of us, including myself and Jeffrey Titford, were elected as Ukip MEPs in the European Parliament in 1999.

Who's been written out of history?

Michael Homes:

http://tinyurl.com/jf782s4

Charles

John_M said:

GIN1138 said:

Diane James, Theresa May and Nicola Sturgeon - Sisters Doing It For Themselves!

Natalie Bennett is still leader of the Greens right?

And don't forget that nice Welsh lady who only gets on Question Time instead of Owen Smith because she's a woman. Nothing to do with her being the leader of a political party.

JackW

Nevada - Rasmussen/KTNV

Clinton 41 .. Trump 40

http://www.ktnv.com/news/political/new-ktnvrasmussen-poll-shows-post-dnc-narrow-lead-for-hillary-clinton-over-donald-trump?mc_cid=36c3591d7c&mc_eid=dcfe8daff0

John_M

Charles said:

John_M said:

GIN1138 said:

Diane James, Theresa May and Nicola Sturgeon - Sisters Doing It For Themselves!

Natalie Bennett is still leader of the Greens right?

And don't forget that nice Welsh lady who only gets on Question Time instead of Owen Smith because she's a woman. Nothing to do with her being the leader of a political party.

Sorry. So many chicks. Hard to remember names, amirite?

TwistedFireStopper

Labour tearing themselves apart trying to decide which white, heterosexual, misogynistic "normal" male they want to have as leader!
You can feel the despair of Labour women as they look on.
Time to break the "This is what a feminist looks like" t shirts out.

IanB2

Apart from a very marginal uptick for the LibDems, the polls are now simply back where they were in March of this year, before Osborne's budget.

peter_from_putney

Surely, Woolfe should withdraw from the contest shouldn't he? Or don't standards in Public Life count for anything at all these days?

As a lawyer, he really shouldn't need prompting to take the correct course of action here. I just have a sneaking suspicion that the delay in submitting his nomination papers may not have been 100% accidental.

rottenborough

John_M said:

GIN1138 said:

Diane James, Theresa May and Nicola Sturgeon - Sisters Doing It For Themselves!

Natalie Bennett is still leader of the Greens right?

Voting is taking place this month for her replacement.

foxinsoxuk

Artist said:

It's strange that UKIP didn't give Diane James a winnable seat in the last General Election, maybe she enjoys being a MEP.

Didn't she say she did not want the leadership last time out?

AnneJGP

TwistedFireStopper said:

Labour tearing themselves apart trying to decide which white, heterosexual, misogynistic "normal" male they want to have as leader!
You can feel the despair of Labour women as they look on.
Time to break the "This is what a feminist looks like" t shirts out.

I often wonder what female Labour professional activists are thinking, when they devote themselves to a political party that in practice sets such little store by them.

If it's helping the disadvantaged, there are other ways of doing that which hold out much greater hopes of being allowed to fulfil potential. One could have a career in another field and support the party just as well.

And yet, they manifestly share the love of, and devotion to, the Labour party that @SouthamObserver (I think) was describing on here earlier today. Why?

weejonnie

JackW said:

Nevada - Rasmussen/KTNV

Clinton 41 .. Trump 40

http://www.ktnv.com/news/political/new-ktnvrasmussen-poll-shows-post-dnc-narrow-lead-for-hillary-clinton-over-donald-trump?mc_cid=36c3591d7c&mc_eid=dcfe8daff0

Not so big a bounce for Crooked Hillary. Maybe the links to her Russian supporters are bearing fruit.

Speedy

JackW said:

Nevada - Rasmussen/KTNV

Clinton 41 .. Trump 40

http://www.ktnv.com/news/political/new-ktnvrasmussen-poll-shows-post-dnc-narrow-lead-for-hillary-clinton-over-donald-trump?mc_cid=36c3591d7c&mc_eid=dcfe8daff0

How many times have I said do not never ever take Rasmussen polls into any account.

John_M

peter_from_putney said:

Surely, Woolfe should withdraw from the contest shouldn't he? Or don't standards in Public Life count for anything at all these days?

As a lawyer, he really shouldn't need prompting to take the correct course of action here. I just have a sneaking suspicion that the delay in submitting his nomination papers may not have been 100% accidental.

You'd think so, wouldn't you? Perhaps he's going to be disqualified on a technicality tomorrow. That would save face.

John_M

AnneJGP said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Labour tearing themselves apart trying to decide which white, heterosexual, misogynistic "normal" male they want to have as leader!
You can feel the despair of Labour women as they look on.
Time to break the "This is what a feminist looks like" t shirts out.

I often wonder what female Labour professional activists are thinking, when they devote themselves to a political party that in practice sets such little store by them.

If it's helping the disadvantaged, there are other ways of doing that which hold out much greater hopes of being allowed to fulfil potential. One could have a career in another field and support the party just as well.

And yet, they manifestly share the love of, and devotion to, the Labour party that @SouthamObserver (I think) was describing on here earlier today. Why?

To outsiders, it's incomprehensible. I'll have to defer to one of the Labour party members.

Pong

weejonnie said:

JackW said:

Nevada - Rasmussen/KTNV

Clinton 41 .. Trump 40

http://www.ktnv.com/news/political/new-ktnvrasmussen-poll-shows-post-dnc-narrow-lead-for-hillary-clinton-over-donald-trump?mc_cid=36c3591d7c&mc_eid=dcfe8daff0

Not so big a bounce for Crooked Hillary. Maybe the links to her Russian supporters are bearing fruit.

Previous Rasmussen/KTNV Nevada poll (22-24/7) was Trump 43 Clinton 38

That's a respectable bounce for Clinton.

EPG

AnneJGP said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Labour tearing themselves apart trying to decide which white, heterosexual, misogynistic "normal" male they want to have as leader!
You can feel the despair of Labour women as they look on.
Time to break the "This is what a feminist looks like" t shirts out.

