politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » WH2016 – updated polling and betting
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » WH2016 – updated polling and betting
My WH2016 National polling table. I'll be doing key state surveys soon. pic.twitter.com/re3wHD9yA0
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Man, this 25-year effort to humanize Hillary is the most expensive public works project since the Hoover Dam.
They've been beyond wrong at every turn. Most come from the liberal left which doesn't help either. I suspect this election has a Brexit surprise in store.
I could feel CNN smiling during their Hillary speech analysis. The enormous sneering at Trump is very misplaced given who he's demolished along way.
And this should be factored into anyone's betting analysis.
http://praxis.ink/2016/07/does-political-advertising-actually-work-not-really
"Contrary to the consultants’ claims, however, empirical research conducted by political scientists shows that such advertising campaigns are not nearly as effective as many donors have been led to believe—especially in presidential campaigns.
This year is a unique one in political history in that it will mark the first time ever that many high-dollar GOP donors have decided to opt out of a presidential election. If they had bothered to look at the political science scholarship about campaign advertising, they’d have made this decision long ago.
There are five reasons why:..."
Is this why the hundreds of millions aren't hurting Trump too?
What I'd be looking for is a real sense of how Trump is going down in the battleground states on the ground, where his Alpha America-first message may gain more traction, and from those who don't have a particular pipe to play.
Importantly viewing figures 15% higher for DNC than RNC.
Such a field of challengers.
Bernie delegate told me "microaggressions" kept them from disrupting historic speech. Many in tears after "being marginalized" #DemsInPhilly
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Generation Snowflake get their first experience of US party politics.
That's irrelevant. What is relevant is determining through sober fact based analysis whether he's going to win or not and whether the current odds are value or not.
True Britain will need huge amounts of electrical power in the near future, but Cameron's government didn't have the balls to make a decision back in 2010 and now the old time NPP's have had their day.
You can say what you like about the French but they built their NPP's at a good price and when every expert said that building them was a terrible idea. So much for experts!
BTW the BBC has given up reporting real business news and instead as gone full on Project talk down the economy because Brexit.
Totally irrelevant. But it does show why he's still betting value.
And all the money and time spent on youngsters to turn out? The extending of the registration window by HMG in the hope to get more of them?
I think there's selective amnesia here post-result. Hillary2016 is making many of the same mistakes.
We probably won't need 'huge amounts' of electricity. Domestic electricity consumption has been falling, due to EU legislation, and this could continue. (Germany expects its consumption to drop 25% by 2050.)
The UK's done everything possible to block this EU legislation. Now we're probably out, ironically, the legislation will be more easily passed. If the UK stays in the Single Market the new appliances sold here will probably almost all meet the EU's efficiency standards, over which the Daily Express et al will have no say at all. (Ha ha.)
(1) The young ABs didn't turn out as hoped but the oldies did (which the more sober of us expected)
(2) The poorer working classes did (and far fewer predicted that) and the trends in this were disguised by a general nebulous debate about ABC1s beat C2DEs
EDIT: just googled it, no he doesn't.
A branch is normally the cheapest way to acquire new business, cheaper than using the internet which costs about £300 to recruit each new current account customer.
Recruiting customers via newspapers or the internet tends only to work in areas where that bank has a branch.
A secondary purpose of a bank is for people to pay in cash and draw out cash although the later can be done via ATMs for smaller amounts.
So it is in a bank's interest to have a big network of branches. But banks only need the same coverage as competitors to maintain market share. So if the biggest bank reduces its network, others are tempted to do the same.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/jun/22/the-sun-queen-brexit-front-page
In future there will be a whole branch of scholarship on how he did it.
- Lib Dem wipe-out and Conservative Majority
- Purdah being built into 2015 Referendum Act
- Discrediting (Blair, Mandelson & Clegg) or tragic death of big hitters (Charles Kennedy)
- Election of equivocating Corbyn
- Merkel being both overestimated and underwhelming
- Crouching tiger, hidden Juncker
- Cameron's poor negotiating strategy
- Nothing to offer on immigration
- Cameron/Cooper OTT Project Terror
- Osborne's fiscal prattery
- Terrible optics for Cameron on forming an alliance on the Left
- BSE not getting it on "experts"
- Obama hitting Leave in the solar plexus
- Scoring Boris and Gove as the headline Leavers, not Farage
- A innovative and ruthless Leave strategy 'take back control'
A book should be written about it and, indeed, several will.