I often wonder what female Labour professional activists are thinking, when they devote themselves to a political party that in practice sets such little store by them.

If it's helping the disadvantaged, there are other ways of doing that which hold out much greater hopes of being allowed to fulfil potential. One could have a career in another field and support the party just as well.

And yet, they manifestly share the love of, and devotion to, the Labour party that @SouthamObserver (I think) was describing on here earlier today. Why?

Why do people here love the Conservative Party even when it elects leaders like Cameron that they despise? It is because control of Her Majesty's Government is important for all sorts of reasons that transcend what one person alone can do to move society toward one's favoured outcomes, and there are two, reasonably distinct options if you are interested in that.

Thrak

Probably the most damning part of the CBS poll (first time trying to embed a tweet, hope it works!) EDIT: Hmm, looks okay but not like a tweet.

Trump's support among self-ID'd conservatives in our @CBSNewsPoll is at 64%.
Bush in '04 exits - 84%
McCain in '08 - 78%
Romney in '12 -82%

— Steven Portnoy (@stevenportnoy) August 1, 2016

peter_from_putney

Speedy said:

What we know about Diane James is that she looks good on TV, had her place in the sun for a short while 3 years ago, and OGH likes her very much.

But we don't even know if she is a candidate.
Let's wait until tomorrow too see what the names are.

Mike is a happily married man! Just because he has often featured a female hand with purple nails, posting ballot papers into a Bedford pillar box, you shouldn't assume that said hand belongs to Diane James.

MikeSmithson

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/760210247306928129

MikeSmithson

peter_from_putney said:

Speedy said:

What we know about Diane James is that she looks good on TV, had her place in the sun for a short while 3 years ago, and OGH likes her very much.

But we don't even know if she is a candidate.
Let's wait until tomorrow too see what the names are.

Mike is a happily married man! Just because he has often featured a female hand with purple nails, posting ballot papers into a Bedford pillar box, you shouldn't assume that said hand belongs to Diane James.

That hand was of my younger daughter.

weejonnie

Pong said:

weejonnie said:

JackW said:

Nevada - Rasmussen/KTNV

Clinton 41 .. Trump 40

http://www.ktnv.com/news/political/new-ktnvrasmussen-poll-shows-post-dnc-narrow-lead-for-hillary-clinton-over-donald-trump?mc_cid=36c3591d7c&mc_eid=dcfe8daff0

Not so big a bounce for Crooked Hillary. Maybe the links to her Russian supporters are bearing fruit.

Previous Rasmussen/KTNV Nevada poll (22-24/7) was Trump 43 Clinton 38

That's a respectable bounce for Clinton.

2.5% - what is the MOE?

stjohn

peter_from_putney said:

Speedy said:

What we know about Diane James is that she looks good on TV, had her place in the sun for a short while 3 years ago, and OGH likes her very much.

But we don't even know if she is a candidate.
Let's wait until tomorrow too see what the names are.

Mike is a happily married man! Just because he has often featured a female hand with purple nails, posting ballot papers into a Bedford pillar box, you shouldn't assume that said hand belongs to Diane James.

Peter. Our bet on Lisa Duffy isn't looking too solid at the moment. Not much Betfair confidence behind her. But at least she's a declared runner whereas that's not yet clear for Diane James. Betfair "says" Diane James is a definite runner. All will be clarified tomorrow.

TheWhiteRabbit

rottenborough said:

John_M said:

GIN1138 said:

Diane James, Theresa May and Nicola Sturgeon - Sisters Doing It For Themselves!

Natalie Bennett is still leader of the Greens right?

Voting is taking place this month for her replacement.

It's a compulsory rotation. Can you imagine the fun if Labour had a re-election frequently... oh, wait...

peter_from_putney

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/760210247306928129

Like I pointed out down thread, it's possible to back Labour to win most seats at the next GE at odds of 5.6 (5.37 net) with Betfair.

dodrade

Artist said:

It's strange that UKIP didn't give Diane James a winnable seat in the last General Election, maybe she enjoys being a MEP.

Given the circumstances she has little choice now but to make a career change.

If we aren't out by May 2019 will the European Elections go ahead?

Pong

weejonnie said:

Pong said:

weejonnie said:

JackW said:

Nevada - Rasmussen/KTNV

Clinton 41 .. Trump 40

http://www.ktnv.com/news/political/new-ktnvrasmussen-poll-shows-post-dnc-narrow-lead-for-hillary-clinton-over-donald-trump?mc_cid=36c3591d7c&mc_eid=dcfe8daff0

Not so big a bounce for Crooked Hillary. Maybe the links to her Russian supporters are bearing fruit.

Previous Rasmussen/KTNV Nevada poll (22-24/7) was Trump 43 Clinton 38

That's a respectable bounce for Clinton.

2.5% - what is the MOE?

Previous poll Trump +1
This poll Clinton +5

BTW, MOE is margin of error.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error

Anyway, that's a decent bounce -and evident in states that matter.

Not tempted to lay off my Clinton position.

peter_from_putney

stjohn said:

peter_from_putney said:

Speedy said:

What we know about Diane James is that she looks good on TV, had her place in the sun for a short while 3 years ago, and OGH likes her very much.

But we don't even know if she is a candidate.
Let's wait until tomorrow too see what the names are.

Mike is a happily married man! Just because he has often featured a female hand with purple nails, posting ballot papers into a Bedford pillar box, you shouldn't assume that said hand belongs to Diane James.

Peter. Our bet on Lisa Duffy isn't looking too solid at the moment. Not much Betfair confidence behind her. But at least she's a declared runner whereas that's not yet clear for Diane James. Betfair "says" Diane James is a definite runner. All will be clarified tomorrow.

Didn't I mention that I also backed Diane James yesterday, when the whole thing was going pear-shaped for Woolfe? ...... I think I got odds of around 14/1.

AnneJGP

EPG said:

AnneJGP said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Labour tearing themselves apart trying to decide which white, heterosexual, misogynistic "normal" male they want to have as leader!
You can feel the despair of Labour women as they look on.
Time to break the "This is what a feminist looks like" t shirts out.

I often wonder what female Labour professional activists are thinking, when they devote themselves to a political party that in practice sets such little store by them.

If it's helping the disadvantaged, there are other ways of doing that which hold out much greater hopes of being allowed to fulfil potential. One could have a career in another field and support the party just as well.

And yet, they manifestly share the love of, and devotion to, the Labour party that @SouthamObserver (I think) was describing on here earlier today. Why?

Why do people here love the Conservative Party even when it elects leaders like Cameron that they despise? It is because control of Her Majesty's Government is important for all sorts of reasons that transcend what one person alone can do to move society toward one's favoured outcomes, and there are two, reasonably distinct options if you are interested in that.

I'm not so sure that people do love the Conservative party the way people love the Labour party.

Even if they do, it still seems strange to me that any woman, looking both to support the Labour party and engage in a professional career, should opt to invest in a career in the party, where she is doomed to frustration of talent & ambition.

Much more sensible to engage in a career in some related field and support the party in its efforts as a highly-respected professional in that other chosen field.

I surmise that, having become involved in the party at a young enough age, such women are blinded to the solid track record in that area.

Jobabob

Some very poor polling for Trump post convention.

If you'd spend any time on here a week or two back you'd have been forgiven for thinking he'd already won!!

John_M

AnneJGP said:

EPG said:

AnneJGP said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Labour tearing themselves apart trying to decide which white, heterosexual, misogynistic "normal" male they want to have as leader!
You can feel the despair of Labour women as they look on.
Time to break the "This is what a feminist looks like" t shirts out.

I often wonder what female Labour professional activists are thinking, when they devote themselves to a political party that in practice sets such little store by them.

If it's helping the disadvantaged, there are other ways of doing that which hold out much greater hopes of being allowed to fulfil potential. One could have a career in another field and support the party just as well.

And yet, they manifestly share the love of, and devotion to, the Labour party that @SouthamObserver (I think) was describing on here earlier today. Why?

Why do people here love the Conservative Party even when it elects leaders like Cameron that they despise? It is because control of Her Majesty's Government is important for all sorts of reasons that transcend what one person alone can do to move society toward one's favoured outcomes, and there are two, reasonably distinct options if you are interested in that.

I'm not so sure that people do love the Conservative party the way people love the Labour party.

Even if they do, it still seems strange to me that any woman, looking both to support the Labour party and engage in a professional career, should opt to invest in a career in the party, where she is doomed to frustration of talent & ambition.

Much more sensible to engage in a career in some related field and support the party in its efforts as a highly-respected professional in that other chosen field.

I surmise that, having become involved in the party at a young enough age, such women are blinded to the solid track record in that area.

I'll back you up on this one. As the Conservative party is ostensibly pragmatic (bar Europe where it can be completely crazy), it's very hard to love. I've never heard anyone bar a Tory politician express love of party (possibly TSE?). We're far more likely to express our love of country.

Labour's internationalism means that while many are patriotic, it doesn't receive quite the same emphasis.

stjohn

peter_from_putney said:

stjohn said:

peter_from_putney said:

Speedy said:

What we know about Diane James is that she looks good on TV, had her place in the sun for a short while 3 years ago, and OGH likes her very much.

But we don't even know if she is a candidate.
Let's wait until tomorrow too see what the names are.

Mike is a happily married man! Just because he has often featured a female hand with purple nails, posting ballot papers into a Bedford pillar box, you shouldn't assume that said hand belongs to Diane James.

Peter. Our bet on Lisa Duffy isn't looking too solid at the moment. Not much Betfair confidence behind her. But at least she's a declared runner whereas that's not yet clear for Diane James. Betfair "says" Diane James is a definite runner. All will be clarified tomorrow.

Didn't I mention that I also backed Diane James yesterday, when the whole thing was going pear-shaped for Woolfe? ...... I think I got odds of around 14/1.

I didn't see that. Great bet! Looking good .....

ThreeQuidder

EPG said:

AnneJGP said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Labour tearing themselves apart trying to decide which white, heterosexual, misogynistic "normal" male they want to have as leader!
You can feel the despair of Labour women as they look on.
Time to break the "This is what a feminist looks like" t shirts out.

I often wonder what female Labour professional activists are thinking, when they devote themselves to a political party that in practice sets such little store by them.

If it's helping the disadvantaged, there are other ways of doing that which hold out much greater hopes of being allowed to fulfil potential. One could have a career in another field and support the party just as well.

And yet, they manifestly share the love of, and devotion to, the Labour party that @SouthamObserver (I think) was describing on here earlier today. Why?

Why do people here love the Conservative Party even when it elects leaders like Cameron that they despise?

Few Tories love their party in the same way that many Labourites love theirs.

JackW

Speedy said:

JackW said:

Nevada - Rasmussen/KTNV

Clinton 41 .. Trump 40

http://www.ktnv.com/news/political/new-ktnvrasmussen-poll-shows-post-dnc-narrow-lead-for-hillary-clinton-over-donald-trump?mc_cid=36c3591d7c&mc_eid=dcfe8daff0

How many times have I said do not never ever take Rasmussen polls into any account.

Seasoned PBers know my views on Rasmussen but I post all polls I find, with a link, and site followers may decide for themselves the merits therein.