A bank branch provides reassurance that if things go wrong there is someone locally you can go and seek help from. Arguing with a remote bank HQ over the telephone can result in being cut off!
Etc.
- knowing how to belittle his opponents with a true-enough name call. Crooked Hillary, Little Rubio, Ly'in Ted. There was a kernal of truth in them all that works. Defining your opponent before they do is PR 101.
- saying the unsayable. We saw Farage do that very many times and dragging the agenda onto his ground. Look at today's Daily News frontpage - Team Hillary paper saying she'd make *America Greater*. Fail.
- being totally available to the media and making the narrative. Say something outrageous enough to get the airtime/drown out your rivals then pivot onto something a bit less OTT once you've killed them off
- Talk strong and upbeat. Be Mr America Will Be Great Again. Don't pretend to be what you aren't. Arrive in your 1% jet plane and say it's a good thing - don't be ashamed for a second. Parade your model wife and children. You can be me or a teeny bit of it. It's his whole Apprentice persona as political agenda.
The Washington Establishment look wooden, entitled and elitist without justification in comparison.
Brexit / Corbyn/ Trump/ Sanders picked up significant support from those who dont normally vote because no-one was answering the questions they want answered.
We hear a lot on here from the likes of Big JohnOwls and others who are fed up with Labour not representing the WWC. I think Sanders probably tapped into that feeling a lot in the Primaries.
Trump will get out people who dont normally vote.( he has done better in the primaries than expected)
Corbyn will get out people who dont normally vote (his by-election results have been better than expected)
The question is will they alienate more than they attract?
The Labour party members were cross with the Blairite narrative and wanted change=Corbyn
The UK was cross with the EU=Brexit
Greece=Syrizia
Italy=Pepe Grillo
France=LePenn
Etc
The US is crazy cross and wants change.
Love or Loath him-nobody expects Trump to be the continuity candidate.
Anyone seen the source?
But I dont think people are in the mood for "the least worst option"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicine_show
http://www.britishfuture.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Disbanding-the-tribes-report.July-2016.pdf
The TLDR: Remain did as well as it could do to pull in 'soft' Remainers. Leave won as it expanded the electorate - people voting for the first time or for the first time in decades.
@foxinsoxuk - my NHS paperwork will be harder if we Brexit.
@SouthamObserver - my sales conferences will be a bit more difficult to organise if we Brexit, but I manage fine outside the EU
@TOPPING - my City investments may be adversely effected and I'm really well off BTW
@Richard_Nabavi - I'm far too clever for all this and agree with Topping
@felix - I'm an expat living in Spain and you should do what suits me personally - and you're all stupid if you don't
@edmundintokyo - I've lived in Tokyo for a very long time, and talk a lot about ideal theoretical models re immigration and liberal politics. I have no idea what living in the UK is like bar a flying visit home.
I didn't see many convincing reasons to Remain in the EU in their posts.
It was the disenfranchised 2.4m that changed the vote. These people were DNVers and hadn't for 20yrs in many cases. No Party spoke for them - and this was their opportunity to kick the Estabishment up the arse.
People in LabourLand whose MP wanted Remain gave them a massive black eye. Same in ToryLand to a much lesser degree. Everyone's vote counted and they said so with gusto.
Almost every country went on expensive nuclear building programmes post the oil shock at the beginning of the 1970s, backed up by every expert around. The difference between France and everywhere else was:
1. France standardised on a single reactor design (we, on the other hand, had about eight totally different designs)
2. France built enough nuclear capacity to not just cover baseload but most of peak
The idea that has been cost free is - of course - absolute rubbish. The returns on the French power plants have been no better than anyone else's - the difference is that the gap between cost of funding and revenues was hidden in the French government's books rather than being obvious to all.
It's Berkeley vs Harlan County, Kentucky. I thought Harlan was a made-up place in Justified. It isn't.
"And more recent history hasn't been too far removed from some Justified plot lines, local fans pointed out.
In the early 1980s, for instance, then-Sheriff Paul L. Browning Jr. was convicted of plotting to kill political enemies.
When Browning tried to regain the office in 2002, a deputy who was taking payoffs from a drug dealer provided a gun and a $1,000 payment to have Browning murdered.
The deputy, Roger D. Hall — son of a longtime county magistrate — apparently was afraid that if Browning won, he would fire Hall, cutting off his access to drug bribes. Hall pleaded guilty and is serving 30 years in prison."
Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/entertainment/tv/article44150238.html#storylink=cpy