GIN1138

JackW said:

Speedy said:

JackW said:

Nevada - Rasmussen/KTNV

Clinton 41 .. Trump 40

http://www.ktnv.com/news/political/new-ktnvrasmussen-poll-shows-post-dnc-narrow-lead-for-hillary-clinton-over-donald-trump?mc_cid=36c3591d7c&mc_eid=dcfe8daff0

How many times have I said do not never ever take Rasmussen polls into any account.

Seasoned PBers know my views on Rasmussen but I post all polls I find, with a link, and site followers may decide for themselves the merits therein.

I suppose you have to have something to do when Mrs Jack W is off with her gold card and and your ARSE is firmly closed for business...

HYUFD

James would be OK but she is from a middle class background and was raised in Ken, went to Rochester Grammar School and was a councillor in Surrey. She would help UKIP in some lower middle class Kent and Essex seats and areas like Eastleigh where she was a candidate but I don't think she would have the same appeal in Northern and working class Labour seats as Wolfe, who was raised in Moss Side and whose brother was a professional footballer. I also don't think these 'allegations' about him will have much traction beyond the liberal media

JackW

GIN1138 said:

I suppose you have to have something to do when Mrs Jack W is off with her gold card and and your ARSE is firmly closed for business...

A smidgeon of truth there .... although I was let out to go to Lords last Thursday .... Lourdes might have been more useful though !! ....

HYUFD

peter_from_putney said:

Surely, Woolfe should withdraw from the contest shouldn't he? Or don't standards in Public Life count for anything at all these days?

As a lawyer, he really shouldn't need prompting to take the correct course of action here. I just have a sneaking suspicion that the delay in submitting his nomination papers may not have been 100% accidental.

George W Bush had a drink driving conviction and it did not stop him winning 2 presidential elections, even if it cost him a little with evangelical voters in the 1st (and UKIP does not need to win the religious right to the same extent as the GOP)

HYUFD

weejonnie said:

JackW said:

Nevada - Rasmussen/KTNV

Clinton 41 .. Trump 40

http://www.ktnv.com/news/political/new-ktnvrasmussen-poll-shows-post-dnc-narrow-lead-for-hillary-clinton-over-donald-trump?mc_cid=36c3591d7c&mc_eid=dcfe8daff0

Not so big a bounce for Crooked Hillary. Maybe the links to her Russian supporters are bearing fruit.

Trump led Nevada in the RCP poll average before the DNC convention

Sandpit

Ishmael_X said:

Sandpit said:

Do we know if he told the Bar Association, and if not whether the conviction would have cost him his job if he'd mentioned it?

It's the bar council, and they won't mind the conviction and I imagine would wait to see if anyone prosecuted him over the electoral law point.

Thanks. I had thought they'd probably be okay with the drink-driving offence provided it was notified to them and not dug up later, but certainly wouldn't be okay if he were to be convicted of an electoral offence.

Chris_A

With his record of ineptitude, bungling, law breaking and incompetence then Woolfe seems to the ideal candidate to run UKIP.

GIN1138

JackW said:

GIN1138 said:

I suppose you have to have something to do when Mrs Jack W is off with her gold card and and your ARSE is firmly closed for business...

A smidgeon of truth there .... although I was let out to go to Lords last Thursday .... Lourdes might have been more useful though !! ....

Still not well?

DecrepitJohnL

Pong said:

weejonnie said:

JackW said:

Nevada - Rasmussen/KTNV

Clinton 41 .. Trump 40

http://www.ktnv.com/news/political/new-ktnvrasmussen-poll-shows-post-dnc-narrow-lead-for-hillary-clinton-over-donald-trump?mc_cid=36c3591d7c&mc_eid=dcfe8daff0

Not so big a bounce for Crooked Hillary. Maybe the links to her Russian supporters are bearing fruit.

Previous Rasmussen/KTNV Nevada poll (22-24/7) was Trump 43 Clinton 38

That's a respectable bounce for Clinton.

It would be interesting to know the extent to which it was a pro-Clinton bounce, rather than an anti-Trump one, after yet another misstep by The Donald in attacking the mother of a dead soldier.

nunu

Thrak said:

Probably the most damning part of the CBS poll (first time trying to embed a tweet, hope it works!) EDIT: Hmm, looks okay but not like a tweet.

Trump's support among self-ID'd conservatives in our @CBSNewsPoll is at 64%.
Bush in '04 exits - 84%
McCain in '08 - 78%
Romney in '12 -82%

— Steven Portnoy (@stevenportnoy) August 1, 2016

He has a big lead with the key Independents group.

Pulpstar

Jobabob said:

Some very poor polling for Trump post convention.

If you'd spend any time on here a week or two back you'd have been forgiven for thinking he'd already won!!

I took @Pong advice and laid some off at 3.15. Looking good now he's drifted back to 3.6

Now to reback or hold ..

H Clinton 415
Johnson 360
Trump 558 atm

oxfordsimon

HYUFD said:

James would be OK but she is from a middle class background and was raised in Ken, went to Rochester Grammar School and was a councillor in Surrey. She would help UKIP in some lower middle class Kent and Essex seats and areas like Eastleigh where she was a candidate but I don't think she would have the same appeal in Northern and working class Labour seats as Wolfe, who was raised in Moss Side and whose brother was a professional footballer. I also don't think these 'allegations' about him will have much traction beyond the liberal media

They aren't allegations - he was convicted and failed to register it when standing for PCC - thus breaking the law. That is a fact not an allegation.

SquareRoot

Which of the UKIP candidates is likely to draw Labour voters to UKIP.?

nunu

Speedy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Speedy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What I want to know was what was a mid 30s lawyer (I believe with a hedge fund?) doing riding around on a scooter, like a drunken deliveroo delivery person?

I've seen worse.

Speeding around in a sports car I can definitely see, but a scooter?

You mean how is it possible to be speeding with a scooter ?

Now that's a Top Gear challenge.

She looks and sound too much like a tory woman tbh. She won't win nothern Labour seats imho.

Charles

John_M said:

AnneJGP said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Labour tearing themselves apart trying to decide which white, heterosexual, misogynistic "normal" male they want to have as leader!
You can feel the despair of Labour women as they look on.
Time to break the "This is what a feminist looks like" t shirts out.

I often wonder what female Labour professional activists are thinking, when they devote themselves to a political party that in practice sets such little store by them.

If it's helping the disadvantaged, there are other ways of doing that which hold out much greater hopes of being allowed to fulfil potential. One could have a career in another field and support the party just as well.

And yet, they manifestly share the love of, and devotion to, the Labour party that @SouthamObserver (I think) was describing on here earlier today. Why?

To outsiders, it's incomprehensible. I'll have to defer to one of the Labour party members.

Stockholm Syndrome?

HYUFD

SquareRoot said:

Which of the UKIP candidates is likely to draw Labour voters to UKIP.?

Woolfe, no question

Pulpstar

SquareRoot said:

Which of the UKIP candidates is likely to draw Labour voters to UKIP.?

Woolfe looked to be the strongest to do that. I suspect he's going to pull out though..

John_M

Charles said:

John_M said:

AnneJGP said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Labour tearing themselves apart trying to decide which white, heterosexual, misogynistic "normal" male they want to have as leader!
You can feel the despair of Labour women as they look on.
Time to break the "This is what a feminist looks like" t shirts out.

I often wonder what female Labour professional activists are thinking, when they devote themselves to a political party that in practice sets such little store by them.

If it's helping the disadvantaged, there are other ways of doing that which hold out much greater hopes of being allowed to fulfil potential. One could have a career in another field and support the party just as well.

And yet, they manifestly share the love of, and devotion to, the Labour party that @SouthamObserver (I think) was describing on here earlier today. Why?

To outsiders, it's incomprehensible. I'll have to defer to one of the Labour party members.

Stockholm Syndrome?

J'accuse! You are not a Labour Party member . I don't think we're allowed to pronounce on the inscrutable.

HYUFD

oxfordsimon said:

HYUFD said:

James would be OK but she is from a middle class background and was raised in Ken, went to Rochester Grammar School and was a councillor in Surrey. She would help UKIP in some lower middle class Kent and Essex seats and areas like Eastleigh where she was a candidate but I don't think she would have the same appeal in Northern and working class Labour seats as Wolfe, who was raised in Moss Side and whose brother was a professional footballer. I also don't think these 'allegations' about him will have much traction beyond the liberal media

They aren't allegations - he was convicted and failed to register it when standing for PCC - thus breaking the law. That is a fact not an allegation.

Who cares? This is politics not the selection of the head of the Judiciary. The average white working class voter UKIP needs to target will not care he failed to register that he drunk a little too much when driving when standing as a candidate for a post virtually nobody votes for!

Charles

HYUFD said:

peter_from_putney said:

Surely, Woolfe should withdraw from the contest shouldn't he? Or don't standards in Public Life count for anything at all these days?

As a lawyer, he really shouldn't need prompting to take the correct course of action here. I just have a sneaking suspicion that the delay in submitting his nomination papers may not have been 100% accidental.

George W Bush had a drink driving conviction and it did not stop him winning 2 presidential elections, even if it cost him a little with evangelical voters in the 1st (and UKIP does not need to win the religious right to the same extent as the GOP)

It's the breach of electoral law that matters, not the drink driving conviction

oxfordsimon

HYUFD said:

oxfordsimon said:

HYUFD said:

James would be OK but she is from a middle class background and was raised in Ken, went to Rochester Grammar School and was a councillor in Surrey. She would help UKIP in some lower middle class Kent and Essex seats and areas like Eastleigh where she was a candidate but I don't think she would have the same appeal in Northern and working class Labour seats as Wolfe, who was raised in Moss Side and whose brother was a professional footballer. I also don't think these 'allegations' about him will have much traction beyond the liberal media

They aren't allegations - he was convicted and failed to register it when standing for PCC - thus breaking the law. That is a fact not an allegation.

Who cares? This is politics not the selection of the head of the Judiciary. The average white working class voter UKIP needs to target will not care he failed to register that he drunk a little too much when driving and standing as a candidate for a post virtually nobody votes for!

Someone who has demonstrably broken electoral law is not fit to be leader of a Parish Council - let alone a political party

foxinsoxuk

HYUFD said:

oxfordsimon said:

HYUFD said:

James would be OK but she is from a middle class background and was raised in Ken, went to Rochester Grammar School and was a councillor in Surrey. She would help UKIP in some lower middle class Kent and Essex seats and areas like Eastleigh where she was a candidate but I don't think she would have the same appeal in Northern and working class Labour seats as Wolfe, who was raised in Moss Side and whose brother was a professional footballer. I also don't think these 'allegations' about him will have much traction beyond the liberal media

They aren't allegations - he was convicted and failed to register it when standing for PCC - thus breaking the law. That is a fact not an allegation.

Who cares? This is politics not the selection of the head of the Judiciary. The average white working class voter UKIP needs to target will not care he failed to register that he drunk a little too much when driving and standing as a candidate for a post virtually nobody votes for!

You have a pretty low opinion of UKIP voters if you think that they do not care about drunk drivers.

HYUFD

nunu said:

Thrak said:

Probably the most damning part of the CBS poll (first time trying to embed a tweet, hope it works!) EDIT: Hmm, looks okay but not like a tweet.

Trump's support among self-ID'd conservatives in our @CBSNewsPoll is at 64%.
Bush in '04 exits - 84%
McCain in '08 - 78%
Romney in '12 -82%

— Steven Portnoy (@stevenportnoy) August 1, 2016

He has a big lead with the key Independents group.

He is doing worse with independents than Romney, however he is doing better with Democrats (or the non-liberal ones) than even George W Bush

Charles

John_M said:

Charles said:

John_M said:

AnneJGP said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Labour tearing themselves apart trying to decide which white, heterosexual, misogynistic "normal" male they want to have as leader!
You can feel the despair of Labour women as they look on.
Time to break the "This is what a feminist looks like" t shirts out.

I often wonder what female Labour professional activists are thinking, when they devote themselves to a political party that in practice sets such little store by them.

If it's helping the disadvantaged, there are other ways of doing that which hold out much greater hopes of being allowed to fulfil potential. One could have a career in another field and support the party just as well.

And yet, they manifestly share the love of, and devotion to, the Labour party that @SouthamObserver (I think) was describing on here earlier today. Why?

To outsiders, it's incomprehensible. I'll have to defer to one of the Labour party members.

Stockholm Syndrome?

J'accuse! You are not a Labour Party member . I don't think we're allowed to pronounce on the inscrutable.

I care about all our fellow countrymen and women, even the Labour party members

Moses_

Another serious punch up on Downing st.

Sky's Senior Political Correspondent Sophy Ridge said the escalation of the fighting had now become "worrying".

http://news.sky.com/story/violence-escalates-in-downing-street-cat-war-10519193y

foxinsoxuk

nunu said:

Speedy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Speedy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What I want to know was what was a mid 30s lawyer (I believe with a hedge fund?) doing riding around on a scooter, like a drunken deliveroo delivery person?

I've seen worse.

Speeding around in a sports car I can definitely see, but a scooter?

You mean how is it possible to be speeding with a scooter ?

Now that's a Top Gear challenge.

She looks and sound too much like a tory woman tbh. She won't win nothern Labour seats imho.

I think that we need to consider the selectorate for this election, not the wider voters.

Bill Etheridge looks value to me. The Kipper Korbyn.

perdix

Charles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Speedy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What I want to know was what was a mid 30s lawyer (I believe with a hedge fund?) doing riding around on a scooter, like a drunken deliveroo delivery person?

I've seen worse.

Speeding around in a sports car I can definitely see, but a scooter?

My Dad was once arrested for speeding on a pedal bike.

Overtaking a panda car may have been a bad idea...

I can remember people being arrested for riding a bicycle "furiously".

HYUFD

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

oxfordsimon said:

HYUFD said:

James would be OK but she is from a middle class background and was raised in Ken, went to Rochester Grammar School and was a councillor in Surrey. She would help UKIP in some lower middle class Kent and Essex seats and areas like Eastleigh where she was a candidate but I don't think she would have the same appeal in Northern and working class Labour seats as Wolfe, who was raised in Moss Side and whose brother was a professional footballer. I also don't think these 'allegations' about him will have much traction beyond the liberal media

They aren't allegations - he was convicted and failed to register it when standing for PCC - thus breaking the law. That is a fact not an allegation.

Who cares? This is politics not the selection of the head of the Judiciary. The average white working class voter UKIP needs to target will not care he failed to register that he drunk a little too much when driving and standing as a candidate for a post virtually nobody votes for!

You have a pretty low opinion of UKIP voters if you think that they do not care about drunk drivers.

Did he kill anyone? Injure anyone? No. Yes he made a mistake but the stereotypical UKIP voter is a borderline alcoholic anyway!

Y0kel

I've said it yesterday but either Trump or Clinton has a soft layer to their support that I don't think anyone has yet homed in on. These are people who when polled say Trump or Clinton but won't bother their arse on polling day.

Question is, which one is it.

I'm curious regarding the position of Mike Pence. I'm not sure why but Republicans who would like a GOP president but can't have Trump surely will have words in Pence's ear with the aim of bending him. This a bitter rift in the GOP and I get the feeling that the GOP's own can do more damage to their own candidate than Clinton.

On an unrelated note. August is the major holiday month in Europe. Our wee pals in IS know this and it wouldn't surprise if they tried to make something major of it. This month has great potential. As for Al Qaeda, very quiet on the terrorising the West front for some time, can't last can it?

HYUFD

oxfordsimon said:

HYUFD said:

oxfordsimon said:

HYUFD said:

James would be OK but she is from a middle class background and was raised in Ken, went to Rochester Grammar School and was a councillor in Surrey. She would help UKIP in some lower middle class Kent and Essex seats and areas like Eastleigh where she was a candidate but I don't think she would have the same appeal in Northern and working class Labour seats as Wolfe, who was raised in Moss Side and whose brother was a professional footballer. I also don't think these 'allegations' about him will have much traction beyond the liberal media

They aren't allegations - he was convicted and failed to register it when standing for PCC - thus breaking the law. That is a fact not an allegation.

Who cares? This is politics not the selection of the head of the Judiciary. The average white working class voter UKIP needs to target will not care he failed to register that he drunk a little too much when driving and standing as a candidate for a post virtually nobody votes for!

Someone who has demonstrably broken electoral law is not fit to be leader of a Parish Council - let alone a political party

In your opinion, the average white working class voter could not care less about electoral law, they will care that Woolfe has far more in common with them than Corbyn and actually speaks about things they care about rather than rehashed polytechnic Marxism!

stjohn

Y0kel said:

I've said it yesterday but either Trump or Clinton has a soft layer to their support that I don't think anyone has yet homed in on. These are people who when polled say Trump or Clinton but won't bother their arse on polling day.

Question is, which one is it.

I'm curious regarding the position of Mike Pence. I'm not sure why but Republicans who would like a GOP president but can't have Trump surely will have words in Pence's ear with the aim of bending him. This a bitter rift in the GOP and I get the feeling that the GOP's own can do more damage to their own candidate than Clinton.

On an unrelated note. August is the major holiday month in Europe. Our wee pals in IS know this and it wouldn't surprise if they tried to make something major of it. This month has great potential. As for Al Qaeda, very quiet on the terrorising the West front for some time, can't last can it?

Yokel. Do you give Gary Johnson any chance? I'm on at 1000 with Betfair!

Thrak

nunu said:

Thrak said:

Probably the most damning part of the CBS poll (first time trying to embed a tweet, hope it works!) EDIT: Hmm, looks okay but not like a tweet.

Trump's support among self-ID'd conservatives in our @CBSNewsPoll is at 64%.
Bush in '04 exits - 84%
McCain in '08 - 78%
Romney in '12 -82%

— Steven Portnoy (@stevenportnoy) August 1, 2016

He has a big lead with the key Independents group.

Not recently, here leading with independents -

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/08/01/2016.post-dem.convention.pdf

"In a two-way head-to-head matchup, Clinton tops Trump 52% to 43%, and in a four-way matchup including third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, Clinton leads 45% to 37% with Johnson at 9% and Stein at 5%."

HYUFD

Charles said:

HYUFD said:

peter_from_putney said:

Surely, Woolfe should withdraw from the contest shouldn't he? Or don't standards in Public Life count for anything at all these days?

As a lawyer, he really shouldn't need prompting to take the correct course of action here. I just have a sneaking suspicion that the delay in submitting his nomination papers may not have been 100% accidental.

George W Bush had a drink driving conviction and it did not stop him winning 2 presidential elections, even if it cost him a little with evangelical voters in the 1st (and UKIP does not need to win the religious right to the same extent as the GOP)

It's the breach of electoral law that matters, not the drink driving conviction

Not in electoral terms, no working class voter is going to be put off because he did not complete the form for the PCC elections 100% correctly when virtually none of them vote in those elections anyway

Speedy

Some new post convention 2016 polls:

Georgia poll, SurveyUSA:

http://www.11alive.com/news/local/exclusive-poll-trump-holds-narrow-lead-over-clinton-in-georgia/285416138

Trump 46
Hillary 42
Johnson 5
Stein 2

Not much change.

CNN.ORC national:

Hillary 52 +7
Trump 43 -5

That's a very big bounce though.
Trump looks dead at the moment.

But the pattern in the states so far is that Hillary has gone way up in states that voted for Obama in 2012, while Trump is stable in states that voted for Romney, compared with the pre-convention picture.

But Trump still looks dead.
347 for Hillary 191 for Trump in E.V looks like the picture post-conventions.

Thrak

stjohn said:

Y0kel said:

I've said it yesterday but either Trump or Clinton has a soft layer to their support that I don't think anyone has yet homed in on. These are people who when polled say Trump or Clinton but won't bother their arse on polling day.

Question is, which one is it.

I'm curious regarding the position of Mike Pence. I'm not sure why but Republicans who would like a GOP president but can't have Trump surely will have words in Pence's ear with the aim of bending him. This a bitter rift in the GOP and I get the feeling that the GOP's own can do more damage to their own candidate than Clinton.

On an unrelated note. August is the major holiday month in Europe. Our wee pals in IS know this and it wouldn't surprise if they tried to make something major of it. This month has great potential. As for Al Qaeda, very quiet on the terrorising the West front for some time, can't last can it?

Yokel. Do you give Gary Johnson any chance? I'm on at 1000 with Betfair!

That CNN poll puts him on 9%, I suppose if Trump crashes and burns there's a fair chance he could pick up the 6% extra that he needs to get into the debates.

foxinsoxuk

Moses_ said:

Another serious punch up on Downing st.

Sky's Senior Political Correspondent Sophy Ridge said the escalation of the fighting had now become "worrying".

http://news.sky.com/story/violence-escalates-in-downing-street-cat-war-10519193y

Hammond has brought a gun to a knife fight:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/29/is-philip-hammond-about-to-move-his-cat-hating-dog-in-next-to-la/

Ishmael_X

HYUFD said:

oxfordsimon said:

HYUFD said:

oxfordsimon said:

HYUFD said:

James would be OK but she is from a middle class background and was raised in Ken, went to Rochester Grammar School and was a councillor in Surrey. She would help UKIP in some lower middle class Kent and Essex seats and areas like Eastleigh where she was a candidate but I don't think she would have the same appeal in Northern and working class Labour seats as Wolfe, who was raised in Moss Side and whose brother was a professional footballer. I also don't think these 'allegations' about him will have much traction beyond the liberal media

They aren't allegations - he was convicted and failed to register it when standing for PCC - thus breaking the law. That is a fact not an allegation.

Who cares? This is politics not the selection of the head of the Judiciary. The average white working class voter UKIP needs to target will not care he failed to register that he drunk a little too much when driving and standing as a candidate for a post virtually nobody votes for!

Someone who has demonstrably broken electoral law is not fit to be leader of a Parish Council - let alone a political party

In your opinion, the average white working class voter could not care less about electoral law, they will care that Woolfe has far more in common with them than Corbyn and actually speaks about things they care about rather than rehashed polytechnic Marxism!

He has to get past the NEC and the membership before the question arises what the voters think of him.

HYUFD

Guido Readers back Woolfe by 66%, James second on 14%, Duffy third on 6%. 5000 votes were cast

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/760222509169991682

Y0kel

stjohn said:

Y0kel said:

I've said it yesterday but either Trump or Clinton has a soft layer to their support that I don't think anyone has yet homed in on. These are people who when polled say Trump or Clinton but won't bother their arse on polling day.

Question is, which one is it.

I'm curious regarding the position of Mike Pence. I'm not sure why but Republicans who would like a GOP president but can't have Trump surely will have words in Pence's ear with the aim of bending him. This a bitter rift in the GOP and I get the feeling that the GOP's own can do more damage to their own candidate than Clinton.

On an unrelated note. August is the major holiday month in Europe. Our wee pals in IS know this and it wouldn't surprise if they tried to make something major of it. This month has great potential. As for Al Qaeda, very quiet on the terrorising the West front for some time, can't last can it?

Yokel. Do you give Gary Johnson any chance? I'm on at 1000 with Betfair!

Only to hurt someone else. I think that you got some very high levels of inflexible support for both of the big two that means he hasn't a hope at this point. Its the maybe 4% soft layer in Clinton or Trumps support that I wonder about. These are not swing voters just all talk no action types or lack of enthusiasm voters.

Charles

perdix said:

Charles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Speedy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What I want to know was what was a mid 30s lawyer (I believe with a hedge fund?) doing riding around on a scooter, like a drunken deliveroo delivery person?

I've seen worse.

Speeding around in a sports car I can definitely see, but a scooter?

My Dad was once arrested for speeding on a pedal bike.

Overtaking a panda car may have been a bad idea...

I can remember people being arrested for riding a bicycle "furiously".

Less nerve-wracking then when he was slung into an Algerian jail for trying to assassinate the President (he wasn't really, but he did try to stow-away on President's yacht )

Speedy

Thrak said:

stjohn said:

Y0kel said:

I've said it yesterday but either Trump or Clinton has a soft layer to their support that I don't think anyone has yet homed in on. These are people who when polled say Trump or Clinton but won't bother their arse on polling day.

Question is, which one is it.

I'm curious regarding the position of Mike Pence. I'm not sure why but Republicans who would like a GOP president but can't have Trump surely will have words in Pence's ear with the aim of bending him. This a bitter rift in the GOP and I get the feeling that the GOP's own can do more damage to their own candidate than Clinton.

On an unrelated note. August is the major holiday month in Europe. Our wee pals in IS know this and it wouldn't surprise if they tried to make something major of it. This month has great potential. As for Al Qaeda, very quiet on the terrorising the West front for some time, can't last can it?

Yokel. Do you give Gary Johnson any chance? I'm on at 1000 with Betfair!

That CNN poll puts him on 9%, I suppose if Trump crashes and burns there's a fair chance he could pick up the 6% extra that he needs to get into the debates.

Forget it, Johnson will not get more than 11%, after the conventions like always the 3rd parties have been squeezed.

Deez Nuts gets 11% and he's a fictional candidate, tells you what the maximum for any 3rd party can be if they didn't had any unpopular policies.

ToryJim

Speedy said:

Some new post convention 2016 polls:

Georgia poll, SurveyUSA:

http://www.11alive.com/news/local/exclusive-poll-trump-holds-narrow-lead-over-clinton-in-georgia/285416138

Trump 46
Hillary 42
Johnson 5
Stein 2

Not much change.

CNN.ORC national:

Hillary 52 +7
Trump 43 -5

That's a very big bounce though.
Trump looks dead at the moment.

But the pattern in the states so far is that Hillary has gone way up in states that voted for Obama in 2012, while Trump is stable in states that voted for Romney, compared with the pre-convention picture.

But Trump still looks dead.
347 for Hillary 191 for Trump in E.V looks like the picture post-conventions.

If in November Hillary beats Trump by 52-43 then she is probably going to beat Obama's 08 ECV score. There is simply not much more juice in the lemon in reliably Dem states to pop a margin like that and not be bringing states into play.

HYUFD

Ishmael_X said:

HYUFD said:

oxfordsimon said:

HYUFD said:

oxfordsimon said:

HYUFD said:

James would be OK but she is from a middle class background and was raised in Ken, went to Rochester Grammar School and was a councillor in Surrey. She would help UKIP in some lower middle class Kent and Essex seats and areas like Eastleigh where she was a candidate but I don't think she would have the same appeal in Northern and working class Labour seats as Wolfe, who was raised in Moss Side and whose brother was a professional footballer. I also don't think these 'allegations' about him will have much traction beyond the liberal media

They aren't allegations - he was convicted and failed to register it when standing for PCC - thus breaking the law. That is a fact not an allegation.

Who cares? This is politics not the selection of the head of the Judiciary. The average white working class voter UKIP needs to target will not care he failed to register that he drunk a little too much when driving and standing as a candidate for a post virtually nobody votes for!

Someone who has demonstrably broken electoral law is not fit to be leader of a Parish Council - let alone a political party

In your opinion, the average white working class voter could not care less about electoral law, they will care that Woolfe has far more in common with them than Corbyn and actually speaks about things they care about rather than rehashed polytechnic Marxism!

He has to get past the NEC and the membership before the question arises what the voters think of him.

That Guido poll (Guido readers are typical Kippers) suggests he still has a strong chance of winning the membership if he gets past the NEC

Essexit

Traditional Labour voters in the North have to be the low-hanging fruit for the Kippers now, Woolfe or no Woolfe. Plenty were willing to vote UKIP in GE2015 when it was led by a privately-educated stockbroker. Grammar school girl Diane James could do at least as well.

If Labour continues to look out-of-touch and divided (it will), Leave voters in those areas will surely switch to UKIP, perhaps pushing them over the line in seats where they placed second before. Diane would also be able to win over Tory voters in Kent and Essex in a way that Woolfe couldn't.

A kind of populist version of the Lib Dems, triangulating between the other two parties and putting out different messages in different parts of the country.

dr_spyn

Cameron's list o peers running into trouble.

However, this made me laugh.

https://twitter.com/Cartoon4sale/status/760227566754099200